Analisis Keputusan Bisnis

Annissa Nisrinna Nuur Ardanti 21611024

Analisis Keputusan Bisnis

1. Slide 22: Latihan Exponential Smoothing Bulan

(t)

Permintaan Aktual

(A) Forcase (F) dengan α = 0.8

1 300 295.71

2 240 295.7+0.8(300-295.7) = 299.142

3 310 299.14+0.8(240-299.14) = 251.828

4 280 251.828+0.8(310-251.828) = 298.366

5 330 298.36+0.8(280-298.36) = 283.673

6 310 283.67+0.8(330-283.67) = 320.735

7 300 320.73+0.8(310-320.73) = 312.147

312.14+0.8(300-312.14) = 302.429

Rata-rata = 2070/7 = 295.71

2. Slide 30: Latihan Linear Trend Period

(t)

Sale

(Yt) t ∗ Yt t²

1 72 72 1

2 85 170 4

3 110 330 9

4 80 320 16

5 120 600 25

6 90 540 36

7 120 840 49

8 110 880 64

9 130 1170 81

10 120 1200 100

∑ = 55 1037 6122 385

Mencari nilai (b)

𝑏 =𝑛 ∑(𝑡𝑌𝑡) − ∑ 𝑡 ∑ 𝑌𝑡 𝑛 ∑ 𝑡² − (∑ 𝑡)² 𝑏 =10(6122) − 55(1037)

10(385) − (55)² 𝑏 =61220 − 57035

3850 − 3025 𝑏 = 5.07 Mencari nilai (a)

𝑎 =∑(𝑌𝑡) − 𝑏 ∑ 𝑡 𝑛

𝑎 =1037 − 5.07(55) 10

𝑎 = 75.8 𝑌 = 𝑎 + 𝑏𝑡 𝑌 = 75.8 + 5.07𝑡