Riset Saham Harian
Samuel Research 03 April 2017
www.samuel.co.id Page 1 of 6
Sentimen beragam, IHSG berpotensi flat
Bursa AS ditutup melemah pada jumat lalu seiring memudarnya ekspektasi akan kebijakan pro-growth Trump. Setelah kegagalannya menggantikan Obamacare, investor semakin tidak yakin bahwa rencana penurunan pajak akan berhasil. Di sisi ekonomi, consumer sentiment tercatat di bawah ekspektasi, sementara Chicago PMI tercatat sedikit melebihi ekspektasi.
Di dalam negeri, IHSG turun 0,44% ke posisi 5.568 pada jumat lalu.
Keputusan pemerintah untuk tidak menaikkan harga BBM golongan subsidi hingga Juni 2017 menjadi hal yang melegakan di tengah-tengah tekanan inflasi yang telah meningkat. Namun, penguatan indeks dolar AS akhir-akhir ini masih perlu diwaspadai. Melihat pergerakan bursa global dan EIDO, IHSG berpotensi untuk cenderung flat hari ini.
Highlights
Perbankan: Kredit masih lemah
SMGR: Akan emisi obligasi Rp 3 triliun
MAPI: Menambah empat gerai di Vietnam
ASRI: Kinerja FY16 inline : 5,568.1
: -24.8 (-0.44%) : 4,050 Mn shrs : 5,327 Bn rupiah
Close Last +/- %
BBNI 6,475 100 1.6
PNBN 905 65 7.7
SMBR 3,480 150 4.5
IIKP 2,950 410 16.1
HMSP 3,900 -100 -2.5
BBCA 16,550 -275 -1.6
UNTR 26,500 -1350 -4.8
UNVR 43,325 -375 -0.9
Foreign Net Buy / Sell
Net Buy (Rpbn) Net Sell (Rpbn)
TLKM 157 BMRI (128)
PTBA 65 BBNI (78)
PWON 19 ONLF (63)
INDF 17 ASII (48)
BJTM 15 UNTR (32) Money Market
Last
Close +/- %
USD/IDR 13,316 -10.0 0.1
JIBOR O/N 4.4 0.0 -
Infl (MoM) 0.2 - -
Dual Listing Securities Last
Close +/- %
TLKM 31.2 0.0 0.1
ISAT 41.0 0.3 0.7
EIDO 25.8 -0.1 -0.5
World Indices Last
Close +/- %
DJIA 20,663 -65 -0.3
S&P 500 2,363 -5 -0.2
Euro Stoxx 3,501 19 0.6
MSCI World 1,854 -6 -0.3
Nikkei 18,954 45 0.2
Hang Seng 24,112 -190 -0.8
Commodities Last
Close +/- %
Brent Oil 53 0.0 -0.1
CPO Malay 2,581 -14.0 -0.5
Coal Newc 83 1.0 1.2
Nickel 9,997 -110.0 -1.1
Tin 20,230 51.0 0.3
Market Value
Changes Leading Movers
Market Activity Monday, 03 Apr 2017 Market Index Index Movement Market Volume
Changes Changes
Changes
Changes
Lagging Movers
Riset Saham Harian
03 April 2017
www.samuel.co.id Page 2 of 6
Perbankan: Kredit masih lemah
Pada bulan Februari lalu, kredit diestimasikan BI tumbuh 8,4%yoy. Sejumlah analis memperkirakan kredit di 1Q17 masih akan relatif lemah sejalan dengan keyakinan konsumen dan belanja pemerintah yang masih lemah. Sementara itu, OJK memprediksi pertumbuhan kredit di 1Q17 hanya 8,5% yoy. (Bisnis Indonesia) Banking: Neutral.
SMGR: Akan emisi obligasi Rp 3 triliun
PT Semen Indonesia Tbk (SMGR) akan menerbitkan obligasi senilai Rp 3 triliun dari penawaran umum berkelanjutan senilai total Rp 8 triliun pada 1H17. Dana hasil penerbitan obligasi akan digunakan untku sumber pendanaan belanja modal yang diperkirakan mencapai 15 – 20% dari pendapatan perusahaan. 3 perusahaan sekuritas BUMN ditunjuk menjadi pelaksana penjamin emisi. (Bisnis Indonesia) SMGR: HOLD 13.2 x P/E17E dan 1.7x PBV 17E.
MAPI: Menambah empat gerai di Vietnam
• Setelah sukses membuka gerai Zara pertama, PT Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk. (MAPI) kembali membuka tiga sampai empat gerai barunya. Manajemen menuturkan akan membuka 200 gerai secara keseluruhan dengan anggaran capex senilai Rp700 miliar.
