HASIL REGRESSION MODEL GLS FIXED EFFECT MODEL (FEM)
VARIABEL TERIKAT : BELANJA DAERAH (Y1)
Dependent Variable: LBD?
Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section weights) Date: 11/16/15 Time: 00:10
Sample: 2010 2013 Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 33
Total pool (balanced) observations: 132
Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix
(Lanjutan Lampiran 1)
Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
Weighted Statistics
R-squared 0.993754 Mean dependent var 25.95705 Adjusted R-squared 0.991387 S.D. dependent var 28.70101 S.E. of regression 0.045124 Sum squared resid 0.193440 F-statistic 419.8668 Durbin-Watson stat 2.325747 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Unweighted Statistics
HASIL REGRESSION MODEL GLS FIXED EFFECT MODEL (FEM)
VARIABEL TERIKAT : DAYA SERAP BELANJA DAERAH (Y2)
Dependent Variable: LDSBD?Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section weights) Date: 11/16/15 Time: 00:19
Sample: 2010 2013 Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 33
Total pool (balanced) observations: 132
Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 23.55873 4.956364 4.753229 0.0000
(Lanjutan Lampiran 2)
Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
Weighted Statistics
R-squared 0.711653 Mean dependent var 3.927316 Adjusted R-squared 0.602384 S.D. dependent var 2.343741 S.E. of regression 0.053031 Sum squared resid 0.267167 F-statistic 6.512882 Durbin-Watson stat 2.331594 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Unweighted Statistics
HASIL REGRESSION MODEL GLS RANDOM EFFECT MODEL (REM)
VARIABEL TERIKAT : BELANJA DAERAH (Y1)
Dependent Variable: LBD?
Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 11/16/15 Time: 00:12
Sample: 2010 2013 Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 33
Total pool (balanced) observations: 132
Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 1.034161 0.419986 2.462369 0.0151
(Lanjutan Lampiran 3)
Effects Specification
S.D. Rho
Cross-section random 0.026734 0.2524
Idiosyncratic random 0.046012 0.7476
Weighted Statistics
R-squared 0.929783 Mean dependent var 7.669096 Adjusted R-squared 0.927572 S.D. dependent var 0.176936 S.E. of regression 0.047618 Sum squared resid 0.287966 F-statistic 420.4221 Durbin-Watson stat 1.743425 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Unweighted Statistics
HASIL REGRESSION MODEL GLS RANDOM EFFECT MODEL (REM)
VARIABEL TERIKAT : DAYA SERAP BELANJA DAERAH (Y2)
Dependent Variable: LDSBD?Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 11/16/15 Time: 00:24
Sample: 2010 2013 Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 33
Total pool (balanced) observations: 132
Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances
(Lanjutan Lampiran 4)
Effects Specification
S.D. Rho
Cross-section random 0.028296 0.1910
Idiosyncratic random 0.058236 0.8090
Weighted Statistics
R-squared 0.035924 Mean dependent var 1.423329 Adjusted R-squared 0.005559 S.D. dependent var 0.063831 S.E. of regression 0.063654 Sum squared resid 0.514578 F-statistic 1.183083 Durbin-Watson stat 1.427386 Prob(F-statistic) 0.321439
Unweighted Statistics
HASIL ESTIMASI HAUSMAN TEST
VARIABEL TERIKAT : BELANJA DAERAH (Y1)
Correlated Random Effects - Hausman TestPool: POOL1
Test cross-section random effects
Test Summary
Chi-Sq.
Statistic Chi-Sq. d.f. Prob.
Cross-section random 13.019127 4 0.0112
Cross-section random effects test comparisons:
Variable Fixed Random Var(Diff.) Prob. LDAU? 0.670199 0.774176 0.004116 0.1051 LPAD? 0.070246 0.119042 0.001743 0.2425 LPE? -0.022281 0.064091 0.004153 0.1802 LJP? 4.712859 0.086782 1.686736 0.0004
Cross-section random effects test equation: Dependent Variable: LBD?
Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 11/16/15 Time: 00:14 Sample: 2010 2013
Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 33
Total pool (balanced) observations: 132
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -22.31523 6.580598 -3.391063 0.0010 LDAU? 0.670199 0.083150 8.060161 0.0000 LPAD? 0.070246 0.047772 1.470460 0.1447 LPE? -0.022281 0.101406 -0.219725 0.8266 LJP? 4.712859 1.299004 3.628056 0.0005
Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
Lampiran 6
HASIL ESTIMASI HAUSMAN TEST
VARIABEL TERIKAT : DAYA SERAP BELANJA DAERAH (Y2)
Correlated Random Effects - Hausman TestPool: POOL1
Test cross-section random effects
Test Summary
Chi-Sq.
Statistic Chi-Sq. d.f. Prob.
Cross-section random 28.727535 4 0.0000
Cross-section random effects test comparisons:
Variable Fixed Random Var(Diff.) Prob. LDAU? 0.410462 0.148774 0.006888 0.0016 LPAD? -0.080114 -0.046700 0.002907 0.5354 LPE? 0.261768 0.024108 0.007293 0.0054 LJP? -7.364046 -0.015191 2.702156 0.0000
Cross-section random effects test equation: Dependent Variable: LDSBD?
Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 11/16/15 Time: 00:25 Sample: 2010 2013
Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 33
Total pool (balanced) observations: 132
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 37.86202 8.328906 4.545858 0.0000 LDAU? 0.410462 0.105240 3.900232 0.0002 LPAD? -0.080114 0.060463 -1.325003 0.1883 LPE? 0.261768 0.128347 2.039529 0.0442 LJP? -7.364046 1.644118 -4.479025 0.0000
Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
Data Anggaran Belanja Daerah Kabupaten/Kota Sumatera Utara
Pemerintah Daerah 2010 2011 2012 2013
Lampiran 8
Data Realisasi Belanja Daerah Kabupaten/Kota Sumatera Utara
Pemerintah 2010 2011 2012 2013
Data Realisasi DAU Kabupaten/Kota Sumatera Utara
Pemerintah
2010 2011 2012 2013
Lampiran 10
Data Realisasi PAD Pada Kabupaten/Kota Sumatera Utara
Pemerintah 2010 2011 2012 2013
Data Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Pada Kabupaten/Kota Sumatera Utara
Kabupaten/Kota
2010
2011
2012
2013
Nias
6.75
6.81
6.24
6.43
Mandailing Natal
6.41
6.43
6.41
6.41
Tapanuli Selatan
5.06
5.26
5.22
5.21
Tapanuli Tengah
6.13
6.27
6.35
6.85
Tapanuli Utara
5.56
5.54
5.95
6.05
Toba Samosir
5.5
5.26
5.52
5.14
Labuhan Batu
5.15
5.72
6.11
6.00
Asahan
4.97
5.37
5.57
5.83
Simalungun
5.12
5.81
6.06
4.48
Dairi
5.02
5.28
5.44
5.46
Karo
6.03
6.59
6.34
4.72
Deli Serdang
5.98
6.01
6.06
12.79
Langkat
5.74
5.78
5.66
5.97
Nias Selatan
4.12
4.46
5.78
5.16
Humbang Hasundutan
5.45
5.94
5.99
6.03
Pakpak Barat
6.77
5.98
6.02
5.86
Samosir
5.59
5.96
6.07
6.46
Serdang Bedagai
6.14
5.98
6
5.97
Batu Bara
4.65
5.11
4.37
3.35
Padang Lawas Utara
6.74
6.81
6.38
6.13
Padang Lawas
5.56
6.39
6.31
6.12
Labuhanbatu Selatan
5.61
6.13
6.33
6.05
Labuhanbatu Utara
5.68
6.21
6.38
6.33
Nias Utara
6.73
6.68
5.88
6.25
Nias Barat
6.3
6.76
4.93
5.81
Sibolga
6.04
