QUANH tool I4G0AI ^H i
^QUAN HE CHINH TRj - AN NINH
GlOA NHAT BAN VAl TRUNG QU6c HIEN NAY
TAG DONG KHU VfC VA VIET NAM
NCS. TRAN HOANG LONG Vien Nghien citu An Do vd Tdy Nam A
Tom tdl: Su van dpng ciia moi quan he Nhat Ban va Tmng Quoc, hai nudc Idn va quan trpng nhat d Dong A da va dang tac dpng da chieu, sau sdc den sy phat ttien cua hai nudc, ma con anh huong ddn chinh sach doi npi va doi ngoai cua cac nudc trong khu vyc, trong do co Vi^t Nam. Hien nay, trong quan he chinh trj - an ninh giiTa hai quoc gia nay dang ton tai khong it van de nan giai nhu: ttanh gidnh anh huong doi vdi khu vuc, tranh chap chii quyen bien dao, ttanh cdi lien quan tdi van dd sach giao khoa Hch su Nhat Ban, van de Thii tudng Shinzo Abe di thdm den Yasukuni, van de Dai Loan,...
Nhung vdn de neu tren khien cho moi quan hg chinh trj giiJa hai quoc gia rai vao tinh trang "lanh gid".
Tren co so phan tich nhiJTig vdn dS trfn, bai vilt se trinh bay 'ihihig tac dpng ciia moi quan he nay d6i vdi khu vyc, qua do dua ra mpt so gpi y cho chinh sach doi igoai ciia Viet Nam doi vdi hai cudng quoc khu vyc Dong A nay.
Tir khoa: Quan he Tmng - Nhat, chinh trj - an ninh, tac dpn;>
1. Khai quat ve nhihig vdn d l dang ndi Ien trong quan he chinh tri -an ninh Nhdt - Trung hipn nay
1.1. Tranh gidnh v/ the chinh trj d Ddng A
Nam 2010, GDP cua Trung Qudc dat miic 5,88 ngan ty USD, vugt qua Nhdt Ban (5,5 ngdn ty USD) trd thanh nen kinh td ldn thii hai trdn thd gidi. Siic mgnh do la CO sd dd Trung Qudc tdng cudng dnh
24
hudng va vai trd chinh trj cua minh tren thd gidi vd khu vyc, nd lyc tdi eau tnic cdc djnh chd qudc td cd sdn phuc vu Ipi ich qudc gia, tranh thu ldi keo cac nudc Ddng Bdc A va ASEAN vdo khdng gian chinh tri va kinh te eua minh, thyc hidn tham vpng trd thdnh "sidu cudng dom cue" duy nhat d khu vuc chdu A. Sy trdi day mgnh me cua Tnmg Qudc de dpa khdng gian chidn lugc cua Nhdt Ban, lam cho Nhat Bdn ludn cdm thdy "bdt an", gay siic ep len chinh sdch
- NGHIEN Cflu TRUNG QUO'C so' 11 (171) - 2015
. - an ninh giira Nhat Ban v&l Trung Quoc
ddi ngoai ciia nudc nay. De ddi phd vdi sy troi day manh md cua Tmng Quoc. Nhdt Ban day nhanh qua trinh trd thdnh "qudc gia binh thudng", no luc sira ddi nhu'ng han chd ciia Hidn phap Hda binh (ndm 1946) nhdm khdi phuc chii quydn qudc gia day dli. khac phyc tinh trang qua le thudc vao My. thyc hidn tham vpng dua Nhat Ban tir cudng qudc kinh td trd thanh cudng qudc vd chinh trj tai khu vyc. Vide Nhdt Ban van ddng cai each Lidn hgp qudc (LHQ), tim kidm dia vi thanh vidn Hdi ddng Bao an (HDBA). nd luc tdng cudng vidn trg ODA cho cdc nudc dang phat trien, that chat quan he chien lugc vdi My, An Dp, Olxtrdylia, tich cue can dy vdo cac van de the gidi va khu vuc la di theo hudng nay'".
1.2. Chgy dua gia tdng sdv mgnh qudn str
Hien nay, cd hai ben, Nhat Ban va Trung Qudc, ddu chay dua gia lang sire manh quan sy cua minh.
Ve phia Trung Quoc, trong nhirng nam gdn day, ngan sach danh cho qudc phdng ciia nudc nay ludn gia tdng d mirc hai con sd (ndm 2015 dat mirc 144 ty USD) , nhanh chdng hien dai qudn dpi vdi viec dua vdo thir nghiem va hoat ddng cac he thdng vu khi hien dai nhu: tau sdn bay, may bay tang hinh thd he thii 5 J20 vd J31, ten lira dan dao xuyen luc dia DF41. ha thuy tau san bay Lieu Ninh (2012). tang cudng ndng lyc chidn tranh mang. Nhidu ngudn tin cho rang, Trung Qudc dang ddng thdm 3 tau san bay mdi, dam phan mua
may bay Su 35 va he thdng phdng khdng tdi tan S 400 ciia Nga....
