Market Review
IHSG (+0.28%) menguat sekitar 18.12 poin menjelang penutupan kelevel 6512.78 dengan sektor Industri Dasar (+1.6%) berbalik rebound setelah menjadi penekan diperdagangan sebelumnya dan sektor Property (+1.02%) menguat lebih dari sepersen. Saham-saham produsen semen menjadi kontributor penguatan dengan INTP (+8.33%) dan SMGR (+3.41%) menguat signifikan. Secara fundamental SMGR memiliki PER cukup murah dari perusahaan sejenis sebesar 2.53x berbanding INTP sebesar 3.11x dengan rata-rata PER perusahaan sejenis sebesar 2.79x. Meskipun data penjualan semen di Indonesia turun 1.3% dari tahun sebelumnya pada bulan Januari 2019 dan SMGR mengalami penurunan penjualan 6.3% dari tahun sebelumnya atau turun sebesar 200 ribu ton. Investor asing tercatat net buy 450.27 miliar rupiah seiring penguatan rupiah yang cukup optimis sebesar 0.42% kelevel Rp14.044 per USD.
Leader:
BBCA, UNVR, INTP, CPIN, SMGR Laggard:
TLKM, BMRI, GGRM, BBRI, BNLI
Pergerakan IHSG secara teknikal kembali terkonsolidasi dengan bertahan dan mampi break out level 6500. Indikator Stochastic bergerak positif mengarah pada area jenuh beli dengan momentum RSI yang masih berpeluang menguat optimis. Sehingga peluang IHSG terkus bergerak melanjutkan trend positifnya menguji resistance 6600 cukup terbuka dengan support resistance pada perdagangan selanjutnya dilevel 6478-6600. Saham-saham yang dapat menjadi perhatian diantaranya INKP, TKIM, WSBP, INTP, SMGR, BBCA, BMRI, HRUM, ANTM, INCO, WSKT, ADHI, WIKA.
Indeks Nikkei (-0.22%) dan TOPIX (-0.28%) terkonsolidasi cenderung koreksi membuka perdagangan mayoritas indeks saham di Asia seiring penguatan Yen yang kembali terasa diawal sesi perdagangan pagi ini. The Fed menyatakan lebih dovish dalam kenaikan suku bunga lebih lanjut tanpa mengesampingkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Fitch Rating mengatakan akan memangkas peringkat utang Inggris atas ketidakpastian seputar Brexit sehingga berpeluang besar terimbas negatif pada pergerakan Poundsterling. Harga minyak WTI (+0.1%) kembali berada pada trend penguatan dilevel $57.19 perbarrel setelah rilisnya laporan penurunan stok minyak AS dan peningkatan pasokan yang dibawah ekspektasi. Harga komoditas logam kembali memimpin dengan Nikel (+2.01%) menguat signifikan diikuti dengan Timah (+0.40%) dan Emas (+0.22%).
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan
Analisis
:
•
Candlestick
membentuk
pola
bullish
kicker
signal
dengan
potensi
whipsaw
MA50
dan
menguji resistance bearish trend
line.
•
Stop-loss
jika
harga
saham
terkonfirmasi break out support
MA5
•
Indikator stochastic bergerak pada
terkonsolidasi pada area oversold
dengan pola golden-cross
•
Support
: 1160-1240
•
Resistance
: 1330-1440
•
Stop-loss
: 1280
•
Target Price
: 1400
SPECULATIVE BUY
BSDE
Analisis
:
•
Bullish momentum setelah whipsaw
MA200. Indikasi menguat ke level
resistance.
•
Stop-loss jika harga saham break
out support MA200
•
Indikator Stochastic bergerak pada
momentum positif mendekati area
overbought.
•
Support
: 3210-3530
•
Resistance
: 3900-4220
•
Stop-loss
: 3570
Analisis
:
•
Pergerakan
harga
saham
mengkonfirmasi
pola
bullish
harami dengan break out MA5.
Indikasi menguji FR61,8% hingga
resistance.
•
Stop-loss
jika
harga
saham
terkonfirmasi break out support
MA5
•
Indikator stochastic bergerak pada
area oversold dan membentuk pola
golden-cross
dengan
bullish
momentum dan volume pembelian
cukup tinggi.
•
Support
: 1540-1640
•
Resistance
: 1845-1980
•
Stop-loss
: 1620
•
Target Price
: 1850
SPECULATIVE BUY
WIKA
Analisis
:
•
Pola
candlestick
membentuk
bullish
separating
line.
Indikasi
menguji resistance upper Bollinger
bands.
•
Stop-loss jika break out support
MA5
•
Indikator Stochastic bergerak pada
area oversold dengan pola
golden-cross dan RSI yang mulai terlihat
bullish reversal momentum.
•
Support
: 238-262
•
Resistance
: 292-326
•
Stop-loss
: 276
LS-27 Index
Legend :
B: BUY (allocate till 100% of the weighted capital to accumulate, higher than 50% upside probability)
SB: SPECULATIVE BUY (allocate 25%-50% of the weighted capital to accumulate, 25%-50% upside probability)
W: WAIT (wait for proper entry level, do the stop-loss if necessary)
H: HOLD (hold the portfolio position, aim for the best price to distribute)
PS: PARTIAL SELL (distribute 25%-50% part of the portfolio, 25%-50% downside probability)
S: SELL (distribute till 100% of the portfolio, higher than 50% downside probability)
TB: TRADING BUY (short term or intraday trading within a tight trading range. Highly speculative).
Analyst Conclusions:
The Index has reached the wave 3.
