DIEN DAN TRAG DGI
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KHA NANG VUQIT QUA KHUNG HUANG TAI CHINH CUA XINGAPO VA BAIHUC KINH NGHllM OOl V0I VitT NAM
ThS. N G U Y E N THj GIANG Hoc vien Ngan hang
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Given its small open economy, Singapore is extremely vulnerable to external shocks, so global crises always negatively affected Singapore economy.
However, facing financial storms such as 2007 Asian financial and monetary crisis or 2008 global financial, Singapore has demonstrated the ability to overcome crisis marvelously.
The ways of Singapore to respond to these crises have been very active and initia- tive. Singapore government has identified three main pil- lars to face crises as follows:
maintaining soundness and safety of financial institutions;
ensuring smooth operation of the market; and strengthening the confidence of all investors.
In Vietnam, Singapore experiences are truly useful and can be learnt to: estab- lish an agency responsible for assessirig impacts of crisis, based on which timely and appropriate responses will be made; keep on liberalizing financial sector, avoid direct interventions of the govern- ment and respect market principles...
'" Ngdy 7/01/1998. ty gid glQa ddng <36la Xingapo vd ddng ddlo My dd gidm W 1,43 xud'ng con 1,75, tadng Qng vdi mCfc gidm 18,3%
trong vdng 6 thdng.
T
d nhdng ndm 1980, bang nd Ipc cua m i n h , Xingapo da trd thdnh mpt trong nhdng trung tam tdi chfnh quan trpng nhd't cua chau A.Sau sd c d cua he thdng Bretton Woods vao ndm 1973 cho den nay, ngoai cupc suy thodi kinh te ngan x i y ra vao thdng 9/1985, gidng nha h l u het cdc nadc chau A khdc, Xingapo dd p h i i ddi mat vdi hai cupc khung h o i n g kinh te Idn: l l n t h d nha't khi chju i n h hadng lay lan td khung h o i n g tdi chfnh chau A bat ngudn td Thdi Lan vao thang 7/1997; l l n thd hai do tdc dpng cda cupc khung h o i n g tdi chfnh toan cau thdng 7/2008. La mpt nen kinh te nhd va md, Xingapo rd't d i bi tdn thaong trade nhdng bien dpng td ben ngodi, bdi vay, tdc dpng cua cac cupc khung h o i n g tai chfnh da gay ra nhdng bat Ipi khdng nhd ddi vdi nen kinh te Xingapo. Tuy nhien, ddng trade cdc cOn bao tdi chfnh, Xingapo deu dd chdng td k h i ndng vapt qua khdng h o i n g cda minh mot c i c h than ky.
1 . Xingapo trade cuoc khung hoang tai chmh - tien te chau A 1997 Cung nha cdc nadc khdc, cupc khung h o i n g tdi chfnh - tien te chau A x i y ra da keo ddng ddia Xingapo sut gia t r i m trpng , i n h hadng xa'u den thi tradng chdng k h o i n cung nha thj tradng bd't ddng s i n , khien ngdnh tdi chfnh suy yeu vd ty le that nghiep giajtang.
40 THONG TIN & Di; BAD KINH TE - XA HOI So 69 (9.2011)
Bang 1 : Tac dong cua khung hoang den GDP va mot sd^ nganh kinh te quan trong cua Xingapo
Dan vi: %
GDP
Cdng nghiep s i n xud't Cdng nghiep xay dpng Ban budn vd ban 1^
Khdch san vd nhd hdng Van t i i vd thdng tin Djch vu tai chfnh Djch vu kinh doanh
Nam 1997 8,9 4,5 15,3 6,4 1,9 9,2 23,4 8,5
Nam 1998 0,3 -0,4 4,0 -4,1 -3,3 5,3 -8,8 4,9
Nguon: Dd'i phd vdi khung hoang tai chfnh toan cau, kinh nghiem Ddng A, Dai hoc Bucharest.
De ddi phd vdi nhdng tdc ddng tieu cac do khung h o i n g tai chfnh - tien te chdu A gay ra, Xingapo dd thpc hien mpt loat cdc bien phdp, trong dd chu trpng den viec tidp tuc cdc nd lac nham duy tri ndn mdng kinh te vdng chac dd ed td trade dd, vdi trpng tdm la phdt trien ngdnh ngdn hang; tidp thu mdt he thdng hdi dodi cd hieu q u i (dong ddIa dapc gidm sdt daa vdo mpt rd tien te theo ty trpng thaang mai chd khdng theo mpt dPn vj t i i n te nhd't d j n h , giup g i i m cac nguy cP rui ro); thiet lap he thdng laong ed the dieu chinh dape. Ben canh dd, Nhd node cdn kiem sodt viec cho vay ddIa Xingapo eda cdc ngdn hang.
