XAY DUNG CHI TIEU GIAM SAT TAI CHiNH CHO VIET NAM

hihig khoan

HOI NHAP KINH TE Q u 6 c TE

XAY DUNG CHI TIEU GIAM SAT TAI CHiNH CHO VIET NAM

TS. V6 TRI

T H A

TS. L E X U A N S A N G ,

TRAN

M I N H H A N H

NH, I

4

Dua tren each tiep can giam sat hop nhat

(Tiep theo ky triT&c)

1.2. Gidm sdt an todn vi md

Br3 cdc chi ti^u gidm sdt an todn vi m6

Den nay, tren the gidi van chtta CO mpt khung kho phan tich diroc chap thuan rong rai vo bp cac chi tieu giam sat an toan vi mo va an toan vi mo, dac biet la so lupng va cac chi tieu. Mpt so td chiic qudc te/qudc gia va mpt sd nha nghien cmi da de xuat cac bp chi tieu cua rieng minh.^

Van de cdt loi trong liia chpn cac chi tieu giam sat tai chinh (GSTC) la phai xac dinh cac chuan muc tham chieu, canh bao nii ro, ngiiomg canh bao nii ro/khiing hoang cho tiing chi tieu. Theo kinh nghiem qudc te, cac ngudng tham chieu cd the dupc xac dinh dua tren mpt hay mpt sd cof sor nhu sau: (i) Miic trung binh ciia chi tieu trudc va sau, nhat la ngay trudc khi xay ra khiing hoang; (ii) Cac chuan muc an toan dupfc sii dimg d mpt sd nudc cd dieu kien kinh te - tai chinh tUdng ddng hay bdi cac dinh che tai chinh; (iii) Tri gia trung binh ciia mpt chi tieu ciia nhdm nudc tudng tu, song cd he thong tai chinh lanh manh (tUdng ddi phd bien); (iv) Diem ''phat nd" khiing hoang trong

Difn nflm 2011,Vl^t Nam diing 6 tf)(/ hgng

50/60 m c 1 phdt trlS'n.

A'nh ST

qua khii; va (v) Cac ngudng dU(JC xay dung tii cac mo hinh kinh te lupfng, thdng ke (vi du: Mo hinh canh bao sdm khiing hoang (Early Warning System EWS), Mo hinh kiem tra kha n^ng chiu dung cac cii sdc tai chinh - tien te (Stress Test - ST). He thdng cac chi tieu GSTC vi mo va vi md vdi mpt sd ngudng tham chieu va canh bao (mang tinh khuyen cao hoSc bat bupc) dupc tdng hgfp trong Bang 2.

Cdc tn6 binh dinh lu^g pbifc tm gi&m sdt tbf tntdng tdi

cbinb

Mo hinh kiem tra kha nang chiu diing cac cu s6c tai chinh - tien te (ST)

Trong khung khd ph&a tich khu vuc tai chinh, ST (he thdng va danh muc dau tu) thudng dudc sii dung. ST dudc hieu la tap hgfp cac ky thuat dugfc sii

dung de danh gia miic dp tdn thudng ciia nhdm cac td chiic tai chinh hoac ciia toan bp he thdng tai chinh trudc cac tinh hudng bat thudng cd the xay ra nhu cac cii sdc ve ty gia, lai suait va thanh khoan.

ST he thdng cd im diem la cung cap thong tin ve tac dpng tdng hdp ciia cac cii sdc cung nhu phan phdi tac dpng ciia cii sdc trong toan bp he thdng. Cac thdng tin nay giiip cac nha quan ly, giam sat hieu dudc tac dpng lan toa va tac dpng niem tin ddi vdi tinh dn dinh ciia he thdng.

Trong trudng hpfp sd Ueu cho phep, viec thuc hien ST toan bp he thdng va ddi vdi tiing td chiic tai chinh se cung cap thdng tin day dii nhat cd the ve miic dp tdn thuong ciia he thdhg tai chinh.

