ANH HUONG CUA KHUNG HOANG TAI CHINH TOAN CAU TOI NONG NGHIEP VI^T NAM - MQT SO OANH GIA BUOC DAU
TS. CHU TIEN Q U A N G
Vl$n Nghien cdu quan ly kinh te Trung Udng
As a developing country with increasingly broader and deeper inte- gration into regional and global economy, Vietnam economy as a whole and its agricultural sector in particular have been not little affect- ed during the world crisis period.
Impacts of crisis on agricultural sector can tie seen in the following aspects: impact on agricultural growth rates; impact on exports of agri- cultural product; impact on exchange rate between VND and USD. As a result, agricultural products of Vietnam are put under fiercer compe- tition from similar products in international market; impact on domestic market (in terms of fatting prices of exporting products in domestic mar- ket; rising prices of input materials for agricultural production); impact on investment and credit for agricultural production.
Based on analyses and assessments of crisis impacts on agricultur- al production, the article below proposes several recommendations to promote agricultural production and export such as: to intensify dissem- inating information and forecast results on global as well as domestic market fluctuations; to make investigation and review of planning areas for agricultural production in all country; to improve competitiveness of agricultural products.
I. Mpt so' khai quat chung ve khung hoang tai chinh toan cau va tac dgng tdi kinh te V i f t Nam
D i i n ra tfl gifla nam 2008, cudc khung hodng tdi chfnh todn cau bat ngudn tfl My dd tdc ddng tdi nhieu iTnb vdc cua nen kinh te the gidi.
Dong thdi, cudc khung hodng lan ndy dd phan nao phan dnh sd bd't cap cua cdc hpc thuyet kinh te tdn td do, sd bd't ldc cua ban tay Nhd nddc trong viec dieu hdnh kinh te vT md vd sd le thudc ldn nhau ngdy cdng tdng gida cac nen kinh te trong mdt the gidi todn cdu hda. Cd the ndi, cdc nguyen nhan chinh ciia cuoc khung hodng bao gom: (1) Sd gia tdng cdc rui ro khdng kiem sodt dddc tren thj trfldng tai cbinh, ddng thdi, Nha nddc khdng kiem sodt dddc tfn dung dddi chud'n vao tbj trddng bd't dpng sdn; (2) Nhflng khiem khuyet, yeu kem cua he thdng ngdn hdng chu chd't tren the gidi dd d i n de'n viec mat khd ndng kiem sodt dd'i vdi cdc hieu flng dd vd; (3) Mau thuan gay gdt gifla qud trinh todn cau hda
kinh te vdi quyen ldi cua cdc tap dodn td ban, nha't la cac tap doan tdi chfnh Idn vdi muc tieu td'i da hda ldi nhudn, lung doan cdc nen kinh te.
La mpt nddc dang phdt trien hpi nhap ngay cang sau, rpng vao kinh te khu vdc va the gidi, khi cudc khung hodng nd ra, nen kinh te Viet Nam dd chju tdc ddng tieu cdc vd lap tflc rdi vdo suy gidm.
Hoat ddng xud't nhap khd'u cua Viet Nam cung chju dnh hddng khong nhd, cu the la: nhu cau nhap khd'u tai mpt so thj trddng cbu ldc bi thu hep dang ke do nhu cau tieu dung vd khd ndng thanh todn sut giam, dnh hddng tdi viec tieu thu cdc sdn pham xua't khau cua Viet Nam, ddc biet dd'i vdi mdt sd sdn pha'm cd gid trj xud't kha'u Idn nhd det may, da giay, nbda, gao, cd phe va thuy sdn...;
gid cd hdng hda vd mot so mat hang ndng, lam, thuy sdn tren pham vi todn cau gidm khien cho gid xud't khd'u cua Viet Nam cung gidm theo; ddng thdi, viec kien chdng ban phd gid, chdng trd cap cd xu hddng tdng len d cdc nddc
Sfl'53 (5.2010) THONG TIN S, Dfl BAO KINH TE - XA HQI 29
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nhap khau trddc dp ldc gidnh lai thj trddng ndi dja cho cdc doanh nghiep trong nddc vd ban cbe sdn phd'm nhap khau.
II. Anh hddng cua khung hoang tai chinh toan cau tdi nen nong nghiep Viet Nam 1. Anh hudng tdi tdc do tang trUdng
Tang trddng ndng nghiep cua nddc ta trong thdi gian qua cd the dddc coi Id mdt trong nhflng chi sd tdng hpp phan dnh chan thdc nhd't tdc dpng cua cudc khung hodng tdi chfnh toan cau de'n kinh te Viet Nam.
