KINH TE VI MO
Phat trien khung phuong phap luqn xep hqng cac khu cong nghiep cua Viet Nam*
NGUYEN DlTc THANH PHAM VAN DAI VV MINH LONG
fai vie't tong hap cac nghien cdu quoc teve cac nhan to'chi phoi quyS't dinh Ida chgn ' khu cong nghiep cua cac doanh nghiep san xui't cQng nhu nang Itic canh tranh cua cac khu cong nghiep, tren cd sd do, bai viet de xuat khung phifdng phap luan cd ban phtic vuphan
tich va xdp hang khu cong nghiep d Viet Nam. Viec xep hang diidc diia tren hai mo hinh dinh liidng theo yeu to dinh gia hSp din (hedonic pricing model) va ph Udng phap phan tich da tieu chf (multi-criteria analysis). Khung ly thuyet nay se la nen tang de phat trien bing hoi phu hop phuc vji viSc xep hang cac kh u cong nghiep tai Viet Nam mgt each kha thi.
Tvt. k h o a : khu cong nghiep Viet Nam, xep hang khu cong nghiep, dinh gia hap din, phan tich da tieu chi, kinh tevUng, kinh tephat trien.
S
u: p h a t t r i l n cua cac k h u cong nghiep (KCN) h Viet N a m g i n h ^ n v6i qua t r i n h mS cvfa va doi m6i k i n h t e cua d a t niidc. So lifdng KCN cua Viet N a m da t a n g len n h a n h chong, x u a t hien ci h a u h e t cac t m h , t h a n h t r o n g ca nifdc. Thiic t e cho t h a y sii can t h i e t p h a i n a n g cao chat lufdng hoach dinh p h a t t r i e n KCN nhSm st( d u n g hifiu qua nguon liic d^'t dai ciing nhU t a n g cUdng sil dong gop cua cac KCN vao p h a t trien kinh te, dong thdi, dinh vi c h a t liiOng cac KCN. Viet N a m da co n h i l u nghien cijfu ve chinh sach c6ng nghiep va cac KCN h Viet Nam, nhifng h a u nhif chUa co nghiSn cflu dinh lifdng d a n h gia cac yeu to a n h hifcing den k h a n a n g c a n h t r a n h h a y k h a n a n g t h u h u t d i u tif cua cac KCN.1. T o n g q u a n n g h i e n cufu v e x e p h a n g k h u c o n g n g h i e p
1.1. Cdc mo hinh dinh tinh ve nhan to chi phoi quyei dinh lUa chgn KCN cua cdc doanh nghiep sdn xuat Viec lUa chon dia diem d a t n h a m a y san xua't la quyet dinh c6 t i n h c h a t chien lUdc vdi mot doanh nghiep san xua't. Quye't dinh d a t n h a may h a y mS rong deu difdc can
n h l c ky vi doi hoi cam k e t ldn ve ngu6n liJc trong dai h a n (Epping, 1982). Ngoai ra, mot dia d i l m t h u i n ldi se dong gop quan trgng vao ldi t h e canh t r a n h va t h a n h cong cua doanh nghiep.
Weber (1929) difa r a mot ly thuye't n i n t a n g trong liia chon dia diem dat n h a may khi d l xua't ba ye'u to q u a n trong bao gom:
chi phi v a n tai, chi phi lao dong va cac liic lifdng tich t u kinh te (agglomeration forces).
Hotelling (1929) p h ^ n tich sii canh t r a n h giiJa cac cong ty va nd liic ket no'i trong vi$c lila chon dia diem d a t n h a may vdi sil canh t r a n h n a y va cho rang, mot doanh nghi§p san xua't se c6 ldi t h e ne'u dat n h a may d gdn t r u n g t a m cua t h i t n i d n g . Ly thuye't cua Hotelling n h a n h chong difdc pho b i l n va bo s u n g t h e m cac k h i a canh khac bdi nhieu nghien ciiu sau nay.
Losch (1939) nghien ciiu vi^c lila chon dia d i l m trong mpt n e n k i n h te t h i trifdng ho^n Nguyin Diic Thanh, PGS. TS.; Pham Van Dai, TS.;
Vu Minh Long, ThS., Vifen Nghifin cdu kinh t6 va chi'nh s^ch (VEPR).
* Nghiftn Clhl duac tai tra b6i Quy Ph3t tri^n khoa hoc va c6ng ngha qu6'c gia (NAFOSTED) trong d^ tai ma stf 502.99-2016.13
NghiSn cOu Kinh tS's6 8(495) • Thing 8/2019
Phdt trien khung phuang phap ,
hao va de xua't liia chon dia d i l m bang p h a n tich difcJng ldi ich - chi phi. M6 hinh ldi ich - chi phi ciing difdc p h a t trien bcti nhieu nghien ciiu sau nay nhif Hoover (1948), trong do ong cho rang, each tinh cifdc van tai lam tac dong cua chi phi v a n tai giam theo dKdng phi tuyen. Greenhut (1956) phat trien tiep hifdng nghien ciiu cua Hoover va xay dilng mo hinh ket hdp giiia tap quan thiic t i l n va cac ly thuyet lila chon vi tri.
