TINH TRANG KINH TE Vl MO VA TOC DQ DIEU CHINH DON BAY MUC TIEU NGHIEN ClJU TH^C NGHIEM T^l VIET NAM
NgSy nhSn:
Ngay nh^n lai:
Ngky duy|t d&ng:
Ma 8^:
23/9/2015 06/11/2015 10/01/2016
01+02-16-38
o6 ^fC^
Le Thi Lanh (*) Huynh Thi Cam Hd (**) Li Thi Hong Minh (***)
Tom tat: Bdi viit sd dung mo hinh dieu chinh cdu true vd'n tiCng phdn di nghiin ciXu dnh hUdng tinh trang kinh ti vi md (KTVM) din toe dd diiu chinh don bdy ui don bdy muc tieu, thdng qua dd lieu doanh nghiip Viet Nam (2005- 2014). Cdc biin so KTVM dung di xdc dinh tinh trang kinh te Id t^ sudt cd tdc thi trudng, cMnh lich ky han lai sudt vd tdc dd tdng trUdng GDP thiic. Kit qud cho thdy, cdc cdng ty dieu chinh ddn bdy ve ddn bdy muc tiiu khi nin kinh ti d tinh trang td't nhanh han d tinh trang kinh ti xdu, cho du cdng ty cd bi han chi tdi chinh hay khdng. 6 cap dd doanh nghiep, viic ton tai chi phi diiu chinh Idm cho cdng ty han chi tdi chinh cd tdc dd diiu chinh chdm han so vdi cdng ty khong cd han chi tdi chinh d tinh trang kinh ti xdu, trong khi dd d tinh trang kinh ti tot thi diiu ndy xdy ra ngiigc lai.
TiX khoa: Cdu true vdn (don bdy), tdc do dieu chinh, chi phi diiu chinh, tinh trang kinh ti vl md.
G i d i t h i ^ u
Ly thuyg't cdu true v6'n (danh doi, t r a t tU phan hang vd dinh th&i d i i m thi tru&ng) giai thich quyit dinh lua chon nguon tai tru cua doanh nghiep, nhUng cdc ly thuyg't nay kh6ng d i n g nhd't quan diem doanh nghiep hoat dSng xoay quanh dbn bdy tfi'i Uu. Cac bang chUng thuc nghiem gdn ddy lai ung h6 vi§c ton tai dbn bdy muc tieu (Fama va French, 2002; Flannery vd Rangan, 2006; Cook va Tang, 2010; Tzang, Wang vd Rahim, 2013).
gian d i diiu chinh va vigc d i i u chinh ve muc tigu dUtfc goi la toe dO d i i u chinh. Nhieu cong trinh da k i t hup ddc d i i m vi mo doanh nghiep va y i u t i KTVM khi nghign ci3u vigc dilu chinh don bay ve muc tieu, nhung h a n c h i cua cac nghign cUu la gia dinh cac doanh nghiep CO cung t i c do dieu chinh (Fama vd French, 2002; Flannery vd Rangan, 2006). Nghign ciJu cua Choe, Masulis vd Nanda (1993), Cook v^
Tang (2010) cOng cho r a n g tinh trang KTVM la ye'u t i quan trong quyet dinh n g u i n tdi trfl cua doanh nghigp.
Theo Castanias (1983), doanh nghiep se diiu chinh dbn bay thUc te' ve don bay muc tieu de cdn bdng Icfi ich va chi phi, nhdm t6'i da hoa gid tri doanh nghifp. Theo m6 hinh ly t h u y i t danh doi dong thi don bay muc tieu cua doanh nghigp CO t h i thay d i i theo thdi gian do tac dOng cua chi phi bat cdn xUng thfing tin, chi phi dai dign... Chinh tac dfing cua nhiJng yiu t6' nay lam doanh nghigp khong t h i lap tUc dieu chinh ve d i n bay muc tigu md can thcfi
Cac nghien cdu v l d6n bdy t a i Vi^t Nam la khong mdi, tuy n h i e n p h d n Idn tdc gia t§p trung vdo m i hinh dang tinh khi phdn tich cdc y i u to tdc dong d i n don bay (Do VSn Thang va Trinh Quang Thieu, 2010; Phan Thi Bich Nguyet, 2011; Lg Dat Chi, 2013) hodc cd nghien cUu d i n don bay muc tigu va t i c dS diiu chinh (Tran Hung Sdn, 2011; P h a m Tiin Minh va Nguyen Tig'n Dung, 2015) nhifng tdc gia chUa nghien cUu d cdc tinh t r a n g KTVM
^^ Hvi csngnghf n g 3 n Hdng
E i J S6' 118+119«Thang 01+02/2016
k h d c nhau. Muc tigu cua bdi v i i t khai thdc sif khdc bi^t ndy khi lam ro mi'i quan he giUa chi phi d i i u chinh, t i c d i d i i u chinh don bay ve muc tieu d cdc t i n h t r a n g KTVM. Nghien cUu se trd Idi cdc cdu hoi sau:
- Cdc t i n h t r a n g KTVM khdc nhau tdc dong nhu t h e nao d i n toe d i d i i u chinh don bay v i d i n b a y muc tieu?
- Chi phi dieu chinh a n h hudng nhU t h i nao den t i c d i d i i u chinh don bdy v i don bdy muc tigu d cdc t i n h t r a n g kinh tg'?
Cof s d ly t h u y e t v a hkng chiJTng thtf c n g h i e m Cd sd ly thuyit
Cdc nghign ciJu v l m i hinh ly t h u y i t ddnh d i i d i n g (Stiglitz, 1973; Kane, Marcus va McDonald, 1984; Goldstein vd Leland, 2001) da chiJng minh c i t i n t a i ti'c d i dieu chinh va chi phi d i l u chinh don bdy v i don bdy muc tieu. Su t h a y d i i v i t r i i n vong hoat dong cua doanh nghigp theo thdi gian, cung n h u t o n tai cdc chi phi t h a n h todn co tUc, chi phi dai dien, chi phi h a n c h i tdi chinh... k h i i n don bdy thUc t i l^ch khfii muc tigu va doanh nghiep cdn khoang thdi gian d i i u chinh. Tfi'c dO d i l u chinh khdc nhau gifla cdc doanh nghigp. T6'c dO d i i u chinh phu thuoc vao chi phi d i l u chinh.
Bgn canh do, d ly thuyg't ddnh doi thi don bay muc tieu dUUc xdc dinh d miJc can bdng gifla lui Ich tdm chan thue tU no vay va chi phi phd sdn.
Cd hai ye'u t i ndy diu phu thu^c vdo tinh trang kinh te. Bdi vi lui ich tit thue phu thu6c vdo mflc thu nhdp chiu t h u i vd mflc t h u i suat doanh nghiep - Id mOt hdm s i cua tinh trang KTVM.
Tfldng tu, xac sud^t kiet qu§ tdi chinh, vd nd hoac thua lo CO the tdc dOng d i n chi phi phd san. Thu tuc phd san phu thuic vao h^ thd'ng phap ly cua mot quoc gia, gdn lien vdi tinh trang KTVM cua mot da't nUdc. Vi vdy, b i i n ding v i tinh trang KTVM se tdc ddng den vi#c thay doi ddn bay muc tieu can dUdc xem xgt la yg'u to khi phdn tich ddn bay muc tigu cua doanh nghiep.
