"IVGHIEN ctfu & TRAO DOI
TAC DONG CUA HE THONG THUE THU NHAP
mf m.' ^
DEN CAU TRUC VON CAC CONG TY CO PHAN VIET NAM
PGS.TS. PHAN THI BICH NGUYET*
Hogch dinh cdu trdc vdn Id mgt trong cdc quyet dinh tdi chinh quan trgng vd cung Id thdch thdc khdng nho do'i vdi cdc nhd qudn tri cdng ty. Trong so' cdc nhdn td tdc dgng din cd'u trdc vd'n, thui thu nhdp (TN) bao gom thue thu nhap doanh nghiep (TNDN) vd thue thu nh$p cd nhdn (TNCN) - dd dddc cdc ly thuyet tdi chinh vd nghien cdu thiic nghidm tren the gidi xav nhgn Id cd tdc dgng ddng ke din sd Ida chgn nguon tdi trp cua cdc cdng ty. Bdi viit ndy xem xet tdc dgng cua thue TN den cdu true vd'n trong boi cdnh cy, thi cua nen kinh te VN. De kiem dinh nhiing nhdn to' dnh hddng vd tdc dgng cda thue TN den vi$c xdy difng cdu trUc vdn tgi VN, bdi viit sd dung kit hgp hcd phiidng phdp: phdn tich so sdnh kit hgp vdi phdctng phdp hoi quy. Teu; gid dd thdc hi$n khdo sdt y kien td doanh nghiep (DN) vd cd quan thue, dong thdi phdn tich cdu trUc vd'n thUc te cua 219 cdng ty niem yit trin Sd Giao dich Chdng khodn TP.HCM (HOSE) trong giai dogn td ndm 2005 den thdng 612010. Kit qud nghien cdu cho thdy thui TNCN thdc sd cd dnh hddng den ty le nd cua cdc cdng ty VN, theo md'i tiidng quan ty li nghich, thui TNDN thi hifn tddng quan ty le thuan vdi cd ty le nd ddi hgn vd ty If ting nd (ndm 2008).
LNMidSu
Hoaeh dinh cd'u trdc vd'n la mdt trong cdc quyd't dinh quan trpng ciia tdi chinh DN. Cdc nhd qudn 1^ thudng quan t d m lUa chpn t^ trpng htfp ly cho m i i nguin tdi tro d l h i n h t h d n h cd'u tnic vd'n phii hop cho edng ty n h d m hudng dd'n muc tidu td'i da hda gid tri DN. Cde nghidn cffu t i l n d l da cho thd'y quyd't dinh lUa chpn ca'u true vd'n khdng phai chi Id san p h i m cua cdc n h d n to ddc trUng ridng ciia edng ty md edn la kd't qud cua sU d i l u hdnh cua chinh phu, khung ludt phdp, t i n h h i n h kinh td' Vl md tai qud'c gia md edng ty dd dang boat dpng. Vi thd', vide xem xdt tdc ddng cua cdc n h a n t l d i n su hinh t h d n h cau true vd'n Id hd't sffc e i n thid't, ddc biet trong hd'i cdnh cua VN - khi tinh chuydn nghifp trong qudn t r i tdi ehinh cua cdc cdng ty chUa eao.
Trong sd cdc nhdn td tdc ddng dd'n cd'u true vd'n cua DN, nhdn t d chinh sdch thud' TN bao g i m t h u i TNDN vd thue TNCN - da dUde cdc 1^ thuyd't tdi chinh vd n h i l u nghidn cffu thUe nghifm t r e n t h i gidi xdc nhdn Id cd tdc ddng ddng k l d i n sU
lUa ehpn ede nguon tdi trpf ciia DN. Ngodi ra, xem xet chinh sdch vi md cua cdc qud'c gia trdn t h i gidi cung cd t h i nhdn thd'y rang chinh sdch thud' TN ludn giff mdt vai trd quan trpng trong vide dilu tid't n i n k i n h td'. Tuy nhidn, d VN trong nhffng n a m vUa qua, dUdng n h u vai trd eua cMnh sdch thud' dd'i vdi vide hoaeh dinh cd'u trffc vd'n edn hi xem nhe. Vide hoach dinh cd'u true vd'n cua ede cdng ty VN mang t i n h tU phdt cao, thie'u chuydn nghiep, it cdn nhac dd'n cdc nhdn td dnh hudng.
Chinh sdch thud' TN ciia VN dUtfc xdy dUng mdt cdch dpc lap, chua tao dUtfc sU gan kd't vdi ddng lUe phdt t r i l n eua ede DN.
Xud't phdt tu thuc t r a n g trdn, tdc gid tid'n hdnh khao sdt vd k i l m dinh vdi k^ vpng xdc dinh mUc dp tdc ddng cu t h i ciia n h a n td' cMnh sdch thud' TN dd'n vide Mnh t h d n h cd'u trffc vd'n ciia cde edng ty c l p h i n trong bdi canh VN. Tff dd, tim ra nguyen nhdn, nhffng h a n ehd' cdn ton tai d l d l xud't giai phdp n h ^ m hodn thidn vide hoach dinh cd'u true vd'n cho cde edng ty, cung nhU dUa ra nhffng khuyd'n nghi n h d m hodn t h i f n he chinh sdch thud' eua VN.
