Market Review
IHSG 1.06%) ditutup melemah 68.68 poin kelevel 6426.32 dengan sektor keuangan (-1.09%) dan infrastruktur (-2.31%) menjadi penekan pelemahan. Saham ASII (-4.38%) menjadi pemimpin kontributor pelemahan menjelang rilis data penjualan mobil yang akan rilis pada hari Kamis. Dimana data penjualan mobil awal tahun ini dikhawatirkan melanjutkan trend penurunan yang terjadi sejak bulan Oktober tahun lalu. Investor asing tercatat net sell 566.24 miliar rupiah. Pemangkasan bobot saham-saham Indonesia oleh Credit Suisse hingga 10% menjadi kambing hitam seiring kekhawatiran bahwa pertumbuhan Indonesia terrevisi turun dan rupiah menghadapi kembali tekanannya melihat perdagangan yang telah signifikan sejak awal tahun 2019. Rupiah telah naik sekitar 2.2% tahun ini. Pada perdagangan terakhir rupiah tercatat melemah 0.24% kelevel Rp14.068 per USD.
Leader:
HMSP, UNVR, BRPT, RMBA, BUMI Laggard:
ASII, TLKM, BMRI, BBCA, BYAN
Pergerakan IHSG secara teknikal break out support MA20 sehingga potensi pergerakan bearish masih akan terasa hingga menuju support MA50 dikisaran level 6292. Koreksi wajar ini secara teknikal karena indikator stochastic bearish dan momentum RSI yang menukik cukup tajam membuat sebagian besar trader beranggapan IHSG perlu koreksi jangka pendek. Sehingga diperkirakan IHSG masih akan tertekan dengan rentang pergerakan 6355-6473. Saham-saham yang masih dapat dicermati diantaranya TBLA, JPFA, MAIN, GGRM, HOKI, ASII, DOID, MEDC, INCO.
Ekuitas Jepang kembali dibuka optimis. Indeks Nikkei (+0.92%) dan TOPIX (+0.66%) naik lebih dari setengah persen serta Indeks KOSPI (+0.34%) di Korea Selatan menguat. Kenaikan ini didorong dengan pelemahan nilai tukar Yen yang diperpanjang serta optimisme pada tanda-tanda kesepakatan tentatif diantara anggota parlemen Amerika untuk mencegah penutupan pemerintahan yang lebih lama. Dimana Anggota parlemen AS menyatakan telah mencapai kesepakatan prinsip tentang pendanaan keamanan perbatasan. Yuan mempertahankan kenaikannya setelah menguat untuk pertama kalinya dalam lima hari akan menjadi katalis positif bursa saham Asia. Harga minyak WTI (+0.8%) rebound kelevel $53.51 perbarrel setelah Arab Saudi bersepakat untuk kembali memangkas produksi. Sedangkan harga tambang energy lain seperti Harga Batubara NC (-1.05%) melemah cukup signifikan memperpanjang pelemahan sejak awal pekan kelevel $95.65 per mton.
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan
Analisis
:
•
Pergerakan
harga
terkonsolidasi
pada area support dan MA200.
Indikasi positif jika berhasil kuat
diatas
MA200
dengan
potensi
menguat menuji resistance.
•
Stop-loss
jika
harga
saham
terkonfirmasi break out support
•
Indikator stochastic bergerak pada
area pada area oversold dengan
pola golden-cross
•
Support
: 3500-3680
•
Resistance
: 3880-4070
•
Stop-loss
: 3650
•
Target Price
: 3880-4070
TRADING BUY
HMSP
Analisis
:
•
Pergerakan harga saham rebound
tepat pada level support MA50
dengan potensi menguat menuji
resistance dan kembali pada trend
positif jangka menengah.
•
Stop-loss jika harga saham break
out support MA50
•
Indikator
Stochastic
berpotensi
membentuk
pola
golden-cross
dengan indicator RSI yang bullish
reversal momentum.
