F. No. 3-1/ 2019-20-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443 Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 28.01.2020
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP
HELD ON 24.01.2020.
Summary observations of the Group on Agenda Items
The All-India level rainfall during the week i.e. 16th January, 2020 – 22nd January, 2020 has been 26% higher than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 36% in North West India, by 15% in Central India and by 11% in East & North East India but lower than LPA by 40% in South Peninsula.
The cumulative rainfall in the country during the winter season i.e. 1st January, 2020 to 22nd January, 2020 has been by 116% higher than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 155% in Central India, by 132% in North West India and by 110% in East & North East India but lower than LPA by 9% in South Peninsula.
For winter season 1st January, 2020 to 22nd January, 2020 out of 36 met sub-divisions, 22 met sub-divisions constituting 68% of the total area of the country has received large excess/excess rainfall, 04 met sub-divisions constituting 19% of the total area of the country has received normal rainfall, 07 met sub-divisions constituting 18% of the total area of the country has received deficient/large deficient rainfall and 03 met sub-divisions constituting 4% of the total area of the country has received no rainfall.
Central Water Commission monitors 120 major reservoirs in the country which have total live
capacity of 170.33 Billion Cubic Meter (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of these, 95 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 125.19 BCM have irrigation potential. Live storage in 120 major reservoirs as on 23rd January, 2020 has been 122.85 BCM as against 78.67 BCM on 23.01.2019 (last year) and 85.42 BCM of normal (average of the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 156% of last year’s storage and 144% of average of last 10 year’s storage.
As per latest information available on sowing of Rabi crops, around 103% of the normal area under Rabi crops has been sown upto 24.01.2020. Area sown under all rabi crops taken together has been reported 654.13 lakh hectares at All India level as compared to 597.52 lakh hectares in the corresponding period of last year and 605.90 lakh ha. normal area as on date.
All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 24.01.2020 for Kharif Marketing Season (KMS) 2019-20 is 321.65 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 316.92 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year.
1. Winter Season (Jan. – Feb.) during the week ending 22nd January, 2020
Sub-Division wise Weekly Rainfall Forecast is shown in Table-1.1
Rainfall during the week (16th January, 2020 to 22nd January, 2020) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 11 sub-divisions, normal in 02 sub divisions, deficient/large deficient in 13 and no rain in 10 met sub-division out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
Cumulative rainfall (01st January, 2020 to 22nd January, 2020) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 22 met sub-divisions, normal in 04 met sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 07 sub- divisions and no rain in 03 met sub-division out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions
Table - 1.2: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country1
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table -1.3: Category wise comparative distribution of Sub-division (cumulative rainfall) and All- India Percentage Rainfall Departure for the last five years since: 1st Jan., 2020 to 22nd January, 2020
Source: IMD
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 24th Jan., 2020 to 28th Jan., 2020 is shown in Table 1.4.
Forecast for next two weeks at Annex-I
1. North-west India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.
Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Goa and Gujarat.
South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Kerala, A & N islands and Lakshadweep.
