F. No. 3-1/ 2019-20-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443 Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 16.01.2020
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP
HELD ON 10.01.2020.
Summary observations of the Group on Agenda Items
The All-India level rainfall during the week i.e. 02nd January, 2020 – 08th January, 2020 has been 230% higher than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 475% in Central India, by 420% in East & North East India, by 146% in South Peninsula and by 134% in North West India.
The cumulative rainfall in the country during the winter season i.e. 1st January, 2020 to 08th January, 2020 has been by 194% higher than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 423% in Central India, by 374% in East & North East India, by 112% in South Peninsula and by 104% in North West India.
For winter season 1st January, 2020 to 08th January, 2020 out of 36 met sub-divisions, 24 met sub-divisions constituting 72% of the total area of the country has received large excess/excess rainfall, 02 met sub-divisions constituting 7% of the total area of the country has received normal rainfall, 06 met sub-divisions constituting 13% of the total area of the country has received deficient/large deficient rainfall and 04 met sub-divisions constituting 8% of the total area of the country has received no rainfall.
Central Water Commission monitors 120 major reservoirs in the country which have total live capacity of 170.33 Billion Cubic Meter (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of these, 95 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 125.19 BCM have irrigation potential. Live storage in 120 major reservoirs as on 09th January, 2020 has been 130.28 BCM as against 85.04 BCM on 09.01.2019 (last year) and 92.38 BCM of normal (average of the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 153% of last year’s storage and 141% of average of last 10 year’s storage.
As per latest information available on sowing of Rabi crops, around 99% of the normal area under Rabi crops has been sown upto 10.01.2020. Area sown under all rabi crops taken together has been reported 625.02 lakh hectares at All India level as compared to 578.47 lakh hectares in the corresponding period of last year and 593.20 lakh ha. normal area as on date.
All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 10.01.2020 for Kharif Marketing Season (KMS) 2019-20 is 282.85 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 280.42 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year.
1. Winter Season (Jan. – Feb.) during the week ending 08th January, 2020
Sub-Division wise Weekly Rainfall Forecast is shown in Table-1.1
Rainfall during the week (02nd January, 2020 to 08th January, 2020) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 25 sub-divisions, normal in 01 sub division, deficient/large deficient in 06 and no rain in 04 met sub-division out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
Cumulative rainfall (01st January, 2020 to 08th January, 2020) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 24 met sub-divisions, normal in 02 met sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 06 sub-divisions and no rain in 04 met sub-division out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
Table - 1.2: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country1
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table -1.3: Category wise comparative distribution of Sub-division (cumulative rainfall) and All- India Percentage Rainfall Departure for the last five years since: 1st Jan., 2020 to 08th January, 2020
Source: IMD
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 10th Jan., 2020 to 14th Jan., 2020 is shown in Table 1.4.
Forecast for next two weeks at Annex-I.
1. North-west India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.
Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Goa and Gujarat.
South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Kerala, A & N islands and Lakshadweep.