C a c b a n g chitfng thifc n g h i e m v a g i d t h u y e t n g h i i n ciJu
Moi quan ftp giiia td'c dg dieu chinh don bdy ve muc tieu vd tinh trgng kinh te vi mo Cook va Tang (2010) k i i m dinh tdc dgng cac b i i n s i KTVM de'n toe do d i i u chinh ddn bay v i muc tieu cua cac doanh nghigp My (1977-2006). B i i n so' chgnh l i c h ky h a n Idi sud't, chgnh lech Idi sud't trdi phieu, t i c d i tdng trudng GDP thUc vd ty suat co tflc thi trfldng Idn lUdt dUdc sfl dung de xac dinh t i n h t r a n g kinh te. K i t qua cho thd'y d tinh t r a n g n e n kinh te td't thi toe dd d i i u chinh ddn bay ve muc tieu n h a n h hdn d t i n h t r a n g kinh t e xa'u. Tzang vd ctg (2013) khi nghign cflu t a i Indonesia (1992-2010) lai cho thdy rang, doanh nghigp dieu chinh ddn bay n h a n h hdn d t i n h t r a n g n i n kinh ti xd'u. Hackbarth, Miao vd Morellec (2006) tim t h a y ngudng tdi cd'u true ddn bay cua doanh nghiep d tinh t r a n g kinh tg' td't thd'p hdn d tinh t r a n g kinh te' xdu, ngn t i c do dieu chinh ddn bdy trong tinh t r a n g kinh tg' td't hdn thi n h a n h hdn d t i n h t r a n g kinh te' xifu di.
(1) Chdnh Igch ky h a n lai suat (term spead) dUdc do ludng chenh Igch ky h a n Idi sudt la chenh lech gifla lai suat trdi phig'u chinh phu ky h a n 20 nam vd tin phig'u kho bac ky h a n 3 thang. Cook va Tang (2010) sfl dung cdc big'n so' chenh lech ky h a n lai sud't, td'c dd tang trudng GDP thuc vd ty sud't c i tflc thi trUdng lam b i i n sd' KTVM d i Ude lUdng vd xdc dinh tinh t r a n g kinh te. Drobetz va Wanzenried (2006) dung lai sud't tin phiiu kho bac ky han 3 thdng lam bie'n dai dign cho yg'u td' KTVM.
Stock va Watson (1989), Estrella va Mishkin (1998) cho rang gia tri b i i n so chgnh lech ky h a n cao dUdc xem nhfl la mdt yg'u to du bdo m a n h me cho n e n kinh tg' td't.
(2) T i c dd t a n g trUdng GDP thuc (GDP growth).
Nghign cflu cua Wanzenried (2002), Cook vd Tang (2010) tim tha'y quan he cung chiiu gifla ddn bay muc tigu va t i c do t a n g trudng GDP, Congnghe n g c l H h d H g P V I Sd'118-Hll9«Thang0lH-02/2016 E i i l
vi khi nen kinh t i co xu hUdng di Ign, doanh nghigp trUdc h i t t d n dung nguin nOi bo d i khai thdc cd hdi dau tU va khi nguon noi bd sfl dung h i t thi phat h a n h nd la lUa chon tai trd t i i p theo cua doanh nghiep.
(3) Ty sud't c i tflc thi trfldng (market dividend):
Drobetz vd Wanzenried (2006) cho rang mflc chi tra c i tflc thudng cd xu hUdng it b i i n dong ngn mdt mflc ty sud't co tflc cao cho thay gid chflng khoan t r e n thi trUdng giam di, dieu nay thudng xdy ra nhieu hdn d tinh t r a n g kinh t i xa'u, cd n h i i u bien ddng.
Anh hitdng cua chi phi dieu chinh den tdc dq dieu chinh dbn bdy ve mifc tiiu
thuc hi$n vi^c phdt h a n h ngay khi cd tM l a m dUdc.
Cook vd Tang (2010) sfl dung tidu chi hai chg' tdi chinh cua doanh nghi#p de chi kha ndng h a n c h i p h d t h d n h nguon tdi trd khi d i i u chinh ddn h^y thUc t i v i muc tigu. DSy cung dUdc xem la chi phi a n h hUdng din qua t r i n h d i i u chinh ddn bay ve ddn bdy muc tifiu.
Tac gia tim thd'y du doanh nghiep cd rdi wko h a n chd' t a i chinh hay khdng khi t i i p can v6i nguon v i n bgn ngodi, thi t i c dO diiu chinh ddn bdy cua doanh nghiep Id nhanh hdn khi d t i n h t r a n g kinh te td't.
Phitcfng p h a p n g h i i n cvtu Cac nghien cflu thUc nghiem tim thd'y td'c do
diiu chinh ddn bdy thUc tg' v i muc tieu cdn phu thudc vao chi phi d i dieu chinh ddn bay.
Nghign cflu cua Fama vd French (2002) cho mau 3.264 doanh nghiep My (1965-1999) dd chflng minh doanh n g h i | p cd xu hfldng dich chuyin ve ddn bay muc tieu, tuy nhidn khi hoat ddng, do cd su ton tai chi phi dieu chinh ddn bay, phdt sinh do chi phi thanh todn c i tflc, hoac chi phi dai dien, han c h i tdi chinh...
1dm doanh nghiep khdng kip phan flng trUdc sfl thay d i i nay k h i i n ddn bay thuc te' lech khdi muc tigu vd td'c do dieu chinh kha chdm, tfl 7-17% mdi nam.
Korajczyk vd Levy (2003) chia hai mau doanh nghigp d My: b a n c h i tdi chinh vd khdng h a n che tai chinh (1984-1998). H a n c h i tai chinh d ddy dUOc h i i u Id doanh nghigp bi can trd khi tie'p can n g u i n tai trd bgn ngodi. Tac gid phat h i | n dd'i vdi nhdm doanh nghigp khdng h a n c h i tdi chinh thi td'c dd diiu chinh ddn b^y theo hudng phan chu ky vdi yeu td kinh te vi md, nhung lai thuan chu k^ trong d nhdm doanh nghigp h a n c h i tai chinh. Tdc gid ung hg gia t h u y i t cdc doanh nghi#p khdng h a n c h i tai chinh thi cd n h i i u thdi gian hdn d i lUa chgn phat hdnh chflng khodn khi n i n KTVM d tinh t r a n g tot, cdn cdc doanh nghi$p h a n c h i t a i chinh thi se
Mdu quan sdt vd dii li^u
Bai viet chgn khoang quan s a t giai doan 2005-2014 d i thu t h d p dfl ligu bie'n so KTVM theo chuii thdi gian du dai n h a m xdc dinh tinh t r a n g kinh te'. Nghien cflu chgn cdc cong ty phi tai chinh dUdc niem y i t t r e n hai sfin chflng khodn Viet Nam Id TP.HCM vd B Ngi. Bai vie't cung loai ra cac cdng ty thieu n h i i u dfl li^u vi md doanh nghiep. Tfl hUiJi^
thu thdp tren, mdu cuii cung la dfl ligu bang cho 196 cdng ty trong 10 n a m quan sdt.