TrUdng D^i hgc Kinh te TP.HCM
Phdt trien kinh te - Thang Nam nam 2011
NGHIEN CLTU & TRAO 0 O I
2. Cic nghiin cihi v l t i c d^ng cda thulTTN dlTn cifu trdc voTn
2.1 Quan diem ly thuyet ve tdc dgng cua thueTN
Quan d i l m ciia M&M v l ldi the' tff thue eiia vide vay ntf: Miller (1977) da cho thay vide sff dung ntf da dem lai t h d m ltfi ieh tff thud', nhtfng b a n t h a n vide sff dung ntf khdng a n h hffdng de'n boat dpng hay gid tri cua cdng ty, cung nhU khdng tao r a sU khuyd'n khich vay np.
Cac quan d i l m khdc v l ltfi the tff t h u i cua vide vay ntf: Sau M&M, n h i l u n h a k i n h td' hpe da dffa ra cdc ludn d i l m ung hp vd b l sung eho md h i n h trdn cua M&M. Cac n h a n dinh ctf b a n ma nhffng nha nghidn cffu nay dUa r a Id ne'u eae yd'u to' khde khdng doi thi:
- Tai trtf bang ntf vay t a n g ldn theo thud' sud't t h u i TNDN.
- Gid tri DN cang tdng ldn kM edng ty edng sff dung no vd d i l m gidi b a n la d i l m t a i dd ehi phi bidn b i n g vdi ltfi ich bidn eua vide vay ntf.
- Thud' TNCN cao ddnh trdn t i l n lai tff cho vay se khdng khuyd'n khich eae cdng ty sff dung ntf vay.
2.2 Cdc nghien cdu thdc nghiem ve tdc dgng cua thui TN den cdu true vd'n trong md'i lien he vdi gid tri DN
Nghidn cffu thffc nghiem v l tdc dpng cua thud' TN tai My.
Graham (1996) cho r a n g mffe thud' sua't eua 3 loai thud' TN trong md h i n h cua Miller ed a n h hudng dd'n sU lUa ehpn cd'u true vd'n. Graham va Tucker (2006) cho tha'y r a n g quy md cdc t a m chan thud' ehid'm trung binh Id 9% gid tri tai s a n trung binh eua DN, bao g i m ca ta'm chan thud' khdng phai do nor vay vd t d m ehan thud' tU thud' TNDN.
Vdi nhffng kd't qua nghidn cffu thtfc nghidm v l My, ta nhdn t h l y ehinh sdch thud' ciia My khdng chi n h a m ddng vidn n g u i n thu cho ngdn sdch md con la cdng cu chu yd'u dilu chinh n e n kinh td' vi md.
Qua cdc phan tich tren, cd t h i tha'y mdi stf dilu chinh chinh sdch thud' eua My d i u dUtfc xdy dtfng trdn n i n t a n g phdn tieh a n h hudng eua nd de'n hoat dpng eua ede cdng ty.
Nghidn cffu thtfc nghidm v l tdc ddng cua t h u i TN tai chau Au.
Sjo (1996) k h a n g dinh thue s u i t bidn t l ed t h i
tdc ddng de'n t;^ Id no bd't eff kM ndo he thong thui khdng trung ldp, gidm thul^ sud't bien td' se ldm giam ty Id ntf. F r y d e n b e r g (2001) ehffng minh r a n g cai cdch thud' TN n a m 1992 dd gay tdc dong cd y nghia thd'ng kd ldn ty le ntf cua cde cdng ty N a U y .
Tdm lai, t a i cdc qud'c gia chdu Au, sU gia tang ltfi Ich tff thud' do viec t a i trpr no se tao ra tdc dong tdng ddn bay tdi cMnh eua cdng ty. Cde quoc gia chdu Au cd xu hUdng e l t giam thud' s u i t thui TNDN vd thue' sud't b i n g nhau dd'i vdi td't ca cdc TNCN.
NgMdn cffu thtfc ngMdm v l tdc ddng eiia thui TN t a i chdu A - Thdi Binh DUtfng.
Deesomsak, Paudyal vd Peseetto (2004) bang nghidn eUu thtfc nghiem tai 4 qud'c gia chdu A - Thdi Binh DUtfng da cho thay:
+ Quy md cdng ty ed tdc ddng eiing ehilu len ty Id no eua edng ty.
+ T r i l n vpng t d n g trUdng ed tdc ddng ngUOc ehilu ldn ty Id ntf cua edng ty.
+ Ltfi n h u d n ed tdc ddng ngUptc ehilu len t^ 1§
no eua cdng ty.
+ Ta'm chan thud' khdng phai tff ntf cd tac dong nguoc ehilu ldn ty Id ntf cua cdng ty.
+ Tinh t h a n h khodn ed tdc ddng ngUpc chieu ldn ty le ntf cua cdng ty.
+ Tinh bid'n ddng cua TN khdng gay ra tdc ddng ddng k l ldn vide sff dung ddn bay.
- Qua cdc nghidn cffu thffc ngMem trdn, co thi thd'y: CMnh sdch t h u i TN khdng cM t h i hidn vai trd d i l u tie't k i n h td' vi md, t a o n g u i n thu cho ehinh phu, md cdn tao r a ltfi the' thu hut dong TN vdo qud'c gia minh. CMnh sdch t h u i tdc ddng den b o a t ddng vd cde quye't dinh tdi cMnb cua DN.