Bass, McGregor va Walters (1977) sii dung mot khao sat bao gom 118 n h a may cua cac doanh nghiep Hoa Ky dat tai cac quoc gia My Latinh, Chau Au va Chau A va ket luan cac yeu to' quan trpng nha't anh hifdng den viec dau tif va chpn dia diem dat nha may la: k h a nang tie'p can, sii s^n co cua cac dich vu cd ban, moi trUdng, chi phi thue da't, tinh trang cong nghiep hoa, sU s i n CO cua nguon lao dpng, cac Ku dai va miic thue ciia ndi tiep nhan, d a n h tieng ciia viing trong viec tie'p n h a n dau tif, the che chinh tri va chinh sach.
Rummel va Heenan (1978) xem xet qua trinh danh gia cua cac tap doan da quo'c gia ve rui ro chinh tri va de xua't cac ye'u to quan trong trong viec liia chpn dia diem dat nha may san xua't bao gom: sil on dinh trong nifdc, mau t h u i n vdi nifdc ngoai, moi tnfdng chinh tri va moi trUdng kinh te. Epping (1982) phan loai cac ye'u to' quye't dinh de'n lUa chpn dia diem san xua't da dUdc chi ra trong cac nghien ciiu tnfdc do t h a n h ba nhom ye'u to': sU san co cua hoat dpng van tai de van chuyen nguyen lieu va t h a n h pham, sii s i n cd cua lao dpng va cac mo'i quan tam ca nhan.
Tong (1979) khao sat 242 doanh nghiep sd hiiu nUdc ngoai tai Hoa Ky va tim r a cac yeu to quan trpng a n h huSng de'n viec lua chon dia diem dat n h a may bao gom: dich vu van tai, thai dp cua ngUdi lao dong, k h a nang md rdng nha xUdng trong tUdng lai, khoang each tdi cac thi trudng nguyen lieu, sii san CO cua dia diem. NgUdc lai, cac yeu to kem quan trpng nhU: chi phi va k h a nang tiep can nguon vo'n, khoang each gan vdi
nudc n h a hay khoang each vdi nUdc thii ba hien CO cd sd hoat dpng, khoang each vdi thi tnidng xuat khau. Chernotsky (1983) khao sat 21 doanh nghiep cua Cong hoa Lien bang Diic (Tay Diic) va Nhat Ban, da tim r a ket qua kha ngac nhien la cac yeu to ve lao dong, uu dai tai chinh hay kha nang tiep can tdi cac thj trUdng nguyen lieu, b a n t h a n h pham khong dUdc xem trpng, ngUdc lai, cac yeu to nhU sU hap d i n cua dia diem va kha nang tiep can thi trUdng tieu t h u lai la quan trpng nhat-
Nghien ciiu cua Hoffman va Schniederjans (1994) de xua't mo hinh hai bUdc, trong dd ket hop cac khai niem cua quan ly chien lUdc, lap trinh hda muc tieu, cong nghe may tinh de cung ca'p cho cac nha quan ly phuong phap hieu qua de danh gia cac dia diem dat nha may san xua't. Md hinh cua Hoffman va Schniederjans co Uu th§ nhd kha nang xem xet dong thdi cac yeu to' cau t h a n h de dua r a quyet dinh to'i Uu. Dieu nay CO y nghTa quan trpng khi cac doanh nghiep phai can nhac nhieu yl^u to' thupc v l moi trudng chinh tri, kinh te, l u a t phap, xa hpi va van hda, cung nhU xu hUdng thay doi ciia cac yeu to' nay trong tUdng lai. Su khac biet ve dia ly, van hoa, t a p quan k m h doanh cd the khien k h a n a n g giao tie'p giQa n h a may va tru sd chi'nh trd n e n khd k h a n va t h i l u hieu qua- Trong mo h i n h nay, budc thU nha't se tap t r u n g vao cac ye'u to' ve cong nghe, moi trUdng chinh tri, kinh te, xa hpi va budc thii hai di sau vao cac yeu to ve khach h a n g tiem nang, n h a cung ciing, doi thii canh t r a n h .
J u n g t h i r a p a n i c h va Benjamin (1995) tien h a n h khao s a t cac nghien ciiu trUdc do va p h a t hien r a trong giai doan dau chi cd so' it cac yeu to' thilc sil dUdc cac doanh nghiep quan tam, bao gom: t h i tnidng, van tai, lao dpng, dia diem, k h a n a n g cung iing nguyen lieu, tien ich, cac v a n de chinh sach, moi trUdng dia phUdng.