Dfl lieu co tflc, gid chflng khodn, s i lUdng cS phie'u vd cdc dfl lidu Iign quan khdc dUdc \iy til cd sd dfl lieu cua cdng ty chflng khoan Tai Vi§t (vietstock), cdng ty chflng khodn FPT, website cophieu68, website sd giao dich chflng khoin, bao cdo tai chinh. Dfl ligu dung de tinh tic dO tang trudng GDP thUc va chgnh l§ch ky han Idi sudt dUdc thu thdp tfl cd sd dfl heu IFS (International Financial Statistics) cfla IMF, PhUdng phdp nghien cUu
Nghien cflu k i thfla phfldng phdp vd md hinh Ude lUdng ca'u true v i n tflng phdn dfldc tich hup cua Cook va Tang (2010) d i danh gi^
t i c do diiu chinh ddn bdy v l muc tidu d c^c tinh t r a n g KTVM khdc nhau. Md hinh ndy
n i Congnghe n g a i i Hang
J Si'118-l-119»Thang 01+02/2016
dflgc tich hgrp tfl md h i n h d i i u chinh ca'u true vdn tLfng p h d n h a i giai doan cua Flannery va Rangan (2006). D i thflc hign d i i u nay, nhdm tdc gia tich h d p hai giai doan g i m : Giai doan 1: ude lUdng cac y i u td' tdc ddng de'n don b a y muc tigu cua doanh nghigp. PhUtfng t r i n h (1) xac dinh chiiu hfldng tac ddng cdc y i u t i vi md doanh nghigp vd yeu t i KTVM d i n ddn b^y muc tigu cho todn mau quan sat, chfla p h d n theo t i n h t r a n g kinh te':
D*t = yMarcoj^t •+ pXj^t-l (1) Trong dd: Dj^la ddn bay muc tigu cua cdng ty i t a i thdi d i i m t, y la vec td hg si' bie'n KTVM (Macro), p la vec td hg s i cua bie'n dai dien cho dac d i i m vi md doanh nghiep (X).
I Giai doan 2: Ude Ifldng td'c do dieu chinh I ddn b ^ y ve muc t i e u d t i n h t r a n g KTVM E khdc n h a u :
Di, = 5(D*t - Di^t.i) + 8i,t (2) I Trong dd: Dj j. va Dj^.i ddn bdy thflc tg' cua ii doanh nghiep i vdo thdi d i i m t vd t - 1 , hd sd is 8 la t i c dO d i i u chinh khi ddn bdy thflc te d 11-1 lech khdi muc tieu va dieu chinh ve thdi
diem t.
J
^ Nhdm tdc gid t h i phUdng t r i n h (1) vao (2) va I sdp xep lai dUdc phUdng t r i n h (3):
Di_t=(l-5)D,,t-i + SpXi_t.i+&yMarcot.i-H£i,t (3) . Cac budc nghien cflu thuc nghi$m dUdc tie'n
; hdnh tfl phuung t r i n h (3) g i m :
- Budc 1: iJdc lUdng t i c do dieu chinh ddn bdy v i muc tidu d t i n h t r a n g KTVM khdc nhau, D- vd Dl t.i dfldc do Ifldng theo hai cdch: ddn bdy theo gid tri s i sdch vd theo gia thi trfldng.
(1-5) Id h# s i cua b i i n tre ddn bdy, tfl dd bdi vig't t i n h dUdc gid tri S d i do ludng td'c dd dieu chinh ddn bay thUc t i v i muc tieu.
Macroj.^: cac b i i n KTVM tai thdi d i l m t-1. Cac bie'n so' KTVM vfla dung lam bien d i e Idp, d i n g thdi cung dUtfc dung de xac dinh tinh t r a n g kinh te'. Thd'ng nha't vdi cdc nghidn cflu trfldc ddy, bai v i i t sfl dung cdc bii'n: chdnh lech lai sud't, tdng trudng GDP va ty sudt c i tflc thi trudng lam bien KTVM. Nhdm tdc gia ky vgng rang ti'c do dieu chinh ddn bdy se cao hdn khi ty sud't co tflc d mflc thd'p hdn. Gia thuyg't nghien cflu dUdc de xud't nhfl sau:
Gia thuyet H I : Khi tinh t r a n g KTVM phdn loai theo chenh lech ky b a n lai sud't, t i c dd dieu chinh ddn bdy v l muc tieu la n h a n h hdn d tinh t r a n g kinh tg' td't.
Gia thuyet H2: Khi tinh t r a n g KTVM phdn loai theo td'c do t a n g trfldng GDP thuc, td'c do d i i u chinh ddn bdy ve muc tidu la n h a n h hdn khi tinh t r a n g n i n kinh t i td't.
Gia t h u y i t H3: Khi tinh t r a n g KTVM p h a n loai theo ty sudt c i tflc thi trUdng, td'c do dieu chinh ddn bdy v l muc tieu la nhanh htfn d t i n h t r a n g kinh te' t i t .
Xj^.^: cdc yg'u t i vi md cua doanh nghigp i tai thdi d i i m t - 1 , g i m cd:
MB la ty so' gid thi trfldng trgn gia tri so sach cua tong tdi san. Theo ly thuyg't danh d i i , ly thuyg't dinh thdi diem thi trfldng vd nghien cflu thflc nghiem cua Cook va Tang (2010), Flannery vd Rangan (2006) thi MB cao se giam t a i trtf tfl nd vi cdng ty khai thdc vide dinh gid sai vd'n c i phdn tfl phdt h d n h vd'n mdi. L;^ thuye't t r d t tfl phdn h a n g thi cho rdng cdng ty se gia tdng ddn bdy khi cdc khoan ddu tfl da xai vUdt qud n g u i n vd'n ndi bd.
TANG Id ty s i tdi san c i dinh hflu hinh trgn t i n g tdi san. Titman vd Wessels (1988), Cook vd Tang (2010) cho r a n g cdng ty cd tdi san c i dinh hflu hinh cao thfldng d i p h a t h d n h nd htfn vi dfltfc ddm bao bang tdi san the' chd'p, giup cdng ty giam chi phi kidt qud tdi chinh vd thidt h a i khi pha san.
cdngnghg n g a i i H f i n g • •
Sill8+119«Thdng01-l-02/2016 U
B a n g 1: M o t S c a c b i i ' n
T d n b i e n Ky h i ^ u C a c h d o Itfotng
Biin sd ddn bdy Ddn bay theo gia
tri s i sach BL (book leverage) Tong n d / T i n g t a i s a n Ddn bay theo gid
thi trudng
ML (market
leverage) T i n g nd/Tong gid t r i t h i trUdng tdi sdn Nhom. biin sd vi mo
Lai suEit trdi p h i i u chinh phu ky h a n 5 nfim - suat t i n phie'u kho 3 t h a n g
Chdnh Idch ky
h a n lai suat Term spread Td'c dp t a n g
trudng GDP thUc GDP growth Mflc t a n g t r u d n g GDP thUc (nSm) Ty suat co tflc thi
trUdng Market dividend
Ty sd' gifla tong gid t r i c i tflc cua danh muc I chflng khodn t r d n hai sdn (theo ty trgng) thdi diltg t-1 va t i n g gia t r i cua d a n h muc t a i thdi diim t.
EBIT la b i i n do ludng kha nang sinh Idi cua doanh nghiep (thu nhdp hoat dong trgn t i n g tdi sdn). Dd'i vdi big'n nay cd hai quan d i i m trdi ngUdc nhau. Flannery vd Rangan (2006), Cook va Tang (2010) cho rang kha nang sinh Idi cang cao thi doanh nghiep se gifl lai n h i i u Idi nhudn nen han c h i nhu cdu phdt h a n h nd.