• Adapun penambahan gerai terdiri dari sektor makanan dan minuman, sektor fashion (Zara, Stradivarius, Pull and Bear, Cotton On, Marks & Spencer), serta sektor sport (Planet Sport, Sport Station, dan Kids Station). (Bisnis Indonesia) MAPI: Buy 36.7x P/E17E dan 2.8x PBV 17E.
ASRI: Kinerja FY16 inline
• PT Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (ASRI), ASRI membukukan penurunan pendapatan -2.4%YoY, sejalan dengan perkiraan kami. Di periode yang sama top line mencapai 96.2% dari FY16E SSI dan 85.4% vs FY16E konsensus. Sama halnya dengan laba bersih yang turun -14.7%YoY menjadi Rp508.7miliar atau sesuai dengan proyeksi kami sebesar Rp508.8miliar (FY16E).
• Update lebih detail akan kami berikan dalam bentuk (Company Update ASRI FY16) ASRI:
Hold 10.6x P/E17E dan 0.9 x PBV 17E.
Riset Saham Harian
03 April 2017
www.samuel.co.id Page 3 of 6
Ticker Rec. Mkt Cap Last price 1D Chg YTD Chg TP Cons TP SSI Upside PE PE PBV PBV ROE ROE
(Rp bn) (Rp) (%) (%) (Rp) (Rp) (%) 17E 18E 17E 18E 17E 18E
Banks
BMRI HOLD 273,000 11700 (0.6) 1.1 11481 12400 6.0 12.2 11.8 1.6 1.5 13.1% 12.4%
BBCA BUY 408,040 16550 (1.6) 6.8 17016 17100 3.3 17.6 16.6 3.2 2.7 17.9% 16.5%
BBRI BUY 320,082 12975 0.2 11.1 13422 13500 4.0 11.4 10.0 1.9 1.7 16.8% 16.8%
BBNI BUY 120,750 6475 1.6 17.2 6833 6600 1.9 8.5 7.6 1.2 1.1 14.5% 14.4%
BBTN BUY 24,039 2270 (0.4) 30.5 2432 2570 13.2 7.7 7.2 1.1 1.0 14.4% 13.7%
Average 11.5 10.6 1.8 1.6 15.3% 14.8%
Consumer (Staples)
ICBP BUY 95,045 8150 (1.2) (5.0) 9528 10300 26.4 22.9 20.1 4.8 4.2 20.8% 20.9%
INDF BUY 70,243 8000 0.0 0.9 9884 9900 23.8 15.0 13.1 2.1 1.9 14.2% 14.9%
KLBF BUY 72,188 1540 (0.6) 1.7 1696 1700 10.4 28.5 25.2 5.4 4.8 19.0% 19.0%
ROTI BUY 7,795 1540 0.3 (3.8) 1806 2050 33.1 22.3 19.0 4.6 3.8 20.5% 20.2%
ULTJ BUY 12,362 4280 0.9 (6.3) 5350 5300 23.8 16.1 14.6 3.0 2.6 18.9% 17.5%
UNVR HOLD 330,570 43325 (0.9) 11.7 44783 45200 4.3 46.3 41.3 54.0 47.2 116.6% 114.4%
SIDO BUY 8,475 565 0.0 8.7 685 700 23.9 15.7 12.5 3.0 2.8 18.9% 22.4%
AISA BUY 7,049 2190 2.8 12.6 2548 2440 11.4 13.4 12.7 1.6 1.5 12.2% 11.5%
Average 22.5 19.8 9.8 8.6 30.1% 30.1%
Cigarette
HMSP BUY 453,640 3900 (2.5) 1.8 4133 4390 12.6 35.1 33.9 12.0 0.3 34.3% 1.0%
GGRM BUY 126,076 65525 (1.8) 2.5 77027 77150 17.7 18.6 17.5 2.6 2.4 14.1% 13.4%
