Can can thanh toan qu6c te cua Viet Nam tir nam 2007 din nay
Nguyen Thi Vu H a '
' Tmdng Dai hpc Kinh te, Dai hpc Qu6c gia Ha Npi.
Email: [email protected]
Nhan ngiy 9 thing 9 nim 2018. Chip nhan ding ngay 13 thing 10 nim 2018.
Tom tat: Can can thanh toan (BOP) qudc td la chi s6 kinh td vT mo quan trgng phan anh thuc ti-ang ngoai thuong ciia mot nude trong mot thdi ky nhit dinh, giup cho vi?c hoach dinh chinh sach kinh tg ciia qudc gia. Chinh vi vay. Quy Tiln te qu6c tS (IMF) da ban hanh Cdm nang hudng dan lap BOP tir nim 1948 dk cac nude thanh vien ap dung. Cim nang nay da dugc chinh sua, cap nhit bo sung lin thii 6 ahn phien ban mdi nhit vao nam 2009. Phien ban dugc sir d\ing hien nay la Cam nang hudng din lap BOP va Vi th6 din hr qudc td thii 6^ ban hanh nam 2009 va dugc dich sang nhieu thir tilng khac nhau. Tu nam 2014, Viet Nam chinh thiic thdng ke cac giao dich kinh te theo phiSn ban mai nhit nay. Kg tii khi Viet Nam la thinh vien chinh thiic cua T6 chiic Thucmg mai The gidi (WTO) nam 2007 din nay, BOP quoc tl cua Viet Nam da sir bidn dgng tuang doi Idn, phan anh dung thuc trang hoat dpng thuang mai qudc te dien ra manh me d Viet Nam.
Tir khoa: Can can thanh toan quoc te, thuang mai qudc te, Viet Nam.
Phan loai nginh: Kinh te hgc
Abstract; The intemational balance of payments (BOP) is an important macroeconomic indicator reflecting the state of a country's foreign trade over a given period of time, helping shape its economic policy. That is why the Intemational Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a Balance of Payments Manual in 1948 for its member states to use. The manual has been revised and updated to the latest version, entitled "Balance of Payments and Intemational Investment Position Manual, Sixth Edition"^, in 2009, which has been ti-anslated into many languages. In 2014, Vietnam officially started making statistics of its economic transactions under the version. Since the country became an official member of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2007, its intemational BOP has experienced considerable fluctuations, reflecting the tme state of international trade that has been taking place strongly there.
Keywords: Intemational balance of payments, intemational ti:ade, Vietiiam.
Subject classification: Economics
Nguyin Thi Vti Ha 1. Mfr dau
Can can thanh toan la mgt bang dir lieu cimg cap thdng tin vd ket qua ciia cac giao dich qudc td ciia mgt qudc gia vdi phan cdn Iai ciia the gidi, thd hidn qua hai tai khoan chinh, la tai khoan vang lai (CA) va tai khoan vdn va tai chinh (KA)-'. Trong do, CA ghi nhan cae giao dieh cd lien quan ddn sir dieh chuyen hang boa, dich vg; thu nhap sa cap (gdm thu nhap eua ngudi lao ddng va thu nhap tir diu tii) va thu nhap thii cip (chuydn giao vang lai) giiJa ngudi eu tni eua mgt nude vdi ngudi cu tni eiia nude ngoai. KA ghi chep cac khoan vay hay cho vay nude ngoai, cac ddng diu tu true tidp va gian tidp vdi nude ngoai didn ra trong mdt thdi ky cu thd, thudng la mdt nam. La thanh vidn eua IMF, Viet Nam da nghiem tiie thuc hidn vide lap BOP qudc td theo hudng din cua td chiie nay. Nam 2014, Viet Nam da ban hanh Nghi dinh 16/20I4/^D-CP eua Chmh phu vd quan ly BOP qudc td. Kd tii khi Viet Nam la thanh vidn chinh thiic cua WTO nam 2007 va hdi nhap sau rdng vdi ndn kinh td thd gidi va khu vue thi boat dgng thuong mai va diu tu qude te d Viet Nam da didn ra manh me, BOP qudc te da cd su bidn ddng tuong ddi Idn. Bai viet nay phan tieh bidn ddng BOP qudc td cua Viet Nam giai doan 2007-2017 va dua ra mgt sd ham y chinh sach eho Vidt Nam.