Td thdng 7/1997, Cue Tien te Xingapo (MAS) dd thi hdnh mpt sd chfnh sdch tien te de hd trp cho nen kinh te dang xudng ddc nha:
viec cho phep ddIa Xingapo dao dpng trong pham vi rdng hpn do nhdng ba't dn trong thj tradng tdi chfnh. Trong ngan han, MAS " t h i "
cho ddng ddIa Xingapo g i i m so vdi USD M y , theo cung xu hadng khu vac de d i m b i o vj the cua m i n h . Vd lau d d i , MAS vdn gid vdng muc tieu la q u i n ly ty gia hdi dodi de dn djnh gid c i . Cho du thj tradng tidn te, chdng khodn vd bd't ddng s i n ddng trade nhieu sdc ep trong giai doan nda cudi ndm 1 997, Chfnh phu Xingapo vdn chaa thac hien viec can thipp trpe tiep vdo cdc thj tradng nay. Den gida ndm 1998, chfnh phu Xingapo mdi sd dung 2 ty ddIa Xingapo ngoai ngdn sdch vdi muc tieu chinh Id de g i i m chi phi kinh doanh, g i i m thud va cdc k h o i n ddng gdp cho Chfnh p h u ; tdi trp cho cdc da dn phdt trien vd dao tao ky nang cho cac doanh nghipp trong nadc nhdm cung ed ha tdng kinh te; dn djnh thj tradng bd't dpng s i n bdng cdch ngdng cdc
hoat ddng mua ban dat cdng cho den cudi nam 1999.
De cdu van tang tradng GDP dang tupt ddc vd nan that nghiep leo thang, mpt dpt "cdu trp" mdi lai dapc tien hdnh vao thang 11/1998, vdi tdng trj gia 10,5 ty ddIa Xingapo, nham muc dfch g i i m chi phf kinh doanh xud'ng them 15% nSa. Den nam tai chfnh 1999, Chfnh phu Xingapo dd dp dung chfnh sach tai chfnh md rpng vdi trpng tam la dau ta cho phat trien giao due va c i i thien ket ca'u ha tang.
Cac no lac cua Chinh phu Xingapo dd mang lai ket qua tfch cpc, the hien d viec gia nhd dat dn djnh trd lai vao nda cudi nam 1998. Ddc biet, chi trong vdng chaa d l y 2 nam, Xingapo da vapt qua cupc khung h o i n g tdi chfnh chau A mpt each ngoan muc, \?di mdc tdng tradng dat dapc trong nam 1999 Id 5,4%; td thdng 12/1998 den cung k'/ nam 1999, {y le tha't nghiep gidm td 4,5%
xud'ng cdn 2,9%.
2. Cdch thdc vUOt qua khung hoang tai chfnh toan cau 2008 cua Xingapo
Mac du dat tdc dp tang tradng kinh te blnh quan gan 8% trong giai doan 2004-2007, nhOng Xingapo vdn la nadc d i u tien trong khu vpc Ddng A chju i n h hadng cua cupc khung h o i n g tdi chfnh todn cau khi nen kinh te the gidi bade vao cupc suy thoai thdng 10/2008. Dieu ndy la mpt minh chdng rd rdng cua tinh d§
bj tdn thaong cua nen kinh te Xingapo trade cdc cu "sd'c" todn cau.
So'69 (9.2011) THONG TIN & DU BAD KINH Tfe - XA HOI 41
DIEN DAN TRAG DOI
Bang 2: Tac dong cua khung hoang kinh te ndm 2008 den G D P va mpt sd nganh kinh te quan trong cua Xingapo
Dan vi tinh: %
GDP
Cdng nghiep s i n xua't Cdng nghiep xay dpng Ban budn vd bdn l§
K h i c h san vd nhd hdng Djch vu tdi chfnh Djch vu kinh doanh
Nam 2006 8,4 11,9 3,6 10,3 7,4 11,7 5,3
Nam 2007 7,8 5,9 18,2 7,4 4,9 15,7 9,1
Nam 2008 1,1 -4,1 30,3
i
2,6 1 1,2
5,5 7,4 Nguon: Ddi phd vdi khung hoang, Kinh nghiem Ddng A, Dai hoc Burachest.
