CHIEN LUOC "CHUOI NGOC TRAI
nVA MUC TIEU TRO THANH CUdNG QUOC BIEN
•
CUA TRUNG QUOC TRONG THE KY XXI
TS. TRAN NAM TIEN
Dqi hpc KHXH vd Nhdn vdn Dqi hpc Quoc gia TP. Ho Chi Minh
"Chuoi ngpc irai" (String of Pearls) la ten goi chien lUde trien khai ve hang hai q u a n sU cua Trung Qud'e xua't hien l l n d l u tien trong Bao eao TUcfng lai cua ndng lUpng d chdu A do Booz Allen Hamilton vie't n a m 2005 theo dat hang eiia Bo Qud'e phdng Hoa Ky.
Nhin dudi goc nhin chie'n lUdc, t h u a t ngut
"Chudi ngoc trai"''^ md ta sU trdi day anh hUcing dia ehinh tri eiia Trung Qud'c thdng qua nd liic gia t a n g n h i m mci rong cac md'i lien he ngoai giao dac biet, va hien dai hda liic liidng quan sii trai dai tii vimg bien phia N a m Trung Qud'c xuyen eo bien Malacca, bang qua An Do DUdng tdi vung vinh A Rap, xa hdn la luc dia chau Phi. Ciing vdi sii phat trien manh me hien nay, sU le thuoc vao cac ngudn cung cap tai nguyen va n a n g lUdng tii nUdc ngoai, dac biet la dau mo va khi dot thien nhien, ddng mot vai trd quan trong h i n h t h a n h nen chinh sach
va chien lUdc p h a t trien eua T r u n g Qud'c.
Nhiing yeu eau dd dUdc xem la ddng liic ldn thiie day sU p h a t trien trong quan he eua T r u n g Qud'e vdi Angola, Trung A, Indonesia, T r u n g Ddng, Xga, Sudan, va Venezuela n h a m dam bao thUdng xuyen con dudng giao thUdng eiia T r u n g Qud'c thdng qua cac k h u viic trong yeu. Trung Qudc cho r a n g ho e l n phai cd nhiing md'i giao hao dac biet nhU t r e n mdi dam bao dUdc sU tiep cSn n a n g liidng, tii dd cd the hinh t h a n h chie'n lUdc qud'c phdng va hoach dinh siie m a n h trong tUdng lai.
Bai viet nay tSip t r u n g p h a n tich t i m quan trong cua v^'n de n a n g liidng trong chie'n lUde p h a t trien cua T r u n g Qud'c hien nay, tac dong ciia nd de'n sii hinh t h a n h chie'n lUdc "Chudi ngoc trai", cCing vdi muc tieu trci t h a n h cUdng qud'c bien trong tUdng lai cua T r u n g Qud'c. Trong dd, bai vie't ciing de cap de'n vi tri ciia Bien Ddng trong chien liidc "Chudi ngoc
64
NGHltN CliU TRUNG QUOC s6' 1(125) - 2012Chien luac "Chuoi ngoc trai'
trai" n h i m ly giai nhQng ddng thai hien nay ciia T r u n g Qud'c ci k h u viic nay.
1. Su "trdi day hoa bmh'"'^ ciia Trung Quoc trong thap nien dau the ky XXI
Sau khi Chie'n t r a n h lanh ke't thiic, so vdi cac cUdng qud'c khae, Trung Qud'c dUdc xem la mot qud'c gia tUdng dd'i yeu kem. Sau sU kien Thien An Mdn (1989), Trung Qud'c phai m a t ba n a m tri ly, chinh dd'n, trong ndi bo lanh dao cd tranh luan gay gat ve tdc do, bUde di cai each mci ciia. TrUde tinh hinh dd, Dang Tieu Binh dUa ra quye't saeh tiep tuc
"giai phdng tU tUdng" va " di sau eai each mci ciia", day m a n h chie'n lUdc "tang tdc", thiic hien mue tieu chie'n lUdc ba budc dUa T r u n g Qud'c trci t h a n h cUdng qud'c the gidi^^'. Do vay, Trung Qud'c cd yeu cau ve mdi trUdng ben ngoai hda binh, dn dinh phuc vu eho chie'n lUdc tang td'e p h a t trien kinh te. De tao cd sd cho sii p h a t trien mdi, T r u n g Qud'c da de ra chie'n lUde "Phat t h e n hda binh" vdi mong mud'n xay diing mot Id trinh phat trien mdi nhieu t h a m vong, ddng thdi xay diing mot h i n h a n h ve da't nUde Trung Qud'c mdi dd'i vdi cdng ddng the gidi. "Phat trien hda binh" la mot chie'n lUde cua T r u n g Qud'c b i t dau vao giiia thap ky 1990 n h i m giiip nen kinh te phat trien va hien dai hda, trong liic lam giam nhe nguy ed eac nUde khac cd the nhan thiic T r u n g Qud'c la mot md'i hiem hoa^^^ Thiic t i i n trien k h a i da chiing td, chinh sach dd'i ngoai mdi g i n vdi k h a u hieu "Trung Qud'c trdi day hda binh", da phan nao giiip xoa diu sii lo ngai va lam
giam di y mud'n eiia cac nUdc khac lien ket vdi nhau de dd'i phd vdi eUdng qud'e dang trdi day nay""''
Chinh phii Trung Qud'e da xac dinh 3 giai doan ke hoach phat trien trong tam 50 nam. Trong giai doan thii nha't, tii 2000 den 2010, Trung Qud'c hy vong se tang gap ddi GDP va Trung Qud'c dang tren dUdng dat de'n muc tieu nay. Trong giai doan thii nhi, ke't thiic vao nam 2020, tdng GDP tang gap ddi mot lan nuta sao cho GDP tren cd sci vd'n tren dau ngUdi dat khoang 3.000 USD. Trong giai doan cud'i, tii 2020 de'n 2050, Trung Qud'e mong dUde diing vao nac thang giiia eiia nhiing qud'c gia tien tie'n nhU la mot nUdc thinh vUdng, dan chu va ehu nghia xa hoi hien dai*^' Sau khi hoan t h a n h 2 ke hoach tren, Trung Qud'e se tuyen bd' t h a n h cdng trong viec hoan t h a n h chie'n lUde "phat trien trong hda binh" Nhin tdng quan, chie'n lUdc "Phat t h e n trong hda binh" eua Trung Qud'e se dUde hieu nhU la mot h a n h ddng ed trach nhiem va khdng gay nguy hai cho cac qud'c gia khac. Tuy nhien, ngUdi ta ciing tha'y r i n g day rd rang la mot chie'n lUdc chuyen tie'p, t r d tinh cho vai thap ky e l n thie't eho Trung Qud'c trdi day*'''.
Budc vao nhiing nam dau the ky XXI, Trung Qud'c da trci t h a n h mot nUdc ldn manh va cd t h a m vong toan cau. Vdi qua trinh mci cuta va xay diing hien dai hda, Trung Qud'e dat dUdc t h a n h tUu to ldn ve moi mat. Vdi td'e do tang trUcing t r u n g binh 9,7%. Xet tdng the, Trung Qud'e da trci t h a n h mot trong nhiing nUde cd siic
NGHIEN ClJfU TRUNG QUOC so 1(125) - 2012
manh tdng hdp hang dfiu the' gidi. Nam 2007, GDP ciia T r u n g Qud'e dat 3.425 ti USD, vUdn len diing thii 4 the gidi (,sau My, Nliat, Diic) ddng gd)) 16% eho tiing trUcIng toan can. I)U liii ngoai le eiia Trung QucYe dat 1.760 ty USD, diing dAu
tlie gidi: kim ngach mau dieh dat 2.170 ty USD, diing thii 3 (he gidi'"' Tinh den nam 2010, theo so lieu edng bdCua NBS ngay 20-1-2011 eho thay, Ihco tfnh toan sd bo, ea nam GDP d.at ;5i).798,;5 ty Nhan dan le, tang triu'ing 10,.'5"n so vdi nam trUde, tdc do tang trUdng n h a n h hdn
1,1% so vdi nam 2009'"'
Trong nhiing nam gan day, cung vdi da phat t h e n kinh le, Trung Qud'e khdng ngiing tang eUdng dau tU hien dai hda qud'c phdng, thu hep dang ke khoang each ve quan sU so vdi My, Nga. Trung Qud'c hien sd hutu mot kho vii khi thdng thUdng vao loai ldn nha't the gidi, mot lUc liidng m a n h ve ten Ixia t a m xa va tam ngan, ten Ixia mang d l u dan h a t nhan t i m tha'p, la cUdng qud'c vii tru diing thii ba Iron the gidi (sau My, Nga) va hien dang hien dai hoa khdng quan va hai quan, trong dd r a t chii trong de'n hai quan'"" Theo so' lieu cdng bd' eua Vien Khoa hoe Xa hoi T r u n g Qud'c nang llie quan sU va qud'e lUe tdng hdp eiia Trung Qud'c lan lUdt xe'p thii hai va thii bay trong bang xe'p h a n g 11 nUde ldn*"' Tren the gidi, do sU phuc hdi m a n h me cua eac nUdc ldn mdi trdi day, so s a n h liic liidng giiia cac nUdc ldn dang thay ddi cd ldi cho T r u n g Qud'c, xu the da cUc ngay cang p h a t trien, dan xen ldi ich
giuta cae nUde ldn ngay cang tang. Tu!
nam 1998, T r u n g Qud'c da the hien ro quan diem eua minh ve mot the' gidi da cu'e trong quan diem "khai niem mdi ve an ninh", ngu y r i n g T r u n g Qud'e mong mud'n "khoanh k h l e ddn ciic" cua My cha'm diit"^'. TrUdc thute le nay, Nga coi trong quan he vdi T r u n g Qud'e de tang the' trong quan he vdi My, An Do va N h a t Ban deu ehu trUdng eung cd' quan he vdi T r u n g Qud'c. My tie'p tuc gap khd khan, phai Uu tien cho vKn de Iraq va khu vUe T r u n g Ddng, ed yeu c l u hdp tac vdi Trung Qud'c trong nhieu van de toan eau va khu vUe.