East & North East India - Bihar, Jharkhand , West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manip ur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Region Week Ending (22.01.2020) Cumulative (01.01.20 to 22.01.20) (in mm) Devi-
ation (%)
Cate- gory
(in mm) Devi- ation
(%)
Cate- gory
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West India 11.2 8.2 36 E 49.0 21.1 132 LE
Central India 1.5 1.3 15 N 13.0 5.1 155 LE
South Peninsular India 0.8 1.3 -40 D 6.4 7.0 -9 N
East & North-East India 5.1 4.6 11 N 23.4 11.1 110 LE
Country as a whole 4.9 3.9 26 E 24.4 11.3 116 LE
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1st October to 21 JAN
2015
20 JAN 2016
25 JAN 2017
24 JAN 2018
23 JAN 2019
22 JAN 2020 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 18 04 22
- 06 06 12
02 01 04 07
01 00 00 01
05 02 02 09
19 03 04 26 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
08 - 06 00 14
03 - 16 05 24
04 16 - 09 29
05 12 - 18 35
01 09 - 17 27
03 04 - 03 10
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 7% (-) 31% (-) 3% (-) 84% (-) 3% 116%
Table: 1.1
Source: IMD
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE DISTRIBUTION OF REALISED RAINFALL-2020
S.No. MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 16 JAN 17 JAN 18 JAN 19 JAN 20 JAN 21 JAN 22 JAN
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS D SCT D D D ISOL D
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH D ISOL ISOL SCT FWS FWS ISOL
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA D D D D SCT ISOL D
4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA D D D D ISOL ISOL D
5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM D D FWS D ISOL D ISOL
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL D D D D ISOL D D
7 ODISHA D D D D ISOL D D
8 JHARKHAND D D D SCT ISOL D D
9 BIHAR D ISOL SCT ISOL ISOL D D
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH SCT FWS** ISOL D D D D
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH FWS WS* ISOL D D D D
12 UTTARAKHAND ISOL WS** WS FWS D SCT ISOL
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI ISOL SCT D D D D D
14 PUNJAB D ISOL D ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH D WS ISOL FWS D WS ISOL
16 JAMMU & KASHMIR SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT FWS
17 WEST RAJASTHAN D D D D D D D
18 EAST RAJASTHAN ISOL ISOL D D D D D
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH SCT ISOL D D D D ISOL
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL SCT D ISOL D D ISOL
21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. D D D D D D D
22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU D D D D D D D
23 KONKAN & GOA D D D D D D D
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA D D D D D D D
25 MARATHAWADA D D D D D D D
26 VIDARBHA D D D D D D D
27 CHHATTISGARH D D ISOL ISOL ISOL D D
28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM D D ISOL ISOL D D ISOL
29 TELANGANA D D D D ISOL D D
30 RAYALASEEMA D D ISOL ISOL D D D
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL D ISOL ISOL SCT ISOL D ISOL
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA D D D D D D D
33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA D D D D D D D
34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA D D D D D D D
35 KERALA & MAHE D D D ISOL ISOL D D
36 LAKSHADWEEP SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT D D
LEGENDS:
WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NO STATION REPORTED RAINFALL
* ACTIVE (R/F 11/2- 4 times the normal with WS/FWS, at least 2 stations should be 5 cm. along west coast & 3 cm. elsewhere )
** VIGOROUS (R/F More than 4 times the normal with WS/FWS, at least 2 stations should be 8 cm. along west coast & 5 cm. elsewhere)
Table: 1.4
2. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 24.01.2020)
The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 120 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 170.33 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM), which is about 66.06% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
Live Storage in 120 major reservoirs decreased to 122.85 BCM from the previous week’s level of 126.66 BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than the last year’s storage position of 78.67 BCM and the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 85.42 BCM.
Table – 2.1 : For 120 major reservoirs of the country Period Storage as % of
FRL
Storage as % of last year
Storage as % of 10 year’s average level
Current Week Last Week
72 74
156 155
144 144
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 46% on 23/01/2019, 46% on 23/01/2018, 51% on 23/01/2017 and 39% on 23/01/2016.
Source: CWC
There were 115 reservoirs having storage more than 80% of normal storage, 2 reservoirs having storage between 51% to 80%, 0 reservoir having storage between 31% to 50%
and 03 reservoirs having storage upto 30% of Normal Storage.
Source: Central Water Commission 10
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
In BCM
ALL-INDIA RESERVOIR TREND
(WATER STOCK IN 2019 VS 2018 & AVERAGE OF LAST 10 YEARS)
This Year
Last Year
Avg. of Last Ten Years
Week Ending
3. Fertilizer Position:
Table – 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP during Rabi 2019-20 (As on 24.01.2020)
(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.10.2019 365 1377 377 1269 140
Requirement for Rabi 2019 17904 5208 1773 5186 2567
Estimated Requirement during Jan, 2020 3298 490 263 818 377 Cumulative Receipt upto 24.01.2020 12260 3451 680 3347 1312 Cumulative Availability upto 24.01.2020 12625 4828 1057 4616 1452
Cumulative Sales upto 24.01.2020 11999 3527 728 3226 1292
Closing Stock as on 24.01.2020 626 1301 329 1390 160
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW) / Deptt. of Fertilizer
4. Pest & Diseases:
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level (ETL).