Average 26.8 25.7 7.3 1.3 24.2% 7.2%
Healthcare
MIKA BUY 38,414 2640 0.0 2.7 3036 2950 11.7 48.9 44.7 9.6 8.7 19.6% 19.3%
SILO HOLD 18,209 14000 0.2 28.4 13369 12500 -10.7 172.8 135.9 5.7 5.2 3.3% 3.8%
Average 110.9 90.3 7.6 6.9 11.4% 11.6%
Poultry
CPIN BUY 52,474 3200 (3.0) 3.6 3353 4500 40.6 13.5 12.5 1.7 1.6 12.8% 12.4%
JPFA BUY 17,629 1545 0.7 6.2 2019 2200 42.4 8.5 7.7 1.6 1.4 18.7% 17.6%
MAIN BUY 2,742 1225 (0.8) (5.8) 1635 1730 41.2 6.6 5.9 1.0 0.9 15.6% 15.5%
Average 9.5 8.7 1.5 1.3 15.7% 15.2%
Retail
MAPI BUY 9,919 5975 5.3 10.6 6404 7700 28.9 36.7 26.4 2.8 2.6 7.8% 9.8%
RALS BUY 7,912 1115 (0.9) (6.7) 1541 1750 57.0 17.2 13.6 2.1 1.9 12.0% 13.9%
ACES HOLD 14,149 825 1.2 (1.2) 936 825 0.0 20.1 17.2 4.5 3.8 22.2% 21.8%
LPPF BUY 38,444 13175 0.4 (12.9) 15810 19500 48.0 13.9 13.4 11.3 8.0 81.1% 60.0%
Average 22.0 17.7 5.2 4.1 30.8% 26.4%
Telco
EXCL BUY 32,705 3060 (5.0) 32.5 3369 3200 4.6 82.7 54.6 1.5 1.5 1.8% 2.7%
ISAT BUY 38,038 7000 0.4 8.5 8395 7200 2.9 21.6 13.6 2.5 2.2 11.7% 16.2%
TLKM BUY 416,304 4130 (0.2) 3.8 4656 5000 21.1 17.2 13.3 4.1 3.6 24.0% 26.7%
TOWR BUY 39,587 3880 (1.8) 8.4 4533 4500 16.0 11.3 10.6 2.8 2.2 24.5% 20.7%
Average 33.2 23.0 2.7 2.4 15.5% 16.6%
Auto and HE
ASII BUY 349,171 8625 (0.6) 4.2 9138 9000 4.3 15.6 13.3 2.7 2.2 17.2% 16.4%
UNTR BUY 98,849 26500 (4.8) 24.7 28266 27500 3.8 14.6 12.9 2.2 2.0 15.2% 15.3%
Average 15.1 13.1 2.5 2.1 16.2% 15.9%
Aviation
GIAA HOLD 8,853 342 (0.6) 1.2 368 420 22.8 #DIV/0! 25.7 0.6 0.4 #DIV/0! 1.7%
Property
BSDE BUY 36,280 1885 1.3 7.4 2352 2350 24.7 18.1 15.2 1.1 0.9 6.2% 5.8%
PWON BUY 29,618 615 3.4 8.8 709 710 15.4 15.0 12.6 2.9 2.4 19.2% 19.3%
ASRI HOLD 7,113 362 (0.5) 2.8 442 390 7.7 10.6 10.1 0.9 0.9 8.8% 8.7%
SMRA BUY 19,332 1340 0.4 1.1 1537 1550 15.7 27.7 26.1 2.3 2.1 8.4% 8.2%
SSIA BUY 3,082 655 (4.4) 50.9 844 750 14.5 14.6 12.1 1.0 0.9 6.6% 7.5%
CTRA BUY 22,829 1230 1.2 (7.9) 1672 1580 28.5 12.1 9.9 1.3 1.2 11.0% 12.4%
DMAS BUY 10,989 228 0.9 (0.9) 320 300 31.6 16.3 13.4 1.3 1.2 8.0% 8.9%
KIJA BUY 6,819 330 0.6 13.0 400 450 36.4 11.0 9.7 1.1 1.0 10.1% 10.3%
Average 15.7 13.6 1.5 1.3 9.8% 10.1%
Construction
PTPP BUY 20,522 3310 0.0 (13.1) 4873 4150 25.4 14.7 12.4 1.7 1.6 11.8% 12.6%