Thong tin tii ST he thdng cung giiip xac dinh diem yeu trong thu

42

CHIJNG KHOAN VIET NAM So 161 Thang 3/2012

HOI NHAP KiNH TE QUOC TE

iiUng khoan

thap sd lieu, he thdng bao cao va quan ly n i i ro. Viec thuc hien toan bp quy trinh cung giiip cd | quan giam sat va cac td chiic lien quan t a n g kien thiic ve quan ly nii ro cung n h u thiic day su hcifp tac va hieu biet rong hdn ve n i i ro. Dieu nay tiep den c6 the tang cudng hieu biet ve su lien ket giUa k h u vUc tai chinh va kinh te vi mo. Tuy nhien, ST he thdng Cling CO mpt sd thach thiic ve phudng phap luan. Luu y la trong cac mo hinh ST cac bien sd - cac chi tieu tai chinh ciing dupt dem vao sii dung, vdi cac ngudng

"phat nd" (miic dp gay sdc) dudc thii nghiem khac nhau.

Mo hinh canh bao s&m khdng hoang (EWS)

EWS la mo hinh dinh lupfng CO the dua r a cac tin hieu canh bao khiing hoang tai chinh (chii yeu la khiing hoang tien te, ngan hang) vdi viec thiet lap cac "diem phat nd" khiing hoang.^ EWS c6 the sii dung mpt sd mo hinh khac n h a u n h u mo hinh phi t h a m sd, mo hinh t h a m sd^ de du bao ve ' k h a nang xay r a khiing hoang.

Mo hinh phi t h a m so dupfc xay dung dua tren cac cac chi tieu j tdng hpfp vdi viec xay dung cac ngudng phat nd khiing hoang de du doan xac suait xay r a khiing hoang. Mo hinh t h a m sd nhSm udc lupfng xac suait xay r a khiing hoang tai chinh bang each sii d u n g cac phuofng p h a p dinh lugfng.

Ndi chung, dp chinh xac ciia du bao khiing hoang tiiy thupc nhieu vao chait lupfng sd lieu, dac biet la viec xac dinh cac ngudng

"phat nd"; neii ngudng phat nd dupfc dat r a qua t h a p thi cd the d i n deh p h a n iing chinh sach qua sdm trong khi khiing hoang

cd the chua hoac khong xay ra;

ngudc lai, ngudng qua cao thi khiing hoang da xay ra song van chua dupfc canh bao. Tudng t u mo hinh ST, trong cac mo hinh EWS, cac chi tieu tai chinh kinh te va cac ngudng phat nd Cling dupt dua vao.

M^t s6 vdn di U&n quan tai xdy dung va Ap dung b6 cdc chi tieu

Cac chi tieu GSTC, vdi cac miic dp khac nhau, da dudc sii dung tUdng ddi rong rai tren the gidi, gdp phan dang ke trong giam sat va quan ly thi trudng tai chinh (TTTC) tren the gidi.

Tuy nhien, khi xay dung cac ngudng an toan/canh bao va van dung cac chi tieu, mo hinh kinh te lucifng tai tiing qudc gia can quan t a m diing miic tdi nhiing kho khan, bat cap va han che dudi day:

Mot la, tuy cac ngudng neu tren c6 y nghia nhait dinh trong so sanh, canh bao cho cac nudc trong qua trinh dieu h a n h kinh te vi mo ciia minh, song cac co quan quan ly, GSTC khong nen qua tin dung cac chi tieu nay trong dieu hanh, giam sat kinh te - tai chinh ciia minh, ciing n h u qua lo ngai khi cac ngudng nay bi pha vd.^

Hai la, van con mpt sd yeii td anh hudng tdi viec ap dung va canh bao cac chi tieu c6 lien quan tdi chuan muc an toan, chuan muc thdng ke, hgfp nhat, thu thap dii heu. Viec nhan dang va t h u thap cac caiii t h a n h can thiet de giam sat an toan vi mo cd the gap khd khan.

Ba la, van cdn nhiing quan ngai ve sd lieu can thiet cho tiep can an toan vi mo bao gdm su cham t r e , khong chinh xac.

khong day dii ciia cac dU lieu thu thap dudc. Nhiing nguyen nhan chii chdt ciia cac quan ngai nay bao gdm: (i) Co nhieu dinh che lan cd sd dii lieu; (ii) Mpt sd chi tieu khong s&n c6 hoac khong the ap dung dudc; (iii) Khong the so sanh dupc mpt sd chi tieu theo thdi gian do su khuyet thieu hoac thay ddi cac chuan muc ke toan va an toan; (iv) Thieu minh bach va c6 nhiing vain de trong cong khai sd lieu; va (v) Su phan hdi cham tre, khong day dii, thieu chinh xac ciia cac cd quan, td chiic tham gia.

