TCt CHINH SACH DEN CUOC SON'
Chinh sach tai khoa
nhcitn doi pho v6i tac dong kinh te do dai djch Covid-19 gay ra
MAI DiMH LAM'
Viet Nam dang diJng trufdc nguy ctf suy giam tang trrfofng kinh td' do tac dfing cua dai dicli Covid-19 gay ra. Bai vigt piiSn tich anh huTo^ng cua dai dich Covid-19 den tang tru'dng Itinh td'do'i vofi m6t sd'chi ti§u quan trong, cac giai phap chinh sach tai khoa cua Chinh phu nham doi pho vdi anh hrfdng do dai dich g§y ra, dSng th&i dtfa ra cac Itfu y khi trien Idiai cac giai phap tr§n.
ANH.HaaNGCUA DICH COVID-19 DEN NEN KINH TE VIET NAM
Ngay 01/04/2020, Thu W6ng Chinh phu da cong bo dich Covid-19 tren pham ca nifdc vdi tinh chat benh truyen nhiem nhom A, miJc d6 dai dich toan cau. Vdi pham VI anh hifclng toan cau, Covid-19 khong chi la mot dich benh thong thu'dng, d6'i vdi ViSt Nam, no da tac dpng de'n moi mat cua d&i song kinh te - xa hoi, dac biet la tang tru'dng va cac chi tieu kinh te quan trgng khac. Cu the:
vi tdng tritdng kinh te
So lieu cua Tong cue Tho'ng ke cho thU'y, tinh hinh kinh te'- xa hoi quy 1/2020 cua nudc la da hi anh hifdng ldn bdi dai dich Covid^l9. Cu the, GDP quy 1/2020 chl tang 3,82% so vdi ciing ky nam 2019.
Trong giai doan 2015-2020, day la nam CO GDP quy 1 tang tha'p nhS't. Cu the, nam 2016 GDP quy I tang 5,48%; nam 2017 tang 5,15%, nam 2018 tang 7,45%;
va nam 2019 tang 6,82% (Hinh). Lan gin nha't kinh te Viet Nam tang tru'dng difdi 4% trong quy I la nam 2009 - nam dau tien khi khung hoang tai chinh the gidi nd ra. Va, day chu'a phdi la so lieu duy nhat phan anh khd khan ciia nen kinh te' do anh hifdng ciia dai djch.
Tinh theo ty trgng ddng gdp vao cd cau kinh te', khu v\Sc dich vu chiem ty trong 43,71%; ke'tiep la cong nghiep va xSy di/ng chi6'm 35,52%; ndng, lam, thuy san chie'm 10,11%; cdn lai la thue va trd cap. Quy 1/2020 chuang kie'n sir di xuo'ng cua ca 3 khu vifc chinh. Trong do, nong, lam nghiep va thuy san gan nhiJ khdng
ddng gdp gi vao bile tranh chung, khi chi dat 0,08%
trong quy 1/2020 do anh hirdng cua bien doi khi hau, dai dich Covid-19 va dich ta ldn chau Phi; rieng ndng nghiep giam 1,17% so vdi ciing ky.
Trong qua khiJ, neu nhif nam 2016, khi khu vu'c ndng, lam nghi$p va thiiy san suy ye'u, nen kinh te'diTcfc
"dd" lai bang cdng nghiep va dich vu. The'nhifng, quy 1/2020, ca 2 khu vitc nay cdng giam sut, xuo'ng miJc tha'p nha't nhieu nam, vdi mot ly do chung "tac ddng cua Covid-19". Khu vu'c cdng nghiep va xSy difng tang tha'p nha't ba nam, trong khi dich vu tang thap nha't trong hdn mdt thap nien qua.
Ve cdn can thU&ng mgi
Vdi hoat dgng xuS't - nhSp khau, theo so' lieu cua Tong cue Hai quan, quy 1/2020, td'ng kim ngach hang hda dat hdn 115 ty USD, giam 0,7% so vdi ciing ky nam 201.9. Trong dd, xuS't kh^'u chi tang 0,5% cdn nhap
HINH: TAMG TRCfdNG QQY i CUA CAC MAM GIAI DOAN 2009-2020 Dem Vl linh: '
20K 2010 2011 2012
Ngu6n-Tong w- I lining !•{•*
'TS., Hoc vien Hanh chinh Quoc gia
TCr CHINH SACH DEN CGOC SONG
khau giam 1,9%. Ket qua nay da cham dut chudi tang Hen tue tijf nam 2010 den 2019.
