MOI QUAN HE GlQfA THANH KHOAN CO PHIEU VA CAU TRUC VON CUA CONG TY:
Qfo^^ "^V i^QHIEN Ctfu THI/C N G H I | M TAI VIET NAM
Ngay nhan: 23/7/2015 Ngky n h a n lai: 01/9/2015 Ngay duy&t dang: 10/12/2015 Ma s6: 12-15-16
TriiOng Bong LQC (*) • Nguy&n Thi Thu Vy (**)
Vo Van Dat (***)
Tom tdt: Muc tieu cua bdi viet ndy la nghien cdu dnh hddng eda thanh khodn CO phieu (TKCP) din cdu trdc vd'n cua cdc cong ty niem yi't tren Sd Giao dich chdng khodn TP.HCM (HOSE). Sd' lieu sd dung trong nghiin cdu Id sd lieu dang bdng dugc thu thap td bdo cdo tdi chinh vd cdc thdng tin giao dich ve c6 phie'u eda 70 cong ty trong giai doan 2009-2013. Ket qud u6c lUgng bdng md hinh hieu dng cd dinh cho thdy TKCP co mdi tuang quan nghich vdi^ ty^ U ng cua cdng ty. Ngodi ra, nghien cdu ndy con tim thdy cdc bdng chdng de kit ludn rdng ty sudt Igi nhuan vd Id chdn thui' phi ng co mdi tuang quan nghich vdi ty sd ng cua cdc cdng ty, trong khi do quy md cdng ty vd t^ le gid tri con lai cua tdi sdn cd dinh hdu hinh tren tdng tdi sdn lai co mdi tuang quan thudn vdi ty li ng cua cdng ty.
Tic khoa: Cdu trdc vdn, thanh khodn cd phii'u, cdng ty niem yet, HOSE.
G i d i t h i ^ u
Cau true von cong ty la chu de diTdc nhieu nha nghien cuTu dac biet quan t a m trong suo't nhang t h a p nidn gdn day, Cdc 1^ thuyet t a i chinh da chi ra r a n g cau true v5'n co a n h hiJdng den gia tri cong ty. Vi vay, viec xac dinh mOt cau true vdn hop ly de t5'i da hoa gid t r i cong ty la mot vS'n d l hS't siJc quan trpng trong quan t r i t a i chinh cong ty. Lien quan den chu de nay, phan ldn cac nghien cu:u thiic nghiem t a p trung vao viic xdc dinh cac n h a n to' a n h hud'ng den cau true von ciia cong ty (Antoniou, Guney va Paudyal, 2002; Wen, Rwegasira va Bilderbeek, 2002; Fraser, Zhang va Derashid, 2006; Delcoure, 2007; Sheikh va Wang, 2011). Cac n h a n to a n h haSng den cfi'u true von da difcfc tim tha'y trong cac nghidn cilu thi/c nghiem bao gom: quy mo, cO hoi p h a t tri^n, loi nhu|ln, nganh nghe kinh doanh cua doanh nghi$p, chi phi dai dien thong qua cau true sd hiJu, ca'u true h6i dong quan tri.. Gan day, mot so' n h a nghign cu'u cho r&ng TKCP c6 the a n h hiTdng dg'n c^u true v6'n cong ty.
Cu t h e la TKCP cao se d i n de'n chi phi v6'n chu sd hiJu t h a p vk vi v a y c6ng ty se ifti ti§n p h a t h a n h cd phie'u de t a n g von hcfn la vay nfl (Weston, Butler va Grulon, 2005). Cae nghifin ciJu thUc nghi§m dtfOc thi/c hi#n bdi Frieder va Martell (2006) va Lipson va Mortal (2010) da xac n h a n r a n g TKCP co mS^i ti/Ong quan nghich vdi ty s6' nd cua cac c6ng ty cd phdn niem yg't t r e n t h i trU&ng chiing khoan My.
O Viet Nam, cho de'n nay da co mgt so' nghiSn cu'u ve cac n h a n t d a n h hiidng de'n ca'u triic vo'n cua cdc cong ty (Nguyen vd Neelakantan, 2006; Truong Dong L6c va Vo Kilu Trang, 2008; L§ D a t Chi, 2013; Nguyen, Diaz-Rainey va Gregoriou, 2014). Tuy nhiSn, theo hieu bi^t td't n h a t cua n h o m tdc gid thi cho ddn nay chUa CO nghien ciJu n a o k h a m phd moi quan he giaa TKCP va ca'u true v6'n cong ty. Vi vay, muc tieu cua nghien cu'u ndy Id l a m phong phu t h i m cac b a n g chiJng thi/c nghiem v l mdi quan hg giQa TKCP va ca'u trdc vdn cong ty d cdc t h i triTcfng chiJng khodn mdi ndi th6ng qua vide nghien ciJu cho mot trudng hdp cu
t ^
I Congnghe n Q a i l H a i i g I S6'117«ThJng 12/2015
t h ^ l d cdc c6ng ty niem yg't trdn HOSE. P h i n con lai cua bdi vid't n a y dUdc cau true: p h d n 2 gidi thi^u ccf sd IJr lu4n ve moi quan h# giiJa '^^^^ ^^ ^^" ti^uc von cong ty, p h a n 3 mo t a so h^u sOt dung va phUdng phdp nghien cu'u, p h i n 4 tdm t d t cdc kd't qud nghien ciJu vd cu6'i cung Id kd't ludn ciia b a i v i ^ diTdc t r i n h bdy d p h i n 5.