2. Xdy dung vd dp dung cdc chi ti6u GSTC cho Vi^t Nam

2.1. Thuc trang thi truong vd giant sdt thi tntdng tai chinh

Sau gan hai thap nien hinh t h a n h va phat trien, TTTC Viet Nam da dat dupc mpt sd t h a n h tuu n h a t dinh. Ve cd ban, Viet Nam da c6 phan Idn cac thi trudng bp phan, dinh che tai chinh va trong chiing muc it hofn la cac cong cu tai chinh. Xet theo trinh dp phat trien tai chinh, theo Dien dan JCinh te The gidi (WEF), trong nam 2009, Viet Nam diing d thii h a n g 45/55 TTTC phat trien chii yeii ciia the gidi dupc xep hang; nhung den nam 2011, Viet Nam diing d thii h a n g 50/60 TTTC phat trien.

Luu y la cac thi trudng cau t h a n h ciia Viet Nam phat trien d trinh dp trung binh tren the gidi, rieng thi trudng chiing khoan, bao gdm thi trudng cd phieu va trai phieu (chinh phii, cong ty) con d dudi miic t r u n g binh. Tuy vay, he thdng tin dung ngan h a n g Viet Niam da phat trien tUdng ddi nhguih ve lupfng. iEQiu vuc nay dong vai tro t r u n g gian

43

5o 767 Thang 3/2012 CHUNG KHOAN VIETNAM

hung khodn

mmmm HOI NHAP KINH TE Q u 6 c TE

1 ^ Bang 2: Cac ngirong canh bao doi vol mot so chi tieu GSTC

TT ^{T§n chi}

tieu

Ngudng/chudn mvtc

' 3% GDP dai v « cdc nirtc phdt triSn (Hi^p d|nh dn dinh vd Tflng trutag ciia EU).

* 5% d6i vdi cdc nudc dang phdi tri§n.

Ngu6n Ghi chii

Thdm hut cdn cdn vdng lai

Deutsche Bank Research (DBR) (2011)'

Cd quy tdc don gidn: muc thdm hut cdn cdn vdng lai phdi b&ng 0,6 Idn tdng trudng GDP danh nghia {it EU)

Dutrii ngoQi hdi

' Luung du trU ngoai hdi tdi uu n§n tuong duong gid tri 6 thdng nhdp kh(fu, tdi thi§u phdi luong duong gtd In 3 thdng nhdp khdu.

' Ty 16 gitta du tru ngoai hdi vd miic cung ti^n 1$ M2 lir 10% ddn 20% duuc coi Id du du trU ngogi hdi.

IMF (1998)' Ty 1$ gi&a Dv trir ngoqi hdi vd Miic cung tiin t$ M2 cho thdy khd ndng can thi^p ty gid hdi dodi cua Ng&n hdng Trung uung.

No cdng vd nQ'nudc ngodi duuc Chinh phu bdo Idnh

' NguOng chung cua IMF (ddi vdi nu cdng vd n<f nudc ngodi duuc Chinh phu bdo Idnh):

Gid In hijn toi (PV) ciia ngcdng khdng vupl qud 50% GDP, 200% gid In xudt khdu, 300% gia In thu NSNN,

Gm tri tra ldi (phuc vu n?) khdng qud 25% gid In xud't khdu, 35% thu NSNN.

' No cdng khdng qud 60% GDP (theo Hl«p udc Maathrlx giUu cdc nudc EU).

' Khdng qud 40% GDP ddi vm cac nudc mdi ndi vd dang phdt tridn (theo miic tmng binh gdn ddy).

DBR (2011);

Chowdhury vd Iyanatul(2010);

Benedict Bingham (2010); International Development Association va IMF (2010), IMF (2009);

Rai Nallari (2006).

Vuql cdc ngudng ndy, ngrcdng/ng nudc ngodi duuc Chinh ph^ bdo Idnh cd thi tdc ddng tidu cue ddi vdi tdng trudng kinh le, nhdt Id khd ndng trd ruf (Budng cong Laffer trd ng hay chu U nguuc).

Cdc ngudng ndy cd vdn d^, song chua dupc thay the.

Thdm hut ngdn sdch

* Khdng vuijl qud 5% GDP (ddi vdi cdc nudc dang phdt triin vd chuyin dii) vd 3% dd'i vdi cdc nudc phdt triin (EU: bdt budc) (cdc nudc Ddng Au vd cdng hda thudc Lidn Xd trudc ddy tu chpn ldm ngudng cho minh.