Theo ket qua tinh todn cua Vien Nghien cflu qudn ly kinh te Trung ddng (CIEM) tfl sd lieu cua Tdng cue Thdng ke, cd the tha'y, khu vdc ndng nghiep dd chju dnh hddng tddng dd'i ro tfl cudc khung hodng tdi chfnh toan cau, cu the la:
- Tang trddng khu vdc ndng nghiep gidm tfl 4 % ndm 2005 xudng cdn 3,8% vao nam 2007, nhdng lai tang tren 4 , 1 % dung vao ndm bat dau khung hodng 2008. Tuy nhien, trong nam 2009, tdng trddng cua khu vdc nay da gidm hdn mpt nfla (xud'ng cdn 1,8%), phdn dnh dp tre cua nhflng tdc ddng ciia cuoc khung hodng de'n khu vdc nong nghiep va mflc anh hddng nay khdng phdi Id nhd;
- Trong sd 3 ngdnh bao gdm ndng nghiep thuan (trdng trpt, chdn nudi), lam ngbiep vd thuy sdn, ngdnh thuy san chiu tac ddng nhanh vd manh nba't (nam 2008 tang trddng GDP cua nganh nay gidm tfl mflc tren 10% xud'ng cdn 5,4% va nam 2009 tiep tuc gidm xud'ng cdn 4,3%); tiep de'n Id ngdnh ndng nghiep thuan (td'c dp tdng trddng giam hdn mpt nfla vao ndm 2009); trong khi dd, nganh lam nghiep ft chiu dnh hddng cua cudc khung hodng vd gid mflc tang trddng 1,4% trong sud't 4 nam tfl 2005-2008 va tdng len mflc 3,5% trong nam 2009.
Bang 1. Tang trddng tdng san pham quoc noi (GDP) cua toan nen kinh te va cac nganh nong nghiep Dan vi: %
Nganh/lTnh vi/c
I.Tang trudng GDP toan nen kinh te 2. Toan khu vUc ndng nghiep
a. Nong nghiep thuan b. Lam nghiep c. Thuy san
Trddc khung hoang
2005 8,4 4,0 3,2 0,9 10,7
2006 8,2 3,7 3,1 1,4 7,8
2007 8,5 3,8 2,7 1,4 10,6
Trong va sau khung hoang 2008
6,2 4,1 3,9 1,4 5,4
2009 5,3
1,8 1,3 3,5 4,3
Ngudn: CIEM, Du thao bao cao Kinh te Viet Nam nam 2009.
2. Anh hudng tdi xuat khau san pham ndng nghiep
Trong nhdng nam vfla qua, nhieu mat hang ndng sdn cua Viet Nam da dddc xua't kha'u sang thj trddng nhidu nddc vdi khdi Iddng ngdy cdng tdng, chie'm thj phan ngdy cdng Idn. Mdt so mat hdng nhd gao, cd phe, tieu... da chie'm vj trf hang dau trong cdc nddc xua't kbd'u. Tuy n h i e n , trong bd'i cdnh khung hodng, xua't khau cac mat hdng ndng sdn ndi tren da cd nhflng bien ddng khdng thuan vdi cdc mflc dp khdc nhau, cu the la:
- Gao: Nam 2008, gid trj xua't kha'u gao dd tdng ga'p ddi so vdi nam 2007 (dat gan 2,9 ty USD), trong khi khdi Iddng xua't kha'u tang khdng dang ke. Dieu nay la do gid gao tren tbj trddng the gidi dd tang manh tfl cudi nam 2007 va duy tri d mflc cao trong nhflng thdng dau nam 2008'". Tuy nhien, bddc sang nam 2009, gia gao xud't kha'u dd gidm manb.
- Ca phe: Kim ngach xua't khd'u cd phe ludn dat mflc xa'p xi 2 ty USD trong cdc nam tfl 2006-2008. Tuy
Ggo 10% tdm cup Viet Npm dd tang fU 305 USD/ ta'n trpng nc3m 2007 len 590 USD/tdn vdp 6 thdng ddu ndm 2008 • tdng 94% (Ngudn: Bdp cdP thudng men npng nghiep 2008 vd trien vpng 2009 - Agrpinfc).
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THONG TIN S, Dfl BAO KINH TE - XA HOI Sa' 53 (5.2010)nhien, kim ngach xua't kha'u cd phe dd gidm khd manh trong nam 2009 mac du khdi Iddng xua't khd'u van tang do gid cd phe gidm td cudi ndm 2008 vd ddu ndm 2009.
- Cao su: Trong giai doan 2006-2008, xua't kha'u cao su dat mflc tang khd cao, dda kim ngach xud't kbd'u cao su len mdc tren 1,6 ty USD Irong nam 2008, mac dd khdi Iddng xud't khd'u cao su giam td tren 700 nghin tan xud'ng cdn tren 650 nghin tdn. Tuy nhien, trong ndm 2009, kim ngach xud't kha'u mat hdng nay da gidm manh, xud'ng cdn khodng 1,2 ty USD, trong khi khdi Iddng xud't kha'u tang tren 67 nghin td'n.
