F. No. 3-1/ 2019-20-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443 Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 11.03.2020
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD
ON 06.03.2020.
Summary observations of the Group on Agenda Items
The All-India level rainfall during the week i.e. 27th February to 04th March, 2020 has been 8%
lower than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 15% in Central India, by 13% in East & North East India and by 6% in South Peninsula but lower than LPA by 26% in North West India.
The cumulative rainfall in the country during the winter season i.e. 1st January, 2020 to 29th February, 2020 has been by 1% lower than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 87%
in Central India but lower than LPA by 37% in South Peninsula, by 14% in North West India and by 8% in East & North East India.
For winter season 1st January, 2020 to 29th February, 2020 out of 36 met sub-divisions, 10 met sub-divisions constituting 33% of the total area of the country has received large excess/excess rainfall, 08 met sub-divisions constituting 23% of the total area of the country has received normal rainfall, 16 met sub-divisions constituting 40% of the total area of the country has received deficient/large deficient rainfall and 02 met sub-divisions constituting 4% of the total area of the country has received no rainfall.
Central Water Commission monitors 123 major reservoirs in the country which have total live capacity of 171.09 Billion Cubic Meter (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of these, 99 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 126.45 BCM have irrigation potential. Live storage in 123 major reservoirs as on 05th March, 2020 has been 97.49 BCM as against 62.85 BCM on 05.03.2019 (last year) and 65.95 BCM of normal (average of the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 155% of last year’s storage and 148% of average of last 10 year’s storage.
As per 2nd Advance Estimates 2019-20, total area sown under Rabi crops in the country has been reported to be 625.23 lakh hectares as compared to 595.33 lakh hectares during 2018-19 (Final Estimates). This year’s area coverage so far is higher by 29.9 lakh ha. than the area coverage during the last year.
All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 06.03.2020 for Kharif Marketing Season (KMS) 2019-20 is 378.41 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 362.28 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year.
1. Winter Season (Jan. – Feb.) during the week ending 29th February, 2020
Sub-Division wise Weekly Rainfall Forecast is shown in Table-1.1
Rainfall during the week (27th February to 04th March, 2020) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 18 met sub-divisions, normal in 03 sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 10 sub-divisions and no rain in 05 met sub-division out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
Cumulative rainfall (01st January, 2020 to 29th February, 2020) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 10 met sub-divisions, normal in 08 met sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 16 sub-divisions and no rain in 02 met sub-division out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
Table - 1.2: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country1
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table -1.3: Category wise comparative distribution of Sub-division (cumulative rainfall) and All- India Percentage Rainfall Departure for the last five years since: 1st Jan., 2020 to 29th Feb, 2020
Source: IMD
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 06th Mar., 2020 to 10th March, 2020 is shown in Table 1.4.
Forecast for next two weeks at Annex-I
1. North-west India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.
Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Goa and Gujarat.
South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Kerala, A & N islands and Lakshadweep.
East & North East India - Bihar, Jharkhand , West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Region Week Ending (04.03.2020) Cumulative (01.01.20 to 29.02.20) (in mm) Devi-
ation (%)
Cate- gory
(in mm) Devi- ation
(%)
Cate- gory
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West India 6.8 9.2 -26 D 68.1 78.9 -14 N
Central India 2.1 1.8 15 N 28.5 15.2 87 LE
South Peninsular India 1.8 1.7 6 N 10.2 16.2 -37 D
East & North-East India 9.5 8.4 13 N 48.1 52.1 -8 N
Country as a whole 4.7 5.1 -8 N 40.2 40.8 -1 N
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1st October to 28 FEB
2015
29 FEB 2016
28 FEB 2017
28 FEB 2018
28 FEB 2019
29 FEB 2020 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 09 09 18
- 03 03 06
02 03 05 10
01 00 02 03
09 04 03 16
05 05 08 18 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
12 - 06 00 18
11 - 16 03 30
08 12 - 06 26
10 22 - 01 33
13 05 - 02 20
07 09 - 02 18
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 9% (-) 57% (-) 5% (-) 63% 24% (-)1%
Table: 1.1
Source: IMD
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2020 Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 05 MAR 06 MAR 07 MAR 08 MAR 09 MAR 10 MAR 11 MAR