T h a n h k h o a n co phiS'u va c^'u t r u e v o n c u a c d n g ty
TKCP Id mdi quan tdm h a n g dau cQa cdc n h a dau tu, cdc td chiJe t h a m gia thi trU&ng va CO quan quan ly thi trudng. StoU va Whaley (1983) cho r a n g chi phi giao dich cd phid'u ndn dUdc xem xet khi dinh gid chiJng khodn vd tranh lu4n r a n g ddy la n h a n t6' giai thich cho loi nhudn ky vong cao do'i vdi cdc cd phieu CO t h a n h khoan t h a p . N h i l u nghien cdu thUe nghiem da cung cd'p cdc bang chdng cd sU thd'ng n h a t cao ve sU a n h hudng ciia t h a n h khoan dd'n ldi nhu$n ky vpng (ehi phi von chu sd hflu) cua cdc cd phieu (Acharya vd Pedersen, 2005;
Easley vd Ohara, 2004; Pastor va Stambaugh, 2003; Amihud, 2002; Easley, Hvidkjaer va Ohara, 2002). Trdn cd sd md'i quan hd giCa t h a n h khoan vd chi phi vdn chu sd hflu, md'i quan h$ giiJa giUa TKCP vd cdu true vd'n cua cong ty CO thd dUdc giai thich trdn cd sd ly thuyd't ddnh ddi (trade-off theory) va ly thuydt trdt t u Uu tidn (pecking oder theory).
Ly thuyd't d d n h ddi cho r a n g d i to'i da hoa gid t r i cho cdc chu sd hffu, cdc cong ty se lUa chpn mdt ty le h o p ly gida nd va vd'n chu sd hiJu (ctfu true vd'n td'i Uu). Ndi mpt cdch khac, cdc cdng ty ludn tim kid'm mpt sU kd't hop to't nha't giUa nd vd vd'n chu sd hflu t r e n co sd chi phi vd'n chu sd hflu rong vd chi phi nd rong. Vi vay, trong dieu kien cac yd'u to' k h a c k h d n g ddi, cac n h a n td 1dm giam chl phi vd'n chu sd hflu rong, chang h a n nhU tinh t h a n h k h o a n cua cd phieu tdng, se 1dm cho vo'n chu sd hflu trd n e n h a p d a n hdn so vdi n o , d a n de'n ty t r p n g nd giam trong cau true vd'n cua cdng ty.
Khung 1;^ thuye't phd bien nhtft cho viec lua chpn cac ngudn vdn trong cdng ty la ly thuydt t r d t t u Uu t i e n do Myer vd Majluf (1984) de xutft. Ly thuyd't n a y cho r a n g do sU lua chpn bd't ldi (adverse selection), thfl tU Uu tidn trong lUa chon cdc ngudn vd'n dd tdi trd trong cdng ty l l n lUdt Id: ldi nhuan gifl lai, nd va phdt h d n h cd phid'u mdi. Nhflng d i l u kien tao r a sU lua chon bd't ldi dan de'n thfl tU uXi tien trong vide lUa chpn cdc ngudn vd'n tdi trd cua cdng ty cd thd dUdc p h a n a n h vdo chi phi giao dich co phie'u tuy thuoc vdo mflc dp bd't cdn xflng ve thdng tin gifla ede t h d n h vidn trong ban l a n h dao cdng ty vd cdc nhd d i u t u trdn TTCK. Vdi cdch lap lu^n ndy, tinh t h a n h khoan eua ed phid'u cdng cao hdm y sU Ifla chpn b a t ldi cdng theTp vd vi v$y cdng ty sfl dung vdn ehu sd hflu n h i l u hon.
Cho dd'n nay dd cd mdt sd nghidn cflu thflc nghidm v l mdi quan hd gifla TKCP vd cd'u trdc vdn cdng ty da dUdc cdng bd'. Trdn thi trudng chflng khodn My, Frieder vd Martell (2006) nghidn cflu mdi quan hd gifla TKCP va cau true vdn ciia cdc cdng trong giai doan 1988-1998.
Ke't qua nghien cflu cho thay thanh khoan cua cd phieu cang cao thi chi phi vo'n chu sd hflu cang tha'p vd vide phat hanh them cd phid'u di tdng vdn hap ddn hdn so vdi nd. Vi vay, cac tdc gia da kd't luan rang cdng ty ed TKCP cao thi ty le nd trong cd'u true vo'n thap. Trong mot nghidn cflu khde, Lipson vd Mortal (2009) xem xet mdi quan he gifla TKCP vd ctfu true vd'n cua cdc cdng ty d My trong giai doan 1986-2006.
Thd'ng nha't vdi kd't qua nghien cflu cua Frieder vd Martell (2006), nghidn cflu ndy cung di ddn kd't luan rang TKCP cd tfldng quan nghich vdi ty le nd eua cdng ty, nghia Id TKCP cdng cao thi cdng ty cd xu hfldng Uu tien sfl dung vd'n chii sd hflu thay vi sfl dung np trong tdi trd.
O cdc nudc dang phdt trien, Udomsirikul, Jumreornvong va Jiraporn (2011) nghidn cflu a n h hudng eua TKCP den quye't dinh cau true vd'n ciia cdc cdng ty niem yd't trdn Sd Giao dich chflng khodn Thai Lan trong giai doan 2002-2008. Thdng nhtft vdi cdc ke't qua Congnghe n Q ^ n H d n Q I
S6'117»Thang 12/2015 I
nghidn cu'u trUdc dd, nghien cflu nay cung xdc n h d n ve mdi tfldng quan nghich gifla TKCP va ddn b^y tdi chinh eiia cdc cdng ty. Md'i tfldng quan nghich gifla TKCP vd ctfu true vdn cdng ty con dflpe k h a n g dinh bdi Khediri va Daadaa (2011) khi tid'n h a n h nghien cflu t r e n cd sd sd lieu ede cong ty niem yet t r e n Sd Giao dich chflng khodn Tunisia; Arabzadeh vd Mghaminejad (2012) trong trfldng hdp cae cdng ty nidm yd't t r e n Sd Giao dich chflng khodn Tehran (Iran).
Tdm lai, dUa trdn ly thuyd't danh ddi va ly thuyet t r a t tU Uu tidn ed the ke't ludn rdng TKCP ed md'i tUdng quan nghich vdi cd'u true vdn cdng ty. Md'i quan hd ndy cdng dUdc cung cd' khi ke't qua cua mdt sd' nghidn cflu thuc nghiem d ca cdc nude p h a t tridn vd dang p h a t trien deu thd'ng n h d t xde n h d n rang TKCP cdng eao thi ty sd nd cua cdng ty cdng tha'p do viec phdt hdnh t h e m co phie'u dd huy ddng vdn trong trUdng hdp nay cd Ipi hdn Id vay nd.
