F. No. 3-1/ 2019-20-CFCC-ES

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F. No. 3-1/ 2019-20-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)

Room No. 443 Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 30.05.2020

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP

HELD ON 29.05.2020.

Summary

• All-India level rainfall during the week, 21–27 May 2020, has been 53% higher than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, rainfall has been higher than LPA by 186%in East and North East India but lower than LPA by 79% in North West India, by 64% in Central India and by 62% in South Peninsula.

• Cumulative rainfall in the country during the Pre-Monsoon season, 01 March– 27 May 2020, has been 20% higher than LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, rainfall during this period has been higher than LPA by 109% in Central India, by 24% in North West India and by 9% in East and North East India, but lower than LPA by 7% in South Peninsula.

• Out of 36 MET sub-divisions, 20 MET sub-divisions constituting 59% of the total area of the country have received large excess/excess rainfall, 10 MET sub-divisions constituting 28% of the total area have received normal rainfall, and 06 MET sub-divisions constituting 13% of the total area have received deficient/large deficient rainfall.

• Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 123 major reservoirs in the country which have total live capacity of 171.09 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of these, 99 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 126.45 BCM have irrigation potential. Live storage in 123 major reservoirs as on 28 May 2020 was 58.03 BCM as against 34.11 BCM on the same day last year (28 May 2019) and 34.70 BCM of normal (average of the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 170% of last year’s storage and 167% of last 10 year’s average storage.

• As per 3^rdAdvance Estimates 2019-20, total area sown under Rabi crops in the country has been reported to be 621.15 lakh hectares as compared to 595.33 lakh hectares during 2018- 19 (Final Estimates). This year’s area coverage is higher by 25.82 lakh hectares than the area coverage of last year.

• All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 29 May 2020 for Kharif Marketing Season (KMS) 2019-20 is 471.60 lakh tonnes against procurement of 405.07 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year.

• All-India progressive procurement of Wheat as on 29 May 2020 for Rabi Marketing Season (RMS) 2020-21 is 354.09 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 340.29 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year.

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Pre-Monsoon Season (March–May) during the week ending 27 May 2020 I. Rainfall

Table 1.1: Sub-Division-wise Weekly Rainfall Forecast for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2020 Sr.

No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 28 MAY 29 MAY 30 MAY 31 MAY 01 JUN 02 JUN 03 JUN 1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS FWS^● FWS^● FWS SCT SCT SCT FWS

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH FWS SCT FWS SCT FWS^● FWS^● FWS^●

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA FWS^TS● FWS^TS● FWS^$ FWS^TS FWS^TS● WS^● WS^● 4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA WS^TS^●● FWS^TS WS^TS FWS^TS WS^TS WS^● WS^● 5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM FWS^TS FWS^TS● FWS^TS FWS FWS SCT SCT 6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL SCT^TS● FWS^TS● FWS^TS FWS^TS SCT^TS ISOL ISOL

7 ODISHA SCT^TS^● SCT^TS SCT^TS FWS^TS^● SCT^TS ISOL ISOL

8 JHARKHAND SCT^TS SCT^TS SCT^TS SCT^TS ISOL ISOL ISOL

9 BIHAR SCT^TS SCT^TS SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH FWS⁺^DSTS WS^$ FWS^$ SCT^TS ISOL^TS ISOL ISOL 11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH SCT⁺^DSTS WS^{DSTS #} FWS^$ SCT^TS ISOL^TS ISOL ISOL

12 UTTARAKHAND FWS^$# FWS^$# FWS^TS# FWS^TS# SCT ISOL ISOL

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI ISOL⁺^TS FWS^TS FWS^$ SCT^TS ISOL ISOL ISOL

14 PUNJAB ISOL⁺^TS FWS^TS FWS^$ SCT^TS ISOL ISOL ISOL

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH SCT^TS# FWS^TS# FWS^TS# FWS^TS SCT ISOL ISOL 16 JAMMU & K. AND LADAKH SCT^TS# FWS^TS FWS^TS FWS^TS SCT^TS ISOL ISOL 17 WEST RAJASTSAN ISOL⁺

+DSTS ISOL^TS# SCT^{DS $} SCT^TS ISOL^TS ISOL ISOL 18 EAST RAJASTSAN ISOL⁺

+DSTS ISOL^TS# SCT^{DS $} SCT^TS ISOL^TS ISOL SCT 19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH D⁺ ISOL^TS ISOL^TS ISOL^TS SCT^TS SCT FWS 20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL⁺^TS ISOL^TS ISOL^TS ISOL^TS ISOL^TS SCT SCT 21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. &

N.H. ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT FWS^●

22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU D ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT

23 KONKAN & GOA D ISOL SCT SCT^TS● FWS^TS● FWS^● WS^●

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA D D ISOL SCT^TS SCT^TS SCT FWS

