Moi quan he giu'a tang tru'dng
kinh te, dau tu" triTc tiep nu'dc ngoai va nang lu'c canh tranh cap tmh:
Tru'dng hcfp tinh HuYig Yen
DANG QUY DCfdNG' H O A N G XOAN LAM"
DINH V A N T I E N * "
Tom tat
Nghien cffu ddnh gid mdi quan hi qua lgi giffa tdng trUdng kinh ti (GRDP), ddu tu trUc tiip nffdc ngodi (FDI) vd ndng luc cgnh tranh edp tinh (PCI) tgi tinh Hung Yin. Qua ehudi dd lieu thu thgp tff ndm 1995 din 2016, bdng phuang phdp phdn tich md Mnh VAR, kit qua cht ra GRDP vd PCI khdng dnh hudng di'n thu hut FDI. FDI cd tdc ddng tich cffe tdi PCI vd GRDP.
Bin cgnh dd, GRDP khdng anh hudng tdi PCL Tff kit qud ndy, nhdm tdc gid dUa ra mgt sd' khuyin nghi giup ndng cao sUphdt triin kinh tieua Tinh.
Tuf khda: thu hut ddu tu trt/c tiip nudc ngodi, tdng irudng kinh ti, cht sdndng Iffc canh tranh cdp tinh, tinh Hung Yin
Summary
The study evaluates the reciprocal relationship among economic growth (GRDP), foreign direct investment (FDI) and provincial competitiveness index (PCI) in Hung Yen province.
Through the data collected from 1995 to 2016, using the VAR model analysis method, the result shows that GRDP and CPI do not influence FDI attraction. FDI creates a positive impact on PCI and GRDP. In addition, GRDP has no effect on PCL From this result, the authors provide some recommendations to boost Hung Yen province's economic development.
Keywords: FDI attraction, economic growth, provincial competitiveness Index, Hung Yen province
GIOI THIEU ha'p ddn hdn khi kha nang thanh cdng cua dff an cao hPn. Dong thdi, mffc dp hd trd cua tinh vdi nhd dau tff Trong nhffng nam gan day, mdt sd' nffdc ngodi cung td't hdn so vdi cdc tmh ed ehi so'canh tinh, nhu': Bac Ninh, Hffng Ydn, Hai tranh tha'p hdn
Difdng... dffdc eoi Id khu vtfe cd tdng thu Da ed nhieu nha nghien cffu thffc hien xem xet ddnh hut ddu tff FDI nam trong nhdm thu hiit gid tdc ddng cua FDI tdi tang hxfdng kinh te', cde ke't Idn cua mien Bae. Viec ede nhd dau tff qua ddu ehi ra tde ddng tieh effc eua FDI len tdng trffdng FDI lira chpn khu vtfe dau tff xud't phat (Sunde, 2017; Adams, 2009; Meyer va Nguyen, 2005).
tiem Iffc phdt trid'n kinh te' cua vimg hay Cung ed nghidn cffu chi ra tdc ddng tieh effc cua chl so quoc gia. Cac qud'c gia dang phdt tnen CPI len thu hut FDI va tang trifdng (Nguyin Thi Cam va cd td'e dp GRDP td't se Id cd hdi cho Hie'u, 2016). Tuy nhien, ehffa ed nghien cffu nao thffc nha dau tff FDI. Ben canh do, cae nha hidn danh gia md'i quan he giffa FDI, PCI va GRDP, ddc dau tff cdn xem xet bd vd'n dffa tren biet la d Viet Nam. Do dd, tde gia thffc hien nghien effu tiem nang ciing nhff nang lu'c eanh tranh md'i quan he qua lai giffa 3 ye'u td' nay, trffdng hdp tai cua cac tmh. Khi tinh ed nang Iffc eanh tinh Hffng Yen (Bdi vie't sff dung cdch viil sd'thgp phdn ttanh cao se Iam cho nha dau ttf thd'y theo chudn qud'c ti).
TS., Trudng Dai hpc Kinh te - Dai hoc Q u d c gia Ha Noi
^^TS„ Trifdng Dai hoc Cong nghe va Q u a n ly Hffu Nghj Trifdng Dai hgc Su' pham Ky thuat Hiihg Vgn
l^gaynhdn bdi: 02/04/2019; Ngdy phdn bien: 21/04/2019; Ngdy duyet ddng: 23/04/2019
97
HINH: MO HltiH NGHIEN CCfa
CO s a LY THUYET VA PHl/ONG PHAP NGHIEN CLfU
Casdly thuyit
To ehffe Thffdng mai The gidi (^^T0| da dtfa ra dinh nghia: "'FDI xay ra khi mdt nha dau tff tff mdt nffdc (nffdc chu dau itf) cd dtfdc mdt tai san d mdt ntfde khac (ntfde fhu hut ddu ttf) cung vdi quyen quan Iy tai san dd". Phtfdng dien quan ly la thff de phan biet FDI \'di eac edng cu tai chinh khde.