De dd'i phd vdi nhdng tac dpng tieu cdc do cupc khung h o i n g tdi chfnh toan cau mang lai, Chinh phii Xingapo dd thiet ke vd thac hien mpt loat cdc chfnh sdch nham thodt ra khdi tinh trang suy thoai kinh te, bao gdm d i m b i o tien gdi cho cdc cd nhdn vd doanh nghiep, kfch thfch cho vay ngan hang va cac khoin tfn dung giup ngan chan tinh trang thd't nghiep gia tang.
Chfnh phu Xingapo da daa ra gdi g i i i cdu kinh te trj g i i 20,5 ty ddIa Xingapo trong nam tdi khda 2009, vd l l n dau tien trong Ijch sd, Chfnh phu da quyet djnh md kho dp trd de chi 4,9 ty ddIa Xingapo cho giai phdp hd trp cdc doanh nghiep vapt qua con bdo tdi chfnh the gidi. De g i i m hau q u i cua viec ngadi dan g i i m chi tieu, Chfnh phu da khuyen khfeh doanh nghiep tang laong, ddi lai Chfnh phu se cho hoan thue cao hon. Cho den nay, Xingapo dapc xem Id mot trong nhdng qudc gia cd mdc thud thu nhdp thap nhd't the gidi.
Vdi nhdng nd lac dd, Xingapo da tdng bade vapt qua cupc khung h o i n g nay mdt cdch ngoan muc. Theo thdng edo bao chf dape Chfnh phu Xingapo daa ra vdo ngdy 0 3 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 1 , ke td quy IV/2009 den nay, Xingapo dd dat dape nhdng eon sd d'n tapng trong phdt trien kinh te. Vdi mdc tang tradng 14,7%/nam, Xingapo da trd thanh qudc gia chau A cd tdc dp tang tradng nhanh nhd't trong nam 2010.
Bang 3: T'y le tang tradng GDP va mot sd nganh kinh te quan trong cua Xingapo nam 2009, 2010 Dan vi tinh: %
GDP
Cdng nghiep s i n xua't Cdng nghiep xay dang Djch vu s i n xua't cdng nghiep
Nam 2009
-1,3 -4,1
16,1
-1,4
Quy 1/2010
16,6 37,2 9,7 11,2
Quy 11/2010
19,4 45,3 11,5 11,8
Quy 111/2010
10,5 13,8 7,1
10
Quy I V / 2 0 1 0
12,5 28,2 -1,2 8,8
Nam 2010 14,7 30,4 6,5 10,4 Nguon: Thdng ke Xingapo, www.singstat.gov.sg.
4 2 THONG TIN & DU BAD KINH TE - XA HOI Sd'69 (9.2011)
3. Phi/ofng cham hanh dpng cua Xingapore trade cac con bao tai chinh
Nhin lai nhdng hanh dpng cua Xingapo khi ddi mat vdi cdc cupc khung h o i n g , cd the thay, c i c h thde hdnh dpng cua Xingapo trade cdc cupc khung h o i n g rat tfch cac, chu dong. De vapt qua khung h o i n g , Chfnh phu nadc ndy xdc djnh p h i i dpa tren 3 try cot chfnh:
(1) duy tri c i e djnh che tdi chfnh Idnh manh vd an todn; (2) d i m b i o cho thj tradng hoat ddng mot cdch nhjp nhdng vd (3) duy tri niem tin cua cdc nhd d i u ta. Dpa tren nhdng yeu t d cdn b i n dd, ket hpp vdi nhdng p h i n dng thfch hpp trong tdng hodn c i n h cu the, Xingapo dd tdng bade dat dapc nhdng ket q u i k h i quan.
VS vide duy tri cac dinh chd tai chfnh lanh manh va an toan:
Xingapo da thac hign bang viec tdng cadng hoat dpng thanh tra, giam sat cac djnh che tai chfnh mpt each thadng xuyen.
Dd dam bao cho thi trUdng hoat ddng mdt each nhip nhang:
Thj tradng t i i n te lien ngdn hdng cua Xingapo khdng t r i i qua dpt bidn dpng ndo Idm phaong hai den thj tradng LIBOR. Tuy nhien, vific md rdng eda thj tradng eda dat nadc nay cd nghTa Id hp khdng the "mien d j c h " trade tinh trang bat dn tai cdc khu vpc khdc tren todn c l u . MAS dd d i m b i o cdc djnh che tdi chfnh ed the tiep can nguon thanh k h o i n ddIa Xingapo vd USD bang 3 kgnh khde nhau.