2. Bien d^ng can cSn tai khoan vang lai Ke tir khi la thanh vidn chinh thiic ciia WTO nam 2007 ddn nay, CA ciia Viet Nam da ed su bien ddng kha ldn. Trong giai doan 2007-2010, CA Clia Viet Nam Hen tuc tiiam hut nhung miie tham hut, ngay eang giam.
Nam 2007, CA eiia Viet Nam tham hut hon
6,59 ty USD; nam 2008, do anh hudng cua khung hoang kinh te the gidi, ndn miic tham hut tang len ddn 10,82 ty USD; nam 2009, miic tham hut la 6,6 ty USD; edn nam 2010, miie tham hut la gin 4,3 ty USD. Giai doan 201I-20I7, CA cua Viet Nam dat thang du kha eao, binh quan dgt gin 6,0 ty USD/nam. Trong do, nam 2011 dat 236 tiieu USD; nam 2012 dat 9,4 ty USD; nam 2013 dat 7,7 ty USD; nam 2014 dat ban 9,3 ty USD; nam 2015 dat 906 hidu USD; nam 2016 dat ban 8,2 ty USD; va nam 2017 dat 6,1 ty USD [9].
Bien dgng CA chii ydu la do bidn dgng trong can can hang hoa va dich vu cua Viet Nam. Tir nam 2007 ddn 2011, can can hang hoa va dich vu eua Viet Nam lidn tuc bi tham hut, mac du cd xu hudng giam din.
Ddn nam 2012, can can hang hoa va dich vu cua Viet Nam thang du hon 7,45 ty USD, sau dd sut giam nhe vao nam 2013. Tir nam 2014 den nam 2017, can can hang hoa va dieh vu cua Viet Nam thang du binh quan khoang 8,0 ty USD/ nam [9]. Trong dd:
Can can hang hoa nhap sidu tii nam 2007 den nam 2011, sau dd la xuit sieu tir nam 2012 dat 7,4 ty USD, ddn nam 2017 dat 14 ty USD [9]. Cac mat hang xuit khiu chu yeu ciia Vidt Nam la didn thoai va linh kidn, ddt may, di$n tir, may tinh va linh kidn, giay dep. Cae mat hang nhap khau ehii yeu la dien tii, may tinh va Imh kidn, may mdc, thidt bi, thong tm lien lac va vai [7]. Mdt diem can luu y la, thdng ke can can hang hoa theo chuan eiia IMF bao gdm cac hang hoa cd su thay ddi quydn sd huu giiia ngudi cu tni va ngudi khdng cu tni. Do do, ndu Viet Nam nhap khau hang hoa tix ngudi khong cu tni de gia eong chd bien, sau do xuat khau lai cho ngudi khdng cu tni va hang hoa gia edng nay khdng cd su thay ddi quydn sii hira vdn cd cua ngudi khdng cu
Khoa hpc xahoi Viet Nam. s6 11-2018 tru, thi hang hoa do se khong duoc hach toan vao can can hang hoa (phi gia cong, phi cM biSn duoc hach toan vao can can dich vu). Ngoai ra, Ithi hoach toan vao BOP thi gia tri hang hoa xuit nhip khiu dugc tinh theo gia tai ctia khiu (FOB) cua ben xuit, khong bao g5in chi phi bao hiem va chi phi van chuySn. Vi vay, can can hallg hoa chinh la chenh lech gia giua xuat khau gia FOB va nhap khiu gia FOB. Day la ly do giai thich tai sao can can hang hoa trong BOP lai CO su khac biet so voi s6 lieu ve can can thuang mai, xuat sieu, nhap sieu do T5ng cue Th6ng ke cong b6 (xuit khiu gia FOB va nhap khiu theo gia tai ciia khiu cua ben nhap, g6m gia thanh, bao hiem va gia cuoc - GIF).
Can can dich vu (bao gom toan bo cac giao dich mua, ban, trao doi ve cac san phim do hoat dgng dich vu tao ra trong ITnh vuc giao thong van tai, du lich, thong tin hen lac, xay dung, bao hiem, tai chinh, may tinh va thong tin, quyen su dung giay phep, quyen sii dung thuong hieu va ban quyen, dich vu ca nhan, van hoa, giai tri, dich vu chinh phu va dich vu logistics giita nguoi cu tru va nguoi khong cu tni) ciia Viet Nam ngay cang dugc mo rgng. Viet Nam la nuoc nhap sieu voi gia tri ngay cang tang, cao nhit la nam 2016 dat 5,4 ty USD; nam 2017, giam xu6ng con gin 3,9 ty USD [9].