Ly thuyit ddnh d i i thi cho rang cdng ty cd Itfi nhudn cao nen sfl dung n h i l u no de tdn dung Idi ich tdm chan thue'.
DEP la tf s i t i n g gid tri khd'u hao chia cho tong tdi san. Flannery vd Rangan (2006), Cook va Tang (2010) tim thd'y doanh nghiep cd chi phi kha'u hao cang cao it cd xu hudng phdt hdnh nd vi muc dich ta'm chan thue', do td'm chdn t h u i khdng cd nguin gd'c tfl ntf xud't phdt tfl chuyin IS hoat ddng thudn.
LNTA Id big'n dai dign cho quy md doanh nghigp (gia tri logarit cua tong tai san). Ly t h u y i t ddnh doi vd nghien cflu cua Cook va Tang (2010) cho rdng cdng ty cd quy md cang Idn thudng sfl dung ddn bay cao vi mflc do b i i n dgng ddng t i i n thdp htfn ngn dg tig'p can vdi thi trudng tdi chinh.
SE, UNI Id hai b i i n so the hidn dac trUng rigng cua doanh nghiep (SE la ty s i chi phi ban hdng trgn doanh thu thudn, UNI la ty s i gia v i n hdng bdn t r e n doanh thu thuan).
Titman (1984) vd Hovakimian, Hovakimian va Tehranian (2004) cho rdng cdng ty cd SE
E c6ngn^ ngan hang
S i 118+H9»Thang 01-H02/2016
va UNI cang cao t h i t h u d n g cd sdn phdm dflc trflng rieng k h i i n doanh nghidp khd khSn khi t h a n h ly t a i s a n , cd the lam cho chi phi pha san t a n g cao, n e n doanh nghigp tU hao ve minh b a n g each b a n che' sfl dung ddn biy, Dd'i vdi ke't qua hoi quy trong Bang 5 vk 6, sau khi thflc hien cdc k i i m dinh Likelihood ratio, Breusch - Pagan Lagrangian multipliH va Hausman, k i t qua cho thd'y md hinh cii hieu flng c i dinh Id phu htfp nhd't. Kiem dinh White phat hidn md hinh cd phfldng sai thay d i i . Vi vdy, bai v i i t Ude Ifldng bdng phuidng phap hoi quy binh phUdng nhd nhdt ting quit GLS (Generalized Least Squares).
D i xdc dinh t i n h t r a n g td't vd tinh trang xi\i cua b i i n so KTVM, tdc gid chia chuii dfl li^u 10 n a m t h a n h 5 nhdm (ngu p h a n vi) cua tiing b i i n so' vi md dua trdn nghign cflu cua Cook vi Tang (2010), Tzang vd ctg (2013). Dd'i vdibi^n so term spread va GDP growth, tinh tr?ng kinh te' t i t Id cdc n a m thudc hai nhdm c6 gii tri (%) cao nh^t, t i n h t r a n g n i n kinh titnog binh thudc hai nhdm d gifla vd tinh trang nin kinh t i xa'u la cdc ndm thudc nhdm gid tri (%) thd'p nha't. D i i vdi market dividend, c^c nam cd nhdm gia tri (%) tha'p nha't dfltfc xfie dinh thudc t i n h t r a n g kinh t i t i t , tinh trang n i n kinh te trung binh t h u i c hai nhdm d giila vd cac n a m thudc hai nhdm gid tri (%) caO nha't dUdc xdc dinh d tinh t r a n g nen kinh t^
xdu (Bang 2). Dong nha't nghien cflu cua Cook
B&
Quintile Quintile 1 Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Quintile 5
n g 2: B a n g x a c d i n h t i n h t r a n g td't v a xa'u c u a t i n h t r a n g KTVM Term spread
N a m 2006 2008 2007 2005 2013 2009 2014 2012 2010 2011
%
4,020 3,870 3,390 2,620 1,860 0,960 0,860 0,830 -0,760 -1,150
Tinh t r a n s T T T T B T B T B T B X X X
GDP growth N a m
2007 2005 2006 2010 2008 2014 2011 2013 2009 2012
%
8,480 8,400 8,200 6,780 6,180 5,980 5,890 5,420 5,320 5,250
Tinh t r a n g
T T T T B T B T B T B X X X
M a r k e t dividend N a m
2013 2014 2011 2012 2008 2005 2009 2010 2007 2006
%
3,170 3,080 2,560 2,490 1,550 1,170 0,960 0,750 0,720 0,300
Tinh t r a n g
X X X T B T B T B T B T T T Ghi chii: T: tot; X- xdu; TB: trung binh
va Tang (2010), Tzang vd ctg (2013), b a i vig't
!tap trung nghidn cflu sfl k h a c biet t i n h t r a n g : K T V M td't va xa'u.
- Bfldc 2: Chi phi dieu chi ddn bdy vd td'c d6 dieu chinh ddn bdy muc tigu d cdc tinh t r a n g -KTVM
Nghien cflu sfl dung tigu chi h a n che tdi chinh fdoanh nghiep d i chia mdu doanh nghiep b a n c h i p h a t h a n h nguon t d i trd, ddc biet la ntf . vay 1dm can trd viec d i i u chinh don bay thflc t e ' v i ddn bdy muc tieu. Ddy cung dUtfc xem chi phi a n h hfldng d e n qua t r i n h d i l u chinh ddn bay cua doanh nghiep. Nghign cflu sfl dung ty .so kha n a n g t h a n h toan chi phi t a i chinh cua doanh nghiep (interest coverage) trong nghign cflu cua Caballero, Teruel vd Solano (2014) de
•phan loai n h d m doanh nghigp h a n c h i tai . chinh vd n h d m doanh nghiep khdng h a n che'
t a i chinh. Ty so ndy dUtfc xdc dinh bdng thu n h a p boat dong t r e n chi phi t a i chinh. Quan s a t (nam - cdng ty) dUdc xem la h a n che' tai chinh (khdng b a n c h i tai chinh) khi interest coverage cua quan s a t thd'p (cao) hdn gia tri trung vi cua todn bd mdu. Xet d cd'p d i doanh nghigp, mdu nghign cflu dUdc chia t h a n h hai mdu nho: doanh nghiep h a n chg' tdi chinh va mdu cdn lai doanh nghiep khdng b a n c h i tdi chinh. Bai vig't sfl dung phUtfng t r i n h (3) de fldc Ifldng cho tflng mdu doanh nghiep d mdi tinh t r a n g kinh tg' td't va xa'u.
