THU NHAP TUT DAU KHI VA CD HOI CHO PHAT TRIEN NONG NGHIEP TRUNG DONG
Bdi Nhat Quang*
T
^rung Dong trong suo't qua trinh phdt trien thdi gian vaa qua vdn luon Id diem nong cua the gidi xet ta nhiiu khia canh khdc nhau:phdt trien kinh te, the che chinh tri, van de an ninh vd chien tranh cue bo. Bdi viet ndy se phdc hog. ro net hcfn ve vdn di kinh te'ndi bd.t cua khu vUc trong giai doan hien tai vd du dodn vd cdc kich bdn phdt trien thdi gian tdi: do Id van de thu nhap ta ddu khi trong tUcfng quan vdi dinh hUdng phdt trien nong nghiep.
1. Sure manh dau khi
Viec xac dinh cu t h e r a n h gidi dia ly cua Trung Ddng cho tdi nay v i n chUa dat dUpc nhieu y kien ddng t h u a n , nhUng hau het cac ben q u a n t a m deu ngam hieu day la mpt khu viic dia ly dac biet m a n g y nghia ket ndi lich sU, kinh te, van hoa gifla ba
*Tie'n sT, Ph6 vien tnicmg
Vien Nghien cihi Chdu Phi v^ Trung Ddng
chau luc A - Au - Phi. Thiic trang phat trien trong npi tai khu vUc Trung Ddng the hien sii phan hoa sau sac vdi nhieu khac biet va chenh lech dang ke gifla cac quo'c gia, dac biet la nhflng khac biet ve thu nhap, trinh dp phat trien kinh te, dn dinh chinh tri va phat trien xa hoi.
Mpt trong nhflng nguyen nhan lam nen sfl ndi bat cua mpt so' qud'c gia Trung Ddng trong tfldng quan vdi cac qud'c gia khac chinh la sfl phan bd ngudn tai nguyen thien nhien khdng ddng deu va dau khi - ngudn tai nguyen quan trpng nha't cua khu vflc nay - da trd t h a n h mau chd't cua mpi van de lien quan tdi khoang each va vi the ciia cac qud'c gia hoac nhdm qude gia trong khu vflc. Vdi each tiep can xem xet cac qude gia Trung Ddng tfl goc dp tiem n a n g dau khi va thu n h a p tfl ngudn tai nguyen chien Iflpc nay, ngay lap tflc cd the k h a n g dinh t i m quan trpng ciia khu vflc dang quan ly tdi 66% trfl Ifldng dau khi
Tap chi nghien cUu CllAc PHI & TBC:^G Bdi\G sd 03 (43) thang 3/2009
BuiNhgt Quang Thu nhdp tij dau khi vd co hdi.
toan cau'. Mdt diem d a n g chu y nfla khi sach p h a t trien k i n h te va q u a n diem dau xem xet ve tiem n a n g dau khi T r u n g Ddng tU, sU d u n g ngudn t h u tfl d a u khi cua la viec ngudn tai n g u y e n khdng id nay chinh p h u cac qude gia T r u n g Ddng da p h a n ldn n a m trong quyen q u a n ly cua cac dUde dac biet chu y, xem xet t r e n g chinh qud'c gia nhU A r a p Xeut, Irac, Iran, UAEs, sach dd'i n g o a i c u a n h i e u qud'c gia ben Cd Oet, Libi... va ve cd b a n cd the p h a n ngeai. Cd le dieu l a m n e n sii nei b a t cua Idai cac qud'c gia dau k h i T r u n g Ddng ndy cac qud'c gia T r u n g Ddng c h i n h la ngudn t h u n h a p k h d n g id m a hp t h u dUpc t r o n g n h i e u n a m q u a nhd k h a i t h a c va xua't k h a u d a u . R a t n h i e u dd'i tac nUde ngoai da lien tuc h u d n g ve T r u n g Ddng va dac biet q u a n t a m tdi c h i n h sach d a u tU cua cac qud'c gia n a y do moi q u y e t d i n h dau t u hp dUa r a deu cd t h e gay r a nhUng a n h h u d n g d a n g ke tdi que'c gia tiep n h a n n g u d n t a i c h i n h . Bieu do 1 dUa r a m i n h hoa ve bien ddng gia ddu va tdc dp t a n g trUdng t a i s a n d nUde ngoai cua n h d m cac qud'c gia GCC t a i k h u viic T r u n g Ddng.
t h a n h hai nhdm:
- Nhdm cae qud'c gia thupc Hoi ddng Hdp tac Vdng vinh (GCC) bao gdm 6 t h a n h vien: B a r a n h , Cd Oet, Oman, Cata, Arap Xeut vd UAEs.