Ngfftfc lai, quyet dinh tdi chinh cd t h i dnh hudng d i n ehinh sdch thud' cua ehinh phu. Dilu ndy cho tha'y quan hd c h a t che giffa cMnh sdch thue v^
boat dpng eiia DN Id vd'n d l r a t quan trpng cdn dUtfe edn n h a c trong qua t r t n h hoach dinh chinh sdch.
3. Khilo silt ciic nhin tlf t i c d$ng dfn cifu trdc v^Tn t f i VN
Muc dich eua khdo sdt ndy Id ghi nhdn vl mSt dinh t i n h xem nhffng n h d n to' a n h hffdng vi§c M n h t h d n h cd'u true vd'n eua cde cdng ty cl phan VN cd tfftfng dong vdi nhffng n h d n to t r e n t h i gi<Ji hay khdng. 6 VN, n h a n to thue TN cd thUc sU anh
Phat trien kinh te - Thanig Nam nam 2011
rs GHIEN Ctfu & TRAO D O I
(COMOuct^BceneiiKvtw
hudng den quyet dinh tdi trtf cua cdc cdng ty hay khdng? Nd'u thife sif thue TN ed tdc ddng dd'n vide lifa chpn eau true vdn d VN thi stf n h d n thffc vd b i l u biet cua mpi ngudi v l vd'n d l ndy nhU the ndo? Ddy la nhffng v a n de mong dtfi se tim tha'y edu tra ldi tff k i t qua cude khdo sdt.
DUa trdn ctf sd ly t h u y l t vd cdc nghidn cUu trUde, hai bang cdu hdi dUtfc xay dUng d l lay y k i l n . Bang edu hdi thU nhd't ddnh cho ngUdi lam vide tai ede edng ty e l p h i n VN - chu yd'u lam vide d bd p h a n tai ehinh. B a n g eau hdi thff hai dupe gffi d i n dd'i tUtfng la can bd thue d Cue Thud' TP.HCM vd ede ehi cue trifc thupe n h a m muc dich khdo sdt y k i l n tff nhffng ngffdi thudc v l ctf quan cua Chinh phii va dang thtfc thi chinh saeh t h u i . PhUtfng phdp thu thdp dff lidu la l l y m l u thudn tidn. Thang do Likert vdi day gid tri tff 1 d i n 5 dupe dimg d l ddnh gid mffe dp tae ddng eua tffng nhdn to ddn stf Itfa ehpn e l u true vd'n.
TU k i t qua khao sdt, cd t h e r u t r a ke't luan rang vide Mnh t h a n h cd'u true vd'n eho cae cdng ty d VN cung chiu sU chi phd'i, tac ddng eua cdc n h a n t l tUdng tu nhu trdn the' gidi. Tuy nhidn, do dae dilm kinh t l xa hdi ciia VN va mffe dp chuydn nghidp trong vide xdy dtfng eau true vd'n eua cdng ty VN cd chdnh lech so vdi t h i gidi ndn each thffc tdc ddng cua ede n h a n td ndy t a i VN cd t h i khac bidt. Da so' cde y kid'n cho r a n g n h d n to' vi md tdc dpng den elu true von eiia cdng ty nhieu htfn nhdn t l kinh te' vi md (Hinh 1).
CPkl$lqu« til chinh IVI^ngrtrungblnh nginh Sil Ihlch ciia Ban quan tri
QuymSTSHH YmuincClacdddng Ddng ti^n Khi nang tj^p c^n n7 Bit cdn xi>ng (hdng tin
QuymdTS Tim chin thui Chi phi d9l diin
Ting tnrd'ng Nginh L^ nhuin GDP phit min d|nh chi til chinh XuhlfirngrrCK Ihui thu nhip chhh a ldi cho NOT vi Trii chd
Lim phit 191 suit
0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0
Cdc y k i l n ddnh gid ghi n h d n dUtfc qua cudc khao sat eung eho rang thud' TN cung la mdt trong so eae n h a n to' tae ddng ddng k l dd'n vide lifa ehpn ca'u true vd'n. Mac du vai tro eua cd'u true vd'n trong md'i quan he vdi gid tri DN khdng cdn Id van de xa la dd'i vdi linh vtfc tdi chinh VN nhtfng thud' TNCN cdn khd mdi me d VN ndn nd chUa dUtfe b i l u mdt cdch chinh xac, n h i l u ngUdi l i m tudng nd chi a n h hudng dd'n tffng cd nhdn, chff khdng a n h hffdng d i n boat ddng cua cdng ty.
Kd't qua khao sdt cho thd'y trong 21 nhdn to dUtfc eho la cd tae ddng dd'n stf Itfa chpn ca'u true vd'n thi tdm chan thue tff ntf d vi tri thff 6, n h a n t l chinh sdch t h u i TN d vi tri thff 14. Do t i l n ldi phai tra cho ntf vay dUtfc trU r a khdi TN chiu thue, ndn thue s u i t thud' TNDN cang cao thi sd' tid't kidm thud' ciia cdng ty edng ldn. Cde cdng ty sff dung ntf trong cd'u true vd'n d l hudng ltfi ieh tff t i m ehan thud' nay. Cd t h i n h d n thd'y rang tuy mffe dp tdc dpng khdng phai la cao nhffng ehinh sdch thud' TN cung la mdt tdc n h a n ddng k l ma cdc DNVN ed xem xet khi lUa ehpn cd'u trde vd'n.