25 MARATHAWADA D D ISOL SCT^TS SCT^TS SCT ISOL

26 VIDARBHA D⁺ D⁺ ISOL^TS SCT^TS SCT^TS ISOL ISOL

27 CHHATTISGARH ISOL^TS ISOL^TS ISOL^TS SCT^TS SCT^TS ISOL ISOL

28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM ISOL^TS● ISOL^TS ISOL^TS SCT^TS SCT^TS ISOL ISOL 29 TELANGANA ISOL⁺^TS ISOL⁺^TS ISOL^TS SCT SCT^TS ISOL ISOL

30 RAYALASEEMA ISOL^TS SCT^TS SCT^TS SCT^TS SCT^TS ISOL ISOL

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL SCT^TS SCT^TS● ISOL^TS ISOL^TS ISOL^TS ISOL ISOL

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA SCT SCT^TS WS^TS● WS^TS● WS^TS● WS^● WS^●

33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA ISOL ISOL SCT^TS FWS^TS FWS^TS SCT SCT

34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA FWS^TS● FWS^TS●● WS^TS● WS^TS● WS^TS FWS SCT 35 KERALA & MAHE WS^TS● WS^TS● WS^TS●● WS^TS●● WS^TS● WS^● WS^●

36 LAKSHADWEEP FWS^TS● WS^TS● WS^TS●● WS^TS●● WS^TS● WS^● WS^●

LEGENDS:

WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)

SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL

●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ^●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ^●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)

FOG * SNOWFALL ^#HAILSTORM - COLD WAVE (-4.5^OC to -6.4^OC) -- SEVERE COLD WAVE (< - 6.4)

$TSUNDERSTORM WITS SQUALL/GUSTY WIND

DS/TSDUST/THUNDERSTORM ⁺HEAT WAVE (+4.5^OC to +6.4^OC) ⁺⁺ SEVERE HEAT WAVE (>

+6.4)

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• Rainfall during the week (21 to 27 May 2020): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 04 met sub-divisions, normal in 02 sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 20 sub-divisions and no rains in 10 met sub-division out of 36 met sub-divisions.

• Cumulative rainfall (1 March 2020 to 27 May 2020): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 20 met sub-divisions, normal in 10 met sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 06 sub-divisions out of 36 met sub-divisions.

Table 1.2: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country¹:

Region Week Ending (27.05.20) Cumulative (01.03.20 to 27.05.2020) (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category

Actual Normal Actual Normal

North-West India 1.8 8.4 -79 LD 136.8 110.2 24 E

Central India 1.8 5.1 -64 LD 71.3 34.1 109 LE

South Peninsular India 6.7 17.7 -62 LD 102.6 110.1 -7 N

East & North-East India 127.9 44.8 186 LE 376.4 345.4 9 N

Country as a whole 22.9 14.9 53 E 146.2 122.0 20 E

LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N:Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.

Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Table1.3: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 1 March 2020 to 27 May 2020

No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall

For the period from 1 March to

27 MAY 2015

25 MAY 2016

24 MAY 2017

30MAY 2018

29MAY 2019

27 MAY 2020 Large Excess

Excess Normal Total

- 28 06 34

- 05 16 21

01 04 13 18

03 03 13 19

01 03 08 12

14 06 10 30 Deficient

Large Deficient Scanty

No rain Total

02 - 00 00 02

11 - 04 00 15

11 07 - 00 18

12 05 - 00 17

14 10 - 00 24

05 01 - 00 06

Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00

TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36

All-India % Rainfall Deviation 42% (-) 3% (-) 5% (-) 10% (-) 24% 20%

Source: IMD

1. North-west India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.

Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Goa and Gujarat.

South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Kerala, A & N islands and Lakshadweep.

East & North East India - Bihar, Jharkhand , West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.

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Table 1.4: Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 29 May 2020 to 2 June 2020:

• Forecast for next two weeks at Annex-I.

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II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 28 May 2020)

• Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 123 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 171.09 BCM, which is about 66.36% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.

• Live Storage in 123 major reservoirs decreased to 58.03 BCM from the previous week’s level of 60.96 BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than last year’s storage position of 34.11 BCM and the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 34.70 BCM.

Table 2.1: For 123 major reservoirs of the country Period Storage as % of

FRL

Storage as % of Last Year

Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level

Current Week 34 170 167

Last Week 36 169 162

The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 20% on 28-05-2019, 18% on 28-05-2018, 22% on 28- 05-2017 and 17% on 28-05-2016.

Source: CWC

• There were 110 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 07 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 01 reservoir with storage between 31% to 50% and 05 reservoirs with storage upto 30% of Normal Storage, out of which 03 reservoirs had no live storage.

