F. No. 3-1/ 2019-20-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443 Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 09.06.2020
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP
HELD ON 05.06.2020.
Summary
• All-India level rainfall during the week, 28 May – 03 June 2020, has been 61% higher than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, rainfall has been higher than LPA by 158% in North West India, by 121% in Central India, by 74% in South Peninsula and by 9% in East and North East India.
• Cumulative rainfall in the country during the Pre-Monsoon season, 1March – 31 May 2020, has been 20% higher than LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, rainfall during this period has been higher than LPA by 104% in Central India, by 31% in North West India and by 6% in East and North East India, but lower than LPA by 4% in South Peninsula.
• Out of 36 MET sub-divisions, 17 MET sub-divisions constituting 56% of the total area of the country have received large excess/excess rainfall, 11 MET sub-divisions constituting 26% of the total area have received normal rainfall, and 08 MET sub-divisions constituting 18% of the total area have received deficient/large deficient rainfall.
• Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 123 major reservoirs in the country which have total live capacity of 171.09 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of these, 99 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 126.45 BCM have irrigation potential. Live storage in 123 major reservoirs as on 04 June 2020 was 55.84 BCM as against 32.80 BCM on the same day last year (04 June 2019) and 33.71 BCM of normal (average of the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 170% of last year’s storage and 166% of last 10 year’s average storage.
• All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 05 June 2020 for Kharif Marketing Season (KMS) 2019-20 is 479.42 lakh tonnes against procurement of 423.10 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year.
• All-India progressive procurement of Wheat as on 05 June 2020 for Rabi Marketing Season (RMS) 2020-21 is 367.94 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 344.00 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year.
Pre-Monsoon Season (March–May) during the week ending 31 May 2020 I. Rainfall
Table 1.1: Sub-Division-wise Weekly Rainfall Forecast for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2020 Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 04 JUN 05 JUN 06 JUN 07 JUN 08 JUN 09 JUN 10 JUN
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS WS● WS● WS● WS WS● WS● WS●
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH WSTS● FWSTS● FWSTS● FWSTS● SCT SCT SCT
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA WSTS● WSTS●● FWSTS● FWSTS● FWSTS● FWS WS● 4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA WS● FWS●● FWS● FWS WSTS● WS● WS●
5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM WS●● WS●● WS● FWS FWS FWS FWS
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL SCTTS ISOLTS ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
7 ODISHA SCTTS ISOL ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOL ISOL
8 JHARKHAND FWSTS SCTTS ISOL ISOL D D ISOL
9 BIHAR SCTTS FWS$● ISOLTS ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH WSTS●● FWSTS● ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH FWSTS SCTTS ISOL ISOL D D D
12 UTTARAKHAND FWSTS# FWSTS# SCTTS SCTTS ISOL ISOL ISOL
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI SCTTS SCTTS ISOLTS ISOL ISOL D D
14 PUNJAB ISOLTS ISOLTS SCTTS ISOL ISOL D D
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH SCTTS# FWSTS# FWSTS SCTTS ISOL ISOL ISOL
16 JAMMU & K. AND LADAKH SCTTS SCTTS SCTTS ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
17 WEST RAJASTSAN SCTTS SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL D D
18 EAST RAJASTSAN SCTTS SCTTS● SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH FWSTS● SCT● SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH WS●● FWSTS●● ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. SCT ISOL SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL 22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
23 KONKAN & GOA WSTS● WS WS WS● WS● WS WS
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA FWSTS● SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT ISOL
25 MARATHAWADA SCTTS ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
26 VIDARBHA FWSTS● ISOL● ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
27 CHHATTISGARH WSTS●● SCTTS●● ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM SCTTS● ISOL SCTTS SCTTS SCTTS FWS● FWS●
29 TELANGANA ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOLTS ISOLTS SCT FWS●
30 RAYALASEEMA ISOL ISOL SCTTS ISOLTS ISOL SCT SCT
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOLTS SCTTS SCTTS SCT SCT SCT FWS
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA WSTS● WS WS WS WS WS WS
33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA SCTTS● SCTTS● FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS
35 KERALA & MAHE WS●● WS●● WS● WS● WS WS WS
36 LAKSHADWEEP WS● WS WS WS SCT WS WS
LEGENDS:
WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL
●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
FOG * SNOWFALL #HAILSTORM - COLD WAVE (-4.5 OC to -6.4 OC) -- SEVERE COLD WAVE (< -6.4)
$TSUNDERSTORM WITS SQUALL/GUSTY WIND
DS/TS
DUST/THUNDERSTORM + HEAT WAVE (+4.5 OC to +6.4 OC) ++ SEVERE HEAT WAVE (>
+6.4)
• Rainfall during the week (28 May 2020 to 03 June 2020): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 29 met sub-divisions, normal in 02 sub-division and deficient/large deficient in 05 sub-division out of 36 met sub-divisions.