DBR(2011)vd nhilu ngudn khdc.

Co cdu ludng vdn quocle

Ty le an todn ciia ddu tugidn tilp (portfolio) bdng trdi philu, chiing khodn...

khi ty Id ndy khdng Idn hon 20%. Ddi vdi ty Id np ngdn hpn nen hqn chi dudi 30% long sd vay.

IMF (1998) vd cdc ngudn khdc.

Lam phdt ' Nghien cuu 88 nuoc (trong dd cd An D$) cho thdy miic Ipm phdt cao hon ngudng 8% cd tdc ddng tieu cm; Idm gidm tang trudng kinh tl.

* Doi vdi cdc nudc thdnh vien ED: miic lam phdt khdng dupc cao hon 1,5 dilm phdn trdm so vdi miic lam phdt trung binh cua 3 thdnh vidn cd miic k m phdt thdp nhdt.

KannanRvd Himanshu loshi (1998)' DBR (2011)

Nghien ciiu cuo Konnon R vd Himanshu Joshi (1998) ddi vdi g doon 1970-1990

Ldi sudt ddi ban

* Cdc thdnh vien EU: Miic Idi sud't danh nghia ddi ban phdi khdng cao hon 2 dilm phdn trdm so vdi miic lam phdt trung binh cua 3 thdnh vidn cd miic lam phdt thdp nhdt; cao nhdt Id 6%/nam.

Biln ddng tygid

* Cdc nudc EU: Ty gid thuc hiiu hi|u khdng cao hon 1,5 dilm phdn trdm so vdi miic tfaig hdng ndm trong chi phi too dQng danh nghia.

DBR (2011)

Cho vay tdng manh

* Cdc nuoc EU: ngudng cdnh bdo: tin dpng cho khu vpc tu nhdn, hO gia dinh cao hon 10%/nftm.

DBR (2011)

44

10 Tdng gid, BDS

* Cdc nudc EU: khdng vupt qud 6%/ndm.

' Kit qud thing kd nhilu nudc cilia IMF (2001a) cho thdy sou khi tdng manh, gid bdt dOng sdn (BDS) bdt ddu gidm mpnh khi bdt In tdi chinh xdy ra. Tnmg binh, gid BDS dl dr (cd tinh din 1pm phdt) tdng 20% td 2 d i n 7 ndm trudc bdt In, gidm tilp 15% trudc kfai bdt In tdi chinh xdy ra trong vdng 2 ndm vd sou dd 0dm cho d i n ddy c&a khikg khodng.

+ Chi tidu do ludng bong bdng BDS

' Hi s l gid BDS trdn thu nhdp (P/E): Muc dd an todn Id tii 8-8 Idn, cao hon Id bong bdng BDS.

* HI s l gid BDS trdn gid thul BDS: Mdc dO on todn Id 15-17 Idn.

* Ty trpng nhd dl ttlng (do ludng miic dd ddu cc): Miic dO an todn Id dudi 30%.

-I- Bong bdng dupc coi Id dd vd khi thi gid xuing dudi 30% (kinh nghi|m cua cdc bong bdng t g cdc quic gin chdu Au, Hoa Ky).

DBR (2011) IMF(2001a)

vd Alan Phan (2011).'

Ngudn: Ting hpp cida Nhdm D g h i m B j

CHUNG KHOAN VIETNAM So 161 Thing 3/2012

HOI NHAP KINH TE QUOC TE

hung khoan

Bang 3. Cac chi tieu GSTC chon loc cho Viet Nam

Gidm sdt an todn vi md Gidm sdt an todn vi md

1. Tiing tnrong kinh te 1. An todn von td'i thilu (cdp 1,2)

1.1. Tdng tnrong todn nen kinh te 2. Chdt luOTig tdi sdn cua h | thing cdc NHTM

1.2. Tang tnrong ngdnh 2.1. Cho ygy theo linh vyc

2. Cdn cdn thanh todn 2.2. Cho ygy Iheo loqi hinh ddng lien

2.1. Ludng vd'n ngdn hqn 2.3. Cho vay Iheo ky hqn

3. Thdm hpt cdn cdn vang lai 2.4. Cho vay cdc DNNN ldm fin thua 16

4. Dutrii ngoqi hdi 2.5. Cho ygy BDS

4.1. Ty 16 Du tru ngoqi hdi vd Gid tri tuong dmmg mpi ludn nhdp khdu 2.6. No'xftu vd du phdng 4.2. Ty le giua Du tru ngoqi hdi vd Np' nutrc ngodi ngdn hqn 3. Chi tieu vl lpi nhudn