TrUdc sii p h a t t h e n ciia T r u n g Qud'c, cac nUdc lang gieng cang n h a n thiic ro hdn ve eae cd hdi ciing nhU thach thiic dat ra do T r u n g Qud'c trdi day, trong dd tha'y rd ldi ich trong viec p h a t trien quan he vdi T r u n g Qud'c. Day la cd hoi thuan ldi de T r u n g Qud'e t a n g cUdng anh hUcing cl khu viie lang gieng len mot tang nac mdi cao hdn. T r u n g Qud'c hien nay dang tim each triin an cac nUde lang gieng r a n g siic m a n h eiia minh cd kiem che va khdng mang tinh de doa. Sii theo duoi chii nghia da phUdng ciia Trung Qud'c qua viec t h a m gia hdp tac vdi Hiep hoi cac nUdc Ddng Nam A (ASEAN) cCing vi the lanh dao cua ho trong Td chiic Hdp tac ThUdng Hai (SCO) va Hoi nghi ThUdng dinh cac nUdc Ddng A dUdc xem la mot cam ke't ro rang*^^' Mot khia canh khac cua chinh sach dd'i ngoai cua Trung Qud'c la nd liic de cai thien cac quan he song phUdng vdi cac ciidng qud'c tren the
66
NGHIEN CllU TRUNG 0U6'C so 1(125) - 2012Chien luoc "Chuoi ngoc trai"...
gidi n h a m giam thieu nguy ed eac nUde lien ke't n h a u trong mot mat t r a n thd'ng nha't n h i m kiem ehe sii trdi day eiia Trung Qud'c. Hien nay, Trung Qud'c da xay diing dUde nhieu a n h hUcing ci khu viic Trung A thdng qua td chiie Hdp tac ThUdng Hai (SCO), ma cac nUde thanh vien gdm Trung Qud'e, Nga, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, va Tajikistan Cling mot sd' nUde t h a n h vien quan sat la An Do, Pakistan, I r a n va Mdng Co"'"
Trong thdi diem hien tai, eac nha lanh dao eiia Trung Qudc cd ba md'i lo rat ldn: Su sd'ng cdn eiia che do, tinh toan ven lanh thd, va dn dinh trong nUdc*^^' Cd the ndi, t h a n h edng trong phat t h e n kinh te dUdc n h a n thiie nhU la chia khda cho sU dn dinh trong nUdc.
Chinh phii T r u n g Qud'e trong thdi gian qua tap t r u n g giai quyet eac van de ndi bo, va can ban chinh tri ndi dia thiie day cac chfnh sach k i n h te va dd'i ngoai. Tuy nhien, sU khac biet giiia sU p h a t trien manh ve kinh te ci viing duyen hai lai khdng to r a khdng tUdng xiing vdi sU phat t h e n cham chap d viing ndi dia.
Dieu nay d i n de'n sii bung nd nhiing xung dot trong xa hoi Trung Qud'c g i n day, dac biet la nhiing vCing xa Trung Udng. Tren cd sci dd, viec p h a t trien kinh te trci ^hanh nhiem vu ciic ky quan trong de tao ra nhiing h i n h a n h tieh ciie, qua dd tao niem tin eho ngUdi dan trong thdi ky phat t h e n mdi'^^' Trong giai doan phat t h e n mdi, k i n h te la siie m a n h ldn nhat va ciing la diem ye'u nha't cua Trung Qud'c, va do dd nd la n h a n to' chi
phd'i trong ehinh sach va chie'n lUdc eua Trung Qud'c hien nay.
Nhin chung, sU phat t h e n ciia Trung Qud'c hien nay tii banh trUdng nen kinh te va gia tang anh hUcing toan c l u cho den sii ldn manh quan sU nha't thie't phai ddi hoi vd nang lUdng, dUa ra nhiing thach thiie he't siie ldn lao eho cap lanh d.ao Trung Qud'c trong viec dieu dong khd'i khdng Id ldn xdn ve ca'u triic, ky t h u a t va thay ddi xa hdi*"' Do dd, de giii viing phat trien kinh te, Trung Qud'c phai le thudc ngay cang tang ngudn nang lUdng va nguyen lieu tii nUde ngoai. Tii dd, tuyen giao thUdng hang hai tren bien cd vai trd ciie ky quan trong vi h l u he't ngoai thUdng cua Trung Qud'c thdng qua dUdng bien. Do lay nang lUdng lam nen tang cho nen kinh te, chfnh saeh kinh te eua Trung Qud'c tiiy thudc vao sii t h a n h cdng cua chinh saeh nang lUdng'^*' Tat ea cho tha'y, viec dam bao mot tuyen giao thUdng hang hai de van chuyen nang lUdng va nguyen lieu se hd trd chfnh sach nang lUdng Trung Qud'e va la ddng lUe chu ye'u d i n g sau
"Chudi ngoc trai"
2. Van de nang luang trong chien luofc
"trdi day hoa binh" ciia T r u n g Quoc So vdi "nhiing con hd ehau A" nhU Han Qud'e, Dai Loan, Thai Lan, Hong Kong va Singapore vd'n la nhiing nUde va lanh thd ed td'e do n h a n h ehdng trong phat t h e n kinh te va cdng nghiep hda tii thap ky 1960 de'n t h a p ky 1990, thi Trung Qud'c chi thiic sU trdi day manh me tii nhiing n a m dau the ky XXI. Tuy
NGHIEN CUfU TRUNG QUQC so 1(125) - 2012
67
nhien, su' trdi day ciia "Con rdng ehau A"
Trung (^udc ed liem nang bd xa sU phai trien eiia "Nhiing eon hd ehau A"""' Nhieu nha kinh le tin i-ang vdi kh;i nang cdn tiem an la su' Irni day n h a n h ehdng cua tang ldp trung luu, Trung (^ude eo liem nang liej) lue phat Irien manh me trong nhieu nam tdi. Tuy nhien, sii phat trien eiia Trung (^udc khdng ngii'ng ddi hdi gia tang ve nang lUdng nhien lieu.
Yeu eau nang lu'diig ehii ye'u ciia Trung Qwde ihdi diem nay \vn dvn 70%, va Trung Qudc hien dang la nha siin xuat va ngUdi tieu thu than ldn n h a i li-en the' gidi'-°'
TrUdc day, nam 1985, Trung Qud'e la nha xua't k h a u d l u liia ldn nha't viing Ddng A'^^'; n a m 1993, T r u n g Qud'e trci t h a n h nUdc n h a p k h a u dau thd; va trong nam 2004, Trung Qud'e da trci thanh nUde nhap khau dau md ldn thii nhi tren the gidi*^' Trong nam 2009, viec nhap khau dau Ilia cua Trung Qud'e da vUdt qua con so' 200 trieu tan*^^'. Do dd, viec dam bao cd dUde tai nguyen dau md cl nUde ngoai se la can thiet viia cho 'viec tie'p tue phat trien kinh te va cho sU dn dinh da't nUdc cua Trung Qud'e*^'". Hien nay, van de "nang lUdng" trci thanh noi dung quan trong trong chfnh saeh ngoai giao cua Trung Qud'e. Cac nd liic ngoai giao n h i m tim kie'm ngudn n a n g liidng eiia Trung Qud'c md rdng r a the' gidi xuyen qua Trung Ddng, Trung A, ehau Phi, va tdi t^n chau My'2",
Theo cac chi so' cho t h i y , ngudn d l u thd n h a p vao T r u n g Qud'c theo k h u viic
va quoe gia, trong dd hdn 70% liidng d l u nliAi) khl'u eiia T r u n g Qud'e de'n tii Trung Ddng va ehau Phi, toan bo sd'nay (leu dUde van chuyen bang dUdng bien.