So li^u svC d u n g va phifcfng p h a p n g h i e n citu Sd li&u svC dung
Nghien cflu ndy sil dung sd lieu tdi chinh cua 70 cdng ty phi tai chinh niem yd't tren HOSE trong giai doan 2009-2013 (sd lieu tai chinh nam 2014 eiia cac cdng ty niem yd't chua dupe cdng bd day du tai thdi dilm thUc hidn nghiem cflu). Cdc cdng ty trong mdu nghidn dupc chpn lua mdt each nglu nhien nhUng phai dam bao dieu kien Id dflde nidm ye't trdn HOSE trUde ngdy 01/01/2009. Cac chi tieu tdi chinh eua doanh nghidp nhU: ty le nd, tdng tdi san, Ipi nhu^n trflde thue' vd lai vay, tdi san ed' dinh hflu hinh, kha'u hao tdi san cd dinh dflpe thu thap tfl cdc bdo cdo tai chinh dd dflpe kiem todn (eac so lidu ndy dUdc cdng bd cdng khai tren website cua sd giao dich chflng khodn vd trdn website cua cac cdng ty chflng khodn).
Tudng tu, dfl lieu ve khd'i Ifldng cd phie'u giao dich, gia vd sd lUdng cd phid'u dang luu h a n h eiia cae cdng ty cung dupc thu thap tfl website cua HOSE. Gid cd phie'u dflde thu thap la gid
ddng cfla cua tflng phidn vd khd'i lUdng giao dich la tdng khd'i lupng khdp lenh trong phidn.
PhUcfng phdp nghidn ciJtu
Do dfl lieu dUdc sfl dung trong nghien cflu nay la dfl lidu bang (panel data) nen dd do lUdng a n h hudng ciia TKCP vd mdt sd nhan td khde dd'n cd'u true vdn cua cdc cdng ty nidm ydt, trUdc tidn nhdm tdc gia sfl dung ca md hinh hieu flng cd' dinh (fixed effects model - FEM) vd md hinh hidu flng n g l u nhidn (random effects model - REM). Sau dd, kiem dinh Hausman (Hausman test) se dUdc thuc hidn dd Ifla chon md hinh phu hdp nhd't. Mdt cdch cu thd, mo hinh fldc Ifldng ed dang:
LEVi t tto + ttjILLIQit -I- a2GR0Wi_t + ttaSIZEi t + a4PR0Fi t + OsTANGi t + aeNDTS^
+ ttyPRICEi t + ei t
Trong dd: LEV; t la ty le nd trdn tdng tai san eua cdng ty i d n a m t, ILLIQj ^ la TKCP ciia cdng ty i d n a m t.
Cung nhu nhieu nghidn cflu trudc (Lipson vd Mortal, 2009; Udomsirikul vd ctg, 2011;
Arabzadeh va Maghaminejad, 2012), trong nghidn cflu ndy TKCP dUdc do lUdng theo phUdng phdp do Amihud (2002) d l xutft. Theo phuong phdp ndy, TKCP dflde t i n h bang miJc phan flng cua gid cd phid'u khi khdi Ifldng giao dich thay ddi. Mdt cdch cu thd, TKCP dflde tinh bang cdng thflc:
Trong do: Rjti la lai nhu$n theo ng4y (dong) cua cS phieu i or n a m t, Vj^j la gia tri giao dicli hang ngay (d6ng) cua eg phieu i d nSm t v& Djt la so ngay giao dich cua c6 phig'u i d nam t.
Cdc bien kiem soat trong m6 hinh - TSng tracing (GROW): tSng trudng cua c6ng ty diroc do ludng b i n g ty le biS'n dOng ciia
I Congnghe n g a f i H a H g
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gia tri tdng tdi san trong cdng ty (GROWjt = nhuan trudc thue' vd ldi vay (KBIT) tren tdng (Tong tdi sanj J - Tdng tdi san^ ^-i)/ Tdng tai tai san. Theo ly thuyd't t r a t tfl phan hang sarij^t-i)- Jensen (1986) cho rang chi phi dai (Myers va Majluf, 1984), cdc nha quan ly trong dien ciia ddng t i i n t u do se giam ne'u cdng ty cdng ty thfldng Uu tien sfl dung ldi nhuan gifl cd Cd hdi tdng trudng cao va vi vay cdng ty se lai trudc, sau dd mdi de'n cae ngudn vd'n tfl ben it phu thudc vdo nhflng quy dinh khac khe khi ngodi de tai trd cho cdc dU an. Vi vdy, eac cdng SU dung nd. Hon nfla, cd hdi tdng trUdng cao ty cd ty sutft sinh ldi cao se it sfl dung nd hdn, se la dpng lue de cdng ty d i u tfl vao nhflng dfl thay vao dd ho se t r a n h thu sfl dung ngudn an rui ro hcfn. Diiu ndy se lam gia tang chi phi ldi nhuan gifl lai dd dau tfl. Vdi cd sd nhfl vay vdn cua no. Ke't qua la cac cdng ty cd td'c dp nhdm tdc gia ky vpng r a n g bid'n ldi nhudn cd tdng trfldng cao cd xu hfldng sfl dung ngudn vd'n tfldng quan nghich vdi ty sd nd ciia cdng ty.
