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Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies
ISSN: 0007-4918 (Print) 1472-7234 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/cbie20
RECENT TECHNICAL PAPERS ON BPS DATA
Yahya Jammal
To cite this article: Yahya Jammal (2003) RECENT TECHNICAL PAPERS ON BPS DATA, Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 39:2, 215-220, DOI: 10.1080/00074910302015
To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00074910302015
Published online: 17 Jun 2010.
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ISSN 0007-4918 print/ISSN 1472-7234 online/03/020215-6 © 2003 Indonesia Project ANU
RECENT TECHNICAL PAPERS ON BPS DATA
Yahya Jammal
Boston Institute for Developing Economies
This note discusses a series of papers produced by the USAID-funded STAT project at the Indonesian Statistics Agency (BPS). The project’s goal was to help BPS design new activities based on improved statistical techniques, so as to enhance the agency’s provision of accurate and timely data, and to increase its openness and transparency through documentation of sources and methods, and soliciting of user feedback. The papers described here document the methodology of certain statistical series, and explore data-related questions. They are aimed mainly at users outside BPS, and cover series on the national accounts, industry, the labour force and agriculture.
At the same time, the great advances in computer technology and the increas-ing sophistication of users by the 1990s has increased the quality and compe-tence of user analysis. By 2000, private and public criticisms were being voiced against some BPS data that were per-ceived to be insufficiently reliable (the consumer price index, the national ac-counts, and the poverty measures, for instance). BPS’s inability or reluctance to address these issues adequately en-couraged accusations of political moti-vation behind certain data, resulting in some changes in BPS leadership in the middle of 2000.
This was the environment in which the USAID-funded STAT (Statistical Assistance to the Government of Indo-nesia) Project began. The project aimed at assisting BPS to design new activities based upon improved statistical tech-niques, in order better to meet user de-mand for more accurate and timely data. A major thrust was to help BPS project an image of openness of operations and transparency of computations, by doc-umenting sources and methods and so-Indonesia’s national statistics agency
(Statistics Indonesia, BPS) is unique among developing countries in nurtur-ing statistical skills at an early age through its statistical academy, with its highly selective admissions policy for high school students. Since the 1960s, it has established a solid reputation for the high calibre of its technical and opera-tional capabilities. By the 1980s few de-veloping countries, if any, could match BPS’s record in terms of the number of regular censuses (population, economic, agriculture, industry), large-scale sur-veys and complex statistical products such as input–output tables and social accounting matrices. And this for one of the world’s most populous and diverse countries. Unfortunately, BPS has fallen victim to significant budget tightening since the 1997–98 economic crisis. Aver-age annual growth in nominal expendi-ture on regular activities between 1997 and 2002 was about one-third that of the 1993–97 period, pulling corresponding real expenditures in 2002 back to levels similar to those of 1993. Such cuts cannot but adversely affect product quality.
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liciting user feedback through various channels.
In partnership with BPS, the project has produced several statistical papers aimed primarily at users outside BPS.1
Some simply document in detail the methodology of statistical series of in-terest. Others explore data-related issues to stimulate discussion on them.2
This note provides a brief description of the topics covered by these papers, since I believe they will be of interest to many BIES readers. The papers deal with four major areas: national accounts, industry, the labour force and agricul-ture.
National Accounts
‘Revision of Quarterly Production Accounts’, by Yahya Jammal, October 2000.
This paper reviews the impact of revi-sions of quarterly production accounts, to examine the claim that such figures were being ‘cooked’ because quarterly revisions tended to be minor. One find-ing was that revisions had not been insignificant. Another finding was that quarterly revisions in some sectors suggest a systematic under- or over-estimation in the preliminary figures. The paper then proposes a number of steps that BPS can take to raise confi-dence in published figures, by increas-ing the transparency of its revision policy and improving the estimation methodology used.
