PHAP LUAT - AN NINH
T H U U N GMAI
T
fnh tdi thdi diem cudi ng^y 12/10/2010 theo gid Viet Nam, sd nd cdng to^n ciu dffdc hien thi tren ddng hd nd cdng trdn T h e E c o n o m i s t d a t m i / c 39.942.437.066.497 USD (gan 40 nghln t^ USD). Ddng hd nd n&y dang lien tyc quay theo chieu tSng, cho th^y mile nd cdng cua toan the gidi dang khdng ngffng tang len, trong dd cd Vi$t Nam.Tren b^n dd nd dUdc d^t dudi ddng hd nd cdng, The Economist da ph§n loai cac qude gia theo mdc nd cdng tinh tren dau ngudi, tdng mffc nd cdng, mffc nd cdng thay ddi theo n§m, tdng nd cdng tfnh tren GDP. Trong dd, nhOng quoc gia n$ng nd nhSt dUdc td mau dd, cdn nhQng quoc gia ft nd nan nhat dU0c t6mauxanhd§m.
d tieu chi nd cdng tfnh tren dau ngudi, tai mdc thdi gian ndi tren, The Economist cho biet, binh quan moi ngudi Viet Nam dang ganh 580,91 USD nd cong. Con sd nay la 713,6 USD ddi vdi Trung Quoc, 743 USD ddi vdi Indonesia, 4.184 USD ddi vdi Malaysia, 1.071 USD ddi vdi Philippines, 2.064 USD ddi vdi Thai Lan...
Tuy nhien, neu xet 6 tieu chi ty 1$ nd cong tren GDP, thi Viet Nam dang dffdc The Economist xep vao nhdm nude cd mffc no tren trung binh. Theo sd lieu cua The Economist, tdng nd cong cua Viet Nam hien la 50,935 ty USD, tffdng dUdng 51,6% GDP
Tff 2001 tdi nay, nd cdng cua Viet Nam lien tuc tang ve gia trj tuyet ddi, mffc nd binh quan dau ngudi va ty le nd cdng tren GDP. Theo sd lieu cua The Economist, vao nam 2001, nd cdng cua Viet Nam mdi la ehua tdi 9 ty' USD, binh quan moi ngffdi ganh sd nd cdng xap X1112 USD, va nd cong mdi tffdng dffdng 28% GDP.
Theo quan diem ciia Bo Tai chfnh, thi hien nay "khdng cd khoan no nao den han ma khong t r i dffdc, khdng ed nd qua han va nd xau" Song, cau hdi lieu Viet Nam da tfnh dung va tfnh du no cong hay ehua, nhffng bat cap dang tdn tai trong quin ly tai chi'nh cdng se
^ ThS. NGUYEN VAN THANH (Bp Tdi Chinh) ThS. TRAN DINH NAM (TrUdng Trung cd'p KT-TC Hd Npi)
dffdc khSc phgc nhff the nao... dffdng nhff v i n la noi ban khoan khdng nhd.
Cudi thing 12/2010, hang djnh mffctfn nhiem Standard & Poor's tuyen bd eat giim mot bac diem tfn nhiem no qude gia cua Viet Nam. Trien vong cua diem sdtfn nhi$m mdi nay cung bj S&P dat d mffc "tieu effc". Theo dd diem tfn nhidm nd ngoai te dai han cua Viet Nam giim tff BB xudng BB-, ddng hang vdi Mong Cd va Bangladesh; trong khi diem gianh cho no noi te ngin ban duoc duy tri d mffc B. Trffdc dd hang djnh mffc tin nhiem Moody's cung c i t giim mot bie dilm tfn nhiom no cdng cua Viet Nam.
Hien nay vdn vay Chfnh phu chiem khoing 17% tdng vdn dau tff toan xa hoi. Bu d i p bdi ehi ngin sich Nha nude khoing 5% GDP (nim 2009 la 6,9%).
Theo b i o c i o giim s i t cua Oy ban Tai chfnh Ngan sich, no Chfnh phu dang tang cao, tff 33,8% GDP n i m 2007 Idn 36,2% nam 2008, n i m 2009 chiem 41,9% GDP va 44,6% GDP vao nam 2010. Con sd no cong cua Viet Nam da tang s i t mffc tran cho phep.
Theo sd lieu cCia Bo Tai chfnh, tfnh den 31/12/2010, dff no Chfnh phu bing 44,3% GDP, du no qude gia bang
42,2% GDP, dff no edng bang 56,6%
GDP Ve cd cau, dff no vay trong nffdc ngay cang tSng, cdn dff no nffdc ngoai ngay cang giim.