- Nhdm cac qud'c gia dau khi q u a n trpng khac cua T r u n g Ddng bao gdm: Iran, Irac, Libi.
TU n h a n dinh neu t r e n ve cae qud'c gia cd vai trd va t a m a n h hUdng ldn d k h u viic lien quan tdi cae boat ddng khai thac vd xua't k h a u dau, nhieu va'n de ve chinh
B i e u d d 1. B i e n d o n g g i a d a u v a t a i s a n d n i i d c n g o a i c i i a c a c q u o c g i a G C C
Tai san o nuoc ngoai (ty USD)
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Gia dau tho (U.SD)
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S',M, | ' . ' | i • , . . ;•.•., ']'\^ • ' . " . M , T I I . ! I;. . 1 . !•• M': . I '
Ngudn: Theo bdo cdo ciia McKinsey & Company, 5, 2008.
22 Tap chi nghien cifu CllAl PHI & TBI >G BOIN'G sd 03 (43) thang 3/2009
Thu nhdp tu dau khi vd co hdi. Bui Nhdt Quang
Sd lieu ve ngudn t h u va tich luy tai san dUPng vdi quy md GDP cua cac nen kinh d nude ngoai cua cac qude gia T r u n g Ddng te ldn h a n g dau tren the gidi nhU Anh la dac biet cd y nghia vd t r e n thiic te da hoac Phap. Ben ngoai nhdm GCC. cac the hien d h a n g loat cae dong thai dau tU qude gia ndi bat khac cua Trung Ddng la ndi bat tren k h a p toan cau: Dubai mua cd Libi, Iran, Irac vdi trfl lUdng dau Udc tinh phieu cua Sony, Cata vd Dubai canh t r a n h lan lUdt 41,5 ty thung, 89,7 ty thung va nhau de mua lai cac san giao dich ehUng 112,5 ty thung^ cung dang the hien sflc khoan toan cau, Abu Dhabi bdm nhieu ty manh dau khi cua minh vdi anh hUdng USD ddu t u vad Citigroup... Ta't ca deu la dang ke trong khu vUc va tham chi la d nhflng da'u hieu the hien sii giau c6 cua cap dp toan cau.
cac qud'c gia T r u n g Ddng va t h a m vpng b a n h trudng ve m a t k i n h te cua hp vdi tU each la cac dd'i tae chu chd't t r e n thi trUdng tai chinh toan cau. Bieu dd 1 cho tha'y trong giai doan tU 2002 den 2006, tai san nUde ngoai cua GCC da t a n g chdng mat vdi ty le 131% va dat con so' khdng id khoang 2000 ty USD vao n a m 2006. Day la khdi lupng tai san ra't dang ne tUdng
Bieu dd 2 da dUa ra 4 kich ban ve thu nhap tU dau khi cua cae qude gia GCC trong giai doan tU nay den ndm 2020 diia tren cd sd cae mfle gia dau tho khac nhau giao dong tfl 30USD den 100 USD mot t h u n g dau. Tinh toan theo cae kich ban da dUa den ket qua la tdng thu nhap tU dau khi cua GCC cd the len tdi mfle cao nha't Id 8,8 ngan ty USD vao nam 2020.
B i e u d o 2. B o n k i c h b a n t h u n h a p tii d a u k h i ciia GCC
Ddn vi: ngdn ty USD
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Ngudn: Theo bdo cdo cua McKinsey & Company, 5. 2008.
Tap chi nghien cUu C H A C PHI A T B O G Bd-^G sd 03 (43) thang 3/2009 23
Bui Nhqt Quang Thu nhdp tu ddu l<hi vd co hdi..