K e t q u a n g h i e n c t t u v a t h a o l u $ n Thdng ke mo td
P h d n A vd B cua Bang 3 cho b i i t cdc gid tri thd'ng kg cua cac big'n ddn bdy thflc te' d tinh t r a n g kinh te t i t va xa'u, dUdc xac dinh bdi B a n g 3: Thtfng k e md t a bifi'n d o n b a y t h e o t i n h trang KTVM
Term spread Trung binh | Trung vi
GDPg Trung binh
rrowth Trung vi
Market dividend Trung binh P h i n A Mo ta th^ng k6 d6n b£y theo gia tri sd sach qua cac tinh trang kinh te T o t
X i u T v s . X
0,511 0,499 0,012
0,541 0,543 -0,002
0,537 0,501 0,036
0,565 0,528 0,037
0,513 0,503 0,01 P h a n B M6 t a thS'ng ke d6n b^y theo gia tri thi tructng qua cac tinh trang kmh T6't
X i u T v s . X
0,548 0,636 -0,088
0,558 0,683 -0,125
0,501 0,598 -0,097
0,503 0,649 -0,146
0,527 0,601 -0,074
Trung vi 0,547 0,543 0,004 t e
0,535 0,657 -0,122
cangnghs n g s n H s n g PP|
S6'118+119«Thang01+02/2016 l l f i l
cdc bien vi ma. 6 m6i bien vi m6, nh6m tdc gia trinh bay gi4 tri trung binh, trung vi d tinh trang kinh t l t6't va xi'u va gia tri chenh l$ch gitta tinh t r a n g t6't v4 xa'u (T vs. X) cua bien d6n bay. T h f e g ke cho tha'y, d bifo don bSy theo gi4 thi triidng, cac doanh nghiep trong m l u quan sat deu co don bay d t i n h trang kinh te xa'u cao hon d tinh t r a n g kinh t£ tot. Day la dac tinh phan chu ky p h a n a n h miJc do sii dung don bay vi trong giai doan kinh tS' bung no, khi kha nang chia se rui ro duac cai thien thi vigc gia t a n g miSc do qudn ly tai chinh se tao dieu k i | n cho nguon von CO p h I n thay the dSn nfl vay. Tuy nhien, d bie'n d6n bay theo gia tri 36 sach, thi dac tinh phan chu ky kh6ng diicfc th^ hien ro rang vi d6n b^y d tinh trang kinh t l tot thi cao hon mOt chiit. Dieu nay cho tha'y, d tinh t r a n g kinh t6' tot thi ditdng nhU cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam van t§n dung nguon no vay trong CO clu ngu6n von.
Ma tr^n h^ so tUtfng quan Bang 4 the hi^n m i i tUcfng quan giiJa cdc 1 so dlioc suf dung trong mo hinh. H6 s i tii(Jaf quan gifla cac b i l n khd t h i p . HO s i cao ni^t (0,8617) t h e hiOn tuong quan giBa BL vd Ml, nhung hai b i l n ndy dUcfc thay t h i d l do liijfng dbn bay, khong chung mOt phuong trinh nSii van d l da cgng t u y I n se khSng xay ra. Cache s i tuong quan c6n lai d i u nh6, h l u h i t tMp hon 0,65. Do do, h i ^ n tUOng da c6ng tuyfi khOng phai la v i n d l trong bO dU lieu. j Kit qud thuc nghifm
Phan nay trinh bay k i t qua toe dO dilu chinh don b^y ve dbn b i y muc tiSu va chi chi phi di^u chinh d tinh trang KTVM t i t vd xlu. Thing nhat vdi Cook vd Tang (2010), nghiOn ciJu % trung phan tich SU khdc b i i t t i c d6 diSu chinh S tinh trang kinh t l t i t vd xlu, nSn bai viet B&ng 4: Ma t r $ n ttfofng q u a n
B L
M L
EBIT
M B
TANG
LNTA
D E P
SE
U N I
Market
Term spread GDP growth
B L 1
0,8617 0,0000 -0,3623 0,0000 0,0427 0.0811 0,0259 0.2597 0,2364 0,0000 -0,0474 0,0601 -0,1472 0.0000 0,234 0,0000 -0.0325 0,1659 0,0376 0,1013 0.0665 0,0037
M L
1
-0,4170 0,0000 -0,3433 0,0000 0,0130 0,5941 0,1883 0.0000 -0,0732 0,0044 -0,1634 0,0000 0,2497 0,0000 0,0988 0,0001 -0,1097 0,0000 -0,1588 0,0000
EBIT
1
0,2406 0,0000 -0,0096 0,6753 -0,097 0.0000 0,2274 0,0000 0,0267 0,2524 -0,2729 0,0000 -0,1703 0,0000 0,0233 0,3099 0,0967 0,0000
M B
1
0,0606 0,0132 0,1182 0.0000 0,0461 0.0727 0.0488 0,0497 -0.1174 0.0000 -0,1061 0.0000 0,1528 0,0000 0,2425 0,0000
TANG
1
0,1137 0.0000 0,3411 0.0000 -0,0204 0,382 -0,119 0.0000 -0,0313 0,1727 0,0132 0,5651 0,0129 0,5752
LNTA
1
-0,0553 0,0283 0,0648 0,0054 0,0786 0,0006 0,2159 0,0000
•0,2021 0,0000 -0,2413 0,0000
D E P
1
-0,0346 0,1777 -0,193 0,0000 -0,0643 0.0107 0,0586 0,0201 0,0626 0,013
S E
1
-0,2426 0,0000 0,0479 0,0399 -0,0223 0,3379 -0.0268 0,2498
U N I
1
0,0460 0,0452 -0,0079 0,7318 -0,0328 0,1537
Market dividend
1
-0,3970 0,0000 -0,6819 0,0000
Term spread
1
0,5446 0,0000
GDP
ETTOWth.
J 2
M
m
.isi %
1
1
I angn9h« n g d n h a n g
I S I 118+119«Thang 01+02/2016
k h i n g bdo cao kg't qua hg s i hoi quy cua b i i n s i vi md doanh nghigp trong Bang 5 vd 6.
0 B a n g 5, tfl c6t 3 d i n cdt 5 (tfl cot 6 d i n cdt 8) la k i t qua fldc lUdng toe do dieu chinh d t i n h t r a n g k i n h te td't, xa'u va mdu gop khi
ddn b^y dUdc tinh todn theo gid tri s i sdch (ddn bay theo gia thi trUdng). De k i i m dinh khac bigt td'c do d i i u chinh gifla tinh t r a n g kinh t i t i t vd xa'u cd xay r a t a i Viet Nam hay khdng, bdi vie't dUa vao bie'n tUdng tdc (G0ODDUMMY*Dt_i), dUdc xac dinh bang B d n g 5: : Ke't q u a h o i q u y vJ-cfc lii'cfiig t o e AQ d i ^ u c h i n h d o n b a y
v e d 6 n b^y m u c t i ^ u
Phdn A. Tdc dd diiu Dt-l
Std. Err.
P.value>z GOODDUMMY Std. Err.
P.value>z GOODDUMMY*
D+.1 Std. Err.
P.value>z Obs Prob>chi2 Phdn B. T6'c dd dieu Ot-1
Std. Err.
P. value >z GOODDUMMY Std. Err.
P.value>z GOODDUMMY*
Std. Err.
P.value>z Obs Prob>chi2 Phdn C. T6c dd diiu Dt-l
Std. Err.
P.value>z GOODDUMMY Std. Err.
P,value>z GOODDUMMY*
Std. Err.