Can can thu nhap so cap luon tham hut ngay cang tang, tir muc hon 2,1 ty USD nam 2007 dSn miic 9,9 ty USD nam 2017.
Tong thu nhap sg cap vao luon chiSm ty trgng Ion trong tong can can thu nhap sg cap (hem 90% kS tir nam 2010)[9]. "Nguyen nhan chu ySu la do cac khoan thanh toan cho dau tu kha Ion, khoang 6,5 ty USD d6n 10,5 ty USD giai doan 2012-2017, trong khi cac khoan thu nhap nhan dugc tir diu tu la rat nho, chiem khoang 5%-7% so voi khoan
thanh toan cho diu tu [9]. DiSu niy co nghia rang, so lgi tuc tii dau tu va tien lai vay ma Viet Nam phai tra cho nguoi khong cu tni la tucmg doi Ion, hay noi each khac, la Viet Nam vay ng nhieu va ngudi nuoc ngoai nim gill nhiSu tai san 6 Viet Nam.
Can can thu nhap thii cip luon thSng du tir 6,4 ty USD nam 2007 den 9,6 ty USD nam 2017, trong do chu ySu la do so lugng chuySn giao vao Viet Nam cao trong khi s6 lugng chuyen giao ra thip (Viet Nam bat dau ghi nhan chuyjn giao don phugng ra tit nam 2013 vgi so lugng dao dgng tu 550 triju USD den 1,63 ty USD) [9]. Chuyin giao don phuomg cua Viet Nam chu yen la tit khu vuc tu nhan (kiSu h5i). Day chinh la ngudn thu nhap Ion gop phan cai thien can can vang lai ciia Viet Nam. Mirc tham hut trong can can thu nhap so cap kha tuong duong voi miic thang du trong can can chuySn giao don phugng, nen bien dgng trong can can thuong mai chu ylu phan anh biSn dgng h-ong can can tai khoan vang lai ciia Viet Nam (trir nam 2011, khi thang du trong can can chuyen giao bii dap dugc kha 1cm tham hut trong can can thuang mai va can can thu nhap sg c§p, nen CA mofi thang du va nam 2015 do sut giam trong thang du can can thugng mai va can can thu nhap sg cap tham hut nhiSu, nen CA mgi sut giam manh).
3. Bien dgng can can tai khoan von v^
tki chinh'*
Sau khi Viet Nam tra thanh thanh vien chinh thiic cua WTO, KA cua Vi^t Nam da CO nhiing biin dgng tugng d6i lgn. Trong giai doan diu, KA cua Viet Nam lien tuc thang du, cao nhit la nam 2009, dat 15,64 ty USD. Sau do, do nhihig bat 6n kinh tS vl
Nguyen Thi Vu Ha mo giai doan 2011-2012, nen KA cua Viet
Nam bi thto hut tir nam 2012 dSn nam 2014, vai miic tham hut cao nhit la 3,89 ty USD. Nam 2015, KA ciia Viet Nam dat thang du khoang 7,6 ty USD, nam 2016 dat 2,57 ty USD; nam 2017 dat 7,6 ty USD[9].
Trong cac cau phin ciia KA thi diu tu tnrc tiep chiem ty trgng ldm va tucmg d6i 6n dinh, dau tu gian tiep chiem ty trgng nho va bien dgng tuong doi ldm; trong do co nhihig nam dong von nay con dao chieu chay ra khoi Viet Nam (nam 2008 va 2015). Diu tu khac chiim ty trgng it hon diu tu true tiep, nhung nhieu hem diu tu gian tiip va biin dgng Ion nhit trong KA.