Ve pliia Nhdt Bdn, qude gia nay da tai lap Bd Qudc phdng vao nam 2007 (nang cdp tir Cue Phdng vd), bd tri lai lyc lugng quan sy theo hudng tang cudng phdng thii d vung Idnh thd phia Nam dd ddi phd vdi Trung Qudc thay vi chi tap trung ddi phd vdi mdi de dpa tir phia Bac (Nga). tang cudng he thdng la chan ten iua va nang lyc chien tranh mang'^', ndi long vide han chd xuat khau vii khi. gia tang chi phi qudc phdng ba nam lidn tidp (tir nam 2013 ldn 41 ti USD, nam 2015 tang len 42 ty USD), tang sd lugng tau ngam tir 16 len 22, dat mua 42 chide may bay the he thir 5 F35A, mua them 39 true thang. ha thiiy ihem 3 tau khu true, ha thiiy 2 tau san bay chd tryc thang ldp Izumo (2014.2015). dac bidu tir nam 2015 da thdng qua dao luat an ninh cho phep quan dpi Nhat dugc tham chidn d ben ngoai lanh thd ciia minh, Rd rang, cudc chay dua tang cudng siic manh qudc phdng ciia hai bdn khdng nhiing Iam tdn hai tdi ngudn ngdn sach danh cho phat trien kinh td mdi qudc gia ma cdn tao ra
"mdmen xoan" khidn cdc nudc cdn lgi trong khu vyc Ddng A cung phdi phidu luu chgy theo mdt each day ldn kem.
l.S.Tranh chdp chti quyen bien (tdo Tranh chap chii quydn bidn dao giu'a Nhat Ban vd Trung Qudc la mdt trong nhung van de "ndng bdng'" va ciing nguyen nhan quan trpng gay ra linh trang
"cang thdng'' trong quan he chinh tri giO'a hai qudc gia.
NGHIEN cflu TRUNG QUOC so 11 (171) - 2015
25
Thu nhdt, vd van de tranh chdp dao Senkaku/ Didu Ngu md ca hai bdn ciing tuydn bo cd ehu quydn. Day la quan ddo gdm 5 dao va 3 bai da, cd tdng didn tich 5,56km^ each Dai Loan khoang 200 km vd each quan dao Okinawa cua Nhat Ban khoang 150 km, hien dang do Nhdt Ban nam quydn kidm sodt thyc te. Vimg bidn xung quanh quan ddo nay dugc ddnh gia la ed ngudn ddu khi tr& lugng Idn*"^'. Tir dau nhiing nam 1990 bdt dau xdy ra nhidu tranh cai va va chgm giiia hai nudc vd chii quydn doi vdi qudn dao nay. Dac biet, ngay 8/9/2010, tdu tudn tra eua lyc lugng hdi quan Nhdt Ban dd bdt giur mdt tdu danh ca Trung Qude cung thuydn trudng va ngay 11/9/2012, chinh phu Nhdt Ban da quoc hiru hda quan ddo nay bang each mua lai tir tu nhdn. Nhung su kidn ndy ddng nghia vdi vide chuoi dao Senkaku/ Dieu Ngu da chinh thiic duge chinh phu bao dam vd an ninh va da day quan he chinh tri hai nudc ldn tdi mtic cdng thang. Dd dap tra, Tmng Qudc tidn hanh mdt loat eae bidn phap nhu: Tridu tap Dai sir Nhdt Ban tai Bde Kinh tdi tru sd Bd Ngoai giao Trung Qude dd chat van vd trao cdng ham phdn doi, ddng thdi "Idm ngo" cho ngudi ddn bidu tinh ram rp, tham chi xay ra bao Iuc va dap phd cdc cda hang va nha may cua Nhat Bdn tai Tnmg Qudc, tidn hanh tap trgn quan su, dua cac tau ca, tdu hdi giam va tdu hdi qudn ra khu vyc tranh chap gan dao Senkaku/Didu Ngu de bidu duong lyc Iugng, tdng eudng su hien dien thyc td tai khu vue tranh chdp, gay siic ep ddi vdi Nhdt Bdn. Tranh chdp dao Senkaku/Dieu Ngu Id vdn de ldn nhat va thudng xuydn 26
gdy ra bdt ddng trong quan hp Nhdt - Trung nhirng nam gan ddy.
Thic hai, mpt ndi dung khac gdy tranh chdp vimg bidn Hoa Ddng giura Nhdt Ban vd Tmng Qude la vach dudng ranh gidi, xac djnh vung ddc quydn kinh te cua moi bdn. Theo quy djnh cua Cdng udc LHQ vd Lugt Bidn (UNCLOS), nudc giap bidn cd thd ldy vimg bidn tu dudng co sd ra bdn ngodi khdng qua 200 hai ly lam vung ddc quydn kinh td cua nudc dd. Thd nhung, chidu rdng vimg bidn Hoa Ddng giGa Nhgt Ban vd Tmng Qudc nhidu doan khdng tdi 400 hdi ly, vi thd neu hogch dinh viing ddc quydn kinh td ciia Nhgt Ban vd Trung Qudc theo quy dinh ciia UNCLOS tgi day, vide xudt hidn vimg chdng ldn va tranh cdi la khdng tranh khdi. Phia Nhdt Ban chii tmong sir dung khai nidm "dudng trung gian" tinh theo dudng co sd cua bd bidn hai nudc dd phdn chia ranh gidi. Cd dieu, Ianh thd Nhdt Ban chi cd mdt gdc dao Kyushyu Id gidp bidn Hoa Ddng, con Trung Qudc ed dudng bd bidn gidp bidn Hoa Ddng ddi bdng nghin km, do vdy Tmng Qudc khdng chap nhan chu tmong phdn chia theo each tren ciia Nhat Bdn . Trong khi dd, phia Tnmg Qudc lai chii tmong phdn chia vimg dac quydn kinh te giijra hai nude theo nguyen tdc "thdm luc dja keo dai tu nhidn". Theo dd, vimg ddc quydn kinh tl ciia Trung Qudc bao g6m vimg bidn phu can ddo Didu Ngu, vd neu vdy, thdm luc dja vimg bidn Hoa Ddng ciia Tmng Qudc la mdt thdm luc dia rdng ldn, phia Ddng keo ddi tdi cdc ddo thupc Okinawa cua Nhdt Ban. Duong nhidn, chu
— NGHIENCflUTRUNGQU0Cso11(171)-2015
„ / - an ninh giira Nh$t Bin v&i Trung Quoe..
tmong nay cua Trung Qudc da bi Nhat Ban tdy chay*^'. Ngay 23/11/2013, Tmng Qudc dcm phuong tuydn bd thidt lap Vimg nhdn dgng phdng khdng (ADIZ) d vimg bidn Hoa Ddng chdng ldn vdi ADIZ hipn tgi ciia Nhat Bdn va Han Qudc, ddng thdi yeu cdu tat ed cac may bay bay qua viing ndy phai khai bao thdng tin chuydn bay ma khdng quan tdm ddn didm ddn ciia may bay do. Dilu ndy gap phai sy phdn ling quydt lidt tir phia Tokyo, Washington*^' va su quan ngai ciia cdc nudc trong khu vyc.
