Market Review
IHSG (-0.48%) ditutup melemah 30.93 poin kelevel 6389.08 seiring aksi jual investor
asing yang terus terasa seakan mengkoreksi trend aksi beli sejak awal tahun 2019.
Investor asing tercatat net sell 286.75 miliar rupiah dengan pelemahan nilai tukar rupiah
sebesar 0.45% kelevel Rp14154 per USD menjadi alasan. Sektor Konsumer (-0.93%) dan
Industri Dasar (-1.12%) menjadi kontributor utama pelemahan IHSG diakhir pekan ini.
Sentimen negatif dari penurunan aktifitas Ekspor yang diluar dugaan sebesar -4.7%
berbanding YoY dari periode sebelumnya sebesar -3.57% menjadi pemicu. Posisi Neraca
perdagangan Indonesia pun melebar dengan defisit $1.16 miliar berbanding defisit
periode sebelumnya sebesar $1.03 miliar atau bertambah sekitar $130 juta pada bulan
Januari 2019. Penurunan eksport terbesar pada sektor minyak dan gas yang turun 6.72%
karena adanya pebatasan import minyak dan gas ke Tiongkok sejak akhir tahun lalu.
Sentimen ini masih akan menjadi awan hitam pergerakan IHSG hingga pekan depan.
Leader:
TLKM, BNLI, EXCL, CPIN, BRPT
Laggard:
HMSP, UNVR, BBRI, INKP, BBCA
Pergerkaan IHSG secara teknikal mengarah pada pergerakan bearish setelah tidak mampu
bertahan diarea level 6400. Indikator Stochastic mengarah bearish dengan pergerakan
terkonsolidasi pada area oversold begitu juga RSI yang telah menjenuh namun tidak
berindikasi rebound secara momentum. Sehingga diperkirakan IHSG akan cenderung
bergerak kembali tertekan mendekati level support MA50 dikisaran level 6300 jika tidak
mampu berbalik kembali diatas level 6400. Sehingga diperkirakan support resistance
IHSG berada dikisaran level 6300-6429. Saham-saham yang masih dapat dicermati
diantaranya CPIN, GGRM, KLBF, BBNI, BMRI, TLKM, ASII, MEDC, ERAA.
Indeks Nikkei (+1.54%) dan TOPIX (+1.36%) dibuka menguat lebih dari sepersen diawal sesi perdagangan awal pekan. Indeks KOSPI (+0.72%) dikorea selatan pun dibuka gap up menyusul indikasi positif pada mayoritas indeks saham di Asia pada awal pekan ini. Kenaikan ini setelah kuatnya perdagangan di AS mengakhiri pekan lalu ditengah tanda-tanda optimis tentang ekonomi dan kesepkatan perdagangan AS-China menjelang pembicaraan di Washington minggu ini. Trump penyatakan kesepakatan dengan China lebih dekat dan berkemungkinan tanggal pengenaan tarif import akan diperpanjang. Diawal pekan data dari dalam negeri mengenai pertumbuhan pinjaman akan menyita perhatian investor. Harga minyak mentah WTI (+0.5%) dibuka menguat kelevel $55.88 perbarrel mencapai level tertinggi sejak 3 bulan terakhir. sedangkan energy tambang batubara NC (-0.11%) kembali tertekan kelevel $94.85. Tambang logam lain menguat seperti Timah (+0.99%), Nikel (+1.78%) dan Emas (+0.06%) diawal pekan ini.
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan
Analisis
:
•
Candlestick
membentuk
pola
bullish
harami
dengan whipsaw
MA50. Indikasi menguji resistance.
•
Stop-loss
jika
harga
saham
terkonfirmasi
break
out
bullish
trend line.
•
Indikator stochastic bergerak pada
area
pada
pola
golden-cross
dengan RSI yang bullish reversal
momentum.
•
Support
: 6700-7300
•
Resistance
: 8000-8800
•
Stop-loss
: 7175
•
Target Price
: 8000-8800
SPECULATIVE BUY
CPIN
Analisis
:
•
Pola southern star dengan indikasi
rebound pada level support MA50.