• Cumulative rainfall (1 March 2020 to 31 May 2020): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 17 met sub-divisions, normal in 11 met sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 08 sub-divisions out of 36 met sub-divisions.
Table 1.2: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country1:
Region Week Ending (03.06.20) Cumulative (01.03.20 to 31.05.2020) (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West India 19.6 7.6 158 LE 149.4 114.4 31 E
Central India 18.8 8.5 121 LE 76.5 37.5 104 LE
South Peninsular India 37.5 21.6 74 LE 116.6 121.3 -4 N
East & North-East India 58.5 53.9 9 N 401.2 376.8 6 N
Country as a whole 29.1 18.1 61 LE 158.5 131.7 20 E
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N:Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table1.3: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 1 March 2020 to 31 May 2020
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1 March to
31 MAY 2015
31 MAY 2016
31 MAY 2017
31 MAY 2018
31 MAY 2019
31 MAY 2020 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 26 08 34
- 08 16 24
02 03 13 18
03 06 10 19
01 03 09 13
13 04 11 28 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
02 - 00 00 02
09 - 03 00 12
15 03 - 00 18
12 05 - 00 17
13 10 - 00 23
06 02 - 00 08
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation 38% (-) 3% (-) 2% (-) 11% (-) 25% 20%
Source: IMD
1. North-west India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.
Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Goa and Gujarat.
South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Kerala, A & N islands and Lakshadweep.
East & North East India - Bihar, Jharkhand , West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Table 1.4: Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 5 June 2020 to 9 June 2020:
• Forecast for next two weeks at Annex-I.
II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 04 June 2020)
• Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 123 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 171.09 BCM, which is about 66.36% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
• Live Storage in 123 major reservoirs decreased to 55.84 BCM from the previous week’s level of 58.05 BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than last year’s storage position of 32.80 BCM and the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 33.71 BCM.
Table 2.1: For 123 major reservoirs of the country Period Storage as % of
FRL
Storage as % of Last Year
Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level
Current Week 33 170 166
Last Week 34 170 167
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 19% on 04-06-2019, 17% on 04-06-2018, 21% on 04- 06-2017 and 16% on 04-06-2016.
Source: CWC
• There were 105 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 12 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 01 reservoir with storage between 31% to 50% and 05 reservoirs with storage upto 30% of Normal Storage, out of which 03 reservoirs had no live storage.
Source: Central Water Commission
III. Fertilizer Position:
Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Kharif 2020 (As on 31.05.2020)
(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP Opening Stock as on 01.04.2020 613 799 232 1,084 130 Requirement for April 2020 to Sept 2020 16,688 5,161 2,022 5,295 2,642
Estimated Requirement during May,2020 2,448 814 267 695 407
Cumulative Receipt upto 31.05.2020 4401 1170 321 1222 760
Cumulative Availability upto 31.05.2020 5014 1969 553 2306 890
Cumulative Sales upto 31.05.2020 4606 1527 347 1506 765
Closing Stock as on 31.05.2020 408 442 206 800 125
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer
IV. Pest & Diseases:
• Locust: There is report of crop damage below 33% in only 10(ha) of the affected 100 ha area due to locust attack in Savner of district Nagpur in Maharashtra. So far there is no report of crop loss in Gujarat, Punjab, UP, MP. Locust Warning Organization has controlled f 70363 ha area up to 4.6.2020 in the states of Rajasthan, Punjab, MP, Gujarat, Maharashtra and UP.
• Fall Army Worm reported at moderate intensity in 40 hectare area on Maize crop in Imphal West, Imphal East, Bishnupur, Thoubal, Senapati, Kangpokpi, Churachandpur and Kakching districts of Manipur. Farmers were advised to follow recommended Package of Practices for the management of Fall Army Worm.
• Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.
V. Seeds Position:
• No deficiency of seed for Kharif-2020 reported.
VI. Progressive Procurements as on 05 June 2020
Table 7.1: Rice
(in lakh tonnes) State Target in Marketing
season 2019-20 (October– September)
Progressive Procurement as on 05.0 6.2020
In Marketing season 2019-2020
In Marketing season 2018-2019
Andhra Pradesh 61.92 50.29 40.96
Telangana 91.92 71.89 51.28
Bihar 12.00 13.41 9.49
Chhattisgarh 48.00 39.71 40.20
Haryana 40.00 43.03 39.42
Kerala 4.50 4.67 4.61
Madhya Pradesh 14.00 17.40 14.62
Maharashtra 9.35 8.92 4.54
Odisha 43.50 41.24 36.59
Punjab 114.00 108.76 113.34
Tamil Nadu 13.44 16.08 11.70
Uttar Pradesh 33.00 37.90 32.33
Uttarakhand 5.00 6.81 4.62
West Bengal 26.00 15.02 16.87
All-India 524.25 479.42 423.10
Table 7.2: Wheat
(in lakh tonnes) State Target in Marketing
season 2020-21 (April– March)
Progressive Procurement as on 05.0 6.2020
In Marketing season 2020-2021
In Marketing season 2019-2020
Bihar 2.00 0.04 0.02
Gujarat 0.50 0.33 0.05
Haryana 95.00 73.50 93.21
Himachal Pradesh 0.33 0.03 0.01
Madhya Pradesh 130.00 125.12 73.69
Punjab 135.00 127.12 129.12
Rajasthan 20.66 15.40 13.19
Uttar Pradesh 55.00 25.94 34.16
Uttarakhand 2.00 0.35 0.42
All-India 440.66 367.94 344.00
Annex III
Weather forecast for next two Weeks
Weather Systems and Associated Precipitation &Temperature Patterns
Week-1: 04 - 10 June 2020
• The current rain spell over Rajasthan, Utter Pradesh and Central parts of India and Gujarat state likely to continue till 5 June 2020 and significantly reduce thereafter. In the absence of any supporting rain bearing System over Northwest India from 6 June, mainly dry weather likely to prevail over most parts of northwest India during 2nd half of week- 1. With moderate southwesterly winds likely to continue at lower levels across west coast of India, scattered to fairly widespread rainfall likely to continue over west coast and southern parts of west coast of peninsular India during the 1st half of the week. With formation of low pressure over east central Bay during 8-10 June, rainfall likely to increase from 8-9 June 2020 over west coast of India.
• Cumulatively Rainfall for the week: Normal to excess rainfall very likely over central and western parts of India including Maharashtra state except northeastern states and southern parts of peninsular India where normal to deficient rainfall likely.
Week-2: 11 - 17 June 2020
• As per mode consensus, a low Pressure Area likely to form over eastern parts of West central Bay of Bengal around 08th June, 2020 and likely to move northwest wards towards Odisha Coast and then further towards central part of India as Depression during 11-14 June. Under its impact, east coast of India, Central parts of India and west coast of India likely to get normal to excess rainfall during the Week 2 making conditions favorable for advance of southwest monsoon over many parts of these areas. Under such scenario, easterly wind also likely to be set in over northern plains of India by 1st half of the week 2 causing enhancement of the rainfall activities over northern parts of India.
• Cumulative Rainfall for the Week: Normal to excess rainfall likely over most parts of India except western Himalayan region and Tamil Nadu and Northeastern states.
Maximum Temperatures
• During week-1 (04 - 10 June 2020):- No heat wave conditions likely to develop during the week over any parts of the country. Average Maximum temperatures of Week 1 are most likely to be below normal by 5-7degC over central and part of western parts of India while it is likely to be 2-4 degC below normal over remaining parts of India except Tamil Nadu and some parts of east and adjoin northeastern states of India, where it is likely to be normal.
• During week-2 (11 - 17 June 2020):- maximum temperatures are likely to be normal over most parts of India except parts of Rajasthan and northern parts of Gujarat state, where heat wave conditions likely to develop towards end of the week.