Quarterly National Accounts in Indo-nesia, Current Sources and Methods (draft), by Yahya Jammal, February 2001. This paper represents the first attempt (known to the author at least) to docu-ment the sources and methods used by BPS to compute Indonesia’s national accounts. Its preparation followed years of complaints by outside users that these computations lacked transparency. Doc-umentation was believed to be the most effective way of communicating to
us-ers how figures had been computed over time and the myriad sources and steps that need to be followed to ensure regu-lar and timely production of these figures. The published nine-sector pro-duction accounts were based on estima-tions of 58 subsectors which, in turn, were the outcome of estimations involv-ing about 200 commodities and commodity groups. The expenditure ac-count takes the GDP computed from the production account as the benchmark and then attempts to reconcile estima-tions of its six major components with that benchmark.
‘Chain Linking National Accounts’, by Yahya Jammal, June 2001. This paper was prompted by an apparent decision by BPS to adopt the chaining methodology recommended by the 1993 System of National Accounts. It discusses the se-rious conceptual and practical issues involved in the chain linking of nation-al accounts, urges caution in consider-ing its adoption, and finally discusses which methodology to adopt, which in-dexing procedure to use, what data to publish, in what format and at what lev-el of detail.
‘Unit Value Indexes for Exports and Im-ports’, by Frank de Leeuw, July 2001. This paper was prompted by the discovery of substantial weaknesses in the foreign trade deflators that had been used by BPS. A new methodology for comput-ing unit value indices for deflatcomput-ing exports and imports of goods is docu-mented. The methodology is designed to resolve two problems that can be se-vere when using unit values: hetero-geneity and inaccuracy. It follows four steps: (1) collecting customs reports on value and weight for thousands of indi-vidual products; (2) measuring the ra-tio of the unit value in the current month to that in the previous month wherever data are available; (3) counting the num-ber of unit value ratio observations in
each industry (specifically, 2-digit industries of the harmonised system) and discarding industries with very few observations; and (4) constructing price change series for included industries, using the median unit value change of the products in each industry. The re-sults were plausible and the methodol-ogy and results for 2000–01 have been documented in BPS (2002). More recent figures have been made available to a limited number of users, and prepara-tions are currently being made for reg-ular monthly publication for use by the wider public.
‘Measuring Changes in Inventories in Indonesia’, by Frank de Leeuw, September 2001. This paper recommends direct estimation of inventory changes in the national accounts, instead of their deri-vation as the residual difference be-tween total production and final sales, as has been the case to date. One advan-tage of this approach is that the inven-tory change estimates themselves would improve. When they are residuals, they reflect not only actual inventory change, but also errors in measuring production and final sales. Improved estimates based on direct measurement should allow a better understanding of the mag-nitude and the timing of inventory change in economic fluctuations. Per-haps even more important is the poten-tial advantage of improving estimates of private consumption, the largest com-ponent of final expenditures. A meth-odology is then proposed for deriving estimates, including (1) data on inven-tories in physical units (kilograms, bar-rels) for selected commodities; and (2) data on the value of inventories on the balance sheets of enterprises. BPS is cur-rently computing these figures for pos-sible future publication.
‘Toward Income Accounts for Indonesia’, by Kusmadi Saleh and Yahya Jammal, Sep-tember 2002. This report documents an
attempt to develop income accounts for Indonesia for 1990–2000 which, it is hoped, can be updated regularly by BPS in the future. The findings included the following. First, the combined contribu-tion of consumpcontribu-tion of fixed capital and net indirect taxes has remained more or less the same over time, at about 13–15%. Second, the share of employee compen-sation has also remained more or less the same over the period (at around 32–35%); the only exception was 1998, which showed a decline of over eight percentage points that was quickly re-stored to the historical norm in the fol-lowing years. Third, the behaviour of property income was different: its share was roughly the same as that of employ-ee compensation in 1990; it declined slightly through 1995, then rose sharply in 1996 and 1997, only to decline gradu-ally again to the same level as the share of employee compensation in 2000.
