F. No. 3-1/ 2019-20-CFCC-ES

F. No. 3-1/ 2019-20-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)

Room No. 443 Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 23.03.2020

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD

ON 20.03.2020.

Summary observations of the Group on Agenda Items

• The All-India level rainfall during the week i.e. 12^th March – 18^th March, 2020 has been 93%

higher than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 273% in Central India, by 138% in North West India and by 12% in East & North East India but lower than LPA by 70% in South Peninsula.

• The cumulative rainfall in the country during the Pre-Monsoon season i.e. 1^st March, 2020 to 18^th March, 2020 has been by 88% higher than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 233% in Central India, by 108% in North West Indi and by 29% in East & North East India but lower than LPA by 14% in South Peninsula.

• For Pre-Monsoon season 1^st March, 2020 to 18^th March, 2020 out of 36 met sub-divisions, 26 met sub-divisions constituting 77% of the total area of the country has received large excess/excess rainfall, 03 met sub-divisions constituting 07% of the total area of the country has received normal rainfall, 06 met sub-divisions constituting 15% of the total area of the country has received deficient/large deficient rainfall and 01 met sub-division constituting 01% of the total area of the country has received no rainfall.

• Central Water Commission monitors 123 major reservoirs in the country which have total live capacity of 171.09 Billion Cubic Meter (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of these, 99 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 126.45 BCM have irrigation potential. Live storage in 123 major reservoirs as on 19^th March, 2020 has been 91.15 BCM as against 57.44 BCM on 19.03.2019 (last year) and 60.31 BCM of normal (average of the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 159% of last year’s storage and 151% of average of last 10 year’s storage.

• As per 2^nd Advance Estimates 2019-20, total area sown under Rabi crops in the country has been reported to be 625.23 lakh hectares as compared to 595.33 lakh hectares during 2018-19 (Final Estimates). This year’s area coverage so far is higher by 29.9 lakh ha. than the area coverage during the last year.

• The All Commodities inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the month of February, 2020 decreased to 2.26% from the level of 3.10% in the month of January, 2019. The inflation rate was 2.93% during the corresponding period of last year.

• The Primary Articles inflation rate for the month of February, 2020 decreased to 6.71% from the level of 10.01% in the month of January, 2019. The inflation rate was 4.77% during the corresponding period of last year.

• For food items it is decreased to 7.79% from the previous month level of 11.51% and for non- food items it decreased to 6.82% from the previous month’s level of 7.05%.

• The inflation for Pulses has decreased to 11.42% from the previous month’s level of 12.81%

and it was 10.80% during the corresponding period of last year.

• The inflation for milk has marginally increased to 4.48% from the previous month’s level of 3.70% and Eggs, Meat & Fish also marginally increased to 6.88% from the previous month’s level of 6.73%.

• All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 20.03.2020 for Kharif Marketing Season (KMS) 2019-20 is 389.52 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 369.50 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year.

Pre-Monsoon Season (March – May) during the week ending 18

^th

March, 2020

➢ Sub-Division wise Weekly Rainfall Forecast is shown in Table-1.1

• Rainfall during the week (12^th March to 18^th March, 2020) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 16 met sub-divisions, normal in 02 sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 10 sub-divisions and no rain in 08 met sub-division out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.

• Cumulative rainfall (01^st March, 2020 to 18^th March, 2020) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 26 met sub-divisions, normal in 03 met sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 06 sub-divisions and no rain in 01 met sub-division out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.

Table - 1.2: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country¹

LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.

Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Table -1.3: Category wise comparative distribution of Sub-division (cumulative rainfall) and All- India Percentage Rainfall Departure for the last five years since: 1^st March, 2020 to 18^th March, 2020

Source: IMD

➢ Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 20^th Mar., 2020 to 24^th March, 2020 is shown in Table 1.4.

➢ Forecast for next two weeks at Annex-I

1. North-west India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.

Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Goa and Gujarat.

South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Kerala, A & N islands and Lakshadweep.

East & North East India - Bihar, Jharkhand , West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.