ADHI HOLD 8,439 2370 0.4 13.9 2565 2550 7.6 25.5 21.4 1.5 1.4 6.0% 6.5%
WSKT BUY 32,170 2370 (1.7) (7.1) 3329 3250 37.1 14.2 11.2 1.7 1.6 11.7% 14.2%
WIKA BUY 21,618 2410 (0.8) 2.1 3131 3000 24.5 19.4 17.0 1.6 1.4 8.0% 8.3%
Average 18.5 15.5 1.6 1.5 9.4% 10.4%
Cement
INTP SELL 61,108 16600 (0.3) 7.8 15905 13500 -18.7 16.8 15.8 2.2 2.0 12.9% 12.6%
SMGR HOLD 53,384 9000 1.7 (1.9) 9797 9000 0.0 13.2 12.0 1.7 1.5 12.9% 12.9%
SMCB SELL 6,935 905 0.6 0.6 804 700 -22.7 -37.7 -30.2 0.9 0.9 -2.3% -2.8%
SMBR HOLD 34,235 3480 4.5 24.7 458 2300 -33.9 91.6 87.0 9.2 8.1 10.0% 9.3%
Average 21.0 21.1 3.5 3.1 8.4% 8.0%
Precast
WSBP BUY 13,181 500 (2.0) (9.9) 713 690 38.0 19.7 12.8 1.6 1.4 8.0% 10.6%
WTON BUY 6,842 785 (1.3) (4.8) 1123 1150 46.5 20.7 17.8 2.2 1.9 10.9% 10.6%
Average 20.2 15.3 1.9 1.6 9.4% 10.6%
Riset Saham Harian
03 April 2017
www.samuel.co.id Page 4 of 6
Oil and Gas
PGAS HOLD 61,331 2530 (0.8) (6.3) 3018 2600 2.8 13.9 11.3 1.3 1.2 9.4% 10.7%
AKRA BUY 24948.6 6250.0 -0.8 4.2 7175.4 7600 21.6 21.3 21.1 3.3 3.0 15.2% 14.0%
MEDC BUY 11,664 3500 (1.1) 165.2 3039 4500 28.6 5.7 6.7 1.0 0.9 17.7% 13.4%
Average 13.7 13.0 1.9 1.7 0.1 0.1
Utilities
JSMR BUY 33,531 4620 (0.2) 6.9 5583 5000 8.2 17.4 23.1 2.4 2.3 13.9% 9.8%
Metal
ANTM BUY 17,542 730 0.7 (18.4) 991 1250 71.2 8.5 4.6 0.8 0.8 10.0% 17.8%
INCO BUY 23,748 2390 3.9 (15.2) 2804 3500 46.4 26.0 15.1 1.0 0.9 3.7% 6.2%
TINS BUY 7,411 995 2.1 (7.4) 1253 1200 20.6 47.4 29.3 1.4 1.3 2.9% 4.5%
Average 27.3 16.3 1.1 1.0 5.5% 9.5%
Coal
DOID BUY 7825.5 940.0 1.6 84.3 950.0 1050 11.7 7.9 5.9 2.9 1.9 37.5% 32.4%
ITMG BUY 22,824 20200 1.4 19.7 20642 19000 -5.9 8.7 7.7 1.7 1.6 19.6% 20.5%
ADRO BUY 55,975 1750 (3.8) 3.2 1972 2100 20.0 13.3 12.1 1.1 1.1 8.5% 8.7%
PTBA BUY 30,415 13200 2.1 5.6 14891 15000 13.6 13.6 11.0 2.7 2.4 19.9% 21.5%
Average 10.9 9.2 2.1 1.7 21.4% 20.8%
Plantation
AALI BUY 28,678 14900 (1.7) (11.2) 17858 19800 32.9 16.3 13.7 1.8 1.7 10.7% 12.1%
LSIP BUY 9,995 1465 0.0 (15.8) 1754 2050 39.9 13.2 10.2 1.2 1.1 9.1% 10.9%
SIMP BUY 9,885 625 0.0 26.5 560 600 -4.0 14.2 11.0 0.7 0.6 4.9% 5.8%
Average 14.6 11.6 1.2 1.1 8.2% 9.6%
Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg
Note: GIAA, PGAS, ITMG, ADRO, INCO, DOID report in USD.