Kupke va Pearce (1998) k h a o s a t chu sd hQu hoac q u a n ly ciia 87 doanh nghiep nhd
NghiSn cilu Kinh t4s68(495) - TTiing 6/2019
Phat trien khung phuong phdp.
va viia t a i Australia. Ket q u a cho tha'y vi t r i gan t r u n g tam va cd k h a n a n g tiep can trilc t i i p den eac tuyen dudng c h i n h la h a i yeu to dUdc can nhac dau tien. MacCarthy va Atthirawong (2003) cung cap mpt nghien cUu toan dien ve cac yeu to' a n h hudng den quyet dinh Ilia chpn dia diem dat n h a may cua doanh nghiep bang each sii d u n g phuong phap phan tich dinh tinh Delphi. MacCarthy va Atthirawong (2003) p h a n loai cac ye'u to' trong 13 nhdm chinh: chi phi, dac diem lao dpng, cd sd ha tang, khoang each den n h a cung ca'p, tiep can thi trUdng, k h a c h hang, khoang each den cac cd sd ciia cong ty me, khoang each den do'i t h u canh t r a n h , chat lUdng cupc song, khuon kho p h a p ly, cac yeu td'kinh te, chinh phii va ye'u to'chinh tri, cac y l u to van hda xa hpi, dac diem cua mpt dia diem cu the. Cac k i t qua cua nghien ciiu nay cho tha'y nhdm 5 ye'u to' chinh co the a n h hudng manh me quyet dinh lUa chpn cua mpt doanh nghiep la: chi phi, cd set h a tang, lao dpng, cha't lUdng chinh q u y i n va mdi trUdng chinh tri. Ve m a t kinh te, co 10 yeu to' cu the bao gom: chat lUdng lao dpng, sii xua't hien cua cac phUdng thtic v a n tai, cha't lUdng va dp tin cay cac phUdng thQc v a n tai, sU san co cua lUc lUdng lao dpng, cha't lUdng va sil s a n cd cua cac tien ich, t i l n lUdng, ddng liic lam viec cua cong nhan, he tho'ng thong tin lien lac, thong tin v l t i n h on dinh cua chinh phu, cac luat phap lien quan.
Mo hinh cua MacCarthy va Atthirawong (2003) bao gom ca cac yeu to' dinh tinh va dinh lupng v l khia canh hoat dpng, chien lUdc, kinh t l , chinh tri, xa hpi va v a n hda. Hp xac dinh muc dich cua cac doanh nghiep d a u t u nU6c ngoai la n h a m t i i p can nguon lao dpng dia phudng, t i i p can thi trUdng dia phUdng, hudng cac Uu dai v l t h u l va t r a n h ap lilc canh t r a n h gay gat tai thi trUdng trong nUdc. MacCarthy va Atthirawong (2003) k h a n g dinh rang, tam quan t r p n g ciia cac yeu to' t h a y doi tiiy theo tinh chat, loai h i n h k i n h doanh va cd t h i phu thupc vao k h u vile dia ly.
Badri (2007) p h a t trien mot cong cu de xac dinh cac yeu to q u a n trong trong lUa chpn dia diem san xua't. Badri (2007) liia chpn 14 nhom yeu to' dUa t r e n ky t h u a t kiem tra thUc nghiem nghiem ngat, nen tang cac nghien cUu trudc va nguyen tac tam ly. Qua khao sat cac cong trinh nghien cQu, Badri (2007) liet ke 205 yeu to' co the tac dpng den quyet dinh cua doanh nghiep. Tren cd sd so sanh sil tUdng dong va loai bd cac yeu to' giong nhau, Badri (2007) cho rling, cac yeu td'cd the phan t h a n h 14 loai rieng biet bao gom; van tai, lao dpng, nguyen lieu, thi trUdng, dia diem KCN, tien ich, thai dp cua chinh phu, cd cau thue, khi hau, va yeu to' cdng ddng. Nghien cQu cua Badri (2007) cung xem xet den cac yeu to dUdc p h a t hien nhU: vi tri gan cac trUdng dai hpc, cao dang, trUdng hpc (Audretsch va Stephen, 1996), lien ket dpc giQa cac doanh nghiep trong k h u vUc (Venables, 1996;
Arauzo Carod, 2005), xu hudng dan so (Braid, 1996; Mazzarol va Choo, 2003), thi p h a n va thi p h a n mong mud'n (Drezner va Drezner, 1996), vi t r i ciia doi thu canh t r a n h (Serra va ReVelle, 1994; Cieslik, 2005;
Siebert, 2006), quy dinh ve cha't thai 5 nhiem (Groothuis va Miller, 1994).
2.2. Cdc mo hinh dinh titdng ve nhdn to chi phoi ndng ldc canh tranh cua cdc KCN
Cho tdi nay, da cd mot so' nghien cQu dUdc thuc hien d nUdc ngoai n h a m danh gia cac yeu to' a n h hifdng de'n tinh ha'p dan ciia cac KCN. Cac nghien ciiu nay phan tich anh hudng ciia cac yeu to' dia diem, h a tang va tien ich cua KCN, cha't lUdng va cac dich vu ciia KCN, n h a n lilc, k h a n a n g t i i p can nguon cung Qng nguyen lieu va thi trUdng tieu thu, mdi trudng chinh sach va p h a p ly tdi gia t i l n thue da't hay sil s i n long tra t i l n cua doanh nghigp.