MAS da duy tri dape thanh k h o i n d mdc do cao hon trong he thdng ngdn hdng vd lap ra "The thdc thadng trpe" cho phep tat c i cac ngdn hdng dape tidp cdn he thdng thanh todn dien td cda MAS, tao dieu kien cho cdc ngan hang dung cdc quy ddIa Xingapo de mua lai ddng ddIa Xingapo td MAS.
Tridn khai cac bidn phap dd duy tri Idng tin cua cac nha dau tU: Tren caong vj Id mpt trung tam tai chfnh qudc td, ngdy 16/10/2008, Chfnh phd Xingapo dd cdng b d kd hoach b i o d i m cho
c i c k h o i n tien gdi cua cd nhdn vd cae khdch hdng phi ngan hdng dape cap phep hoat dpng tai Xingapo.
Ben canh dd, Chfnh phu Xingapo cdn ddc biet chu trpng d e n ^ ' a n de giao due, dao tao ngudn nhdn Ipc.
Ngay e i trong khi dang ddi phd vdi tdc dpng cda cupc khdng h o i n g todn cau, Chfnh phu vdn danh sp quan tam ddc biet tdi viec tang cadng ndng Ipc trong ddi han, vd sp quan tam dd dapc the hien trong viec b i o trp cdng t i c dao tao giao sa kinh td vd tdi chfnh tai Tradng Dai hoc Qudc gia Xingapo.
4. Nguyen nhan dan den thanh cong cua Xingapo va kinh nghifm ddi vdi Viet Nam
Nguydn nhSn dan ddn thanh cdng cua Xingapo: Vdi [y le tiet kiem cao, nguon vdn da trd Idn, lau lapng d i u ta trde tiep td nadc ngoai cao, t'y- le np g i n nha khdng tdn tai, cdng nha viec de ra cdc bien phdp kjp thdi va quyet dodn 'de chdng lai nhdng i n h hadng tieu cpc den td cdc dpt khung h o i n g , Xingapo da chdng td dapc k h i ndng "chju ddn" trade cOn bdo khung h o i n g tdi chinh. Ddng thdi, k h i ndng linh hoat trong vi^c dieu chinh f/ le hdi dodi vd tien laong da gidp Xingapo hdi phuc tdt hon so vdi p h i n Idn cdc nadc trong khu vpc. Viec nd lac sd dung nhieu chien lapc cung mdt luc (ket hpp vdi chfnh sdch tdi chfnh vd tien te) da giup Xingapo trdnh daoc tinh hudng xau nhd't eda khung h o i n g . Ben canh dd, mpt nguyen nhdn quan trpng khdng the khdng nhae den, dd Id chat lapng bp may q u i n ly kinh td eda Nhd nPdc Xingapo vdi cac quan chdc vd vien chdc td Idu daoc biet den ve pham cha't kien djnh vd uy tin
S6' 69 (9.2011) THONG TIN & DU BAO KINH TE - XA HDI
43
DIEN DAN TRAG DGI
^cao dd lam cdc chfnh sdch dat hieu lac cao trong thac tien.
Kinh nghiem dd'i vdi Viet Nam: Do
mdc dp hpi nhdp eda nen kinh te Viet Nam vdi nen kinh te toan cau, ddc biet trong ITnh vpc ngdn hdng chaa sdu nen theo nhdn djnh cua nhieu nhd kinh te, cho den nay, Viet Nam ft bj tdc dpng cua cdc cupc khung hoing tdi chfnh todn cau. Tuy nhien, mpt thac te khdng the phd nhan Id tdc dpng lay lan eda khdng hoing tdi chfnh toan cau, dae biet Id cupc khung hoing ndm 2008 da gay ra nhdng i n h hadng tieu cpc ddi vdi nen kinh td Viet Nam, ddc biet Id tdi thj tradng chdng khodn, hoat dpng xuat nhdp khau, thj tradng lao dpng... Vi vay, viec ddnh gid dung vd todn dien tac dpng cua khdng hoing, dpa tren kinh nghiem cda nhdng nadc vapt qua khdng hoing thanh cdng trong thdi gian ngan nha Xingapo de ed nhdng phin dng phu hpp trong bdi cinh kinh te the gidi nhieu bien dpng Id vree Idm c i n thiet ddi vdi Viet Nam.