Nhffng sd lieu mdi nhat ve no cdng dffdc Bp Tai chfnh cdng bd mdi day thi ed cau nd edng cua Viet Nam bao gdm:
No Chfnh phu chiem 80%, no Chinh phu b i o lanh cho DN chiem 19% va no cua chfnh quyen dja phUdng chiem 1 %. B i o c i o cija Chfnh phu trinh Qude hoi gan day cho thay, tfnh den cudi nam 2010, dff no Chfnh phu bing khoing 45,7% GDP, dU no nffdc ngoai cua qude gia khoing 42,2% GDP
Theo sd lieu cua Bo Tai chfnh, tfnh den het n§m 2009, tdng dff nO nffdc ngoai qude gia cija Viet Nam, bao gdm no nffdc ngoai Chfnh phu va no nude ngoai dffOe Chfnh phtj b i o lanh la 27,929 ty USD, i p dung ty g i i quy ddi tai thdi diem cudi ky; trong dd no nffdc ngoai la gan 23,943 ty USD va no do Chfnh phu b i o linh la 3,986 ty USD.
Nhu vay sd no nude ngoai k h i thap, chi chiem khoing 55% va ed khoing eich xa so vdi tdng sd no cdng do The Economiest cong bd la xap xi 51 ty USD.
No nude ngoai ciia qude gia n i m 2009 so vdi GDP bang 39%,
THirdNGMAIS6'05/2012|9
Q PHAP LUAT - AN NINH T H U O N G MAI
c:F^ song n i m 2010 ting Idn 42,2%.
Ndu xdt theo khuydn nghj cija Ngin hang Thd gidi (WB) thi Vi$t Nam thuOc dien qude gia cd no nffdc ngoii vffa phii, theo dd trdn 50% dffdc cho l i no q u i nhieu; nghia vg t r i no nffdc ngoii trung d i i hgn so vdi xuit khiu hing hda, djch vg chi bing 4,2% (WB cho phdp ddn 25%); dff trff ngogi hdi so vdi no nffdc ngoii ngin hgn l i 290%
(khuydn nghj cua WB l i trdn 200%);
nghia vg t r i no Chfnh phu so vdi tdng thu ngin sich n h i nffdc 5,1% (ngffdng an toin cua WB l i dffdi 35%)...
Cung theo sd li$u cua Bd T i i chfnh, c i e khoin vay nude ngoii cua Vi$t Nam da sd ddu cd l i i suit thip, trong dd vay ODA chidm ty trpng 74,67%;
vay Uu d i i chidm 5,41%; vay thffdng mgi 19,92%.
Cg thd, khdng kd no dffOe Chfnh phu b i o linh, trong tdng sd du no nffdc ngoii Chfnh phu l i g i n 23,943 ty USD, cd ddn 19,325 ty USD l i i suit tff 1- 2.99%/nam; tren 1,5 ty USD lai suit tff 3 5,99%/nim; 281,7 tri$u USD l i i suit 5,99%/nim v i 919 tri§u USD d mffc lai suit 6 10%/nam. Ngoii ra, hon 1,9tyUSDdffno con Igi dffdc i p l i i suit t h i ndi theo l i i suit lien ngin hing cua thi trudng London (LIBOR).
Vdi l i i suit Libor trong khoing 3 n i m g i n d i y thi lai suit t h i ndi l i k h i thip.
Cdn ddi vdi 919 tri#u USD ed l i i suit k h i cao!
Co c i u ddng tidn vay trong tdng dff no nffdc ngoii Chfnh phu cung k h i da dang, mot sd y kidn cho ring cd thd ban che rui ro ve ty g i i , giim i p Iffc l i n nghia vu t r i no nude ngoii cua Chfnh phu. Cg the, Idn nhit l i c i e khoin vay bing ddng Y i n , chidm 41.96%; SDR (quyen rut vdn d i e bidt - ddn vj tidn t0 quy ffdc cua mot sd nffdc thinh viin Quy Tien te Qude td) chidm 27,39%;
vay theo ddng USD chidm 16,61 %; vay bing ddng Euro chidm 10,68%; cdn \p\
la e i c ddng tidn khie chiem 3,37%
tdng dff no nffdc ngoii Chfnh phu.
Dff kien nghia vg t r i no ddi vdi c i e khoin no nffdc ngoii cua Chfnh phCi, tfnh c i gdc v i l i i , se vuot 1 ty USD trong n i m 2011; t i n g trong e i c n i m tiep theo m i dinh diem len den tren 2 ty USD v i o nam 2016, trffdc khi g i i m trd lai.