Ve ddu tu true tiip (DI), can can DI cua Viet Nam lien tuc thang du ki tir khi la thanh vien chinh thiic cua WTO vdi gia tn ngay cang tang, dac biet tu nam 2013 din nay. Diiu nay chii yiu do Viet Nam luon nhan dugc von dau tu true tiep cua nuoc ngoai ki ca trong giai doan suy thoai kinh ti the gioi 2008-2012. Trong hai nam diu khi Viet Nam la thanh vien chinh thirc cua WTO, vin DI vao Viet Nam tang manh, sau do suy giam khoang 20% vao nam 2009 va giii miic on dinh trong khoang 7,43 ty USD din 8,37 ty USD hi nam 2009 din nam 2012. Nam 2013, ciing voi su phuc hii cua kinh te toan cau, dong vin DI vao Viet Nam da cd su tang truong lien tuc va dat 14,1 ty USD nam 2017. Von DI nuac ngoai vao Viet Nam chu yiu la thong qua viec mua c6 phin tai cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam (chiim khoang 80-90% tdng vin DI nuoc ngoai vao Vict Nam, trtr nam 2013 chiim Idioang 70% ting vin DI), chi mgt so it von DI vao Viet Nam thong qua viec nguoi khong cu tni mua cac cong cu ng tai cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam [9].
Linh vuc CO dong vin diu tu true tiip nuac ngoai vao Viet Nam nhiiu nhit la ITnh vuc cong nghiep che bien, chi tao (chiim
58,36% tong sd von dau tu dang ky cua cac du an con hi$u lire din ngay 31/12/2017).
Cac ITnh vuc tiep den la ITnh vuc hoat dgng kinh doanh bat dgng san (chiim 16,65%
ting so vin dang ky); linh vuc san xuit, phan phoi di^n diing thir ba (chiim 6,51%
ting von dang ky); ITnh vuc dich vu luu tni va an uong chiim thii tu (voi 3,76%), va linh virc xay dimg chiim thii 5 (voi 3,39%
ting vin dang ky). Tinh din 31/12/2017, da CO 78 quic gia va vimg lanh thi co du an dau tu vao Viet Nam, trong do dan diu la Han Quic (chiim 18,1% ting vin dang ky), tiip din la Nhat Ban (chiim 15,4%
tong von dang ky), Singapore (chiem 13,3%) va Dai Loan (chiim 9,66%) [7].
Cimg voi qua trinh hgi nhap kinh ti cua Viet Nam, ben canh viec tiep nhan vin DI, Viet Nam cung thuc hien cac hoat dgng diu tu ra nuoc ngoai vdi so lugng ngay cang tang, tir miic 180 trieu USD nam 2007 len din 1,96 ty USD nam 2013. Til nam 2014 den nay, DI cua Viet Nam ra nugc ngoai Iai CO xu hudng giam va chi dat 540 trieu vao nam 2017 [9]. Xet trong ting von dang ky dau tu ra nude ngoai, niu tinh luy ki cac du an con hieu luc din ngay 31/12/2017, cac ITnh vuc CO vin diu tu cua Viet Nam chu yeu la ITnh virc khai khoang (chiim 40,1%);
nong nghiep, lam nghiep va thuy san (chiim 15,6%); san xuit va phan phii dien, khi dot, nude ndng, hai nude va diiu hga khong khi (chiim 7,5%); cong nghiep chi biin, che tao, chiim 5,3%; nghe thuat, vui choi vii giai tri (chiim 5,0%) [7].
Mgt diem can luu y la, theo hudng din cua IMF, vin DI thyc hi$n tren can can thanh toan chi bao gom giao dich giiia ngudi cu tni vdi ngudi khong cu tni, nen viec gop vdn cua phia Viet Nam trong cac doanh nghiep cd von dau tu nude ngoai se khdng dugc tinh tren can can thanh tcan. Vi du, nam 2015, vin DI thuc hien cua ca hai phia Viet Nam va nude ngoai do Bg Ki
Khoa hpc xa hoi Viet Nam, si U - 2018 hoach va Diu tu cong bo la 14,5 ty USD, khac vdi si lieu DI thuc hien tren can can thanh toan do Ngan hang Nha nude (NHNN) cong bd (11,8 ty USD). Chenh lech si lieu nay la do can can thanh toan da loai bd phin gdp vin 2,7 t^ USD tvr phia Viet Nam [8].
vi dau tu gidn tiip (PI), viec trd thanh thanh vien chinh thuc cua WTO cimg vdi su phat triin cua thi trudng chiing khoan Viet Nam da khiin niim tin cua cac nha diu tu nude ngoai vao Viet Nam tang vgt.
PI vao Viet Nam nam 2007 (nam dau tien la thanh vien chinh thiic ciia WTO) dat ban 6,2 ty USD, mirc cao nhit ke tir do den nay.
