F. No. 3-1/ 2019-20-CFCC-ES

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F. No. 3-1/ 2019-20-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)

Room No. 443 Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 25.05.2020

Subject: Weekly Status report on Crop Prospects as on 22May 2020.

Summary

• All-India level rainfall during the week, 14–20 May 2020, has been 12% lower than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, rainfall has been higher than LPA by 47% in Central India and by 8% in South Peninsula, but lower than LPA by 46% in North West India and by 25% in East and North East India.

• Cumulative rainfall in the country during the Pre-Monsoon season, 1March – 20 May 2020, has been 15% higher than LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, rainfall during this period has been higher than LPA by 139% in Central India, by 33% in North West India and by 4% in South Peninsula, but lower than LPA by 18% in East and North East India.

• Out of 36 MET sub-divisions, 21 MET sub-divisions constituting 65% of the total area of the country have received large excess/excess rainfall, 09 MET sub-divisions constituting 20% of the total area have received normal rainfall, and 06 MET sub-divisions constituting 15% of the total area have received deficient/large deficient rainfall.

• Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 123 major reservoirs in the country which have total live capacity of 171.09 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of these, 99 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 126.45 BCM have irrigation potential. Live storage in 123 major reservoirs as on 21May 2020 was 60.73 BCM as against 36.15 BCM on the same day last year (21 May 2019) and 37.58 BCM of normal (average of the last 10 years) storage.

Current year’s storage is 168% of last year’s storage and 162% of last 10 year’s average storage.

• As per 3^rdAdvance Estimates 2019-20, total area sown under Rabi crops in the country has been reported to be 621.15 lakh hectares as compared to 595.33 lakh hectares during 2018-19 (Final Estimates). This year’s area coverage is higher by 25.82 lakh hectares than the area coverage of last year.

• All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 22May 2020 for Kharif Marketing Season (KMS) 2019-20 is 462.56 lakh tonnes against procurement of 415.13 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year.

• All-India progressive procurement of Wheat as on 22May 2020 for Rabi Marketing Season (RMS) 2020-21 is 319.95 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 326.15 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year.

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Pre-Monsoon Season (March–May) during the week ending 20 May 2020 I. Rainfall

Table 1.1: Sub-Division-wise Weekly Rainfall Forecast for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST &Wx. WARNINGS-2020

Sl. No. MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 21 MAY 22 MAY 23 MAY 24 MAY 25 MAY 26 MAY 27 MAY 1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS FWS SCT SCT SCT SCT ISOL ISOL

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH WS^●● FWS^● FWS WS^TS● WS^TS● WS^TS● WS^TS●

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA WS^●●● FWS FWS WS^TS● WS^TS● WS^TS● WS^TS●●

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA WS^● FWS SCT FWS FWS^TS● FWS^TS● WS^TS●

5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM WS^● FWS FWS^TS● WS^TS● WS^TS● FWS^TS● FWS^TS 6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL SCT^TS ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT^TS ISOL^TS ISOL^TS

7 ODISHA ISOL D D ISOL ISOL^TS ISOL ISOL

8 JHARKHAND ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL^TS ISOL^TS ISOL^TS ISOL^TS

9 BIHAR ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL^TS ISOL^TS ISOL^TS SCT^TS

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH D D D⁺ D⁺ D⁺ D⁺ ISOL⁺

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH D D D⁺ D⁺ D⁺ D⁺ ISOL⁺

12 UTTARAKHAND D D ISOL^TS ISOL ISOL ISOL^TS ISOL^TS

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI D ISOL^TS ISOL^TS D D D D⁺

14 PUNJAB D ISOL^TS ISOL^TS D D D⁺ D⁺

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH D ISOL^TS SCT^TS# ISOL ISOL ISOL^TS ISOL^TS 16 JAMMU & K. AND LADAKH D SCT^TS# FWS^TS# ISOL ISOL ISOL^TS ISOL^TS 17 WEST RAJASTSAN D⁺ D⁺^DS D⁺^DS D⁺ D⁺ D⁺^DS D⁺^DS

18 EAST RAJASTSAN D D⁺^DS D⁺^DS D⁺ D⁺ D⁺^DS D⁺^DS

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH D⁺ D⁺ D⁺ D⁺ D D D⁺

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH D D⁺ D⁺ D⁺ D D D

21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. D D D D D D⁺ D⁺

22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU D D D D D D⁺ D⁺

23 KONKAN & GOA D D D D D D D

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA D D D D D D⁺ D⁺

25 MARATHAWADA D D D D D D⁺ D⁺

26 VIDARBHA D⁺ D⁺ D⁺ D⁺ D D D⁺

27 CHHATTISGARH D D D D D ISOL ISOL

28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM D⁺ D⁺ ISOL⁺ D D ISOL ISOL