P. value >z O b s Prob>chi2 Ghi chii: *»* cd y^ nghia
Book leverage To't 1 X£i:u 1 T v s . X
Market leverage
Tgt Xa'u T vs. X
chinh don bdy khi tinh trang KTVM la Market dividend 0,833***
0,014 0,000
4 4 3 0,000
0,960***
0,005 0,000
3 2 1 0,000
0,965***
0,018 0,000 0,112***
0,024 0,000 -0,105***
0,020 0,000 764 0,000
0,711***
0,016 0,000
443 0,000 chinh ddn bdy khi tinh trang KTVM la. Term spread
0,814***
0,015 0,000
4 2 0 0,000
0,967***
0,010 0,000
5 1 8 0,000
0,947***
0,015 0,000 0,055***
0,016 0,000 -0,094***
0,019 0,000 9 3 8 0,000
0,790***
0,016 0,000
4 1 8 0,000 chinh don bdy khi tinh trang KTVM Id GDP growth
0,802***
0,023 0,000
2 8 8 0,000 thSng k% miic
0,947***
0,007 0,000
4 9 1 0,000
%
0,933***
0,012 0,000 -0,158***
0,071 0,025 -0,102***
0,019 0,000 779 0,000
0,685***
0,026 0,000
2 8 8 0,000
0,929***
0,009 0,000
3 2 1 0,000 0,872***
0,015 0,000
518 0,000 0,928***
0,012 0,000
4 9 1 0,000
0,983***
0,022 0,000 0,606***
0,037 0,000 -0,245***
0,027 0,000
764 0,000 0,837***
0,023 0,000 0,289***
0,029 0,000 -0,117***
0,031 0,000 936 0,000 0,943***
0,021 0,000 -1,578***
0,116 0,000 -0,221***
0,031 0,000 779 0,000
cangngu n g a n hang • • •
S I 118+119 •Thing 01+02/2016 K i J
b i l n trS don b i y (Dt-i) ™ b i l n gid tinh t r a n g kinh t l GOODDUMMY (nhan gia tri bang 1 n l u quan sat thu6c t i n h t r a n g kinh t l tot va nguac lai, n h a n gia tri bkng 0).
P h a n A trinh bay k i t qua t i c do d i l u chinh don b i y ve muc tieu khi t i n h t r a n g KTVM xac dinh bdi market dividend. K i t qua cho t h i y , ca hai truSng h a p do ludng don b I y , t i c do dilu chinh don bay d t i n h t r a n g kinh t l t i t nhanh hon d tinh t r a n g kinh t l x l u , dong n h a t vdi nghiSn cdu eda Cook va Tang (2010). Khi kinh t l ViSt Nam dUOc doanh nghiep ky vong t a n g trUdng t i t thi t i c da d i l u chinh se nhanh hon. Cu t h e , doi vdi h£lm h i i quy cua b i l n phu thu6c la don bay so sach thi toe do dieu chinh trung binh ciia doanh nghiep khoang 16,7% mot nam (do he so h i i quy 1-8 cua b i l n D,.; 14 83,3%, co y nghia miic 1%) d l dieu chinh tii don bay thuc t l v l muc tigu d tinh t r a n g kinh te tfi't va 28,9% la t i c do dilu chinh trung binh d i i vdi don bay theo gia thi trUdng. O tinh t r a n g kinh t l xa'u, t i c do d i l u chinh don b I y chi 14 4% (d6n bay theo gid tri so sach) va 7,1%
(don bay thi trudng). P h I n B v4 C cho b i i t
k i t qua k h i t i n h t r a n g kinh t l dUcfc xdc dint I a n luat bdi t e r m spread va GDP growth. Kft qua cung cho t h i y t i c dO dieu chinh don My d t i n h t r a n g kinh t l t i t thi n h a n h hon, khi don b^y duac t i n h theo ca gia t r i s i s4chv4 t h i trudng.
Ngoai ra, he so hoi quy ciia GOODDUMMp D,.i d i u 4m, cd y nghia mile 1%, cu the lij s i hoi quy la -0,105 d c6t 5 trong trudng hjp ddn b I y s i sSch (-0,245 d c0t 8 trong triltog h a p ddn bay t h i trudng), d i l u n4y cang khang dinh toe dd d i l u chinh d t i n h t r a n g kinh titft t h i n h a n h 4 t i n h t r a n g kinh t l xau.
Bang 6 k i l m dinh lieu r a n g chi phi dieu chinh a n h hudng nhU t h i nao den toe do dieu chinh d t i n h t r a n g kinh t l tot va xau. Nhdm tdcg^
Ude luong phuang t r i n h (3) cho hai mau doa^
nghiep khdng h a n c h i t4i ehinh (phan A) vi h a n e h l t4i chinh (phan B).
Vdi (1-5) Ian luat la cac h^ so hoi quy ciia B_D,_i va M_Dt.i (bien t r i don bay theo gii tri so sach v4 gi4 thi trUdng), tU dd tinh dm t i e dd dieu ehinh 14 6. T h i n g nha't vdi Cook B a n g 6: Kg't q u a h6i q u y clio m a u d o a n l i n g h i e p
k h d n g h a n che' t a i c h i n h v a h a n c h e t a i c h i n h M a r k e t d i v i d e n d
Td't 1 Xa'u
T e r m s p r e a d T i t 1 Xa'u
G D P g Td't
TOWth ii X l u J PhAn A Ttir dn dipii chinh don bdv (doanh nsiSo khong han chi tdi chinh) B D , . ,
T i c d o d i i u c h i n h p - v a l u e M D,.T T i c dd d i e u c M n h p - v a l u e
0 , 8 3 4 0 , 1 6 6 0 . 0 0 0 0 , 7 4 3 0 , 2 5 7 0 , 0 0 0
0 , 8 8 4 0 , 1 1 6 0 . 0 0 0 0 , 8 5 0 , 1 5 0 , 0 0 3
0 , 7 9 7 0 , 2 0 3 0 . 0 0 0 0 , 7 4 7 0 , 2 5 3 0 , 0 0 0 Phdn B: Toe do diiu chinh don bdy (doanh nghiep h B D , ^ ,
T i c dd d i e u c h i n h p - v a l u e M D , , , T o e dd d i l u e h i n h p - v a l u e
0 , 7 9 1 0 , 2 0 9 0 . 0 0 0 0 , 6 0 7 0 , 3 9 3 0 , 0 0 0
0 , 5 1 0 , 4 9 0 0 , 0 0 8 0 , 9 7 8 0 , 0 2 2 0 , 0 0 0
0 , 7 9 1 0 , 2 0 9 0 . 0 0 0 0 , 7 2 2 0 , 2 7 8 0 , 0 0 0
0 , 9 4 1 0 , 0 5 9 0 . 0 0 0 0 , 7 8 8 0 , 2 1 2 0 , 0 0 0
0 , 7 7 3 0 , 2 2 7 0 . 0 0 0 0 , 6 9 1 0 , 3 0 9 0 , 0 0 0
0,874 0,126 0.000 0,872 0,128 0,000 . ire chi tai chinh)
0 , 9 6 5 0 , 0 3 5 0 . 0 0 0 0 , 8 3 0 , 1 7 0 , 0 0 0
0 , 7 2 7 0 , 2 7 3 0 . 0 0 0 0 , 5 3 9 0 , 4 6 1 0 , 0 0 0
0 , 9 7 8 ' 0 , 0 2 2 O.OOO J 0 , 9 2 6 .4 4 0 , 0 7 4 0 , 0 0 0 J
m Congnghe n g a n H a n g .
So 118+119»Thang 01+02/2016
v^ Tang (2010), bai vi^t khong b^o cao kit qua he si ude lUdng big'n vi mo doanh nghiep t r o n g phifong t r i n h (3).
He so hoi quy to'c dS dieu chinh d Bdng 6 h a u h e t d^u CO miJc y nghia 1% d hai mSu nho doanh n g h i e p . Cu t h e , khi t i n h t r a n g KTVM dufa v^o t e r m spread thi toe d6 d i l u chinh don bay theo gia t i s6 sach d t i n h t r a n g kinh ti tit (0,203 tiic t r u n g binh m6t n a m \k 20,3%) la n h a n h hcfn d t i n h t r a n g kinh t e xau (5,9%) cho mSu doanh nghidp khong h a n che t a i chinh.