Tuy nhien, do su phat trien qua ndng ciia thi trudng chimg khoan vao nam 2008, nen cac dong von PI nude ngoai da bi dao chieu (578 trieu USD vin PI cua ngudi khong cu tru da chay ra khdi Viet Nam) va chi khdi phuc nhe vao nam 2009 (dat 128 trieu USD). Tuy nhien, ddng vdn nay da tang manh me vao nam 2010 vdi tdng sd vin PI vao Viet Nam hem 2,38 ty USD. Dong vin nay tiep tuc dugc chay vao Viet Nam trong giai doan tit nam 2011 din nam 2013 vdi khoang hon 1 ty USD mdi nam. Nam 2014, Viet Nam thu hut dugc rit it vin PI (chi cd 93 Uieu USD) va mgt lin niia, Viet Nam lai chiing kien su dao chieu ciia dong vdn nay vao nam 2015 vdi gia tri chay ra 65 tri$u USD. Nam 2016, vin PI nude ngoai da quay trd lai Viet Nam, dat khoang 48 trieu USD; nam 2017 tang vgt len, dat gin 1,89 ty USD do su phat hiin cua thi hudng chiing khoan va ci phin hoa cac doanh nghiep nha nude. Biin dgng manh ddng vdn PI nude ngoai vao Viet Nam da khiin can can PI tham hut trong cac nam 2008, 2009 va 2015 frong do mirc tham hut nam 2008 la ldn nhit (578 trieu USD); cic nam 2009, 2015, mitc tham hut chi khoang 70 trieu USD. Ben canh viec diu tu true tiip ra nude ngoai, Viet Nam cung da cd cac hoat
dgng dau tu gian tiip ra nude ngoai ke tir nam 2009. Tuy nhien, hoat dgng diu tu gian tiep ra nude ngoai cua Viet Nam cdn nhd Ie va chua nhit quan. Nam 2009, sd vdn Viet Nam diu tu ra nude ngoai l^ 199 trieu USD; nam 2010 la 13 trieu USD. Nam 2011, Viet Nam lai nit vin diu tu gian tiip d nude ngoai ve nude, khien cho gia tri dau tu cua Viet Nam ra nude ngoai trong nam nay la -348 trieu USD. Dieu nay cflng cd nghTa la da cd ddng vin PI Viet Nam d nude ngoai lai chay ngugc vao trong nude.
Cac nam 2012, 2013 va 2016, ddng vin PI cua Viet Nam d nude ngoai tiep tuc chay ngugc Iai ve trong nude. Dieu dd da khien cho gia tri PI rdng nam 2011 khdng hi sut giam qua nhieu. Dac biet trong nam 2016, sd vdn PI cua Viet Nam d nude ngoai chay vi nude cao gap gan 4 lan gia tri vdn PI rdng cua ngudi nude ngoai dau tu vao Vi$t Nam (180 trieu USD so vdi 48 trieu USD) [9].
vi dau tu khac (OI), trong sd cac can can ve dau tu thi can can 01 la bien dpng manh nhat va thudng xuyen tham hut.
Trong giai doan 2007-2017, can can 01 chi thang du trong 3 nam diu vdi gia tri thip va ngay cang giam. Sau dd, lien tuc tir nam 2010 den 2016, can can nay tham hut vdi gia tri bien dgng rit thit thudng, khi thi thip (khoang 0,5 ty USD), khi thi cao (khoang hem 9 ty USD). Nam 2017, can can 01 dat thjing du 4,75 ty USD. Nguyen nhan chu yeu la do hoat ddng diu tu khac cua nude ngoai vao Viet Nam cung nhu diu hi khac cua Vigt Nara ra nude ngoai dien ra rat sdi ddng. Vdn 01 tit nude ngoai vao Viet Nam hen tuc tang tit nam 2007 din nam 2009 va dat 5,1 ty USD nam 2009.
Ddng vdn nay cd su sut giam nhe vao nam 2010; tuy nhien, da dugc khdi phuc va gia tang trd lai vdi mirc chay vao Viet Nam hang nam khoang 4,8-5,7 ty USD tir
Nguyin Thi Vii Ha nam 2011 ddn 2016; nam 2017, 01 tii
nude ngoai vao Vidt Nam dat ban 14,6 !>- USD [9].