ben trong (ldi n h u a n gifl lai) hoac phdt h d n h
thdm cd phid'u hon la sfl dung no. Vi v^y, tdng - Tai san cd dinh hflu hinh (TANG): trong trfldng cua cdng ty dflde ky vpng cd md'i tUdng nghidn cflu nay ty Id gia tri cdn lai cua tdi quan nghich vdi ty le np ciia cdng ty. san c6 dinh hflu hinh t r e n tdng tai san dUdc sfl dung nhfl Id chi tieu dai dien eho tai san - Quy md cdng t y (SIZE): trong nghidn cflu ndy ed' dinh hflu hinh cua cdng ty. Ly thuye't ngfldi bien quy md cdng ty dUde xac dinh bang logarit dai dien cho rang nhflng cdng ty cd ty Id nd cua tong tdi san. Vide sfl dung logarit eua tong cao thfldng ed xu hfldng chuyen tai san cua tdi san thay vi tong tai san la dd t r d n h hidn cdng ty tfl cdc chu nd sang cdc chu sd hflu.
tfldng phfldng sai sai sd thay ddi trong md hinh hoi quy do gia tri tdng tdi san cua cdc cdng ty cd th^ ed sfl khde bidt ra't ldn. Theo ly thuyet ddnh ddi, quy md cdng ty cd tUdng quan thudn vdi ddn btfy t a i chinh bdi vi cac cdng ty cd quy md cdng ldn thfldng cd rui ro pha san cang tha'p ndn chi phi vo'n vay ciia cac cdng ty ed quy ldn thfldng tha'p hdn cdc cdng ty ed quy mo nhd. Ngodi ra, eac cdng ty ldn cd chi phi dai
Vi vdy, ede chu nd phai cd nhflng cdch thflc n h a m dam bao kha nang thu np cho minh.
Mdt trong nhflng each thflc phd bidn ma chu np hay sfl dung dd la ydu clu cdng ty phai cd tdi san dam bao cho cdc cdc khoan nd vay vd thdng thudng tai san dam bao Id eac tdi san cd' dinh hflu hinh. Hdn nfla, ne'u ty le gia tri cdn lai cua tai san cd' dinh hflu hinh tren tdng tdi san tha'p thi chi phi vd'n eho cdc khoan vay se dien cua nd vay (agency costs of debt) tha'p, chi tdng do rui ro cho cac chu np gia tang. Vi vdy, phi kidm sodt thtfp, d§ ddng tid'p can tin dung
hdn so vdi cdc cdng ty cd quy md nhd do thdng tin thudng minh bach hdn. Vdi nhflng ly do nhu vdy, quy md cdng ty dUde ky vpng cd tUdng quan thuan vdi ty Id nd cua cdng ty.
bid'n tai san ed dinh hflu hinh dflde ky vpng eo md'i tuong quan thuan vdi ty le nd cua cdng ty.
- La chdn thue' phi np (NDTS): bid'n so ndy dupe tinh bdng ty sd' gifla khau hao tdi san ed dinh va gia tri tdng tdi san. Ly thuye't danh Lpi nhuan (PROF): bid'n ldi nhuan trong doi cho rang la chdn thud phi np cdng cao thi nghidn cflu n a y dflde do Ifldng bang ty sd lpi ldi leh tfl la chan thue cua np cang tha'p. Vi B a n g 1: Tom t a t c a c bie'n dpc l^P dxtde svC d u n g trong mo hinh h o i quy Ten bitfn
ILLIQ GROW SIZE PROF TANG N D T S PRICE
D i e n g i ^ i H6 s6' TKCP
T a n e trirdng gia tri tSng t a i san Loearit cua gi^ t r i tong t a i san
T.rti n h u a n triJdc t h u ^ va lai vay t r e n tong t a i san
diii t r i c6n lai ciia t a i s a n co dinh hUu h i n h t r e n tong tai san Khau hao t i i san cd dinh trgn giA tri tong tai san Loearit cua gia binh quan trong n a m cua co phig'u
Ky v o n g +
-
+
-
Congnghe H g a i l H a H g | SefUT'Thang 12/2015 I
vdy, cdc cdng ty ed ty Id khd'u hao tdi san ed dinh trdn gid tri tdng t a i san cdng cao dUdc ky vpng cd ty 1# nfl cdng thtfp.
- Gid cd phie'u (PRICE): trong md hinh nghien cflu, gid cd phie'u dUdc do lUdng bang logarit tu nhidn cua gia binh quan trong n a m ciia ed phid'u. Ly thuydt thdi diem thi trUdng (market timing theory) eho rdng cdng ty ed xu hUdng sfl dung vdn chii sd hflu hdn la sfl dung nd khi gid cd phie'u trdn thi trfldng tang. Vi v§y, gid cd phidu dflde kj' vpng cd tfldng quan nghich vdi ty Id nd cua cdng ty.
K e t qua n g h i e n ctfu
Thanh khodn cd phieu vd tinh hinh tdi chinh cua cdc cong ty trong mdu nghien ciiu
Thanh khodn c6 phiiu
- Gid tri giao dich eua cdc cd phie'u: mdt trong nhflng ehi tidu do Ifldng thanh khoan cua cd phid'u Id gid tri giao dieh. Kd't qua phan tieh thd'ng ke cho thd'y gid tri giao dich binh quan/ngdy cua cdc ed phidu trong giai doan 2009-2013 la 6,36
ty dong. Gid tri giao dich binh qudn/ngdy eiia ede cd phieu ed xu hfldng gidm trong giai doan 2009-2011 va t a n g d i n trd lai trong giai doain 2011-2013. Kdt qud nghidn cflu ndy hodn todn^
phu hdp vdi xu hfldng chung eua thi trfldng chflng khoan Vi^t Nam trong giai doan ndy.
He sd' t h a n h khoan ciia cd phid'u: trong nghidn cflu ndy he sd t h a n h khoan cua c6 phie'u dflde t i n h b l n g cdng thflc do Amihud (2002) de xutft. He sd t h a n h khoan cua ede cd phidu trong m l u nghidn cflu dUdc trinh bdy tdm t i t d Bang 3.