Trong nghien cutf na\". tac gia dinh nghia FDI la stf di ehu}"en ^d'n. cdng nghe hodc ba't k}' tai san nao tff nffdc ngoai di dau ttf sang nffdc tiep nhan dau ttf de Ihanh lap hoac kiem soat doanh nghiep nham muc dich kinh doanh cd lai. Mpt dia phtfPng cd quy md ihi trtfdng cang ldn. se hffa hen mang lai nhieu ldi nhuan hdn.
Md'i quan he giffa FDI \'a tang trffdng kinh le' dffpe xdc dinh bdi cae md hinh tang trtfdng tdn eo dien. Md hinh nay cho i^ng. tie'n bd cdng nghe \"a Itfc Itfdng lao ddng la veu td ngoai sinh. do dd FDI lam tang mffc thu nhdp trong nffdc khi nd khdng cd idc dung dai ban len tang trffdng kinh te. Tang trffdng dai han ed the cd thdng qua sff phdt trien cdng nghe \'a dan sd; ne'u FDI anh htfdng Tich ctfe de'n cdng nghe, thi nd tae ddng len lang tttfdng kinh te (Solow. 1956). Theo ly diuye't tang trffdng ndi sinh. Sorawani va Makki (2004) chi ra. FDI thiic da'y tang trtfdng kinh te'ne'u nd tang ldi nhudn trong san xud't bang viec chuyen giao cdng nghe. Ngoai ra. Easterly vk cpng stf (1995) lap ludn r^ng. chuyen giao cdng nghe di£n ra ihdng qua 4 md hinh: chuyen giao edng nghe \^a y ttfdng mdi: nhap khau cdng nghe cao: dp dung cdng nghe nffdc ngoai va trinh dp eua ngudn nhan lu'c.
Ben eanh dd. tang tti/dng kinh te' cung dffdc cho la cd mo'i quan he dd'i vdi PCI. Chi so' PCI tdng len cho thd'y. eac > e'u to' chinh sach thu hut phat trien nhan Iffc hay stf minh bach cua tinh da diay ddi tich etfc mdt each manh me. Cac chi sd canh iranh ciia tinh dffde eai thien la ngudn lu'c td't de diffc hien trien khai chie'n iffdc. eung nhff ke hoach cua tinh de ra mpi cdch hieu qua.
Md hinh vd phuongphap nghien cdu Qua Iffdc khao cac nghien cffu di trffde. tac gia xay difii2 mo tenh nghien cffu nhff Hinh.
Trong dd:
FDI^: Ngudn vd'n dau Iff trffe tiep nffdc ngoai
PCI,: Chi sd" nang Itfc eanh tranh cap tinh
GRDP^: Tang trtfdng kinh te eila tinh Nhdm tac gia tien hanh thu thap dff heu tff Cue Thd'ng ke tinh Hiftig Yen vdi cae chi tieu trong giai doan tff nam 1990 tdi 2016. Sau khi dff Ueu dtfdc thu fliap, nhdm tac gia tie'n hanh ma hda va dffa vao phdn mem Eviews de phan tich.
Ke Ihffa cac phffdng phap da dffdc sff dung trong cac nghien efftf trffdc, sd heu dffdc phan lich bdng md hmh VAR/
VECM Iheo cac bffdc nhtf sau:
Kiim tra tinh dffng
Cdc bien nghien cffu khi chay hoi quy cln dam bao linh dffng. Chudi thdi gian cd tinh dffng la ehudi cd trung hinh, phtfPng sai. hiep phffdng sai khdng doi tai raoi thdi diem phan tram (Gurajati, 2009). De kiem dinh tinh dffng cua chudi thdi gian. nhdm tac gia sff dung kiem dinh nghiem ddn \ i (Unit Root Test) dtfa tren phtfdng phdp ADF md rgng (Gurajati. 2009). Phtfdng phap kiem dinh ADF dtfdc md ta nhff sau:
AY^ = a^+pY^^^tq,./,Y._^^e_ (1) Trong do:
A}; = r_- 7_
Y.: Chudi dff lieu theo thdi gian k: Dp dai trd
t: Xhieu trang
Nhieu tfdng la so hang chi sai so ngau nhien xua't phat tff cac gia dinh cd dienrdng nd cd gia tri trung binh bdng 0, phffdng sai la hang sd'va khdng uf tffdng quan.