Md hinh dinh gia theo yeu to' ha'p d i n (hedonic pricing model) do Rosen (1974) xay dilng t h u d n g dUdc si£ dung de udc tinh anh hudng cua cac dac t i n h cua cac KCN. Md hinh y l u to'ha'p d i n gia thiet rang, ldi xch cd
Ngh'i6n cAi Kinh tesiS 8(495) • TTiing B/2019
Phdt trl^n khung phuang phdp ...
dUdc tQ mpt h a n g hda p h u thupc vao cac dac tinh cua hang hoa. N h u the, gia ca hang hda cung phu thupc vao cac dac tinh nay va hdn nQa anh hudng tdi gia ca cd t h i p h a n chia theo cac thudc tinh cua h a n g hoa. Md hinh yeu to' ha'p d i n dUdc sxt dung nhieu trong phan tich tri tnidng n h a da't, danh gia anh hudng cua cac yeu td' ngoai lai n h u tieng on tdi gia nha. Tuy nhien, cung cd ra't nhieu nghien cQu sil dung md hinh cac yeu to' hap d i n de phan tich cac yeu to' a n h hudng d i n v i | c lila chpn vi tri dau tQ. Ambrose (1990), Kowalski va Paraskevopoulos (1990, 1991), Lockwood va Rutherford (1996) da sii dung md hinh yeu td' ha'p d i n de phan tich anh hudng cua vi tri va cac thupc tinh khac tdi gia da't cdng nghiep. Mdt sd' nghien cQu ciing cho tha'y tac dpng cua dien tich mat bang, khoang each tdi gia tri cua thifa da't, hay tac dpng cua y l u to' mdi tnfdng tdi gia da't. Vf du, Thomas (2002) cho tha'y gia da't trong eac KCN cd d n h i l m tha'p hdn khoang 30% so vdi gia da't trong cac KCN khong bi d nhiem.
Saz-Salazar va Garcia-Menendez (2005) sxi dung md hinh yeu to' iQc ha'p dan de phan tich sQ khac biet ve gia da't trong cac KCN do n h a nudc va tU n h a n xay diing va dilu hanh.
Viee udc tinh cac md hinh gia thue dat cho khu viie edng va tU cho thay ed sii khac biet dang ke ve gia thue da't giQa hai hai loai hinh KCN nay. Cac ket qua Udc lUdng cua Saz-Salazar va Garcia-Menendez (2005) cho tha'y, cac bien vi tri n h u khoang each den dudng cao td'c hay khoang each den cac trung tam kinh te d l u co tac ddng den gia da't trong cac KCN, nhUng tac dpng nay m a n h hdn trong cac KCN tU n h a n so vdi cac KCN do n h a nUdc quan ly.
Gia ban da't hoac cho t h u e da't dai b a n trong cae KCN khdng nha't thie't phan a n h nhu c i u thi tnfdng v l da't cdng nghiep. MQc gia nay trong cac KCN do cac edng ty n h a nudc xay dilng thudng bi anh hudng bdi chinh saeh cdng nghiep va dUdc xac dinh de trang trai chi phi xay diing. Itoh (2013) danh gia cae yeu to' anh hudng den sil sSn sang t r a
t i l n cua eac cdng ty tQ nhan va gia ban dat trong cae KCN d N h a t Ban. Gia ban dat dUdc Udc tinh sii dung ky t h u a t OLS, va sii san . sang tra tien dUdc Udc tfnh si( dung mo hinh probit cho giai doan tU nam 2002 den n a m 2007. K i t qua Udc tinh cho tha'y sU k M c biet ve cac yeu to quyet dinh gia ban dat va si^
s i n sang tra tien cua cac doanh nghipp. Ket qua Udc tfnh cho tha'y vi6c dinh gia da't trong eac KCN do cac cdng ty n h a nUdc xay diing la khdng hidu qua va t h i l u linh hoat, khdng p h a n a n h d i y du n h u cau v l dat cdng nghiep cua cac doanh nghiep.
P h a n tich da tieu chi (multi-criteria analysis) dUdc s\i dung rdng rai trong cac bai toan r a quyet dinh trong n h i l u linh vQc khac n h a u tQ kinh te hpc, tai chinh, d i u tQ, kinh doanh quan ly nguon lilc cho tdi cac va'n de v l an toan giao thdng, y te va thiet k l ky thuat. Velasquez va Hester (2013) khao sat cac phUdng phap p h a n tich da tieu chi t h u d n g dupe sxi d u n g t r o n g qua t r i n h r a quyet dinh, tQ cac ly thuyS't ldi ich thupc tinh (multi-atribute unility theory), p h a n tich theo thU bac (analytical hierarchy process), phan tieh tham so' (data development analysis), cho d i n cae phUdng phap phan tich xep hang (outranking methods) nhU ELECTRE va PROMETHEE. Cac tac gia nay p h a n tich Qu nhUdc diem cua mdi phQdng phap va tinh Qng dung cua moi phUdng phap, va cho rang viec ap dung dong thdi cac phUdng phap khac n h a u se giup h a n che nhUdc d i l m cua moi phQdng phap.