Trong nam 2009, 8 trong so' 10 nUdc eung ca'p h a n g (hiu, dap iing 7/10 so' lUcJng nhAn k h a u n a n g liidng ciia Trung Qud'c la b chau Phi v^ T r u n g Ddng''"
Trong dd, van l.ii bien tii T r u n g Ddng va chau Phi v i n dUdc xem la nhiing khu vUc ehii yeu dv. n h a p k h a u dau md hien tfii va trong tUdng lai cua T r u n g Qudc.
Trung Qud'c da the hien ro sU cam ke't lau dai den eac qudc gia d cac khu viic nay thdng qua cac md'i giao hao vdi cac nha xua't k h a u dau d k h u viic Trung
At
Ddng va chau Phi. O k h u viie Trung Ddng, Arabia Saudi la n h a cung cap dau thd ldn nha't eho T r u n g Qud'c. Gan day, Iran ciing trd t h a n h dd'i tac quan trong eua Trung Qud'e cJ khu viie nay. Trung Qud'c da ky mot thoa t h u a n hdp tac dau va khi thien nhien keo dai 25 nam vdi Iran b i t d l u tii nam 2005, mot thoa thuan ldn chUa tiing tha'y, tri gia tren 70 ti USD'^^
(j khu viic chau Phi, T r u n g Qud'c da dau tu 3 li USD de md m a n g cac md dau chUa khai thac he't miic ci Sudan, bao gdm 930 dam dUdng 6'ng, mot xUdng loc d l u va mot cang bien'"'''
Hien nay, T r u n g Qud'c cdn xay diing dxiOc eac dii an n a n g lii(3ng ci viing Trung A, eu the nhU mot thoa t h u a n p h a t trien cac vung mo d a u va khf b Kazakhstan va cac hdp ddng xay diing dUdng 6'ng ci Kyrgyzstan va T u r k m e n i s t a n , va cdn mot so' he tho'ng k h a c nuta, nhUng cac dii
68
NGHIEN Cini TRUNG QUfiC so 1(125) - 2012Chien luoc "ChuSi ngpc trai"...
an deu ehiing to ehi phi cao, h a u can khd k h a n va r a t phiic t a p do thieu ed sd ha t i n g b mien Tay Trung Qud'e'-'-" Trong dd, Trung Qud'c lai gap khd k h a n canh t r a n h trong quan he vdi Nga trong linh viie nay'^°' Do dd, trong tUdng lai, ngudn nang liidng chfnh eiia Trung Qud'c se van de'n tii Trung Ddng va chau Phi.
Do nang lUdng ed vai trd sd'ng cdn dd'i vdi nen kinh te, nen chie'n Ixicic nang lUdng eua T r u n g Qud'e ngay cang hUdng vao quyen sd hutu va kiem soat cac ngudn cung dau liia ci nUdc ngoai, trong dd tap t r u n g b k h u vUc Trung Ddng va chau Phi. N h a n thay cae thi trUdng nang lUdng toan eau va eae ngudn eung md cd the hi My "thao tiing", Trung Qud'c nhan dinh can thiic hien chfnh sach "di trUdc"
de bao dam cac ngudn eung nang lUdng.
Theo dd, Trung Qud'e cung cap ta't ca cae dieu kien ma cae cdng ty dau khf qud'e doanh (NOCs) can (dUdi hinh thute eho vay hoae eae hinh thiie hd trd khae) de tie'p can eac ngudn n a n g lUdng phuc vu nhu cau tieu t h u cua Trung Qud'c. Thiic te cho tha'y, cung cap n a n g Ixicing qua dudng van tai bien dUdc xem la phUdng thiic td't nha't cua Trung Qud'c. Tii nhan thiic tren, cac n h a chie'n Ixicic Trung Qud'c cho r i n g viec kiem soat dUdng bien la mot dieu kien khdng the thieu dxicic va la ye'u to' quyet dinh cho sU trdi day cua Trung Qud'c. NhU v^y, dam bao cac tuyen giao thdng t r e n bien dUdc xem la muc tieu ro r a n g n h a t cua Trung Qud'c trong viec trien k h a i chie'n Ixicic "Chudi ngoc trai"
3. Trung Qudc vdi chien liroc "Chudi ngoc (rai" hudfng ra bien trong the ky XXI
Sau mot thdi gian trdi day manh me, Trung Qud'e tie'p tuc mong mud'n trd t h a n h mot cUdng qud'e bien, tii dd tim kie'm mot vi trf tUdng xiing vdi sU phat t h e n hien tai eua minh. Sii phat trien hien nay ciia Trung Qud'c da vUdn ra khdi lanh thd va khu viic truyen thd'ng ciia ho. Dii thUdng xuyen dxicic dau tU, hai quan Trung Qud'e hien van cdn khiem td'n va chUa ed kha nang dd'i dau mot each nghiem tiie vdi hai quan Hoa Ky. Nhan thiic dUdc dieu nay, Trung Qud'c da am t h i m thiie hien mot chie'n lUde "Chudi ngoc trai" xay diing mang ludi cac can eii hai quan Trung Qud'c, ciing cae cang bien ve tinh tii Bien Ddng qua An Do DUdng. Vdi chien lUdc nay, Trung Qud'e mud'n md rdng anh hudng tii dao Hai Nam b Bien Ddng sang phfa Tay qua eac tuyen dUdng hang hai tap nap nha't eua the gidi eho de'n vinh Persian.
Md'i quan tam va anh hudng ngay cang tang eua Trung Qud'c txi vung Bien Ddng qua An Do DUdng va tie'n vao vinh A Rap dxicic md ta nhU mot "Chudi ngoc trai" Theo Sach t r l n g edng bd' nam 2008, nhiem vu eua liic lU(3ng hai quan Trung Qud'c la "duy tri an ninh hang hai eua Trung Qud'c va bao ve chii quyen cua ho d cac vung lanh hai ciing nhU cac quyen va ldi fch hang hai ciia ho"'^^'
Xet ve m a t chie'n lUdc, tiing "vien ngoc trai" trong "Chudi ngoc trai" la mot md'i lien he de'n anh hudng dia ehinh tri hay hien dien quan sU cua Trung Qud'e d cae
NGHIEN CliU TRUNG QUOC so 1(125) - 2012
69
qud'e gia tu' khu vUe Hien Ddng de'n An Do DUdng. Cu the, d:\o Hai Nam ciia Trung (}u(~)e, viia mdi nang cap eae e(J sd quan su, In mot "vi("'n ngoc trai" quan trong, xual phat dit'-m cua "Chudi n{;(.)e trai" Trong thdi gian (pin, Trung Qud'e eho nang cap san bay [vvn (l.io Phii Lam nam d viing q u i n dao Moang Sa thuoc ehii quyen eiia VicH Nam, dUde xem la mot "vi^Mi ngoc tr.ii" li(*'p theo. Xay diing mot cang luu'ic sau tai Sillvve, Myanmar, la mot "vi('~Mi ng(H" trai" Mot ed sd lam container cho tau lluiy tai ('hittagong (Bangladesh) cung dUde xem la mot
"vien ngoc trai", va cung nhU the vdi vice xay dUng mot can cii hai quan tai Gwadar, Pakistan'^^'. 0 eae "vien ngoc trai" ben ngoai Trung Qud'c, cac dii an xay dUng cang va phi trUdng, nhiing cam ket ngoai giao, va day m a n h hien dai hda tao nen thute chat "chudi ngoc trai"
ciia Trung Qud'c. Cae "hat ngoc trai" nd'i nhau tii bd bien lue dia Trung Qud'e qua cac viing duyen hai Bien Ddng, eo bien Malacca, bang ngang An Do DUdng, va di vao vung duyen hai bien A rap va vinh Persian, qua dd nd'i Trung Qud'c vdi vung Trung Ddng, va xa hdn 1^ chau Phi. Dac biet, trong vung bien An Do DUdng, chie'n lUde "Chudi ngoc trai" cua Trung Qud'e cdn n h a m hUdng tdi kiem che An Do, dam bao an ninh nSng lUqing va kiem soat cac tuyen dUdng h a n g hai quan trong eiia the gidi*^^'
Hien nay, T r u n g Qud'c nghi ngd My va cac ddng minh bao vay T r u n g Qud'c eiing nhiing k h u viic a n h hudng cua