Theo^Tong cue Thdng ke, tdng kim ngach xua't - nhap khau hang hda ca nu'dc trong quy 1/2020 u'dc dat 115,34 ty USD, giam 0,69% so vdi ciing ky nam tru'dc.
Xuat kha'u u'dc dat hOn 59 ty USD, tang 0.5% va nhap khau dat 56.26 Ey USD, giam 1,9%. Can can thu'dng mai hang hda cua Viet Nam den het thang 03/2020 dat thang dif 2,8 ty USD.
Tong von dau tUtodn xd hgi
Tong vd'n dau tif vao nen kinh te cung chiing kien da giam manh. Vd'n dau tif toan xa hdi thifc hien trong quy 1/2020 tang 2,2% so vdi cung ky nam tnfdc, mite tang thap nha't 10 nam, trong dd vd'n dau Uf trifc tiep nu'dc ngoai giam 5,4%. Dac biet, vd'n dau tif toan xa hdi thifc hien quy 1/2020 dat miJc tang tha'p nha't trong giai doan 2016-2020, do anh hu'dng tieu cifc cua dich Covid-19.
Ve chi so gid tieu dimg vd mdc bdn le hdng hoa, dich vu
Hoat ddng ban le hang hda, dich vu trong 3 thang dau nam 2020 diln ra kem sdi dgng. Anh hu'dng ciia dai dich Covid-19 va cac bien phap each ly xa hgi da khien ngu'di tieu dimg han che mua sam ndi edng cdng, di du lich va an ud'ng ngoai gia dinh.
Theo Tdng cue Thd'ng ke, tdng miJc ban le hang hda va doanh thu dieh vu tieu diing quy 1/2020 dat hdn 1,2 trieu ty ddng, chi tang 4,7% so vdi ciing ky nam 2019 va 1& miic tang thap nha't hdn 10 nam. Trong dd, rigng thang 03/2020, chi tieu nay giam 0,87c so vdi ciing ky nam 2019-lan dau tien ghi nhan miJc tang am trong giai doan 2016-2020.
Tuy tdng miJc ban le giam, nhutig ehi so' CPl thang 03/2020 va chi sd' CPI binh quan quy 1/2020 deu dang d mure cao nha't trong giai doan 2016-2020. CPI thang 03/2020 tang 4,87% so vdi cung ky nam 2019 va CPI binh quan quy 1/2020 tang 5,56% so vdi ciing ky nam 2019.
Ve nhUng kho khdn ciia doanh nghiip Cling theo sd'lieu cua Tong cue Thd'ng ke, chi rieng trong quy 1/2020, ed tdi 34.889 doanh nghiep rut Uii khdi thi trifdng do tam ngifng kinh doanh hoac giai the.
Trong sd' nay, cd tdi 18.596 doanh nghiep dang ky tam ngifng kinh doanh cd thdi han, tifdng difdng miJe tang tdi 26% so vdi eung ky 2019.
Ngay 03/04/2020, Tnfdng Dai hgc Kinh te Qudc dan da cdng bd'bao cao "Danh gia tac ddng ciia dich Covid-19 den nen kmh te va cac khuyen nghi chinh saeh". Bao cao eho tha'y, den thdi diem hien tai, tae ddng cua dai dich Covid-19 den khu vi/c doanh nghiep da bat dau hoc Id mdt each rd rang d ta't ca eac nganh chiu anh hifdng ca trife tiep va gian tiep. Trong do, cd de'n 93,9% cac doanh nghiep dieu tra danh gia dai dich Covid-19 cd tac dgng tieu cifc de'n boat ddng san xua't.
