Resistance Kuat di Level 4,630.71

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Senin, 19 Oktober 2015

Resistance Kuat di Level 4,630.71

Salah satu penyebab menurunnya pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia adalah

melemahnya daya beli masyarakat, sehingga pemerintah mengeluarkan

berbagai kebijakan paket ekonomi sebagai cara untuk mendorong daya beli

masyarakat. Paket kebijakan ekonomi jilid 4 yang dikeluarkan pada hari kamis

di pekan kemarin mengenai formulasi kenaikan upah minimum provinsi (UMP)

dengan menggunakan indikator inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional

yang rencananya akan diumumkan tiap tahun di bulan November. Tujuan

utama kebijakan ini adalah untuk memberi kepastian kenaikan upah tiap tahun

bagi pekerja dan kepastian dunia usaha akan beban upah di masa mendatang

sehingga diharapkan akan tercipta iklim investasi serta dunia usaha yang

kondusif. Perkiraan Bank Indonesia (BI) akan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia

di Q3 2015 yang sedikit lebih tinggi dari periode sebelumnya dimana ditopang

dari belanja modal pemerintah walaupun masih mempertahankan BI rate di

level 7.5% di tengah risiko ketidakpastian global yang masih tinggi serta masih

dianggap sejalan dengan sasaran inflasi 4% +/- 1% di 2015 dan 2016, ternyata

tidak mampu membuat IHSG untuk bergerak positif dalam sepekan terakhir di

tengah melemahnya nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS. Dan secara

keseluruhan IHSG melemah dalam sepekan terakhir sebesar 1.47% atau 67.46

poin akibat aksi profit taking dari beberapa saham yang menguat tajam di

sepekan sebelumnya dan ditutup di level 4,521.88 dengan diikuti oleh

akumulasi minat jual asing dalam sepekan sebesar Rp.143.18 miliar.

Akumulasi minat jual asing juga tercatatkan dalam empat pekan terakhir

sebesar Rp.543.67 miliar, sedangkan dalam dua pekan dan tiga pekan terakhir

masih tercatatkan akumulasi minat beli asing masing masing sebesar Rp.2.12

triliun dan Rp.1.50 triliun. Dan selama 2015, akumulasi minat jual asing

tercatatkan sebesar Rp.26.12 triliun YTD. Pelemahan IHSG juga diikuti oleh

melemahnya rupiah dalam sepekan terakhir dari Rp.13,521 menjadi Rp.13,534.

Pergerakan IHSG dalam sepekan kedepan masih akan berfluktuatif dalam

rentang level 4,326.75 – 4,682.37 sebagai support dan resistance. Beberapa

saham blue chips yang masih berpeluang menguat sesaat dapat menjadi

penopang IHSG dalam sepekan kedepan. Dan level 4,735.97 masih sebagai

level konfirmasi berakhirnya tren melemah. Beberapa saham yang saat ini

underprice dan mendekati PE ratio terendah diantaranya APLN, ASRI, BJBR,

BMTR, BSDE, CTRP, CTRS, DILD, GGRM, INDF, JSMR, KAEF, KIJA, MNCN,

MPPA, PWON, SILO, dan SMRA. Berita ekonomi global di pekan ini

diantaranya Housing Market Index, Housing Starts,

EIA Petroleum Status

Report,

Jobless Claims,

Existing Home Sales, dan PMI Manufacturing Index

Flash.

Widhi Indratmo Nugroho

Analyst [email protected] +62 21 5785 1818 (Ext.2051) Close Weekly Return ▼ Yield to Date ▼ PE (X) Volume (miliar) ▼ Value (Rp. triliun) ▼ BI Rate IDR/USD Rp. COMPOSITE LAST TOTAL TRANSACTION -1.47% ECONOMIC INDICATORS 13,534 7.50% 17.75 19.51 12.22 -13.49% 4,521.88

Sumber: Lautandhana Securindo

JCI vs Foreign Net Buy (Sell) YTD

3,800 4,300 4,800 5,300 5,800

2-Jan-15 5-Mar-15 7-May-15 9-Jul-15 15-Sep-15 (30,000) (19,200) (8,400) 2,400 13,200

Composite (LHS) Net Buy YTD in Rp.bn (RHS)

