F. No. 3-1/ 2019-20-CFCC-ES

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F. No. 3-1/ 2019-20-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)

Room No. 443 Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 25.06.2020

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH

GROUP HELD ON 19.06.2020.

Summary

• All-India level rainfall during the week,11 Juneto17 June 2020, has been 31%higher than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- higher by 85%in Central India - higher by 27% in South Peninsula - lower by 26% in North West India and - lower by 1% in East and North East India.

• Cumulative rainfall during Monsoonseason,01 to17 June 2020, has been 32% higher than LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- higher by 91% in Central India - higher by 16% in South Peninsula, - higher by 10% in North West India, and - higher by 1% in East and North East India.

• Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:

- large excess/ excess in 23MET sub-divisionsconstituting69% of total area - normal in 07MET sub-divisions constituting 14% of total area, and

- deficient/large deficient in 06MET sub-divisions constituting 17% of total area.

• Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 123 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 171.09Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).

- Out of these, 99reservoirs with FRL capacity of 126.45 BCM have irrigation potential.

- Live storage in 123 major reservoirs as on 18 June 2020was54.11 BCM, which is:

- 183% of last year’s storage on the same day (18 June 2019)of 29.58BCM.

- 169% of last 10 year’s average storage(normal) of 32.02BCM.

• Total area sown as on 19 June 2020 under Kharif crops has been reported to be 131.34lakh ha.

as compared to 94.23 lakh ha. during the same period last year and 108.41 lakh ha. normal area.

• Inflation (WPI Food Index) has declined from 3.60% in April 2020 to 2.31% in May 2020.

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- For Primary Articles it has declined from -0.79% in April 2020 to -2.92% in May 2020.

- For Food Articles it has declined from 2.55% in April 2020 to 1.13% in May 2020.

- For Non-food Articles it has declined from -1.17% in April 2020 to -3.53% in May 2020.

- For Pulses it has declined from 12.31% in April 2020 to 11.91% in May 2020.

- For Cereals it has declined from 2.74% in April 2020 to 1.97% in May 2020.

- For Wheat it has declined from 7.26% in April 2020 to 6.04% in May 2020.

- For Paddy it has declined from 1.40% in April 2020 to 1.21% in May 2020.

- For Fruits and Vegetables it has declined from 0.50% in April 2020 to -6.96% in May 2020.

- For Milk it has declined from 5.87% in April 2020 to 5.44% in May 2020.

• All-India progressive procurement as on 19 June 2020

- Rice for Kharif Marketing Season 2019-20 is 497.68 lakh tonnes (against 432.00lakh tonnes procured in the corresponding period of last year).

- Wheat for Rabi Marketing Season 2020-21 is 383.51 lakh tonnes (against 347.07lakh tonnes procured in the corresponding period of last year).

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MonsoonSeason (June-September) during the week ending17June2020 I. Rainfall

Table 1.1: Sub-Division-wise Weekly Rainfall Forecast for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST &Wx. WARNINGS-2020 Sr.

No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 18 JUN 19 JUN 20 JUN 21 JUN 22 JUN 23 JUN 24 JUN

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS WS WS WS WS^● WS^● WS WS

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH WS^TS●● WS^TS● WS^TS● WS^TS● WS^TS● WS^● WS^●

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA WS^TS^●● WS^TS^●● WS^TS^● WS^TS^●● WS^TS^● WS^●● WS^●●

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA WS^TS●● WS^TS● WS^TS● WS^TS● WS^TS● WS^● WS^● 5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM WS^●●● WS^●● WS^● WS^● WS^● WS^● WS^●

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL WS^● WS^● WS^● WS^● WS^● FWS SCT

7 ODISHA SCT FWS^● WS^●● WS^●● FWS^● FWS^● FWS^●

8 JHARKHAND WS^TS● WS^TS● WS^TS●● WS^TS●● WS^TS●● FWS FWS

9 BIHAR WS^TS●● WS^TS●● WS^● WS^● WS^● FWS^● FWS^●

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH FWS^TS^● FWS^TS SCT^TS SCT^TS FWS^TS^● FWS^● WS^●