Su vide nay cang tdng them hd sdu ngdn each quan he song phuang Nhdt - Tmng.
1.4. Tranh cai lien quan t&i vdn de lich su- vd chu ngltia dan t^c
Thir nhdt, vide vidng tham ddn Yasukuni ciia Thu tudng Nhdt Bdn Shinzo Abe ludn la van dd "nhgy cam" va gay bdt ddng trong quan hd Nhdt - Tnmg. Ngdi den Yasukuni thd 2,5 tridu quan nhan Nhgt Ban, trong do cd 7 tdi pham chidn tranh logi A, chdt trong Chidn tranh The gidi thir hai. Vi thd, phia Tnmg Qudc cho rang ngdi den ndy la bidu tugng ciia chii nghTa quan phidt Nhat Ban vd la dd ca nggi nhihig hdnh ddng "tan bao" trong The ehien thii hai cua Nhgt Ban. Moi ldn Thii tudng Nhgt Bdn thdm ddn Yasukuni ddu gap phdi sy ldn an quydt lipt tir phia Trung Qudc vd gay "sdng gid" trong quan he chinh trj giiia hai qudc gia.
Thu hai, lidn quan tdi ndi dung "Sdeh gido khoa ljch sii" do Bd Giao due Nhgt Ban thdng qua vao nam 2001. Phia Trung Qudc cho rang, ndi dung sach gido khoa
ljch sir Nhdt Ban da phii nhdn su that ljch su, sir dyng nhidu ngdn tir "gidm nhe"
nhirng tdi ae eua chii nghTa quan phidt Nhat Ban trong chidn tranh xdm lugc Trung Qudc. Vi du, "xam lugc todn didn Tmng Qu6e" dugc "my hda" thdnh "tan cdng toan didn vao Tmng Qudc", giam nhe
"su kidn tham sat Nam Kinh" bdng npi dung "tmdc sy phan khdng quyet lidt ciia quan Tmng Qudc, qudn ddi Nhdt Bdn bi nhieu tdn thdt khdng kidm chd dugc, da sat hai nhidu qudn dan Tnmg Qudc"*''. Nhieu chuydn gia phdn tich chinh tri cho rang, van dd lich sii chi la cai cd ma hai bdn sii dung dd kich ddng chu nghia dan tdc d hai qudc gia nay nhdm phuc vu nhiing toan tinh vd chinh tri khac nhau. Vi vdy, trong tuong lai, van dd lich sir sS van la van dd mdu chdt gay nhirng bdt ddng trong quan he song phuang Nhdt Bdn va Trung Qudc**'.
1.5. Van de Ddi Loan
Van dd Dai Loan ciing la mpt trong nhung vdn dd nan giai trong quan he an ninh giiia Nhdt Bdn va Tmng Qudc. Mac du trong tuydn bd ngoai giao, Nhat Ban ung hd hudng ddn "mdt nudc Tmng Qudc", song tren thyc td, Nhgt Ban ludn duy tri quan he vdi Dai Loan vi mdi quan he nay dap ling dugc nhu edu ve ehinh tri - an ninh va kinh td vdi Nhgt Ban.
Thir nhdt, Nhat Ban ludn duy tri quan he kinh te chat che vdi Dai Loan, la ddi tac thuang mgi va ddu tu hang dau tgi Dai Loan.
Thit hai, Eo bien Ddi Loan cd y nghTa vd cimg quan trpng vdi Nhgt Ban xet ve khia canh chinh tri - an ninh. Thuc chdt.
NGHIEN cflu TRUNG QUD'C so 11 (171) - 2015
27
Nhai Ban cung khdng mudn Trung Qudc va Dai Loan hgp nhat. vi didu dd true tiep anh hudng tdi mdi trudng an ninh xung quanh Nhat Ban. Vide cd dugc mdi trudng dn djnh xung quanh khu vyc Eo bien Dai Loan cd lam quan trpng chidn lugc ddi vdi Nhat Ban. vi nd dugc coi la "luyen dudng sinh menh"' * dam bao dieu kien thuan lgi cho \'icc chuyen chd hang hda va nguyen lieu va xuat nhap khau ra vao Nhat Ban.
Hgp lac vdi My bao ve Dai Loan cung chinh la lao mdt vanh dai bao bpc kidm che su trdi day ciia Trung Qudc. Dieu nay dugc the hien ro trong Tuydn bd chung vao thang 2/2005 tai cupc hpp 2+2 giira cac Ngogi Irudng va Bd Irudng Qudc phdng Nhat - My, xac dinh Dai Loan la "muc tieu chung" trong Hidp dinh An ninh Nhdl - My. Cd thd nhgn thay. trong tuong lai, Nhat Ban se tim each gay khd de can trd Trung Qudc trong van dd thdng nhat Dai Loan, ddng ihdi budc Trung Qudc phai coi dd la van de phai dam phan vdi ho trong vice giai quydt bat ddng giua hai ben""'
2. Tac dpng doi vdi khu vuc Dong A Hai qudc gia vdi nhiJng loan tinh va phuang ihirc khac nhau lim kiem, nam bat va canh tranh nhu'ng co hdi thuan loi de ciing cd, phat trien siic manh ldng hop qudc gia, phat huy vai trd va anh hudng ciia minh ddi vdi khu vuc. Do dd. van dd va su canh tranh khdng the tranh khdi irong quan he Nhat - Trung se tac ddng den viec didu chinh chinh sach ddi ngoai cua eac qudc gia lidn quan. dac biel la cac nudc d khu vuc Ddng A:
28
2.1. Doi vdi khu virc ndi chung
Thir nhdl. su cdng thdng trong quan he chinh trj - an ninh Nhat-Trung lam tang sy bidn dpng phirc tgp cua mdi trudng dia chinh trj - an ninh d khu vyc Ddng A. Sy leo thang vd tranh chap tao ra siic ep ve chil quyen qudc gia - dan tdc. gay linh trang thieu hut vd an ninh, lam cho cac nudc ydu nhd phai tim kiem va\' mugn sire ben ngoai. ddc biel la ngudn cung an ninh tir phia My de bao ve dal nudc. Cimg vdi dd, su gia tang can thiep bdn ngoai vao qua Irinh giai quyet song phuong se lang len.