4. Pliin ticii tac dSng cua thul'TN d^n cifu true v^n cac cdng ty c^ pliin VN
4.1 Md hinh nghien cdu
PhUtfng phdp k i l m dinh bang hoi quy da b i l n dupe sff dung d l do ludng tdc ddng cua cde nhan to dd'n eau true vd'n trong bdi canh cu t h i tai VN.
Phuong phap h i i quy dtfn bid'n eung dUtfe sff dung hd trtf d l phdn tieh trong trUdng hop cdc hd s i hoi quy da bid'n khdng d a t ydu clu v l y nghia thd'ng kd.
Md hinh dtfn bid'n cd dang:
Y = a + p.X + £t Trong dd:
Y : Bid'n phu thudc, t h i hidn ca'u true vd'n cdc cdng ty
X : B i l n doe lap, t h i hidn n h a n to tae ddng Md hinh da bid'n cd dang:
Y = a + p„.X„ + £t Trong dd:
Y : Bid'n phu thudc, t h i hidn clu true vd'n cdc edng ty
Xn : Bid'n ddc lap, t h e Men cde nhdn td' tac
Hinh 1. Mffe d$ tdc d$ng cua cac nhdn tc^ din cau true von (theo gid trj trung binh)
dng a :
P„:
Et :
Hd so t u do Hd sd' hoi quy Sai so n g l u nhien
Bid'n Y dai dien eho ddn b i y tdi chinh se dUtfc
Phat triin kinh t ^ - Thang Nam nSm 2011
1990]
NGHIEN Ctfu & TRAO JJG
tCOWOIiiCDtWCTMPfllg«W
kiem dinh b i n g ca h a i ehi tidu t y sd': Ntf ddi hanA^d'n eo p h i n (LDE) vd t^ so T i n g ntf A^d'n c l p h i n (DE) eho phu htfp vdi h o a n c a n h ngMen cffu tai VN.
Mo hinh hSi quy da biin thd nhdt de kiem dinh cdc nhdn td thuoc nhdm vl mo Id:
LDEi= a + Pi.INFt + Pg-LRATEt + Ps-GDPt + P4.VNINDEX + P5. D(TNCN) + et (1)
DEi= a + Pi.INFt + Pg.LRATEt + pg.GDPt + P4.VNINDEX + Ps-DfTNCN) + et (2)
LDEi la ty Id ntf dai b a n trung binh eua cdc edng ty trong quy t.
DEi Id ty Id t i n g ntf trung binh eua ede edng ty trong quy t.
Dff lieu chudi thdi gian theo qu^ dUtfc sff dung trong md h i n h ndy.
Mo hinh hdi quy da bien thii hai di kiim dinh cdc nhan td thuoc nhdm vi md la:
LDE2= a + pi.PROFITit + p2-SIZEi_t + P3.GROWi,t + P4.TAXi_t+P5.D(„) +£i,t '(3)
DE2 = a + Pi.PROFITit + P2-SIZEit + p3.GR0Wi,t + P4-TAXi,t + p5.D(„; + ei,t '(4)
LDE2 la ty Id ntf ddi b a n cua edng ty i trong ndm t.
DE2 la ty Id t i n g ntf cua edng ty i trong n a m t.
Dff lidu cheo dfftfc sff dung trong md hinh ndy.
Bdng 1. Tdm tat cdc bien dpc lap trong md hinh hoi quy thff nhat
Bdng 2. Tom tat cac bien d$c lap trong mo hinh h6i quy thff hai
Bien so'
INFt
LRATEt
GDPt
VNINDEX,
D{TNCN)
Diln gidl
Lam phat
Lai sua't cho vay
Tong san pham qudc npi Xu hudng cCiathj trudng chdng khoan
Bien gia dai didn cho thue TNCN
Do ludng bang Ty le tang CPI trung binh trong quyt
Lai suat cho vay cCia NHTM trung binh trong quy t GDP trung binh trong qu;/ t
VNINDEX trung binh trong qu^ t
nhan gia tri = 1 khi chinh sach thue TNCN dupc ban hanh; ngupc lai thi se nhan gia trj = 0
Ky vpng
+
-
-
-
Cd anh hudng
Bien sd
PROFIT^
SIZEi^t
GROWi^t
TAXi,t
D(n)
Dien gidi Ltfi nhuan cCia cdng ty i trong nam t
Quy md cdng ty i trong nam t
Trien vpng tang trudng cua cdng ty i trong nam t Thue suat TNDN hieu iUc cda cdng ty i trong nam t Cac bien gid dai didn cho cac nganh
Do lUdng bang ROA (Lpi nhuan rdng / Tdng tai sdn)
Ln(Tong tai sdn)
(EPSt-EPSt.1) /EPS,.i
ThueTNDN npp/TN ho^t ddng trudc thue
Nhdn gia tri = 1,2 6
vpng
-
+
+
+
Co dnh hirdng
Dff lieu chuoi t h d i gian theo qu^ dfftfc sff dung trong md h i n h hoi quy thff nhd't; edn dff lieu cheo dfftfc sff dung trong md h i n h hoi quy thff hai.
