Director: Professor R. F. Henderson Director and Professor RONALD FRANK HENDERSON t Deputy Director - Econometric and Statistical Research
DUNCAN STANDON IRONMONGER
Deputy Director - Administration ROBERT BROOK LEWIS Senior Research Fellows RICHARD BAILEY SCOTTON
PETER JAMES SHEEHAN Research Fellows PETER JOHN BRAIN
BEATRICE CLAUDE MARIE DERODY GEOFFREY LEWIS REVELL DIXON
•HELEN LAYTON FERBER BARRY SELWYN GRAY DIANA MeDONALD
•JOHN SIMON McDONNELL
•HELEN JEAN OWENS
PHYLLIS BERNADETTE ROSENDALE GERARD PETER SCHUYERS
ALFRED W I L L I A M SMITH CLAIRE CHRISTINE THOMAS
RESEARCH STAFF Research Scholar ANDREW BURBIDGE
Research Assistants LOUISE BARTON JOHN PATRICK BRENNAN JENNIFER CLARE BUCHANAN
•PAMELA ISOBEL BURGESS ANTHONY DAVID CARMODY ANDREW K I M COLLARD
•STEPHEN DERRICK
•SUSAN MARY DONATH W I L L I A M FRANCIS FOSTER RODERICK NICHOLLS HARRIS
••SUSAN MARIE HOLMES BRIAN PATRICK KELLY JAMES W I L L I A M LANG ANNE ELIZABETH LEAHY VALERIE JEAN McGOWN
•COSIMA H I L A R Y McPHEE
•DEBORAH JANE N I A L L JUDITH ANNE O'NEILL APICHAI PUNTASEN PETER PAUL STRICKER PETER JOHN TAYLOR PHILIP ROBERT THEAKER
RICHARD JOHN CAMPBELL WALLIS
•ELIZABETH BLANCHE WILLIAMSON
Research Associate (in Joint Project with Brotherhood of St. Laurence) ELIZABETH BROOKE
f Personal Chair in the Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research
• Fractional full-time
• • Part-time
RESEARCH TOPICS IN PROGRESS
A. CURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND SHORT-TERM FORECASTS 1. Analysis of economic conditions in Australia - Barton, Derody, Strieker.
2. Publication of the Australian Economic Review - Sheehan, et al.
3. Surveys of consumers, attitudes and intentions — McDonnell, Derrick (with the Roy Morgan Research Centre)
75
76 FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND COMMERCE 4. Analysis of consumers, attitudes and the saving ratio - Defris.
5. Unemployment - Sheehan, Strieker.
6. Issues of macro-economic policy — Henderson, Ironmonger, Sheehan.
7. Project LINK — International linkage of econometric models - Ironmonger.
8. Quarterly mode! of sections of the Australian economy — Sheehan, Derody, Rosendale, McDonald.
B. ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING PROJECT 1. Medium and long-term forecasts of economic developments — Brain, et al.
2. Short-term forecasts of economic developments - McDonald, Rosendale, Sheehan.
3. A medium-term econometric model of the Australian economy — Brain, McPhee.
4. Analysis of industrial activity in Australia - Gray, Lang.
5. A model of supply and demand for energy in Australia - Schuyers.
6. A model of the Australian financial sector - Burgess, Donath.
7. Econometric modelling of the operations of Telecom Australia - Theaker.
8. Economic activity in the Australian States - Gray, Lang.
9. Analysis of demographic factors underlying the Australian economy - Brain, Smith, Schuyers.
10. An econometric model of Australian agriculture - Smith.
11. Analysis of selected international economies as they affect Australia - Puntasen.
12. Preparation of annual data bank for econometric modelling - McPhee. Leahy.
C. INDUSTRIAL A N D FINANCIAL STUDIES 1. Australian energy policy options — Dixon.
2. Australian manufactured exports — Dixon, McGown.
3. Australian imports — Rosendale.
4. Analysis of costs of production in Australian agriculture — Smith, Collard.
5. Economic aspects of the use of water resources in the Kerang region — Smith, Taylor.
6. Housing construction activity in South Australia — Sheehan, Derody, Rosendale, McDonald, Carmody.
D. SOCIAL EXPENDITURE AND SOCIAL POLICY 1. A study of social expenditure patterns in Australia - Scotton, Ferber, Owens.
2. Study of social indicators — Owens.
3. Analysis of questionnaires on local government - Thomas.
4. Study of welfare operations of seven municipalities - O'Neill, Thomas, et al.
5. Funding local government welfare operations - Lewis.
6. Responsibilities of local government in welfare operations - Henderson.
7. Assessment of the action and resource centre - Brook (with the Brotherhood of St. Laurence).
8. Youth unemployment in Australia - Strieker.
E. ECONOMIC A N D SOCIAL STATISTICS 1. Institute's econometric data bank - Buchanan.
2. Computer programming for econometric modelling and analysis of economic conditions - Harris, Foster, Kelly.
PUBLISHED WORK Books
1. O'NEILL, J., with THOMAS, C. - Local Government Health and Welfare Services: A Study of Seven Municipalities. Technical Paper No. 10, Inst, of Appl. Eco. and Soc. Res., Melbourne (1978).