Industry
‘The Monthly Manufacturing Production Survey’, by Yahya Jammal and Rosniaty Ismail, November 2000. This paper doc-uments the new quarterly manufactur-ing production system designed by BPS in compliance with the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standards. The sys-tem contains a monthly subsyssys-tem de-signed to provide a prompt indicator (i.e. available with a 6-week lag) at the 1-digit ISIC (International Standard In-dustrial Classification) level, and a slow-er quartslow-erly indicator at the 3- and 2-digit ISIC level. The system has been operational since 2000, and its results are regularly published by BPS on its web-site and in Indikator Ekonomi. The report argues that such a system, which em-phasises timeliness, could be used as a model for future BPS small sample establishment surveys; these could be run directly from the BPS head office, rather than having to rely on the present
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slower and less flexible process involv-ing multi-level regional offices. The suc-cess of the monthly survey operation has prompted BPS to consider turning the remaining quarterly subsystem into a monthly survey as well, to provide us-ers with more disaggregated data more frequently and more promptly.
‘Monthly Manufacturing Production and Employment Indices’, by Yahya Jam-mal and Vijay Verma, April 2001. This paper introduces two major additions to the existing monthly/quarterly manu-facturing production survey. First, it evaluates employment data in that sur-vey and finds them highly plausible. Since then, BPS has been regularly pro-ducing both monthly production and monthly employment indices (although only the production indices are regular-ly published), and has documented the historical 1993–2000 series in a separate publication (BPS 2001a).
A second addition was the introduc-tion of benchmarking methodology to ensure consistency between the month-ly/quarterly manufacturing production surveys and the more complete annual survey. As a survey of a fixed panel of establishments, the monthly/quarterly system misses the contribution of new establishments created since the sample was selected. In a highly dynamic sec-tor such as manufacturing, this can re-sult in substantial understatement of the true growth of the population of estab-lishments. The benchmarked 1993–2000 monthly historical series was published separately (BPS 2001b).
‘Classifying Manufacturing Production by Commodity vs by Establishment: Evi-dence Using 1998 Annual Survey Data’, by Yahya Jammal and Rifa Rufiadi, August 2001. This paper reports on a major change introduced by BPS to its annual manufacturing surveys since 1998: cod-ing of individual commodities used and produced by establishments. This
pro-vides users with an invaluable set of tools to analyse both establishment-level and sectoral production and cost structures. Users interested in analysing structural changes in manufacturing, for example, can now obtain on an annual basis subsets of non-oil manu-facturing ‘make’ tables (providing a cross-classification of output by indus-try and commodity) and intermediate input–output tables. In the past, users had to wait for the full input–output ta-ble to be produced by BPS once every five years.
‘An Expanded Industrial Production In-dex for Indonesia’, by Frank de Leeuw, Feb-ruary 2002. This paper documents a methodology that allows computation of a production index covering the whole industrial sector, and not only non-oil manufacturing in medium and large establishments as has been the case in the past. By integrating the results of the manufacturing production survey with monthly data on oil, gas, other min-erals and electricity, the new index would provide a more complete indica-tor of non-farm goods activity than does the presently published index. BPS is currently computing this index, and the results have not yet been published.
Labour Force
‘Employment Data in Indonesia: A Review of Existing Sources’, by Hananto Sigit, July 2000. This paper reviews and docu-ments existing sources of employment data. Six groups of sources are reviewed (household surveys, establishment sur-veys, agriculture census, community data surveys, ad hoc surveys and administrative records), and their strengths and weaknesses briefly eval-uated.
‘Earnings Data in Indonesia: A Review of Existing Sources’, by Hananto Sigit, August 2000. This paper reviews and documents existing sources of earnings
data. After defining the meaning of ‘earnings’ in the Indonesian context, the author reviews three groups of sources (household surveys, establishment sur-veys and the agricultural census), giv-ing a brief evaluation of their strengths and weaknesses.
‘Selected Issues in Labor Force Statistics’, by Vijay Verma, March 2001. This paper evaluates the current methodology used by BPS for measuring employment and unemployment, in response to doubts cast on whether computations con-formed with international standards. While the measurement of employment was found to conform with the standard international definition (recommended by the ILO), the measurement of un-employment was not. The report further suggests that some empirical investiga-tion be conducted to measure the impli-cations of adopting a relaxed ILO definition of ‘unemployed’, which takes into consideration the impact of ‘dis-couraged workers’. The author then out-lines the main elements of a quarterly labour force survey, currently being im-plemented by BPS for 2002, which al-lows production of quarterly national estimates and consistent annual provin-cial estimates.
