Analisis Potensi Ekspor CPO (Crude Palm Oil) Di Sumatera Utara

(1)

Lampiran 1.

Produksi Perkebunan Sawit di Indonesia dan Sumatera Utara

Sumber: BPS Sumatera Utara 2012.

Lampiran 2.

Produksi Perkebunan Sawit di Indonesia

Tahun 2010-2011 per- Bulan (Ton)

Produksi per Bulan

2010

2011

Januari

2.185.539

2.221.346

Pebruari

1.888.948

Maret

2.122.250

2.163.751

April

1.909.888

1.940.738

Mei

1.943.508

1.976.543

Juni

2.055.554

2.089.879

Juli

1.959.296

1.993.221

Agustus

1.854.750

1.888.701

September

1.560.853

1.591.840

Oktober

1.770.457

1.807.144

Nopember

1.682.516

1.719.169

Desember

1.594.042

1.627.829

Tahun

Produksi CPO Indonesia

(Ton)

Produksi CPO Sumatera

Utara (Ton)

2002

9.622.344

2.850.008

2003

10.440.834

2.970.673

2004

12.326.419

3.287.082

2005

14.619.830

3.331.654

2006

16.569.927

3.521.770

2007

17.796.374

3.712.052

2008

18.306.842

3.870.781

2009

21.390.326

3.980.225

2010

22.496.857

3.889.623

(2)

Lampiran 3.

Produksi Perkebunan Sawit di Sumatera Utara

Tahun 2010-2011 per - Bulan (Ton)

Produksi per Bulan

2010

2011

Januari

307.404

315.655

Pebruari

280.095

287.681

Maret

341.555

350.358

April

311.770

319.892

Mei

336.913

345.782

Juni

340.152

348.827

Juli

343.149

351.731

Agustus

326.154

334.126

September

303.916

311.553

Oktober

342.421

351.667

Nopember

339.433

348.550

Desember

326.591

335.328

Lampiran 4.

Nilai Tukar (Rp/U$)

per bulan

2010

2011

Januari

9412

9102

Pebruari

9382

8867

Maret

9161

8753

April

9057

8617

Mei

9226

8580

Juni

9128

8640

Juli

8997

8551

Agustus

9086

8621

September

8969

8867

Oktober

8973

8879

Nopember

9058

9216

Desember

9036

9130

(3)

Lampiran 5.

Perkembangan Ekspor CPO (Minyak Kelapa Sawit Mentah) di Indonesia

(Ton)

Tahun

Sumatera Utara

Indonesia

2002

3.473.367

2.804.792

2003

2.572.190

2.892.130

2004

3.992.941

3.819.927

2005

4.417.701

4.565.625

2006

4.677.285

5.199.287

2007

3.712.052

5.701.286

2008

3.870.781

7.904.179

2009

3.980.225

9.566.746

2010

3.899.623

9.444.170

2011

4.001.150

8.424.037

Lampiran 6.

Perkembangan Ekspor CPO (Minyak Kelapa Sawit Mentah) di Indonesia

Tahun 2010-2011 per - Bulan (Ton)

Produksi per

Bulan

2010

2011

Januari

574.994

77.267

Pebruari

547.897

468.326

Maret

634.724

223.362

April

522.564

621.653

Mei

638.465

994.989

Juni

698.562

933.512

Juli

645.111

395.052

Agustus

1.306.884

1.026.935

September

922.298

706.531

Oktober

905.243

493.053

Nopember

1.036.702

1.002.778

Desember

1.010.776

780.579

(4)

Lampiran 7.

Perkembangan Ekspor CPO (Minyak Kelapa Sawit Mentah)

di Sumatera Utara Tahun 2010-2011 per - Bulan (Ton)

Produksi per

Bulan

2010

2011

Januari

258.805,49

158.492,78

Pebruari

261.933,18

154.551,50

Maret

265.060,86

150.610,21

April

268.188,55

146.668,93

Mei

271.316,24

142.727,64

Juni

274.443,93

138.786,36

Juli

277.571,61

134.845,07

Agustus

280.699,30

130.903,79

September

283.826,99

126.962,50

Oktober

286.954,68

123.021,22

Nopember

290.082,36

119.079,93

Desember

293.210,05

115.138,65

Sumber: Data Diolah.

Lampiran 8.