Ket qua phdn tich thd'ng ke cho thd'y h^ sd t h a n h khoan trung binh cua cdc cd phieu trong giai doan 2009-2013 Id 0,0018. Hd sd t h a n h khoan cd xu hUdng tdng d i n qua cdc n a m trong sudt giai doan 2010-2013. Dde bi^t Id hd sd t h a n h khodn ciia ede cd phidu ed sti gia t a n g ddt bie'n d ndm 2013. Su gia tdng ndy la he qua ciia mdt sd chinh sdch cua cd quan quan ly thi trUdng n h d m gia t a n g tinh thanh khoan cua cd nhfl d i l u chinh bidn dp giao dong tfl 5% ldn mflc 7% (tfl ngdy 15/1/2013) vd keo dai thdi gian giao dich thdm 45 phut (tfl ngdy 22/7/2013).
B & n g 2 : N a m 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2009-2013
Gia t r i g i a o d i c h b l n h q u a n / n g a y c u a So q u a n s a t
70 70 70 70 70 70
N h o n h a t 0,170 0,080 0,060 0,030 0,030 0,030
T r u n g b i n h 12,950
7,200 2,570 3,130 6,050 6,360 NguSn: Xti l^ tii thdng tin giao dich tr^n HOSE ciia cdc cong ty (2009
B a n g 3 : H $ s o t h a n h k h o a n c u a c a c c£
N a m 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2009-2013
So q u a n s a t 70 70 70 70 70 70
N h o nhtft 0,060 0,020 0,020 0,030 0,010 0,010
T r u n g b i n h 52,140 13,660 59,860 97,230 8.804,350 1.813,410 Ghi chli: He s6 thanh khodn bdng gid tn thuc te nhdn vdi 10*' NguSn: Tinh todn ta thSng tin giao dich trSn HOSE cua cdc cdng ty (
c a c CO p h i e ' u ( 2 0 0 9 - 2 0 1 3 ) Don vi tinh; ty d6ng Ldrn nha't
68,760 39,160 17,830 19,870 38,310 68,760 -2013)
p h i d ' u ( 2 0 0 9 L d n nha't
2.178,070 172,690 489,180 804,530 610.003,290 610.003,290 2009-2013)
D $ I^ch chu^u 16,420
8,660 3,970 4,350 9,100 10,230 - 2 0 1 3 )
DO l@ch chu^n 292,410
33,850 102.120 158,070 72.903,230 32.651,380
m
CongnglK H g a i l H a H Q S6'117«Thang 12/2015Cdu trdc vdn
Trong n g h i e n cflu ndy cau trflc vdn dflde do Ifldng b l n g ty 1$ n(? t r d n tdng tdi s i n cua cdng ty. Kdt qud t h ^ n g ke dUdc t r i n h bdy d B a n g 4 cho thtfy ty 1^ nd cua cdc cdng ty t r o n g giai doan nghidn cflu tUdng ddi dn dinh d mflc thtfp va cd xu hUdng gidm tfl ndm 2011. Cu thd Id ty 1^ np binh qudn ciia cdc cdng ty giao ddng trong k h o i n g tfl 42,5% de'n 44,4% vd t^ 1§ nd binh qudn trong ca giai doan nghidn cflu Id 43,19%.
T^ li tdng trudng tdng tdi sdn
Sfl tfing trudng tdng tdi s i n thd hi§n cd hdi p h d t t r i e n cua cdng ty. Ty 1§ tdng trUdng gid tri tong tdi san cua ede cdng ty trong m l u nghidn cflu qua ede n a m dUde trinh bdy d B I n g 5.
Mdc du cd sU khde bi#t khd ldn v l ty 1$ tfing trudng tdng tdi san gifla cdc cdng ty trong mau nghidn cflu (the hi#n thdng qua gid tri ldn nhtft, nhd nhtft vd dd l?ch chuin), ty 1$ tdng trfldng tdng tdi sdn binh quan cua cdc cdng ty ludn dfldng trong sudt giai doan nghidn cflu vdi t^ 1^ t d n g trfldng binh qudn Id 19,77%/
ndm. Tuy nhidn, ty 1? tfing trfldng binh qudn
h a n g ndm cd xu hfldng g i l m trong giai doan 2009-2012 va chi b a t d i u tdng trd lai vdo nfim 2013. Dilu ndy c6 thd dflde gidi thfch Id do co hOi phdt tridn cfla cdng ty phu thuOc rtft ldn vdo cdc yeu td kinh te vi md trong khi nhflng yd'u td ndy d Vi$t Nam trong giai doan 2009- 2013 lai khdng dupc k h i quan.
Tdng tdi sdn
Trong nghidn cflu nay, gid tri tdng tdi san dflde sfl dung nhfl Id mdt chi tidu do Ifldng quy md ciia cdng ty. Ke't qua phdn tich thd'ng kd cho thtfy gid tri tdng tdi san cua cdc cdng ty trong mau nghidn cflu cd sU khde bidt rtft ldn, cdng ty cd tdng gid tri tdi s i n ldn nhtft la 75.773 ty ddng trong khi cdng ty cd gid tri tdng tdi sdn nhd nhat Id 152 ty ddng. Gid tri tdng tdi san binh qudn ciia cdc cdng ty cd xu hudng tdng d i n qua cdc nfim trong sudt giai doan nghidn cflu, tfl 2.931 ty ddng d nam 2009 ldn 6.347 ty ddng d ndm 2013. Ddy Id mdt tin hieu tdt cho thi trfldng chflng khodn Vi^t Nam.