Cd the thay, nhin chung no edng Viet Nam van dang trong gidi han an
toin, phin Idn e i c khoin vay nffdc ngoii cua Chfnh phu cd ky hgn d i i , l i i suit cd djnh v i ffu d i i . Hinh thffc huy ddng vdn ngiy c i n g da dgng v i linh hogt. Thd ehd chlnh sich d i n dffOe hoin thi$n, cdng t i c q u i n ly no ngiy cing tdt hon, d i n tidp c i n thdng Id qudctd.
Tuy nhidn nO nffdc ngoii cua Chfnh phu Vidt Nam ndi t r i n tfnh ra VND, hay ndi eich khie khi t r i no ddu dffoc dffa trin Ddng Vidt Nam thi ty g i i liin tgc tang l i n trong thdi gian qua rd ring ting t h i m g i n h no nffdc ngoii. Vdi sd no cua Chlnh phCi khoing trin 24 ty USD, vdi ty g i i hiin nay l i 21.000 ddng/USD, tUdng dffdng vdi 504.000 ty ddng, thi chi e i n ty g i i ting 1 % thi sd no da tang t h i m trin 5.000 ty ddng. Chi riing dot didu chlnh ty g i i ngiy 18/8/2010, vdi mffc t i n g 2,1%, thi sd no d i ting thim g i n 10.000 ty ddng.
Khdng nhffng viy, viic ddng Y i n Nhit b i n l i n g i i mgnh trong thdi gian qua cung l i m gia ting k h i Idn sd no cdng cua Viit Nam, bdi vl sd no bing Y i n Nhit chidm tdi 42% tdng nO cdng cua Viit Nam. Chi riing trong 2 n i m : 2008 - 2009, do nhffng thay ddi vd ty g i i cua ddng Yen, tdng no nffdc ngoai cua Viit Nam d i ting t h i m khoing 800 tridu USD, tffdng dffOng vdi nghia vg no nffdc ngoai cua Chinh phu v i do Chfnh phu b i o linh trong giai dogn n i y .
Trong Unh vffc no edng, nhffng tdn tgi Cd b i n dffOc ehi ra l i thj trffdng trii phidu trong nffdc phit trien cdn hgn ehd. Cdng t i c huy dOng vdn ODA cdn thg dOng, nhidu khoin vay ODA cdn g i n vdi nhffng ring budc vd n h i thiu thi cdng, n h i thiu cung ffng m i y mdc thidt bj,... l i m t i n g chi phf d i u v i o .
B i n cgnh dd, phin bd vdn vay cdn d i n trii; chu trffOng huy ddng v i sff dgng vdn c i n g i n kdt hon vdi ngffdng an t o i n no. Hiiu q u i sff dgng vdn vay chffa cao, chffa dffOc q u i n ly g i i m s i t chitche.
C i e chi tiiu no trong t i m kidm soit nhffng mdt sd rui ro thj trffdng c i n dffOc tinh toin do Iffdng chfnh x i c hon; nji ro tin dgng chffa dffOc phin i n h trong phi cho vay Igi v i phf b i o linh cQa Chfnh phu. Co ehd c i n h b i o sdm cdn hgn ehd v i quydn hgn q u i n ly cua c i e cO quan cdn chdng chio; n i n g Iffc c i n bd c i n dffOccii thidn...
De t h i y r5 tinh trgng no cdng ndi 101 TfllTdNG MAI So 05/2012
Chung v i no nffdc ngoii ndi riing xin dffa ra mdt trffdng hop cg thd l i T$p d o i n edng nghidp t i u thuj' Vidt Nam (Vinashin).
Theo thdng k i chffa d i y dO, din thing 9-2010 e i c khoin no ngin hing cua Vinashin d i l i n ddn 86.000 tl ddng vdi tidn l i i h i n g n i m khoing 10.000 ti ddng. D i y l i sdnoeua DN, nhffng d6 IS DN n h i nffdc, vdn chu sd hffu l i ciia n h i nffdc, vay nffdc ngoii do Chfnh phi b i o lanh,... n i n Chfnh phu dang ph^i t i p trung g i i i quydt. Bdi viy, tfnh ch&
np cua T i p d o i n n i y vd b i n chit l i no cdng.
