The thesis will be developed over the course of the following chapters. It has been divided into two sections: the first comprises the introduction, theoretical framework and methodology chapters; the second contains the four phases of analysis and the conclusion.
Thus Chapter Two of section one introduces the critical theory of international relations theorist Robert W. Cox, which will be used as the theoretical framework for the dissertation. On the whole this research has an explorative, emergent nature due to the “inescapable inter- subjective quality” (Kratochwil & Ruggie, 1986) of international regimes (of which climate change is but one), international collaboration and public discourse itself.
Chapter Three discusses the case study as a qualitative research methodology and its appropriateness for a study of India’s role in the UNFCCC, as well as the different kinds of data generation and analysis employed in this study. This chapter concludes with an elaboration of the limitations and delimitations of the research.
___________________________________________________________________________ Chapter 1. Introduction
Section Two begins with Chapter Four, which covers the period between 1988 and 1994, leading up to and including the negotiation of the UNFCCC in 1992. As in all four phases, an analysis is undertaken of the configuration and interaction of Robert Cox’s three types of forces at, and between, the national level in India and the international level of the climate regime.
Chapter Five covers the early years of the operation of the UNFCCC, from the first COP in 1995, through to the negotiation of strengthened commitments leading up to the Kyoto Protocol, and the operational rules in Marrakech 2004 – in sum, the pre-Kyoto Protocol years. The ratification of the Kyoto Protocol in 2005 initiates the third phase, which is analysed in chapter six. This phase encompasses the negotiations toward a second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol and thus the (in)famous COP15 at Copenhagen, which did not secure that agreement. Chapter seven covers the period 2011 to 2015. 2011 was selected as the beginning of the fourth phase of analysis since the outcome of COP17 was the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP), which mandated a process in which a “protocol, legal instrument or agreed outcome with legal force applicable to all” should be negotiated (UNFCCC, 2012a:
decision 1/CP.17). The ADP ushered in the negotiations surrounding the successor of the Kyoto Protocol, which would be agreed upon at COP21 in Paris in 2015 and implemented from 2020.
The negotiations under the Durban Platform thus also make the 2011-2015 period a natural
“unit” of analysis.
Finally, Chapter Eight concludes with a synthesis of the analysis of chapters Four, Five, Six And Seven and a concluding analysis on the role of India, the place of hegemony in the Coxian sense in the UNFCCC, and an overall answer to the research question posed.
_________________________________________________ Chapter 2. Robert Cox’s configuration of forces theory
2 Robert Cox’s theory of the configuration of forces
It is the aim of this dissertation to examine and understand the role played by India in the climate change negotiations. The climate change regime under the UNFCCC is observably in a state of flux or change. Negotiations are underway to supersede the differentiated “Annexes”
system of the KP with some other form of “protocol, legal instrument or agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all” (UNFCCC, 2012a: 1/CP.17 para. 2), to be implemented from 2020. These negotiations are pursuant to the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action agreed upon at COP17 in South Africa in 2011 (UNFCCC, 2012a: 1/CP.17 para. 4).
Flux is also apparent in the broader international milieu, as larger developing countries like China, Brazil and India begin to exert more influence in different fora. India, Brazil and South Africa (co-ordinating as the IBSA dialogue forum), for instance, form the nucleus of the G20 in the WTO negotiations and had some success in putting agricultural liberalisation on the agenda, despite the opposition of the European Union (Hurrell & Narlikar, 2006; Narlikar, 2010).
These countries now frequently dominate headlines with stories of economic growth, growing populations and emissions while developed countries work their way out of the lingering aftermath of the 2008-2009 recession and contend with declining working populations.
The flux in the UNFCCC, combined with the relative power of developed and developing countries, necessitates use of a theory of international relations that both accommodates and actively allows for the presence of change in the international system. Cox’s historical structures or “configuration of forces” theory has been selected for this purpose: it allows for change by facilitating the analysis of how the social forces of a particular period interact with each other – and in so doing characterise periods of time – and provides the frame for how people can conceive of acting and what people they choose to do.
This chapter will begin with a brief biography of Robert W. Cox to provide a context for his work and then introduce and elaborate on his configuration of forces theory. Following the theory is a discussion of Cox’s ontological stance, in particular his insistence on the historical structure as both theory and method. The configuration is a trilectic of the forces of ideas, institutions and material capabilities – these three forces interact, at times, to create a hegemonic historical structure. This discussion of hegemonic structures is followed by an exposition of the Coxian account of how change occurs and of the benefits of using his theory.