Region Week Ending (18.03.2020) Cumulative (01.03.20 to 18.03.20) (in mm) Devi-

ation (%)

Cate- gory

(in mm) Devi- ation

(%)

Cate- gory

Actual Normal Actual Normal

North-West India 26.5 11.1 138 LE 55.4 26.6 108 LE

Central India 6.7 1.8 273 LE 17.3 5.2 233 LE

South Peninsular India 0.9 3.1 -70 LD 6.4 7.5 -14 N

East & North-East India 14.9 13.3 12 N 37.4 28.9 29 E

Country as a whole 12.9 6.7 93 LE 30.1 16.0 88 LE

No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall

For the period from 1^st March to 18 MAR

2015

16 MAR 2016

15 MAR 2017

21 MAR 2018

20 MAR 2019

18 MAR 2020 Large Excess

Excess Normal Total

- 26 01 27

- 20 04 24

11 06 05 22

08 01 04 13

02 02 05 09

20 06 03 29 Deficient

Large Deficient Scanty

No rain Total

05 - 03 01 09

06 - 04 02 12

05 03 - 06 14

03 18 - 02 23

13 08 - 06 27

02 04 - 01 07

Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00

TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36

All-India % Rainfall Deviation 197% 19% 39% (-) 35% (-) 27% 88%

Table: 1.1

Source: IMD

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2020 Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 19 MAR 20 MAR 21 MAR 22 MAR 23 MAR 24 MAR 25 MAR

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS D D D D D D D

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH SCT ^{TS #} FWS ^TS SCT ^TS SCT ISOL ISOL SCT ^TS 3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA ISOL ^TS SCT ^TS ISOL ^TS ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT ^TS 4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA D ISOL ISOL ^TS ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT 5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM ISOL ^{TS #} ISOL ^TS FWS ^TS FWS ^TS ISOL ISOL ISOL 6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL ISOL ^TS ISOL ^TS SCT ^TS ISOL ^TS ISOL D D

7 ODISHA FWS ^{TS #} SCT ^TS FWS ^TS SCT ^TS ISOL ^TS ISOL ^TS ISOL

8 JHARKHAND SCT ^{TS #} SCT ^TS FWS ^{TS #} ISOL ^TS D D D

9 BIHAR ISOL ^{TS #} D ISOL ^TS ISOL ^TS D D D

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL D ISOL ^TS D D D D

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH D D ISOL ^TS D D ISOL ISOL

12 UTTARAKHAND ISOL ISOL SCT ISOL ISOL SCT ^TS ISOL

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI ISOL ISOL ISOL ^TS D ISOL SCT ^{TS #} SCT ^{TS #}

14 PUNJAB ISOL ISOL SCT ^TS D ISOL SCT ^{TS #} SCT ^{TS #}

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH ISOL ISOL SCT ^TS ISOL SCT WS ^{TS #} SCT ^TS

16 JAMMU & KASHMIR ISOL ISOL FWS ^TS ISOL SCT WS ^TS WS ^TS

17 WEST RAJASTSAN D D ^TS D ^TS D ISOL ISOL ^TS SCT ^TS

18 EAST RAJASTSAN D ISOL ^TS ISOL ^TS D ISOL ISOL ^TS SCT ^TS

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH D ISOL ISOL D D ISOL ^TS SCT ^TS

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH SCT ^{TS #} ISOL ^TS ISOL D D ISOL ISOL

21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. D D D D D ISOL ISOL ^TS

22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU D D D D D ISOL ISOL

23 KONKAN & GOA D D D D D ISOL ISOL

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA D D D D D ISOL SCT ^{TS #}

25 MARATHAWADA ISOL D D D D ISOL SCT ^{TS #}

26 VIDARBHA SCT ^{TS #} ISOL ^TS ISOL D D ISOL ^TS SCT ^{TS #}

27 CHHATTISGARH SCT ^{TS #} SCT ^{TS #} ISOL ^TS D D ISOL ISOL ^TS

28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM ISOL ^TS ISOL ^TS ISOL ^TS ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

