Market Review
IHSG (+0.37%) menguat 23.98 poin kelevel 6525.36 dengan transaksi investor asing kembali tercatat net buy sebesar 260.49 miliar rupiah seiring penguatan nilai tukar rupiah sebesar 0.28% kelevel Rp14.018 per USD. Indeks sektor Infrastruktur (+1.30%) dan Industri Dasar (+0.99%) menjadi pemimpin penguatan sektoral pada perdagangan awal pekan. Saham TLKM (+1.82%) dan FREN (+10.64%) menjadi pemimpin kontributor penguatan. Sedangkan Ekuitas sektor pertanian (-1.04%) menahan pergerakan IHSG dengan memimpin pelemahan. Ketidakpastian dari retribusi eksport CPO dalam negeri untuk bulan depan dimana strategi awal pemerintah berniat menaikan retribusi eksport CPO ke level $25 per ton.
Leader:
BBRI, TLKM, BMRI, FREN, TPIA Laggard:
UNVR, UNTR, BNLI, ICBP, HMSP
Pergerakan IHSG secara teknikal masih cukup amat dengan bergerak kembali diatas Moving Average dan terlihat kuat diatas level 6500. Potensi pergerakan menguat masih akan terasa meskipun sedikit tertahan melihat kondisi Indikator Stochastic yang terkonsolidasi pada area jenuh beli. Sehinggan diperkirakan IHSG masih akan mencoba menguat terbatas menguji resistance upper bollinger bands dengan rentang pergerakan 6514-6600. Saham-saham masih dapat menjadi watchlist diantaranya INKP, WTON, JPFA, BBTN, BMRI, ASII, INCO, WSKT, MAPI, RALS
Mayoritas ekuitas saham Asia dibuka lebih optimis. Indeks Nikkei (+0.35%) dan TOPIX (+0.18%) dijepang menguat sedangkan KOSPI (+0.02%) dibuka terkonsolidasi. Optimisme pasar Asia masih akan terkontaminasi positif terhadap penundaan tanggal meningkatan tarif import barang-barang china sebagai tanda kemajuan substansial dalam pembicaraan perdagangan. Harga minyak WTI (+3.4%) turun menjadi $55.34 perbarrel merupakan penurunan pertama dalam sembilan sesi perdagangan setelah optimisme pemangkasan produksi anggota OPEC. Harga timah (+1.11%) menguat signifikan sedangkan Nikel (-0.15%) terkoreksi wajar.
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan
Analisis
:
• Candlestick membentuk pola bullish engulfing. Indikasi menguat menguji resistance.
• Stop-loss jika harga saham terkonfirmasi break out support bullish trend
• Indikator stochastic terkonsolidasi pada area tengah namun indikasi RSI terlihat cukup murah dengan volume trading pembelian yang cukup tinggi.
• Support : 6125-6725
• Resistance : 7300-8000
• Stop-loss : 6900
• Target Price : 8000
SPECULATIVE BUY
CPIN
Analisis
:
• Candlestick membentuk pola bullish harami dengan indikasi menguat menguji resistance dan target Wave 5.
• Stop-loss jika harga saham break out level support
• Indikator Stochastic berindikasi membentuk pola golden-cross dengan RSI yang bullish reversal momentum.
• Support : 855-970
• Resistance : 1140-1280
• Stop-loss : 950
• Target Price : 1150-1465
SPECULATIVE BUY
Analisis
:
• Candlestick membentuk pola bullish separating line. Indikasi menguat menuji resistance
• Stop-loss jika harga saham terkonfirmasi break out support • Indikator stochastic bergerak pada
area oversold dengan pola golden-cross.
• Support : 595-625
• Resistance : 665-720
• Stop-loss : 620
• Target Price : 665-720
SPECULATIVE BUY
PWON
Analisis
:
• Terkonsolidasi pada level support berindikasi menguji resistance MA50 dan bearish trend line.
• Stop-loss jika break out support MA200
• Indikator Stochastic bergerak pada area oversold dengan indikasi pola golden-cross dan RSI yang mulai terlihat bullish reversal momentum.
• Support : 1800-2000
• Resistance : 2270-2460
• Stop-loss : 1965
• Target Price : 2130-2280
TRADING BUY
LS-27 Index
Legend :
B: BUY (allocate till 100% of the weighted capital to accumulate, higher than 50% upside probability) SB: SPECULATIVE BUY (allocate 25%-50% of the weighted capital to accumulate, 25%-50% upside probability) W: WAIT (wait for proper entry level, do the stop-loss if necessary)
H: HOLD (hold the portfolio position, aim for the best price to distribute)
PS: PARTIAL SELL (distribute 25%-50% part of the portfolio, 25%-50% downside probability) S: SELL (distribute till 100% of the portfolio, higher than 50% downside probability)
TB: TRADING BUY (short term or intraday trading within a tight trading range. Highly speculative).
Analyst Conclusions:
The Index has reached the wave 3.