Vdn 01 nude ngoai vao Viet Nam thdng qua cae cdng cu na. Ngoai trir nam 2009, ddng vdn nay vao Viet Nam do vide phan bd Quydn nit vdn dac bidt (SDRs) vdi gia tii 417,19 tridu USD. Cac cdng cu ng nay chu ydu la do cdc ca nhan khdng cu tni diu tu d Vidt Nam. Gia tri 01 tir khu vyc khae vao Viet Nam dao dgng trong khoang 2,3 ty USD ddn 4,9 ty USD tii nam 2007 ddn 2012. Sau dd sut giam manh vao nam 2013 (ehi con 121 tiieu USD). Ddng vdn 01 tii khu vuc nay da duge phuc hdi vao nam 2014 dat 2,19 ty USD va 2015, dat 2,48 ty USD, nhung sau dd lai mdt lan nua sut giam cdn 26 tridu USD nam 2016; nam 2017 tang manh, dat gin 9,5 ty USD. Khu vuc chmh phu thuc hien dau tu khde d Vigt Nam bat dau tir nam 2012 vdi gia tri ban 1,78 ty USD, khidn cho gia tn 01 nude ngoai vao Viet Nam nam 2012 van cd su tang trudng so vdi nam 2011, mac du vdn 01 nude ngoai vao Viet Nam nam 2012 tir khu vue khac giam gan I ty USD so vdi nam 2011. 01 vao Viet Nam tir khu vuc ehinh phii duge duy tri d miie binh quan gin 3,0 ty USD/nam tir nam 2013 ddn 2016, sau dd giam xudng cdn gan 2,19 ty USD nam 2017. Viee khu vuc chinh phu nude ngoai thue hidn 01 tucmg ddi dn dinh d Viet Nam da giiip eho gia tri vdn OI nude ngoai vao Viet Nam khdng bi bidn ddng qua miic, dac biet ti-ong hai nam 2013 va 2016 khi 01 nude ngoai tu khu vve khac sut giam manh.
Cae to chiie tai chinh nude ngoai cimg thuc hien 01 vao Viet Nam tii nam 2013, khoang 610 hieu USD. Tuy nhidn, ddng vdn tii khu vuc nay bidn ddng manh, dae biet la, cd su dao chieu vao nam 2014 va 2015 vdi tdng gia tri ddng vdn chay ra la han 2 ty USD;
nam 2016, ddng von nay da quay lai Vidt
Nam dat ban 1,46 ty USD va nam 2017 dat 2,96 ty USD [9]. Xet vd thdi ban cua vdn thi ddng vdn vay dai ban va ngan ban vao Viet Nam van ddng theo hai xu hudng trai ngugc nhau. Trong nhihig nam diu sau khi gia nhap WTO (tii nam 2007 ddn 2009), ca vdn vay dai ban va ngan ban ddu chay vao Viet Nam, nhtmg bat diu tir nam 2010 thi chi ed von vay dai han \k chay vao Viet Nam vdi gia tri rdng dat binh quan khoang 4,0 ty USD/nam. Sd vdn vay dai ban dugc giai ngan ngay cang tang. Tuy nhien, sd tidn ng gde ma Viet Nam phai tra tir ddng vdn nay eiing ngay cang tang nam 2017, vdn vay dai ban giai ngan dat 13,7 ty USD, nhung sd tidn tra ng goc cGng dat 9,3 ty USD. Trong khi dd, vdn ngin ban lai lidn tuc chay ra khdi Viet Nam vdi sd lugng tham ehi cdn ldn hon so vdi vdn dai ban chay vao. Nam 2013, vdn dai ban chay vao dat 3,5 ty USD, vdn ngan ban chay ra dat 11,6 ty USD; nam 2015, vdn dai han chay vao dat 4,6 ty USD, vdn ngin han chay ra dat 14,2 ty USD [3], [4], [5]. Vdn ngin ban chay ra khdi Viet Nam chii ydu la do thay ddi trong tai san nude ngoai rdng. Dieu nay da tao ap Ivrc ldn cho vigc didu tidt eae ddng vdn d Viet Nam.
