F. No. 3-1/ 2019-20-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443 Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 13.11.2019
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 08.11.2019.
Summary observations of the Group on Agenda Items
The All-India level rainfall during the week i.e. 31st October, 2019 – 06th November, 2019 has been 1% lower than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 152% in Central India & by 15% in North West India but lower than the LPA by 86% in East & North East India and by 22% in South Peninsula.
The cumulative rainfall in the country during the post monsoon season i.e. 1st October, 2019 to 06th November, 2019 has been by 38% higher than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 101% in Central India & by 38% in South Peninsula but lower than the LPA by 5% in East & North East India and by 3% in North West India.
For post monsoon season. 1st October, 2019 to 06th November, 2019 out of 36 met sub- divisions, 18 met sub-divisions constituting 52% of the total area of the country has received large excess/excess rainfall, 10 met sub-divisions constituting 31% of the total area of the country has received normal rainfall and 08 met sub-divisions constituting 17% of the total area of the country has received deficient/large deficient rainfall.
Central Water Commission monitors 120 major reservoirs in the country which have total live capacity of 170.33 Billion Cubic Meter (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of these, 95 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 125.19 BCM have irrigation potential. Live storage in the 120 major reservoirs as on 07th November, 2019 has been 152.10 BCM as against 112.48 BCM on 07.11.2018 (last year) and 116.41 BCM of normal (average of the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 135% of last year’s storage and 131% of average of last 10 year’s storage.
As per latest information available on sowing of Rabi crops, around 15% of the normal area under Rabi crops has been sown upto 08.11.2019. Area sown under all rabi crops taken together has been reported 95.35 lakh hectares at All India level as compared to 112.24 lakh hectares in the corresponding period of last year and 117.51 lakh ha. normal area as on date.
All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 08.11.2019 for Kharif Marketing Season (KMS) 2019-20 is 139.08 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 123.40 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year. The procurement of wheat as on 05.07.2019 for the Rabi Marketing Season (RMS) 2019-20 was 341.33 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 353.69 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of RMS 2018-19.
1. Post Monsoon Season (Oct. – Dec.) during the week ending 06th November, 2019
Sub-Division wise Weekly Rainfall Forecast is shown in Table-1.1
Rainfall during the week (31st October, 2019 to 06th November, 2019) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 16 met sub-divisions, normal in 01 subdivision, deficient/large deficient in 14 sub-divisions and no rain in 5 met sub-division out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
Cumulative rainfall (01st October, 2019 to 06th Noember, 2019) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 18 met sub-divisions, normal in 10 met sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 08 sub-divisions out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
Table - 1.2: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country1
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table -1.3: Category wise comparative distribution of Sub-division (cumulative rainfall) and All- India Percentage Rainfall Departure for the last five years since: 1st Oct., 2019 to 06th November 2019
Source: IMD
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 08th Nov., 2019 to 12th Nov., 2019 is shown in Table 1.4
1. North-west India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.
Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Goa and Gujarat.
South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Kerala, A & N islands and Lakshadweep.