Thffc hiin dd i n co c i u Igi T$p d o i n Vinashin, mOt sd DN v i mdt s6di/
i n d i dffOc chuydn cho T i p doin d^u khf Viit Nam v i Tdng cdng ty Hing hii Viit Nam d i l i m cho sd nd cua Vinashin chi cdn 76.000 ty ddng. Hai ddn vj tidp nhin 10.000 ty ddng thi tdng sd no cua DN n h i nffdc khdng thay ddi, chij no cudi cung v i n l i n h i niidc, vi d i y cung l i hai DN n h i nffdc, cbl co thay ddi chu no trffc tidp m i thdi. Ben cgnh dd no v i nghia vg t i i chfnh di/0c chuydn cho ddn vi mdi thi cung lam g i i m sd no ngin sich n h i nffdc.
Co c i u chi tidt e i c khoin nd din nay v i n chffa dffOc cdng bd. Chi biet Vinashin cd hai khoin no d i rd ring \h 750 triiu USD no nffdc ngoii th6ng qua phit hinh trii phidu qude t l do Chfnh phu b i o linh v i 600 triiu USD Vinashin tff vay nffdc ngoii. Rieng khoin no trii phidu qude te vdi lai suSt binh q u i n 7,15%/nam. thi sd lai moi n i m Vinashin phii t r i da len tdi khoing 54 tridu USD, vdi ty gii hien h i n h b i n ra cua e i c NHTM trong ni/dc tgi thdi didm n i y l i 21.000 ddng/USD, thi sd l i i tfnh ra ndi t i d i tffdng dddng t r i n 1.100 ty ddng. Cdn khoin Vinashin tff vay n i m 2007 vdi lai suat 7,15%/nim do Credit Suisse cOa Thi,iy Sy b i o linh. Khoin t r i no gdc dau tien l i 60 tridu USD d i ddn hgn ngay 20/12/2010, nhffng chffa t r i nd dU0c dang phii d i m phin vdi cie ddi tac nffdc ngoii, vdi cam ket t r i trffdc tidn lai ddn hgn. Trong nffdc, Vinashin dang vay v i no cua nhidu td chffc khie nhau.
Di n i n g cao hiiu q u i quin \)l nd cdng ndi chung v i nd nffdc ngoii cua Chfnh phu Vi#t Nam ndi riing, nhom t i e g i i bai vidt cho ring can cd cac giii
P''P'"'^ (Xem tiip trang 12}
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PHAP LUAT - AN NINH THUdNG MAI
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\.'i OOHL; iiLiho iiLi.iN o.iii!: linh \ i . iroiiL' khi liTo hrdiiL' k i c m tra, k i o m soal i h i c n \ o so In'idnj, k m h phi. phiAtiir l i e n iifjhicp vu ohua d.ip \in>i. KLMI L.inh tio. nanu kfo \ a l i i n h do o h n s c n inon nghiep Ml d 0,10 ddn \ I con h.in oho. ohifa diAfc dao lao ha 1 ban.
c h u \ on s.'in. tloi iiLin can ho 0011 lino 11 kinh i n j i n c n i I Info to I rout:
nhan h i o i . phai h i o n . kh.ii ih.io. phan lioh ihont: lin \('fi hanj: hoa
\ i p h a m . N g o a i ra. he ihong chinh sach phap l u a l vc dan i i a n h chong buon l a u . san \ u a l buon ban hang gui \ a gian lan IhiAdig mai chUa hoan i h i e n . n h i c n linh \ ifc con chong c h c o , k h o n g d o n g b p . t h i e u cu t h e . m o t so \ a n ban phap l u a l cu chifa diAfc t h a \ d o i . b o sung cho phii hdp...
Trong \ u the h o i nhap k m h le quoc l e . su" canh tranh ngas cang gas g a l se tac dong r a l nhieu d e n cac hoat d o n g thifdng m a i . san ,\uat irong nUc'Jc. C h i n h \ i \ a v . B o iru'c'lng B o C o n g Thycfng Vu H u \ H o a n g de n g h i . cac life hrifng chi'fc nang can
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ho.u h phoi hdp vdi e;ic nifdc chung b i e n gii'fi nham phoi hdpc6 h u l l ({11.1 hdn (long c(iiig lac d a u Iraiih p h o n g . chong buon l|u, h.in)' j'l.i va gian lan thifdng m a i (') khu vifc. M a t khac. candly inaiih ( oil)' i,K t n y e n t r u v e n . pho b i e n q u y dinh cua phaplu|i don i a ( ho k m h do.inh va ngif()i l i e u d i i n g . K h o n g nhifng th^, (. a( lif( hfdiig chifc nang phai t i e p tuc ra soal, nghien cu'u.sia d o i . bo sung va ban hanh c.ic van ban quy pham phap luat.ck ( h o la I \ if IV V1 pham (K- I.in de d i n vi'fi cac hanh vi toi phamttSi olmng va toi p h a m bu(')n l a u . hang g i a . gian lan thifdng mai.vSr c h u y e n lr;ii p h e p hang h()a qua b i e n gii'fi n(')i rieng cho phii hdp de tao hanh lang phap ly thuan hfi cho cac lUc li/dngchiycnJiii ihifc lln n h i e m \ u...