Cd the thdy, khung hodng tdi cbinb todn cau dd Idm gidm nhu cdu tieu thu vd gidm gid cdc mat hdng gao, cd phe, cao su, Idm gidm gid thu mua trong nddc va lam gidm thu nhap cua ndng dan sdn xud't nhflng mat hang ndy.
Bang 2. Xua't khau gao, ca phe, cao su, hat dieu nhan, hat tieu giai doan 2006-2009
Don vi: 1.000 tan; trieu USD
San pham 1. Gao - Khdi Idpng - Gia tri 2. Ca phe - Khdi Iddng - Gid tri 3. Cao su - Khdi Iddng - Gia trj 4. Dieu nhan - Khdi Iddng - Gia trj 5. Hat tieu - Khdi Idpng - Gia tri
2006
4.642,0 1275,9
980,9 2.117,2
703,6 1.286,4
127,7 503,9
114,8 186,5
2007
4.580,0 1490,2
1.213,1 1.916,7
715,6 1.393,8
154,7 645,1
83,0 271,5
2008
4.714,9 2894,4
1.059 2.111,2
658,3 1.603,6
165,3 911,0
90,3 311,2
2009
5.947 2.662,0
1.168 1.710
726 1.199
177 849
137 356
Ngudn: Nien giam Thdng ke nam 2008, 2009.
3. Anb hudng tdi ty gia gida ddng Viet Nam (VND) va USD Khung hodng tai chfnh dd thuc day cdc nddc Id dd'i thu xud't khau nong san cua Viet Nam nhd: Thdi Lan, Maiaixia, An Dp, Braxin, Colombia... dua nhau pha gid ddng ndi te vdi mflc gidm gid tfl 13-33%
nhdm khuyen khfch xud't kbd'u'", trong khi dd, V N D chi gidm gid khodng 5% nen san phd'm ndng sdn cua Viet Nam dd phdi chju sflc ep (anh tranh kha Idn td cac mat hang ndng sdn cung loai tren thj trddng qudc te.
4. Anh hudng tdi thi trUdng trong nUdc
a. Clam gia cac san pham xuat khau tren thi trUdng noi dia
Do xud't kha'u sut giam va gid the gidi gidm, gia tieu thu cua phan Idn cdc mat hang ndng sdn xua't khd'u tren thj trddng npi dja dd gidm manh trong quy 11/2008 nhd: gid cao su RSS2 dd gidm td mflc dinb 58 trieu VND/ta'n xud'ng cdn 30 trieu VND/ta'n; gid ca phe Robusta gidm tfl 1.903 USD/tan xud'ng cdn 1.768 USD/ta'n, lam ndn Idng ngddi sdn xud't ndng ngbiep. Theo Bd Ndng nghiep vd Phdt trie'n ndng thdn, gid cdc sdn phd'm ndng sdn gidm Id do: (1) Mpt so thj trddng nhap khd'u quan trpng nhd My, EU, Trung Qudc cd sflc tieu thu Idn nhat cac hdng hda nong sdn cua Viet Nam dd gidm cdc hop ddng nhap khd'u ndng sdn, lam cho hdng hda bj fl dpng tai thi trddng trong nddc vd cdc nha xua't kha'u phdi tfnh de'n viec tieu thu trong nddc vdi gid tha'p hon; (2) Khd nang thanh toan cua cdc ben nhap khd'u bj han che, nhieu chuyen bang bi tdn dpng d cdc cdng cija My va mdt so nddc vi cdc dd'i tac khdng md ddpc L/C, dan de'n dd thda hang nong san trong nddc, bupc gia tieu thu giam.
b. Tang gia vat til dau vao san xuat ndng nghiep
Trddc khung hoang, gia cd tren thj trddng vat td ndng nghiep cua nddc ta dao ddng thee hddng tang do chi phf san xua't cdc loai vat td
' tVlplpixip (3d g i d m gid ttl d d n g nOi tg 12,7%.
C d l d m b i p g i d m gip d d n g p ^ s d 32.9%. Thai Lpn g i d m g i d d d n g b a t h 17.2%. A n Dp g i p m gip d d n g rupi21.3%...
S3' 53 (5.2010) THONG TIN S DLf BAO KINH TE - XA HOI
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^tdng. Tuy nhien, trong ndm 2008, cudc khung hodng tdi cbfnb da
lam cho gid vat td dau vdo sdn xua't ndng nghiep tang dot bien, tao ra mpt gdnh nang Idn cbo san xud't ndng nghiep vd khien cho ngddi ndng ddn gap nhieu kbd khdn, ddc biet Id gid cua mdt so loai phan bdn nbd: phan DAP, phdn NPK...