Do ket qua kiem dinh ADF kha nhay vdi viec ltfa chpn cac dd Irl k, nen tieu chuan tiidng un AIC (Akaike's Information Criterion) cua Akaike (1973) ditfdng dffdc lffa chpn. Cu die', do tte k dtfdc chgn sao cho gia tri AIC la nho nha't Gid tri nay dtfdc tim mot each tii ddng khi sff dung phan mem thffc hien kiem dinh nghiem ddn vi. Cap gia thuyet kiem dinh nay la:
HO: |3=0 (Chudi Yt khdng dffng) HI: fkO (Chudi Yt la chudi dCtiig) Xdc dinh do tre tdi Uu
Quan he giffa cac bie'n kinh te' thffdng cd tde ddng tfl va can sde dinh do \i% tac dpng td'i tfu trong cac mo hinh dtfa tfen dff lieu ihtfc nghiem. Dp tre to'i utf la dp tre ma d do ede bie'n trong md hinh tac dgng qua Iai vdi nhau (khdn^ chi rd bien
98 "°J
phu thudc) cd y nghia thd'ng ke. Dp trS t6'i ffu khdng cd dinh cho mpi mdi quan he giiia cdc bid'n, trong ffdc Iffdng hdi quy, thi dd tie nay se dffdc sff dung lam gia dinh ban dau.
Kiem tra cdc md'i quan hi ddi han Trong md'i quan he giffa cde bid'n kinh te hay ed cac quan he dai ban. Bi xac dinh cdc md'i quan he dai ban giffa cac bien, kmh te' Itfdng sff dung kiem dinh Johansen vdi chi sd thong kd Trace {Gujarati, 2009). Cap gia thuyd't cua kiem dinh nay dffdc phdt bieu nhtf sau:
HO: Khdng tdn tai mdi quan he ddi ban HI: Tdn tai md'i quan he dai ban Neu ke't qua chap nhdn gia thuyet HO, tiic la khdng cd md'i quan he ddi ban.
Ngi/dc Iai, neu gia thuye't HI dtfdc ehd'p nhan, tffe Id cd quan he ddi ban giffa cac bie'n. Trong trffdng hdp tdn tai quan he dai han, thi md hinh VECM se dtfdc sff dung. Ngu'dc lai, ne'u khdng tdn tai quan he dai han, thi md hinh VAR dffdc coi Id phu hdp de' phdn tich.
KETQUA NGHIEN CU'U
Kiem dinh tinh dffng
Ket qua kid'm tfa tinh dffng d Bang 1 cho tha'y, cdc bie'n sd' FDI vd GRDP dffng d sai phdn bae nha^t, cdn PCI dffng ngay d bac 0. Do vdy, tde gia se tie'n hdnh phdn tich hfin quan tdi anh hffdng cdc bie'n dd'i vdi FDI qua bie'n sd' dffng nay.
Kiem tra quan he ddi hgn Ke't qua Bang 2 ehi ra, khdng tdn tai mdi quan hd ddi ban giffa eac bid'n, do do md hinh VAR dffdc coi la phu hdp di phan tich,
Liia chgn dg tre td'i ffu Vdi cdc bid'n dttng, tde gid tien hdnh ltfa chpn do tri tdi ffu qua chi so' AIC.
Bdng 3 cho thd'y, dp tri td'i ffu dtfde lffa chpn la dd tfl 1. Dp tre nay se dffdc tac gia sff dung cho phan tich md hinh VAR.
Phdn tich mo hinh VAfl
^Ket qua md hinh cho tffng bie'n phu thude dtfdc the' hien trong Bang 4, Theo dd, eac bie'n GRDP va PCI khdng anh hffdng tdi FDI (p-value deu Idn hdn 0.05). FDI tde ddng tieh effc tdi GRDP tinh Hffng Yen (p-value nhd hon 0.05), trong khi PCI thi khdng anh hffdng tdi GRDP (p-value Idn hdn 0.05). Nghien cffu eung nhdn thd'y, FDI cd tdc ddng ticb cffe tdi PCI, cdn GRDP khdng anh hffdng tdi PCI.
THAO LUAN VA KHUYEN NGH!