Cdc cdng ty trong mau dfftfc phdn cMa thdnh 6 n h d m ngdnh la: s a n xud't, thfftfng mai, cdng nghd thdng tin, xay dtfng - bd't dpng sdn, dich vu - tien ich cdng d i n g , khai khoang. D l t r d n h Men tUpng da edng tuyd'n, ehi cd 5 trong s i 6 bid'n gia dUdc dUa vdo md Mnh.
Tai VN, cdc edng ty thudng t h d m dung ntf ngin b a n thudng xuydn, t h d m chi cd edng ty t^ trpng ntf n g i n h a n thudng xuydn ehid'm dd'n 80% trong tong ntf, do dd tdc gia x e t cd hai trUdng htfp Y dUtfe do ludng b i n g ty sd T i n g ntf/ Vd'n chu sd hOtu vd Y dUtfc do ludng b i n g ty sd Ntf ddi han / Vin chu sd hffu. Vd'n chu sd hffu dfftfc do lUdng theo gid tri thi trudng, t h d n g qua gid tri vd'n hda theo thi trUdng.
4.2 Dd lieu vd phddng phdp nghiin cdu Dff lidu dffdc thu t h a p tff bdo cdo tdi ehinh da dfftfc kiem todn vd edng bd eua 219 cdng ty nidm yd't t r d n HOSE t r o n g giai d o a n 2005 thdng 6/2010, k h d n g bao g i m ngdn hdng, cdng ty bdo M i m , cdng ty ehffng khodn, cdng ty tdi ehinh vd
Phat trien kinh t^ - Thang Nam nam 2011
IN GHIEN Ctfu & TRAO D O I
cdc quy dau tff. hf do ehpn m l u nghidn cffu nhff tren Id do gid tri nidm yet t r e n HOSE cMd'm de'n 93,47% t i n g gid tri m e m yl't trdn todn thi trffdng.
Mdt khde, trffde n d m 2005, viec edng bd' thdng tin vd luu trff dff lieu chffa t h d t sff day du. Giai doan 2005-2010 dfftfc xem la giai doan phdt trien eua thi trudng tdi chinh VN vdi thdng tin va cde dff lifu ve cde edng ty nidm ye't dfftfc luu trff mdt cdch ddy du htfn. Ngodi ra, cde so lieu v l lai suat eho vay, lam phdt, t a n g trffdng GDP, cM so' thi trffdng ehffng khodn VNINDEX trong giai doan nay eung dupe thu thdp n h a m k i l m dinh tdc ddng eua cdc nhdn t l kinh te' vi md dd'n cd'u trffc vd'n cdng ty VN.
Cdc edng ty trong mdu dUtfc phdn cMa t h a n h 6 nhdm ngdnh Id: san xud't, thUtfng mai, edng nghd thdng tin, xdy dUng - b a t ddng sdn, dich vu - tidn ich cdng ding, khai khodng.
4.3 Phdn tich kit qud
Ty Id ntf ddi b a n t r d n vd'n c l phSn trung binh cua ede edng ty nidm ye't d HOSE Id 43,24%. T^
Id t i n g not trdn von co phdn trung binh eua ede edng ty nidm yd't d HOSE Id 179,42%. So sdnh hai kd't qud trdn ed t h i kd't ludn rang: Cdc cdng ty VN thidn ve tdi trtf bang ntf htfn Id bkng von e l phan, vd thdm dung ntf ngdn b a n (tffe Id n g u i n tdi trtf no sff dung chinh yd'u la ntf vay ng^n ban).
Qua cdc sd' lieu thffc td' dupre k i l m nghidm vd Udc luang eho t i n g t h i d trdn, tdm lai, md'i tUtfng quan giffa cdc n h d n t l vd ty Id ddn bay tai ehinh kd't qud b l i quy tim thd'y nhff sau:
Dd'u (-) Id tfftfng quan nghich.
Dd'u (+) la tfftfng quan thudn.
Bdng 3. Tong hpp kit qud kiem djnh tac dpng cua cdc nhan to' vT mo
Bdng 4. Cdc mo hinh hoi quy the hipn mffe dp tac dpng cua cac nhan td
Nhdn td'
Tdng trudng GDP L^m phdt
Ldi sudt
Xu hudng cCia thj trudng ehffng khodn Chlnh sdch thue TNCN
Gid thiet ky vpng
- + _ - Cd tdc *
ddng
Ket qud kiem dmh Tdc dpng
den LDEi
-
—
— - .^.^
Khdng tdc dpng
Tdc dpng den DE.|
- - - -
-
Tdc dpng len t^ lp LDE / Vdn cd phan Mo hinh 3.1:
LDEi = 0,745 - *0,022 INF-*2,218.10-«GDP + E Adj. R2 = 29,9% ;
ANOVA: Gid trj F = 4,72;
Sig.= 0,02.
Md hinh 3.2:
L D E i = 0,636-"*0,016 LRATE +6
Adj. R2 = 29,9% ; ANOVA: Gid trj F = 3,47;
Sig.= 0.07.