minh. Chfnh vi vay, T r u n g Qud'c e l n phai bao dam an toan eae tuyen dUdng vAn tai ma hien nay d a n g n i m trong Uu tien chie'n lUdc quan sii. Cac ehudi vdng cvia Trung Qud'e, keo dai tii P a k i s t a n den Myanmar, se trd t h a n h cac h a n h lang chie'n lUdc tai viing bien nd'i chau Phi va Trung Ddng. De da dang hda cac tuyen dudng van chuyen va t r a n h nhiing chd t h a t trong chudi cac dao, cac ngudn nang lUdng se cd the dxicic van chuyen tii Sittwe va G w a d a r bang dUdng bo va dUdng s i t doc theo bien gidi giiia Trung Qud'c vdi M y a n m a r va P a k i s t a n de vao cac tinh Van Nam va Tan Cudng cua Trung Qud'e. Mot khi vi trf dia chie'n Ixicic cua Trung Qud'c dUdc eung cd' tai An Do DUdng, ehudi vdng ngoc tUdng lai se cd the vUdn tdi t a n dao Seychelles de hUdng chie'n Ixicic cua T r u n g Qud'e de'n tan ehau Phi. Khdng phai la dieu n g l u nhien ma vao nam 2008 khi T r u n g Qud'c thdng bao y dinh xay diing mot t a u san bay n h i m dam bao an ninh cac chudi dao va tang cUdng hien dien chie'n lUdc cua hai quan Trung Qud'c tai An Do Dudng'^"'
Mot thach thiic q u a n trong dd'i vdi Trung Qud'e la con dUdng bien nd'i lien Trung Qud'c vdi chau Phi va Trung Ddng phai di ngang qua eo bien Malacca, mot h a n h lang hep diidc cac nUdc Singapore, Malaysia va Indonesia lien ke't dieu h a n h viec thong thUdng. Con dUdng nay dai hdn 800km, n a m giiia Malaysia va dao S u m a t r a , vdi be rong khdng qua 3km trUdc Singapore, la mot true chu yeu nhUng d i bi tdn thiidng. Trong
70
NGHIEN Cl)U TRUNG OUOC so 1(125) - 2012Chien luoc "Chuoi ngoc trai'
trUdng h(3p cd khiing hoang, bat ky ai, kenh dao P a n a m a trUde day. Dii an nay ciing cd the cam van con dUdng nay. ne'u t h a n h hien thiie ed the lat ngU(?e can Hien cd de'n 95% d l u sii dung d Trung can quyen lUe b ehau A theo hUdng ed Icii Qud'e dxicic van tai b l n g dUdng bien, va eho Trung Qud'e b l n g each giiip hai quan 80%) trong so' dd phai di ngang qua eo dang md rong ciing nhU ddi tau budn cua bien tren'^"' Do dd, Malacca nam trong nUdc nay de tie'p can vdi mdt dai da't trai
"tuyen van tai dau md huyel mach tren dai tii Ddng Phi tdi Nhat Ban va ban dao bien" cua T r u n g Qud'e, nhUng hien nay Trieu Tien. Tren thUe te, ke hoach nay lai la khu vUc ngoai t i m kiem soat ciia gap khd khan va khd trien khai vi sii Trung Qud'c'^*^' chd'ng dd'i chfnh tri d Indonesia,
Vdi tam quan trong nhU tren, eo bien Malaysia va Singapore. Ngay ban than Malacca dxicic xem la thach thiic trong vi Iri lanh dao tai Thai Lan hay bi lung qua t n n h t h e n k h a i chie'n Ixicic "Chudi lay nen quan he giQa Thai Lan va Trung ngoc trai" cua T r u n g Quoc. De giai quye't Qudc se khd dam bao"°'
dxicic van de nay, T r u n g Qud'c da tang O khu viic An Do DUdng, can eii cUdng md'i quan he vdi Myanmar b l n g Gwadar ciia Pakistan cd vi trf r a t quan each mua khf dd't va dat mot dUdng d'ng trong trong chie'n lUde "Chudi ngoc trai"
din d l u dai g i n 2.500km giiia cang Gang Gwadar nd'i lien tuyen dUdng bien Kyaukpyu, do Trung Qud'c xay diing d cuta Trung Ddng, vCing Vinh vdi Pakistan, sdng Irrawaddy, va tinh Van Nam (Trung d l u md se dUde chuyen chd ve Trung Qud'e). Vdi mot cang thii hai la Thilawa Qud'c b l n g dUdng bien eung nhU dUdng giiip cung ed' them Id'i ra d Myanmar, bd. Cae tuyen dUdng nd'i Trung Qud'c vdi Trung Qud'e ddng thdi thie't lap mot tram An Do DUdng qua Myanmar, An Do va chin sdng dien tii tren q u i n dao Coco Pakistan tao nen sii chuyen chd t h u a n (Myanmar), trong vinh Bengale'^^. tien, kinh te ciing nhU tang eUdng an Vao t h a n g 11-2003, Trung Qud'e ky ninh nang lUdng eho Trung Qud'c. Cac vi mot hiep Ude vdi Campuchia v l viec t h Trung Qud'c xay diing hien tai d cang cung ca'p khi tai q u a n sU va hua'n luyen Gwadar, dxicic xem la mot trie'n vong "hai ddi lai quyen chon each thiic xay diing ben cung ed l<?i" eho ea Trung Qud'c lan tuye'n dUdng s i t tii m i l n N a m Trung Pakistan. Trong qua trinh canh t r a n h Qud'e d i n vinh Thai Lan'^«' Trung Qud'e An Do Pakistan hien nay, mot cang ciing dua ra mot dii an d i y t h a m vong hien dai tai Gwadar se nang t i m nang 20 ti USD xay diing mdt con kenh bang l^c chie'n lU^c cua Pakistan doc theo bd ngang viing Kra I s t h m u s cua Thai Lan bie'n so vdi An Do. Trung Qud'e eung iing giiip t a u be di t i t qua die'm t h i t mit tai phiidng tien de' md mang Gwadar va Idt eo bie'n Malacca'^^' Day la mot dii an vdi ^^dng cho q u y i n t i l p can trong tUdng lai quy md tUdng dUdng dii an xay diing qua viec tai trci p h i n ldn dii an 1,2 ti
NGHIEN ClJfU TRUNG QUOC so 1 ( 1 2 5 ) - 2 0 1 2 7 1
USD va cung iing chuyi'n vi("Mi ky t h u a l gdm hang (ram ky sif. Day dxicie xem la nhu'ng c() s(') (luan (long (!(• (|uan he. giiia Trung Qu(~)c va Pakistan p h a i tii(~'n. Tu' khi viec xay dUng bat dAu nam 2002, Trung Quc")c da dau tu' gAj) 4 lAn so Pakislan va ddng g(')p m(")t khoang pbu trd 200 trieu IISD cho vice xay diing m()t dUdng eao t(V nd'i lien (Iwadar vdi Karachi (mot dao cd vi tii chii'n lUdc quan Irong nia Trung (Ju(')c ciing dang nham ldi)""
Cang Gwadar lao ra cho Trung Qud'e mot ed sd chie'n lUde, eho phep inibc nay md rdng anh hUdng lai khu vUe Trung Ddng va Trung A. Dii an Gwadar da nang lAm cam k i t vc chie'n lUdc, ngoai giao va kinh t l giuta Pakistan va T r u n g Qud'c, trong dd tao cd sd de T r u n g Qud'e ed m a t vutng ehae tai An Do DUdng.
Vdi sii cd m a t d cac "vien ngoc trai"
tren, Trung Qud'e da ed the san sang bao ve t a u chd dau khi ve de'n Trung Qud'c an toan. Tuy nhien, yeu c l u cap bach thii hai cua T r u n g Qud'e cdn la viec dam bao kha nang kiem soat An Do DUdng, trong trUdng hdp dung do vdi mot trong nhiing dd'i t h u tiem lang m a n h n h i t la An Do. Vdi muc tieu tren, Trung Qudc da cd mat d hai cang bien khac trong vCing bien An Do DUdng: cang Chittagong ciia Bangladesh, va cang Hambantota d Sri Lanka. Ddng thdi, Trung Qud'c dang n g l m nghia rat g i n hai q u i n dao nhd ngoai khdi Ddng Phi:
cae dao qud'c Maldives va Seychelles'''^' Trong dd, dao quoc Seychelles la qud'c gia cd 150 hdn dao vdi dien tfch chi
450km''^ nhUng sd hOu vCing dac q u y i n kinh to rong tdi 1,3 trieu km^, an ngut luy(''ii dudng van chuyen qudc te t r e n An Dc) DUdng. Cling vdi Mauritius, ScychelUis la mot bo ph&n cua q u i n dao C'hagos, tiing thu hiit sii quan tam dac l)i("'l ciia eac eUdng qud'e bien gdm: Bd Dao Nha, P h a p , Anh, My, Nga va hien nay la T r u n g (^ud'c. Do! vdi T r u n g Qud'c, Seychelles ed vi t r i k h a quan trong trong qua trinh t h e n khai chie'n Ixicic "Chudi ngoc trai" eiia minh. N h a n thiic dUdc lam quan trong eua dao qud'c nay, nhiing nam g i n day T r u n g Qud'e eiing da lang eUdng quan he vdi Seychelles. Ta'l ca nhiing ddng thai p h a t trien liic liidng hai quan ciia T r u n g Qudc dUdc phfa Trung Qud'c giai thich ddn gian nha't "la do nhu c l u cua T r u n g Qud'e bao ve cac dUdng giao thdng thUdng mai huy(}'l mach"""''.