East & North East India - Bihar, Jharkhand , West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Region Week Ending (08.01.2020) Cumulative (01.01.20 to 08.01.20) (in mm) Devi-
ation (%)
Cate- gory
(in mm) Devi- ation
(%)
Cate- gory
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West India 12.7 5.4 134 LE 12.7 6.2 104 LE
Central India 7.5 1.3 475 LE 8.4 1.6 423 LE
South Peninsular India 5.2 2.1 146 LE 5.5 2.6 112 LE
East & North-East India 15.6 3.0 420 LE 15.7 3.3 374 LE
Country as a whole 9.9 3.0 230 LE 10.3 3.5 194 LE
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1st October to 07 JAN
2015
13 JAN 2016
11 JAN 2017
10 JAN 2018
09 JAN 2019
08 JAN 2020 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 25 02 27
- 01 02 03
04 03 02 09
02 01 00 03
01 01 01 03
22 02 02 26 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
03 - 05 01 09
03 - 10 20 33
04 12 - 11 27
02 06 - 25 33
00 14 - 19 33
01 05 - 04 10
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation 197% (-) 69% 31% (-)81% (-) 42% 194%
Table: 1.1
Source: IMD
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE DISTRIBUTION OF REALISED RAINFALL-2020
S.No. MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 02 JAN 03 JAN 04 JAN 05 JAN 06 JAN 07 JAN 08 JAN
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS D D D D ISOL D D
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH ISOL ISOL WS FWS FWS D D
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA ISOL SCT WS SCT FWS D D
4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA SCT FWS WS ISOL SCT D D
5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM ISOL ISOL FWS* SCT SCT ISOL ISOL
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL ISOL WS FWS SCT D D D
7 ODISHA ISOL SCT WS* ISOL D D D
8 JHARKHAND FWS WS ISOL ISOL ISOL D D
9 BIHAR ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL D D D
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH D SCT ISOL ISOL D ISOL SCT
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH D ISOL D D D ISOL FWS
12 UTTARAKHAND ISOL FWS ISOL SCT D WS WS
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI D D D D ISOL SCT FWS
14 PUNJAB D D D D SCT WS WS**
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH ISOL ISOL D SCT ISOL FWS WS**
16 JAMMU & KASHMIR D ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT FWS
17 WEST RAJASTHAN D D D D ISOL ISOL ISOL
18 EAST RAJASTHAN D D D D D D ISOL
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL ISOL D D D D ISOL
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH WS* WS* ISOL D D D SCT
21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. D D D D D D D
22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU D D D D D D D
23 KONKAN & GOA D D D D D D D
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA ISOL D D D D D D
25 MARATHAWADA ISOL SCT D D D D D
26 VIDARBHA FWS FWS* ISOL D D D ISOL
27 CHHATTISGARH SCT WS* SCT D D D D
28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM ISOL ISOL FWS ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
29 TELANGANA ISOL SCT SCT ISOL D D D
30 RAYALASEEMA ISOL D D ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA D D D D D D D
33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA ISOL ISOL D D D D D
34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA ISOL D D D ISOL D D
35 KERALA & MAHE ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL D D ISOL
36 LAKSHADWEEP D SCT SCT D D D D
LEGENDS:
WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NO STATION REPORTED RAINFALL
* ACTIVE (R/F 11/2- 4 times the normal with WS/FWS, at least 2 stations should be 5 cm. along west coast & 3 cm. elsewhere )
** VIGOROUS (R/F More than 4 times the normal with WS/FWS, at least 2 stations should be 8 cm. along west coast & 5 cm. elsewhere)
Table: 1.4
2. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 09.01.2020)
The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 120 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 170.33 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM), which is about 66.06% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
Live Storage in 120 major reservoirs decreased to 130.28 BCM from the previous week’s level of 133.87 BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than the last year’s storage position of 85.04 BCM and the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 92.38 BCM.
Table – 2.1 : For 120 major reservoirs of the country Period Storage as % of
FRL
Storage as % of last year
Storage as % of 10 year’s average level
Current Week Last Week
76 79
153 152
141 141
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 50% on 09/01/2019, 51% on 09/01/2018, 55% on 09/01/2017 and 42% on 09/01/2016.
Source: CWC
There were 115 reservoirs having storage more than 80% of normal storage, 2 reservoir having storage between 51% to 80%, 0 reservoir having storage between 31% to 50% and 03 reservoirs having storage upto 30% of Normal Storage.
Source: Central Water Commission
3. Fertilizer Position:
Table – 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP during Rabi 2019-20 (As on 09.01.2020)
(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP Opening Stock as on 01.10.2019 365 1377 377 1269 140
Requirement for Rabi 2019 17904 5208 1773 5186 2567
Estimated Requirement during Jan., 2020 3298 490 263 818 377 Cumulative Receipt upto 09.01.2020 10617 3149 602 2979 1174 Cumulative Availability upto 09.01.2020 10982 4526 979 4248 1314
Cumulative Sales upto 09.01.2020 10453 3427 675 2932 1170
Closing Stock as on 09.01.2020 529 1099 304 1316 144
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW) / Deptt. of Fertilizer
4. Pest & Diseases:
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level (ETL).
Fall Army Worm reported at Moderate intensity on Maize in 4099 hectare area in Katihar district of Bihar.