29 TELANGANA ISOL ^TS ISOL ^TS ISOL D D ISOL ISOL

30 RAYALASEEMA D D D D D D D

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL D D ISOL ISOL D ISOL ISOL

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA D D D D D ISOL ISOL

33 NORTS INT.KARNATAKA ISOL ^TS D D D D ISOL ISOL

34 SOUTS INT.KARNATAKA ISOL ISOL D D D ISOL ISOL

35 KERALA & MAHE ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ^TS ISOL

36 LAKSHADWEEP SCT D D D D SCT SCT

LEGENDS:

WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)

SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL

●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ^●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ^●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)

 FOG * SNOWFALL ^# HAILSTORM - COLD WAVE (-4.5 ^OC to -6.4 ^OC) -- SEVERE COLD WAVE (< -6.4)

$TSUNDERSTORM WITS SQUALL/GUSTY WIND ^DS/TSDUST/TSUNDERSTORM ⁺ HEAT WAVE (+4.5 ^OC to +6.4 ^OC) ⁺⁺ SEVERE HEAT WAVE (> +6.4)

Table: 1.4

2. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 19.03.2020)

• The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 123 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 171.09 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM), which is about 66.36% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.

• Live Storage in 123 major reservoirs decreased to 91.15 BCM from the previous week’s level of 93.51 BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than the last year’s storage position of 57.44 BCM and the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 60.31 BCM.

Table – 2.1 : For 123 major reservoirs of the country Period Storage as % of

FRL

Storage as % of last year

Storage as % of 10 year’s average level

Current Week Last Week

53 55

159 155

151 148

The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 34% on 19/03/2019, 30% on 19/03/2018, 37% on 19/03/2017 and 27% on 19/03/2016.

Source: CWC

• There were 115 reservoirs having storage more than 80% of normal storage, 01 reservoir having storage between 51% to 80%, 01 reservoir having storage between 31% to 50%, 06 reservoirs having storage upto 30% of Normal Storage and 03 reservoir having no live storage.

Source: Central Water Commission

3. Fertilizer Position:

Table – 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP during Rabi 2019-20 (As on 20.03.2020)

(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP

Opening Stock as on 01.10.2019 365 1377 377 1269 140

Requirement for Oct,2019 to March, 2020 17904 5208 1773 5186 2567 Estimated Requirement during March, 2020 1353 469 214 752 342 Cumulative Receipt upto 20.03.2020 17617 4526 1099 4983 1660 Cumulative Availability upto 20.03.2020 17982 5903 1476 6252 1800

Cumulative Sales upto 20.03.2020 17033 4435 1201 4760 1635

Closing Stock as on 20.03.2020 949 1468 275 1492 165

Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW) / Deptt. of Fertilizer

4. Pest & Diseases:

• Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level (ETL).

• Yellow rust reported trace to moderate intensity on Wheat in Jammu, Samba, Kathua district of Jammu & Kashmir.

5. Availability position of seeds and fertilizers has been found satisfactory.

6.

Percentage Variations in the Wholesale Price Indices (WPI) of Major items

Table: 6.1

Inflation (year on year)

Period / Commodities Weight Feb-2020 Jan-2020 Feb-2019

All Commodities 100 2.26 3.10 2.93

Primary Articles 22.62 6.71 10.01 4.77

(a) Food Articles 15.26 7.79 11.51 4.21

Cereals 2.82 5.21 7.73 9.76

Paddy 1.43 3.71 4.17 3.37

Wheat 1.03 6.42 8.91 12.29

Pulses 0.64 11.42 12.81 10.80

Gram 0.26 -3.07 -1.22 8.76

Arhar 0.13 14.37 18.94 14.68

Moong 0.07 22.15 20.35 13.45

Masur 0.05 13.59 16.00 6.06

Urad 0.09 44.26 46.40 10.57

Vegetables 1.87 29.97 52.72 6.58

Potato 0.28 60.73 87.84 21.55

Onion 0.16 162.30 293.37 -58.00

Fruits 1.60 1.00 3.72 -3.65

Milk 4.44 4.48 3.70 1.64

Egg, Meat & Fish 2.40 6.88 6.73 6.76

(b) Non-Food Articles 4.12 6.82 7.05 2.07

Oilseeds 1.12 4.63 9.02 6.30

Fuel & Power 13.15 3.38 3.42 1.72

7

. All India Crop Situations – 2

^nd

Adv. Est.(2019-20) vis-à-vis Final Est. 2018-19)

Table: 7.1

8.