N h a n dinh n a y cung t h o n g nha't khi bien d6n b^y t i n h theo gia tri thi trUdng (25,3% n h a n h horn so vdi 21,2%). N h S n dinh n a y cung phii hc(p cho m l u doanh nghigp h a n che t a i chinh.
Di^u n a y cho thsiy du co hay kh6ng cd h a n 1 che t^i chinh thi cac doanh nghigp co toe do I dieu chinh don bay Ithi t i n h t r a n g kinh te tot
! nhanh hcfn t i n h t r a n g kinh ti xiu. Kit qua nay d6ng nhli't vdi nghi§n ciJu cua Cook va Tang (2010), ngoai trCf trudng hcrp ddn bay I theo gia tri so sach cua m§u doanh nghigp : h a n ch^ t a i chinh khi t i n h t r a n g KTVM dUdc : xac dinh bdi market dividend vi khi do to'c do dilu chinh ddn b^y d t i n h t r a n g kinh te* to't c h | m hcfn so vdi t i n h t r a n g kinh t ^ suy thodi (20,9% so vdi 49%).
6 cap do p h a n loai cSng ty, khi t i n h t r a n g I kinh ti xiu, doanh nghiep h a n chg' tai chinh cd toe dd dieu chinh chSm hcfn doanh nghiep
; khong h a n chg' t a i chinh, Cu th^, khi t i n h . trang KTVM dUa vao term spread thi nhdm
• cong ty h a n chg^ t a i chinh cd td'c do dieu chinh trung binh m d t n a m la 3,5% cham hdn so vdi nhdm cdng ty khdng b a n che' tai chinh la 5,9%
• (ddn b^y theo gia tri so sach) va 17% cham I htfn 21,2% (ddn b a y theo gia t h i trifcfng). N h a n dinh ndy tifcfng tif cho tinh t r a n g KTVM khi I dna vao GDP growth v^ market dividend. Kg't , lu^n n a y d i n g n h a t vdi Korajczyk va Levy (2003), Cook vk Tang (2010). Khi n i n kinh te xau di t h i cac cdng ty deu cd n h a n g khd k h a n khi tig'p c^n nguon t&i trcf bdn ngoai khie'n toe dd dieu chinh cham hcfn so vdi t i n h t r a n g k i n h te' td't, nhihig d mile do khac nhau, cac
cdng ty h a n chg' t a i chinh se gap khd k h a n nhieu hdn de duy tri thu n h a p h o a t ddng du d a m bao t h a n h toan chi phi tki chinh, trong dd CO ca chi phi lai vay, khie'n n h ^ dau td e ngai khi cung c§,'p nguon tai trd, trong dd cd ncf mdi, lam cho doanh nghiep h a n che' t a i chinh khd k h a n hdn khi d i l u chinh ddn bay v l muc tieu.
NhUng ng'u xet n i n kinh te' d tinh t r a n g tot thi kg't qua ngUdc lai, cu the khi n e n kinh te' d t i n h t r a n g td't, cac cong ty b a n che' t a i chinh lai cd td'c do dieu chinh n h a n h hdn nhdm khdng h a n che' tai chinh. Minh chiJng, khi t i n h t r a n g KTVM dUa vao term spread thi nhdm h a n chg" t a i chinh cd td'c do dieu chinh trung binh mOt n a m la 20,9% nhanh hdn 20,3% la td'c do d i l u chinh cua nhdm khong b a n che' t a i chinh (ddn bay theo gia t r i s6 sach) va 27,8% la nhanh hdn 25,3% (ddn hiy theo gia thi triidng). Ke't qua nay tUdng tir khi dda vko GDP growth va market dividend. Nghia la d tinh t r a n g kinh tg' td't hdn, ne'u cd p h a t h a n h ngudn t a i trd, cac cong ty b a n chg' tai chinh se t i n dung p h a t h a n h ngay khi cd th^, nhdng nhdm doanh nghiep khong b a n chd' tai chinh se cd n h i l u thdi gian hdn de Ida chon. Kg't qua nghien cd'u kha tuong dong vdi Korajczyk va Levy (2003). Ke't qua thdc nghiem d Bang 6 cho tha'y rang cd ton tai khoang cdch chdnh lech (chi phi dieu chinh) hay td'c do dilu chinh cua hai mfiu doanh nghiep la khac nhau va td'c do dieu chinh cung khac nhau d cac tinh t r a n g kinh tg' tot va xa'u.
Kg't l u ^ n
Nghien cdu n h i m lam rd md'i quan he giila chi phi dieu chinh, td'c do dieu chinh don bay ve muc tigu d cac tinh t r a n g KTVM. Bai vie't tim tha'y cac bang chdng thdc nghiem sau:
Thd nha't, cac tinh t r a n g KTVM khac nhau cd a n h hddng den to'c do dilu chinh ddn bay cua doanh nghiep. Vi vay, quye't dinh Ida chon ngudn tai trd, dac biet td nd vay phu thugc Congnghe f\^Stf\ H a n g I S6'118+119»TMng01+02/2016 I
cac chinh sach vi md cua chinh phu trddc dd anh hudng den mdc ky vong ma doanh nghiep dd bdo nen kinh te se tang trddng hoac doi dien vdi giai doan khd khan.
Thd hai, doanh nghiep dilu chinh don bay ve muc tieu khi nen kinh te d tinh t r a n g td't nhanh hdn, dilu nay cung phu hdp cho du doanh nghiep cd hi h a n che' tai chinh hay khdng thi toe do dilu chinh d tinh t r a n g kinh te' tot van nhanh hdn.
Thd ba, chi phi dilu chinh cd anh hddng de'n to'c dd dilu chinh. Cu the, d tinh trang kinh tg" td't thi td'c do dieu chinh van nhanh hdn khi tinh trang kinh tg' xa'u. O cap do phsin loai doanh nghigp, d tinh trang kinh te' xa'u, doanh nghiep han che' tai chinh cd td'c do dilu chinh don bay chdm hdn nhdm khong b a n che' tai chinh. Nhdng d tinh trang kinh tg' td't hdn, cac doanh nghigp h a n che' tai chinh lai cd td'c dd dilu chinh nhanh hdn.
Nhdng bang chdng thdc nghigm cua nghien cdu se cd ngu y quan trong dd'i vdi cac nha hoach dinh chinh sdch, quan ly doanh nghiep
ve n h a n dien vd qudn t r i chinh sdch tai trg.
quyg't dinh de xud't ddn b^y cho doanh nghiep;
Dd'i vdi n h a quan tri tdi chinh, viec nhfin dign yg'u tcT a n h hddng dg'n quyet dinh don b^y la cdc ky quan t r g n g vd trong hd'i canh hgi n h a p h i e n nay t h i yg'u td^ kinh tg' vi mo cdng gid vai trd nSi b a t . Dieu nay doi hoi nhd quan ly can cd gdc nhin todn dien kiii k e t hdp ye'u td' vi md vd vi md kinh tg khi hoach dinh ca'u true vd'n. Nhd quan ly chinh sdch can dda r a nhdng dinh hddng va tin hi§u rd r a n g v l chinh sdch tdi khda vd chinh sdch t i l n te cung nhd d a m bao dat dddc muc ti§u kinh tg' vi md d l r a n h d td'c do tang trddng, lj[i sud't., n h a m giup doanh nghiep dd bdo chinh xdc t r i e n vong n e n kinh te' dg cd nhdng dieu chinh kip thdi va phu hdp trong quye't dinh tai trd.