Source: Central Water Commission

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III. Fertilizer Position:

Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Kharif 2020 (As on 28.05.2020)

(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP Opening Stock as on 01.04.2020 613 799 232 1,084 130 Requirement for April 2020 to Sept 2020 16,688 5,161 2,022 5,295 2,642 Estimated Requirement during May, 2020 2,448 814 267 695 407

Cumulative Receipt upto 28.05.2020 4039 1018 284 1074 669

Cumulative Availability upto 28.05.2020 4652 1817 516 2158 799

Cumulative Sales upto 28.05.2020 3999 1259 281 1224 676

Closing Stock as on 28.05.2020 653 558 235 934 123

Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer

IV. Pest & Diseases:

•

Locust: There is report of 5-10% (60ha) crop damage in the affected 1000 ha area in Sriganganagar, Hanumangarh and Bikaner Districts of Rajasthan; and 5-10 % of 400 Ha area affected in Morainadistrict of MP. No report of crop loss in Gujarat, Punjab and UP So far.

Locust Warning Organisation has controlled it in the area of 49518 ha up to 27.5.2020 in the states of Rajasthan, Punjab, MP, Gujarat and UP.

•

Fall Army Worm reported at moderate intensity in 50 hectare area on Maize crop in Imphal West, Imphal East, Bishnupur, Thoubal and Kakching districts of Manipur. Farmers were advised to follow recommended Package of Practices for the management of Fall Army Worm.

•

Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.

V. Seeds Position:

• No deficiency of seed for Kharif-2020 reported.

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VI. All India Crop Situation:3

^rd

Adv. Est. (2019-20) vis-à-vis Final Est. (2018-19)

Table 6.1: All-India Rabi Crop Situation

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VII. Progressive Procurements as on 29 May 2020

Table 7.1: Rice

(in lakh tonnes) State Target in Marketing

season 2019-20 (October– September)

Progressive Procurement as on 29.05.2020

In Marketing season 2019-2020

Andhra Pradesh 61.92 48.36 40.28

Telangana 91.92 68.95 50.38

Bihar 12.00 13.41 9.49

Chhattisgarh 48.00 39.71 40.20

Haryana 40.00 43.03 39.42

Kerala 4.50 4.63 4.56

Madhya Pradesh 14.00 17.40 14.62

Maharashtra 9.35 8.70 4.40

Odisha 43.50 38.97 36.59

Punjab 114.00 108.76 113.34

Tamil Nadu 13.44 15.80 11.65

Uttar Pradesh 33.00 37.90 32.33

Uttarakhand 5.00 6.81 4.62

West Bengal 26.00 14.95 0.73

All-India 523.92 471.60 405.07

Table 7.2: Wheat

(in lakh tonnes) State Target in Marketing

season 2020-21 (April– March)

Progressive Procurement as on 29.05.2020

Bihar 2.00 0.04 0.02

Gujarat 0.50 0.26 0.05

Haryana 95.00 72.42 93.21

Himachal Pradesh 0.33 0.03 0.01

Madhya Pradesh 120.00 119.43 73.64

Punjab 135.00 126.68 129.12

Rajasthan 22.66 12.61 12.49

Uttar Pradesh 55.00 22.20 31.22

Uttarakhand 2.00 0.32 0.41

All-India 430.66 354.09 340.29

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Annex I

Weather forecast for next two Weeks

Weather Systems and Associated Precipitation &Temperature Patterns

Week-1: 28 May - 03June 2020

• In view of likely formation of a Low Pressure Area over southeast & adjoining east central Arabian Sea during 31^st May - 4^th June, conditions are likely to become favourable for onset of Southwest Monsoon over Kerala from 1st June, 2020.

• Under the influence of a Western Disturbance and an east-west trough in lower tropospheric levels; rain/thunderstorm accompanied with lightning, hail & squall at isolated places very likely over Western Himalaya Region & adjoining plains during 28^th - 30^th May, 2020. As a result, maximum temperatures over plains of north India and central & west India very likely to fall by 3-4°C during next 3-4 days. Hence the prevailing heat wave conditions are very likely to occur at isolated pockets of northwest & central India on today and abate thereafter.

• Heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Tripura and Mizoram during next 24hours and Heavy rainfall over Assam & Meghalaya. Heavy rainfall at isolated places over parts of south peninsular India during 28^th -31^st May, 2020 with isolated Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall over Kerala and Lakshadweep during 30^th- 31^st May 2020 most parts of India except Western Himalayan Region, northeastern and southwestern parts of India and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

• Cumulatively Rainfall for the week: Excess rainfall very likely over most parts of India except east coast and northern parts of northeastern states and across southeastern parts of peninsular India during the week.

Week-2: 04 - 10 June 2020

• Cumulative Rainfall for the Week: Normal to excess rainfall likely over eastern and parts of north India with deficient to normal rainfall over rest parts of the country.

Maximum Temperatures

• During week-1 (28 May – 03 June 2020):- Due to easterly wind and likely occurrences of rainfall over northern parts of the country during 29 May till 01 June, heat wave likely to be abated from most parts of India by 29 May and then further no heat wave conditions likely to develop during the week.

• Average Maximum temperatures of this week is likely to be normal to below normal over southwestern peninsular India, most parts of northwest, central and eastern parts of India.

• During week-2 (04 - 10 June 2020):- Maximum temperatures are likely to be normal over most parts of India except parts of Rajasthan and central India.

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