5.06
5.34
5.8
Tanjungbalai
4.76
5.11
4.99
4.52
Pematangsiantar
5.85
6.02
5.71
5.16
Tebing Tinggi
6.04
6.67
6.75
6.91
Medan
7.16
7.69
7.63
4.3
Binjai
6.07
6.28
6.61
6.48
Padangsidimpuan
5.81
5.99
6.23
6.2
Gunung Sitoli
6.73
6.56
6.28
6.35
Lampiran 12
Data Jumlah Penduduk Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Sumatera Utara
Pemerintah 2010 2011 2012 2013
Nias 131,377 132,605 132,860 133,388 Mandailing Natal 404,945 408,731 410,931 413,475 Tapanuli Selatan 263,815 266,282 268,095 268,824 Tapanuli Tengah 311,232 314,142 318,908 324,006 Tapanuli Utara 279,257 281,868 283,871 286,118 Toba Samosir 173,129 174,748 174,865 175,069 Labuhan Batu 415,110 418,992 424,644 430,718 Asahan 668,272 674,521 677,876 681,794 Simalungun 817,720 825,366 830,986 833,251 Dairi 270,053 272,578 273,394 276,238 Karo 350,960 354,242 358,823 363,755 Deli Serdang 1,790,431 1,807,173 1,845,615 1,886,388 Langkat 967,535 976,582 976,885 978,734 Nias Selatan 289,708 292,417 294,069 295,968 Humbang Hasundutan 171,650 173,255 174,765 176,429 Pakpak Barat 40,505 40,884 41,492 42,144 Samosir 119,653 120,772 121,594 121,924 Serdang Bedagai 594,383 599,941 604,026 605,583 Batu Bara 375,885 379,400 381,023 382,960 Padang Lawas Utara 223,531 225,621 229,064 232,746 Padang Lawas 225,259 227,365 232,166 237,259 Labuhanbatu Selatan 277,673 280,269 284,809 289,655 Labuhanbatu Utara 330,701 333,793 335,459 337,404 Nias Utara 127,244 128,434 128,533 129,053 Nias Barat 81,807 82,572 82,701 82,854
Sibolga 84,481 85,271 85,852 85,981
Data Daya Serap Belanja Daerah Kabupaten/Kota Sumatera Utara
Pemerintah 2010 2011 2012 2013
Kab. Nias 87.41 104.19 93.60 93.83
Kab. Mandailing Natal 112.00 103.93 113.72 108.66 Kab. Tapanuli Selatan 86.74 96.15 94.59 92.42 Kab.Tapanuli Tengah 94.36 96.82 107.92 96.31 Kab. Tapanuli Utara 109.76 108.15 104.92 100.97 Kab. Toba Samosir 101.23 114.72 107.45 99.35 Kab. Labuhan Batu 105.83 98.76 106.45 103.47 Kab. Asahan 106.53 110.75 123.87 110.15 Kab. Simalungun 105.46 103.56 98.57 102.51 Kab. Dairi 109.48 109.00 98.72 90.96
Kab. Karo 107.92 93.53 91.01 105.53
Kab. Deli Serdang 98.12 97.80 88.44 84.15 Kab. Langkat 102.67 92.36 96.17 91.11 Kab. Nias Selatan 88.89 91.54 101.41 81.72 Kab. Humbang Hasundutan 100.29 95.40 96.67 91.87 Kab. Pakpak Barat 92.96 109.84 90.42 94.46 Kab. Samosir 96.59 99.55 91.03 88.71 Kab.Serdang Bedagai 101.56 102.56 98.68 93.25 Kab. Batu Bara 112.80 99.83 98.80 90.75 Kab. Padang Lawas Utara 88.35 111.10 96.61 23.38 Kab. Padang Lawas 97.26 90.36 82.61 86.18 Kab. Labuhanbatu Selatan 83.57 89.90 89.71 93.97 Kab. Labuhanbatu Utara 102.13 106.81 123.98 121.46 Kab. Nias Utara 81.18 78.86 102.55 96.84 Kab.Nias Barat 80.14 82.32 80.28 97.31 Kota Sibolga 92.93 90.82 103.79 90.09 Kota Tanjungbalai 93.12 102.02 92.01 80.81 Kota Pematangsiantar 103.16 93.12 97.30 93.90 Kota Tebing Tinggi 96.87 105.92 137.97 117.51
Kota Medan 94.82 103.74 78.98 71.26