Tat ca nhiing hoat ddng ciia Trung Qudc d k h u viie An Do Dudng da khien Chinh phii An Do khd chiu va r a t lo ngai tdi an ninh da't nUde hi de doa. Quan he giuta hai qud'c gia khdng id chau A nay lau nay vd'n da khdng man ma, n h a t la ke tii khi nd ra chie'n t r a n h bien gidi nam 1962. Tii dd den nay, tuy khdng xay ra cac cuoc xung dot vii t r a n g ldn, nhUng tai dUdng bien gidi hai nUdc ludn cd cac vu t r a n h chap lanh thd cua nhau gay g i t . Vdi viec T r u n g Qud'c dang xay diing cac cang nUdc sau b phfa Ddng va phfa Tay ciing nhU sii vUdt troi cua Trung Qud'c ve doanh so' b a n vii khi cho cac nUdc An Do DUdng, An Do lo ngai hi Trung Qud'c bao vay neii khdng nhanh
72
NGHIEN CAU TRUNG OUOC so 1(125) - 2012Chien luoc "Chuoi ngoc trai'
chdng md rdng t i m a n h hudng. TrUde thi trUdng cho x u i t khau, chiem hiiu tai dien bien nay An Do dang tim each hcip nguyen nang lUdng va nguyen lieu, va tac vdi cac qud'c gia trong khu viic de xay nang cao tam vdc qud'c t l cua minh.
dung nhiing v a n h dai chd'ng lai qua Trung Qud'c dang xay diing chiln lUdc trinh trien k h a i chien lUde "Chudi ngoc "hai dUdng xanh" va chuyen tii "phdng trai" Cac ldi ich chinh tri va thUdng mai ngii bien gin", sang phat trien theo chdng lan cua T r u n g Qud'e va An Do nay hUdng "hai quan viln dUdng" Va chinh dang thiic day canh t r a n h va th^m chi la sU gia tang phu thude vao eae t u y i n giao canh t r a n h quye't liet n h i l u hdn v l hai thdng hang hai se budc lUc lUi^ing Hai quan so vdi tren bo. Su "vUdn minh" I n quan Trung Qud'c phai ganh nhiing tUdng cua T r u n g Qud'e d a t ra nhiing md'i nhiem vu mdi''*^' Do dd, nhiing "vien phiic tap ve thach thiie va cd hdi cho My, ^igoc trai" trd nen vd ciing quan trong dd'i ca trong mat k h u viie l l n toan c l u . Bao vdi chien lUdc bien mdi eua Trung Qud'c.
cao Qud'c hdi n a m 2005 cua Uy ban My Neu k i t nd'i nhQng "vien ngoc trai" ma Trung da ghi n h a n : "Tren quy md toan Trung Qud'c dang xay dUng tii khu vUc clu, Trung Qud'c t a n g eUdng hoat dong ^ i e n Ddng, tii cac cang trai dai tii dao bao ve an ninh n a n g lUdng qua nhQng Hai Nam den khu viie Trung Ddng thi phUdng each ma nd bao trUdc la se triic ^hudi ngoc trai gid'ng nhU mot vanh dai tilp canh t r a n h v l tai nguyen nang bao quanh luc dia ehau A. N i u Trung lUdng vdi My. D i l u nay tao r a kha nang Q^o^ tuyen bd'ehu quyin ta't ea eac p h i n xung dot giQa hai qud'c gia"'^^' Ta't ca ^^nh thd ndi tren, qud'c gia nay se cd the' nhQng phan Qng t r e n buoc Trung Qud'e ^^"^ ^^^ ^^ kie'm soat eae tuye'n hang phai tinh de'n trong qua trinh xay dUng ^^' ^a'p nap va trong y l u nha't de' k i l m chiln lUdc "Chudi ngoc trai" cua minh. ^^^' ^ h a t Ban va H a n Qud'c, ngan chan My tiep can vung duyen hai chau A va 4. Bien Dong trong chie'n luoc "Chudi ^^ ^^^ ^^-p ^^^ ^^^^ ^^-p ^^^ ^ h a i Binh ngoc t r a i " ciia T r u n g Quoc DUdng. De' chiln lU(?c "Chudi ngoc trai"
Nhin tQ goc do c h i l n Ixidc, chien lUdc t h a n h edng, Bie'n Ddng dUde xem la chile
"Chudi ngoc trai" ma Trung Qud'c dang chia khda quan trong. NhU vay, trong xay dung n h i m md rdng a n h hudng tQ chien liide de p h a t trien t h a n h "cUdng dao Hai Nam d Bie'n Ddng sang phia Tay Qud'c bie'n, Trung Quoc dang ddi hdi eac qua CFC tuye'n dQdng h a n g hai ta'p nap yeu sach trong vung Bien Dong, va day nha't cua the' gidi cho de'n vinh Persian, trd t h a n h khu vQc quan trong trong qua qua do dam bao an ninh n a n g IxiOng va trinh hinh t h a n h "Chudi ngoc trai" ciia kiem soat cac tuyen dQdng h a n g hai Trung Qudc.
quan trong cua the gidi. Thiic te, Trung Qud'c cd nhQng ldi ich Hoat dong ngoai giao va kinh t l cua Quan trong b Bien Ddng nhU: DUdng Trung Qud'c hien n a y hQdng ve dam bao bie'n quan trong van chuyen hang hda
NGHIEN CUU TRUNG QUOC so 1 ( 1 2 5 ) - 2 0 1 2 yg
phuc vu ph;it Iric'Mi kinh lc"-: sd lUdng dau nhap khau eliieni HO",, nhu cau Irong nu'(')c, trong dd 10% scYdAu nh;jp khAu nay phai van chuyen qua Hi('-n l)(')ng; ('Ac ngudn tai nguyt'm bu'n, trong (l(') (luan trong nhat la dAu khi va hai san dc phuc vu eho p h a i trien kinh uV"'' Do do, tQ nhiing nam 1990, Trung (iu(")c dang tim each md r(}iig khu vxic dac quy('Mi kinh le tai Bi('n D('')ng, dac l)iet l;ii cac dao d quan dao I loang Sa, TrUdng Sa thu(^)c ciui (luyen ciia Viel Nam. Tai Bien Ddng, Trung C^iuVc dang tim each sii dung siic manh hai quan de gia lang kiem soat khdng ehl cac ngudn lAi nguyen d l u khi ngoai khdi ma cdn kiem soat eae tuyen dudng bien. Thiie sii, Bien Ddng cdn cd y nghia la khu vUc a n h hUdng sd'ng cdn, va la ciia ngo c h i l n lUde d l u tien de Trung Qud'c di ra the gidi. Viec cae lUe lQ(?ng quan sii cua T r u n g Qud'c chan cae t a u ciia My, thii p h a n Qng ciia My vdi d l nghi chia k h u viie anh hQdng d Thai Binh DQdng, de doa va b i t bd eac tau t h u y i n ciia cac nUdc t r a n h chap, xay dQng can cQ t a u n g l m chien lUdc d Tam A la nhQng minh chQng rd r a n g v l quan niem ciia gidi chinh tri va quan sQ Trung Qud'e ve t i m quan trong ciia Bien Ddng va tUdng lai eua vung bien nay trong chien lUcJe eUdng qud'c cua Trung Qud'c.
TQ thiic t l dd, Bien Ddng tQ nay thuoc cac "ldi ich sd'ng cdn" ciia Trung Qud'c''^'
Trong nhQng n a m gan day, Trung Qud'e trien khai n h i l u bien phap de ciing cd' cd sd phap ly ciia eac yeu sach va day m a n h hoat ddng tuyen t r u y i n ve chii
(}uyen d Bien Ddng, phe p h a n h a n h vi eiia eae qu(';'c gia khac cung vdi viec nha'n
1)1,1 nh thai (i() kidm ehe va h a n h vi tQ ve ciia T r u n g QIK'K:. TiC^p theo Luat Lanh hai va Vung t i l p giap (1992), Lu^t ve Vung dac quyen kinh te va t h i m luc dia (1998), T r u n g Quoc di them mot bUdc nham thiel lap cd quan quan ly hanh chinh ddi vdi cac quAn da(j t r a n h chap.