Ramos va Fonseca (2016) xay dilng mot each tiep can phUdng p h a p luan n h i m ho trd va n a n g cao hieu q u a hoach dinh cdng nghidp d t h u n g lung Ave, Bd Dao Nha. Cac tac gia sii dung phQdng p h a p p h a n tich da tieu chi n h a m danh gia t i n h h a p d i n cua cac KCN, hay ndi each khac la k h a n a n g t h u hiit d i u tQ cua cac KCN. Trong nghien cQu nay, dac tinh cua cac KCN ha tang, dich vu va tinh cd t h i tiep can cua cac KCN (tQc la k h a n a n g tiep can cac t u y e t dUdng cao td'c, cang b i l n va san bay). Cac thupc t i n h cua KCN se
6 NghiSn aiu Kinh ti'sff8(495) - Thing 8/2019
Phdt trien khung phuang phdp.
dQdc xac dinh d i l m s^ va dQdc t o n g hdp lai t h a n h mpt chi tigu chung t h i h i e n mQc dp ha'p d i n eua KCN, Ramos va Fonseca (2016) stf dung cac q u y i n s6^ theo thQ h a n g d l t i n h chi sd've mQc dp ha'p d i n cua KCN.
P h a n tich da tieu chi la m p t q u a t r i n h phQc tap, ddi hoi viec p h a n tich va d a n h gia nhieu y l u t6 k h a c n h a u . T u y n h i e n , da phan so lieu dQdc sii d u n g t r o n g p h a n tich da tieu chi lien q u a n d e n cac t h d n g t i n ve dia ly. Rikalovic, Cosic va Lazarevic (2014) thao l u a n v l viec sut d u n g phQdng p h a p da tigu chi dila t r e n He tho'ng t h o n g t i n dia l;y (Geographical I n f o r r m a t i o n S y s t e m — GIS) dd'i vdi viee iQa chpn dia diem d a t n h a m a y . P h a n tieh da tieu chi dila t r e n GIS gom h a i giai doan la t h a n h loc (screening) va d a n h gia (evaluation) cac phUdng an, vdi cac budc thile hien k h a c n h a u tQ viec xac dinh va'n d l , xac dinh t i e u c h u a n , cho diem va chuan hda cac tieu c h u a n , p h a n tich cae Ilia chon sil dung GIS cho d e n xac d i n h trong so, k i t hdp eac t i e u c h u a n va p h a n tich n h a y cam.
Viec tich hdp cac hd tho'ng GIS vao p h a n tich da tieu chi cung dUdc thUc hiSn t r o n g nhieu nghien cQu g a n day. P e r e i r a va cong sQ (2008) p h a n tich viec liia chpn dia diem xay dQng KCN sii d u n g phQdng p h a p p h a n tich da tieu chf k i t hdp vdi he thd'ng t h o n g tin GIS va ly t h u y i t Fuzzy. Cac tac gia cho tha'y rang chi phi v a n t a i la n h a n td" q u a n trpng nha't trong viec liia chpn dia diem.
AissaTaibi (2016) sii d u n g phQdng p h a p phUdng p h a p x i p h a n g (outranking methods) PROMETHEE k i t hdp vdi h$ thong thong tin dia ly (GIS) d l xep hang cac KCN d Algeria.
2. D e x u a t k h u n g p h a n t i c h d a n h g i a x^p h a n g c a c K C N c u a V i e t N a m 2.1. Mo hinh dinh gid theo yeu to ha'p ddn
_ Trong mo hinh dinh gia theo y l u to' ha'p d i n (hedonic pricing model), gia cua mpt KCN p h u thudc vko cac daic trQng cua KCN do n h u vi t r i dia ly (khoang each d i n dUdng
qud'c 16, ga dQdng s i t , s a n bay h a y cang bien), cd sd h a t a n g tai KCN dd (kha n a n g cung ca'p dien, nudc, i n t e r n e t . . . ) , hay cac dich vu s i n cd ciia KCN (nha hang, q u a n cafe...). Muc tieu cua mo h i n h n h i m d i l n giai gia t h u e da't dai, n h a xudng t a i KCN d u a t r e n eac dac trUng ndi tren. Cac md h i n h de xac d i n h gia cd t h i la cae md h i n h ddn gian n h u mo h i n h t u y i n tfnh h a y cac md h i n h phQc t a p hdn nhU md h i n h mu, mo h i n h l o g a r i t h m . . . Viee lUa chpn cac mo h i n h n a y se dUde d a n h gia va t u y theo tQng bd sd'lieu cho phii hdp.