Progressive procurement of Rice as on 20.03.2020

Table: 8.1

(lakh tonnes)

State Target in

marketing season 2019-20 (Oct. – Sept.)

Progressive Procurement as on 20.03.2020

In Marketing season 2019-2020

In Marketing season 2018-2019

Andhra Pradesh 40.00 32.18 29.70

Telangana 30.00 31.56 27.08

Bihar 12.00 8.34 6.84

Chhattisgarh 48.00 39.71 40.20

Haryana 40.00 43.03 39.42

Kerala 2.50 1.76 1.58

Madhya Pradesh 14.00 15.35 12.75

Maharashtra 6.00 6.75 3.65

Odisha 34.00 34.58 33.80

Punjab 114.00 108.76 113.34

Tamil Nadu 8.00 12.50 9.89

Uttar Pradesh 33.00 37.17 32.33

Uttrakhand 5.00 6.81 4.62

West Bengal 23.00 8.54 12.63

All-India 416.00 389.52 369.50

Annexure I Rainfall for next two Weeks

Weather systems and associated Precipitation & temperature pattern during week 1 (19^th to 25^th March, 2020) and Week 2 (26^th March to 01^st April, 2020)

Week 1: (19^th to 25^th March, 2020)

• Due to strengthening of anti-cyclone over Bay of Bengal and consequent moisture feeding over East & adjoining Central India, light/moderate scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity is very likely over Odisha, Jharkhand and West Bengal & Sikkim during 1^st half of the week with peak intensity on 21^st March and light isolated rainfall thereafter.

Light/moderate Isolated to scattered rainfall activity is very likely over East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh during the same period with peak intensity on 20^th March.

• Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning/hail/gusty winds (speed reaching 30-40 kmph) is likely over Odisha, Jharkhand and West Bengal & Sikkim during 1st half of the week with maximum intensity on 19^th March; and over Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and East Madhya Pradesh during 19^th -20^th March; Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning & gusty winds (speed reaching 30-40 kmph) likely over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam and Telangana during 19^th -21^st March.

• Under the influence of a fresh Western Disturbance from the night of 20^th March, light to moderate scattered rainfall/snowfall very likely over Western Himalayan Region on 21st March.

• Thereafter another Western Disturbance is likely to affect Western Himalayan Region from 23rd March, 2020 onwards and very likely to cause scattered to fairly widespread rainfall/snowfall over Western Himalayan Region and isolated to scattered rainfall over plains of northwest India.

• Isolated to scattered rainfall is also likely to continue over northeastern states during the week.

• Cumulatively, near normal to above normal rainfall very likely over Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, West Bengal & Sikkim, Mizoram & Tripura, Kerala and South Interior Karnataka; below normal rainfall likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam &

Meghalaya, Tamilnadu and Nicobar Islands during week 1

Rainfall for week 2: (26^th March to 01^st April, 2020)

• During week 2, above normal rainfall likely over Kerala & Karnataka; near normal over Western Himalayan Region and below normal over northeastern states and Andaman &

Nicobar Islands.

Maximum Temperature for week 1 & 2: (19^th March to 01^st April, 2020)

• Due to ongoing rainfall/thunderstorm activity over most parts of the country, maximum temperatures are likely to be below normal by 2-4°C over most parts of the country outside Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh & Gilgit-Baltistan, Himachal Pradesh and Tamilnadu , where these are likely to be above normal by 1-2°C during week 1.

• During week 2, there is likely slight rise in maximum temperatures, however these are likely to below normal by 1-3°C over Central and adjoining east & south Peninsular India.