5. Anh hudng tdi dau tU va tin dung cho san xuat ndng nghiep
a. Anh hudng tdi dau tU Khung hodng tdi cbfnb todn cau da tdc ddng tieu cdc de'n tbj trddng tieu thu ndng sdn, cu the Id: Idm gidm nang ldc tieu thu cdc sdn pha'm ndng sdn tren thj trddng qud'c te, gdy ach tac trong tieu thu, ddn de'n hieu qud kinh doanb thd'p, ban che ddng ldc dau td cung nhd viec buy ddng vd'n xa bdi dau td vdo sdn xud't ndng ngbiep.
- Diu tu cua cac doanh nghiep vao ndng nghiep, nong thdn. Cudc khung hodng da tdc ddng tieu cdc de'n sd phdt trie'n cua nhieu doanh nghiep boat ddng trong ITnh vdc ndng ngbiep:
khodng 3 0 % doanh nghiep tai kbu vdc ndng thdn phdi ngflng boat ddng, gidm dau td; vdo cudi ndm 2008 vd dau nam ndm 2009, hdn 8 0 % cdc lang nghe phdi gidm sdn xua't va khodng 5 trieu
"' Cd nhidu nguyen nhdn ddn den viec ndng ddn khe tiep cqn chfnh sdch hd trp Idi sudt CUP Chinh phu nhU: dip bdn ndng thdn rpng Idn, sd lupng khdch hdng ddng, mdn vpy nhp, ndng ddn khdng cd tdi sdn the chdp: sp iUPng vd mpt dp phdn bp cdc tc chdc tin dung qud it, nhieu quy tin dung nhdn ddn khdng dUac gipp thUc hipn chp vpy ho trp idi sud't; ngdn hdng chldUpc chp vpy vd'n ddu tu sdn xud't, kinh doanh, khang chp voy tieu dung; quy dinh thdi hgn cha vpy ngdn trong khi ndng ddn cdn voy vd'n dpi hqn de ddu tu sdn xudt (nhu mua trdu, ba, ipn, xdy chudng trpi, ddo oo thd c d , cdi tqp vUdn, trdng cdy Idu npm, ddu tu cO sd che bien)...
lao ddng cua cdc Idng nghe phdi tam thdi nghi viec. Tbeo H i e p bdi cdc doanh nghiep vfla vd nbd Viet Nam, tdc ddng cua cudc khung hodng da lam phan hda cdc doanh ngbiep tbanb 3 nhdm: 2 0 % sd doanh ngbiep bj tdc ddng manb bdi cudc khung hodng va dang gap rat nhieu khd khdn, bj phd sdn bode dflng trddc nguy cd phd sdn; 6 0 % doanh nghiep trong tinb trang kbd khan, sdn xua't, kinh doanb bi dinh tre, khdng kiem sodt dddc cbi phf sdn xud't, ma't tbj trddng, khdng du vd'n de duy tri sdn xua't...; cbi khodng 2 0 % doanb ngbiep ft bi tdc ddng, v i n cd cd hdi phdt trie'n.
- Dau tu cua cac doanh nghiep cd vdn diu tU nUdc ngoai (FDI) vao ndng nghiep. Trong nhflng ndm trddc khung hodng, FDI vdo ndng nghiep vd'n dd ra't thd'p vd trong giai doan khung hodng nd ra, ddng vd'n FDI vdo ndng ngbiep tiep tuc sut g i d m : ty trpng cua FDI vao ndng ngbiep trong tdng vd'n FDI dang ky dd gidm tfl mflc 1 , 4 1 % nam 2006 xud'ng cdn 0,35% nam 2008 va 0 , 4 % vao nam 2009.
b. Tin dung cua Nha nUdc dd'i vdi san xuat ndng nghiep. 0 Viet Nam, tfn dung cho sdn xud't ndng ngbiep trong nhieu nam qua chu yeu dda vao kenh cho vay cua Ngdn bang Ndng ngbiep vd Phdt trie'n ndng thdn. Tuy nhien, viec cho vay chda ddp flng dddc nbu cau vay vd'n cua ndng dan va nhflng tdc nhan boat ddng trong ndng ngbiep, hoac cd lien quan tdi ndng ngbiep. Sfl tham gia cua cdc ngdn hdng thddng mai (NHTM) khac vdo tfn dung ndng ngbiep cung khdng nhieu, do dd, ndng dan ludn thie'u vd'n de dau td.
Trddc tdc ddng cua cudc khung hodng tai chfnh todn cau de'n ITnh vdc tfn dung, Tbu tddng Cbfnb pbu da ban banb Quye't djnh so 1 31/QD-TTg ngdy 23/01/2009 ve bd trd ldi sua't cho cdc td chflc, cd nhdn vay vd'n ngdn bdng de sdn xud't, kinh doanb. Tuy nhien, dang IdU y Id tien cho ndng dan vay vd'n tfl chddng trinb nay c h i chie'm ty trpng rat nbd, khodng 3% tdng so tien cdc N H T M va td chflc tfn dung da gidi ngdn.