‘Measuring Open Unemployment in Sa-kernas’, by Uzair Suhaimi and Yahya Jam-mal, June 2001. This paper attempts to measure empirically the impact of ap-plying the ‘relaxed’ definition of ‘unem-ployed’ to Sakernas (National Labour Force Survey) data from 1996 through 2000. Results showed that ‘discouraged workers’ represented a significant phe-nomenon in Indonesia, particularly af-ter the 1997–98 crisis. Using the relaxed definition would raise the unemploy-ment rate in 1999 and 2000, for exam-ple, from 6.4% and 6.1% respectively to 8.8% and 8.2%. Treating these workers as part of the unemployed in the civil-ian labour force makes a substantial
dif-ference not only nationally, but by gen-der, urban/rural location and province as well.
Agriculture
‘Agriculture Census and Surveys’, by Vi-jay Verma, March 2001. This paper eval-uates the current methodology used by BPS for estimating rice production, namely by relying on the crop-cutting approach, which includes two compo-nents: an eye estimate of area harvested (collected by Department of Agriculture extension agents) and estimates of yield per hectare (collected by BPS and Department of Agriculture extension agents). The paper suggests that the methodology has substantial short-comings. A supplemental methodology, relying on regular household surveys, is then proposed.
‘Aggregate Rice Data in Indonesia: A Brief Overview’, by Suwandhi Sastrotaruno and Choiril Maksum, February 2002. This paper documents how aggregate rice consumption and production in Indo-nesia have been computed in past de-cades. A discussion of various elements of the methodology suggests that the estimates for both production and con-sumption are subject to some margin of error; the error in the consumption esti-mate is likely to be small and that in the production estimate much larger. Al-though total rice consumption in Indo-nesia may be understated, total rice production is almost certainly overstat-ed, and by a significant margin. The re-port’s very rough calculation suggests that there is a net overstatement of pro-duction of about 17%.
‘Is Susenas Rice Consumption in Urban Areas of Indonesia Understated?’, by Yahya Jammal and Arizal Ahnaf, November 2002.
This paper examines the widely held view that rice consumption figures based on the Susenas (National Socio-Economic Survey) are understated. It
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compares per capita rice consumption from Susenas data in urban areas in 1996 with that from a more complete, elabo-rate and therefore reliable source (the cost of living survey, Survei Biaya Hidup). The conclusion is that per capi-ta rice consumption estimates derived from the Susenas are not understated.
Concluding Remarks
Useful statistics are the product of the interaction between users and produc-ers. It is this interaction that ensures that the right statistics are produced with the best practically achievable level of ac-curacy. Without it, producers will not be able to determine which data to pub-lish, in what format, with what frequen-cy and with what delays. This note is intended to promote such interaction by informing BIES readers, representing an important class of users, about some of the latest technical developments at BPS in four areas. The hope is that BPS will continue this process of informing us-ers in these areas, as well as in other ar-eas of interest.
In return, users have a responsibility to provide feedback to BPS about their statistical interests. By asking probing questions or simply expressing their views on particular data, users can help BPS evaluate the net benefits of produc-ing particular data series. Lack of user
feedback may not necessarily reflect lack of interest, but it has the same negative effect nevertheless.
As stakeholders in the process of data development in Indonesia, BIES readers can play a major role in helping BPS face the decade’s new challenging realities: tighter budgets; increasing demands for timely data; greater flexibility in data design and management; and, perhaps its biggest challenge of all, how to cope with the new uncertain environment of decentralisation, with emboldened local governments imposing their own differ-ing data priorities.
Notes
1 Other reports of the project, produced for internal and/or limited use only, are not reviewed here.
2 These papers are available on the BPS website at www.bps.go.id/papers/ P a p e r s _ a n d _ A n a l y s i s / P a p e r s _ by_BPS_and_USAID_Project.
References
BPS (2001a), Production and Employment In-dices of Large and Medium Manufacturing: 1993–2001, October, Jakarta.
BPS (2001b), Benchmark Production and Em-ployment Indices of Large and Medium Man-ufacturing: 1993–2000, October, Jakarta. BPS (2002), Unit Value Indexes for Exports and
Imports: January 2000 – April 2002, July, Jakarta.