Gia sil gia t h u e ciia KCN Y va cac dac t i n h a n h h u d n g d e n gia cua m a n h da't nhU dien tich KCN, cac thdng so' ve vi tri dia ly, cd sd h a t a n g va dich vu dUdc lUdng hda va ky hieu l a n iQdt la ^ i , X2,...> Xn, t a c i n xay dilng h a m bieu dien gia t h u e cua KCN mot each tong quat ed dang F = / ( X i , ^ 2 ' — » ^ n ) - Cac n g h i e n cQu t h u d n g xay dUng cac h a m sii d u n g mdt so' it cac dac t i n h m a v i n cd t h e xay dilng dQdc h a m gia cd sai sd' cha'p n h a n dupc. T r o n g t h u c t l k h i xay dilng h a m gia n e u sii d u n g q u a n h i l u thudc t i n h se d a n d i n s a i so' k h d n g d'n dinh. De b a n e h i k h a n a n g t r e n , can t h i l t p h a i xay dilng mot quy t i c de chpn r a nhQng dac t i n h cd a n h hQdng n h i e u nha't d i n gia t h u e KCN.
Ve m a t 1^ t h u y e t , cd n h i l u each liia chpn cac dac t i n h a n h h u d n g d i n gia t h u e KCN, vi du cd t h e t i n h hiep phUdng sai cua cac dac t i n h va gia roi chpn r a nhQng dae t i n h cd hiep phQdng sai ldn nha't. Cach lam n h u t r e n cd t h e d i n d e n nhQng dac tfnh co mo'i q u a n h e t u y i n t i n h vdi n h a u d l u cd hiep phUdng sai vdi gia ra't ldn dUdc chpn, trong khi cd t h e chi c i n liia chpn mpt dae tinh.
D I h a n c h i nhUdc d i l m tren, cd t h i ap d u n g phUdng p h a p t i n h toan tQng bQdc mpt d l t h e m vao eac dac trQng dUa t r e n viec k i t hdp t i n h toan hiep phUdng sai va Qdc lUdng gia theo tQng bien.
Trong trQdng hdp ciia Viet N a m , phQdng p h a p dUdc Ilia chpn d u a t r e n ky t h u a t toi
NghiSn cilu Kinh t4s68(495) - Thing 8/2019
Phat trien khung phuong phdp .
Uu vdi quan diem ta't ca dUdc p h a n a n h trong sai so' cua md hinh, nhQng dac tinh khdng e i n thiet va khdng dUdc liia chpn vao md hinh se cd he so' lien q u a n b a n g 0. Ky hieu ta't ea eae t h a m so' trong h a m gia t h a n h mpt vec td /? = (^0^,02,— ,0i) va gpi
|/5|o l i so' nhQng p h a n tQ khac 0 ciia p (chuan khdng). Do dd can giai quye't hai toan td'i Uu
Il/W- ,x')-y'|+A.|,
Ham muc tieu cua b a i toan la tdng cua h a i phan, p h a n dau chinh la sai so' cua md hinh, p h a n sau la p h a n tinh so' dae tinh dUde dUa vao md hinh. Mong mud'n eiia chung ta la so' dac tinh ft va sai so' la nhd nha't. Neu trong md h i n h cang nhieu dac tinh thi gia tri h a m muc tieu se bi p h a t mot lUdng cang ldn. He so' X la mdt he so' dUdng va dUdc gpi la he so' p h a t . Khi gia tri nay cang ldn se cang it dac tfnh dUdc dUa vao trong mo hinh tfnh toan.
Viec giai quyet b a i t o a n t r e n se yeu c i u nhQng t h u a t t o a n td'i Qu phQe t a p vi h a m
^a,+Y^a^Xl^YJL ""> •'^'^' " >"
muc tieu Iii khong liSn tuc, thong thuong co the' giai quye't biing cac t h u a t toan giai dia phuong hoac xa'p xi bai toan bang mot bai toan d§ giai hon ma khong lam t h a y doi tinh chat. Mot trong nhQng phudng p h a p thuong duoc ap dung la thay thS c h u a n khong bang chuan mgt, |/?|i - Lk\Pk\ ™ ta CO mot bai toan toi Uu loi, khong k h a vi
min\Y}Kxi,Xi XI,)-Y<\+A.\I1\J,
u = i
Nhieu nghien ciiu nghieng ve xil ly dQ lieu da cho thay ket qua tinh^ toan vdi chu^n mpt la r a t gan vdi chuan khong.
Ngoai ra, ve m a t ly t h u a t cac n h a nghien ciSu da chflng minh dflgc bai toan vdi chuan khong la tfldng dfldng vdi mot bai toan vdi chu^n |/?|p = (IM'f (P > 0 du nhd).
Ap dung cho md h i n h tuye'n tinh va md hinh bac hai da neu d tren, lan lUdt p h a i giai hai bai toan td'i Uu sau day:
nm{
liii 2^ aQ + 2_^akXl T
+A(|COI+2JM+ Allaa| + 2 K . l ^ - ^ ^ k . ^ !
2.2. PhUdng phdp phdn tich da tieu chi
PhUdng p h a p p h a n tich da tieu chi (Multi-criteria Analysis) diia tren so' lieu d i l u t r a khao s a t tU cac KCN dUa tren cac tieu chi cd sd h a tang, dich vu va kha nang t i i p can (accessibility) de thiic hien danh gia va x i p h a n g cac KCN nay.