Cac nudc ldn. nhu My se cd co hdi nhidu hon can dy vao cac vdn de qudc gia va khu v y c " " . Dieu do ddng nghia vdi viec se dien ra cac hinh thirc lien kdt, lap hgp luc lugng hay ddng minh ciia cac nudc va viing lanh thd trong khu vyc de bao vd chii quyen qudc gia. Didu nay. se day khu vyc Ddng A den nguy co roi vao thdi ky "hda binh lanh" hay mdi cupc Chien tranh Lanh mdi, tham chi khdng logi trir nguy co biing phat xung dpi cue bp.
Tin'r hai, cudc chay dua siic manh qudn sy giiia Nhdl Ban vd Tmng Qudc tao ra cam giac ''bat an" cho cac nudc cdn lai, budc cac nudc Ddng A gia tang chi phi qudc phdng, chay dua vu trang de lang cudng kha ndng phdng vd dal nudc, va chinh dieu dd lai cdng dao sau thdm chinh nhirng "xiing trung an ninh" tai khu vyc.
tridt tidu mpi no luc nham san bdng viing trung nay va de dpa xay ra xung dpi"'', gay tac ddng xau den su phat tridn kinh te trong nudc
Thir ha, sy tranh gianh anh hudng Nhat - Trung tai khu vuc Ddng A dien ra - NGHIENCflUTRUNGI]UdCso11(171)-2015
» , - an ninh glu^ Nhat Ban v&i Trung Quoc....
tren cac ITnh vyc chinh tri va kinh td da gay anh hudng xau ddn chinh sach ddi ndi va ddi ngogi ciia cac nudc trong khu vuc va budc cac qudc gia ndy phai thich ung bdng each lien tuc didu chinh cac chinh sach dd de giir can bdng chidn lugc.
Thir lu, tranh chap chu quydn bien va hai dao Nhat - Trung da va dang dc dpa chil quyen, quydn chii quyen va tai phan v l bidn dao cua cac qudc gia - ddn tdc. lam cho eac chudn muc, ludt phap qudc Id giam tinh hidu lyc, tao nhiing tien Id xdu trong quan he qudc td. Didu ndy dugc thd hien bang sy tiiy tidn trong vide dp dung luat bidn qudc gia va luat bidn qudc td ddi vdi vimg bidn va hai dao tranh chap"^'. tao ra hidu ling "domino" xdu ddi vdi cac tranh chap chil quyen bien va hdi dao trong khu vuc Ddng A.
Tin'r ndm. tranh cdi lich sir va tranh chap lanh thd trong quan he Nhat-Trung iudn lam tdn thuang tinh cam dan tdc, tao ra
"manh dat mau mo" dung dudng va kich dpng chii nghTa dan tdc cyc doan ciia hai nudc, Iam la\ lan sang cac nudc khac Irong khu vyc Ddng A. Chu nghia ddn lpc cyc doan se la mpt nhdn td gay tac ddng khd ludng ddn qua trinh chinh tri ddi npi va ddi ngogi cua cac qudc gia va viing ldnh thd tai Ddng A. Xu hudng ndy hau nhu chdc chdn se day "vector" djnh hudng chinh tri ciia cdc qudc gia va vung Idnh thd trong khu vuc ve phia canh hun vdi dac Irung Id bao ihii va ciing ran"'^'. Rdt cupc, didu nay se gdy hieu iing lam xdi mdn ldng tin giDa cac bdn lien quan, lam tang nguy CO linh toan sai y dd chidn lugc cua nhau,
de dpa bimg phat xung dot giiia cac qudc gia trong khu vuc"^'.
Tin'r .sdu. Nhdl Ban va Trung Qudc la hai qudc gia quan trpng nhat irong vide xdy dyng Cdng ddng Ddng A, la hai "ddng CO ehinh" Irong con tau kinh Id Ddng A.
Do dd, quan he cang thang vd chinh tri - an ninh giua Nhat Ban va Trung Qude la ngudn cung bat dn, chia cat. de dpa hda binh va dn dinh ciia khu vue. can trd qua trinh lien ket, hgp lac va xay dung Cdng ddng Ddng A,..,
2.2. Ddi vdi Ddng Nam A
Nhirng van ^Q nan giai trong quan he chinh tri - an ninh giiia Nhat Ban va Trung Qudc cung tac ddng den cac nudc ASEAN.