Ve tdi sdn du trie (RA), can can tai san du trii ghi nhan eac giao dich lidn quan ddn vide can thiep cua ngan hang trung uang vao du trii ngoai hdi. Do bidn ddng cae ddng vdn dau tu tuong ddi ldn ndn Ngan hang Nha nude da thudng xuyen sir dung tai san du tru" dd giam bdt ap luc len ty gia hdi doai. Khi cac ddng vdn chay vao nhieu, Ngan hang Nha nude da gia tang du trO ngoai hdi; khi eac ddng vdn dao chieu (vdn diu tu gian tidp va vdn dlu tu khae) thi Ngan hang Nha nude da giam du tiij ngoai hdi. Chinh vi vay, can cSn RA thudng xuyen tham hut (nghia la dy tiii tang). Chi cd 3 nam 2009, 2010 va 2015, can can RA
Khoa hoc xahoi Viet Nam. s6 11 -2018 mdi thang du. Vide thudng xuydn ean thiep vao dy ti^ ngoai hdi da khidn tdng dy tiir eua Viet Nam tang tir miic 23,48 ty USD nam 2007 ldn mtic 49,08 ty USD nam 2017 [9]. Mirc dy tiir nay tiiang duang vdi khoang 10 tiiin gia tii nhap khiu cua Viet Nam.
4. Ket lu^n
Sy bidn dgng BOP qude td cua Viet Nam tir sau khi Vidt Nam la thanh vidn chinh thirc Clia WTO thd hien d ba diem sau.
Thic nhdt, md cua va hdi nhap kinh te qudc te da khidn miic do phu thudc thuang mai eua Viet Nam vao thd gidi ngay cang tang, ty trgng kim ngach xuat nhap khau ciia Viet Nam trdn GDP ludn tang va chiem gan gap doi GDP cua Vi?t Nam. Didu nay cd nghTa la bat ky bien dgng nao vd gia ca thd gidi ciing anh hudng den ndn kinh td Viet Nam. Ngoai ra, trong nhung nam gan day, Vidt Nam ludn xuat sidu hang hoa va nhap sidu dieh vu, mac dii khu vuc djch vu ngay cang ed nhieu ddng gdp trong GDP, chidm 41,26% GDP nam 2017 [7]. Didu nay cho thay, Viet Nam ein chii trgng d i u tu hem vao ITnh vuc dich vu trong thdi gian tdi. Thang du CA la mgt didu ki?n tot dd Viet Nam thuc hidn cai each kinh td trong tuong lai.
Thu hai, md cira va hdi nhap kmh td qudc td da khidn chu chuydn vdn didn ra manh me d Vidt Nam. Tdng ddng vdn nude ngoai vao Vi?t Nam ludn ldn ban tdng ddng vdn tir Viet Nam ra nude ngoai. Nhu da phan tieh d trdn, trong cac ddng vdn nude ngoai vao Viet Nam thi vdn DI la dn dinh nhat, vdn dau tu gian tidp, ma dac biet la vdn d i u tii khac, bien dgng rit ldn nhimg tdng cdng cac ddng vdn nude ngoai rdng
vao Viet Nam tuong ddi dn dinh, dao dgng trong khoang 12 ddn 17 ty USD mdi nam, dae biet la nam 2017, khi tdng ddng v6n nude ngoai vao rdng dat ky lue 30,63 ty USD [9]. Day chinh la ngudn vdn quan trgng giup Viet Nam phat triln kmh te, nhung nd eiing gay ra cac ap luc ldn vifc didu hanh chinh sach tidn te va ty gia hdi dodi Clia qudc gia. Ben canh vide thu hiit duge cae ddng vdn nude ngoai vao thi hgi nhap kinh td qudc te cung khidn boat d§ng d i u tu Clia Viet Nam ra nude ngoai didn ra soi dgng. Dae bidt, trong eac giai doan bit dn kinh td vT md trong nude thi so vdn cua Viet Nam chay ra nude ngoai kha ldn, ma chil ydu la vdn dau tu khae.
Thu ba, hdi nhap ngay cang sau rdng vai ndn kinh td thd gidi va khu vyc khien cho tdng CA, KA (khdng tinh tai san dy tru) va sai sd, bd sdt hay cdn ggi la can can quyet toan ehinh thiie cua Viet Nam (can can tdng thd) bidn dgng tirang ddi ldn. Nam 2007, khi Vidt Nam nhan duge eac ddng dau tu eiia nude ngoai vao, can can quydt toan chinh thiic thang du 10,19 ty USD, nhung sau do, do khiing hoang kinh td thd gidi nam 2008 cimg vdi su xudng dde cua thi trudng ehiing khoan Viet Nam, can can quyet toan chinh thirc chi dat 0,43 ty USD, sau dd la tham hut 8,5 ty USD nam 2009.