5. Npnudcngodi/GDP 3.1.Lginhudn/Tdisdn(R0A)

5.1. Npnudc ngodi so vdi GDP 3.2. L 0 nhufln/Vdn tu cd (ROE)

5.2. Nghia vu trn np nudc ngodi so vdi kim ngqch xudt khdu 4. Thanh khodn

5.3. Np qud hqn 4.1. Tiln gui/Td'ng cung ung tiln te

6.Npcdng/GDP 4.2.Chovay/Tilngfii

7. Lqm phdt CPI 4.3. Ca cdu thdi hqn cua tdi sdn cd vd tdi sdn np

7.1. Lqm phdt CQf bdn 5. Chi s l gid thj trudng BDS (VNREI)

8. Cho vay nin kinh t l 5.1. Chi sibong bdng gid BDS

9. Cdc md hinh dinh lupng 8. Cdc chi tidu gidm sdt tdp dodn

9.1. Md hinh cdnh bdo sdm (EWS) 6.1. Tidu chi phdn loqi tdp dodn tdi chinh

9.2. Md hinh kilm tra siic chju dung cdc cU sic tdi chinh - tiln td (ST) 6.2. Gidi han tin dpng 6' cdp dp tdp dodn

9.3. Md hinh gid tri cd the tin that (VaR) 6.3. Vdn phdp dinh can thiet de bao dam an todn von cua Idp dodn ldi chinh

m^.

^SavM.'C S: Qipn Ipc, bl sung cua Nhdm ngbudn ciiu tit nhilu u p o n khdc nhcpt

tai chinh k h a ndi trdi trong huy dong va p h a n bd cac ngudn vdn trong nen kinh te.

Trong qua t r i n h cai each, phat trien TTTC, he thdng giam sat ciing tiing budc hinh t h a n h va p h a t trien. H i e n nay, he thdng cac cd quan GSTC ve ban chat la mo hinh giam sat theo dinh che hay theo chiic n a n g (Mo hinh 1). Luu y la, Uy ban Giam sat Tai chinh Qudc gia cd chiic nang t u van, giiip Chinh phii trong dieu h a n h giam sat he thdng tai chinh.

Hien tai, he thdng tai chinh van cdn nhieu yeii kem, bat cap nhu: (i) Viec thuc hien giam sat tren cd sd n i i ro, giam sat an toan vi mo van cdn yeu kem; chii yeu thien ve giam sat t u a n thii;

van con it cac cdng cu giam sat an toan vi mo, n h a t la ddi vdi giam sat dua t r e n n i i ro. Cac md hinh p h a n tich dinh lugfng n h u EWS, ST,... h a u n h u chua dugfc

p h a t trien, ap dung; (ii) Thi trudng BDS Viet Nam hien dang tUdng ddi non yeu, r a t thieu cong khai, minh bach, n h a t la tin dung BDS ciia cac NHTM; va (iii) Giam sat cac n i i ro cheo con yeu kem do thieu su phdi hgfp, hen thdng trong giam sat toan bg TTTC do cac cd quan giam sat hoat dgng mot each doc lap; dac biet, den nay van chua c6 mot cd quan GSTC vi mo c6 dii tham quyen va nang luc bg may de co the canh bao, ngan ngiia va xii ly hiiu hieu cac loai n i i ro ciia he thdng tai chinh dait nudc.

2.2. Mot s6 khuySn nghi chinh sdch dp dung h& thdng chi tiSu GSTC a Viit Nam

De nang cao hieu qua va hieu luc giam sat he thdng qudc gia, van de cdt loi trudc het la can xay dung he thdng GSTC dua tren bg cac chi tieu GSTC vi mo va vi mo, trong dd, ngoai t h a m chieii cac ngudng qudc te, cac qudc gia

can xay dung rieng cho minh cac ngudng tham chieu va canh bao n i i ro cu the.