SECTOR Agriculture ▲ 3.37% ▲ 0.07% Basic Industry ▼ -0.02% ▲ 12.32% Consumer Goods ▼ -0.94% ▲ 4.44% Finance ▼ -1.87% ▲ 13.22% Infrastructure ▼ -0.47% ▲ 5.62% Manufacture ▼ -1.77% ▲ 10.62% Mining ▼ -1.09% ▲ 5.28% Misc. Industry ▼ -4.92% ▲ 24.31% Property ▼ -2.88% ▲ 9.09%

Trade & Service ▼ -1.20% ▲ 4.83% WEEKLY RETURN

16-Oct-15 9-Oct-15

SECTOR Agriculture ▲ 3.63% ▼ -3.06% Basic Industry ▲ 18.84% ▲ 0.84% Consumer Goods ▼ -0.66% ▲ 1.06% Finance ▼ -5.93% ▲ 10.99% Infrastructure ▼ -4.16% ▲ 3.78% Manufacture ▼ -4.85% ▲ 19.73% Mining ▼ -27.96% ▲ 12.75% Misc. Industry ▼ -3.03% ▲ 5.40% Property ▼ -22.61% ▲ 26.47%

Trade & Service ▲ 8.34% ▲ 15.93% 16-Oct-15 9-Oct-15 WEEKLY CAPITAL FLOW

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PE Band IHSG

7 . 4 x 10 . 5 x 13 . 6 x 16 . 7 x 19 . 8 x -1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

Dec- 03 Feb- 05 Mar - 06 Apr - 07 May-08 Jun-09 Jul-10 Aug- 11 Sep- 12 Oct - 13 Nov- 14 Dec-15

Siklus Pergerakan Harian IHSG

J C I C y c l e Average +1 STDEV - 1 STDEV -1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

Jan- 03 Jun-04 Nov-05 Apr -07 Oct -08 Mar -10 Aug- 11 Jan- 13 Jul- 14 Dec- 15

0.43 0.56 0.69 0.82 0.95 1.08 1.21 1.34 1.47 1.60 1.73

Siklus Pergerakan Harian Beberapa Saham LQ45 & Lainnya

Stock Cycle -1 STDEV Average +1 STDEV Area TP Upside Stock Cycle -1 STDEV Average +1 STDEV Area TP Upside

AALI 0.84 0.87 1.04 1.22 BoW 19,696 3.9% PGAS 0.71 0.92 1.08 1.23 BoW 3,564 16.3%

ADHI 0.76 0.83 1.18 1.52 BoW 2,393 15.3% PTBA 0.72 0.83 1.03 1.23 BoW 7,138 10.7%

ADRO 0.79 0.83 1.04 1.25 BoW 744 16.3% PTPP 0.95 0.85 1.13 1.41 Trading 4,349 21.3%

AKRA 1.14 0.92 1.13 1.34 Trading 6,267 3.6% PWON 0.86 0.87 1.12 1.37 BoW 539 40.8%

ASII 0.89 0.90 1.12 1.34 BoW 6,605 4.8% SCMA 0.97 0.91 1.25 1.60 Trading 3,357 11.0%

ASRI 0.70 0.85 1.15 1.44 BoW 611 63.0% SILO 0.88 1.14 1.25 1.37 BoW 16,671 36.9%

BBCA 0.95 1.00 1.10 1.21 BoW 13,585 6.1% SMGR 0.83 0.96 1.11 1.26 BoW 11,756 13.0%

BBNI 0.87 0.90 1.14 1.38 BoW 5,571 9.2% SMRA 0.79 0.91 1.18 1.45 BoW 1,586 22.0%

BBRI 0.91 0.98 1.11 1.24 BoW 12,190 18.3% SRIL 1.36 -9.21 3.52 16.24 Trading 404 5.1%

BBTN 1.02 0.82 0.97 1.13 Trading 1,279 11.7% SSMS 1.00 1.00 1.12 1.24 Trading 1,862 -0.7%

BMRI 0.85 0.93 1.11 1.30 BoW 10,447 17.1% TBIG 0.81 1.00 1.17 1.34 BoW 7,650 10.5%

BMTR 0.70 0.85 1.14 1.42 BoW 1,540 54.8% TLKM 0.94 0.95 1.05 1.15 BoW 3,195 19.2%

BSDE 0.87 0.73 1.18 1.64 Trading 2,094 29.3% UNTR 0.96 0.84 1.08 1.33 Trading 20,629 9.1%