Trong bd'i cdnh dd, Thu tddng Cbinh pbu da ra Quye't djnh sd 497/QD-TTg ngay 1 7/4/2009. Tbeo d d , Cbinh phu se hd trd Idi sud't de ndng dan vay vd'n cua cdc td chflc tfn dung dau td mua sam thiet bj, vat tdsdn xua't vd xay nhd d. Dieu ndy da khien ngddi ndng dan pba'n khdi, tuy nhien trong qua trinh trien khai cdn xua't hien nhieu vfldng mac ve tbu tuc ma ndng dan khd hodc khdng the vddt qua, nen ra't it ndng dan tiep can dddc ngudn vd'n ndy"".
I I I . M g t so giai phap han che anh hUofng tieu ci/c cua khiing hoang tai chinh toan cau tdi nong n g h i f p V i f t Nam
Tren cd sd phdn tfch nhflng dnh hddng tieu cdc cua cudc khung boang tdi sdn xud't, xud't kba'u va tieu tbu ndi dja cdc sdn phd'm ndng nghiep va tbu'c ti§n thdi gian qua, tdc gid xin dda ra mdt sd giai phdp sau:
/ . Giai phap ddi vdi ngUdi san xua't ndng nghiep
Thu nhat, trien khai rgng va thudng xuyen cac chuang trinh thdng
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THONG TIN & Dfl BAO KINH TE - XA HOI SO 53 (5.2010)tin, du bao khach quan ve nhdng bien ddng cua thi trudng ndng san toan cau va nhUng thi trudng ndng san ma Viet Nam cd tham gia, phd bien tdi ndng dan va doanh nghiep tai cac vung ndng nghiep hang hda tap trung. Dieu ndy se giup ngddi nong ddn va doanh nghiep sdn xua't ndng nghiep nhdn biet trddc nhOng nguy cd cd the xdy ra trong qud trinh san xud't vd tieu tbu sdn pha'm de cd quye't dinh trddc mdi vu sdn xua't. De thdc bien td't gidi phdp nay, can cd sd phd'i hdp gifla cdc cd quan qudn ly nba nddc, cdc hiep hdi nganh hdng ndng sdn Viet Nam trong viec xay ddng cdc chddng trinb thong tin that cu the tdi tflng khu vdc sdn xud't vd nam bat y kien phdn hdi cua ndng dan va cdc doanh nghiep. Dong thdi, can cd sd hd trd tfl ngdn sdch nha nddc (100% kinh phf) de trien khai cdc cdng viec nay.
Thu hai, tien hanh dieu tra, ra soat va xac dinh lai quy hoach vung san pham ndng nghiep trong ca nUdc. Day can dddc xem Id gidi phdp cd bdn de trien khai cd ket qud cdc gidi phdp khdc. Hien nay, ket qud thdng ke ve nang sud't, chat Iddng cdc sdn phd'm ndng nghiep tren mdi vung vd cd nddc la chda day du, vl vdy chda trd Idi dddc cdu hdi: d mflc ndng sud't ndo trd len tbi ngddi ndng dan se cd tbu nhap td'i du, du sdng vd cd the dau td phdt trien lau dai. Ket qud dieu tra, ra sodt con la cd sd de Cbfnb phu dieu cbinb quy hoach phdt trien cdc sdn phd'm ndng ngbiep theo vung trong cd nddc trong dai ban, cu the hda cdc dien tfch da't td'i da danh cho phdt trien tflng loai cay trdng d tflng tinh.
Thu ba, tien hanh loai bd nhanh cac dien tich cay trong gia cdi, chat luang xau va nhUng dien tich khdng phu hdp vdi dieu kien tU nhien, khdng the cho nang suat cao, chat lUdng phij hgp nhu cau thi trudng. Trong nhdng nam vfla qua, chfnh sdch ndng nghiep dd hddng manh vdo khuyen kbfcb, tbuc da'y md rdng dien tfch gieo trdng, theo do, da dat dddc nhieu thdnh tfch ve gia tang dien tfch trong trpt vd kho'i
Idpng hien vat. Tuy nhien, trong cdng tac thdng ke, ngdnh thdng ke ndng nghiep mdi chu yeu liet ke sd' lieu nhdng chi tieu hien vat md bd qua ddnh gid ve gid trj sdn xua't, gia trj gia tang (GTGT) tao ra tren moi dien tfch trdng trpt, ch^n nudi nen chda hd trp hflu hieu cho viec phan tfch hieu qua san xud't.