Ke't qua nghien effu chi ra, viec thu hiit FDI vao Htfng Yen tfong thdi gian qua ddc lap vdi GRDP va PCL Dtfdng nhff viee thu hut FDI vao Tinh la phu thudc vdo ede ye'u td' khde lien quan de'n thudc tinh dia phffdng nhtf cdc ehinh saeh thu hiit FDI. Vdi tdc ddng
BANG 1: KET QUA KIEM D|NH TJNH DtfNG Bi^n nghiSn ci?u
FDI GRDP
PCI
Tri sg" ADF -2.5 i 515 0.033133 -0.034470
p-vallue 0.1294 0.9507 0,6472 Saiphan bdc nhd't
FDI GRDP
PCI
-6 83444 -3,07782 -3.56749
0,0000 0,0466 0,0027
BANG 2: KET QOA KIEM TRA MOI QUAN HE DAI HAN Rank
0 I 2
Trace statistics 29 72871 12,08725 1.839444
Critical Value 5%
24,27596 12.3209 4.129906
P'value 0.0093 0.0547 0.2059
BANG 3: KET QUA XAC DINH DQ TRE TOI (Itl
Lag LogL
•13,72908 19.85873^
* indicates lag order selected by (he criterion
LR: sequential modified LR test statistic (each test at 5% level) FPE: Final prediction error
AIC: Akaike information criterion SC. Schwarz information criterion HQ: Hannan-Quinn information criterion
99
BANG 4 Coefficient
KET QUA MO HINH VAR
Std. Error t-Statistic p-value
Bien phu Ihuoc FDI DLFDI(-1) DLGRDP(-I) PCI(-l)
0.092477 -0 88046 -2.89027
0.365008 3.816296 7.478866
0.253356 -0,2307!
-0.38646
0.8027 O.82O0 0.7035 Bienphif thu§c: GRDP
DLFDI(-l) DLGRDP(-l) PCI(-!)
0-13016 -0,02994 -0.12343
0 004139 0,043275 0.084808
31.44678 -0,69173 -1.45535
0.0000 0.4975 0.1619 BiSn phu thudc: PCI
DLFDI(-l) DLGRDP(-l) PCI(-l)
0.034599 -0,21244 -0.29237
0.013412 0.131756 0,260685
2,57977 -1,61238 -1.12155
0 0184 0.1234 O2760
tich effc tff FDI len GRDP tinh Hffng Yen, ed the thay ngudn vd'n FDI vdn la kenh quan trong trong viec thue day eae boat ddng cdng nghidp, dich vu trong Tinh.
Dong thdi, tao ra nhieu cdng an vide lam cho ngffdi dan khu vtfe Tinh eung nhff dia bdn ldn can.
Cdc nhd ddu tff ntfde ngodi khdng dtfa ra quye't dinh dau ttf dtfa tren chi sd PCI ciia tinh Htfng Ydn (PCI khdng dnh htfdng tdi thu hut dau tff FDI vao Tinh). Do vdy, trong nhffng ndm gan ddy, cdc nha diu tif khdng cdn coi chi sd' PCI d Hffng Yen la chi tieu quan trong.
Ngffdc lai, FDI ed tdc ddng tich effc len PCI Htfng Yen. Thffe te', qud trinh lam viec vdi doanh nghiep nffde ngodi thdc day cd ehe' minh bach eung nhff md effa hdn, tao dieu kien hdn eho cae doanh nghiep trdn dia bdn Tinh Dong tbdi, FDI tang ldn lam cho
[Nguon- Ke't qua ILT phiin mem EViews ha tang eai thidn..., qua dd cai thien chi sd'CPi.
Cud'i eiing, nen kinh te'cua Tinh tang trffdng la tin hidu tich cffe cho nhd diu tif nffdc ngoai, nhffng khdng phai la nguyen nhan trite tie'p dan tdi vide eai thien PCL Dffa trdn ke't qua nghidn cffu, nhom tac gia cho rang, trong thdi gian tdi, tmh Hffng Yen can tie'p tue day manh thu hut ngudn vd'n FDI, ddc bidt la FDI chd't Iffdng cao. Dong thdi, sff dung hieu qua ngu6n vd'n FDI nay, qua dd thue day GRDP va phat trien cde nganh edng nghidp hd tfd, tao hidu ffng lan tda de ndng cao vi the va ndng Itfc canh tranh eda Tinh.Q
_TAI LIEU THAM KHAO __ _
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4. Blanc-Brude, F., Cookson, G., Piesse, J., Strange, R, (2014). The FDI location decision:
Distance and the effects of spatial dependence, International Business Review, 23(4), 797-810 5. Gujarati, D. N. (2009). Basic econometrics, Tata McGraw-Hill Education
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8. Sunde, T. (2017). Foreign direct investment, exports and economic growth: ADRL and causality analysis for South Africa, Research in International Business and Finance, 41, 434.444
9. WTO (1996), Annual Report 1996