Du la theo kich ban gia dau nao di nfla thi sii giau cd ciia cac quo'c gia vung Vinh vdn se lien tuc tang len trong giai doan den nam 2020 va khi lay can cfl gia dau la 70USD/thiing thi tdng ngudn thu tich tu ciia GCC cung len tdi 6,2 ngan ty USD vao nam 2020 - tflc la cad ga'p 3 lan sd tien hp thu dfldc trdng cac nam tfl 1993 den 2006.
Sd lieu ke tren la het sflc dang quan tam khi thflc te giai ddan trUdc dd cho tha'y mpt phan dang ke len tdi hdn 50% ngudn thu tit dau khi ciia cac quo'c gia Trung Ddng da dUdc st( dung de dau tu ra ben ngdai. Dieu nay cd nghia rdng quyet dinh dau tfl cua cac nha lanh dao Trung Ddng trong nhieu nam tdi se cd sflc nang mang tam cd toan cau.
2. Nong nghiep, dat canh tac va li/dng thuc
Tfldng phan vdi sfl giau cd ve tai nguyen dau khi, cac qud'c gia Trung Ddng da va dang gap phai rat nhieu khd khan trong phat trien nong nghiep, duy tri dien tich da't dai cd the canh tac dfldc va tfl dd dam bad dii ngudn Ifldng thflc phuc vu nhu cau quoc npi. Vdi nhflng dien bien ma the gidi da chflng kien trong nam 2008 ve thieu hut ngudn cung ndng san va bien ddng gia lUdng thflc thi mpt van de da dfldc canh bao tfl lau tai Trung Dong dfldng nhfl cd the trd thanh sU that: dd la sfl thieu hut da't canh tac va cuoc khiing hdang Ifldng thflc.
Khu vflc Trung Ddng giau cd thflc te la mpt trong nhflng ndi ngheo nan nha't xet
ve tieu chi ngudn nfldc ngpt va dat ndng nghiep. Theng ke ciia To chflc Nong Lfldng Lien hdp qud'c (FAO) cho thay kho'i Ifldng nfldc ngpt binh quan dau ngUdi cua Trung Dong hien nay chi dat 1000 m^/nam so vdi mfle trung binh ciia the gidi la 7000 m^/nam. Va'n de nghiem trpng hdn nfla la Cdn Sd' nay dfl kien se giam kheang 30%
vao nam 2020 do nguyen nhan bien doi khi hau toan cau va toe dp tang trfldng dan sd qua cao ciia Trung Dong. So' lieu thd'ng ke cho thay dan so' tai Trung Dong nam 2007 da len tdi 364 trieu ngfldi, tflc la tang gap 3 lan so vdi con so' ciia nam 1950 va tdc dp tang dan so' van chfla cd dau hieu cham lai khien cho cac cd quan thong ke trong khu vflc deu dii doan dan sd^
Trung Dong cd the len tdi 450 trieu ngfldi vao nam 2020.
Nhfl vay, thflc trang phat trien nong nghiep Trung Ddng cho tha'y khu vflc nay dang phai dfldng dau vdi cac van de thflc sU khd khan: thieu nfldc canh tac, han han ked dai, dan sd' gia tang va dien tich dat canh tac ngay cang thu hep. Hau qua la thieu hut Ifldng thflc nghiem" trpng va khu viic Trung Dong trd nen rat de hi tdn thfldng trfldc cac tac dpng ciia sfl thieu hut ngudn cung ca'p nong san tren the gidi.
Hien nay, hau het cac qude gia Trung Dong deu phai nhap khau Ifldng thUc phuc vu cho nhu cau tieu thu npi dia. Trong mua vu 2008 - 2009, Bao cao ciia Bp Nong nghiep My cho thay Iran se phai nhap khau khoang 1,8 trieu tan lua my cua My.