•
Stop-loss jika harga saham break
out support MA50
•
Indikator
Stochastic
berpotensi
membentuk
pola
golden-cross
dengan indicator RSI yang bullish
reversal momentum.
•
Support
: 25125-25900
•
Resistance
: 26850-28250
•
Stop-loss
: 26400
Analisis
:
•
Pergerakan
harga
saham
terkonsolidasi
dan
kuat
diatas
MA200. Indikasi rebound menguji
resistance hingga target wave 5.
•
Stop-loss
jika
harga
saham
terkonfirmasi break out support
MA200
•
Indikator
stochastic
bergerak
positif setalah golden-cross pada
area oversold dengan momentum
RSI yang cukup rendah.
•
Support
: 855-910
•
Resistance
: 980-1075
•
Stop-loss
: 920
•
Target Price
: 1075-1170
SPECULATIVE BUY
MEDC
Analisis
:
•
Candlestick
membentuk
pola
bullish
harami
dengan
indikasi
rebound menguji resistance hingga
MA200
•
Stop-loss
jika
harga
saham
terkonfirmasi break out support
•
Indikator Stochastic bergerak pada
area oversold dengan indikasi pola
golden-cross dan RSI yang mulai
terlihat
bullish
reversal
momentum.
•
Support
: 1600-1870
LS-27 Index
Legend :
B: BUY (allocate till 100% of the weighted capital to accumulate, higher than 50% upside probability)
SB: SPECULATIVE BUY (allocate 25%-50% of the weighted capital to accumulate, 25%-50% upside probability)
W: WAIT (wait for proper entry level, do the stop-loss if necessary)
H: HOLD (hold the portfolio position, aim for the best price to distribute)
PS: PARTIAL SELL (distribute 25%-50% part of the portfolio, 25%-50% downside probability)
S: SELL (distribute till 100% of the portfolio, higher than 50% downside probability)
TB: TRADING BUY (short term or intraday trading within a tight trading range. Highly speculative).
Analyst Conclusions:
The Index has reached the wave 3.
Support
Support
Resist ance
Resist ance
2
1
1
2
Agricult ure
TBLA
750
810
860
870
950
Consolidations
TB
840
950
AALI
12,750
13,575
13,600
14,350
15,000
Whipsaw MA20
SB
13,500
14,350
SSMS
1,050
1,115
1,145
1,180
2,250
Consolidations
W
1,100
Basic Indust ry
TKIM
9,325
10,900
11,200
12,350
14,150
Break out MA50
W
11,000
INKP
9,800
10,700
11,500
11,700
13,000
Break out support
W
10,600
CPIN
6,700
7,200
7,475
8,000
8,850
Bullish harami
SB
7,200
8,000
Consumer
GGRM
77,000
80,700
83,875
84,500
88,000
Rectangle
H
83,500
84,500
HOKI
580
620
660
675
720
Break out support
W
640
ICBP
9,800
10,450
10,425
11,400
12,300
Consolidations
TB
10,400
11,400
UNVR
45,500
47,100
48,000
49,000
51,400
Bearish momentum
PS
47,500
Finance
BBRI
3,550
3,750
3,770
3,940
4,100
Consolidations
PS
3,800
BBNI
8,200
8,650
8,775
9,100
9,525
Tweezers bottom
SB
8,600
9,525
BBCA
25,800
26,800
26,800
28,275
29,750
Southern star
TB
26,500
Infrast ruct ure
TOWR
750
770
835
850
910
Bearish harami
PS
840
PGAS
2,250
2,410
2,460
2,600
2,720
Consolidations
TB
2,400
2,600
Misc. Indust ry
SRIL
300
322
338
340
350
Stoch golden-cross
SB
330
350
ASII
7,200
7,500
7,600
7,800
8,100
Bullih homing pigeon
TB
7,500
8,000
Mining
PTBA
3,630
3,870
3,980
4,170
4,480
Bearish momentum
W
3,950
ITMG
19,350
20,500
20,800
22,000
23,000
Oversold
W
20,400
ADRO
1,130
1,215
1,220
1,310
1,400
Arrived at support
TB
1,210
1,310
Propert y
LPCK
2,300
2,400
2,560
2,650
2,880
Bearish momentum
S
2,500
WSKT
1,515
1,680
1,765
1,850
2,070
Oversold
W
1,670
PWON
595
625
645
660
700
Whipsaw MA50
TB
620
700
Trading
UNTR
24,000
25,425
25,025
27,000
28,500
Consolidations
TB
25,400
27,000
SCMA
1,600
1,700
1,755
1,800
1,900
Bullish harami
TB
1,710
1,900
LPPF
5,325
6,000
6,150
7,000
8,000
Bullish harami
SB
6,100
7,000
ERAA
1,600
1,875
1,955
2,100
2,400
Bullish harami
TB
1,850
2,100
Equity Technical Analyst: Lanjar Nafi, lanjar@reliancesekuritas.com