Harga Internasional CPO (Minyak Kelapa Sawit Mentah)

Tahun 2010-2011 per - Bulan (Rp/U$)

Bulan

Harga Internasional CPO (Rp/U$)

2010

2011

Januari

793.00

1,281.00

Februari

798.00

1,292.00

Maret

832.00

1,180.00

April

830.00

1,149.00

Mei

811.00

1,159.00

Juni

798.00

1,133.00

Juli

807.00

1,089.00

Agustus

901.00

1,083.00

September

987.00

1,065.00

Oktober

1,120.30

995.00

November

912.00

1,053.00

Desember

923.00

1,026.00

(5)

Lampiran 9

Hasil Olah Data SPSS

NPar Tests

One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test

Nilai Tukar Produksi

Harga

Internasional

N 24 24 24

Normal Parametersa,b Mean 9.1014 12.7025 6.8964

Std. Deviation .02748 .06372 .15903

Most Extreme Differences Absolute .127 .187 .153

Positive .121 .143 .153

Negative -.127 -.187 -.112

Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z .621 .917 .748

Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) .835 .370 .630

a. Test distribution is Normal.

b. Calculated from data.

One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test

Ekspor CPO

Pertumbuhan

Ekonomi

N 24 24

Normal Parametersa,b Mean 206411.7425 -.6097

Std. Deviation 72191.40596 .03489

Most Extreme Differences Absolute .266 .311

Positive .247 .311

Negative -.266 -.223

Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z 1.303 1.523

Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) .067 .069

a. Test distribution is Normal.

(6)

Regression

Notes

Output Created 18-Jul-2013 22:06:48

Comments

Input Data D:\Friend's File\anas\Untitled hrga

inter.sav

Active Dataset DataSet0

Filter <none>

Weight <none>

Split File <none>

N of Rows in Working Data

File

24

Missing Value Handling Definition of Missing User-defined missing values are

treated as missing.

Cases Used Statistics are based on cases with no

missing values for any variable used.

Syntax REGRESSION

/DESCRIPTIVES MEAN STDDEV

CORR SIG N

/MISSING LISTWISE

/STATISTICS COEFF OUTS CI(95)

BCOV R ANOVA COLLIN TOL

CHANGE ZPP

/CRITERIA=PIN(.05) POUT(.10)

/NOORIGIN

/DEPENDENT Ln_Y

/METHOD=ENTER Ln_X3 Ln_X2

Ln_X1 Ln_X4

/RESIDUALS DURBIN

/CASEWISE PLOT(ZRESID)

OUTLIERS(3).

Resources Processor Time 00:00:00.328

Elapsed Time 00:00:00.484

Memory Required 2444 bytes

Additional Memory Required

for Residual Plots

(7)

Descriptive Statistics

Mean Std. Deviation N

Ekspor CPO 12.1744 .36887 24

Harga Iternasional 6.8964 .15903 24

Produksi 12.7025 .06372 24

Nilai Tukar 9.1014 .02748 24

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi -.6097 .03489 24

Correlations

Ekspor CPO

Harga

Iternasional Produksi

Pearson Correlation Ekspor CPO 1.000 -.703 -.235

Harga Iternasional -.703 1.000 .089

Produksi -.235 .089 1.000

Nilai Tukar .553 -.662 -.361

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi -.999 .731 .242

Sig. (1-tailed) Ekspor CPO . .000 .134

Harga Iternasional .000 . .340

Produksi .134 .340 .

Nilai Tukar .003 .000 .042

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi .000 .000 .127

N Ekspor CPO 24 24 24

Harga Iternasional 24 24 24

Produksi 24 24 24

Nilai Tukar 24 24 24

(8)

Correlations

Nilai Tukar

Pertumbuhan

Ekonomi

Pearson Correlation Ekspor CPO .553 -.999

Harga Iternasional -.662 .731

Produksi -.361 .242

Nilai Tukar 1.000 -.581

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi -.581 1.000

Sig. (1-tailed) Ekspor CPO .003 .000

Harga Iternasional .000 .000

Produksi .042 .127

Nilai Tukar . .001

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi .001 .

N Ekspor CPO 24 24

Harga Iternasional 24 24

Produksi 24 24

Nilai Tukar 24 24

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi 24 24

Variables Entered/Removedb

Model Variables

Entered

Variables

Removed Method

1 Pertumbuhan

Ekonomi,

Produksi, Nilai

Tukar, Harga

Iternasionala

. Enter

a. All requested variables entered.