2. SCOTTON, R. B. and FERBER, H . eds - Public Expenditures and Social Policy in Australia. Volume I : The Whitlam Years 1972-75. Longman-Cheshire, Melbourne (1978).
INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH 77 3. SHEEHAN, P. J. - The Renewal of Australian Schools. Revised and Enlarged Edition, ed
with J. V. D'Cruz, A.C.E.R., Melbourne (November 1978).
4. SHEEHAN, P. J., with DERODY, B. - The Demand f o r and Supply of Kindergarten Teachers in Victoria 1977-1984, A.C.E.R., Melbourne (May 1978).
Chapters of Books
5. BRAIN, P. J. and GRAY, B. S. - "The 'Gregory Thesis' - Protection Policy and Factors Affecting the Size of the Australian Manufacturing Sector, 1990" in W. Kasper and T. G. Parry, eds Growth, Trade and Structural Change in an Open Australian Economy.
Canberra (1978).
6. DAVEY, P. - "Financing of Education" in Public Expenditures and Social Policy in Australia, Volume 1: The Whitlam Years 1972-75: 38-86, Longman-Cheshire. Melbourne (1978).
7. DIXON, G. L. R. - "Resources and the National Economy in the 1980's" in Australia's Resources Future, eds Peter Hastings and Andrew Farran: 185-212, Nelson in association with the Australian Institute of International Affairs, Melbourne (1978).
8. FERBER, H. - "Diary of Legislative and Administrative Changes", in Public Expenditures and Social Policy in Australia. Volume 1: The Whitlam Years 1972-75: 212-274, Longman.- Cheshire, Melbourne (1978).
9. HENDERSON, R. F. - "Social Welfare Expenditure", in Public Expenditures and Social Policy in Australia, Volume 1: The Whitlam Years 1972-75: 160-178, Longman-Cheshire, Melbourne (1978).
10. LEWIS, R. B. with HENDERSON, R. F., O'NEILL, J. and THOMAS, C. T. - "Summary of Major Recommendations for Administration and Funding — Discussion Paper A of Municipal Association of Victoria Consultation Seminars on the Role of Local Government in Social Welfare", in Local Government Health and Welfare Services: A Study of Seven Municipalities by J. O'Neill and C.Thomas: 133-145, Inst, of Appl. Eco. and Soc. Res., Melbourne (1978).
11. SCOTTON, R. B. -"Public expenditure and social policy", in Public Expenditures and Social Policy in Australia, Volume 1: The Whitlam Years 1972-75: 1-37, Longman-Cheshire, Melbourne (1978).
12. SCOTTON, R. B. - "Health services and the public sector", in Public Expenditures and Social Policy in Australia, Volume I : The Whitlam Years 1972-75: 87-136, Longman- Cheshire, Melbourne (1978).
13. SHEEHAN, P. J. - "Real Wages and Unemployment - An Alternative View", in J. W. Nevile, ed Real Wages and Unemployment, Centre for Appl. Eco. Res., University of New South Wales (1978).
14. SHEEHAN, P. J. and D'CRUZ, J. V. - "Culture and the Schools Commission in Educational Renewal", in The Renewal of Australian Schools, ed J. V. D'Cruz and P. J. Sheehan, second edition: 3-16, ACER, Melbourne (November 1978).
15. SHEEHAN, P. J. and D'CRUZ, J. V. - "Some Key Issues for the Future of Australian Schools", in The Renewal of Australian Schools, ed J. V. D'Cruz and P. J. Sheehan, second edition: 265-292, ACER, Melbourne (November 1978).
16. THOMAS, C. T. - "Appendix I I I - A Note on the Welfare Consultation Seminars Conducted by the Municipal Association of Victoria, March/April 1978", in Local Government Health and Welfare Services: A Study of Seven Municipalities by J. O'Neill and C. Thomas: 146-163, Inst, of Appl. Eco. and Soc. Res., Melbourne (1978).
Journal
17. SHEEHAN, P. J. ed, MeDONALD, D. and ROSENDALE, P.assoc. eds and BUCHANAN, J. assist, ed - Aust. Eco. Review, Nos. 41. 42. 43 and 44: published quarterly by the Inst, of Appl. Eco. and Soc. Res.
Articles and Papers
18. BARTON, L. - Agricultural Assistance Measures: A Survey and Assessment, Aust. Eco.
Review (3rd Quarter 1978).
19. BRAIN, P. J. and GRAY, B. S. - The Medium-Term Prospect for the Australian Economy, 1978-1985, Aust. Eco. Review (3rd Quarter 1978).