Ngdnh ndng nghiep Viet Nam chda tfnh todn hieu qud cudi cung vd chda tfnh de'n nhdng tdc dpng xau cua thi trddng; viec gia tang sdn xud't, chpn gidng, chpn ndi trdng, ndi chdn nudi cdn khd tuy t i e n . Ddng thdi, trong nhieu trddng bdp, cdc chddng trinh muc tieu do Cbfnb phu khdi xddng ve phdt trie'n ndng nghiep cdn mang ndng tfnh chd't gidi ngdn vd'n ngdn sdch dd dddc phe duyet, bd qua cdc dieu kien nghiem ngdt ve ddi hdi sinh hpc cua cay trdng, vat nuoi.
Do dd, trong dieu kien mdi cua thi trddng nong nghiep, Chfnh pbu can chi dao cdc ngdnh lien quan xdc djnh lai muc tieu phdt trie'n ndng nghiep gan vdi bien ddng thj trddng, phong ngda rui ro, that bai cua thj trddng de cd bien phdp dn djnh sdn xua't, hddng tdi ndng nghiep chd't Iddng cao.
Thd tu, thuc hien chinh sach nang cao nang lUc canh tranh cua san pham ndng nghiep, cu the la:
+ Chfnh sdch da't ndng nghiep can hddng tdi viec hinh thanh vung sdn xuat cd quy mo tdi du dd'i vdi mdi hp ndng dan vd trang trai;
-I- Chfnh sdch dau td vd tfn dung: can tiep tuc tdng vdn ngan
S6' 53 (5.2010) THONG TIN & Dfl BAO KINH TE • XA HOI 33
DIEN DAN TRAG DGI
^sdch dau td vao ha tang cd bdn cho cac vung ndng nghiep tap trung, cd san Iddng hdng hda cao, ddp dng yeu cau cua sdn xud't hang hda hien dai (dddng giao thdng, he thdng xfl ly sau thu hoach vd che bien, bdo qudn ndng san hang hda); tap trung vd'n cho vay vao cdc vung n d n g ngbiep nham dinh hddng cdc dfl an dau td cua ndng dan vd cac doanh nghiep theo d u n g quy hoach, dap flng nhu cau sdn xua't hdng hda, ddm bdo cdc khodn tfn dung cua ngan bang cbo bd ndng dan, trang trai va doanb ngbiep vay phdi hddng tdi viec thdc hien quy hoach sdn xud't ndng nghiep dd phe duyet; ket bdp chat cbe gifla quy hoach cac vung ndng ngbiep vdi cbo vay cua cac ngan hdng vd td chflc tfn dung ndng nghiep; chi dao Ngan bang Nba nddc hddng ddn vd td chflc trien khai phu hdp hdn viec cbo vay vd'n ho trd Idi sud't theo Quye't djnh 497/QD-TTg, ddm bdo pbu hdp vdi tfnh cba't sinh bpc cua sdn xud't ndng ngbiep vd dien bien thdc te cua thj trddng cdc loai vdt td, td lieu dau vao.
-I- Chinh sdch tbj trddng va tieu thu ndng sdn: can tiep tuc cd gidi phdp hd trd, thuc da'y viec ky ket hdp ddng gifla cdc cbu the trong cdc khdu tfl cung flng dau vdo, trdc tiep sdn xud't ndng ngbiep den thu mua, che bien de trd thdnh cdc chudi ndng san ben vflng; cung cap thdng tin thj trddng, gid cd kip thdi (tbeo tuan va thdng) cho cdc vung sdn xua't ndng nghiep; xdy dflng be thdng chd dau mdi va chd ndng thdn; hd
trd midn phf xuc tien thddng mai vd lai sua't tin dung vay mua tam trfl hdng hda; nghien cflu cbfnb sdch bdo hiem ndng ngbiep, trddc het la bdo hiem ndng sdn xua't kba'u.
2. Giai phap ddi vdi hoat dong che bien va tieu thu ndng san Mot la, tidu chuan hda cac boat ddng che bid'n ndng san. Gidi phap nay can xua't phdt tfl tfnh chat ddc tbu cua sdn xua't ndng ngbiep, dd la phdi gan vdi che bien de tang nang Iflc canh tranh vd GTGT. H i e n nay, hai khau nay v i n tdch rdi nhau va tbj trddng chda Idm dddc chflc ndng la sdi day ket nd'i. Tbeo d d , cudc khung hodng xdy ra dd khoet sau t h e m nhflng bat cap trong md'i quan he ndy vd Idm ndy sinh flnh trang tranh mua nguyen lieu, mua bdn khdng minh b a c h , ddn de'n bau qud Id cd ndng dan va cdc cd sd cbe bien deu rdi vdo thua thiet'"'.