t ) e t r i e n khai ci'i h i e u qua cac n h i e m v u . Ban chi dao I 2 7 / ' r W dc- nghi C h i n h phii x e m xet phe duyet "Chifdng trinh (Judc gia ch(')ng biu'm l a u . hang gia va gian lan thu'dng maigiai (loan 2 0 2 0 " do B o C('mg I h i A f n g phoi h d p vcli Bo Ke hoach va D a u iif. Bo l a i chinh x a \ d i f n g . Day la c d hpi tao sif phoi help d o n g b(") giffa cac b d . n g a n h . ruing cao h i e u qua cua cong tic dau tranh c h o n g buon l a u , hiuig gia vii gian lan ihUdng mai tif Trung ifdng d e n dia phu'dng. N a n g cao ni5ng life thifc thi cho life lifdng k i e m tra. kie'in s o a l . t n i n h tinh trang c h o n g cheo. tao thanh mang k f d i rong khap. luing c.io hieu qua cua cong tacnaytif
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HA ANH
(Tiep theo trang 10)
Mot la tinh toan that can than trudc khi quyet dinh vay nuoc ngoai, ke ca phat hanh trai phieu quoc te va Chinh phu bao lanh cho DN vay nui3c ngoai. uu tien vay USD trong nude trudc, bao gom ca vay true tiep cac NH d Viet Nam va phat hanh trai phieu USD trong nude, Khi quyet dinh vay nude ngoai, tinh toan chat che lai suat vd'n vay, du bao ky Iudng xu hudng bien ddng lai suat.
l-lai la trong dam phan vay von, tinh toan chi tiet cac dieu khoan, can nhSc nhQng cam ket tranh thua thiet, bat lOi hay nhUng rui ro tiem an trong cac dieu khoan cua hiep dinh, dac biet la chi dinh nha thau, nha cung cap thiet bi may mdc, rut von, cac loai phi kem theo,...
Ba la dieu hanh ty gia on dinh tranh nhQng rui ro ty gia lam gia tang ganh
1 2 1 TMdNG MAI So 05/2012
n^ng noedng.
Bon la tinh toan chinh xac nhu cau su dung, tien dd giai ngan vdi viec vay, phat hanh trai phieu huy ddng vdn, tranh trudng hop huy ddng vdn roi, vay roi lai dem gui tien khdng ky han tai NHTM do ehua su dung den trong khi van phai tra lai cao.
Nam la can cdng khai gSn lien vdi kiem toan dam bao so no cdng thuc sU chinh xac, Bdi vi, nhu phan dau bai viet da neu, eac ngudn khac nliau thi sd lieu ve no cdng cua Viet Nam cung khdng trung khdp. Theo tinh toan cua Bo Tai chinh, nd edng len tdi 57,3% GDP. Tuy nhien, eac to chQc nUdc ngoai danh gia no cdng cua Viet Nam Idn hdn nhieu. Vi vay Viet Nam can het sQc than trong, tinh toan ky Iudng nO cdng, cd chien luoc
quan ly no cdng thuc te hdn cho c i hien nay va cac nam tdi.
Doi vdi Viet Nam. nguon vdn vaynd cua Chinh phu se van la nguon tai chinh quan trong cho dau tU phat trien nham thuc hien sU nghiep CNH HDH dat nude. Song can ludn chu trpng viecsiJ dung cd hieu q u ^ cac k h o i n vay ndva gan lien vay nd vdi on dinh tai khoa va dam bao an toan cac chi tieu. Ve dinh hudng chien ludc, de cd vdn dau tff can phai triet de huy dong vdn trong nildc nhSm giam dan von vay nd niidc ngoai.
De day manh huy dong von trong ntldc can day manh cac cdng cu thi triicing vdn trong nude phat trien manh nhiitrai phieu Chinh phu, huy dong cac thanh phan kinh te qua kenh huy dpng von nhil dau t u d o i tac cong - tLi...G