Tim nhdt, sy egnh tranh lan nhau khien ca Nhat Ban va Trung Qudc phai tdng cudng anh hudng va chay dua tao "sy md hode" ddi vdi cdc nudc ASEAN bdng nhii'ng bidn phdp nhu: tang cudng vien trg (ODA), dau tu FDI vao cac nudc Ddng Nam A. Qua dd, cac nudc dang phat tridn trong khu vuc ed the tan dung dugc ngudn vdn, khoa hpc cdng nghe hien dai. ky nang quan ly tidn lien dd phuc vu muc lieu phat trien dal nudc. Ben cgnh dd. cac nudc ASEAN cung ndng cao duge vj the ciia minh ddi vdi Nhat Ban va Trung Qude trong vide giai quyet cac van de khu vyc va xdy dyng Cdng ddng Ddng A. De giam tai siic ep lir Trung Qudc ddi vdi Nhat Ban tgi bidn Hoa Ddng, tao ra mdt siic ep ddi vdi Trung Qudc tir phia Nam, Nhdt Ban ddy manh hgp tac vdi cac nudc ASEAN,
NGHIEN cflu TRUNG QUOC so 11 (171) - 2015
29
nhu Philippin, Viet Nam,... trdn nhieu ITnh vuc, nhu md cdc didn dan ty do hdng hai va an ninh bidn, vien trg, eung cdp cho lyc lugng canh sdt bidn cdc nudc nay tau tudn tra dd ndng cao ndng lye qudn ly va bao ve ldnh hai,... Trung Qudc cung tdng cudng md rdng dnh budng cua minh ddi vdi ASEAN bdng nhidu ddng thai, nhu day manh FDI vd vien trg cho khu vuc, dac bidt la Lao vd Campuchia trong giai dogn gdn ddy, tdng cudng quan he vdi Thdi Lan trong bdi canh chinh quydn qudn sy cua nudc nay khdng nhgn dugc sy ung hp tir My va cac nudc phuang Tay.
Thu hai, trong bdi canh hai nudc lidn tyc tdng eudng tranh gianh anh hudng, ldi keo vd tdc dpng vdo ndi bd cac nudc ASEAN, ndu cdc nudc ASEAN khdng cd su nhat quan, chu dpng va khdn kheo thye hien chien luge "can bang nudc Idn" ddi vdi hai eudng qude Nhgt - Tmng thi se dan ddn vide nghi ki ldn nhau, gdy tac ddng xau ddn kbdi doan kdt, hiiu nghj, hgp tac cua ASEAN*'^'. Cd thd ndi, can bang quan he chidn lugc vdi hai nudc Nhgt - Tnmg Id thach thiic va la bdi todn nan giai ddi vdi ASEAN.
2.3. DSi v&i Viit Nam
Thd: nhdt, quan he "ndng" trong quan he Nhgt - Trung tgo ra mdi tmdng khdng hda binh va dn dinh trong khu vyc, tat se tdc dpng xdu, khidn Viet Nam phdi didu chinh chinh sdch ddi ndi cung nhu ddi ngoai dd cdn bang chidn lugc ddi vdi quan he Nhdt - Trung. Cudc chay dua vii trang giiia hai nudc Nhgt Ban va Tmng Qudc khidn Viet 30
Nam cung phai "xoay true thii cap", ndng cao nang lyc qudc phdng de bao ve ehii quydn qude gia, su gia tang chi phi ddnh eho quan su dnh hudng xdu tdi qua trinh phdt tridn kinh td vd hipn dgi hda ddt nudc.
Thii- hai, quan he chinh trj - an ninh Nhat - Tmng "cdng thdng" se tac dpng tidu cyc den mdi trudng hda binh va 6n dinh d khu vyc, trong dd cd Viet Nam.
Ching han, vide Nhdt Bdn tdng cudng can dy vao Bidn Ddng sd tao dilu kidn thudn lgi cho qudc td hda tranh chdp Bidn Ddng;
Nhgt Ban tdng eudng cung edp tdu tudn tra, thilt bi va kinh nghiem chdng tau ngdm, ddo tgo sy quan bdi qudn Viet Nam tai Hpc vien Hai qudn Nhdt Bdn giiip ndng cao ndng lyc hai quan Viet Nam, tgo mdt kdnh dp Iye vdi Tnmg Qudc tai Bidn Ddng, giam tdi ap lyc ciia Trung Qudc ddi vdi Nhat Bdn trdn Bidn Hoa Ddng.
Thir ba, tranh chdp trdn bidn Hoa Ddng giO'a > hat Ban va Trung Qude cung khidn Tmng '.^udc phdi "dan mdng" Iye lugng hdi qmn cua minh 6% ddi phd vdi Nhgt Ban, lam giam tai dp lyc cua Tmng Qudc ddi vdi Viet Nam d Bidn Ddng. Trong tmdng hpfp Nhgt Ban gianh dugc uu the kidm soat tgi bidn Hoa Ddng, tham vpng trd thdnh "cudng qude bidn" cua Trung Qudc se bj can trd nghidm trpng, khidn Tmng Qudc se quydt doan vd bdt chap luat phap qudc td trong vide thdn tinh Bien Ddng. Khi dd, Viet Nam se bf de ndng bdi de dpa an ninh tir phia Trung Qudc, do ndm chan ngang cira ngo duy nhdt giiip Tmng Qudc tidn ra Thai Binh Duong thyc hien chidn lugc "hdi duong xanh". Trong
- NGHIEN Cflu TRUNG QUO'C so 11 (171) - 2015
../ - an ninh giira Nh$t Bin v&i Trung Qu6c..
tmdng hgp Tnmg Qu6c gianh dugc uu thd vdi Nhdt Bdn, khi do Trung Qudc ciing sir dyng da thudn lgi do dd chen ep cdc nudc cd tranh chap chu quyln bidn va hai ddo vdi Tmng Qudc tgi Biln Ddng, trong dd cd Vidt Nam.
