F. No. 3-1/ 2019-20-CFCC-ES

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F. No. 3-1/ 2019-20-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)

Room No. 443 Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 30.06.2020

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 26.06.2020.

Summary

• All-India level rainfall during the week, 18 June to 24 June 2020, has been 5% higher than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 16% in Central India - Higher by 11% in North West India,

- Higher by 4% in East and North East India and - Lower by 24% in South Peninsula.

• Cumulative rainfall during Monsoon season, 01 to 24 June 2020, has been 22% higher than LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 59% in Central India - Higher by 11% in North West India,

- Higher by 3% in South Peninsula and East & North East India each.

• Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:

- Large excess/ excess in 15 MET sub-divisions constituting 49% of total area - Normal in 15 MET sub-divisions constituting 33% of total area, and

- Deficient/ large deficient in 06 MET sub-divisions constituting 18% of total area.

• Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 123 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 171.09 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).

- Out of these, 99 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 126.45 BCM have irrigation potential.

- Live storage in 123 major reservoirs as on 25 June 2020 was 56.73 BCM, which is:

- 194% of last year’s storage on the same day (25 June 2019) of 29.17 BCM.

- 171% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 33.21 BCM.

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• Total area sown under Kharif crops reported at 315.63 lakh ha. as compared to 154.53 lakh ha.

during same period last year and 187.64 lakh ha. normal area as on 26-06-2020.

• All-India progressive procurement as on 26 June 2020

- Rice for Kharif Marketing Season 2019-20 is 500.30 lakh tonnes (against 433.61 lakh tonnes procured in the corresponding period of last year).

- Wheat for Rabi Marketing Season 2020-21 is 387.20 lakh tonnes (against 347.75 lakh tonnes procured in the corresponding period of last year).

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Monsoon Season (June-September) during the week ending 24 June 2020 I. Rainfall

Table 1.1: Sub-Division-wise Weekly Rainfall Forecast for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2020

Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 25 JUN 26 JUN 27 JUN 28 JUN 29 JUN 30 JUN 01 JUL

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS FWS WS WS^● WS^● WS^● WS^● WS

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH WS^●●●TS WS^●●●TS WS^● WS^● FWS FWS FWS 3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA WS^●●●TS WS^●●●TS WS^●●● WS^● FWS WS^● WS^● 4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA WS^● WS^●● WS^●● WS^● WS^● WS^● WS^● 5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM WS^●●● WS^●●● WS^●● WS^● WS WS WS^●

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL SCT SCT WS^● WS^● WS FWS FWS

7 ODISHA ISOL ISOL SCT ^TS SCT SCT SCT SCT

8 JHARKHAND SCT ^TS FWS^TS FWS^TS● WS^TS● FWS^TS FWS FWS

9 BIHAR WS^●●●TS WS^●●● WS^●●● WS^●● WS FWS FWS

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH WS^●● WS^●● WS^●● WS^●● WS^● FWS FWS

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH FWS^● SCT SCT FWS^● FWS^● FWS SCT

12 UTTARAKHAND WS^● FWS SCT WS^● WS^● FWS^● FWS^●

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI FWS^● ISOL ISOL ISOL FWS^● FWS SCT

14 PUNJAB WS^● ISOL ISOL SCT FWS^● SCT SCT

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH FWS^● ISOL ISOL SCT FWS^● FWS SCT

16 JAMMU & K. AND LADAKH FWS^● ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT^● SCT ISOL

17 WEST RAJASTSAN ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

18 EAST RAJASTSAN SCT^● SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL^● SCT^● FWS^●

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH SCT ^TS SCT ^TS ISOL ISOL SCT FWS^● FWS^● 20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH SCT ^TS SCT ^TS SCT FWS FWS FWS^● FWS^● 21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. &

N.H.

ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL 22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

23 KONKAN & GOA FWS FWS WS WS^● WS^● WS^● WS^●

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA SCT ^TS FWS^TS FWS^TS SCT SCT SCT SCT

25 MARATHAWADA FWS^TS● FWS^TS● FWS^TS SCT SCT SCT SCT

26 VIDARBHA SCT ^TS SCT ^TS SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT

27 CHHATTISGARH SCT ^TS SCT ^TS SCT FWS FWS FWS FWS

28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM ISOL ISOL SCT ^TS FWS^TS● FWS^TS● SCT SCT

29 TELANGANA ISOL SCT FWS^TS● FWS^TS FWS FWS FWS

30 RAYALASEEMA FWS^TS FWS^TS WS^TS● WS^TS● FWS^TS● FWS SCT

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL SCT^TS● SCT^TS● ISOL^● ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA W

S

WS^● WS^● WS^● WS WS^● WS^●

33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA FWS FWS WS^● WS^● WS FWS FWS

34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA WS^● WS^●● WS^●● WS^●● WS FWS FWS

35 KERALA & MAHE WS^● WS^●●● WS^●●● WS^● WS WS^● WS^●

36 LAKSHADWEEP WS^● WS^●● WS^●● WS WS WS WS

LEGENDS:

WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)

SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL

●

Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm)

●●

Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm)

●●●

Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)

FOG * SNOWFALL ^#HAILSTORM ^-COLD WAVE (-4.5 ^OC to -6.4 ^OC) ^--SEVERE COLD WAVE (< -6.4)

$ TSUNDERSTORM WITS SQUALL/GUSTY WIND ^DS/TSDUST/THUNDERSTORM ⁺HEAT WAVE (+4.5 ^OC to +6.4 ^OC) ⁺⁺SEVERE HEAT WAVE (> +6.4)

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• Rainfall during the week (18 June 2020 to 24 June 2020): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 7 met sub-divisions, normal in 12 sub-division and deficient/large deficient in 17 sub-division out of 36 met sub-divisions.