•
Support
: 545-590
•
Resistance
: 650-700
•
Stop-loss
: 570
Analisis
:
•
Harga saham rebound pada level
support
MA200
dengan
membentuk
pola
candlestick
bullish engulfing. Berindikasi kuat
bergerak
rebound
menguji
resistance hingga upper Bollinger
bands
•
Stop-loss
jika
harga
saham
terkonfirmasi break out support
MA200
•
Indikator stochastic golden-cross
pada
area
oversold
dengan
momentum RSI yang cukup rendah.
•
Support
: 850-910
•
Resistance
: 985-1075
•
Stop-loss
: 920
•
Target Price
: 1075
BUY
MEDC
Analisis
:
•
Pelemahan harga saham tertahan
pada level support MA200 indikasi
kuat
rebound
dan
menguat
menguji resistance level.
•
Stop-loss
jika
harga
saham
terkonfirmasi break out support
MA200
•
Indikator Stochastic bergerak pada
area oversold dengan indikasi pola
golden-cross
dan
RSI
yang
bergerak bullish mendekati area
overbought
•
Support
: 3200-3520
•
Resistance
: 3890-4220
•
Stop-loss
: 3460
LS-27 Index
Legend :
B: BUY (allocate till 100% of the weighted capital to accumulate, higher than 50% upside probability)
SB: SPECULATIVE BUY (allocate 25%-50% of the weighted capital to accumulate, 25%-50% upside probability)
W: WAIT (wait for proper entry level, do the stop-loss if necessary)
H: HOLD (hold the portfolio position, aim for the best price to distribute)
PS: PARTIAL SELL (distribute 25%-50% part of the portfolio, 25%-50% downside probability)
S: SELL (distribute till 100% of the portfolio, higher than 50% downside probability)
TB: TRADING BUY (short term or intraday trading within a tight trading range. Highly speculative).
Analyst Conclusions:
The Index has reached the wave 3.
Support Support Resist ance Resist ance
2 1 1 2
Agricult ure
TBLA 750 810 865 870 950 Break out MA50 W 840 AALI 12,000 12,750 13,200 13,575 14,500 Break out MA20 PS 13,000 SSMS 1,050 1,115 1,165 1,180 2,250 Break out support W 1,250
Basic Indust ry
TKIM 10,850 12,350 12,325 14,150 16,100 Break out MA200 W 12,000 INKP 10,700 11,700 12,450 13,000 14,400 Oversold W 12,000
CPIN 6,700 7,200 7,400 8,000 8,850 Arrived at MA50 TB 7,000 8,000
Consumer
GGRM 77,000 80,700 80,775 84,500 88,000 Rectangle TB 80,500 84,500 HOKI 620 675 705 720 765 Stoch golden-cross TB 700 790 ICBP 9,800 10,450 10,450 11,400 12,300 Break out MA20 W 10,400
UNVR 47,100 49,000 49,100 51,400 53,000 Bearish momentum PS 49,000
Finance
BBRI 3,550 3,750 3,850 3,940 4,100 Bearish momentum PS 3,800 BBNI 8,200 8,650 8,900 9,100 9,525 Oversold W 8,700 BBCA 25,800 26,800 27,300 28,275 29,750 Bearish momentum PS 27,000
Infrast ruct ure
TOWR 700 770 805 850 930 Break out support PS 800 PGAS 2,250 2,410 2,410 2,600 2,800 Break out support W 2,400
Misc. Indust ry
SRIL 322 340 342 350 372 Stoch golden-cross TB 338 350 ASII 7,200 7,500 7,650 7,800 8,100 Break out lower bound PS 7,450
Mining
PTBA 3,850 4,170 4,190 4,480 4,800 Whipsaw at MA200 TB 4,150 4,480 ITMG 19,350 20,500 21,400 22,000 23,000 Consolidations TB 21,000 22,200 ADRO 1,215 1,310 1,275 1,400 1,500 Bullish harami cross TB 1,250 1,400
Propert y
LPCK 2,400 2,650 2,740 2,880 3,000 Stoch dead-cross PS 2,600 WSKT 1,680 1,850 1,910 2,070 2,200 Bearish momentum W 1,900 PWON 595 625 635 660 700 Break out support MA50 W 620
Trading
UNTR 23,000 24,000 24,825 25,425 27,000 Bearish momentum W 24,200 SCMA 1,600 1,700 1,745 1,800 1,900 Bearish momentum W 1,710
LPPF 5,325 6,000 6,750 7,000 8,000 Oversold TB 6,500 7,000 ERAA 1,600 1,875 2,090 2,100 2,400 Bearish momentum W 2,080
Equity Technical Analyst: Lanjar Nafi, lanjar@reliancesekuritas.com
Disclaimer on
St op-loss Target Price
Wednesday, 13 February 2019