Support Support Resist ance Resist ance
2 1 1 2
Agricult ure
TBLA 810 885 885 955 1,030 Consolidations SB 880 955 AALI 12,750 13,575 13,800 14,350 15,000 Bullish momentum SB 13,500 14,350 SSMS 1,050 1,115 1,135 1,180 2,250 Consolidations W 1,100
Basic Indust ry
TKIM 9,325 10,900 11,700 12,350 14,150 Consolidations B 11,200 12,700 INKP 10,700 11,700 12,250 13,000 14,440 Consolidations B 10,600 13,000 CPIN 6,700 7,200 7,575 8,000 8,850 Whipsaw MA50 SB 7,100 8,000
Consumer
GGRM 77,000 80,800 83,700 84,500 88,000 False break upper bound PS 83,500 HOKI 580 620 620 675 720 Oversold W 600
ICBP 9,800 10,450 10,500 11,400 12,300 Consolidations TB 10,400 11,400 UNVR 47,100 49,000 50,025 51,400 53,000 Stoch golden-cross H 48,800 51,400
Finance
BBRI 3,550 3,750 3,890 3,940 4,100 Bearish engulfing PS 3,850 BBNI 8,200 8,650 8,825 9,100 9,525 Consolidations W 8,600
BBCA 25,800 26,800 27,500 28,275 29,750 Bullish momentum B 27,000 28,275
Infrast ruct ure
TOWR 750 770 825 850 910 Consolidations PS 840
PGAS 2,250 2,410 2,490 2,600 2,720 Consolidations H 2,500 2,600
Misc. Indust ry
SRIL 300 322 334 340 350 Stoch golden-cross TB 330 350 ASII 7,500 7,800 7,775 8,100 8,500 Bullish kicker signal SB 7,700 8,100
Mining
PTBA 3,870 4,170 4,160 4,500 4,740 Break out resistance SB 4,160 4,500 ITMG 19,350 20,500 21,975 22,000 23,000 Stoch golden-cross SB 21,000 22,000 ADRO 1,130 1,215 1,345 1,310 1,400 Stoch golden-cross B 1,250 1,400
Propert y
LPCK 2,300 2,400 2,760 2,650 2,880 Rebounded at MA20 SB 2,500 2,850 WSKT 1,515 1,680 1,855 1,850 2,070 Bullish harami confirmations TB 1,750 1,850 PWON 595 625 650 660 700 Consolidations W 620
Trading
UNTR 24,000 25,425 26,000 27,000 28,500 Break out MA20 H 25,400 27,000 SCMA 1,600 1,700 1,850 1,800 1,900 Break out MA5 TB 1,780 1,900 LPPF 4,890 5,325 5,925 6,000 7,000 Break out support W 5,300
ERAA 1,875 2,100 2,210 2,400 2,670 Break out resistance SB 2,080 2,320
Equity Technical Analyst: Lanjar Nafi, [email protected]
Disclaimer on
St op-loss Target Price
Thursday, 21 February 2019
Equity Technical Indicator
Re sistance P rice Sup p o rt We e kly We e kly
Fractal 20/02/2019 Fractal Hig h Lo w RSI B. Band 20 Days 50 Days 200 Days
Equity Technical Indicator
Re sistance P rice Sup p o rt We e kly We e kly
Fractal 20/02/2019 Fractal Hig h Lo w RSI B. Band 20 Days 50 Days 200 Days
PN BN .JK 1,450 1,580 1,315 1,610 1,530 Overbought Bearish Overbought Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
PTBA.JK 4,470 4,160 3,930 4,240 4,040 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
PTPP.JK 2,370 2,160 1,995 2,220 2,070 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
PWON .JK 650 650 635 665 650 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
RALS.JK 1,825 1,740 1,615 1,825 1,790 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
ROTI.JK 1,240 1,195 1,195 1,215 1,200 Oversold Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
SCMA.JK 1,855 1,850 1,705 1,850 1,760 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Under Under
SGRO.JK 2,420 2,290 2,210 2,350 2,290 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SIDO.jk 840 920 800 925 815 Neutral Bullish Overbought Upper Bands Upper Upper Upper
SILO.JK 4,150 3,500 3,160 4,100 3,580 Oversold Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Under
SIMP.JK 530 498 486 505 498 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Under
SMBR.JK 1,680 1,515 1,505 1,555 1,520 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SMCB.JK 2,040 2,010 1,980 2,040 2,020 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
SMGR.JK 12,775 12,900 11,925 13,000 12,300 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
SMRA.JK 990 945 865 945 895 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
SRIL.JK 350 334 328 344 340 Neutral Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Under
SSMS.JK 1,200 1,135 1,105 1,165 1,150 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
TBIG.JK 4,680 4,430 4,460 4,680 4,560 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
TBLA.JK 990 885 845 905 880 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
TIN S.JK 1,615 1,480 1,270 1,615 1,445 Neutral Bearish Overbought Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TKIM.JK 13,950 11,700 11,200 12,375 11,575 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
TLKM.JK 3,940 3,870 3,730 3,940 3,800 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TOTL.JK 650 625 615 640 625 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TOWR.JK 865 825 760 865 830 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TPIA.JK 5,700 5,350 5,400 5,675 5,425 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
ULTJ.JK 1,270 1,215 1,200 1,220 1,215 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
UN TR.JK 26,775 26,000 24,250 26,375 25,500 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Under Under
UN V R.JK 50,050 50,025 47,925 50,125 48,600 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
WEGE.JK 342 308 292 334 320 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
WIKA.JK 1,945 1,730 1,635 1,760 1,690 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
WOOD.JK 735 750 695 785 715 Neutral Bullish Overbought Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
WSBP.JK 420 386 368 392 380 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
WSKT.JK 2,040 1,855 1,745 1,890 1,790 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
Source : Reliance Research
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