Fall Army Worm also reported above ETL in 160 hectares on Maize (30 villages) and in 6,300 hectares on Sorghum (32 villages) in Maharashtra.
Pink Boll Worm reported above ETL in 67,000 hectares on Cotton (25 villages) in Maharashtra.
Rugose Spiralling Whitefly reported at Moderate intensity on Coconut in Khammam district and on Oil palm in Khammam and Bhadradri Kothagudem district of Telangana state.
The infestation of FAW and Pink Boll Worm has decreased considerably in Maharashtra as compared to last week.
No shortage of Chemical / Bio-pesticides was reported for any State / UT.
5. Availability position of seeds and fertilizers has been found satisfactory.
6
. All India Crop Situations - Rabi (2019-20) as on 10.01.2020
Table: 6.17.
Progressive procurement of Rice as on 10.01.2020
Table: 7.1
(lakh tonnes)
State Target in
marketing season 2019-20 (Oct. – Sept.)
Progressive Procurement as on 10.01.2020
In Marketing season 2019-2020
In Marketing season 2018-2019
Andhra Pradesh 40.00 12.63 14.56
Telangana 30.00 28.05 25.43
Chhattisgarh 48.00 25.68 37.09
Haryana 40.00 43.03 39.42
Kerala 2.50 1.13 0.58
Madhya Pradesh 14.00 8.31 7.15
Maharashtra 6.00 2.40 1.96
Odisha 34.00 15.54 14.48
Punjab 114.00 108.73 113.16
Tamil Nadu 8.00 0.38 1.53
Uttar Pradesh 33.00 29.95 19.70
Uttrakhand 5.00 6.18 4.23
All-India 416.00 282.85 280.42
Annexure Rainfall for next two Weeks
Weather systems and associated Precipitation & temperature pattern during week 1 (10th – 16th January 2020) and week 2 (17th – 23rd January 2020)
Northeast monsoon rains
In view of the southward shift of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone, northeast Monsoon rains are likely to cease over Tamilnadu, Puducherry Karaikal, Kerala and Mahe and adjoining areas of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka by 10th January 2020.
Western Disturbances & Easterly waves
A fresh WD is very likely to affect Western Himalayan region from the night of 11th January, and adjoining northern plains on 13th. The peak weather associated with these could be on 13th January, with reduction on 14th. However, another WD in quick succession could cause rain / snow over western Himalayan region and rain / thunderstorms / Hailstorms over adjoining plains of northwest India during 16th – 17th January. Another active WD is likely to provide Rainfall over northwest India and northern plains towards the end of week -2.
A constructive interaction with the WD expected during 16th – 17th January could also result in widespread rain / thundershowers with isolated heavy falls over eastern parts of Punjab, adjoining Haryana & Chandigarh, lower reaches of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand &
northwest Uttar Pradesh on these two days. The rainfall belt is likely to shift eastwards along the Indo-Gangetic plains for the subsequent 3 days.
Rainfall for week 1: (10th – 16th January 2020)
In association with the WDs stated above, weekly accumulated rain / snow is likely to be above normal over Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and higher reaches of Arunachal Pradesh and rainfall is likely to be above normal over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and north Rajasthan.It is likely to be below normal over rest of India outside Andaman & Nicobar Islands and southern most parts of Kerala & Tamil Nadu where the rainfall is likely to be below normal.
Rainfall for week 2: (17th – 23rd January 2020))
Cumulative precipitation is likely to be above normal over only over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and south coastal Tamil Nadu. It is likely to be near normal (normally this is Dry period of the year) over the rest of the states and Union Territories.
Minimum Temperatures for week 1: (10th – 16th January 2020)
Night minimum temperatures are likely to remain below normal during a few days over major parts of India outside some parts of Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, east Assam, Madhya
Maharashtra and coastal & south interior Karnataka, where normal to above normal night temperatures on some of the days during the week are expected.
Minimum Temperatures for week 2: (17th – 23rd January 2020)
Week 2 in general is likely to be warmer than week 1. Night minimum temperatures are likely to be above normal over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, northeast Madhya Pradesh, north Madhya Maharashtra and coastal & adjoining south interior Karnataka. It will be near normal to below normal
elsewhere.