CPIN 0.82 0.82 1.28 1.73 Trading 2,614 4.6% UNVR 0.97 0.98 1.10 1.23 BoW 36,639 -2.5%

EXCL 0.84 0.83 1.10 1.37 Trading 4,247 31.1% W IKA 0.94 0.95 1.18 1.41 BoW 3,130 5.9%

GGRM 0.86 0.89 1.18 1.48 BoW 56,050 31.0% W SKT 0.95 0.87 1.12 1.37 Trading 1,952 22.4%

ICBP 0.99 0.96 1.10 1.23 Trading 15,048 14.0% W TON 0.87 -11.23 6.80 24.83 Trading 1,076 7.6%

INCO 0.80 0.80 1.02 1.24 BoW 2,493 11.8%

INDF 0.93 0.86 1.11 1.37 Trading 7,569 22.1%

INTP 0.91 0.91 1.12 1.32 BoW 21,026 7.6% CTRA 0.75 0.89 1.15 1.40 BoW 1,085 14.2%

ITMG 0.75 0.78 1.03 1.28 BoW 11,321 11.8% CTRP 0.62 0.82 1.10 1.38 BoW 580 49.4%

JSMR 0.87 0.96 1.14 1.31 BoW 6,970 27.9% CTRS 0.79 0.87 1.16 1.45 BoW 3,893 85.4%

KLBF 0.84 1.00 1.20 1.39 BoW 1,724 19.3% KIJA 0.71 0.84 1.10 1.35 BoW 389 100.5%

LPKR 1.08 0.87 1.03 1.19 Trading 1,223 -2.9% SMCB 0.69 0.85 1.10 1.35 BoW 1,090 2.9%

LPPF 0.97 0.02 1.54 3.07 Trading 19,198 17.8% GIAA 0.64 0.85 1.01 1.16 BoW 531 72.4%

LSIP 0.89 0.82 1.07 1.32 Trading 1,471 4.3% KAEF 0.78 0.90 1.18 1.47 BoW 1,320 54.4%

MNCN 0.72 0.86 1.18 1.50 BoW 2,213 33.3% SMBR 0.88 0.94 1.01 1.08 BoW 300 3.8%

MPPA 0.75 0.90 1.16 1.42 BoW 3,752 52.2% TINS 0.81 0.79 1.01 1.23 Trading 628 -8.4%

OTHERS Bottom Fishing ? Buy on Weakness Trading Area Sell on Strength Closing 16 October 2015

Saat ini IHSG berada pada PE ratio

12.41x.

Krisis Global 2008

Saat ini siklus IHSG berada

dibawah -1 standard

deviation.

Closing 16 October 2015

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Pemilihan Saham

Passive Strategy

AALI ADHIADRO AKRA ASII ASRI BBCA BBNI BBRI BBTN BMRI BMTR BSDE CPIN CTRA EXCL GGRM ICBP INCO INDF INTP ITMG JSMR KLBF LPKR LPPF LSIP MNCN MPPA PGAS PTBA PTPP PWON SCMA SILO SMGR SMRA SSMS TBIG TLKM UNTR UNVR WIKA WSKT CTRP CTRS SMCB BJBR BJTM KAEF SMBR TINS APLN DILD SRIL WTON -20% 10% 40% 70% 100% 0. 4 1. 2 2. 0

Saham Underprice dan mendekati PE ratio terendah

APLN PE Band

ASRI PE Band

5x 7x 9x 100 2 50 400 550 700

Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15

3.6x 7.8x 12x 16.2x 20.4x 250 500 750 1,000 1,250

Sumber: Lautandhana Securindo Sumber: Lautandhana Securindo

BJBR PE Band

BMTR PE Band

3.8x 5.39x 6.98x 400 650 900 1,150 1,400

Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15

7.4x 18.93x 30.45x 41.98x 53.5x 400 1,050 1,700 2,350 3,000

Fairly Price Line

Over Price Area (Negative Alpha) Under Price Area (Positive Alpha)

Beberapa saham yang berada di atas

fairly price line (security market line)

saat ini berkondisi under price dan layak

dicermati. Investor dapat melakukan

posisi beli maupun menambah proporsi

(overweight) pada saham ini.

Sedangkan beberapa saham yang

berada di bawah fairly price line saat ini

berkondisi over price. Investor dapat

melakukan posisi jual atau mengurangi

proporsi (underweight) pada saham ini.