29 TELANGANA D⁺ D⁺ D⁺ D⁺ ISOL ISOL ISOL^TS

30 RAYALASEEMA D D⁺ D⁺ D⁺ ISOL ISOL^TS ISOL^TS

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOL⁺^TS ISOL⁺ ISOL⁺ ISOL⁺ SCT^TS^● ISOL^TS^● ISOL^TS^●

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA D⁺ D⁺ D⁺ D ISOL ISOL ISOL

34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA ISOL^TS ISOL ISOL SCT^TS● SCT^TS● SCT^TS●● SCT^TS●●

35 KERALA & MAHE WS^TS● FWS^TS SCT^TS FWS^TS● FWS^TS SCT^TS● FWS^TS

36 LAKSHADWEEP WS^TS● FWS^TS SCT^TS SCT^TS SCT^TS SCT SCT^TS

LEGENDS:

WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%) SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL

●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ^●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ^●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)

FOG * SNOWFALL ^#HAILSTORM

- COLD WAVE (-4.5^OC to -6.4

OC)

-- SEVERE COLD WAVE (< -

6.4)

$TSUNDERSTORM WITH SQUALL/GUSTY WINDS ^DS/TSDUST/THUNDERSTORM ⁺HEAT WAVE (+4.5^OC to +6.4

OC)

⁺⁺ SEVERE HEAT WAVE (>

+6.4) Source : IMD

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• Rainfall during the week (14 to 20 May 2020): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 09 met sub-divisions, normal in 09 sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 17 sub-divisions and no rain in 01 met sub-division out of 36 met sub-divisions.

• Cumulative rainfall (1 March 2020 to 20 May 2020): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 21 met sub-divisions, normal in 09 met sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 06 sub- divisions out of 36 met sub-divisions.

Table 1.2: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country¹:

Region Week Ending (20.05.20) Cumulative (01.03.20 to 20.05.2020) (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category

Actual Normal Actual Normal

North-West India 4.0 7.5 -46 D 135.1 101.8 33 E

Central India 6.8 4.6 47 E 69.4 29.0 139 LE

South Peninsular India 19.8 18.3 8 N 96.1 92.4 4 N

East & North-East India 31.2 41.7 -25 D 246.7 300.6 -18 N

Country as a whole 12.4 14.1 -12 N 123.1 107.1 15 N

LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N:Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.

Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Table1.3: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All- India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 1 March 2020 to 13 May 2020

No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall

For the period from 1 March to

20 MAY 2015

18 MAY 2016

17 MAY 2017

23 MAY 2018

22 MAY 2019

20 MAY 2020 Large Excess

Excess Normal Total

- 29 06 35

- 03 14 17

01 05 11 17

02 06 11 19

02 03 07 12

18 03 09 30 Deficient

Large Deficient Scanty

No rain Total

01 - 00 00 01

15 - 04 00 19

12 07 - 00 19

13 04 - 00 17

14 10 - 00 24

06 00 - 00 06

Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00

TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36

All-India % Rainfall Deviation 53% (-) 6% (-) 4% (-) 13% (-) 23% 15%

Source: IMD

1. North-west India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.

Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Goa and Gujarat.

South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Kerala, A & N islands and Lakshadweep.

East & North East India - Bihar, Jharkhand , West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.

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Table 1.4: Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 22 May 2020 to 26 May 2020:

• Forecast for next two weeks at Annex-I.

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II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 21 May 2020)

• Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 123 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 171.09 BCM, which is about 66.36% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.

• Live Storage in 123 major reservoirs decreased to 60.73 BCM from the previous week’s level of 64.60 BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than last year’s storage position of 36.15 BCM and the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 37.58 BCM.

Table 2.1: For 123 major reservoirs of the country Period Storage as % of

FRL

Storage as % of Last Year

Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level

Current Week 35 168 162

Last Week 38 168 165

The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 21% on 21-05-2019, 19% on 21-05-2018, 23% on 21- 05-2017 and 17% on 21-05-2016.

Source: CWC

• There were 109 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 08 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, nil reservoir with storage between 31% to 50% and 06 reservoirs with storage upto 30% of Normal Storage, out of which 04 reservoirs had no live storage.