Ngoai ra Iran ciing se phai nhap kh^u
Tap chi nghien cUu CiiAc PHI & TRCI\G BdiMG so 03 (43) thang 3/2009
Thu nhdp tu ddu khf vd co hdi. Bui Nhqt Quang
khoang 1,5 trieu ta'n Ifldng thflc tfl cac ngudn khac. Tfldng tu n h u Iran, cae qud'c gia khac n h u Arap Xeut, Ai Cap, Irac...
cung dang phai n h a p k h a u ngay cang nhieu nong san de dap flng nhu cau cua dan chung. Td chflc P h a t trien Ndng nghiep Arap Ude t i n h r a n g cac quoc gia Arap se phai n h a p k h a u lUdng thiic tri gia tu 35 - 40 ty USD mdi n a m trong giai doan 2009 - 2010 va ddi vdi mpt so' qud'c gia vung Vinh, 90%) n h u cau tieu t h u lUdng thiic trong nUde dupe dap Ung bang cac san pham n h a p khau•^ Xi Ri cho tdi ndm 2005 van la qud'c gia xua't k h a u Ida my nhUng ke tfl 2006 den nay da bat dau khong dap flng du n h u cau trong nfldc va phai n h a p k h a u lua my tfl Bungari. Cach day khdng lau, Irac van duy tri tdt kha nang tfl cung tfl cap ve Ifldng thflc nhUng den nay da khdng dam dUdng ndi nhu cau lUdng thiic ngdy cang gia t a n g va trd t h a n h nude n h a p k h a u lUdng thiic ldn vdi cac hpp ddng n h a p k h a u ddi b a n ky ket vdi Oxtraylia, My vd P h a p . Ddi vdi cac qude gia t h d n h vien GCC, sii giau cd dat dupe nhd xuat k h a u dau dUdng nhU van chua dam bad dupe cho hp kha n a n g phat trien ndng nghiep mpt each ben vUng do cac ban che ve dieu kien canh tac la khdng the khac phuc dUpc. Ket qua ta't yeu v i n la sii phu thudc n a n g ne vao lUPng thiic n h a p khau.
3. Van de va giai phap
So sanh hai linh viic kinh te quan trpng cua T r u n g Ddng la boat dpng khai thac.
xua't k h a u dau khi va phat trien nong nghiep da cho thay nhieu dien bien tUdng phan, mang tinh trai chieu. Ce the n h a n dien met so' va'n de dang chu y bao gdm:
- Ngudn Ipi n h u a n ma cac chinh phu Trung Dong thu ve tfl xua't khau dau khi la ra't ldn va da gdp p h a n quan trpng giup hp xay dflng xd hoi phat trien, thinh vflpng.
- Trai ngflde vdi sfl giau cd tfl dau khi, ndng nghiep Trung Ddng gap ra't nhieu b a n che trong dinh hUdng phat trien va hdu het cac qude gia trong khu vUe nay deu phu thupc n a n g ne vao lUdng thiic nhap khau.
- Mpt van de khac phat sinh la sU phan chia cua cai trong xa hdi Trung Dong lai the hien sii mat can doi nghiem trpng.
Ngudn Ipi tU dau khi dudng nhU ehUa dupe sfl dung mpt each phu hdp cho phat trien linh viic kinh te cot yeu cua qude gia Id ndng nghiep va san xuat lUdng thiic.
Cac van de tren da dan tdi thiic trang la quy md vd sii ddng gdp cua ndng nghiep tai Trung Dong tUdng doi khiem ton. So' lieu cua FAO cho thay ndng nghiep chi ddng gdp ehUa tdi 6,2% GDP tai cac qud'c gia Arap va xet trong bdi canh cua khu viic nay thi day chUa phai Id mpt cd ca'u kinh te phu hpp giup hp dam bao dupe nhu cau tieu dung nong san npi dia. Ket qua la bao cao nam 2008 cua FAO cho tha'y khoang 13% dan so' cac nUde Aiap dang d tinh t r a n g thieu dinh dUdng. Day khdng phai Id ty le cae sd vdi mUc trung
Tap chi nghien ciru CilAc Pill A TBC^G Bdl^C sd 03 (43) thang 3/2009 25
Bui Nhqt Quang Thu nhdp tu ddu khi vd co hdi.
binh cua the gidi nhUng so vdi tiem ndng k i n h te va k h a n a n g tai chinh ciia T r u n g Dong thi ty le n a y cho tha'y n h i e u ba't cap t r e n g cd ca'u k i n h te va chinh sach p h a t trien qud'c gia.