20. BRAIN, P. J. and GRAY, B. S. - Change in Inter-Sector Resource Allocation in the Australian Economy, 1966-67 to 1973-74. Paper presented to the Conference on "The Economics of Structural Change and Adjustments", Inst, of Industrial Economics, University of Newcastle (November 1978).
78 FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND COMMERCE
21. DEFRIS, L. V. — Alternative Measures of Australian Consumer Inflationary Expectations:
Their Relation to Attitudes and Prices, Aust. Eco. Review (4th Quarter 1978).
22. DIXON, G. L. R. and FERGUSON, B. J. - What Price Energy Conservation? Paper presented to the Institute_of Energy, Victorian Branch, (23 August 1978) [mimeographed].
23. DIXON, G. L. K. and r-tRGUSON, B. j . - Structural Change in Australia. Industries Assistance Commission, Canberra, Book Review (1977), published in Economic Record.
Volume 54. No. 146: 291-2 (August 1978).
24. HENDERSON, R. F. - Housing Policy and the Poor, Aust. Eco. Review (1st Quarter 1978).
25. HENDERSON, R. F. - Employment in thc Tertiary Sector, Paper delivered to Victorian Employment Conference (December 1978).
26. HENDERSON, R. F. - The Commonwealth-State Housing Agreement, Environs Magazine of the Department of Environment, Housing and Community Development. Canberra (1978).
27. IRONMONGER, D. S. - The Australian Economy in the Eighties. Paper given as the Opening Address to the 1978 National Convention of the Housing Industry Assoc., Perth (24 April 1978).
28. IRONMONGER, D. S. - Some Key Issues in the Macro-Economic Debate in Australia, Aust. Eco. Review (3rd Quarter 1978).
29. McDONNELL, J. S. and IRONMONGER, D. S. - Understanding the Savings Ratio, Research Report 9. Consumer Surveys, Inst, of Appl. Eco. and Soc. Res. (December 1978).
30. SCOTTON, R. B. - The Costs and Use of Medical Services, A uu. Eco. Review (2nd Quarter 1978).
31. SCOTTON, R. B. — Health Expenditures and Cost Containment: An International Perspective. Paper presented to the Seventh Conference of Economists, Sydney (August 1978).
32. SHEEHAN, P. J. and STRICKER, P. P. - Youth Unemployment in Australia: A Survey, Aust. Eco. Review (1st Quarter 1978).
33. S M I T H , A. W. — Agricultural Modelling and its Application to Long-Term Econometric Forecasting, Paper presented to the Victorian Branch of the Aust. Agric. Eco. Soc. (April 1978).
34. SMITH, A. W. and BRENNAN, J. P. - The Effects of Wheat Delivery Quotas on Wheat Supply, Paper presented to the 22nd Annual Conf. of the Aust. Agric. Eco. Soc, Sydney (February 1978).
35. S M I T H , A. W. and SMITH, R. L. - The Changing Position of thc Rural Sector in the Australian Economy since 1945, Aust. Eco. Review (3rd Quarter 1978).
36. SMITH, A. W. and HEADY, B. - Owning Versus Renting in Australia: Public and Private Choices in Housing, Paper prepared for the National Housing Eco. Conf., Macquarie University (August 1978).
THESES IN PROGRESS PhD Theses in Progress BURBIDGE, A. - Government Policies for the Work-force Poor
CUTTANCE, P. - Educational Achievement al the Secondary School Level HAYWOOD, E. - Economic Fluctuations: Australia and its Stales, 1950-1972
ROSENDALE, P. - The Indonesian Balance of Payments, 1950-76 (PhD, awarded A N U 1978) SCHUYERS, G. P. - The Impact of New Energy Sources and Technologies on Future Australian Energy Consumption and Production Patterns
STRICKER, P. P. - Operation of the Australian Labour Market MCom Theses in Progress
LANG, J. W. — An Ecbnometric Model of the Victorian Housing Industry MeDONALD, D. — Measurement of Potential Output in Australia
SUBSTANTIAL GRANTS RECEIVED Grants have been received as follows:
ARGC: Analysis of social expenditures in Australia.
ARGC: World trade in agricultural products and Australian agriculture.
ARGC: Investigation of assumptions underlying the delivery of personal welfare services by local government.
ARGC: The behaviour of Australian manufactured exports 1963-64 to 1973-74.
ARGC: Australian capital requirements to 1990.
Australian Wool Corporation and
Reserve Bank of Australia: Preparation and analysis of farm cost data.
INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH 79
South Australian Department of Housing, Urban and Regional Affairs: Housing construction activity in South Australia.
Telecom Australia: Econometric modelling and forecasting.
Victorian Ministry of Water Resources and Water Supply: Economic aspects ofthe use of water resources in the Kerang region.
Details of subscribers to the Consumer Surveys and Econometric Forecasting Projects will be found in the Annual Report of the Institute for 1978.