Nhdng kinh nghiem cua Xingapo ed the dp dung ddi vdi Viet Nam daoc khdi quat trgn 4 npi dung chfnh: mot
la, can thdnh lap co quan ddnh gid tdcddng cua khdng hoing de cd nhdng phin dng phu hpp trade nhdng tdc dpng cda nd; hai la, tiep tue thac hien ta do hda tdi chfnh, trdnh sii can thiep trae tiep eda Nhd nadc, tren eo sd tdn trpng cdc nguyen t i e thj tradng; ba la, d i u ta hieu qui de phdt tridn ngudn nhdn lac, ddc biet Id trong ITnh vpc tdi chfnh, ngdn hang; bdn la, tdng cadng hieu lac cda bd mdy nhd nPdc vd ddy dapc xem Id dieu kien het sdc quan trpng de thpc hien thdnh cdng muc tieu xay dpng he thdng tdi chfnh Idnh manh.D
BAO CAO NJiNG L^C CANH TRANH TOAN C&U 2011-2012: ] VltTNAMROTGBACSOVOlNAM2010 !
VCla qua, Diin ddn Kinh te t h ^ gidi (WEF) da cdng bo bdo edo Ndng luc cgnh tranh todn cdu 2011-2012, theo dd, Vipt Nam xep d vi tri thO 65 tren tdng sd 142 qudc gia dUdc khdo sdt, rdt 6 bgc so vdi ndm ngodi.
Trong sd cdc chi sd ndng Ipc cgnh tranh, Vipt Nam chf ddnh dapc tien bp rd rpt duy nhdt ve mdi tradng kinh te vT mo, tdng 20 bgc so vdi ndm ngodi. Tuy nhi§n, diem sdng ndy khdng tgo dapc sp thay ddi Idn khi 10/12 chlsd chfnh bi mdt didm. Trong bdn bdo edo, WEF to ra quan nggi v i tinh trgng Igm phdt dong tdng vdi tdc dp 2 con sd d Vipt Nam hipn nay, ty Ip thdm hpt ngdn sdch cao (6% trong ndm 2010), cd sd hg tdng khong bdt kip ddi hoi cua . ndn kinh te (dgc bipt id chdt lapng dadng giao thdng vd cdng I
•
bien). Chdt lupng gido due, mge du ed nhQng tien bd ddng kd so vdi ndm ngodi, nhang vdn ehl dapc xep d nhdm trung binh thdp.
Trong khi dd, thu tuc hdnh chfnh tidp tuc Id rdo cdn Idn ddi vdi cdc nhd ddu ta nude ngodi khi thdm nhgp thi tradng Vipt Nam.
De thdnh lgp doanh nghipp 6 Vipt Nam, trung binh phdi mdt 44 ngdy vd trdi qua 9 thu tuc vdi chi phf chiem khodng 12,1% so vdi thu nhdp trSn ddu ngadi. Do dd, quy che thdnh lgp doanh nghipp d Vipt Nam dape xem Id rdt ngng ne.
Ngodi ra, WEF cung td ra quan nggI ve quyen sd hClu trf tup vd khd ndng phdng chdng tham nhung cua Vipt Nam.
Theo bdo edo cua WEF, tfnh ddn cudi ndm 2010, Vif t Nam co sd ddn Id 89 tripu ngadi vd tdng thu nhgp qudc npi (GDP) dgt 103,6 ty USD, tPdng dUdng 0,37% GDP todn cdu. Theo do, thu nhdp binh qudn ddu ngUdi trung binh d mQc 1.174 USD/ndm. Con sd ndy dapc xem Id mot bade tien Idn trong nhOng ndm gdn ddy khi giup Vi0t Nam bade vdo ngadng cdc node ed thu nhgp trung binh. Tuy nhien, mOc thu nhdp ndy vdn thdp hdn 2.000 USD so vdi mac trung binh cue cdc nPdc dang phdt trIen tgi khu vpc.
Trong bdng xdp hgng, Thuy Sy tiep tuc ddn ddu the gidi v i mQc dp thugn Idi ddi vdi cdc hogt ddng kinh te. Xigapo vPpt len Thuy Dien, xep vi trf tha hai trong danh sdch. My tiep tuc bj tut hgng cgnh tranh trong ndm tha ba, dCfng d vi trf tha ndm. Cdc vj trf cdn Igi trong top 10 Idn lapt thudc ve Dac, Hd Lan, E)an Mgch, Nhgt Bdn vd Anh.D
P.V
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4 4 THONG TIN S. Dir BAD KINH TE - XA HOI SO 69 (9.2011)