Support Support Resist ance Resist ance
2 1 1 2
Agricult ure
TBLA 750 810 860 885 955 Consolidations TB 880 955 AALI 12,000 12,750 13,100 13,575 14,350 Bearish momentum W 13,000
SSMS 1,050 1,115 1,110 1,180 2,250 Consolidations W 1,100 Basic Indust ry
TKIM 9,325 10,900 11,350 12,350 14,150 Consolidations TB 11,200 12,700 INKP 10,700 11,700 12,050 13,000 14,440 Consolidations TB 11,500 13,000 CPIN 6,125 6,700 7,200 7,200 8,000 Bullish engulfing TB 7,100 800 Consumer
GGRM 77,000 80,800 84,500 84,500 88,000 Stoch golden-cross TB 82,000 88,000 HOKI 580 620 610 675 720 Break out support W 600
ICBP 9,400 9,800 10,400 10,450 11,400 Consolidations TB 10,000 11,400 UNVR 47,200 49,000 49,975 51,400 53,000 whipsaw support TB 49,500 51,400 Finance
BBRI 3,750 3,940 3,940 4,100 4,200 Consolidations H 3,920 4,100 BBNI 8,200 8,650 8,850 9,100 9,525 Consolidations TB 8,600 9,100 BBCA 25,800 26,800 27,775 28,275 29,750 Whipsaw MA5 B 27,500 28,275 Infrast ruct ure
TOWR 750 770 790 850 910 Oversold PS 760 PGAS 2,250 2,410 2,640 2,600 2,720 Stoch dead-cross PS 2,550 Misc. Indust ry
SRIL 322 340 350 350 374 Break out resistance H 348 374 ASII 7,200 7,500 7,600 7,800 8,100 Double bottom SB 7,600 8,100 Mining
PTBA 3,700 3,870 4,150 4,170 4,500 Pulled back MA200 W 4,100 ITMG 20,500 22,000 22,175 23,000 24,700 Bearish momentum S 21,000 ADRO 1,215 1,310 1,350 1,410 1,500 Pulled back bearish trend S 1,300 Propert y
LPCK 2,300 2,400 2,600 2,650 2,880 Bearish momentum PS 2,580
WSKT 1,510 1,680 1,850 1,870 2,050 Consolidations TB 1,840 1,900 PWON 595 625 640 660 700 Bullish kicker signal SB 635 660 Trading
UNTR 25,425 27,000 27,800 28,500 29,750 Reached the regresion PS 27,000
SCMA 1,600 1,700 1,750 1,800 1,900 Consolidations TB 1,700 1,850 LPPF 4,890 5,325 5,700 6,000 7,000 Consolidations TB 5,600 6,400 ERAA 1,875 2,100 2,200 2,400 2,670 Bullish consolidations SB 2,180 2,400
Equity Technical Analyst: Lanjar Nafi, lanjar@reliancesekuritas.com
Disclaimer on
St op-loss Target Price
Wednesday, 27 February 2019
Equity Technical Indicator
Re sistance P rice Sup p o rt We e kly We e kly
Fractal 26/02/2019 Fractal Hig h Lo w RSI B. Band 20 Days 50 Days 200 Days
Equity Technical Indicator
Re sistance P rice Sup p o rt We e kly We e kly
Fractal 26/02/2019 Fractal Hig h Lo w RSI B. Band 20 Days 50 Days 200 Days
PN BN .JK 1,645 1,640 1,315 1,645 1,590 Overbought Bullish Overbought Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
PTBA.JK 4,470 4,150 3,930 4,240 4,160 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
PTPP.JK 2,220 2,030 2,010 2,220 2,060 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
PWON .JK 665 640 635 660 635 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
RALS.JK 1,825 1,715 1,670 1,800 1,740 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
ROTI.JK 1,240 1,200 1,190 1,210 1,200 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
SCMA.JK 1,855 1,750 1,705 1,855 1,765 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SGRO.JK 2,350 2,260 2,220 2,340 2,260 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SIDO.jk 840 1,035 800 1,035 925 Overbought Bearish Overbought Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
SILO.JK 4,150 3,460 3,430 3,700 3,580 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SIMP.JK 530 484 486 505 498 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SMBR.JK 1,680 1,565 1,505 1,645 1,540 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Under Under
SMCB.JK 2,040 2,010 2,000 2,020 2,010 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
SMGR.JK 12,775 12,925 11,925 13,100 12,875 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
SMRA.JK 990 955 865 990 945 Overbought Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
SRIL.JK 350 350 332 358 338 Neutral Bullish Neutral Upper Bands Upper Upper Upper
SSMS.JK 1,200 1,110 1,120 1,155 1,130 Neutral Bearish Oversold Lower Bands Under Under Under
TBIG.JK 4,680 4,300 4,460 4,560 4,280 Oversold Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
TBLA.JK 990 860 875 905 885 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
TIN S.JK 1,615 1,530 1,270 1,645 1,545 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TKIM.JK 11,800 11,350 11,200 11,800 11,650 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
TLKM.JK 3,940 3,930 3,820 3,940 3,870 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TOTL.JK 650 630 615 635 625 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TOWR.JK 865 790 805 830 805 Oversold Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
TPIA.JK 5,700 5,775 5,350 5,800 5,425 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
ULTJ.JK 1,270 1,215 1,200 1,250 1,220 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
UN TR.JK 26,775 27,800 24,250 28,000 26,350 Overbought Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Under
UN V R.JK 50,125 49,975 47,925 50,125 49,600 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
WEGE.JK 342 308 292 334 320 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
WIKA.JK 1,945 1,755 1,635 1,795 1,760 Overbought Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
WOOD.JK 735 845 695 860 775 Neutral Bullish Overbought Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
WSBP.JK 390 378 368 390 384 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
WSKT.JK 1,875 1,850 1,745 1,875 1,850 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
Source : Reliance Research
T icke r Ind icato r Mo ving Ave rag e