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS ISOL ISOL D D D D D
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH SCT SCT FWS TS SCT SCT SCT TS FWS TS
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA SCT TS # SCT TS # FWS TS # SCT TS ISOL D ISOL 4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA SCT TS SCT TS SCT TS SCT TS ISOL D ISOL 5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM FWS TS # FWS TS # FWS TS ISOL D ISOL SCT
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL FWS TS FWS TS SCT TS ISOL D ISOL SCT TS
7 ODISHA FWS TS # FWS● SCT TS ISOL D ISOL TS ISOL TS
8 JHARKHAND FWS TS # WS TS # SCT TS D D SCT TS FWS TS
9 BIHAR ISOL TS # FWS TS # ISOL D D ISOL SCT TS
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH FWS TS # WS TS # SCT D D SCT SCT TS #
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH FWS● TS # WS● TS # ISOL D D SCT TS FWS TS 12 UTTARAKHAND FWS TS # WS●/* TS # FWS TS # D D ISOL FWS TS # 13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI WS● TS # WS● TS # ISOL D D SCT TS FWS TS #
14 PUNJAB WS●TS # WS TS # ISOL D D ISOL WS TS #
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH WS●/* TS # WS●/* TS # FWS ISOL D ISOL FWS TS # 16 JAMMU & KASHMIR WS●/* TS # WS●/*TS # WS●/* SCT ISOL ISOL FWS TS #
17 WEST RAJASTSAN FWS TS # ISOL TS # D D D ISOL TS ISOL TS #
18 EAST RAJASTSAN SCT TS # SCT TS # ISOL D D ISOL TS ISOL TS #
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL TS # ISOL TS # D D D ISOL D
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL SCT TS # ISOL D D SCT TS # D
21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. ISOL D D D D D D
22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU ISOL D D D D D D
23 KONKAN & GOA D D D D D D D
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA D D D D D D D
25 MARATHAWADA D D D D D D D
26 VIDARBHA ISOL TS ISOL TS # D D ISOL ISOL D
27 CHHATTISGARH SCT TS # FWS TS ISOL D ISOL SCT TS # ISOL TS #
28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM ISOL SCT TS ISOL TS D D D D
29 TELANGANA ISOL ISOL TS ISOL D D D D
30 RAYALASEEMA ISOL ISOL ISOL D D D D
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOL● ISOL ISOL ISOL D D D
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA D D D D D D D
33 NORTS INT.KARNATAKA D D D D D D D
34 SOUTS INT.KARNATAKA ISOL ISOL D D D D D
35 KERALA & MAHE SCT● ISOL ISOL ISOL D ISOL D
36 LAKSHADWEEP SCT SCT D D D D SCT
LEGENDS:
WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL
●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
FOG * SNOWFALL # HAILSTORM - COLD WAVE (-4.5 OC to -6.4 OC) -- SEVERE COLD WAVE (< -6.4)
$TSUNDERSTORM WITS SQUALL/GUSTY WIND DS/TSDUST/TSUNDERSTORM + HEAT WAVE (+4.5 OC to +6.4 OC) ++ SEVERE HEAT WAVE (> +6.4)
Table: 1.4
2. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 05.03.2020)
The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 123 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 171.09 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM), which is about 66.36% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
Live Storage in 123 major reservoirs decreased to 97.49 BCM from the previous week’s level of 101.87 BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than the last year’s storage position of 62.85 BCM and the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 65.95 BCM.
Table – 2.1 : For 123 major reservoirs of the country Period Storage as % of
FRL
Storage as % of last year
Storage as % of 10 year’s average level
Current Week Last Week
57 60
155 156
148 149
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 37% on 05/03/2019, 35% on 05/03/2018, 40% on 05/03/2017 and 30% on 05/03/2016.
Source: CWC
There were 115 reservoirs having storage more than 80% of normal storage, 01 reservoirs having storage between 51% to 80%, 02 reservoirs having storage between 31% to 50%, 05 reservoirs having storage upto 30% of Normal Storage and 02 reservoir having no live storage.
Source: Central Water Commission
3. Fertilizer Position:
Table – 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP during Rabi 2019-20 (As on 06.03.2020)
(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.10.2019 365 1377 377 1269 140
Requirement for Oct,2019 to March, 2020 17904 5208 1773 5186 2567 Estimated Requirement during March, 2020 1353 469 231 741 342 Cumulative Receipt upto 06.03.2020 16468 4297 1024 4468 1507 Cumulative Availability upto 06.03.2020 16833 5674 1401 5737 1647
Cumulative Sales upto 06.03.2020 16109 4243 1073 4453 1485
Closing Stock as on 06.03.2020 724 1431 328 1284 162
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW) / Deptt. of Fertilizer
4. Pest & Diseases:
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level (ETL).
Rugose Spiralling Whitefly reported at low to moderate intensity in 20 hectare area on Coconut in Mandya district of Karnataka.
5. Availability position of seeds and fertilizers has been found satisfactory.
6
. All India Crop Situations – 2
ndAdv. Est.(2019-20) vis-à-vis Final Est. 2018-19)
Table: 6.17.
Progressive procurement of Rice as on 06.03.2020
Table: 7.1
(lakh tonnes)
State Target in
marketing season 2019-20 (Oct. – Sept.)