Px'ii canh dd, T r u n g Qud'e cung thdng (pia hang loat van ban p h a p ly n h i m ki('n toan bo may nha nUde quan ly ve hien, hai dao nhU CUcfng yeu phdt trien hdi dUdng vdi Tdm nhin 2020 (thang 6- 2010), Ke hogch xdy diing khu kinh te Qudng Tdy, Chiicfng trinh hd trp cdng ddn sit dung cdc ddo khdng ngUdi (nham vao TrUdng Sa va Hoang Sa). Tren thiic te, trong eae nd lUe n h a m k h a n g dinh chii q u y i n va q u y i n kiem soat, Trung Qud'c lien tue ngan can cac hoat ddng khai thac tai nguyen cua cac nQdc khac bat chap eae hoat dgng dd n i m trong vung dac q u y i n kinh le cua ho'"**'. NhQng h a n h ddng nay ciia T r u n g Qud'c da tao nen sU cang t h a n g trong k h u vQc, anh hQdng triic liep den sQ phat trien ciia cac nQdc trong Bien Ddng.
De hd trd cac hoat dong kiem soat va lao diing tien de eho viec kiem soat Bien Ddng trong tQdng lai, T r u n g Qud'c ra siic hien dai hda iQc iQdng hai quan va khdng quan, ciing cd' va p h a t trien cac can cQ, cd sd q u a n sQ va d a n sQ d vung duyen hai va d nhieu vi trf trong quan dao TrUdng Sa va Hoang Sa thuoc chu q u y i n cua Viet N a m . N a m 2008, mot ve
74
NGHIEN Clini TRUNG OUOC s o 1(125) - 2012Chien luoc "Chuoi ngoc trai"...
tinh thUdng mai p h a t hien Trung Qud'e linh ap dat va m a n h bao n h i m khang xay diing mot can cQ hai quan d Tam A dinh ehii q u y i n phap ly cung kha nang tren dao Hai Nam. Thang 12-2007, Hai kie'm soat bien tren thiie te. NhU vay, quan Trung Qud'e da dUa chile tau ngam Trung Qud'e tQ chien lUde "an minh chd nguyen tii 094 dau tien ciia ho v l can cQ thdi" nay da chuyen sang chien lUdc an nay. Hang khdng m l u h a m hay eac loai ninh va dd'i ngoai mang tfnh khang dinh tau khae ed k h a n a n g tung liie Ixicing tae hdn, ehii ddng va quyet liet hdn.
chiln di xa cung ed the d a t ban doanh Xem xet ky nhQng ddng thai cua tai Tam A'''^' Thiie te, tUdng quan liie Trung Qud'c d Bien Ddng tQ trong nhQng Ixicing quan sii d vung Bien Ddng ed kha nam g i n day eho tha'y viee dieu ehinh nang thay ddi mot khi cae edng trinh chii ddng trong chien lUcJc bien va chfnh quan sii d Tam A dxicic Trung Qud'c hoan saeh cua Trung Qud'c vdi t r a n h chap tai thanh. Vdi can cQ nay, Trung Qud'e lang Bien Ddng mue tieu la n h i m tien tdi cUdng sQc m a n h de thiic thi cae tuyen bo kiem soat toan bd Bien Ddng, trong dd chu quyin cua ho d Bie'n Ddng, bao ve tUdng lai xa hdn la kie'm soat tuyen cac tuyen h a n g hai trong yeu qua eo dUdng hang hai quan trong tQ Bien bien Malacca va p h a t trie'n cae kha nang Ddng ra d i n An Do DUdng. NhQng h a n h hau can cho liic iQdng hai quan trie'n dong cua Trung Qud'c d Bie'n Ddng g i n khai d Bie'n Ddng. Cung luc dd, Trung day eho tha'y gidi lanh dao Trung Qud'e Qud'c cung md rdng san bay d dao Phu nhin n h a n Bie'n Ddng chu y l u d gde do Lam trong q u i n dao Hoang Sa, eung co dia chfnh tri va dia chien lUde. Theo dd, can cQ quan sU d Bai ChQ Thap trong Bien Ddng la khdng gian Icii fch song q u i n dao TrUdng Sa vdi he thd'ng ra-da cdn, la ciia ngo de' t i l n xud'ng khu viic canh bao sdm, duy tri sQ hien dien lien ^ d n g Nam A, va vQdn xa hdn trd t h a n h tuc tai Bai da n g l m Vanh Khan ngoai ^Qdng qud'e dai dUdng. Cd the' tha'y vdi khdi bd bie'n phia Tay Philippines'^"' ^Qe m a n h kinh t l va quan sU tang len rr . -^^ . • • rr n -' n h a n h chdng, Trung Qud'e dang phan Tren m a t t r a n ngoai giao, Trung Quoc ^ ^ , T -. v .' dau vUdn len trd t h a n h mdt cUdng qud'c
toan c l u , mot eUdng qud'c bien, trong dd coi Bien Ddng vQa la m i t xfch quan lien tuc p h a n ddi yeu saeh cua cac qudc
gia khae cung vdi eac nd liie n h i m da
phQdng hda va qud'c te hda t r a n h chap. , , , ry^ v j ^ r r . / - . - ' ^ - . ^ v T - u ' trong trong tuyen phdng thu hai quan Ben canh do, T r u n g Quoe da tU heu hoa • ° & J t-
, - • . ^ i i . - - ' •> - u u ^ •- chien lUdc va nam trong pham vi anh nhUng yeu sach bien eua m m h bang viee
dinh kem mdt b a n dd ve "dUdng dQt ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ «°^S ^ ° " cua Trung Qudc, vQa la khiic chin doan" (hay dUdng lUdi bd) tao ^^^ ^^^ ^^^^^ l^'?^ ^^ ^' '^ ^^^ ^'^'•
thanh mot chQ U bao vay toan bo Bie'n Sii d i l u chinh each tiep can eiia Ddng'^^\ Mong mud'n kie'm soat Bie'n Trung Quoe la nguyen n h a n cd ban Ddng, ngay cang trd nen rd r a n g qua khien quan he giQa Trung Quoc va cac nhilu tuyen bd', bien phap, h a n h ddng cd nQdc t r a n h cha'p khae trd nen cang
NGHIEN CliU TRUNG QUOC so 1 ( 1 2 5 ) - 2 0 1 2 yg
t h i n g . Sau 5 nam ra dcii, Tuyen bd' v l Qng x^ eua cAc bc'n b Bie'n Ddng (DOC) giQa Trung Qiu'ie va cac nUde AS LAN khdng dii d("' ngan Ir.iiih eliA'p Hitin Ddng ngay cang ndng va trd t h a n h nguy cd hien hQu ddi vdi hda binh, on dinh d khu vUc va tinh hQu nghi giQa eae qud'e gia trong khu vQc. Hien lai, Trung (^u'lc vAn chQa dii siic manh chfnh tri va quAn sQ do kiem soal loan bd Bien D(")ng va khdng mud'n cang t h a n g bien t h a n h bai ("m, xung dot quiin ^xi. Do dd, lanh dao Trung Qud'c ludn Iran an eae nUde trong khu viic va keu goi cAn phai ed hda binh, dn dinh, va hdp tae. Nghich ly la, Trung Qud'e trUdc h i t sii dung luan diem "giQ dai cue" de Iran an eac nUde vQa va nhd trong khu vUe, trong khi t i l p tue duy tri sii map md trong chfnh sach an ninh bien va svf dung n h i l u chien t h u a t khac nhau de gianh t h i chu ddng va q u y i n kiem soat thiic te d Bien Ddng. Chinh sach map md, nhQng h a n h ddng ddn phUdng va m a n h bao ciia T r u n g Qud'c d Bien Ddng da lam cac nUdc trong khu vUc them nghi ngd c h i l n IxiOc "phat trien hda binh" va "ngoai giao hai hda" ciia B l e K i n h " " N h i l u nUdc ASEAN nhin nhan an ninh Ddng Nam A va an ninh qud'c gia cua ho bi de doa trUde qua trinh hien dai quan sii n h a n h ehdng mot each t h i l u minh bach cua T r u n g Qud'c'"'
Tren thiic t l , an ninh d Bien Ddng la mot he thd'ng da t a n g nac va da van de vdi da dd'i tQdng. O day, cd cac van de t r a n h chap chii quyen, lanh thd xay ra giQa hai nUdc trong k h u vUc. Ben canh dd, cung cd cac van d l qud'c te lien quan
de'n eac qud'e gia ben ngoai khu viic nhU vAii do an toan va an ninh h a n g hai qua cAc vung bidn qud'c te. Mac du da cd nhieu boat dong tim kie'm giai phap ciia ca(; l)(';n d('; hUdng tdi giai quyet xung dot hien nay b Bien D(')ng nhUng sii cang t h i n g khdng giam ma ng^y cang tang.