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL ISOL^TS ISOL^TS SCT SCT FWS^● WS^●

12 UTTARAKHAND FWS^TS● FWS^TS FWS^TS FWS^TS● WS^TS● WS^●● WS^●●

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI ISOL ISOL^TS ISOL^TS ISOL ISOL SCT FWS^●

14 PUNJAB ISOL ISOL^TS ISOL^TS ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH ISOL ISOL SCT ISOL ISOL SCT FWS^●

16 JAMMU & K. AND LADAKH ISOL^TS ISOL^TS ISOL^TS ISOL^TS ISOL^TS ISOL ISOL 17 WEST RAJASTSAN D⁺⁺ D⁺⁺ D⁺ ISOL^TSDS ISOL^TSDS ISOL ISOL 18 EAST RAJASTSAN ISOL⁺^TS ISOL⁺^TS ISOL^TS ISOL^TS ISOL^TS SCT SCT

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH SCT^TS● SCT^TS SCT SCT^● FWS^● FWS^● FWS^●

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH FWS^TS● SCT^TS FWS^● WS^●● WS^● FWS FWS

21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. ISOL^TS ISOL^TS ISOL ISOL SCT SCT SCT 22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU ISOL^TS ISOL^TS ISOL ISOL SCT SCT SCT

23 KONKAN & GOA WS^●● WS^● WS^● WS^● WS^● WS^● WS^●

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA FWS^TS● SCT SCT SCT FWS FWS^● FWS

25 MARATHAWADA ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT SCT SCT

26 VIDARBHA SCT ISOL SCT FWS^● WS^● WS^● FWS

27 CHHATTISGARH FWS^TS●● FWS^TS●● WS^●● WS^●● WS^● WS^● FWS

28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM SCT^TS SCT SCT FWS^TS FWS^TS FWS FWS

29 TELANGANA SCT^TS SCT^TS FWS FWS SCT SCT SCT

30 RAYALASEEMA SCT^TS SCT^TS ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT^● SCT^● SCT ISOL

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA WS^TS● WS^TS● WS^● WS^● WS^● WS^● WS^●●

33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA FWS SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT

34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA FWS SCT SCT FWS^● FWS^● FWS FWS

35 KERALA & MAHE FWS FWS WS^● WS^● WS^● WS^● WS^●●

36 LAKSHADWEEP FWS FWS WS WS WS WS WS

LEGENDS:

WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)

SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL

●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ^●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ^●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)

FOG * SNOWFALL ^#HAILSTORM - COLD WAVE (-4.5^OC to -6.4^OC) -- SEVERE COLD WAVE (< -6.4)

$TSUNDERSTORM WITS SQUALL/GUSTY WIND

DS/TS

DUST/THUNDERSTORM ⁺HEAT WAVE (+4.5^OC to +6.4^OC) ⁺⁺ SEVERE HEAT WAVE (>

+6.4)

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• Rainfall during the week (11 June 2020 to 17 June 2020):Rainfall was large excess/excess in 21 met sub-divisions, normal in 03 sub-division and deficient/large deficient in 12 sub-divisions out of 36 met sub-divisions.

• Cumulative rainfall (01 June 2020 to 17June 2020):Rainfall was large excess/excess in 23 met sub-divisions, normal in 07 met sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 06 sub- divisions out of 36 met sub-divisions.

Table 1.2: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country¹:

Region of India Week Ending (17.06.2020) Cumulative (01.06.20 to 17.06.2020) (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category

Actual Normal Actual Normal

North-West 11.8 15.8 -26 D 33.2 30.1 10 N

Central 72.5 39.1 85 LE 125.9 66.0 91 LE

South Peninsular 54.0 42.6 27 E 99.8 86.3 16 N

East & North-East 81.3 81.9 -1 N 176.7 174.4 1 N

Country as a whole 51.6 39.4 31 E 100.4 76.2 32 E

LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.

Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Table1.3: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 to 17June 2020

No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall

For the period from 1 June to

17JUNE 2015

15JUNE 2016

14JUNE 2017

20JUNE 2018

19JUNE 2019

17JUNE 2020 Large Excess

Excess Normal Total

- 16 08 24

- 06 10 16

09 09 10 28

02 10 10 22

03 00 03 06

11 12 07 30 Deficient

Large Deficient Scanty

No rain Total

08 - 04 00 12

14 - 06 00 20

08 00 - 00 08

12 02 - 00 14

19 11 - 00 30

06 00 - 00 06

Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00

TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36

All-India % Rainfall Deviation 11% (-) 25% 15% (-) 7% (-) 43% 32%

Source: IMD

North-West India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.

Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Goa and Gujarat.

South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Kerala, A & N islands and Lakshadweep.

East & North East India - Bihar, Jharkhand , West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.

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Table 1.4: Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 19 June 2020 to 23 June 2020:

• Forecast for next two weeks at Annex-I.

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II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 18June2020)

• Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 123important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 171.09BCM, which is about 66.36% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.

• Live Storagein 123 major reservoirs decreasedto54.11 BCM from the previous week’s level of54.64BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than last year’s storage position of 29.58BCMand theaverage of last 10 year’s storage position of 32.02 BCM.

Table 2.1: For 123 major reservoirs of the country Period Storage as % of

FRL

Storage as % of Last Year

Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level

Current Week 32 183 169

Last Week 32 173 171

The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 17% on 18-06-2019, 19% on 18-06-2018, 20% on 18- 06-2017 and 15% on 18-06-2016.

Source: CWC

• There were 106reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage,09reservoirswith storage between51% to 80%,04reservoir with storage between 31% to 50% and 04reservoirswith storage upto30%of Normal Storage,out of which04 reservoirs had no live storage.

Source: Central Water Commission

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III. Fertilizer Position:

Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP)during Kharif2020 (As on19.06.2020)

(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP

Opening Stock as on 01.04.2020 613 799 232 1,084 130

Requirement for April2020 to Sept 2020 16,688 5,161 2,022 5,295 2,642 Estimated Requirement during June 2020 2,972 1,027 387 995 566 Cumulative Receipt upto19.06.2020 5,895 1,694 440 1,778 1,057 Cumulative Availability upto19.06.2020 6,508 2,493 672 2,862 1,187 Cumulative Sales upto19.06.2020 6,002 2,004 457 1,975 1,075

Closing Stock as on 19.06.2020 506 489 215 887 112

Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer

IV. Pest & Diseases:

•

Locust: No reports regarding crop damage in locust-affected States of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh received during this week.

ICAR-NCIPM has reported swarm of yellow colour locust (matured) near Jhansi, UP.

•

Fruit fly reported at moderate intensity in 220 hectare area on Mango in Sangareddy district of Telangana. Awareness created among mango farmers for the use of indigenous fruit fly traps for managing the pest.

•

Fall Army Worm reported at moderate intensity in 40 hectare area on Maize crop in Imphal West, Imphal East, Bishnupur, Thoubal, Senapati, Kangpokpi, Ukhrul and Kakching districts of Manipur. Farmers were advised to follow recommended Package of Practices for the management of Fall Army Worm.

•

Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.

V. Seeds Position:

•

Except Soyabean, there is no deficiency of seeds for Kharif-2020. Germination standards have been relaxed to increase Soyabean seed availability.