Tham hyt can can quyet toan van con tiep tuc vao nam 2010 nhung vdi gia tri nho hon, khoang 1,8 ty USD. Nam 2011, can can quydt toan chinh thirc eiia Viet Nam da thang du nhimg vdi sd lugng cdn thap; nam 2012, thang du dat 11,85 ty USD; nam 2013, dat 0,56 ty USD do nhihig b i t dn ddng vdn nude ngoai vao; nam 2016 dat 8,39 ty; nam 2017 dat 12,55 ty USD [9].
Bien dgng can can quydt toan chinh thiie da gay ap lyc ldn ty gia hdi doai giira VND va USD khidn N H N N phai can thiep vao thi
Nguyen Thi Vii Ha trudng ngoEii hdi bang each thay doi dy trii.
Trong giai doan tii sau khi la thanh vidn chmh thiic cua WTO ddn nay, NHNN thudng xuydn can thiep tang dy trii ngoai hdi de giam bdt ap luc tang gia VND so vdi USD; chi trir nhimg nam ddng vdn dao chieu, NHNN mdi can thiep giam dy trO ngoai hdi. Cd thd thiy, Viet Nam da rit linh boat khi su dyng dy tru dd dam bao dn dinh ty gia hdi doai trdn thi trudng ngoai hdi nham thiic day tang trudng kinh te.
Chu thich
^ Balance of Payments and Intemational Investment Position Manual - BPM6.
^ Tli nam 1993, IMF thay tai khoan vin bing tai khoan von va tai chinh, theo do, lai khoan v6n (nSm trong tki khoan von va tai chinh) chi bao gom cac khoan chuyen nhiigng v6n don phuong, nhu x6a ng giua cac chinh phii. Do vay, tai khoan v6n theo nghTa nay la m^t khoan mi^c khong dang kh trong can can thanh toan.
* Phan nay chu yeu ph^n tich biSn dgng trong can can tai khoan tai chinh bcri Viet Nam chua ghi nhan cac giao dich trong can can tai khoan v6n theo chuin mai cua IMF (do cac giao dich nay chiem ty trong rat nho trong cac giao dich tai chinh ciia Viet Nam).
Tai lieu tham khao
[1] Nguyen Thj Vu Ha (2013), "Quan ly va Sihu tiet cac dong von nude ngoai va mot so ggi y cho Viet Nam", Tap chi Nhiing vdn di kinhui vd chinh tri the gidi, so 3.
[2] Nguyin Thi Vu Ha (2017), "Chu chuyin v6n quoc te 6 Viet Nam giai doiin 2006-2015", Tap chi KJioa hgc Xd hpi Vi$t Nam. s6 2.
[3] IMF (2012), Vietnam: 2012 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff ,Report,https://www.imf.org/en/PubHcations/C R/Issues/2016/12/31A'ietnam-Staff-Report- for-the-2012-Article-lV-Consultation-26046, tmy cap ngay 20/9/2018.
[4] IMF (2014), Vietnam: 2014 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues /2016/12/31/Vietnam-Staff-Report-for-the- 2014-Article-IV-Consultation-42391, truy c|p ngay 20/9/2018.
[5] IMF (2018), Vietnam: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues /2018/07/IO/Vietnam-2018-Article-IV- Consultation-Press-Release-and-Staff-Report- 46064, truy cap ngay 20/9/2018.
[6] https://sbv.gov.vn/webcenter/portal/vi/
menu/trangchu/tk/ccttqt?, truy c$p ngay 20/9/2018.
[7] http://gso.gov. vn/default.aspx?tabid=512
&idmid=5&ItemID=18938, tmy cap ngay 20/9/2018.
[8] https://www.sbv.gov, vn/webcenter/portal/
m/menu/trangchu/ddnhnn/nctd/nctd_chitiet?lef lWidth=0%25&showFooter=faIse&showHead er=false&dDocName=SBV280730&rightWidt h=0%25¢erWidth=100%25&_afrLoop=2 314203187990406#%40%3F_afrLoop%3D23 14203187990406%26centerWidth%3D 100%2 525%26dDocName%3DSBV280730%26!eft Width%3D0%2525%26rightWidth%3D0%25 25%26showFooter%3Dfalse%26showHeader
%3Dfalse%26_adf.ctrl-tate%3D1118qaiuay_9, truy cap ngay 20/9/2018.
[9] http://data.imf.org/?sk=7A51304B-6426-40C0- 83DD-CA473CAlFD52&sId= 1390030341854