Trong trung va dai han, can chii trgng giam sat an toan vi mo, dua tren nii ro, vdi viec xay dung va ap dung cac md hinh dinh ludng n h u ST, EWS va Mo hinh gia tri co the tdn that (VaR). Trudc m i t , tiing budc chuyen trgng tam tii giam sat tuan thii sang giam sat dua tren nii ro thong qua viec xay dung va ap dung cac chi tieu an toan vi md va cac md hinh dinh lugfng cho Viet Nam.

Dua tren phan tich cac yeu td gay nen va canh bao n i i ro, tinh thdng dung, dieu kien the che, he du lieu va cac chuan muc thdng ke ciia cac chi tieu an toan vi mo va vi md (gdp) d Viet Nam, cd the de xuat bg cac chi sd giam sat va mo hinh dinh lugfng n h u Bang 3 dudi day.

Ve cac ngit&ng tham chieu giam sat

45

So 76 7 - Thing 3/2012 CHIJNC KHOAN VIET NAM

hling khoan

H O I N H A P K I N H T E Q U O C T E

Hau het cac chi tieu neu tren deu da cd ngudng tham chieu, ngudng canh bao (Bang 2); tuy vay, can luu y la nhiing ngudng nay it co y nghia giam .sal mpt each an toan, co hieu qua tren thuc te. Chmh vi vay, de t&ng hieu qua giam .sat, nhat la canh bao ciia tiing chi tieu. gop phan nang cao hieu qua giam .sat an toan vi md, giam .sat dua tren nii ro ciia TTT(\ can co su phan tich sau dac diem kinh 16 tai chinh trong nudc, cac bien cd tai chinh va chudi so lieu trong qua khii de \ay dimg cac ngir&ng canh bao, tham chieu chi tirt cu the cho tiing chi tieu (tham chi dieu chinh trong tOmg giai doan 3-5 nam). Tuy nhien, su thieu I minh bach, chua day dii ciia he thdng thdng ke Viet Nam gay can trd nhat dinh den viec xay dung cac bg chi tieu ndi tren.

Ben canh dd, viec xac dinh cac ngudng tham chieu, canh bao Cling gap khd khan do Viet Nam chua trai qua khiing hoang tai chinh (tien te, ngan hang va ngf).

Ve xay dimg va iing dung kiem dinh ST

Trudc het, can nang cao nhan thiic ve tam quan trgng ciia Md i hinh ST trong giam sat cac dinh che tai chinh, nhat la cac ngan hang. Tren cd sd dd, tiing budc xay dung Md hinh hiiu hi$u, phii hdp vdi hoan canh Viet Nam.

Ve ling dung mo hinh canh bao s&m khiing hoang

Tren the gidi, md hinh nay cd y nghia quan trgng trong viec canh bao nhiing mam mdng nii ro ciia he thdng tai chinh va nen kinh te. Tai Viet Nam, thii nghiem EWS cho thay mot sd ket qua tich cue ban dau. Cac thii

nghidm da cho thay tiem n&ng ling dung EWS d Vi$t Nam la kha Idn. Trong thdi gian tdi, cac nghien ciiu tiep theo cfin mpt sd thii nghipm khac va theo cac hudng khac nhau. Tuy v&y, de nang cao do tin cay, chinh xac ciia canh bao khung hoang, viec xay dung mot cd sd dU lieu day dii, cd pham vi rpng va tan suat cao la het siic can thiet.

Vie giam sat cac to chiic tai chinh va tap doan tai chinh

Doi v&i giam sdt cac to chiic tai chinh, day manh ap dung cac tieu chuan giam sat theo cac tieu chuan CAMELS (Basel I, II va III); rieng trong linh vuc ngan hang, trudc m&t, can tiep tuc trien khai toan bg cac tieu chi phan loai nii ro ngf theo Basel II, va trong dai han, chuan bi cac dieu kien can thiet de tiing budc ap dung Basel III. Trong linh vuc bao hiem ciing can tien hanh cac tieu chuan nay.

Doi v&i cac tap doan tai chinh, can xay dung cac tieu chi phap ly xac dinh tap doan tai chinh. Tiep den, can xay dung cac quy dinh dinh tinh va dinh lugfng de xay dung he thdng chi tieu gidi ban tin dung, chi tieu danh gia he sd an toan vdn tdi thieu (vdn phap dinh), vdn bd sung.

