Market Review
IHSG (+1.70%) ditutup menguat 108.73 poin kelevel 6497.82 dengan Investor asing yang kembali tercatat net sell sebesar 147.03 miliar rupiah meskipun rupiah bergerak cenderung menguat 0.33% kelevel Rp14.107 per USD. Indeks industri dasar (+2.93%) dan Infrastruktur (+2.46%) menjadi pemimpin penguatan. Sedangkan saham-saham yang menjadi kontributor penguatan IHSG diantaran BBCA (+2.24%) dan HMSP (+2.97%). Saham-saham perbankkan menjadi pemimpin ditengah optimisme pertumbuhan kredit yang kembali diatas 12%. Meskipun secara fundamental BBCA mempunyai PBV cukup tinggi dari perusahaan sejenis dengan PBV 4.70x dengan rata-rata PBV perusahaan sejenis sebesar 2.88x.
Leader:
BBCA, HMSP, ASII, TLKM, UNVR Laggard:
JPFA, TPIA, BNLI, RODA, LPPF
IHSG secara teknikal bergerak melompat dengan pola bullish separating line dengan kembali kuat diatas level 6400. IHSG mampu break out MA20 dan indikator stochastic golden-cross pada momentum bullish reversal indikator RSI memberikan harapan penguatan lanjutan dengan support resistance 6474-6570. Saham-saham yang masih dapat dicermati diantaranya TBLA, LSIP, AALI, INKP, TKIM, WSBP, ICBP, BBCA, BBTN, ASII, MEDC, INCO, ERAA
Indeks Nikkei (+0.01%) dan TOPIX (+0.13%) dibuka mixed. Seakan mayoritas indeks membuka signal pelemahan dengan mulai masuknya pada wilayah overbought. Perdagangan terus mendominasi pasar global ketika AS dan China berlomba untuk mencapai kesepakatan yang akan mencegah kenaikan tarif barang-barang Cina pada 1 Maret dan spekulasi mengenai batas waktu yang diperpanjang oleh Trump. Sentimen dari tensi perdagangan kembali mencuat kali ini dengan Eropa dimana Trump menerima temuan penyelidikan apakah kendaraan impor menimbulkan ancaman keamanan nasional, kemungkinan tarif otomatis telah dihidupkan kembali. Trump memiliki 90 hari setelah secara resmi menerima laporan untuk memutuskan apakah akan bertindak. Harga minyak WTI (+0.56%) kembali menguat ditutup pada level $55.90 perbarrel.
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan
Analisis
:
• Candlestick membentuk pola bullish harami dengan indikasi rebound menguji MA50, MA200
dan MA20 sebagai target
resistance
• Stop-loss jika harga saham terkonfirmasi break out support • Indikator stochastic bergerak pada
area oversold dengan potensi golden-cross. RSI bullish reversal momentum.
• Support : 9350-11000
• Resistance : 12400-14100
• Stop-loss : 10800
• Target Price : 12700-12850
SPECULATIVE BUY
TKIM
Analisis
:
• Above the stomach candlestick
pattern dengan indikasi
melanjutkan penguatan menguji resistance MA200 dan MA50
• Stop-loss jika harga saham break out support
• Indikator Stochastic berpotensi membentuk pola golden-cross dengan indicator RSI yang bullish reversal momentum.
• Support : 2430-2530
• Resistance : 2680-2820
• Stop-loss : 2500
• Target Price : 2670
SPECULATIVE BUY
Analisis
:
• Pergerakan harga saham whipsaw pada level MA200 dengan indikasi menguat menguji upper Bollinger bands.
• Stop-loss jika harga saham terkonfirmasi break out support MA200
• Indikator stochastic bergerak positif setelah golden-cross pada area oversold dengan momentum RSI yang cukup rendah.
• Support : 3200-3520
• Resistance : 3890-4220
• Stop-loss : 3490
• Target Price : 4000
SPECULATIVE BUY
INCO
Analisis
:
• Pergerakan harga saham rebound pada support MA200 dengan potensi menguji FR61,8% yang bertepatan dengan bearish trend line.
• Stop-loss jika harga saham terkonfirmasi break out support MA200
• Indikator Stochastic bergerak pada area oversold dengan indikasi pola golden-cross dan RSI yang mulai terlihat bullish reversal momentum.
• Support : 1800-1980
• Resistance : 2270-2460
•
SPECULATIVE BUY
LS-27 Index
Legend :
B: BUY (allocate till 100% of the weighted capital to accumulate, higher than 50% upside probability) SB: SPECULATIVE BUY (allocate 25%-50% of the weighted capital to accumulate, 25%-50% upside probability) W: WAIT (wait for proper entry level, do the stop-loss if necessary)
H: HOLD (hold the portfolio position, aim for the best price to distribute)
PS: PARTIAL SELL (distribute 25%-50% part of the portfolio, 25%-50% downside probability) S: SELL (distribute till 100% of the portfolio, higher than 50% downside probability)
TB: TRADING BUY (short term or intraday trading within a tight trading range. Highly speculative).
Analyst Conclusions:
The Index has reached the wave 3.