Cd the- ndi, viec T r u n g Qud'c ne t r a n h cac giai phap m a n g tfnh tfch ciic de giai quyet nhQng cang t h a n g b Bien Ddng deu ed muc dfch. Xet t r e n quan diem chiln lUde, viec thieu v l n g mot giai phap cho eac t r a n h chap tai Bien Ddng se cho phdp T r u n g Qud'c, la ben cd sQc manh mem va cQng ap dao hdn he't, ed n h i l u cd hoi nha't de gia t a n g sii kiem soat tren thiie Le eua ho va lam suy y l u vi the cua cae nUde khac. Mac du giQa ASEAN va Trung Qud'c da ky Tuyen bd' chung ve Qng xii ciia cac ben d Bien Ddng song tuyen bd' nay da khong dUdc thQc thi trong sud't thdi gian qua. Hien tai, quan chQc cua cac nUdc dang d a m phan kha nang ky ket mot Bd luat Qng xut (COC) b Bien Ddng ed tfnh r a n g buoc cao hdn.
5. Ket luan
Trong nhQng n a m d l u the ki XXI, T r u n g Qud'c da d a t dQdc nhieu thanh tliu dang ke ve k i n h te, trd t h a n h mot cUdng qud'c thiie sQ dQng h a n g thQ hai sau My. Ben canh dd, T r u n g Qud'c phai dd'i m a t vdi tinh t r a n g thieu h u t nang Ixicing t r i m trong do n h u c l u p h a t t h e n kinh te va tieu d u n g xa hoi. Sii le thuoc vao cac ngudn n h a p k h a u ben ngoai de doa sQ p h a t trien ben vQng cua nen kinh te. Trung Qud'c da budc d l u de r a cac
76
NGHIEN CAl TRUNG OUtiC sd' 1(125) - 2012Chien luac "Chudi ngoc trai'
bien p h a p de d a m bao an ninh nang lUdng cho qud'e gia. TQ n h a n thQc tren, cac n h a chien iQdc Trung Qud'e eho r i n g viec kiem soat dUdng bien la mot dilu kien khdng the thieu dUde va la y l u td' quylt dinh cho sii trdi dSy cua Trung Qud'c. N h u vay, dam bao eae tuye'n giao thdng tren bien dUde xem la mue tic'u ro rang n h a t eua T r u n g Qud'e trong viee t h e n khai chie'n \xiOc "Chudi ngoc trai"
Thdng qua c h i l n lUde "Chudi ngoc trai", Trung Qud'e mud'n md rdng anh hudng cua minh tQ Hai Nam, xuyen qua nhQng tuyen dUdng bien nhdn nhip nha't t h i gidi, hudng tdi vinh Ba Tu, mue tieu chu yeu la k i l m che An Do, dam bao an ninh n a n g iQdng va kiem soat nhQng tuyin h a n g h a i q u a n trong. Chiln lUdc
"Chudi ngoc trai" cua Trung Qud'c n h i m hudng de'n viee gia t a n g sQe m a n h nang iQdng, kinh te va q u a n sU, va t h a m vong trd t h a n h cQdng qud'c bien trong tUdng lai. Cd the ndi, chinh nhQng n h u cau bQc thiet trong nQdc, Trung Qud'c da tam thdi bd qua hinh a n h "phat trien hda binh" de lan xud'ng Bien Ddng mot each manh bao, t h a m chi dQng tren luat phap qud'c te, vUdn t i m kiem soat d i n vung bien An Do DUdng. Chie'n lUdc "Chudi ngoc trai" da the hien sQ "trdi day" m a n h me cue. Trung Qud'c va hoc Id t h a m vong to ldn cua ho. T r u n g Qud'c da vUdt qua giai doan " I n minh chd thdi" k h i l n ca the gidi lo ngai.
De chien iQdc "Chudi ngoc trai" t h a n h cdng, Bien Ddng dxiOc xem la chiec chia khda quan trong. ThQc chat cua tinh
trang cang t h a n g tren Bien Ddng chfnh la viec Trung Qud'e mud'n gia tang anh hudng len khu vUe, gay sQe ep len cac nQdc ASEAN, ddng thdi tham dd phan Qng eiia eac nUdc ldn: My, Nga va An Do.
Trong tfnh toan ciia cac nha chiln Ixicic Trung Qud'c, Bien Ddng la khdng gian ldi ich sd'ng cdn, la eiia ngo de t i l n xud'ng khu viic Ddng Nam A, va vUdn xa hdn trd t h a n h cUdng qud'e dai dUdng.
Cac nUdc trong khu viie ehau A Thai Binh DUdng d l u ehi trich manh me hanh ddng ciia Trung Qud'c la di ngUde lai nhQng cam k i t ma ho da ky k i t va xem thQdng luat phap qud'c t l . Trong bd'i canh cang t h a n g hien nay, cac nUde ldn, dac biet la My se "can dU" n h i l u hdn vao Bien Ddng Cac nUde ASEAN b i t d l u ed sii lien minh trong viec ehdng lai qua trinh banh trUdng "anh hudng" eiia Trung Qud'e. Quan diem eua cac nUdc ldn n h u Hoa Ky, Trung Qud'c va cae nUdc khac d l u thd'ng n h a t mot diem la phai duy tri mdi trUdng hda binh, on dinh tren Bien Ddng. Hoa Ky tuyen bd' se khdng dQng ve phfa t r a n h chap nao, nhQng phai dam bao an ninh hang hai, dam bao cae hoat ddng tren vung bien qud'c t l trong k h u vQc nay.
CHU THICH:
(1) X6t trSn thirc te', viec phat tri^n chien \\ipc
"Chu6i ngoc trai" co the khong ro rang la mot chien lUdc dxicic Chinh phu Trung Quoc chi dao.
(2) Thang 12-2003, trong bai phat bieu tai Dai hoc Havard, Thu tu6ng Trung Quoc On Gia Bao da de cap "Trung Quoc ngay nay la
NGHIEN CU(U TRUNG QUOC s o 1(125) - 2 0 1 2
77
mot nU6c 16n crii each mci ciia va troi day hoa binh" Cung trong thang 12-2003, Chu lich Trung QiuYc Ho (Tun Dao Irong pliat bieu lai Toa dam ky ni(Mn 110 nam ngay sinli ctia Mao Trach Dc'mg da nha'n manh "Trung Quo'e phiii kie'n tri dUdng hVi phiil tric'-ii IrSi day hoa binh". Tuy nliiT-n, trU6c phan iing ciia du luan quiVc t("' va trong nU6c, Trung Quoc C(') di(?u chinh, Iranh dd cap d(!n kh.'ii nitnn "tn")i day hoa binh" vii thay b l n g "phat trien hoa binh' (Xem Pham Sao Mai, "Ngi ham chien lUdc phat triC'ii li(");i hinh cua Trung Quoc'', Tap chi Nghien cd'ii (^uoe te, so'
1 (84), 2011, tr. lV.l-64).
(3) Nguyen Ccnig Minh, "Mot so' n(''t ve chinh sach ngoai giao lang gieng mdi ciia Trung Quoc", Tap chf Nghien cdu Qud'c te, so' 3 (74), 2008, tr. 31.
(4) Avery Goldstein, Rising to the Challenge: China's Grand Strategy and International Security, Stanford, CA:
Stanford University Press, 2005, pp. 12-13.
(5) Joseph S. Nye, "The Rise of China's Soft Power", Wall Street Journal, December 29, 2005.
(6) Cheng Bijian, "China's 'Peaceful Rise' to Great Power Status", Foreign Affairs, September/October 2005, pp. 23-24.
(7) Xem them Christopher J. Pehrson, String of Pearls: Meeting the Challenge of China's Rising Power across the Asian Littoral, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S.
Army College, July 2006.
(8) Theo Nguyen Cong Minh, T^i lieu da d i n , tr. 36.
(9) Thu Hien Thuy Lien, "Tinh hinh kinh te Trung Qudc nam 2010 (04/03/2011)".
(10) Nam 2009, Thii tudng Trung Qudc On Gia Bao tuyen bo' se hien dai hoa quan doi Trung Quo'e t r e n moi linh vUc, trong do CO n h a n manh den lUc lxi6ng Hai quan. Hai
quan Trung (JUCK; dxicic xay dUng theo 3 nguy(';n l;ic: Lau 16n, vii khi manh va co can cii; mot (l(;)i thUdng thuyen h u n g hau; va mot he lh(*mg quf/c gia le thuoc hay dong minh, vdi phUrjng cham '.) chO: "Giit gdn bd, tranh bien gdn, ra dgi dUOng (Bao clln ngan, tranh can hai, xual vi(m dUdng). Dan theo Nguyen Ngoc TrUfJng, "My-Trung: Cong sinh va doi khang''
(11) Vi^n Khoa hoc Xa hoi Trung Qudc, S;ich Viing thUc lUc quan sU Trung Quoc.
(12) China's Position Paper on the New Security Concept, .Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, July 31, 2002.
(13) Avery Goldstein, Rising to the Challenge: China's Grand Strategy and International Security, Sdd, pp. 121-123.
(14) "SCO: A New Power Center Developing'', Strategic Forecasting, October 28, 2005.
(15) Robert G. Sutter, China s Rise in Asia, Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefeld,
2005, p. 64.