Sensitivity to Market Expected Return

Update 16 October 2015

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BSDE PE Band

CTRP PE Band

7x 11.83x 16.65x 400 1,050 1,700 2,350 3,000

3.4x 8.87x 14.33x 19.79x 25.2 5x 200 550 900 1,2 50 1,600

CTRS PE Band

DILD PE Band

3.5x 8 .45x 13.4x 18.35x 23.3x 600 1,450 2,300 3,150 4,000

9.4x 14.5x 19.6x 100 300 500 700 900

GGRM PE Band

INDF PE Band

12x 16.15x 20 .3x 24.4 5x 28.6 x 26,000 38,500 51,000 63,500 76,000

10x 15.55x 15.55x 2 1.1x 26.65x 32.2x 3,50 0 4,750 6,00 0 7,250 8,50 0

JSMR PE Band

KAEF PE Band

17.9x 22.8x 27.7x 3 2.6x 37.5x 3,800 4,800 5,800 6,800 7,800

9.2x 15.6x 22x 28.4x 28x 200 550 900 1,250 1,600

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KIJA PE Band

MNCN PE Band

7x 14.91x 22.82x 30.73x 3 8.64x 50 225 4 00 575 750

Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12 Aug -12 M ar-13 Sep-13 Apr-14 Nov-14 M ay-15 Dec-15

9.6x 14.73x 19.85x 1,000 1,750 2,500 3,250 4,000

MPPA PE Band

PWON PE Band

12.8x 22.48x 32.15x 41.83x 51.5x 500 1,600 2,700 3,800 4,900

6.1x 10 .47x 14.83x 19.19x 100 250 400 550 700

SILO PE Band

SMRA PE Band

115x 9,000 11,000 13,000 15,000 17,000

Dec-13 Jul-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15

9.8x 13.73x 17.65x 21.58x 2 5.5x 400 850 1,300 1,750 2,200

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Support Resistance Beta Volatility Bearish Bullish

AGRICULTURE Plantation & Others

Astra Ago Lestari Tbk AALI 18,950 18,175 19,725 0.89 6.12% -21.86% Underweight 18,125 19,600

PP London Sumatra Tbk LSIP 1,410 1,340 1,435 0.56 5.23% -25.40% Underweight 1,370 1,440

Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk SSMS 1,875 1,775 1,885 0.91 5.84% 12.61% Underweight 1,790 1,940

Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk CPIN 2,500 2,450 2,600 1.64 6.02% -33.86% Underweight 2,295 2,660

MINING

Coal, Oil & Gas, Metal & Other Resources

Adaro Energy Tbk ADRO 640 620 705 1.65 7.25% -38.46% Underweight 585 680

Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk ITMG 10,125 10,125 11,100 1.06 6.27% -34.15% Underweight 9,575 10,525

Tambang Batu Bara Bukit Asam Tbk PTBA 6,450 6,275 6,925 1.28 5.61% -48.40% Underweight 6,025 6,750

Vale Indonesia Tbk INCO 2,230 2,205 2,530 0.79 7.21% -38.48% Underweight 2,140 2,300

BASIC INDUSTRY Cement & Others

Indocement Tunggal Perkasa Tbk. INTP 19,550 17,525 19,700 1.56 4.85% -21.80% Underweight 18,025 20,725

Semen Gresik Tbk SMGR 10,400 10,050 10,700 1.44 5.10% -35.80% Underweight 9,650 10,975

MISC.INDUSTRY Otomotif

Astra International Tbk ASII 6,300 6,100 6,825 1.53 5.14% -15.15% Underweight 5,800 6,675

Sri Rejeki Isman Tbk SRIL 384 366 398 0.73 8.14% 135.58% Underweight 370 395

CONSUMER GOODS

Foods, Cigarette, Pharmacy & Others

Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP 13,200 12,500 13,575 0.95 3.48% 0.76% Underweight 12,575 13,675

Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk INDF 6,200 5,500 6,200 0.96 3.51% -8.15% Overweight 5,900 6,425

Unilever Indonesia Tbk UNVR 37,575 37,125 39,500 0.87 3.28% 16.33% Underweight 35,975 38,850

Gudang Garam Tbk. GGRM 42,800 42,500 44,575 0.61 3.76% -29.49% Overweight 41,525 43,850