Hiiu qud hoat ddng kinh doanh
Mdt trong nhflng chi tieu phan I n h hieu qua hoat dpng kinh doanh cua cdc cdng ty la ty 1$
ldi nhu^n trudc thue vd lai vay trdn tdng tdi
N a m 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2009-2013
B & n g 4: T Sd' q u a n s a t
70 70 70 70 70 70
^ 1$ n ^ (%) e d a c a c c o n g t y ( 2 0 0 9 - 2 0 1 3 ) N h 6 nhtft
9,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 3,000
T r u n g b l n h 42,500 42,410 44,400 43,770 42,840 43,190
Ldrn nhtft 84,000 85,000 86,000 86,000 79,000 86,000
DO lOch chutfn 18,810 18,230 18,790 19,060 18,190 18,630 Ngudn: Xti l^ tit bdo cdo tdi chinh eda cdc cdng ty (2009-2013)
B a n g 5; T ^ 10 t f t n g t r t f d n g t g n g thi s&n (%) Clla cttc c 6 n g t y ( 2 0 0 9 - 2 0 1 3 )
»T. I Qft . . . . o n a&* N K A nlid'i; T w i n e r l^^TiVi I .An n l . 6 ' * TIA 1&..1. r.\...A So q u a n stft N h 6 nhtft T r u n g b i n h BQ IQch chutfn
-17,280 33,980 47,070
2012 125,120
2013 -56,330
2009 - 2013 -65,960
58,130 Sgu6n: xa ti tu bdo cdo tdi chinh eda cdc cdng ty (2009-2013)
345,420
cengngh« Hgaii Hang P M
S6'117»Th4ng 12/2015 l a i
B d n g 6: G i a t r i t o n g t a i s a n c i i a c a c c o n g t y ( 2 0 0 9 - 2 0 1 3 ) Dan vi tinh: ty dong N a m
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2009 - 2013
Sd' q u a n s a t 70 70 70 70 70 70
N h o nhtft 152 170 258 271 273 152
T r u n g b i n h 2.931 3.960 4.872 5.526 6.347 4.727
L d n nhtft 14.313 26.147 35.513 55.825 75.773 75.773
DO 10 c h chutfn 3.446 5.326 7.175 9.246 11.506
7.914 Nguon: Xd Ij til bdo cdo tdi chinh ciia cdc cong ty (2009-2013)
B a n g 7: T y 10 E B I T / t o n g t i i s a n (%) c i i a c a c c d n g t y ( 2 0 0 9 - 2 0 1 3 ) N a m
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2009-2013
S o q u a n s a t 70 70 70 70 70 70
N h o nhtft -7,980
0,050 -6,740 -4,270 -12,060 -12,050
T r u n g b i n h 13,380 12,280 9,540 8,480 8,300 10,400
L d n nhtft 60,890 39,460 44,810 41,290 38,220 60,890
DO lOch chutfn 11,630
9,450 11,230
9,430 9,110 10,300 c cdng ty (2009-2013)
B a n g 8 N a m 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2009 - 2013
G i a t r i t a i s a n c o d i n h hu^u h i n h c u a c a c c d n g t y ( 2 0 0 9 - 2 0 1 3 ) Don vi tinh: ty d6ng So' q u a n s a t
70 70 70 70 70 70
N h o nha't 8 8 12 11 10 8
T r u n g b i n h 653 847 1.001 1.134 1.270 981
L d n nhtft 9.234 9.362 13.924 13.055 12.314 13.924
DO lOch chuan 1.325 1.647 2.041 2.251 2.464 1.986 NguSn: xa ly tU bdo cdo tdi chinh c c cdng ty (2009-2013)
san (EBIT). Ke't qua phan tich thdng kd cho thay ty le EBIT/tdng tdi san eua cac cdng ty trong mau nghien cflu lidn tuc giam trong sud't giai do^n 2009-2013. Cu thd Id, ty le EBIT/tdng tdi san da giam tfl 13,38% d ndm 2009 xud'ng eon 8,30% d ndm 2013. Chi tidt ve ty 1§ EBIT/
tdng tdi san ciia cae cdng ty trong mau nghien cflu dflde trinh bdy tdm t a t d Bang 7.
Tdi sdn cd dinh hdu hinh
Tdi san cd' dinh hflu hinh ngodi viec thd hidn ndng lflc san xutft kinh doanh nd cdn la mdt yd'u td' quan trpng a n h hUdng dd'n khd nang vay nd cua cdng ty. Cung nhu cac ehi tidu tai chinh da dUdc trinh bay d trdn, gia tri tdi san cd dinh hflu hinh ciia cdc cdng ty trong mau nghidn cflu cung cd sfl phan hda r a t ldn (gid
E c6ngngh# n g a t i H a n g
Stfll7»Thdns 12/2015
tri nhd n h a t la 8 ty ddng trong khi gia tri ldn n h a t Id 13.924 ty ddng). Ngodi ra, ket qua nghidn cflu dUdc t r i n h bay d Bang 8 cdn cho thay gid tri tai san hflu hinh cua cdc cdng ty da tdng lidn tuc qua cfic n a m trong sud't giai doan 2009-2013. Day la xu hfldng t a t y^u b5i le ap lue canh t r a n h ngay cdng t a n g khi Vi^t Nam ngdy cang md cfla thi trUdng trong nfldc da budc cdc cdng ty phai ludn doi mdi may mdc thie't bi vd cdng nghd.
Be d i m bao t i n h hop 1^ trong so sdnh giiJa cdc cdng ty vdi nhau va de phue vu eho m6 hinh nghien cflu dinh Ifldng, chi tidu gid tri cdn lai cua tdi san cd dinh hflu hinh trdn tdng tdi san eua ede cdng ty da dfloc tinh todn. Chi tidt ve chi tidu ndy eua cdc cdng ty trong giai doan 2009-2013 dflde trinh bdy d Bang 9.
^ g ; ^ j = G i a t r i t a i s a n cd' d i n h h f l u h l n h / t o n g t a i s a n (%) c u a c a c c d n g t y (2009-2013) N a i ' ^ Sd' q u a n s a t N h o nha't T r u n g b i n h Lotn nha't DO IQch c h u a n
70 22,290 22,140
70 21,990
70 20,550 87,600
70 70 70
NguSn: xa ly tic bdo cao tdi chinh % cdc cdng ty (2009-2013) B a n g 10: T ^ 10 k h a u h a o t a i s a n cd' d i n h / t o n p t a i s a n
N a m 2009 2010 2 0 1 1 2012 2013 2009 - 2013
SO q u a n s a t 7 0 7 0 7 0 7 0 7 0 7 0
Nhd nhtft 0,130 0,170 0,150 0,520 0,550 0,130
T r u n g b i n h 17,090 15,360 14,600 15,000 15,080 16,430
%) c u a c a c c d n g t y (2009-2013) Ldn nha't
87,800 87,390 93,450 94,110 97,720 97,720
DO lOch chutfn 22,650 22,690 22,970 24,460 21,760 22,810 c cdng ty (2009-2013)
Ty IS khau hao tdi sdn cd dinh trin tdng tdi sdn
Khd'u hao t a i san cd' dinh dflde xem Id Id chan thud' phi nd cua cdng ty (non-debt tax shield).