East & North East India - Bihar, Jharkhand , West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Region Week Ending (06.11.2019) Cumulative (01.10.19 to 06.11.19) (in mm) Devi-
ation (%)
Cate- gory
(in mm) Devi- ation
(%)
Cate- gory
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West India 2.8 2.4 15 N 24.4 25.2 -3 N
Central India 10.1 4.0 152 LE 114.6 56.9 101 LE
South Peninsular India 23.7 30.3 -22 D 249.7 181.0 38 E East & North-East India 1.1 7.9 -86 LD 128.6 135.4 -5 N
Country as a whole 9.1 9.2 -1 N 115.7 84.0 38 E
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1st October to 05 NOV
2014
04 NOV 2015
09 NOV 2016
08 NOV 2017
07 NOV 2018
06 NOV 2019 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 04 06 10
- 02 08 10
- 06 10 16
02 08 10 20
01 00 05 06
16 02 10 28 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
10 - 15 01 16
05 - 21 00 26
07 - 13 00 20
05 07 - 04 16
08 22 - 00 30
07 01 - 00 08
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 30% (-) 43% (-) 35% (-) 4% (-) 51% 38%
Table: 1.1
Source: IMD
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2019 Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 07 NOV 08 NOV 09 NOV 10 NOV 11 NOV 12 NOV 13 NOV
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS WS FWS SCT SCT SCT SCT ISOL
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH D D ISOL ISOL ISOL D D
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA D D ISOL TS SCT ● TS SCT ISOL ISOL
4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA D ISOL SCT TS SCT ● TS SCT ISOL ISOL
5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM D D ISOL ISOL D D D
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL D SCT FWS●●● SCT ISOL ISOL D
7 ODISHA ISOL ISOL●● SCT●● SCT ISOL ISOL D
8 JHARKHAND D D ISOL ISOL D D D
9 BIHAR D D D D D D D
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH D D D D D D D
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL D D D D D D
12 UTTARAKHAND SCT ISOL D D D D D
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI FWS TS ISOL D D D D D
14 PUNJAB WS● TS# ISOL D D D D D
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH WS ●● TS# ISOL D D D D ISOL
16 JAMMU & KASHMIR WS● ●● TS# SCT D D D ISOL SCT
17 WEST RAJASTSAN ISOL D D D D D D
18 EAST RAJASTSAN SCT TS ISOL D D D D D
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH SCT ISOL D D D D D
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH D D D D D D D
21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. FWS● SCT ISOL D D D D
22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU SCT SCT ISOL D D D D
23 KONKAN & GOA ISOL TS ISOL D D D D D
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA ISOL TS ISOL D D D D D
25 MARATHAWADA ISOL D D D D D D
26 VIDARBHA ISOL D D D D D D
27 CHHATTISGARH D D D ISOL ISOL D D
28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM ISOL D D ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
29 TELANGANA ISOL ISOL D D D ISOL ISOL
30 RAYALASEEMA ISOL ISOL ISOL D D ISOL ISOL
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOL FWS● ●
TS FWS● TS SCT● TS SCT ISOL ISOL
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA ISOL ISOL SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL
33 NORTS INT.KARNATAKA SCT ISOL TS ISOL TS ISOL TS ISOL ISOL ISOL 34 SOUTS INT.KARNATAKA SCT SCT TS FWS● TS FWS● TS SCT ISOL ISOL 35 KERALA & MAHE SCT FWS● ●
TS FWS● TS FWS● TS FWS FWS SCT
36 LAKSHADWEEP ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
LEGENDS:
WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL
●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
FOG * SNOWFALL # HAILSTORM -COLD WAVE (-4.5 OC to -6.4 OC) --SEVERE COLD WAVE (< -6.4)
$TSUNDERSTORM WITS SQUALL/GUSTY WIND DS/TSDUST/TSUNDERSTORM +HEAT WAVE (+4.5 OC to +6.4 OC) ++ SEVERE HEAT WAVE (>
+6.4)
Table: 1.4
Source: IMD
2. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 07.11.2019)
The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 120 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 170.33 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM), which is about 66.06% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
Live Storage in 120 major reservoirs decreased to 152.10 BCM from the previous week’s level of 153.30 BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than the last year’s storage position of 112.48 BCM and the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 116.41 BCM.
Table – 2.1 : For 120 major reservoirs of the country Period Storage as % of
FRL
Storage as % of last year
Storage as % of 10 year’s average level
Current Week Last Week
89 90
135 133
131 129
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 66% on 07/11/2018, 68% on 07/11/2017, 69% on 07/11/2016 and 54% on 07/11/2015.
Source: CWC
There were 117 reservoirs having storage more than 80% of normal storage, 0 reservoir having storage between 51% to 80%, 1 reservoir having storage between 31% to 50%
and 2 reservoirs having storage upto 30% of Normal Storage.