Fall Army Worm reported above ETL in 4,500 hectares on Rabi Maize (13 villages) and in14,300 hectares on Rabi Sorghum (16 villages) in Maharashtra.
Pod borer and wilt reported above ETL in 87,700 ha on Chick pea in Maharashtra.
No shortage of Chemical / Bio-pesticides was reported for any State / UT.
5. Availability position of seeds and fertilizers has been found satisfactory.
6
. All India Crop Situations - Rabi (2019-20) as on 24.01.2020
Table: 6.17.
Progressive procurement of Rice as on 24.01.2020
Table: 7.1
(lakh tonnes)
State Target in
marketing season 2019-20 (Oct. – Sept.)
Progressive Procurement as on 24.01.2020
In Marketing season 2019-2020
In Marketing season 2018-2019
Andhra Pradesh 40.00 18.54 19.69
Telangana 30.00 30.24 26.59
Chhattisgarh 48.00 37.31 39.64
Haryana 40.00 43.03 39.42
Kerala 2.50 1.16 0.61
Madhya Pradesh 14.00 15.35 12.75
Maharashtra 6.00 3.27 2.32
Odisha 34.00 21.24 20.46
Punjab 114.00 108.91 113.34
Tamil Nadu 8.00 0.70 2.04
Uttar Pradesh 33.00 33.94 25.36
Uttrakhand 5.00 6.21 4.44
All-India 416.00 321.65 316.92
Annexure-III Rainfall for next two Weeks
Weather systems and associated Precipitation & temperature pattern during week 1 (24th – 30th January 2020) and week 2 (31st January - 6th February 2020)
Rainfall for week 1: (24th – 30th January 2020)
Under the influence of a fresh WD which likely from 24th January night isolated to scattered rain/ thunderstorms are likely over Western Himalayan region, for two days.
This may not cause any significant rainfall activity over northwest India and northern plains. However, strong surface winds (20-30 kmph) are likely over these regions occasionally upto 26th January. Apart from the likely WD from the night of 27th January, low level cyclonic circulations combined with moisture incursion from the Bay of Bengal is likely to cause isolated to scattered rain / thunderstorms over Haryana, Chandigarh &
Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, north Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Odisha, Gangetic west Bengal & Bihar during 28th – 30th January, 2020.
Cumulative precipitation is likely to be above normal over Gangetic west Bengal and north coastal Odisha and normal rainfall over the rest of the States and union territories outside Jammu & Kashmir and Nicobar Islands where it is likely to be below normal.
Rainfall for week 2: (31st January – 06th February, 2020)
Yet another WD is likely to affect western Himalayan region on 30th & 31st January. This system is also likely to cause weather in the form of rain / thundershowers over parts of eastern India (Jharkhand, Odisha & Gangetic west Bengal) during 3rd – 5th February, due to confluence of low level moist easterlies.
Higher reaches of Arunachal Pradesh is likely to receive snowfall due to the movement of systems in westerlies during the week.
Cumulatively, above normal precipitation is likely over Telangana, coastal Andhra Pradesh, some parts of Vidarbha, south Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Gangetic west Bengal, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, and below normal over Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Nicobar Islands. Near normal rainfall likely over the rest of the country.
Minimum Temperatures for week 1: (17th – 23rd January 2020)
Night minimum temperatures are likely to remain below normal to near normal during a few days over major parts of India outside coastal & south interior Karnataka, Rayalseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh and north Kerala, where above normal night temperatures are likely to prevail on some of the days during the week.
Minimum Temperatures for week 2: (24th – 30th January 2020)
Night minimum temperatures are likely to continue to remain below normal to near normal over major parts of India, outside coastal & south interior Karnataka, Rayalseema, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, where they are likely to be markedly above normal during some of the days.