Md hinh 3.3:
LDEi= 0,544195-
*0,000215 VNINDEX+ e Adj. R2 = 25,71 % ; ANOVA: Gid tn F = 4,72;
Sig.= 0,02.
Tdc dpng len t^ lp DE/
Vdn cd phan Mo hinh 3.4:
DEi = 3,7739-*0,0013 VN!NDEX-*0,1027 LRATE + e Adj. R2 = 46,2% ; ANOVA: Gid tn F=4,72;
Sig.= 0,001.
Md hinh 3.5:
D E i = 3,8705-*1,66.10 = GDP-*0,0749INF+E Adj. R2 = 32,34% ; ANOVA: Gid trj F = 6,01;
Sig.= 0,00.
Md hinh 3.6:
DEi= 1,897550-
*"0,499000 D_TNCN + E Adj. R2 = 11,3% ;
ANOVA: Gia trj F = 3,67;
Sig.= 0,06.
Ghi chd: *, **, *** tUtfng Ung dp tin cay 99%, 95%, 90%.
Xu hudng cua thi trUdng ehffng khodn vd lai sud't cho vay tdc dpng m a n h dd'n vide edng ty lUa chpn nguon tai trpf nao. Su thay d l i cua ridng hai n h d n td' ndy giai thich dd'n 46,2% sU bien ddng cua ty Id ntf trong cd'u trffc vd'n. Hai bid'n ndy cd tUtfng quan nghich ehilu vdi bid'n ddc lap (Mffe f nghia dd'n 99%). Dac bidt, trong so cdc md hinh kd't qua tim dfftfc, n h d n td' ldi sud't cd hd sd' tfftfng quan ldn nhd't, xdc n h a n thffc t r a n g tai VN, chi phi sff dung vd'n vd mffe dp sff dupg ntf vay cua cdc cdng ty VN chiu sff tdc ddng m a n h cua ldi sud't cho vay cua ngdn hang. Md Mnh 3.3 gidi thich dfftfc 25,71% sU bid'n ddng eua ty Id ntf ddi b a n trdn von e l phan. Md Mnh 3.4 cho thd'y sU thay d l i eua xu hudng thi trudng ehffng khodn vd lai sua't giai thich dupe 46,2% sU bid'n ddng eua ty Id t i n g ntf trdn vd'n c l phan. Mffe dp gidi thich khd eao cua md hinh 3.3 vd 3.4 t h i Men cd'u true vd'n eua ede cdng ty khdng dUtfc M n h t h d n h theo chid'n luoc ddi ban, ma thay d l i n h a n h chdng, tU phdt theo tinh h i n h thi trUdng ehffng khodn vd ldi sud't.
Trong khi dd, ede n h d n td vi md t h i hi?n sff phdt t r i l n ben vffng cua n i n kinh td' nhff GDP vd lam
Phat trien kinh te - Thana Ndm nam 2011
NGHIEN Cijfu & TRAO iM
6C0W0MC OeVHOPhegTOEVtW
phdt lai t h i M e n t a e ddng ye'u htfn de'n sU lUa ehpn eau true vd'n, cho thd'y cdch thffc hoaeh dinh cd'u true vd'n cua ede edng ty VN thid'u t i n h chuydn nghiep.
K i t qua eung eho thd'y n h d n td' chinh saeh thue TNCN thUe sU cd a n h hudng dd'n ty Id ntf cua cde cdng ty VN, theo md'i tUtfng quan ty Id nghich vdi dp tin cay t r d n 90%. N h d n t d thud' TNCN gidi thich dUtfe 11,3% sU bid'n ddng eua ty Id t i n g ntf trdn vd'n c l p h a n trung binh eua cdc edng ty. Dilu nay cho thd'y, tuy mffe dp tdc ddng dd'n ty so ddn bay cua cde edng ty khdng eao, nhffng chinh sdch thud' TNCN cd gay r a a n h hudng dang k l de'n hudng phdt trien eua DN. CMnh sdch thud' ciing gio mdt vai trd quan trpng trong boat ddng dieu tid't n e n kinh td' vi md cua chinh phu. Vi the', vide ban h d n h chinh sdch mdi hay dilu chinh v l chinh sdch thud' TNCN cfin dfftfc xem xet, can nhac dnh hffdng eua ehinh sdch dd'n hffdng phdt trien ddi b a n cua cdc DN trong n i n kinh td'. Cd nhff vay mdi d a m bao dfftfc cho mue tidu phdt t r i l n b i n vffng cua toan n e n kinh td'.
ddi b a n vd ty Id t i n g ntf nhffbg chi the Men trong n a m 2008.
Bdng 6. Ket qud hoi quy ciia mo hinh
(Hang so) TAX PROFIT
R2 hieu chinh:
0,267
H$ SO chffa dupc chuan
hoa 1,766 1,839 -0,092
Y nghTa
0,0000 0,0001 0,0000 ANOVA: Gid trj F: 27,6;
Sig.: 0,0000 Bid'n phu thudc: D/E Phfftfng t r i n h h i i quy:
D/E = 1,766 + 1,839TAX - 0,092PROFIT Md M n h hoi quy k h a n g dinh thue TNDN tuong quan cung ehilu cd y nghia (Dp tin cdy 99%) vdi ty Id t i n g ntf t r d n vd'n c l p h a n trung binh cua cdc edng ty (D/E).