Ve hoan tliien he thong thong

tin so li$u thong ke va cong tac dii bao

Vi?t Nam can chii trgng hdn den ddi mdi h$ thdng thdng ke va cdng bd thdng tin, n&ng cao n&ng luc du bao. De cdng tac du bao dugfc thuc hien hieu qua, cd quan chiu trach nhiem can quan tam den viec nang cao kha nang ddng gdp ciia chinh cdng tac nay vao qua trinh hoach dinh chinh sach. ®

T a l lieu t h a m k h d o

• fl6 Th| Hling Hdih, Vo 11i| H4ig Nhung (2006);

Hinh thirh cflc tft) dofin W chinh - ngfti hing: kinh nghl$m ciia EU vii bfli hgc cho Vi§f Nam; Tfl) chf TS difnh s(J12(506).

- D6 Th| Kim Hfio (2010), "Gidm sffl cOc tOp doin Ifli chfnh - Vdn d§ d(lt ra vd mOf sd ggi y cho Vi$t Nom", Tgp chf Khofl hgc vd fldo tgo ngdn hdng, sd 1-2/2010.

• NguySn Kim Anh (2010), "Rui ro cua cdc djnh chd tdf chfnh trung gion: Vdn dd dot ro ddi voi h$ thdng gidm sot Vidt Nam', Dd tdi nhdnh 3 thuOc Dd tdi cdp nhd nudc KX.01.14/06-10 "Hodn thl$n hf thdng GSTC b Vidt Nam" do TO Nggc Hung ldm chu nhidm.

- Ld XuOn Sang (2002) (chu nhidm dwySn dd),

"An ninh tdi chfnh Vidt Nom trong bdi c&ih t^ do hda thuong mgj", Chuyen dd nghiOn dju trong fid td d ^ nhd nudc KX. "Cdc gidi phdp bdo d ^ on ninh tfli chiidi trong qud trinh hOi nhdp" do Tdo HOu Phung b n chu nhi^.

- Nguydn Xudn Trinh, Vfi Trf Thdnh, Le Xudn Sang (2010), Thj tnjdng tOi chinh Vi$l Nam: Cdi cOch, phc«

tridh vd tdm nhin 2020, Nho xudt bte Toi diih. Ha NOi.

- Nguy^ Trung HSu (2010), "Xdy dif« hdlh(i« d j tiOucDih bdo sdm lii roheih6igtychinh tin tf.Tcpdi Khoa hgc NgOn htn^ Hgc vidf) Ngoi htra ltn« 7-»^ lAn 2010.

TO Ngoc Hung (chu nhigm de tdi) (2010), Hodn thidn hd thdng GSTC d Vidt Nam, fid tai cdp nhd nudc KX.01.14/06-10, Ho N5i.

- Trjnh Thanh Huydn, 'MO hinh GSTC hgp nhdt:

Kinh nghiOm qudc td vo bOi hgc cho Vidt Nam".

- Cdc ngudn toi lidu nudc ngodi.

C h u t h i c h

1. C h ^ hpi, Hattochaiyoy (2003) do gifi thieu he th(iig 110 (hfliOu gi&n sdi on to^ ta chlih i« mO vd vi mO do NgOn kng Phtt tri^ A chdu dd xud. Theo dieu hudr« gti) l(i, td c6 ode nudc thOnh vien BJ, theo Hidp ^ MoQslriKh dugc quy ^ dp dmg rd it dii tieu (5 dil lieu) vd cdc dil tJOu ndy d i v thd did hda (mong ttih ph(|) lenh).

2. ThuOt n^ti6ig Anh Id Trigger points.

3.Lydol0cdcngu0ngdugc xdy dgng dga tren cdc cddi thuc khdc nhcRj vd dga trOn sd lidu kinh td-tei dwih khdc nhau cOng nhu hodn cdnh phd tri^ khdc nhau dio nhidu nudc/nhdn nudc Thgc ti&i gdn ddy d n thdy, nhieu nudc diuD digm nguSng cdnh bdo (vi du, vd nguSng no cOng, ngnudc ngod), song do sa vdo khiing hodig vd bd dn td diinh vd ngugc ki. Bdi thdn md sd nguong tham diidu gdi ddy djng dd dugc didu dilnh nhu thdm tut ngdi sddi, cdi cdn VQng bi vd ddc bid Id mOc ngcdng.

46

CHUNG KHOAN VIET NAM So 161 Thing3/2012