Cdc cdng ty cd thd t a n dung ldi leh tfl thud' thu n h d p doanh nghidp t h d n g qua viec sfl dung khtfu hao tdi san cd' dinh thay cho vide sfl dung no. Dd do Ifldng a n h hfldng ciia la chan thud' phi nd dd'n cd'u true vdn ciia cdng ty, nghidn cflu ndy da sfl dung chi tidu ty le khau hao tdi s a n cd' dinh trdn tong tai san. Chi tie't v l chi tidu ndy cua cac cdng ty trong giai doan nghidn cflu dflde t r i n h bdy d Bang 10.
Anh hiidng cua thanh khodn cd phid'u den cau trdc vdn cua cdc cong ty niem yet tren HOSE
Nhfl da t r i n h bay d p h i n phfldng phap nghien cflu, nghien cflu n a y trudc tidn sfl dung ea hai md h i n h hidu flng cd dinh (FEM) va hidu flng ngau nhidn (REM) dd do lUdng a n h hudng eua TKCP va mgt sd bien kidm sodt ddn ca'u true vdn eua cdng ty. Sau do, de xdc dinh xem md h i n h nao phii hdp hdn, nhdm nghidn cflu tidp tuc sfl dung kidm dinh Hausman (Hausman test). Ke't qua Udc lUdng tfl cdc md hinh nay dflde t r i n h bdy tdm t a t d Bang 11.
B a n g 1 1 : Kfe't q u a p h a n t i c h h d i q n y t h e o F E M v a R E M T e n bien
H a n g s6' ILLIQ GROW SIZE PROF TANG NDTS PRICE So' quan sat R^ dieu chinh Gia tri tho'nK ke F Kiem dinh Hausman
MS h i n h hieu iJng c6 dinh (FEM)
-1,630 (-2,760)***
-0,028 (-1,870)*
-0,031 (-0,500)
0,304 (3,370)***
-0,083 (-2,290)**
0,317 (3,180)***
-0,255 (-2,160)**
-0,041 (-0,520)
3 5 0 0,430 4,240***
Mo h i n h hieu ling ngSu n h i e n
(REM) 0,040 (0,170) -0,038 (-2,980)***
-0,003 (-0,060)
0,034 (0,970) -0,005 (-0,140)
0,506 (6,270)***
-0,277 (-3,780)***
-0,089 (-1,460)
3 5 0 0,390 20,770***
Chi2(7) = 39,630***
Ghi chil:
1%, 5% V, * c6y nghla thdng k% tuong iZng d n
Ket qua kiem dinh Hausman (Bang 11) cho tha'y md hinh hidu flng cd dinh Id phu hdp hdn
cdngn^ Hgaii Hang wm
Sd'll7«Thang 12/2015 E s l
md hinh hidu flng n g l u n h i e n (gid tri thdng ke Chi2(7) la 39,63 ndn g i i thuydt vd sU phu hdp hdn eua REM so vdi FEM bi bdc bd d mflc ^ nghia thd'ng kd 1%). Vi v^y, trong p h i n trinh bdy tidp theo nhdm tdc gid sfl dung kd't qui tfl md hinh hi^u flng cd dinh dd phdn tich a n h hudng cua TKCP vd mOt sd' bidn kiem sodt ddn clu trflc vdn cua cdc cdng ty.
Kdt qua fldc lflong tfl md hinh hi^u flng cd' dinh cho t h l y TKCP cd md'i tfldng quan nghich vdi ty 1? nd cua cdng ty. D i l u n a y cd nghia cdc cdng ty cd TKCP cdng cao thi ty 1# nd cua cdng ty cdng t h i p vd ngfldc lai. Cu thd Id trong d i l u ki§n cdc yd'u td khde khdng ddi khi h^ sd' t h a n h k h o l n tdng 1% thi ty Id nd cua cdng ty giam 0,03%.
Vl m d t thd'ng ke, mdi quan h# ndy cd y nghla d mflc 10%. Kd't q u i nghidn cflu ndy h o a n toan phu hdp vdi ede nghidn cflu cua Frieder vd Martell (2006), Lipson vd Mortal (2010), Udomsirikul vd ctg (2011), Khediri vd Daadaa (2011), Arabzadeh vd Mghaminejad (2012). Cung nhfl cdc nghien cflu trflde, mdi quan h§ gifla TKCP vd ty 1§ nd cua cdc cdng ty ed thd dflde giai thich Id do khi TKCP gia tfing se lam cho vd'n chu sd hflu hd'p d a n hdn so vdi nd, d i n dd'n ty t r o n g nd trong clu true vd'n eua cdng ty gidm.
C a c bid'n k i e m s o a t
Quy md cong ty (SIZE): de t r d n h hi^n tUdng phfldng sai sai sd' thay ddi ciia p h i n dfl trong md hinh fldc Ifldng, bid^n quy md cdng ty trong nghidn cflu ndy dflde do Ifldng b l n g logarit ciia tdng tdi san. Kdt qud phdn tich hdi quy cho thd'y quy md cd tfldng quan ty 1? thudn vdi ty 1? no cua cdc cdng ty. Ndi mOt cdch khde, cdc cdng ty ed quy md cdng ldn thi ty 1§ nd cdng cao vd ngUde lai. Kd't qua nghidn cflu dflcfc trinh bdy d B I n g 11 cho tha'y khi gid tri tdng tdi san tfing 1% thi ty 1§ nd cua cdng ty tfing 0,304% vdi mflc ^ nghia thd'ng ke 1%. Kdt qua nay phu hdp vdi \f thuyd't ddnh ddi vd cdc nghien cflu thflc nghi$m dflde thflc h i ^ n b d i Khediri vd Daadaa (2011), Nguyen vd
Neelakantan (2006), TrUdng Ddng Ldc vd V6 K i l u Trang (2008).