Bdng 5. Tong hpp ket qud kiem djnh tdc dpng cOa cac nhan td vi mo Nhan td
Lpi nhudn (Biln PROFIT)
Quy md cdng ty (Biln SIZE)
Trien vpng tang trudng cdng ty (Biln GROW)
ThueTNDN (Biln TAX)
Tdc ddng d i n LDE2 Tac dpng den DE2 Tdc ddng de'n LDE2 Tdc ddng d i n DE2 Tdc ddng d i n LDE2 Tdc ddng d i n DE2 Tdc ddng d i n LDE2 Tdc ddng dd'n DE2 Quan sdt
Nam 2006
- - + 0 0 0 0 0 79
Nam 2007
- - + 0 0 0 0 0 113
Nam 2008
- - + 0 0 - + + 147
Nam 2009
- - + + 0 0 0 0 219
6 thdng dau nam 2010
- - + + 0 0 0 0 218 Bang tong htfp trdn eho thd'y tdc ddng cua cdc
nhdn to de'n cd'u true vd'n I n dinh qua cde nam, kd't qua kiem dinh la ddng tin eay.
Kd't qua eua md h i n h thUc nghiem cho thd'y:
Ltfi nhudn vdn the hidn md'i tUtfng quan nghich vdi ty le ntf ddi b a n vd ty Id t i n g ntf. Thue TNDN the hidn tUtfng quan ty le thudn vdi ea ty Id ntf
Theo nghidn cffu cua tdc gia, ndm 2008 Chinh phu VN d i l u ehinh gidm thue sud't t h u i TNDN xud'ng ehi edn 25% nhffng thffc td', t h u i sud't hi?u lUc trong n d m ndy t d n g ehff khdng gidm (Hinh 2).
L^ do Id chinh sdch e^t gidm t h u i sud't dfftfc ban h d n h vdo t h d n g 6/2008, tdc dpng cua cMnh sdch ed dp t r i t h d i gian, n e n thud' sud't M§u lUe phdn
Phat trien kinh te - Thana Nam nam 2011
•sf/'.m
i^SiiEN Ci?u & TRAO D O I
dnh s i thue thUc ndp eua cdc edng ty ehUa t h i Men xu hudng giam ngay trong ndm 2008. Thdm vdo dd, ndm 2008 cung la n a m nhieu cdng ty da h i t thdi b a n dfftfc hffdng ffu ddi t h u i TNDN ndn thue su^t hidu lUe ndm 2008 tdng.
Hinh 2. Thue suat thue TNDN VN giai doan 2005-2010
200,0% .
150,0% •
100,0% .
50,0%
0,0% .
• 97,3%
10,2%
44,6%
8,7%
isvJ
7 , 7 % ^
••155%
40,4%
Yf^8%
24.1%
• 13S%
, ^ 4 4 . 2 %
2008 2009 2 quy diu 2010
• TBng nm / VCP
• Np' dai hgn / VCP
Hinh 3. T^ lp np dai han va tdng np tren vdn cd phan trung binh 2005-2010
0,35 1
0,3
0,25
0,2
0,15 '
0.1
0,05
0 32%
V , 28% 2 8 %
14,05%
11,91%
t 1 , 0 2 % 2 5 %
17,28%
15.55% ^ ^ ,
^ 15.16%
Tn/Ac 2003 2004 200S 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2003
- T h u A s u ^ t hi$u li.rc trung binh - T h u i sudt
danh nghTa
Hinh 3 cho t h a y ntf ddi b a n vd t i n g ntf bie'n dOng cung xu the. Tuy nhien, nor ddi b a n cM ehid'm mpt ty le th£p trong tong ntf, td'e dp thay d l i cua ting ntf ldn hdn so vdi ntf ddi ban, dd Id do nd ngan ban chilm ty trpng cao trong c^u true tdi cMnh cua cdc cdng ty. Dieu ndy t h i Men vide xdy difng cau true v i n eua cde edng ty VN khdng dUa t r e n nhffng
nguydn tac cua quan tri tdi chinh hidn dai ma mang tinh tu p h a t eao vd khdng chuydn ngMep.
Tdm lai, kd't qua tff md hinh cho thd'y nhan td t h u i TNCN ed tdc ddng dd'n hdnh vi eua nha dau tu va DN, ddn dd'n sU thay doi trong mffe dp sff dung ntf eua cdc edng ty, thue TNDN dffdng nhff khdng t h i hipn tdc ddng dd'n cd'u true vd'n eua cdc cdng ty VN, chi ed n a m 2008 Id t h i hidn tfftfng quan ty Id thudn dat y nghia thd'ng kd.