kinh doanh ciia hg. Cu the. de dd'i phd vdi nhiJno khd khan do tac ddng cua dai dich, 65,5% doanh nghiep thifc hien cat giam chi phi boat dgng thifdng xuyen;
35.3% doanh nghiep phai cat giam lao ddng; 34%
phai cat giam lu'gng nhan edng lao ddng; 34.5% doanh
nghiep da phai cho lao dgng "-'" S khdne ii^dng: cd 44.7% doanh ngh^?P cii giam quy md sdn xuSt kinh doanh^
34,7% cae doanh "gh^ep^'^J.'^J^"'^^
difiis hoat ddng san xuat, kinh doanh dd chd qua thdi ky khd k h ^ ^ r ^ f / ' h doanh nghiep thifc hien chuyen do hmh thu'c sdn xua't, kinh doanh cho phu hgp v6i bd'i canh mdi. „^^ _
Thd'ns ke trong Ihang 02/2020 cung eho thay" sd nsu^di nop hd sd hifdng bao hidm tha't nghiep la tren 47.000 ngifdi, tang 60% so vdi thang 1/2020 ya tang 70% so vdi ciing ky nam tnfdc (gan 28.000 ngu'di) {Tru'dng Dai hgc Kinh te Qudc dan, 2020).
N H Q N G CHINH SAQH TAI KHOA DL/aC THL/C HIEN NHAiVI DOI PHO VdlTAC DONG CUA DjCH COVID-19 Vdi cac sd lieu thd'ng ke tren day, cd the tha'y dai dich Covid-19 gay ra da anh hifdng ddn hau het cac chi tieu kinh le ciia Viet Nam va cd the keo dai. Vdi muc tieu kep viia phdng chd'ng dich higu qua, vCfa dam bdo dn dinh, piiat trien kinh te - xa hdi, Chinh phu da ban hanh Chi thi 11/CT-TTg, ngay 04/03/2020 ve cac nhiem vu, gidi phap ca'p bach thao gd khd khan cho san xua't kinh doanh, dam bao an sinh xa hdi, iTng phd vdi dai dich Covid-19. NhiJng nhiem vu, giai phap nay da cd can nhac nhiJng kich ban danh gia tac ddng cua dai dich Covid-19 de'n tang tru'dng kinh te Viet Nam nam 2020 - do cac cd quan, nhu: Bd Ke hoach va Dau tu'. Ban Kinh te'Trungu'dng,Ngan hang Co phin Dau tif va Phat trien... thu'c hien.
Tru'dc tac dong cua tmh hinh dich Coyid-I9, Bd Tai chinh da chu ddng de xuat cac giai phap vd chinh sach tai khoa de thao gd khd khan cho san xua't, kmh doanh, cu the la:
Ve chinh sdch time
B6 Tai chinh da trinh Chinh phu ban hanh Nghi dinh sd41/2020ND-CP, ngay 08/04/2020 vd viec "•"p thue va tien thue dS't cho ddi tifuuL, cUiu anh hifdng bdi dich Covid-19. Tlico do, se thu'c hien gia han thdi han i-op ihuV 5 thang dd'i vdi thue gia tri gia iJng va thue thu nhap doanh nghiep ciia ,.de doanh nghiep, to chiJc san xua't, '.inli doanh- thue gia tn gia tang va thue Om nhSp cd nhan eiia cac hd kinh doanh. . tienthu^
dat ^i' I cac doanh nghiep • ^y-^^^^ .
nhan. Dii kien, se cd khoang 98% doanh nghiep thudc dien difdc gian thue va tidn thu6 da't vdi tdng miic khoang 180 nghin ty ddng.
Bd Tai chinh cung da thifc hien mien thue nhap khau dd'i vdi cae mat hang khau trang y te', niTdc rufa tay sat triing, nifdc sat triing, nguyen lieu san xua't khau trang y te, vat tif va thiet bi y te khac; Ddng thdi, didu chinh bieu thue xua't khau va bieu thue' nhap khau ifu dai dd thao gd khd khan cho cac doanh nghiep boat dgng trong ITnh viTc da giay, d6t may, che bien ndng, Ifim, san, thiiy san, ho trd phat tridn cd khi, cdng nghiep phu trd, cdng nghiep 6 td. DiT kien viec dilu chinh nay se giiip giam nghia vu ndp ngSn sach nha nifde (NSNN) cua cac doanh nghigp nam 2020 tren 6.000 ty ddng.