(16) Cheng Bijian, Tai lieu da dan, pp. 18- 19.
(17) Christopher J. Pehrson, Tai lieu da d i n .
(18) U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2005 Report to
Congress, Washington, DC: U.S.
Government Printing Offce, 2005, p. 166.
(19) Cheng Bijian, Tai lieu da d i n , p. 166.
(20>) U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2004 Report to Congress, Washington, DC: U.S.
Government Printing Offce, 2004, p. 154.
(21) David Zweig Bi J i a n h a i , "China's Global H u n t for Energy", Foreign Affairs, September/October 2005, p. 25.
(22) J o n a t h a n E. Sinton, et al..
Evaluation of China's Energy Strategy
78
NGHIEN CllU TRUNG OUic so 1(125) - 2012Chien luac "Chuoi ngpc trai"...
Options, Berkeley, CA: China Energy Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, May 2005, p. 13.
(23) Thong tan xa Viet Nam, Trung Qudc:
Nhitng xu hUdng hien dgi hoa hdi qudn. Tai lieu tham khao dac biet, ngay 12-6-2011, tr. 5.
(24) David Zweig Bi J i a n h a i , Tai lieu da din, pp. 25-26.
(25) 2005 Report to Congress, p. 164.
(26) Thong ta'n xa Viet Nam, Tai lieu da din, tr. 5.
(27) Xem Mahnaz Zahirinejad Vrushal Ghoble, "Energy Factor in China-Iran Relations", Journal of Peace Studies, Vol. 17, Issue 2 & 3, April-September, 2010.
(28) 2005 Report to Congress, p. 168.
(29) Robert G. Sutter, Tai lieu da d i n , p.
250.
(30) David Zweig Bi J i a n h a i , Tai lieu da din, p. 29.
(31) Thong t a n xa Viet Nam, Tai lieu da din, tr. 2.
(32) "U.S. Is Threatened By 'Aggressive Chinese Sea' Power", Al Jazeera, September 14, 2005.
(33) Xem Micheal Mazza, "China and the Lost Pearls''
(34) Robert D. Kaplan, "Center Stage for the 21*' Century- Power Plays in the Indian Ocean", Foreign Affairs, March/April 2009.
(35) Liu Jiangping Feng Xianhui,
"Going Global: Dialogue Spanning 600 Years", Beijing Liaowang in Chinese, July 11, 2005, pp. 14-15; Nayan Chandra,
"Crouching Tiger, Swimming Dragon'', New York Times, April 11, 2005, p. A19.
(36) Liu Jiangping Feng Xianhui, Tai lieu da d i n , p. 16.
(37) J e a n Guisnel, "Bases navales: Le
"collier de perles chinois""
(38) Bruce Vaughn, China-Southeast Asia Relations: Trends, Issues, and Implications for the United States, CRS Report for
Congi(-ss, February 8, 2005, p. 24.
(39) "String of Pearls: Military Plan to Protect China's Oil", Agence France Presse (AFP), J a n u a r y 18, 2005.
(40) Xem Christopher J. Pehrson, Tai lieu dii dan.
(41) Sudha Ramachandran, "China's Pearl in Pakistan s Water,'' Asia Times Online, March 17, 2005
(42) J e a n Guisnel, Tai lieu da d i n .
(43) Thong tan xa Viet Nam, Tai lieu da d i n , tr. 6.
(44) 2005 Report to Congress, p. 171.
(45) Thong tan xa Viet Nam, Tai lieu da d i n , tr. 2.
(46) Do Thanh Hai Nguydn Thuy Linh,
"Chinh sach cua Trung Quoc do'i v6i tranh chap Bien Dong tii nam 2007 den nay", Tap chi Nghien cdu qud'c te, s6^3 (84), 2011, tr. 91.
(47) G i n day, chinh tri cua Trung Quoc
"danh tieng" trong viec nang cap Bien Dong trci thanh khu vUc "l(3i ich cot loi" Theo tin tiic bao chi quoc te, Trung Quoc l l n d l u tien coi van de Bien Dong thuoc "l(3i ich cot I5i" trong chuyen tham Trung Quoc ciia Thii truSng Ngoai giao My Steinberge vao thang 3-2010.
Tuy tCr do den nay, chUa thay lanh dao Trung Quoc CO phat bieu cong khai noi Bien Dong la
"l(3i ich co't loi", nhUng khi bao chi trong va ngoai Trung Quoc r i m ro dUa tin, cac kenh nha nU6c cua Trung Quoc cung khong c6 phan do'i hay dinh chinh chinh thiic.
(48) D6 Thanh Hai Nguyen Thiiy Linh, Tai lieu da d i n , tr. 77.
(49) "Can cii hai quan Tam A: Chii bai trong chien lUdc kho'ng che Bien Dong", RFI, ngay 15-9-2008.
NGHIEN CUfU TRUNG QUOC so 1(125) - 2012
79
(50) Xem Carlyle A. Thayer, "The Unil(>d States and Chinese Assertivene.ss in the South China S(\i', Security Cliallenge, Vol.
G, No. 2, 2010, p. 73.
(51) Ngay 7-5-2009, Trung Quoc da cong khai ban dd diidng lUdi bo kCnn theo cong h^m plian do'i bao cao ciia Viet Nam va Malaysia. ThUc chal, dUdng lUdi bo chinh thiic xuat hien l l n d l u tifai tren mot ban do do chinh quyi^Mi Cong boa Trung Hoa xual ban vko thang 2-1948, dUdc the hi('n la inol dUdng diit khiic gom co 11 doan, bao triim xung quanh v<\ bo'n nhom quan dao, bai n g l m 16n tren Bien Dong. De'n nam 1953, dudng ludi bd bi bo hai doan diit khiic, nam giiia dao Hai Nam va bd bien Viet Nam trong vinh Bac Bo, mot doan n i m giiia Dai Loan va cac dao Luu C l u (Ryu Kyu) cua Nhat Ban. Tii thdi diem nay, dUdng lUdi bo chi con 9 doan. Tren thUc te, yeu sach dudng ludi bb cua Trung Quoc la phi ly. Dudng lUdi bd khong chi bi Viet Nam ma ngay ca Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines... phan do'i vi sU phi ly va thieu cd sci cua no. Ngay khi no xuat hien, ngay 8-5-2009, Viet Nam va Malaysia ciing giuti cong ham phan doi lai.
Ngay 8-7-2010, Indonesia giii cong ham len Lien HOp Quoc, trong do noi ro dUdng lUdi bb khong c6 cd sd nao trong luat phap quo'e te.
Ngay 5-4-2011, Philippines cung giii cong ham len Lien Hdp Quoc phan doi dUdng lUdi bd. Tat nhiJng nhiing hanh dong nay cho t h i y , cong dong quo'e te khong bao gid chap nhSn yeu sach dudng lUdi bd vo'n chie^m den 80% dien tich Bien Dong do Trung Quoc dUa ra.
(52) Evam A. Feigenbaum, "China's rise and the Contested Commons". CRF, August
13, 2010.
(53) Daljit Singh, "South China Sea tensions h u r t Southeast Asian Security", Strait Times, 16 August 2010.
80
TAI L I $ U THAM K H A O CHINH 1. Avery Goldstein, Rising to the Challenge: China's Grand Strategy and International Security, Stanford, CA:
Stanford University Press, 2005.
2. Bruce Vaughn, China-Southeast Asia Relations: Trends, Issues, and Implications for the United States, CRS Report for Congress, February 8, 2005.
3. Christopher J. Pehrson, String of Pearls: Meeting the Challenge of China's Rising Power across the Asian Littoral, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army College, J u l y 2006.
4. Do T h a n h Hai Nguyen Thuy Linh,
"Chinh sach ciia Trung Quoc ddi v6i tranh cha'p Bien Dong tif nam 2007 de'n nay". Tap chi Nghien cdu qud'c te, so'3 (84), 2011.
5. J o n a t h a n E. Sinton, et al..
Evaluation of China's Energy Strategy Options, Berkeley, CA: China Energy Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, May 2005.
6. Joseph S. Nye, "The Rise of China's Soft Power', Wall Street Journal, December 29, 2005.
7. Nguyen Cong Minh, "Mot so' net ve chinh sach ngoai giao lang gieng mdi cua Trung Quoc", Tap chi Nghien cdu Qud'c te, so' 3 (74), 2008.
8. P h a m Sao Mai, "Noi h a m chien lUdc phat trien hoa binh cua Trung Quo'e", Tap chf Nghien cdu Qudc te, sd 1 (84), 2011.
9. Robert D. Kaplan, "Center Stage for the 21^' Century- Power Plays in the Indian Ocean'', Foreign Affairs, March/April 2009.
10. Robert G. Sutter, China's Rise in Asia, L a n h a m , MD: Rowman a n d Littlefeld,
2005.
NGHIEN CIJIU TRUNG QUOC so 1(125) - 2012