Riset Saham Harian
03 April 2017
www.samuel.co.id Page 5 of 6
Regional Indices 1D Change
Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low
World (6.26) 1,854 (0.34) (0.17) 0.46 0.25 5.44 5.85 13.02 1,869 1,567
U.S. (S&P) (5.34) 2,363 (0.23) 0.18 0.80 (0.86) 4.65 5.53 13.99 2,401 1,992
U.S. (DOW) (65.27) 20,663 (0.31) (0.18) 0.32 (1.63) 3.93 4.56 16.13 21,169 17,063
Europe 19.35 3,501 0.56 1.03 1.65 2.87 5.61 6.39 18.54 3,501 2,678
Emerging Market (11.10) 958 (1.14) (1.39) (0.76) 2.93 10.36 11.14 16.00 980 781
FTSE 100 (46.60) 7,323 (0.63) (0.28) (0.19) (0.70) 2.02 2.52 n/a 7,447 5,789
CAC 40 32.87 5,123 0.65 1.51 2.02 2.55 4.56 5.35 18.52 5,123 3,956
Dax 56.44 12,313 0.46 1.35 2.06 2.37 6.29 7.25 25.71 12,313 9,214
Indonesia (24.85) 5,568 (0.44) 0.49 0.08 3.28 5.54 5.12 14.97 5,606 4,691
Japan 26.13 18,935 0.14 (1.47) (0.26) (2.74) (0.94) (0.94) 17.14 19,668 14,864
Australia 2.50 5,867 0.04 (0.10) 2.10 2.41 2.34 3.56 17.36 5,902 4,894
Korea 1.61 2,162 0.07 (0.24) 0.29 4.00 5.77 6.68 9.54 2,182 1,893
Singapore 1.87 3,175 0.06 0.55 1.02 1.69 9.53 10.22 12.65 3,188 2,703
Malaysia (9.16) 1,740 (0.52) (0.82) (0.32) 1.86 6.39 5.99 1.73 1,760 1,612
Hong Kong (189.50) 24,112 (0.78) (0.96) (1.01) 2.37 8.85 9.60 17.62 24,657 19,595
China 12.28 3,223 0.38 (0.94) (1.44) 0.13 2.76 3.83 7.08 3,301 2,781
Taiwan (36.63) 9,812 (0.37) (0.66) (0.92) 1.69 5.81 6.03 13.33 9,977 8,000
Thailand (4.77) 1,575 (0.30) (0.10) 0.10 0.57 2.08 2.08 12.45 1,601 1,343
Philipines (20.87) 7,312 (0.28) (0.27) 0.58 0.89 6.56 6.89 0.92 8,118 6,499
Monetary Indicators 1D Change
Points 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low
JIBOR Overnight (%) 0.00 4.37 0.22 0.17 (8.00) 3.18 (10.86) 5.58 4.16
Foreign Reserve (US$bn) n/a 119.86 n/a 2.54 7.53 3.01 14.65 119.86 103.59
Inflation Rate (%) n/a 0.23 n/a (76.29) (51.06) (45.24) 355.56 0.97 (0.45)
US Fed Rate (%) 0.00 1.00 0.00 33.33 33.33 33.33 100.00 1.00 0.50
Indo Govt Bond Yld (10yr) - % 0.00 7.04 (1.04) (6.59) (11.66) (11.66) (8.15) 8.36 6.77
Exchange Rate (per US$) 1D Change
Currency Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low
Indonesia 10.00 13326 (0.08) (0.12) 0.01 0.08 1.10 1.10 (0.50) 13,698 12,920
Japan (0.20) 111.19 0.18 (0.13) (0.48) 2.56 5.19 5.19 0.13 118.66 99.02
UK (0.00) 1.25 (0.07) 0.86 (0.14) 2.03 1.63 1.63 (12.08) 1.50 1.18
Euro 0.00 1.07 0.23 (0.84) (1.73) 0.51 1.51 1.51 (6.28) 1.16 1.03
China (0.00) 6.89 0.03 (0.11) (0.05) (0.29) 0.84 0.84 (6.30) 6.96 6.46
Commodities Indicators 1D Change
Spot Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low
Oil 0.01 50.61 0.02 2.22 6.03 (5.10) (3.29) (5.79) 37.56 55.24 35.24
CPO (14.00) 2,581.00 (0.54) (4.65) (6.28) (6.82) (16.98) (16.98) (5.28) 3,202.00 2,172.00
Rubber (9.00) 1,036.00 (0.86) (1.10) (1.85) (7.91) 5.98 5.98 55.91 1,174.00 644.00
Coal 0.95 82.95 1.16 0.06 1.72 (0.60) (12.41) (12.41) 62.33 112.25 69.00
Iron Ore (0.26) 80.10 (0.32) (1.33) (5.58) (13.37) 2.61 2.61 52.28 94.91 46.80
Tin 51.00 20,230.00 0.25 0.87 1.76 5.34 (4.60) (4.60) 20.93 21,945.00 15,494.00
Nickel (110.00) 10,025.00 (1.09) 0.30 1.57 (8.70) 0.05 0.05 18.08 12,145.00 8,245.00
Copper (118.50) 5,837.50 (1.99) (0.60) 0.58 (2.27) 5.46 5.46 20.44 6,204.00 4,483.50
Gold 0.00 1,249.50 0.00 (0.34) (0.49) 1.88 7.53 8.65 2.18 1,377.50 1,124.70
Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg
Last Price
Last Price Change (%) 1 Year
Change (%) 1 Year
Last Price
Last Price Change (%) 1 Year
Change (%) 1 Year
DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