Progressive Procurement as on 06.03.2020
In Marketing season 2019-2020
In Marketing season 2018-2019
Andhra Pradesh 40.00 29.96 28.16
Telangana 30.00 31.57 27.08
Bihar 12.00 5.27 4.51
Chhattisgarh 48.00 40.24 40.20
Haryana 40.00 43.03 39.42
Kerala 2.50 1.56 1.07
Madhya Pradesh 14.00 15.35 12.75
Maharashtra 6.00 5.73 3.38
Odisha 34.00 32.86 33.07
Punjab 114.00 108.76 113.34
Tamil Nadu 8.00 9.61 8.40
Uttar Pradesh 33.00 37.17 32.33
Uttrakhand 5.00 6.81 4.65
West Bengal 23.00 8.52 12.59
All-India 416.00 378.41 362.28
Annexure-I Rainfall for next two Weeks
Weather systems and associated Precipitation & temperature pattern during week 1 (06th March – 12th March, 2020) and week 2 (13th March – 19th March, 2020)
Rainfall for week 1: (06th March – 12th March, 2020)
The present WD and the induced low pressure area could continue to cause fairly widespread to widespread rain / snow over western Himalayan region [(WHR) comprising Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand] on 06th & 07th March and over northwestern parts of Jammu & Kashmir till 8th March. Fairly widespread rains are also likely over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, north Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh on 06th & 07th March. This weather could be accompanied with Thunderstorms, Lightning, Gusty winds (of the order of 30-40 kmph) and isolated hailstorms. Since the intensity of the system would be at its peak on 6th, moisture & wind convergence could result in isolated events of heavy rainfall over WHR as well as over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi and west Uttar Pradesh on 6th/ 7th March.
Presence of a north-south trough in the lower levels and moisture convergence could result in scattered to fairly widespread / widespread rainfall over parts of north Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, north Odisha and west Bengal & Sikkim during 6th & 7th March, with chance of moderate to severe Thunderstorms / Lightning and isolated Hailstorms.
Scattered to fairly widespread rain / Thundershowers could also occur over northeastern States (Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram &
Tripura) during 6th – 8th March.
Isolated to scattered rain / Thundershowers could occur over Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, interior Karnataka, Kerala, interior Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh mainly during 6th – 8th March.
Subsequently, a fresh WD is likely to start affecting WHR and plains of northwest India from 10th March till 14th March. The peak activity due to this system could be on the last 2 days of the week.
Thus towards the end of week-1, the entire WHR could once again experience widespread rain/snow with isolated heavy falls and isolated to scattered Thunderstorms, Lightning, Hailstorms & Gusty winds. Plains of northwest India comprising Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, north Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh could witness scattered rainfall with isolated Hailstorms, Thunderstorms, Lightning & gusty wind during 11th & 12th March.
Scattered to fairly widespread rain / thundershowers including Lightning are likely over west Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Jharkhand and Odisha during 10th - 12th March and isolated activity of similar nature over Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha, during the same period.
Fairly widespread to widespread rain/ Thundershowers, Lightning & Gusty winds are also likely over Arunachal Pradesh during 10th – 12th March.
Cumulative precipitation is likely to be above normal over northwest India (Jammu &
Kashmir, Ladakh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, west Uttar Pradesh), west Bengal, Sikkim and Ghat sections of Kerala & Tamil Nadu and near normal over the rest of India.
Rainfall for week 2: (13th March – 19th March, 2020)
The rainfall activity depicted towards the end of week-1 above is likely to continue in the initial couple of days of week-2 over WHR & plains of northwest India as well as over east
& northeast India. The intensity however could reduce substantially over northwest India with probable increase over east & northeast India during 13th & 14th March.
During the above period, the impact of rain / thundershowers over eastern India (Jharkhand, Bihar, north Odisha and west Bengal & Sikkim) could be significant when isolated heavy falls, Thunderstorm & hailstorm likelihood increases further over the region around 13th & 14th March. Arunachal Pradesh and some parts of Assam is also likely to undergo similar weather pattern during 13th – 15th March.
A chance of a fresh WD affecting WHR is only towards the end of the week.
Isolated to scattered rain / thundershowers could occur over southern parts of peninsular India and central India on most of the days.
Cumulatively, below normal rainfall is likely over Jammu & Kashmir, south Kerala and Nicobar Islands and near normal rainfall over the rest of the country.
Minimum Temperatures for week 1: (06th March – 12th March, 2020))
Below normal Night minimum temperatures are likely to prevail over Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Telangana and Arunachal Pradesh and above normal over the rest of the mainland.
Minimum Temperatures for week 2: (13th March – 19th March, 2020)
Below normal Night minimum temperatures are likely to prevail over major parts of the Indian mainland, outside some parts of coastal & south interior Karnataka, interior Tamil Nadu and Nagaland and Manipur, where they are likely to be above normal on a few days.
Maximum Temperatures for week 1: (06th March – 12th March, 2020)
Below normal day maximum temperatures are likely to prevail over major parts of India outside Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh and coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal where they are likely to remain above normal for a few days.
Maximum Temperatures for week 2: (13th March – 19th March, 2020)
Below normal day maximum temperatures are likely to continue over major part of the Indian mainland, with slight warming as compared to week 1. However, above normal day temperatures are likely to prevail over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Uttarkahan, Kutch, Arunachal Pradesh, east Assam, Nagaland and coastal areas of Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, Karaikal & Puducherry.