Ben canh dd, Bd Tai ehinh eung de xuat Chinh phu trinh Qud'c hdi tai ky hgp thang 05/2020 quyet dinh thiic hien chinh sach ifu dai thud thu nhap doanh nghiep de hd trd doanh nghiep nhd va sieu nhd ngay tii ngay 01/07/2020 (theo Id trmh ban dau, thi dii kid'n ap dung tii 01/01/2021). Theo do, dii kidn ap dung thue sua't 15%-17% tiiy thudc vao quy md doanh thu va sd' lUdng lao dgng ciia doanh nghidp; ddng thdi, cho phep midn thue'thu nhap doanh nghiep trong 2 nam hen tue ke tif khi cd thu nhap chiu thue' dd'i vdi doanh nghiep nhd, doanh nghiep sieu nhd du'dc thanh lap mdi tii hg Idnh doanh. Tru'dng hdp thu'c hien tii thang 07/2020, thi dif kien se cd khoang 700 nghin doanh nghiep (chiem khoang 93% tdng sd'doanh nghiep trong ea nifdc) difdc hifdng ldi, qua do giam nghia vu ndp NSNN nam 2020 khodng 7,8 nghin. ty ddng (ca nam la 15,6 nghin ty ddng).
Bd Tai chinh da de xuat nang mile giam trii gia canh ciia thue' thu nhap ea nhan; trong do dii kien dieu chinh tang miic giam trii cho ban than ngu'di nop thue' tii 09 trieu ddng/than_g len miic 11 trieu ddng/thang, cho mdi ngu'di phu thudc tii 3,6 trieu ddng/thang len miic 4,4 trieu ddng/thang. Theo dd, tdng so' thu nhap ngifdi lao ddng du'dc giii lai de ehi ti6u them nhd viec dieu chi'nh nay trong nam 2020 khoang 10,3 nghin ty dong.
Ngoai ra, thifc hien chi dao ciia Thu tu'dng Chinh phii, Bg Tai chinh dang phd'i hdp vdi eac bd, ed quan lien quan ra soat dd thiic hien cat giam nhieu loai phi, le
phi cho doanh nghiep va ngu'di dan. Tong sd phi, le phi cat giam trong thdi gian cdn Iai cua nam 2020 khoang 500 ty ddng.
vi chinh sdch chi tieu cong
Ben canh viec dam bao ngudn cho chi dau lu' phat trien, cac cft'p NSNN cdn phai danh ngudn khoang 52,6 nghin ty ddng bd sung ngudn Iiic de thifc hien che'dd, ehinh sach \Xu tien cho eac Iiic Iifdng tham gia ngan chan, dap dich Covid-19 (phu ca'p cho life lifdng phdng chd'ng dich, tien an va kham chffa benh cho ngu'di bi each ly...), mua sam trang thie't bi, vat tif y te' phong chd'ng dich va hd trd triic tie'p bang lien lif NSNN cho ngifdi dan bi anh hu'dng do dich Covid-19, ddm bao an sinh va an loan xa hdi.
Ngoai ra, NSNN cflng da chu ddng bd' tri ngudn dd tang cifdng hang dif trii qud'c gia (ehii yeu la Iifdng thifc), hd trd kip thdi ngu'di dan d nhu'ng khu vifc khd khan do thien tai, dieh benh, dam bao khdng ai bi ddi.
Ben canh dd, cac doanh nghiep kinh doanh bao hiem du'dc yeu cau dam bao quyen Idi cua ngifdi bdo hiem bi tac ddng bdi dich benh.
Dac bidt, ngay 09/04/2020, Chinh phii da ban hanh Nghi quyet 42/NQ-CP ve cac bien phap hd trd ngifdi dan gap khd khan do dai dich Covid-19. Theo do, mdt gdi hd trd an sinh xa hdi ling phd vdi tae dgng cua dich Covid-19 tri gia khoang 62.000 ty ddng (cd ngudn tnic tie'p va gian tiep) dd hd trg khoang 20 trieu dd'i tu'dng. DSy la brfdc di dung dan va nhanh chdng ciia Chinh phii. Tuy nhien, didu nay se tao ra siic ep nd cdng ldn.