Source: Central Water Commission

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III. Fertilizer Position:

Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Kharif 2020 (As on 21.05.2020)

(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP Opening Stock as on 01.04.2020 613 799 232 1,084 130 Requirement for April 2020 to Sept 2020 16,688 5,161 2,022 5,295 2,642 Estimated Requirement during May,2020 2,448 814 267 695 407

Cumulative Receipt upto 21.05.2020 3432 828 241 890 547

Cumulative Availability upto 21.05.2020 4045 1627 473 1974 677

Cumulative Sales upto21.05.2020 3408 1067 235 1018 546

Closing Stock as on 21.05.2020 637 560 238 956 131

Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer

IV. Pest & Diseases:

• Fall Army Worm reported at moderate intensity in 50 hectare area on Maize crop in Imphal West, Imphal East, Bishnupur and Thoubal districts of Manipur. Farmers were advised to follow recommended Package of Practices for the management of Fall Army Worm.

• There is no report of crop damage due to locust attack in Rajasthan, MP & Gujarat. So far Locust Warning Organisation (LWO) has controlled in the area of 34303 ha up to 20.5.2020 in the states of Rajasthan, Punjab, MP & Gujarat.

• Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level (ETL).

V. Seeds Position:

• No deficiency of seed for Kharif-2020 reported.

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VI. All India Crop Situation: 3

^rd

Adv. Est. (2019-20) vis-à-vis Final Est. (2018-19)

Table 6.1: All-India Rabi Crop Situation

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VII. Progressive Procurements as on 22 May 2020

Table 7.1: Rice

(in lakh tonnes) State Target in Marketing

season 2019-20 (October– September)

Progressive Procurement as on 22.05.2020

In Marketing season 2019-2020

Andhra Pradesh 61.92 45.55 39.10

Telangana 91.92 65.24 48.08

Bihar 12.00 13.41 9.49

Chhattisgarh 48.00 39.71 40.20

Haryana 40.00 43.03 39.42

Kerala 4.50 4.53 4.51

Madhya Pradesh 14.00 17.40 14.62

Maharashtra 9.35 8.49 4.29

Odisha 43.50 37.10 34.76

Punjab 114.00 108.76 113.34

Tamil Nadu 13.44 15.61 11.61

Uttar Pradesh 33.00 37.90 32.33

Uttarakhand 5.00 6.81 4.62

West Bengal 26.00 14.92 16.33

All-India 523.92 462.56 415.13

Table 7.2: Wheat

(in lakh tonnes) State Target in Marketing

season 2020-21 (April– March)

Progressive Procurement as on 22.05.2020

Bihar 2.00 0.03 0.01

Gujarat 0.50 0.19 0.05

Haryana 95.00 69.15 93.21

Himachal Pradesh 0.50 0.03 0.01

Madhya Pradesh 100.00 98.70 66.42

Punjab 135.00 124.78 127.42

Rajasthan 17.00 8.95 11.10

Uttar Pradesh 55.00 17.71 27.41

Uttarakhand 2.00 0.29 0.39

All-India 407.00 319.95 326.15

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Annex I

Weather forecast for next two Weeks

Weather Systems and Associated Precipitation &Temperature Patterns

Week-1: 21-27 May 2020

• Mainly dry weather likely to prevail over most parts of India except Western Himalayan Region, northeastern and southwester parts of India and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Under the influence of present depression which will further weaken to a low pressure area by next 12-hours and likely to move across northeastern states during next 24-hour as a weak system, heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls very likely at isolated places over northeastern states of India; heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh; and heavy rainfall at isolated places over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal

& Sikkim and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura during next 24 hours. Squally wind (speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph) very likely over West Assam & Meghalaya till 2st May evening and gradual reduction thereafter. But scattered to fairly widespread rainfall /thunderstorms likely to continue over these areas during remaining days of the week.

• Under the influence of feeble Western Disturbance at mid-tropospheric levels isolated to scattered rain/thundershower very likely over Western Himalayan Region during 23-25 May

• Cumulatively Rainfall for the week: Excess rainfall very likely mainly over northeastern states and across southwestern parts of peninsular India during the week.

Week-2: 28 May – 03 June 2020

• Cumulative Rainfall for the Week: Excess rainfall likely across over Andaman and Nicobar areas and peninsular India, eastern parts and Northeastern States and peninsular India with mainly dry weather likely over rest parts of the country.

Maximum Temperatures

• During week-1 (21- 27 May 2020):- Heat wave very likely to occur over Rajasthan during 21-25 May, West Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Telangana during 21-24 May; over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, North Interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry

& Karaikal during 21-23 May, over East Madhya Pradesh and Rayalseema during 22-24 May, over Uttar Pradesh during 22-25 May 2020.

• Average Maximum temperatures of Week 1 are likely to be above normal by 4°C or more over Rajasthan, central and southeastern part of India.

• During week-2 (28 May–03 June 2020):-maximum temperatures are likely to be 2°C above normal over central parts of India.

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