Equity Technical Indicator
Re sistance P rice Sup p o rt We e kly We e kly
Fractal 12/02/2019 Fractal Hig h Lo w RSI B. Band 20 Days 50 Days 200 Days
Equity Technical Indicator
Re sistance P rice Sup p o rt We e kly We e kly
Fractal 12/02/2019 Fractal Hig h Lo w RSI B. Band 20 Days 50 Days 200 Days
PN BN .JK 1,450 1,385 1,315 1,435 1,355 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
PTBA.JK 4,470 4,190 4,220 4,340 4,290 Neutral Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Upper
PTPP.JK 2,370 2,150 2,210 2,330 2,270 Neutral Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Upper Upper
PWON .JK 650 635 650 695 660 Neutral Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Upper
RALS.JK 1,710 1,775 1,615 1,855 1,685 Neutral Bullish Overbought Upper Bands Upper Upper Upper
ROTI.JK 1,240 1,200 1,205 1,240 1,230 Neutral Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Upper Upper
SCMA.JK 1,855 1,745 1,790 1,855 1,835 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SGRO.JK 2,420 2,340 2,320 2,340 2,250 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SIDO.jk 840 830 805 840 835 Neutral Bearish Neutral Upper Bands Upper Under Upper
SILO.JK 3,400 3,990 3,160 4,150 3,290 Neutral Bullish Overbought Upper Bands Upper Upper Under
SIMP.JK 530 490 505 530 510 Neutral Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Upper Under
SMBR.JK 1,680 1,560 1,500 1,660 1,590 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SMCB.JK 1,995 2,010 1,980 2,020 1,990 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
SMGR.JK 13,200 12,300 12,250 13,025 12,550 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
SMRA.JK 1,070 920 950 1,000 965 Oversold Bullish Neutral Lower Bands Under Upper Upper
SRIL.JK 350 342 336 350 340 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Under Under
SSMS.JK 1,200 1,165 1,165 1,200 1,185 Neutral Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Under
TBIG.JK 4,830 4,620 4,610 4,830 4,720 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
TBLA.JK 990 865 945 990 930 Neutral Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Upper
TIN S.JK 1,430 1,310 1,265 1,400 1,340 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TKIM.JK 13,950 12,325 13,000 13,600 12,850 Oversold Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Upper Under
TLKM.JK 3,930 3,820 3,780 3,940 3,850 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
TOTL.JK 650 615 610 650 625 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TOWR.JK 860 805 720 860 830 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TPIA.JK 5,925 5,400 5,375 5,850 5,550 Oversold Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
ULTJ.JK 1,270 1,205 1,190 1,225 1,220 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
UN TR.JK 26,775 24,825 25,625 26,775 25,625 Neutral Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Under
UN V R.JK 50,050 49,100 48,500 49,900 49,700 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
WIKA.JK 1,945 1,750 1,835 1,890 1,830 Neutral Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Upper
WOOD.JK 625 690 580 735 640 Overbought Bearish Overbought Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
WSBP.JK 420 392 384 420 404 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
WSKT.JK 2,040 1,910 1,830 2,050 1,975 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
WTON .JK 505 466 402 505 460 Overbought Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
Source : Reliance Research
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