MOT SO LL/U Y KHI THl/C HIEN CAC GIAI PHAP CHINH SACH T A I KHOA
Cd the tha'y, trong bd'i canh benh dieh hien nay, cac chinh sach tai khda difdc tung ra nham hd trd ngu'di dan, ngu'di lao ddng va doanh nghiep la can thie't. Tuy nhien, cac gdi hd trd can ddm bao tap trung, de vifa hd trd viia tao lac dgng Ian tda, tr^nh triing l^p nhau. Bd'i canh lam phdt cao va tang tru'dng tha'p cDng ddi hoi lUu Iifdng hd trd phai d lieu lu'gng hdp Iy, Bdi, hd trd qua miie cd the lam tang ap Iiic lam phat, cdn hd trd qua it, thi klidng du tac ddng thiic day hoat ddng san xua't,_
kinh doanh. Dac biet, can Iifu y, bd'i canh kinh te the gidi va khu viie cd the edn nhiing didn bidn phii'c tap - dich benh clii la mdt tac nhan. Do dd, cac giai phap chinh sach ling phd, nha't la cae chinh saeh tai khda van can dam bao sif than trgng can thiet, nham giiJ difdc dif dia de van dung trong cac kich ban kinh te trong tifdng lai. Vi vay, cac giai phap chinh sach tai khda cdn kfu y cac va'n dd sau:
ThU nhat, ve cdn doi thu - chi NSNN
Nhifng khd khan do tac ddng cua dai dich Covid-19 da va dang lae dgng Idn de'n boat ddng can ddi thu - chi NSNN. Do tde ddng eiia dai dich Covid-19, dif bao ngudn thu NSNN nam 2020 se giam do: (i) Tang tru'dng kinh te'dat thap; (ii) Gia dau thd giam sau; va (iii) Dieu chinh chinh sach Ihu NSNN de thao gd khd khan cho
TCr CHlNH SACH DEN CUOC SONG
doanh nghiep, hd kinh doanh iing phd vdi dieh benh.
Ngoai ra, tien do sap xdp, cd phan hda doanh nghiep hien rat cham ciang la mdt rui ro ldn dd'i vdi ngudn thu tif cd phan hda va thoai vd'n doanh nghiep nha nifdc.
Theo quy dinh ciia Luat Ngan sach nha nu'dc, tru'dng hdp dii kie'n sd thu khdng dat dii toan, thi phai xem xet, dieu chinh giam tifdng ling mdt sd khoan chi de dam bao can ddi NSNN. Trong bd'i canh hien nay, Chinh phu, ma cu the la Bd Tai chinh can tinh toan, de xua't cac phifdng an dieu chinh, sdm Ulnh Qud'c hdi xem xet va thdng qua. Ben eanh dd, Bd Tai chinh can kien nghi Chinh phu, Thii tifdng Chinh phii cac giai phap cSn dd'i ngudn life dam bao chi NSNN.
Thd hai, doi vdi chinh sdch thue
Nhiing chinh sach thue'hd trg viia difOc ban hanh viia qua la ra't can thie't trong bd'i canb dai dich Covid-19.
Didu quan trong hien nay la can nhanh ehdng trien khai cac chinb saeh nay de giiip cae doanh nghiep sdm vifdt qua khd khan.
Tong cue Thue va eac chi cue thue can thiie hien td't cdng tac tuyen truyen nham giiip ngifdi nop thud nam bat cac chinh sach thao gd khd khan cua Nha nu'dc, cac doanh nghiep, bd, ca nhan yen tam kinh doanh; tap trung hifdng dan doanh nghiep, td chiic, ca nhan bi thidt hai bdi dich benh lap hd sd, giii cd quan thue quan ly tnic dep de nghi mien tien cham ndp, gia han nop thue.
Thiiba, doi vdi chi tieu cong
Boi vdi chi thudng xuyin: Can tiet kidm chi thu'dng xuyen mdt each triet de tai ta't ca cac cd quan nha nudc, day la vigc lam het siic can thie't, dac biet trong bdi eanh ngan sach trung tfdng va dia phUdng dang ehiu nhieu ap life, tif phdng chd'ng dieh de'n hd trd doanh nghigp, ngu'di lao ddng, dam bao dn dmh kinh te... Do dd, cat giam ehi thifdng xuyen se giiip giam ap life cho NSNN. Theo do, tie't giam td'i da cac khoan ciii hop hanh, chi di cdng tac, td chii'c hdi nghi, tap hua'n, bdi du'dng nghiep vu... Cac khoan chi nao khdng thiic sif cin tbid't cin dUdc cat giam va dUdc chuydn sang phuc vu cdng tac phdng chd'ng dich Covid-19.