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VI. Percentage Variations in the Wholesale Price Indices (WPI) of Major items

Table: 6

Period / Commodities Weight

Inflation (year on year)

May-2020 Apr-2020 May-2019

All Commodities 100 -3.21 -- 2.79

Primary Articles 22.62 -2.92 -0.79 6.77

(a) Food Articles 15.26 1.13 2.55 7.34

Cereals 2.82 1.97 2.74 7.90

Paddy 1.43 1.21 1.40 2.20

Wheat 1.03 6.04 7.26 6.35

Pulses 0.64 11.91 12.31 18.45

Gram 0.26 -1.30 0.14 17.62

Arhar 0.13 9.12 11.26 23.99

Moong 0.07 36.97 31.98 15.84

Masur 0.05 11.71 12.97 11.76

Urad 0.09 43.35 40.89 18.54

Vegetables 1.87 -12.48 2.22 36.59

Potato 0.28 52.25 59.40 -23.16

Onion 0.16 6.26 73.52 15.89

Fruits 1.60 0.46 -1.69 -3.64

Milk 4.44 5.44 5.87 1.13

Egg, Meat & Fish 2.40 1.94 -1.68 5.64

(b) Non-Food Articles 4.12 -3.53 -1.17 5.99

Oilseeds 1.12 3.79 1.49 7.26

Source: Office of Economic Adviser, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, New Delhi

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VII. Progressive Procurements as on 19 June2020

Table 7.1: Rice

(in lakh tonnes) State Target in Marketing

season 2019-20 (October– September)

Progressive Procurement as on 19.0 6.2020

In Marketing season 2019-2020

Andhra Pradesh 61.92 52.80 43.66

Telangana 91.92 74.63 51.84

Bihar 12.00 13.41 9.49

Chhattisgarh 48.00 46.56 40.20

Haryana 40.00 43.03 39.42

Kerala 4.50 4.73 4.63

Madhya Pradesh 14.00 17.40 14.62

Maharashtra 9.35 9.62 5.01

Odisha 43.50 45.52 41.58

Punjab 114.00 108.76 113.34

Tamil Nadu 13.44 16.72 11.85

Uttar Pradesh 33.00 37.90 32.33

Uttarakhand 5.00 6.81 4.62

West Bengal 26.00 15.08 16.88

All-India 524.25 497.68 432.00

Table 7.2: Wheat

(in lakh tonnes) State Target in Marketing

season 2020-21 (April– March)

Progressive Procurement as on 19.0 6.2020

Bihar 2.00 0.05 0.03

Gujarat 0.50 0.44 0.05

Haryana 95.00 73.98 93.21

Himachal Pradesh 0.33 0.03 0.01

Madhya Pradesh 130.00 129.28 73.70

Punjab 135.00 127.12 129.12

Rajasthan 20.66 19.86 14.02

Uttar Pradesh 55.00 32.26 36.39

Uttarakhand 2.00 0.37 0.42

All-India 440.66 383.51 347.07

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Annex I

Weather forecast for next two Weeks

Weather Systems and Associated Precipitation &Temperature Patterns

Week-1:18–24June 2020

• Active monsoon spell over eastern India and northeast India to continue during this week.

• Northwest India and Gujarat likely to get subdued rainfall during next 3-4 days.

• The monsoon circulation likely to strengthen from 2nd half of the week with formation of a circulation over Jharkhand accompanied with stronger easterly wind across north India.

• Conditions likely to become favourable, for further progress of monsoon, over north India from 22 June onwards.

• Southwest monsoon also likely to reach Delhi around 25th June

• Cumulative Rainfall for the week: Normal to above normal rainfall likely over eastern and northeastern India with below normal rainfall over northwest India, western parts and parts of peninsular India.

Week-2:25 June– 01 July 2020

• Cumulative Rainfall for the Week: The monsoon circulation may likely to pick up with fully well-defined monsoon trough around 25 June. Northern and northwestern India likely to get above normal rainfall, whereas Eastern, Central and adjoining southern peninsula will receive normal rainfall.

Maximum Temperatures

• During week-1 (18–24 June 2020):-Most parts of India likely to have below normal maximum temperature during the week except, some parts of Northwest India. It will be above normal by 1-3 degree C over plains of north-west India. Heat wave to severe Heat Wave likely over West Rajasthan and adjoining east Rajasthan during next 2-3-days.

• During week-2 (25 June – 01 July 2020):-Most parts of India is expected to have normal to below normal maximum temperature.