Lffi nhu$n (PROF): dung nhu k^ vpng vd*
phu h^p vdi kd't q u i cua cdc nghidn cflu trade ddy (Trfldng Ddng LOc vd Vo Kilu Trang, 2008; Khediri vd Daadaa, 2011; Arabzadeh vd Mghaminejad, 2012; Ld Dat Chl, 2013), kdt q u i fldc Ifldng td md h i n h hi^u flng cd dinh cho thd'y t^ sud't ldi n h u ^ n (dflde do Ifldng blng ty sd EBIT/tdng tdi san) cd mdi tfldng quan nghich vdi t^ 1^ n^ cua cdc cdng ty. Cu thd Id, trong d i l u ki§n cdc ye'u td khde khdng ddi khi EBIT/tdng tdi san tdng 1% thi ty 1§ ncf ciia cdng ty giam 0,083%. Ve mfit thdng kd, mdi quan h§ ndy cd y nghia d mflc 5%. Kdt qui nghidn cflu ndy cd thd g i l i thich trdn cd sd 1^
thuyd't t r $ t tfl p h d n hang, cdc cdng ty cd t^
s u i t sinh ldi cao se flu tidn sfl dung ngudn loi nhu^n gifl lai dd d i u tU trflde khi sfl dung ntf.
r d i sdn cd' dinh hUu hinh (TANG): kdt q u i Udc lUdng tfl md h i n h hi#u flng cd' dinh cho thl^y ty 1§ gia tri cdn lai ciia tdi san ed dinh hflu hinh t r d n t o n g t a i s i n ed mdi tfldng quan thuyin vdi ty 1^ nd cua cdng ty.
Cu thd Id khi t^ 1$ gid t r i cdn lai eua tdi sin cd' dinh hflu hinh t r d n tdng tdi s i n tfing 1%
t h i ty 1# nd cua cong ty se tdng 0,32%. Kdt qud nghidn cflu ndy phu hdp vdi k^ vong ciia nhdm nghidn cflu khi eho r i n g tdi sin ed dinh hflu hinh thfldng dflde cdc cdng ty sfl dung nhfl Id tdi s a n d i m bao khi vay nd nen cdc cdng ty cd gid t r i t a i san cd' dinh hflu h i n h cdng ldn thi k h a n d n g sfl dung nd trong tdi trd cdng cao.
Ld chdn thui' phi repr (NDTS): thd'ng n h l t vdi cdc kd't q u i nghien cflu cfla DeAngelo vl Musulis (1980), Khediri vd Daadaa (2011), Arabzadeh vd Mghaminejad (2012), nghidn cflu ndy cung tim thd'y mdi tfldng quan nghich gifla Id c h i n thud* phi no (do Ifldng b l n g ty 1§
khd'u hao tdi san cd dinh trdn tdng tdi sin) vd ty 1? nd ciia cdc cdng ty d mflc ^ nghia thdng kd 5%. Kd't qua nghidn cflu ndy cd th^
dflde g i l i thich Id do khi Id c h i n thul* phi nt?
m
Cdngngh^ H g a i l H d H g Stfll7«Thdng 12/2015cdng cao t h i ldi ich tfl Id c h i n t h u e cua nd n h d n td a n h hfldng dd'n cd'u true vdn cdng ty c^ng giam, vi vdy cdc cdng ty cd xu hfldng it t h d n g qua vi^c k i l m dinh mdi quan h0 gifla sfl dung n o t r o n g t a i trcf. TKCP vd c l u trflc vd'n cua cdc cdng ty nidm yd't t r d n HOSE. Sfl dung md h i n h hi§u flng cd Ngodi cdc n h d n t d d t r d n , k d t q u i n g h i e n dinh t r e n cd sd sd li#u tdi chinh cua 70 cdng ty cflu (Bang 11) cdn cho thd'y bie'n tfing trfldng cd p h i n trong giai doan 2009-2013, nghidn cflu (GROW) vd gid cd phi^u (PRICE) d I u cd mdi dd tim t h l y mdi tUdng quan nghich gifla TKCP tfldng quan nghich vdi ty 1$ nd cua cdng ty. vd ty 1? nd eua cdc cdng ty. K^t q u i nghidn Tuy n h i d n , cdc mdi quan h§ ndy lai k h d n g ed cflu n a y hodn todn phfl hdp vdi cdc 1^ thuyd't y n g h i a v l m^lt t h d n g kd. Trong md h i n h hdi tdi chinh ed lidn quan cflng nhfl kd't q u i cua quy d t r d n , gid t r i thd'ng kd F cua md h i n h cdc nghidn cflu thflc nghidm dd dflde cdng bd.
Id 4,24; cho t h i ' y md h i n h hdi quy md n h d m Ngodi ra, k^t q u i ciia nghidn cflu cdn cho thd^y n g h i d n cflu sfl dung cd dd t i n c^y cao. quy md vd ty 1§ gia tri cdn lai eua tdi s a n cd' dinh hflu h i n h t r d n tdng tdi s i n cd md'i tfldng K§'t l u § n quan t h u a n vdi ty 1 | nd cua cdng ty. Cudi cung, cdc b l n g chflng thflc nghidm thu t h ^ p dflde C l u trflc vdn cdng ty Id mdt v a n d l ed ^ nghia tfl nghidn cflu ndy cdn giflp nhdm tdc gia kd't r l t quan t r p n g trong t d i chinh doanh nghidp lu§n r i n g ty s u i t lpi nhu^n vd Id c h i n thud*
ca v l mfit hoc t h u d t vd thflc t i l n . Nghidn cflu phi nd cd mdi tfldng quan nghich vdi ty Id nd ndy bd sung b l n g chflng thue nghidm v l cdc ciia cdc cdng ty nidm yet t r d n HOSE"
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