Cu the, cac cau hdi ve cd sd ha t a n g va dich vu se d dang cau hdi h a i lUa chon cd hoac khong v l cac dieu kien cd sd ha t a n g cung n h u cae dich vu san cd cua KCN. Moi cau tra ldi ed Qng vdi 1 diem va mdi cau t r a ldi khdng Ung vdi 0 diem.
V l k h a n a n g tiep can, cac cau hdi se n h i m muc dich tim hieu v l dia dilm KCN.
KCN dupe xem la ha'p dan hdn n l u gan dUdng qud'c Id, ga dUdng sat, san bay hoac gan cang bien. Cach tfnh diem se dUa tren nghien cQu ciia Ramos va Fonseca (2016).
Cu the, kha n a n g tiep can cua KCN se dUdc danh gia la "to't", tUdng Qng vdi 1 diem, neu khoang each tQ KCN dd den dUdng qud'c Id, ga dudng s i t , san bay hoac cang b i l n nhd hdn hoac b a n g mdt niia khoang each xa nha't do nhdm nghien cQu dat ra (D < Dmax/'^-)- K h a n a n g tiep can cua KCN dUde d a n h gia la " t r u n g binh", tUdng iing vdi 0,5 dilm, n l u khoang each tU KCN do den dudng qud'c Id, ga dUdng sat, san bay hoac cang bien n a m trong khoang mot niia khoang each xa nha't den khoang each xa nha't do nhdm n g h i e n cQu dat ra
NghiSn ciiu Kinh teso 8(495) - Thing 8/2019
Phat trien liliung phuong phap .
(Dmi.r/2 < D < 0 „ „ ) . Cuoi cung, k h a n a n g san bay hoac cang bien ldn hdn khoang each tiep can ciia KCN dflpc d a n h gia la "khong ldn n h a t do n h o m nghien cflu dat r a tot", tfldng flng vdi 0 diem, n e u k h o a n g each (D > D „ „ ) . Vi du ve each t i n h diem k h a tfl KCN do de'n dfldng quo'c 16, ga dfldng sSt, n a n g tie'p can dupc t h e hien trong bang 1.
BANG 1: Vi d u v e d a n h g i a k h a n a n g t i e p c a n c i i a K C N Khoang cdch
ldn nh^t (km) 3,49 20,08 69,90 51,91
Kha nang ti^p c|n Dudng quoc 16
Ga dudng sat Siinbay Cang bien
Tdt (1)
D < 1,745 D < 10,040 D < 34,950 D < 25,955
Trang binh (0,5)
1,745 <D< 3,49 10,040 <D< 20,08 34,950 <D< 69,90 25,955<D< 51,91
Khdng tdt (0)
D > 3,49 D > 20,08 D > 69,90 D > 51,91
Nguon Ramos va Fonseca (2016).
MUc dp ha'p d i n cua KCN dUa t r e n ba tieu vdi mdi tieu chf cua tQng KCN. Vf du v l each ehi ed sd ha tang, dich vu va k h a n a n g tiep tinh mQc dp ha'p dan dupe the hien trong can se dUdc tinh bang diem t r u n g binh doi hang 2.
BANG 2: Vi d u v e d a n h g i a mijfc d o h a p d a n c u a KCN Co sd ha ting
^in
mifif,a)xlQO\
X Infra: tong di^m v6 ca sd ha tSng 15: s6' tieu chi danh gia
^ S f l r
Z(I'iftu)x 100~
13 X Sew. tong diem v6 dich
vu 13: s6' tieu chi danh gia
Kha nang ti^p can (Wnfra) X 1 0 0 \
Y. Access: tdng di^m vi kha nang tiSp can 5: sd tieu chi danh gia NguSn: Ramos va Fon.seca (2016).
Sau khi cd day du t h o n g tin v l cd sd h a tang, dich vu va k h a n a n g tiep can ciia cac KCN, phuong p h a p p h a n tich da t i e u chf dUdc sxi dung de d a n h gia va xep h a n g dUa t r e n diem ciia cae KCN. D a u tien, 4 kich han vdi t r o n g so khae n h a u giQa eac t i e u chi se dUdc lap ra. Vdi kich b a n 1, 3 t i e u chi se cd t r p n g s d ' b a n g n h a u (0,33; 0,33;
0,33), vdi kich b a n nay, ca 3 tieu chi d l u cd t a m q u a n t r p n g n h u n h a u khi d a n h gia mUc dp ha'p d a n cua KCN. Kich b a n 2 d a t t r p n g s o ' n h i l u hdn eho cd sd ha t a n g (0,5), t r o n g khi trpng so' cho dieh vu va k h a n a n g t i i p can b a n g n h a u (0,25; 0,25). Vdi kich
b a n nay, cd sd h a t a n g dUdc cac doanh n g h i e p q u a n t a m n h i e u hdn h a i tieu ehi cdn lai. Kich b a n 3 d a t t r p n g so' n h i e u hdn cho dich vu (0,5), t r o n g k h i t r p n g so' cho cd sd ha t a n g va k h a n a n g tiep can b a n g n h a u (0,25; 0,25). Vdi kich b a n nay, cac doanh n g h i e p se q u a n t a m n h i l u d i n dich vu san cd cua eac KCN n a y k h i lUa chpn dau tu. Kich b a n 4 d a t t r p n g sd' n h i l u hdn cho k h a n a n g t i i p can (0,5), t r o n g khi t r p n g so' cho cd sd h a t a n g va dich vu b a n g n h a u (0,25; 0,25)- Vdi kich b a n nay, k h a n a n g tiep c a n ciia KCN dUde xem la q u a n t r p n g hdn h a i tieu chi cdn lai- Vi du ve
Nghien ciiU Kinh t^so 8(495) • Thing 8/2019 9
Phdt trl^n khung phuong phdp.