Tuy nhien, nghign cdu cung khdng tranh di/cc h a n chg' ve khung thdi gian phan tich va chira kigm sodt h e t cac yg'u td' vi md, ma chi chon ba big'n so' dai dign va chi sd dung mgt bien dai dien la b a n che' tdi chinh khi xem xdt dg'n chi phi dieu chinh. Vi vay, nghign cdu sau can tdp trung de lam rd thgm vd'n de nay"
T a i l i e u t h a m k h a o
Caballero, S.B., Teruel, P J. and Solano, P.M. (2014). Working capital management, corporate performance, and financia]
constraints Journal of Business Research, 67(3), pp. 332-338.
Castanias, R. (1983) Bankruptcy Risk and Optimal Capital Structure The Journal of Finance, 38(5), pp. 1617-1635.
Choe, H., Masulis, R.W. and Nanda. VK (1993), Common Stock Offerings Across the Business Cycle' Theory and Evidence, Journal of Empirical Fman.cial,l(l), pp. 3-31
Cook, D.O. and Tang, T. (2010). Macroeconomic conditions and capital structure adjustment speed. Journal of Corpomtt Finance, 16(1), pp, 73-87.
Drobetz, W. and Wanzenried, G. (2006). What Determines the Speed of Adjustment to the Ta rget Capital Structure? vlppM Financial Economics, 16(13), pp. 941-961.
D6 van Thing vi, Trinh Quang ThiSu (2010). Anh huSng en, cSn trtc vo'n len gia t n doanh nghiep eda c4c cong ty nito y.'t tren san ehdng khoin TP.HCM. Tap chi Phdt tnin Kmh te, trang 238.
Estrella, A and M,.hlu„, F.S. (1998) Pred.eting U S. recessions: fmane.al variables as loading indicators. The R«,k. •f Economics and Statistics, 80(1), pp. 45-61.
Fama, E.F. and French, K R (2002). Testing Trade-Off and Pecking Order Predictior of Financial Studies, 15(1), pp. 1-33
Flannery, M.J. and Rangan. K.P. (2006). Partial adjustment toward target capital structures. Journal of Financial Economic 79(3), pp 469-506
Goldstom, R.S. and Leland, H E. (2001). An Eb.t-based Model of Dynamic Cap.td Stmeture. Jaur.^ .f Business. 74(4), pp. 483-511 s About Dividends and Debt. The Review
E
Congnghe R g a i l H a H g So 118+119«Thang 01+02/2016Hackbarth, jj., Miao, J. and Morellec, E. (2006). Capital structure, credit risk and macroeconomic conditions. Journal of Financial Economics, 82(3), pp 519-550.
Hovakimian, A., Hovakimian, G. and Tehranian, H, (2004). Determinants of target capital structure: The caae of dual debt and equity issues. Journal of Financial Economics, 71, pp. 517-540.
Kane, A., Marcus, A.J. and McDonald, R.L. (1984). How Big is the Tax Advantage to Debt? Journal of Finance, 39(3), pp. 841-853.
Kor^czyk, R.A. and Levy, A. (2003). Capital Structure Choice: Macroeconomic Conditions and Financial Constraints. Journal of Financial Economics, 68, pp. 75-109.
Lg Dat Chi (2013). Cfic nhfin t6 dnh hiiSng dg'n vi^c hoach dinh cau trdc vS'n eiia cdc nhik quSn tri t i i chinh tai Vi§t Nam.
Tap chi Phdt triin o& H6i nk^P. 9(19), trang 22-28.
Pham Ti^n Minh v i Nguygn Tiffn Dung (2015). CSc nhSn t6' iah hUdng c^u triic vEfn tii mo hinh tinh d^n m8 hinh dong:
Nghign ci3u trong nganh b^t d&ng sdn Vigt Nam Tap chi Phdt triin Kinh ti, 26(6/2015), trang 58-74.
Phan Thi Bich Nguy|t (2011). Tdc dpng cua h§ thS'ng thu^ thu nhdp d^n c§[u true von cdc cong ty c6 phIn Vi^t Nam. Tap chi Phdt triin Kinh ti, trang 247.
Stightz, J.E. (1973). Taxation, Corporate Financial Policy and the Cost of Capital. Journal of Public Economics, 2, pp. 1-34.
Stock, J.H. and Wataon, M.W. (1989). New indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 4, pp. 352-394.
Titman, S. (1984). The effect of capital structure on a firm's liquidation decision. Journal of Financial Economics, 13(1), pp. 137-151.
Titman, S. and Wessels, R. (1988). The Deteminants of Capital Structure choice The Journal of Finance, 43(1), pp 1-19.
Trdn Uiing Scfn (2011). Dac di^m doanh nghigp va toe d0 dilu chinh c&u tnic von muc tigu cua cdc doanh nghiep san xufilt cong nghigp nigm yet tai Vi?t Nam. Tap chi Phdt triin Khoa hgc v& Cdng ngh&, 14(3), trang 22-39.
Tzang, S.W., Wang, K,Y. and Rahim, R.N. (2013). Macroeconomic Condition and Capital StructureAdjustment Speed - Evidence from the Indonesian Stock Market. Seventh International Conference on Innovative Mobile and Internet Services in Ubiquitous Computing, Asian University, Taiwan, pp. 784-789.
Wanzenried, G. (2002). Capital Structure Dynamics in UK and Continental Europe. Working Papers, University of California Berkeley, Haas.
ThSng tin tac gia:
(*) PGS.TS. Le Thi Lanh hien dang cong tdc tat Khoa Tai chink, TrUdng Bai hoc Kinh ti TP.HCM.
Llnh vifc nghien ciiu chinh: Tdi chinh, Ngdn h&ng.
Cdc nghiSn ciiu duac cdng bS trSn cdc tap chi trong nUdc: Tap chi Phdt triin va H6i nh&p. Tap chi Khoa hoc, Tqp chi Phdt triin Kinh ti...
Email: [email protected]
(**) ThS. Huynh Thi Cam Ha hiin dang cdng tdc tai Khoa Tdi chink, TrUdng Bqi hoc Kmh ti TP.HCM.
Llnh VUC nghien cUu: Tdi chinh doanh nghiep, Bdu tu tdi chink
Cdc nghiSn ciiu duac cdng bo trSn cdc tap chi trong nudc: Tap chi Phdt triin vd H6i nhdp. Tap chi Khoa hoc Email: [email protected].
(***) ThS. Le Thi Hong Minh ki^n dang cSng tdc tai Khoa Tdi chinh, TrUdng Bqi hoc Kinh ti TP.HCM Linh vUc nghien ciiu: Tdi chinh qu6c ti. Qudn tri rdi ro.
Cdc nghiSn ciiu dugc cdng bd trin cdc tap chi trong vd ngodi nildc: Tap cki Pkdt triin vd Hdi nh&p. Tap cki Khoa hgc.
International Journal of Economics and Finance Email: minhtcdn®ueh.edu.vn.
cdngn^ HQ^n Hdng
S6'118+119 •Thdng 01-h02/2016