(9)

Model Summaryb

Model Change Statistics

Durbin-Watson R Square

Change F Change df1 df2 Sig. F Change

1 1.000 9983.372 4 19 .000 1.336

b. Dependent Variable: Ekspor CPO

Model Summaryb

Model

R R Square

Adjusted R

Square

Std. Error of the

Estimate

1 1.000a 1.000 .999 .00885

a. Predictors: (Constant), Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Produksi, Nilai

Tukar, Harga Iternasional

(10)

ANOVAb

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.

1 Regression 3.128 4 .782 9983.372 .000a

Residual .001 19 .000

Total 3.129 23

a. Predictors: (Constant), Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Produksi, Nilai Tukar, Harga Iternasional

b. Dependent Variable: Ekspor CPO

Coefficientsa

Model

Unstandardized Coefficients

Standardized

Coefficients

B Std. Error Beta

1 (Constant) 6.937 1.196

Harga Iternasional .111 .020 .048

Produksi .038 .032 .007

Nilai Tukar .305 .098 -.023

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi 11.086 .081 -1.049

a. Dependent Variable: Ekspor CPO

Coefficientsa

Model

t Sig.

95.0% Confidence Interval for B

Lower Bound Upper Bound

1 (Constant) 5.800 .000 4.434 9.440

Harga Iternasional 5.639 .000 .070 .152

Produksi 1.176 .254 -.030 .106

Nilai Tukar -3.094 .006 -.511 -.099

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi -137.379 .000 -11.255 -10.918

(11)

Coefficientsa

Model Correlations Collinearity Statistics

Zero-order Partial Part Tolerance VIF

1 (Constant)

Harga Iternasional -.703 .791 .028 .348 2.874

Produksi -.235 .261 .006 .795 1.258

Nilai Tukar .553 -.579 -.015 .465 2.149

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi -.999 -.999 -.687 .430 2.327

Coefficient Correlationsa

Model Pertumbuhan

Ekonomi Produksi

1 Correlations Pertumbuhan Ekonomi 1.000 -.206

Produksi -.206 1.000

Nilai Tukar .095 .375

Covariances Pertumbuhan Ekonomi .007 -.001

Produksi -.001 .001

Coefficient Correlationsa

Model Nilai Tukar Harga Iternasional

1 Correlations Pertumbuhan Ekonomi .095 -.592

Produksi .375 .291

Nilai Tukar 1.000 .488

Harga Iternasional .488 1.000

Covariances Pertumbuhan Ekonomi .001 -.001

Produksi .001 .000

Harga Iternasional .001 .000

(12)

Collinearity Diagnosticsa

Model Dimension Variance Proportions

Nilai Tukar

Pertumbuhan

Ekonomi

1

dimensi on1

1 .00 .00

2 .00 .31

3 .00 .55

4 .07 .13

5 .92 .00

Collinearity Diagnosticsa

Model Dimension

Eigenvalue Condition Index

Variance Proportions

(Constant)

Harga

Iternasional Produksi

1

dimensi on1

1 4.997 1.000 .00 .00 .00

2 .003 39.940 .00 .01 .00

3 .000 177.766 .00 .65 .02

4 1.852E-5 519.429 .01 .00 .62

5 1.466E-6 1846.201 .99 .33 .36

(13)

Residuals Statisticsa

Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation N

Predicted Value 11.6583 12.5831 12.1744 .36878 24

Residual -.01606 .01915 .00000 .00804 24

Std. Predicted Value -1.400 1.108 .000 1.000 24

Std. Residual -1.815 2.164 .000 .909 24

Lampiran 10

Hasil Olah Trend

x1

b1

x2

b2

x3

b3

x4

b4

1

9130 0,11

335328 0,03 1026 -0,308

0,57

-11,086

2

9130 0,11

335328 0,03 1026 -0,308

0,57

-11,086

3

9130 0,11

335328 0,03 1026 -0,308

0,57

-11,086

4

9130 0,11

335328 0,03 1026 -0,308

0,57

-11,086

5

9130 0,11

335328 0,03 1026 -0,308

0,57

-11,086

6

9130 0,11

335328 0,03 1026 -0,308

0,57

-11,086

7

9130 0,11

335328 0,03 1026 -0,308

0,57

-11,086

8

9130 0,11

335328 0,03 1026 -0,308

0,57

-11,086

9

9130 0,11

335328 0,03 1026 -0,308

0,57

-11,086

1

2

3

4 A

Trend

Tahun