Do dd, can tap trung tbuc da'y dau td, nang cap trang thiet bj che bien ndng sdn. Ngdnh cdng ngbiep cbe bien Viet Nam can tan dung cd bdi do cupc khung boang mang lai de ddi mdi cdng nghe thdng qua viec mua lai cdng nghe cua cdc nddc tien tien khi nhflng doanh nghiep ndy khdng tru dddc trong khung hodng; Nba nddc can sdm dda ra cac tieu chud'n ve nhd xddng, thiet b j , dieu kien ve sinh cdng nghiep, an toan thflc pha'm va bdo ve mdi trddng de cdc nba cbe bien thdc hien, ddng thdi quy djnh cdc cbe tdi du bieu Iflc ngdn chan cdc hdnh vi vi pham; yeu cau cac doanb ngbiep va cd sd che bien phai xdy ddng vd kiem sodt dddc vung nguyen lieu cua minh trong qud trinh sdn xua't, kinh doanb; ddng thdi, de ket nd'i dddc vdi npng ddn, cdc cd sd che bien phdi cd cd che qdan be lau dai vdi cac bd va trang trai sdn xua't nguyen lieu tren tflng vung cu the, tfl dd xdy ddng vung nguyen lieu va thdc bien phdn chia thda ddng ldi fch gifla ca 3 khdu chfnh la: sdn xudt nguyen lieu, che bien va tieu thu sdn pham Idm ra.
Hai la, giai phap ddi vdi cac dich vu thi trudng ndng san, cu the la: md rdng hoat ddng va binh thflc xuc tien, qudng bd thddng hieu san pha'm ndng ngbiep. Cdc doanh ngbiep ndng ngbiep Viet Nam can quan tam tdi cdng tac quang cdo, gidi thieu sdn pha'm va chdm sdc khach hang de gifl dddc khdch hang ngay cd trong thdi gian xdy ra khung hodng; khang djnh ngudn gdc hang bda ndng sdn, cdc hiep hdi ngdnh hang can giup tbanb vien cua minh dda ra tbj trddng cac sdn pha'm co ngudn gdc, thddng bieu, bao bi hdp ve sinh, kien quye't khdng dda ra thj trddng nhflng sdn phd'm kem chd't Iddng, khdng ddm bdo ve sinh an todn thdc pha'm, dnh hddng xa'u tdi sflc kho§ ngddi tieu dung vd uy tfn cua ngdnh; kiem sodt chat cbe va xfl ly triet de cdc sdn phd'm khdng dat tieu chua'n ve cba't Iddng, ve sinh an toan IdU thdng tren tbi trddng.
'•" Thep Hipp hpi che Vl#t Nam, vung nguydn II0u chg Phu Thp cd di$n tich sdn xudt Id 4.800 hp vdi spn IUPng 30.700 tpn che bup dc cdng ty che Phu Bdn thUc hipn bPP tieu vd che bien tU nhidu ndm quq. Tuy nhien, trcng vdi ndm gdn ddy, dd xudt hipn 49 c d sd che bien mdi vdi tpng cdng sudt ldn dd'n 544 t(Sn/ngdy, vUdt qud khd ndng cung cdp cua vung nguydn lieu, tCr dd xdy ro tinh trpng tranh chdp quyet lipt vi nguydn lieu gida cdc ca sd che bid'n trpng vung.
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THONG TIN & Dfl BAO KINH TE - XA HOI So 53 (5.2010)Cd the ndi, dnh hddng cua cupc khung hodng tdi cbfnb todn cau tdi ndng nghiep Viet Nam Id tieu cdc, nhdng mflc dp chda Idn do Viet Nam chda tham gia sau vao cdc chudi gid trj nong sdn toan cau. Tuy nhien, mpt nhddc diem Idn cua ngdnh nong ngbiep Viet Nam la: phan Idn ndng sdn cua Viet Nam dddc bdn ra tbj trddng d dang nguyen lieu thd, GTGT thd'p, khd nang len. Tbeo do, trong thdi gian t d i , Viet Nam can thay ddi chien Iddc xud't khd'u ndng sdn tfl xudt khau nguyen lieu sang xua't kha'u thanh phd'm che bien sfl dung cdng nghe hien dai nham tham gia sau hdn vdo chudi gia tri ndng sdn todn cau, thu dddc GTGT Idn hdn tfl chudi nay.