Support Support Resist ance Resist ance
2 1 1 2
Agricult ure
TBLA 750 810 880 885 955 Bullish separating line SB 850 955 AALI 12,750 13,575 13,750 14,350 15,000 Break out resistance SB 13,500 14,350 SSMS 1,050 1,115 1,150 1,180 2,250 Consolidations W 1,100
Basic Indust ry
TKIM 9,325 10,900 11,425 12,350 14,150 Bullish harami SB 11,000 12,700 INKP 10,700 11,700 11,875 13,000 14,440 Bullish harami SB 10,600
CPIN 6,700 7,200 7,600 8,000 8,850 Whipsaw MA50 SB 7,500 8,000 Consumer
GGRM 80,700 84,500 85,000 88,000 92,000 Break out upper bound H 84,400 88,000 HOKI 580 620 665 675 720 Tweezers bottom TB 640 720 ICBP 9,800 10,450 10,550 11,400 12,300 Consolidations TB 10,400 11,400 UNVR 47,100 49,000 49,425 51,400 53,000 Consolidations H 48,800 51,400 Finance
BBRI 3,550 3,750 3,840 3,940 4,100 Rebounded at Ma50 TB 3,800 3,940 BBNI 8,200 8,650 8,975 9,100 9,525 Stoch golden-cross B 8,900 9,525 BBCA 25,800 26,800 27,400 28,275 29,750 Bullish kicker signal B 27,000 28,275 Infrast ruct ure
TOWR 750 770 840 850 910 Consolidations PS 840
PGAS 2,250 2,410 2,510 2,600 2,720 Consolidations TB 2,480 2,600 Misc. Indust ry
SRIL 300 322 338 340 350 Stoch golden-cross SB 330 350 ASII 7,500 7,800 7,875 8,100 8,500 Bullish kicker signal B 7,700 8,100 Mining
PTBA 3,630 3,870 3,980 4,170 4,480 Bullish homing pigeon SB 3,950 4,170 ITMG 19,350 20,500 21,100 22,000 23,000 Stoch golden-cross SB 20,800 22,000 ADRO 1,130 1,215 1,245 1,310 1,400 Stoch golden-cross TB 1,210 1,310 Propert y
LPCK 2,300 2,400 2,600 2,650 2,880 Consolidations W 2,500 WSKT 1,515 1,680 1,750 1,850 2,070 Oversold W 1,670
PWON 595 625 660 660 700 Whipsaw MA50 TB 620 700 Trading
UNTR 24,000 25,425 26,150 27,000 28,500 Whipsaw at support SB 25,400 27,000 SCMA 1,600 1,700 1,760 1,800 1,900 Break out MA5 TB 1,710 1,900 LPPF 4,890 5,325 5,925 6,000 7,000 Break out support W 5,300
ERAA 1,600 1,875 2,040 2,100 2,400 Bullish kicker signal SB 2,000 2,210
Equity Technical Analyst: Lanjar Nafi, lanjar@reliancesekuritas.com
Disclaimer on
St op-loss Target Price
Tuesday, 19 February 2019
Equity Technical Indicator
Re sistance P rice Sup p o rt We e kly We e kly
Fractal 18/02/2019 Fractal Hig h Lo w RSI B. Band 20 Days 50 Days 200 Days
Equity Technical Indicator
Re sistance P rice Sup p o rt We e kly We e kly
Fractal 18/02/2019 Fractal Hig h Lo w RSI B. Band 20 Days 50 Days 200 Days
PN BN .JK 1,450 1,565 1,315 1,580 1,385 Overbought Bullish Overbought Upper Bands Upper Upper Upper
PTBA.JK 4,470 3,980 4,220 4,310 4,040 Oversold Bearish Oversold Lower Bands Under Under Under
PTPP.JK 2,370 2,060 2,210 2,270 2,070 Oversold Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
PWON .JK 650 660 630 660 650 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
RALS.JK 1,855 1,805 1,615 1,855 1,815 Neutral Bearish Overbought Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
ROTI.JK 1,240 1,200 1,195 1,230 1,210 Oversold Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
SCMA.JK 1,855 1,760 1,790 1,840 1,760 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SGRO.JK 2,420 2,300 2,210 2,350 2,340 Overbought Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SIDO.jk 840 830 805 835 815 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
SILO.JK 4,150 3,530 3,160 4,150 3,680 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Under
SIMP.JK 530 496 490 510 498 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Under
SMBR.JK 1,680 1,510 1,500 1,590 1,520 Oversold Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SMCB.JK 2,040 2,010 1,980 2,040 2,020 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
SMGR.JK 12,775 12,500 12,200 12,775 12,300 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
SMRA.JK 990 880 950 965 895 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
SRIL.JK 350 338 328 344 340 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SSMS.JK 1,200 1,150 1,165 1,190 1,165 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
TBIG.JK 4,830 4,540 4,610 4,720 4,600 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
TBLA.JK 990 880 845 930 880 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
TIN S.JK 1,430 1,520 1,270 1,615 1,340 Neutral Bullish Overbought Upper Bands Upper Upper Upper
TKIM.JK 13,950 11,425 13,000 12,850 11,575 Oversold Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
TLKM.JK 3,940 3,900 3,780 3,920 3,800 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TOTL.JK 650 620 600 640 630 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TOWR.JK 860 840 760 865 820 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TPIA.JK 5,700 5,475 5,400 5,700 5,550 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
ULTJ.JK 1,270 1,210 1,200 1,220 1,215 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
UN TR.JK 26,775 26,150 24,250 26,225 25,500 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Under Under
UN V R.JK 50,050 49,425 48,875 49,700 48,600 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
WEGE.JK 342 308 292 334 320 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
WIKA.JK 1,945 1,645 1,835 1,830 1,700 Oversold Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
WOOD.JK 735 715 580 730 715 Neutral Bearish Overbought Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
WSBP.JK 420 372 384 404 384 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
WSKT.JK 2,040 1,750 1,830 1,975 1,800 Oversold Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Under
Source : Reliance Research
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