5. G^ y chfnh sach
Tff nhffng nghidn cffu trdn, tdc gia d l xua't edc- gtfi y trong vide hoach dinh cd'u true vd'n eho cac edng ty VN trong md'i lidn he vdi ehinh sdch t h u i TN •
5.1 Ve phia DN
Trong hoach dinh CEIU true vd'n, c i n phdi nghien cffu tdc ddng eua cde n h d n t l ndi chung vd ddc bidt Id can thdn trpng hdn trong vifc tdn dung ltfi t h i cua t a m ehan t h u i ddc bidt can thffc hifn dong bp cde giai phdp de ndng eao hd so tin nhiem, ndng cao nhdn thffc vd Mdu qua quan tri tdi ehinh DN, ehu trpng vide xdy dffng vd ndng cao vai trd eua cdc gidm d i e tai ehinh trong cdng ty d l hffdng dd'n muc tidu td'i da hda gid tri DN.
5.2 Ve phia chinh sdch thui
Nghidn cffu da chi r a r a n g mdt quyet dinh Iffa chpn eau true von khdng phai chi la sdn pham cua cdc n h a n td' dae trffng ridng eua cdng ty md cdn Id ke't qua cua sff dilu hdnh cua chinh phu, khung ludt phdp, tinh hinh kinh te vi md tai qud'c gia md cdng ty dd dang boat ddng.
Dd'i vdi t h u i TNDN: Chinh sdch t h u i TN ludn giff mpt vai trd quan trpng trong dilu t i l t kinh td' vi md. Vi thd', mdi sff d i l u ehinh ehinh sdch thud' eua VN can dfftfc xdy dffng t r e n n i n tang phdn tich a n h hffdng cua nd d i n boat ddng eua cdc cdng ty. Ngodi mue tidu ddng vidn tao nguon thu eho n g a n sdch nhd nffdc, chinh sdch thue TN cdn can dam bao muc tidu cdng bang xa hpi vd muc tidu ho trpr cho sff phdt t r i l n eua thi trffdng vd'n. Vide edn nhac tdc ddng eua ehinh sdch t h u i dd'n boat dpng vd sff phdt t r i l n cua ede DN giup eho ehinh phu khdng ehi thu tao ma cdn nudi dudng nguon thu eho sU phdt t r i l n kinh t l xd hdi trong ddi ban.
Phat trien kinh te - Thang NSm nSm 2011
NGHIEN Ci?u & TRAO
Doi vdi thue TNCN: Thud' TNCN la mdt sac thud' quan t r p n g cd y nghia ldn t r o n g nguon thu ngdn sdch eua cde qud'c gia tidn tid'n t r d n the' gidi.
Vi vay, Chinh phu can nghidn cffu xdy dffng bieu thud', phUtfng phdp t i n h thud' mot cdch khoa hpe, d l cd t h i dua chinh sdch t h u i TNCN t r d t h d n h mdt edng eu d i l u tid't vi md trong p h d t t r i e n k i n h te, dinh hudng cho cMnh sdch tdi ehinh DN hUdng tdi mdt cd'u true vd'n td'i Uu. Trong bdi c a n h n e n k i n h td' VN giai doan M e n nay, dd'i vdi ed n h d n (tffe la cdc c l ddng) n e n d d n h thud' tieu dung htfn Id ddnh thud' TN, d l gia t d n g tieh luy cho cd nhdn, t a n g tieh luy trong ehinh ndi bd n i n k i n h td', t a o ndi Iffe eho thi trffdng von. Vi t h e , Chinh phu n d n d i l u chinh chinh sdch thud' TNCN theo hffdng t a n g mffe giam trff gia canh eho b a n t h d n vd cho ngffdi phu thupe theo sff gia t a n g cua l a m phdt, gian khodng cdch giffa cdc bdc thud' bdng cdch ndng mffe TN chiu thud' cua tffng bdc, bd bdt cdc bae le, chi giff lai bdc 10%, 20%, 30%.
Thud' sud't ddnh t r d n lai vd'n can dUtfc giam d l tUtfng quan htfp 1;^ vdi thud' sud't d d n h t r e n e l tffe hidn nay (5%) n h d m khuyd'n khich cdc eo ddng khdng n h a n e l tffe md giff lai ltfi n h u a n trong cdng ty d l tdi d i u tff. Cdng ty sff dung ed hidu qua n g u i n TN giff lai ndy se ldm gia t a n g gid t r i DN.
Chinh sdch thud' TNDN c i n dUtfe xay dUng trong md'i lidn he vdi ehinh sdch thud' TNCN hudng dd'n tao tieh luy cho ca cdng ty ldn c l ddng, t a o d i l u kidn t h u a n ltfi eho cdc cdng t y Uu tidn sff dung n g u i n tdi trtf la ltfi nhudn giff lai - nhff quan d i l m cua ly thuyd't t r d t tff p h d n h a n g .
Tdm lai, nhffng ke't qua n g h i e n cffu va giai phdp d l xud't hy vpng se dem lai y ngMa thffc tidn eho cdc edng ty VN eung nhff ede n h a hoaeh dinh chinh sdch nhkm hffdng tdi. sff p h d t t r i e n b i n vffng cua ede DN ndi ridng vd n i n k i n h te' ndi chunga
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1. Chang, R. and G. Rhee (1990), The Impact of Per- sonal Taxes on Corporate Dividend Policy and Capital Structure Decisions, Financial Management 9, 21-32.
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(2004), "The Determinants of Capital Structure: Evidence from the Asia Pacific Region", Journal of Multinational Financial management, 14 (4-5). pp. 387-405
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Phat trien kinh te - T h a n g Nam nam 2011