NhUng khd k h a n trong viec dam bao ngudn lUdng thiic phuc vu n h u cau npi dia da khien che cac qud'c gia T r u n g Dong hudng tdi nhieu giai p h a p mdi vdi nhieu y tUdng dang chu y. Cac qud'c gia cd tiem ndng tai chinh ldn nhU A r a p Xeut, UAEs, Cata... dang thiic hien cae vdng dam p h a n nghiem tuc vdi mpt so' que'c gia cd nhieu da't dai va ngudn nUde de mua hoac thue ddt nong nghiep, td chflc c a n h tac n h a m dap flng n h u cau ndng san cua minh. Cac chinh phu T r u n g Ddng da va dang tiep can nhieu ddi tae n h u Xu Dang, Uganda, Pakixtan, Thai Lan, Viet N a m de dam p h a n ve van de nay.
Y tUdng ve mua heac t h u e da't ndng nghiep d nUde ngddi da vd dang dUde trien khai t r e n thiic te, khien cho nhflng ndm gan day da dien r a cac cudc chay dua dau t u da't t r e n k h a p t h e gidi. Cae qud'c gia T r u n g Ddng tim kiem dia diem dau tU da't d k h a p mpi ndi va thong t i n ban dau cho tha'y Arap Xeut da sd hUu khdang 1,6 t r i e u h a da't n d n g n g h i e p d nUdc ngdai.
K h o n g chiu k e m c a n h , U A E s c u n g sd hflu k h d a n g 1,28 t r i e u h a t a i c h a u P h i va P a k i x t a n . Libi t h i d a n g d a m p h a n vdi U c r a i n a de dd'i d a u va k h i ddt lay k h d a n g 250.000 h a da't c a n h tac. Thd'ng ke sd bp cua FAO chi r a r a n g t r e n toan t h e gidi da cd hdn 8 t r i e u h a da't c a n h tae dupe b a n hoac cho nUdc ngoai t h u e vd r i e n g dd'i vdi cac qud'c gia T r u n g Ddng, dUdng n h u liia chpn n a y cua hp la s a n g sudt de Cdi da't n d n g n g h i e p la dia ehi d a u t u d u n g ddn che ddng tdi c h i n h cd dupe t u xua't k h a u d a u .
N h u vay, bUde dau cd the n h a n dinh r a n g mpt sii can b a n g chien lUpc mdi da dupe xac lap gifla mpt ben Id ngudn tai chinh khdng id ma cac quo'c gia xua't k h a u dau T r u n g Dong d a n g t h u ve va ben kia la sflc ep dang ke cua dan c h u n g ddi hdi phai thoa m a n n h u cau tieu t h u lUdng thiic trong nUdc. Dieu nay da tao r a cd hoi hdp tae gifla cac qud'c gia cd Ipi t h e t r o n g s a n xua't n d n g n g h i e p vdi cac quo'c gia cd tiem liic t a i c h i n h h u n g h a u t a i T r u n g Dong. Viet N a m h i e n la qud'c gia cd t h e m a n h ve s a n xua't n d n g n g h i e p va xet tfl gde dp nay, t h i trUdng T r u n g Ddng trd n e n h e t sflc t i e m n d n g va ra't c a n dflpc chu y d u n g mfle.
Tap chi nghien even CilAlJ P l i i & TR1J]\G Bd^G so 03 (43) thang 3/2009
Thu nhdp tu dau khi vd co hdi... Bui Nhqt Quang
Chu thich:
' Theo bao cao OPEC Secretariat Report, 2007
^ l/dc tinh cua European Institute for Research on Mediterranean and Euro-Arab Cooperation, 2007.
^ Theo so lieu eda The Arab Organization for Agricultural Development, Annual Report 2008.
Tai lieu tham khao
1. Annual Report 2008, T h e Arab Organization for Agricultural Development.
2. OPEC S e c r e t a r i a t Report, 2007.
3. Petroleum Report 2007, European Institute for Research on Mediterranean and Euro-Arab Cooperation.
4. The Coming Oil Windfall in the Gulf McKinsey & Company Report, 5. 2008.
5. Cac bao cao p h a t trien nong nghiep cua FAO.
Tap chi nghien cUu CilAc Pill A TBC^G Bd:MG sd 03 (43) thang 3/2009 27