Thu tu, Nhdt Ban duy tri va tdng ngudn von ODA, nhdm giiip ndn kinh td Viet Nam tang "sue dd khang" ddn thodt khdi "phu thudc" vdo ndn kinh td Tmng Qudc, qua dd tdng cudng vai trd va anh hudng cua Nhat Ban vdi Viet Nam; quan he chinh tri Nhdt - Trung cang thdng khiln mpt phan doanh nghiep Nhat Ban nit khdi thi tmdng Trung Qudc dd phdn tan nii ro, chuydn hudng sang dau tu va kinh doanh tgi cac nudc khdc, trong dd cd Viet Nam;
ngudn khach du tich Nhdt Ban cd y dinh sang Tmng Qudc chuydn sang thi trudng Viet Nam; luc lugng lao dpng ngudi Trung Qudc tai Nhdt Bdn gidm, thay vdo dd la nhung ngudi lao ddng Viet Nam dugc Nhdt Bdn uu tidn sang Nhgt lam vide, giiip Viet Nam giai quydt dugc "dp lyc" van dd lao ddng vide lam trong nudc, tgo ra dupe ngudn thj trudng xuat khdu lao ddng,... O chidu ngugc Iai, vj the cua Vipt Nam se tdng gia hon ddi vdi Tnmg Qudc, bdi nudc nay ciing phdi "tgo su md hodc" dd giii Viet Nam khdng tudt khdi su anh hudng cua minh bang each tang cudng dau tu FDI, tdng vidn trg ODA, hode bude cilng phai tinh todn mdt each can trpng ban tmdc khi dua ra nhung bidn phap ciing rdn gay siic ep vdi Viet Nam vd chinh tri -an ninh.
3. Mpt s6 gpi y chinh sach cho Vipt Nam trong quan he doi vdi Nhat Ban va Trung Quoc
Nhat Ban va Trung Qude ddu la nhung ddi tdc quan trpng hdng ddu cua Viet Nam trdn nhilu ITnh vyc. Chinh vi vgy, chinh saeh ddi ngoai cua Viet Nam ddi vdi timg ddi tac nay cdn ddc bidt phai tinh tao, thgn trpng, van dung tu tudng ngogi giao Hd Chi Minh "dT bat bidn img van bidn". Sy thieu linh hoat ed thd dan tdi nguy co lam xdu di mdi quan hp truydn thdng ciia Vipt Nam vdi hai qudc gia lang gidng va quan trpng bde nhdt d khu vue Ddng A. Vide xir ly hieu qud quan hd vdi Nhgt Ban va Trung Qudc cd y nghTa vd cimg thidt thue ddi vdi Viet Nam.
Thu nhdt, Vipt Nam phdi theo ddi sat sao nhung thay ddi trong quan he chinh trj - an ninh giiia Nhat Ban va Trung Qudc, ddc bidt nhihig didn bien bat thudng, qua dd cd nhiing phan tich, ddnh gid nhdm dy bdo dugc nhiing tac ddng xau anh hudng tdi lgi ich qudc gia ddn tdc Viet Nam dd dua ra duge nhOng bidn phap iing phd, xir ly kjp thdi va hidu qua. Ngodi ra, Vipt Nam phai nghidn ciiu ky nhiing didn bidn, dgng thai, xu hudng chinh tri, kinh te, xa hpi tai hai qude gia nay de ed thd cung cap nhQng ggi y, kinh nghipm xu ly tinh hudng va bdi hpc quy bdu cho vide hoach djnh dudng ldi, chinh sdeh vd dudng ldi ddi ngoai cua Viet Nam.
Thu hai, ddi vdi mdt mdi quan he phlic tgp Nhdt - Tnmg, ddc bidt la tinh trang tranh chap chii quydn trdn bidn va hai dao, nhumg tranh cdi lidn quan tdi vdn dd
NGHIEN cflu TRUNG QUO'C 5 ^ 1 1 ( 1 7 1 ) - 2 0 1 5
31
lich sir giura hai qudc gia nay. Viet Nam can the hien quan didm nhat quan. giir vu'ng nguyen tdc chung sdng hda binh, khdng can thidp vao cdng vide npi bd cua nhau. ddng thdi kdu gpi tat ca cac ben tdn trpng lual phap qudc te, eung kiem chd.
giai quycl tranh chap bang con dudng thuong lugng hda binh. iing hd ca chd da phuang Ddng Bac A trong cdc van de an ninh \'a hgp lac khu vyc. De nghi cac ben tuan thil UNCLOS. giai quyel tranh chdp lanh ihd. bien dao bang bien phap hda binh.
Len an hanh \ i su dung vu lyc va de doa sir dung vu luc trong viec giai quyel cac van de tranh chap.
Tin'r ha. chii Irpng thiic day quan he ddi lac chien lugc vdi ca Nhat Ban va Trung Qudc di vao chieu sau va hieu qua, thuc hien mdi each khdn kheo chidn lugc ddi ngoai "hda binh, dgc lap. ly chu". Day manh ddi Ihoai ddi ngoai - an ninh - quoc phdng vdi ca hai ddi lac, tang cudng cac hoai ddng giao luu cap dp nhan dan va tang ldp ihanh nien ciia ca hai nudc de tang cirdng su hieu biet, long tin, linh cam Clia the he lam chii tuong lai cua hai qudc gia na>. Tranh can du vao mau thuan.
tranh cai, iranh chap giira hai qudc gia Nhat - Trung. ddng thdi khdn kheo tranh thil su canh Iranh anh hudng va Igi ich ciia hai qudc gia nay Iren trudng qudc te, nhat la tai khu vuc Ddng Nam A, de phuc vu lgi ich qudc gia. dan tdc.
777if lir. tich cue phat huy vai trd ciia ASEAN va cac co chd. dien dan hgp lac khu vyc tu do ASEAN trong hgp tac vdi Nhat Ban va Trung Qudc"^'. Thuc ddy vai
trd trung tam ciia ASEAN trong ca che hgp tac ASEAN + 3 vdi Nhat Ban. Trung Qudc, Han Qudc. Hgp tac vdi ASEAN hda gidi y dd eiia bat cii nudc nao mudn thao liing anh hudng ddi vdi ASEAN, ldi keo td chiic nay vao vdng anh hudng eiia minh bang cdch ldi keo cac cudng qudc ed lgi ich lidn quan tham gia cang sdu vdo co chd hgp tdc do ASEAN chii dgo""*
Thi'r nam, cdn than trpng phan tich dien bidn vide Nhat Ban va Trung Qudc ddng loat tdng cudng can du \ao khu vuc Tidu viing sdng Me Cdng md rdng. didu cd the bien khu vuc nay thanh dia ban cgnh Iranh anh hudng ciia Nhgt Ban va Trung Qude.
