YRW Timor-Leste Agora Iha Ne'ebe

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YELLOW ROAD WORKSHOP

09 -10 MAIU - 2013

AGENDA

1. ITA ATU BA NE’EBE?

2. AGORA ITA IHA NE’EBE?

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Sei Aprezenta kona-ba progresu no dezafiu iha prosesu

dezenvolvimentu iha area:

–

Kapital Sosial

–

Infraestrutura

–

Ekonomia:

• Kresimentu Ekonomiku

• Inflasaun

• Politika Fiskal: 1) Reseitas Domestika; 2) Reseitas

Mina-rai; 3) Ezekusaun Orsamentu.

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Objetivu

Faze Frajilidade

Faze 1: Krize

Faze 2: Hari i & Reforma

Faze 3: Tranzisaun

Faze 4: Transformasaun

Faze: Rezilensia

1. Lejitimidade

Politika

2. Seguransa

3. Justisa

4. Fundasaun

Ekonomia

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N

o INDIKADOR INFRAESTRUTURA Ent. Resp.

Rezulta

Prevalensia TB MoS

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N

o INDIKADOR KAPITAL SOSIAL Ent. Resp.

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7

N

o INDIKADOR INFRAESTRUTURA Ent. Resp.

Rezulta

o INDIKADORES EKONOMIA Ent. Resp.

Rezulta

7 Investimentu publiku (Despezas Kapital $M) 2011 MoF & SEAPRI 588.2 ?

8 % kresimentu ekonomiku 2011 MoF 10.8 11.5

9 % despeza husi non-oil GDP MoF 112.4 97.4

10 % inflasaun MoF 10.9 4-6

11 reseitas domestika ($M) MoF 134.1 181.7

12 % defisit non-oil reseitas domestika 2011 MoF 101.2 88.8

13 importasaun ($M) 2011 MCIA 339.6 ?

14 eksportasaun ($M) 2011 MCIA 53.2 ?

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*Estimasaun Preliminariu.

Nota: dadus aktualizadu inklui mos dadus foun iha 2011.

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• 2004 = $546

• 2011 = $850

• Durante tinan 7, GDP per-kapita aumenta $304 ho média

(average)

$43/tinan

• SDP 2030 = $4,000 (Upper Middle Income)

• 2011 = $850

• Atu atinji vizaun PED, iha tinan 19, GDP per-kapita minimu

tenki aumenta $3,150 ho média

(average)

$166/tinan

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0.0 1000.0

2000.0

3000.0

4000.0

5000.0

2030

2010

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

Public administration

Retail & wholesale

Real estate activities

Construction

Information and communication

Transport

Accom & restaurants

Manufacturing

Others

Nominal GDP by Sector, in 2010 US$ millions

859

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12

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Azerbaijan China Kazakhstan Korea South Africa Timor-Leste

Others

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1.1

3.7 3.7

5.2

8.0

12.1 12.4 12.4

15.4

10.9 11.0 11.0 _10.9

-2.00

Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12

(%

)

Food Alcohol & Tobacco

Clothing and Footwear Housing

Household Furnishings, Supplies and Services Health

Recreation and Education Transport and Communication

Inflation

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0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0 Live chicken

Cabbage

Onion

Sand*

U

SD

/unit

of m

easur

em

en

t

2009

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Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Thailand

Laos

Fiji

P

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16

• Despeza rekorente kontribui ba inflasaun;

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17

760.3 1,095.9

1,190.5

1,647.5

96.4

108.5

137.1

146.3

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800

2010 2011 2012 2013 Budgeted

$

mil

li

on

s

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-

Income Tax Royalties & Profit oil

18



Total reseitas petrolifero tama iha Fundu dezde 2005

to o

Marsu 2013 maka tokon 16.038 dolar

amerikanu.



Estimasaun reseitas ba 2013 maka tokon 2.309 dolar amerikanu (Orc. 2013).

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Reseitas Domestika no finansiamentu OGE

-500 0 500 1000 1500 2000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Orc

T

o

ko

n

do

la

r

A

m

e

rika

nu

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Klasifikasaun TL iha Doing

Business 2013

Klasifikasaun TL Iha

Doing Business 2012

Mudansa Iha

Klasifikasaun

Total 185 Nasoens

169

0

Starting a Business

₁₄₇

₁₅₁

₄

Dealing with

Construction Permits

₁₁₆

₁₁₈

₂

Getting Electricity

₄₀

₄₅

₅

Registering Property

₁₈₅

_{No change}

Getting Credit

₁₅₉

₁₅₈

_-1

Protecting Investors

₁₃₉

₁₃₆

_-3

Paying Taxes

₆₁

₅₆

_-5

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• Asistensia Dezezvolvimentu ba Timor-Leste iha

nivel US$200 + milhoes

husi tinan

to o

,

mais ou menus 10 % husi fontes orsamento combinadas

.

• Iha fulan Marçu 2013 Planu Asistensia Dezemvolvimentu ho montante

US$ tokon

159.0 ba ti a

. Parseirus deze volvi e tu ia ko it e tu fou e ebe aka

iha o a espera katak bele hasa e iha ivel ida e e.

• Alem de husi asistensia grant, orsamentu imprestimu planu ona iha projeitu rua

e ebe

aseita: tokon US$12.7 ba 2013, tokon US$39.7 ba 2014 no tokon US$26.6 ba

tinan 2015.

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• Iha ona progresu barak ba dezenvolvimentu

kapital sosial, infraestrutura no ekonomia,

maibe indikadores barak maka la iha dadus atu

sukat;

• Kresimentu ekonomiku boot (domina husi setor

publiku) maibe inflasaun mos as;

• Persiza identifika klean liu tan setor potensial

atu aumenta GDP

• Ezekusaun orsamental



$1.1 b

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• Ko se su atu hadia o hari’i baze de

dadus ba pla ea e tu o evaluasau

programas;

• Ko se su ba E“TADU DA NA“AUN

agora;

• Identifika no konsensu ba oportunidades

no dezafius ba Timor-Leste.

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