each t i n h diem tQng p h a n ( p a r t i a l score) cua eac KCN dUde t h i hien t r o n g b a n g 3-
BANG 3: Vi d u v e e a c h t i n h d i e m tifng p h a n c a c K C N _ ScorBij > {xj + (yj) => Scoretj = 20
10
{xj - [xj + ff;)) > Scorei > fe + Uj) ^ Score^ = 5 Scoreij < {xj + Qj) =» Scorejj = 0 Scoreij la diem ciia K C N i Irong kich ban /
Xj la diem t m n g binh c u a toan b 6 cac K C N trong kich ban /
Oj la d p lech tieu chudn (standard deviation) ciia diem toan bd cac K C N trong kjch ban /
NguSir. Ramos va Fonseca (2016) T h U h a n g c u a K C N s e dUde q u y e t d i n h
d U a t r e n t d n g c u a t o a n b d d i e m t Q n g p h a n c u a K C N d d (^jScorBij). K C N cd td'ng d i e m c a n g e a o t h i e a n g h a ' p d a n v d i c a c n h a d ^ u tU.
D o c a c t h u d c t i n h v l v i t r i v a sQ h a ' p d a n c u a c a c K C N d u p c t h i l c h i e n b a n g e a c h g a n t r p n g sd' v a la'y t o n g c u a c a c d i e m tCfng p h i n , t h Q h a n g cud'i e i i n g s e l a m p t sU k i t h d p t u y e n t f n h t r o n g v i e c d a n h d d i giQa bd'n k i c h b a n k h a c n h a u , P h U d n g p h a p n a y t h e h i e n d i y d i i s i i d a n h d d i c u n g n h U r u i r o t r u n g b i n h g i Q a t o a n b d e a c t i e u chf, d o n g n g b i a v d i v i e e m p t K C N cd m o t y e u t o ' k h d n g td't cd t h e dUpc b u d a p b d i m d t v a i y e u td' td't k h a c t r o n g d a n h g i a x e p h a n g .
3. M o t s o n h a n x e t k e t l u a n
C a c n p i d u n g dUdc p h a t t r i ^ n t r o n g n g h i e n cQu n a y cd t h e l a m cd s d l y t h u y e t d e tQ d o x a y d i i n g c a c c u p c k h a o s a t v e c h a t l U d n g v a x e p h a n g c a c K C N t h e d n h i i n g t i e u c h i k h a c n h a u . K i t q u a x e p h a n g d a n h g i a s e g d p p h i n q u a n t r o n g g i i i p c a e K C N x a c d i n h l d i t h e e a n h t r a n h t r o n g m p t t i m n h i n t o n g t h e , d i n b v i v i t h e t r e n t h i t r U d n g n d i e h u n g , q u a d d t a p t r u n g n a n g c a o n a n g lilc c a n h t r a n h , t a n g h i e u q u a h o a t d d n g vEin h a n h , tU d d e a i t h i e n c h a ' t l U d n g e u a K C N , t h u h u t h i e u q u a h d n c a c d o a n h n g h i e p cd n h u c a u . K h u n g p h a n t i e h n a y e u n g cd t h i l a cd s d d e d U a r a c h i so' x i p h a n g c a c K C N , p h u c v u c d n g t a c q u a n l y v a q u y h o a e h h e t h d ' n g c a c K C N t r e n t o a n qud'e, d d n g g d p v a o v i e c phd'i h d p x a y
d i i n g c a c c h i e n lUde q u y h o a c h v u n g . 6 c&p d i a p h Q d n g , k i t q u a d a n h g i a x i p h a n g c u n g c h o p h e p c a c d i a p h Q d n g d i n h v i dUdc v i t r i c u a m i n h t r e n b a n d d c o n g n g h i e p h d a qud'c g i a , g i u p r a q u y l t d i n h x a y d i l n g k l h o a c h p h a t t r i e n k i n h t e - x a h d i e u a d i a p h U d n g . / .
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Ngay nhan bai: 9-6-2019 Ngay duyfit dang: 17-7-2019
Nghien ciiu Kinh ^s68(495) - Thing 8/2019 11