Kalbe Farma Tbk KLBF 1,445 1,425 1,540 1.17 3.71% -21.04% Overweight 1,360 1,510

PROPERTY & CONSTRUCTION

Alam Sutera Realty Tbk ASRI 375 375 418 1.76 6.66% -33.04% Overweight 342 401

Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk BSDE 1,620 1,615 1,795 1.58 5.13% -10.25% Overweight 1,490 1,715

Lippo Karawaci Tbk LPKR 1,260 1,165 1,260 1.26 5.36% 23.53% Underweight 1,180 1,320

Pakuwon Jati Tbk PWON 383 382 422 1.75 6.20% -25.63% Overweight 350 409

Summarecon Agung Tbk SMRA 1,300 1,295 1,450 1.59 6.08% -14.47% Overweight 1,195 1,380

Adhi Karya (Persero) Tbk ADHI 2,075 2,060 2,175 1.34 6.22% -40.37% Underweight 1,935 2,180

PP (Persero) Tbk PTPP 3,585 3,550 3,850 0.96 4.44% 0.28% Overweight 3,415 3,720

Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk WIKA 2,955 2,940 3,100 1.43 5.19% -19.70% Underweight 2,745 3,120

Waskita Karya (Persero) Tbk WSKT 1,595 1,595 1,645 0.89 4.45% 8.50% Overweight 1,525 1,650

Waskita Karya Beton (Persero) Tbk WTON 1,000 990 1,055 1.69 5.79% -23.08% Underweight 915 1,065

INFRASTRUCTURE

Energy, Transportation & Highway, Telecommunication, Non Building Construction

Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk PGAS 3,065 2,925 3,160 1.06 4.18% -48.92% Neutral 2,905 3,190

Jasa Marga Tbk JSMR 5,450 5,200 5,600 1.11 3.71% -22.70% Overweight 5,150 5,675

XL Axiata Tbk EXCL 3,240 3,050 3,475 1.20 5.75% -33.40% Overweight 3,045 3,390

Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk TLKM 2,680 2,635 2,730 0.89 2.90% -6.46% Overweight 2,530 2,775

Tower Bersama Infrastructure Tbk TBIG 6,925 6,400 7,000 0.80 3.91% -28.61% Underweight 6,650 7,125

FINANCE Bank

Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA 12,800 12,750 13,600 1.24 3.56% -2.48% Underweight 12,000 13,400

Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI 5,100 4,810 5,150 1.56 4.94% -16.39% Underweight 4,705 5,400

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI 10,300 10,025 10,850 1.60 4.80% -11.59% Underweight 9,475 10,925

Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk BBTN 1,145 1,090 1,185 1.04 4.76% -4.98% Underweight 1,085 1,190

Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI 8,925 8,850 9,225 1.45 3.99% -17.17% Neutral 8,275 9,425

TRADE & SERVICE

Investment Company & Wholesale

AKR Corporindo Tbk AKRA 6,050 5,800 6,050 0.56 4.24% 46.84% Underweight 5,875 6,175

United Tractors Tbk UNTR 18,900 17,950 20,150 1.10 4.94% 8.93% Underweight 17,875 19,700

Matahari Departement Store Tbk LPPF 16,300 15,600 16,700 1.00 3.99% 8.67% Neutral 15,475 16,925

Matahari Putra Prima Tbk MPPA 2,465 2,260 2,590 1.40 6.74% -19.18% Overweight 2,295 2,595

Media Nusantara Citra Tbk MNCN 1,660 1,640 2,000 1.20 5.37% -34.65% Overweight 1,560 1,735

Surya Citra Media Tbk SCMA 3,025 2,875 3,100 1.21 4.54% -13.57% Underweight 2,845 3,165

Global Mediacom Tbk BMTR 995 975 1,140 1.33 5.93% -30.18% Overweight 930 1,045

Siloam International Hospitals Tbk SILO 12,175 12,125 12,625 0.50 4.59% -11.13% Overweight 11,875 12,400

Emiten Ticker Close Weekly Indicator YTD Performance Weekly Forecast

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DISCLAMER

This report has been prepared by PT. Lautandhana Securindo on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of PT. Lautandhana Securindo.

While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, PT. Lautandhana Securindo makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is provided solely for the information of clients of PT. Lautandhana Securindo who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance on this report. Neither PT. Lautandhana Securindo nor any officer or employee of PT. Lautandhana Securindo accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. PT. Lautandhana Securindo and/or person connected with it may have acted upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before publication.

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