Source: Central Water Commission
3. Fertilizer Position:
Table – 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP during Rabi 2019-20 (As on 07.11.2019)
(in ‘000 tonnes)
Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP Opening Stock as on 01.10.2019 365 1377 377 1269 140
Requirement for Rabi 2019 17607 5210 1778 5188 2567
Estimated Requirement during Nov., 2019 3811 1603 366 982 559 Cumulative Receipt upto 07.11.2019 3339 1403 258 1067 525 Cumulative Availability upto 07.11.2019 3704 2780 635 2336 665
Cumulative Sales upto 07.11.2019 3029 1401 286 994 530
Closing Stock as on 07.11.2019 675 1379 349 1342 135
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW) / Deptt. of Fertilizer
4. Pest & Diseases:
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level (ETL).
No shortage of Chemical / Bio-pesticides was reported for any State / UT.
5. Availability position of seeds and fertilizers has been found satisfactory.
6.
Progressive procurement of Rice as on 08.11.2019
Table: 6.1
(lakh tonnes)
7.
Progressive procurement of Wheat as on 05.07.2019
Table: 7.1
(lakh tonnes)
State Target in
marketing season 2019-20 (Oct. – Sept.)
Progressive Procurement as on 08.11.2019
In Marketing season 2019-2020
In Marketing season 2018-2019
Haryana 40.00 41.38 37.73
Kerala 2.50 0.17 0.32
Punjab 114.00 92.47 83.43
Tamil Nadu 8.00 0.24 0.89
Uttar Pradesh 33.00 2.20 0.15
Uttrakhand 5.00 2.47 0.74
All-India 416.00 139.08 123.40
State Target in marketing season 2019-20 (April - March)
Progressive Procurement as on 05.07.2019
In Marketing season 2019-2020
In Marketing season 2018-2019
Bihar 2.00 0.03 0.15
Haryana 85.00 93.20 87.37
Madhya Pradesh 75.00 67.25 69.67
Punjab 125.00 129.12 126.62
Rajasthan 17.00 14.11 15.32
Uttar Pradesh 50.00 37.00 52.94
Uttrakhand 2.00 0.42 1.10
All-India 357.00 341.33 353.69
Anneure-I
Rainfall for next two Weeks (As on 7.11.2019)
Weather systems & associated Precipitation during Week 1(07 to 13 November, 2019) and Week 2 (14 to 20 November, 2019)
Rainfall for week 1 : (07th November to 13th November, 2019)
The Cyclonic Storm ‘Bulbul’ (Pronounced as Bul bul) over over westcentral & adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal is very likely to intensify into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 6 hours. It is very likely to move initially north-northwestwards for next 12 hours and then nearly northwards till 9th November morning and then re-curve northeastwards towards Bangladesh and adjoining West Bengal. Under its influence, light to moderate rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls very likely over north coastal districts on 8th November and isolated heavy to very heavy falls on 9th November 2019. Light to moderate rainfall at most places with extremely heavy falls (≥ 20 cm in 24 hours) at isolated places very likely over coastal districts of West Bengal on 9th November and with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 10th November 2019.
Light Isolated to scattered rainfall is likely to occur over remaining parts of Gangetic West Bengal & Odisha and over northeast India during most days of week 1.
The Depression over northeast and adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea is very likely to move east-northeastwards, weaken into a Well Marked Low Pressure Area over northeast adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea off south Gujarat coast during next 6 hours.
Under the influence of Western Disturbance and its interaction with remnant of cyclone 'Maha', heavy to very heavy rain/snow at isolated places is very likely over Jammu &
Kashmir and heavy over Himachal Pradesh; isolated heavy rainfall at isolated heavy over Punjab, Gujarat region & Saurashtra coasts on today.
Light to moderate isolated/scattered rainfall along with thunderstorm activity very likely to occur over south Peninsular India during week 1.
Cumulatively, above normal rainfall very likely over north Coastal Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura and south Assam; normal to below normal over south Peninsular India, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand; and no weather over remaining parts of the country during week 1
Rainfall for week 2: (14th November to 20th November, 2019)
Normal to below normal precipitation is likely over south Peninsular India, Andaman &
Nicobar Islands, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand; and no weather over remaining parts of the country during week 2.