Disclaimer on
St op-loss
Target
Price
Monday, 18 February 2019
Equity Technical Indicator
Re sistance P rice Sup p o rt We e kly We e kly
Fractal 15/02/2019 Fractal Hig h Lo w RSI B. Band 20 Days 50 Days 200 Days
Equity Technical Indicator
Re sistance P rice Sup p o rt We e kly We e kly
Fractal 15/02/2019 Fractal Hig h Lo w RSI B. Band 20 Days 50 Days 200 Days
PN BN .JK 1,450 1,520 1,315 1,550 1,365 Neutral Bullish Overbought Upper Bands Upper Upper Upper
PTBA.JK 4,470 3,980 4,220 4,310 4,080 Oversold Bearish Oversold Lower Bands Under Under Under
PTPP.JK 2,370 2,000 2,210 2,310 2,070 Oversold Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Upper
PWON .JK 650 645 630 675 650 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
RALS.JK 1,855 1,805 1,615 1,855 1,740 Neutral Bullish Overbought Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
ROTI.JK 1,240 1,200 1,195 1,235 1,210 Oversold Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
SCMA.JK 1,855 1,755 1,790 1,840 1,760 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SGRO.JK 2,420 2,340 2,210 2,340 2,340 Overbought Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Under Under
SIDO.jk 840 800 805 835 815 Neutral Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Upper
SILO.JK 4,150 3,600 3,160 4,150 3,800 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Under
SIMP.JK 530 486 490 520 498 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SMBR.JK 1,680 1,525 1,500 1,620 1,550 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SMCB.JK 1,995 2,020 1,980 2,040 2,000 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
SMGR.JK 12,775 12,025 12,200 12,775 12,300 Neutral Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Upper
SMRA.JK 990 865 950 990 910 Oversold Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Upper
SRIL.JK 350 338 336 344 340 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SSMS.JK 1,200 1,145 1,165 1,190 1,165 Oversold Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Under
TBIG.JK 4,830 4,620 4,610 4,750 4,600 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
TBLA.JK 990 860 845 960 880 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
TIN S.JK 1,430 1,425 1,270 1,475 1,340 Neutral Bullish Overbought Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TKIM.JK 13,950 11,200 13,000 13,075 11,950 Oversold Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Under
TLKM.JK 3,940 3,790 3,780 3,940 3,800 Oversold Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
TOTL.JK 650 625 600 645 635 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TOWR.JK 860 835 760 865 820 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TPIA.JK 5,700 5,550 5,400 5,700 5,550 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
ULTJ.JK 1,270 1,210 1,200 1,220 1,220 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
UN TR.JK 26,775 25,025 24,250 25,825 25,500 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
UN V R.JK 50,050 48,000 48,875 49,800 48,600 Oversold Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
WEGE.JK 342 308 292 334 320 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
WIKA.JK 1,945 1,645 1,835 1,865 1,720 Oversold Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Upper
WOOD.JK 735 700 580 735 720 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
WSBP.JK 420 368 384 414 384 Oversold Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Upper
WSKT.JK 2,040 1,765 1,830 2,030 1,865 Oversold Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Under
Source : Reliance Research
T icke r Ind icato r Mo ving Ave rag e