Tin'r sdu, hidn nay. Nhat Ban la nudc ddu tu FDI va vien trg ODA ldn nhdl, la ddi tac thuang mai Idn thir ba ddi vdi Viet Nam, Quan he hiiu nghi va hgp lac vdi Nhdt Ban da gdp phdn to lan vao cdng cudc xay dimg CO sd hg lang, phat irien kinh Id, hien dgi hda dft nudc. Trong ITnh vuc an ninh, hai bdn cimg cd lgi ich chung la duy tri hda binh Vi dn dinh d khu vyc Ddng A. Vide Nhat BLMI tien hanh nhirng ddng thai can dy vao Bien Ddng trong thdi gian gan day co nhiing diem phii hgp vdi Igi ich qudc gia cua Viet Nam. Do do. tang cudng irao ddi thdng tin. hgp tac dao tgo ngudn nhan lyc.
nhan su trg giup tir phia Nhat Ban de tang cudng nang lyc bao vd ehu quydn bien va hai dao ciia dat nudc la can thidt. Tuy nhien.
khdng lien minh vdi Nhat Ban dd chdng lai Trung Qudc. phai than trpng, khdn kheo, giir viing nguydn tac ddc lap chii quyen qudc gia, khdng dugc de Nhat Ban sir dung Bien Ddng nhu mpt "con bai" dd mac ca
32 NGHIEN CUfU TRUNG QUOC so 11 (171) - 2015
1 - an ninh giira Nh$t Bin v&l Trung Quoe..
vdi Trung Qudc trong vide xir l^ tranh ehdp chil quydn bidn vd hdi dao tai bidn Hoa Ddng. Trong ITnb vyc kinh td, cdn sir dung ngudn vdn ODA ciia Nhdt Ban danh cho Viet Nam mdt cdch hidu qua nhdt dd xdy dyng ca sd hg tang ddng bd, tranh tbii tidp thu khoa hpc cdng nghd, ky ndng quan ly hidn dgi ciia Nhat Ban,... khai thac hidu qua sy hgp tac va giiip da cua Nhdt Bdn trong eae ITnh vyc dd hidn dai hda ddt nudc, xay dyng ndn kinh te ddc lap va ty chu.
Thie bdy, Trung Qudc la nudc lang gidng va la ddi tdc thucmg mai sd mdt cua Viet Nam, cd qude luc tdng hop mgnh, la sidu cudng kinh te ldn thii hai trdn thd gidi, siic anh hudng ddi vdi thd gidi va khu vyc ngdy cang tdng cao. Cd gdng d cao nhat cd the giii viing mdi quan he hiiu nghi ldng gidng vdi Trung Qudc de dn djnh vd phat tridn ddt nudc. Tuy Trung Qudc va Viet Nam Cling ed chung lgi ich y thiic he nhung phdi ddt lgi ieh qudc gia ddn tdc ldn trdn hdt, khdng vi lgi ich y thiie hd md lam dnh hudng tdi lgi ich qudc gia ddn tpc, chu quydn toan ven lanh thd.
Thir tdm, Tnmg Qudc dang budc vdo giai dogn phdt trien mdi vdi nhieu bidn dpng phlic tap xudt phdt tir qua trinh tai cdu tnic ndn kinh td, cdi each chinh trj bdn trong,... Dilu dd se tdc ddng khdng nhd ddn an ninh va su phdt tridn cua Viet Nam.
Trong bdi canh dd, chiing ta cdn nang cao cdng tdc thu thdp thdng tin, phdn tich dy bao chidn lugc, tdng cudng tinh chii ddng, khd nang ddi phd hidu qua vdi mpi tdc ddng tidu cyc, thdch thiic phat sinh tir phia Trung Qudc tir van dd tranh chdp Bidn
Ddng ddn eae de dpa an ninh tmydn thdng va phi tmydn thdng*'^'. Ddng thdi, chiing ta cdn chu dpng thyc hipn mdt each cd he thdng cac bidn phap tdng cudng ldng tin giua hai nudc, hgn chd tac dpng tieu cyc tir su troi day cua edc quan didm ddn tpc chu nghia qud khich, cye doan*^*''.
Ket luan
Nhgt Ban va Tnmg Qudc la bai nudc ldn va quan trpng bde nhdt d khu vyc Ddng A, sy ddo chidu "ndng dm" va "lanh gid" trong quan he chinh trj - an ninh giua hai quoc gia nay gay tac ddng nhidu mat ddn vdi cac nudc trong khu vyc, trong do cd Vipt Nam. Nhiing tac ddng dd ddu cd tinh hai mat, dem lgi ca nhiing thudn lgi va thdch thirc cho cac nudc trong khu vyc Ddng A. Khi quan he hai nudc trd ndn
"cdng tbdng" de dpa sy hda binh vd dn dinh trong khu vyc, ldm eho qua trinh hinh thanh Cdng ddng Ddng A bj ngung trd.
N I U Nhdt Ban vd Trung Qudc hiiu nghj va hgp tdc se trd thanh hai dpng co day con tdu Ddng A Iao nhanh Idn phia tmdc, khi dd qud trinh hinh thdnh COng ddng Ddng A se dien ra thudn Igi va nhanh hem. Do dd, Vidt Nam edn khdn kheo, nhan didn, khac phuc nhiing tdc dpng tidu cue, khai thac tdi da nhiing tdc dpng tich eyc eiia cdp quan he nay dd phuc vu qud trinh hien dgi hda va phat tridn kinh td ddt nudc.