Dd'i vdi ddu tu cdng: Trong bo'i canh dif dia eiia chinh sach tai khda, tien te ngay cang han hep, viec day nhanh giai ngan dau tif cdng la giai phap ifu tien va cd tinh kha thi nha't de hd trd nen kinh te'. So'vd'n nay
dtfdc gidi ngan se ddng gdp triic ^^P .^
tang tru'dng nam nay, lan tda tdi nhieu nganh, linh vu'c khac, ddng tlidi nSng cao cha't lu-dng ha tang, tao dien kien thuan ldi cho nen kinh te biit pha trong nhiing nam sau. _ ^
De tap trung giai ngan vd'n dau Uf cdng cho hieu qua can thifc hien cac giai phap, nhif: cai each hanh chinh, khdng de thii tue hanh chinh la "didm nghen"
trong dau tii; ra soat lai nhu'ng rao can hien nay trong giai ngSn vd'n dau tu* cong de de xua't bign phap thao gd kip thdi;
tang eu'dng ky cifdng, ky luat trong chap hanh phap luat ve quan iy dau tu'; yeu cau cac chu dii an, nha thau tap trung eac ngudn life, trang thidt hi de trien khai dii an ngay sau khi hoan thanh cdng tac dau thau, Ilia chpn nha thau va thiic hidn gidi ngan vd'n theo che'dd quy dinh.
De nghi Chinh phu quye't liet chi dao cat giam, dieu chinh vd'n tii dii an cd tien do giai ngan cham sang dii a.n cd tie'n do td't hdn; ket thiic nam 2020, tnfdng hdp vdn ke' hoach van chu'a gidi ngan het, trinh Qud'c hgi cho phep huy bd de giam bdi chi NSNN.
Doi vdi gdi hd trg an sinh xd hgi lit NSNN: Vigc ban hanh gdi hd trd an sinh xa hdi tri gia 62.000 ty ddng cho khoang 20 trieu ngu'di, tap trung vao hd trd vdi ngifdi lao ddng giam sau thu nhap, ma't viec iam, khdng dam bdo mii'c sdng td'i thieu, de chuan hi dieu kien eho phat trien kinh te, kich hoat nen kinh te khi ket thiic dai dieh la ein thie't. Day la sii nd liic ra't tdn ciia Nha nu'dc trong bd'i cdnh NSNN hg't siie ban hep. Chinh vi vay, de gdi hd trg phat huy du'dc hieu qua, thi viec dam bao diing dd'i tu'dng, cdng khai, minh bach, khdng de Idi dung, true Idi chinli saeh... la he't stfc quan trgng.Q
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1. Chinh phu (2020). Nghi quye't sd 42/NQ-CP, ngdy 09/04/2020 hS tra do dgi dieh Covid-19 gay ra
2. Tliii tu'dng Chinh phu (2020). Clil ihi so II/CT-TT^
ngudi dan gap kho khdn phdp cdp bdch thdo gd khd khdn cho sdn xudt, kinh doanh,'Z!l&oTs]T,fhd^^^^^"'""" '"• ^'^'
Covid-19 ' ' ifng phd vdi dich
tdi khoa nhdm thdo gd ihd khdn cho 3. Bd Tai chinh (2020). Bdo cdo cdc gidi plidp chinh sdch ...,
sdn .xua't. kinh doanh; ihuc day gidi ngdn von ddu tu cdnp rr,7ril- t/„. ^- ' v • J , ngay 09/04/2020 ^ '"^^^ ' " ' ^^"^ """ ^"' '^"''^ Covid-19,
4. Tdng cue Thd'ng ke (2020). Bdo cdo tinh hmh kinh t^- xd hoi aux I/W20 5. Trudng Dai hoc Kinh te Qude dan (2020). Bdo cri«f)rf,,/; I f ' , j - ' ^ , ^ X , , ..' , . ,, -• ,- ;- , . , , '• "a.u tao uanh i>ui lac dong cua dich • .wV /n ^ nen kmh te va cac kliuyen nghi cluiih sach, cong bd ngay 03/04/''0"'n