Cdc gidi phdp kien nghj tren day chu yeu Id cdc gidi phdp mang tfnh ddi ban nham tao ra ndng ldc canh tranh cao hdn, k h i c phuc nhflng tdc ddng tieu cdc cua thj trddng vd nhflng rui ro khd dd bdo trddc. Tuy nhien, day la nhflng gidi phdp cd bdn de ndng nghiep Viet Nam phdt trie'n ben vflng hdn trong lau ddi, nen can dudc trie'n khai sdm. Trddc mdt, de giup ndng ddn khac pbuc nhflng tdc ddng xdu cua cudc khung hodng, Nhd nddc can cd bien phap md rdng vd nang cao hieu qud cua nhieu chfnh sdch nhd: cho ndng ddn vay tfn dung ddi han hdn, lai sua't dd ddi hdn de hp cd tien tieu dung vd quan trpng hdn Id tiep tuc dau t d md rpng vd phdt trien sdn xua't, nha't Id dd'i vdi nhflng hd cdn ngheo, tfch luy chda du de trang trdi nhu c l u cuQC sdng hien nay.D
THE G I 6 I DO! PHO KHUNG HOANG N 0 TOAN C A U
Sau thdi ky suy thoai mgnh nhdt v a o cuoi nam 2008, d a u nam 2009, nen kinh te the gidi dddc nhgn dinh d d bddc qua d d y khung hodng tdi chfnh vd suy thodi kinh t e , di v d o thdi ky phuc hoi vd tdng trudng trd Igi. Tuy nhien, khi c u o c khung hodng chda qua di, mpt mdi lo nggi mdi ddi vdi nen kinh te the gidi dang d d n Id di^n, d d Id nguy c d xdy ra "mot c u p c khung hodng ng" tren q u y md todn c d u .
Trong thdi gian g d n d d y , the gidi dang theo ddi sdt sao flnh hinh khung hodng nd tgi Hy Lgp vd d i i n bien khung hodng nd c u a nddc ndy d d t d c dgng khdng nho tdi khdng chi nen kinh te chdu A u ndi rieng md c d n d e n nhieu khu vdc khdc tren the gidi, g d y t d m ly b d t an trong gidi d d J t u vd b d o hieu trien vpng khdng m d y sdng sua c u a kinh te the gidi. Dong thdi, theo ddnh gid c u a n h i i u t d chdc qudc t e , flnh hinh nd c u a nhieu qudc gia dang d m d c b d o d g n g , c d nguy c d g d y ra nhQng b d t dn vT md trong nddc cung nhd c d the t g o ra hi^u dng Ion truyen dnh hddng d e n nhieu nddc tren the gidi. Sou d d y Id thdng ke ve tinh hinh ng c u e mgt sd qudc gia/khu vdc;
- Hi^n nay, tdng gid trj ng c u a khu vdc sfl d y n g dong Euro d d chiem d e n 84% tdng sdn phdm qudc ngi (GDP) c u a khdi, c a o hdn so vdi c o n sd 78% GDP c u a ndm 2009.
- Tinh hinh nd tgi nhieu nen kinh te Idn khdc c u n g rdt d d n g lo nggi:
tdng nd c u a Nhgt Bdn chiem tdi 229% GDP (sd li^u cdng b d ngdy 10/5/2010) vd c d xu hddng tiep tuc tdng trong 5 ndm tdi; My flep t p c Id c o n ng Idn nhdt the gidi vdi tdng sd ng len tdi 13.000 ty USD, chiem khodng 93% GDP; tfnh d e n cudi ndm 2009, tdng gid trj ng cdng c u a Trung Qudc Id 15.700 ty Nhdn d d n t^, chiem 48% GDP; tinh hinh ng cdng tgi An Dg cOng d m d c b d o dgng, ty 1^ ng so vdi GDP ndm 2009 d d len tdi 88,9%... Theo Tgp chf The Economist, tinh tdi thdng 2/2010, tdng gid tri nd c u a tdt c d c d c nddc tren the gidi d d vdgt qua mdc 36.000 ty USD.
Thdc te tren cho thdy nhieu nddc c d the se rdi v d o khung hodng nd gid'ng nhd Hy Lgp, t g o ra nhdng b d t dn Idn ve kinh te - xd hgi. Ngay t d b d y gid, nhieu nddc dang phdi flm kiem nhdng bi#n phdp de ddi phd, c u the Id: cdng b d ke hogch c d t gidm ng vd thdm hgt ngdn sdch; ddng c d c gdi kfch thich kinh te trong thdi gian tdi d e gidm thdm hut ngdn sdch; c d t gidm chi tieu, tdng thue, vd dieu chfnh c d c khodn flen trd c d p hdu bdng vd sdc khoe de gidm nd trong c d c ndm sou.
Tuy nhien, ddi vdi nhieu nddc phdt trien vd d g c bigt Id nhdng nude dang phdt trien, nhdng bi^n phdp ndy se rdt khd thdc hi^n do c d c nddc vdn phdi tdng cddng chi tieu nhdm kich thich kinh t e , d d m b d o an sinh xd hgi, trong khi thu ngdn sdch d d b d o se g g p khd khdn do kinh te hdi phuc chda vdng chdc. Dieu ndy khien muc tieu c d n bdng ngdn sdch trd thdnh mgt nhigm vu khd khdn hdn, trd khi c d c chinh phu d d a ra c d c bi^n phdp dng phd kip thdi de sda chda vd binh dn flnh hinh tdi chinh. •
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So 53 (5.2010) THONG TIN & DU BAO KINH TE - XA HQI