CHU THICH:
(1), (2) Nguyen Xuan Thdng (2012), Bao cao tdng quan: Nhung van de kinh te va chinh tri ndi bat ciia khu vyc Dong Bdc A giai doan
NGHIEN cflu TRUNG QUOC s o i l ( 1 7 1 ) ~ 2 0 1 5
33
2011-2020, Vifn Nghien ciiu Dong Bdc A, Vign KHXH Vigt Nam, tt 2 5 . tt". 42.
(3) Theo khdo sdt cua Nhdt Bdn, vao ndm 1999 cfl ttO' lupng khodng 200 ty m^ khi dflt, lupng mdng gan cd the dimg ttong vdng 320 ndm,...), Tran Hodng Long (2010), Tranh chdp chu quyen tren bien giira Nhdl Bdn vd Trung Quoc, Tap chi Nghien ciiu Dong Bdc A, solO, tt 12.
(4) Thflng tdn xd Viet Nam, Tmng - Nhdt: Qud trinh di ldi thoa thugn "ciing khai thdc" tgi vitng biin Hoa Dong, Tdi lifu tham khdo ddc bift so ngdy 8/7/2008, tr 8
(5) Trdn Hoang Long (2010), Tdi liiu da ddn.
Tap chf Nghien ciiu Dong Bdc A, sfl 10, tt 17 (6) Thflng tan xd Vift Nam, Ve ADIZ cua Trung Quoc vd Idc dong v&i khu vuc, Tdi lifu tham khdo ddc bift ngdy 6/1/2014, tt 5
(7) ?A^m%{i 9 9 6 ¥ ) B r p m m
/9'/5-/990,K^^^thltg,12] Tanaka Akihiro (1996), Quan he Nhdt - Trung giai dogn 1945 -1990, Nxb Dai hpc Tokyo, tr 121.
(8) Trin Hodng Long (2007), Quan hi Nhgt - Trung hien nay: Thdch thuc va triin vong. Tap chi Nghifn Cliu Dflng Bdc A, sfl 7, ttl6
(9) Thong tin xd Vift Nam (2/2013), Xdy difng quan he h(rp tdc an ninh Trung - Nhgt ciing co lgi ve chiin lugc, Tdi lifu tham khdo ddc bift, tt 9.
(10) Trdn Hoang Long (2007), Tdi lieif da ddn, tt!6.
(11) Trdn Khdnh (2012), Tranh chdp chu quyin bien ddo hiin nay a Dong Bdc A va Idc dong cua no den hop tac vd an ninh khu vuc, Ky yfu Hfli thdo Doi sdch cua cdc qudc gia va vung ldnh thfl d Ddng Bac A vf cdc van de noi bat cua khu vyc giai doan 2011 -2020, do Vien Nghifn cuu Dong Bic A, Vign Khoa hpc Xa hpi Vift Nam tfl chiic, tr 52.
(12) Dang Xuan Thanh (2012), Viing trung an ninh Dong Bdc A, Tap chi Nghifn ciiu Dflng Bdc A, sfl 10, tt4,
(13) Trdn Khdnh (2012), Tdi lieu da ddn,t r 52 (14) Nguyen Xudn Thang (2012), Tdi lieu dd ddn., tr 157.
(15) o a n g Xudn Thanh (2012), Tdi li$u dS d * , tt4.
(15) Qudch Quang Hflng (2015), Quan hi Trung QuSc - Nhat Bdn sau Chiin tranh Lgnh (lir ndm 1991 din ndm 2010), Ludn dn TS Ljch sii, Hpc Vign Khoa hpc Xd hfli, tt 137.
(16), (17), (18), (19) Nguyin Xudn Thdng (2012), Tdi lieu dd ddn., tt 175. 177.
TAI LI$U THAM KHAO C H I N H 1. Trdn Khdnh (2012), Tranh chap chu quyen biin ddo hien nay a Dong Bdc A va tdc dpng cua no din hgp tdc vd an ninh khu vuc, Ky yeu Hpi thao Ddi sdch ciia cdc quoc gia vd vung ldnh tho d Dong Bdc A vf cdc vdn d l noi b^t cua khu vyc giai doan 2011 -2020, do Vign Nghien ciru Dflng Bdc A, Vifn Khoa hpc Xd hpi Vigt Nam td chiic.
2. Trdn Hodng Long (2007), Quan h? Nhgt - Trung hi^n nay: thdch thuc vd triin vgng. Tap chl Nghien cim Dong Bdc A,sd 7.
3. Ddng Xudn Thanh (2012), Viing triing an ninh Dong Bdc A, T^p chi Nghifn ciru Dong Bdc A, sdlO,
4. Nguyen Xuan Thdng (2012), Bdo cao tong quan: Nhiing vdn de kinh te vd chinh tri noi bgt cita khu v\cc Dong Bdc A giai dogn 2011 -2020, Vifn Nghifn cuu Ddng Bdc A, Vifn KHXH Vift Nam.
5. Nishiguchi Kyokatsu(2006), Xdy dvng cong dong Dong A, Nxb Mineua Syobo - M P f S
mm (2 0 0 6¥. MTi^r^i^i^tDmm. ?
6. Takahara Akio vd Hatsutori Ryuzi (2012), Quan he chinh trj Nhgt- Trung 1972-2012, Nxb Dai hpc Tokyo - ^^^^.^^^-{2012^), B "f m^^^ 1972-^2012 1 iEfcf&. m,^:*C^ffifiS#
7. Tanaka Ahikiro (1996), Quan h? Nhgt - Trung: 1945-1990, Nxb D^i hpc Tokyo - ffl cfi |^
?A ( 1 9 9 Q^)BrpllS^ 1945-1990,%^%^
tijils