• Cumulative rainfall (01 June 2020 to 24 June 2020): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 15 met sub-divisions, normal in 15 met sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 06 sub- divisions out of 36 met sub-divisions.

Table 1.2: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country¹:

Region of India Week Ending (24.06.2020) Cumulative (01.06.20 to 24.06.2020) (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category

Actual Normal Actual Normal

North-West 22.3 20.1 11 N 55.5 50.2 11 N

Central 57.3 49.2 16 N 183.6 115.2 59 E

South Peninsular 29.7 38.8 -24 D 129.3 125.1 3 N

East & North-East 95.5 91.8 4 N 273.3 266.2 3 N

Country as a whole 47.2 45.0 5 N 147.9 121.2 22 E

LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N:Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.

Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Table1.3: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 to 24 June 2020

No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall

For the period from 1 June to

24 JUNE 2015

22 JUNE 2016

21 JUNE 2017

27 JUNE 2018

26 JUNE 2019

24 JUNE 2020 Large Excess

Excess Normal Total

- 16 13 29

- 06 17 23

08 07 11 26

00 06 18 24

01 02 02 05

05 10 15 30 Deficient

Large Deficient Scanty

No rain Total

05 - 02 00 07

11 - 02 00 13

10 00 - 00 10

11 01 - 00 12

27 04 - 00 31

06 00 - 00 06

Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00

TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36

All-India % Rainfall Deviation 24% (-) 18% 4% (-) 10% (-) 36% 22%

Source: IMD

North-West India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.

Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Goa and Gujarat.

South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Kerala, A & N islands and Lakshadweep.

East & North East India - Bihar, Jharkhand , West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.

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Table 1.4: Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 26 June 2020 to 30 June 2020:

• Forecast for next two weeks at Annex-I.

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II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 25 June 2020)

• Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 123 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 171.09 BCM, which is about 66.36% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.

• Live Storage in 123 major reservoirs increased to 56.73 BCM from the previous week’s level of 54.11 BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than last year’s storage position of 29.17 BCM and the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 33.21 BCM.

Table 2.1: For 123 major reservoirs of the country

Period Storage as % of FRL

Storage as % of Last Year

Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level

Current Week 33 194 171

Last Week 32 183 169

The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 17% on 25-06-2019, 19% on 25-06-2018, 19% on 25- 06-2017 and 15% on 25-06-2016.

Source: CWC

• There were 104 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 10 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 05 reservoir with storage between 31% to 50% and 04 reservoirs with storage upto 30% of Normal Storage, out of which 04 reservoirs had no live storage.

Source: Central Water Commission

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III. Fertilizer Position:

Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Kharif 2020 (As on 25.06.2020)

(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP Opening Stock as on 01.04.2020 613 799 232 1,084 130 Requirement for April 2020 to Sept 2020 16,688 5,161 2,022 5,295 2,642 Estimated Requirement during June 2020 2972 1027 387 995 566

Cumulative Receipt upto 25.06.2020 6521 1943 505 1993 1187

Cumulative Availability upto 25.06.2020 7134 2742 737 3077 1317

Cumulative Sales upto 25.06.2020 6616 2230 519 2218 1202

Closing Stock as on 25.06.2020 518 512 218 859 115

Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer

IV. Pest & Diseases:

•

Locust: No reports of crop damage in locust-affected States of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Punjab, Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh received during this week.

•

Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.

V. Seeds Position:

•

There is no deficiency of seeds for Kharif-2020, except Soyabean seed.

• To minimize seed deficiency of Soyabean

➢ Seed position is monitored regularly by Seed Division, DAC&FW through Video Conference and efforts have been made to minimize the shortfall by coordinating between the states having any surplus quantity and the states having deficiency. Recently Maharashtra has shown surplus of 10000 quintals and Seed Hubs of ICAR have 1800 quintals of seed available with them.

➢ Reduction in standard of germination has been done from 70% to 65% and then 65%

to 60% in case of soybean by DAC&FW for Kharif-2020.

➢ DAC&FW has permitted the seed producing agencies to take up seed production from Certified Seed Stage-I to Certified Seed Stage-II (upto four generation from Breeder Seed) for Kharif-2020 season so that same situation should not arise in case of soybean in future.

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VI. Progressive Procurements as on 26 June 2020

Table 6.1: Rice

(in lakh tonnes) State Target in Marketing

season 2019-20 (October– September)

Progressive Procurement as on 26.0 6.2020

In Marketing season 2019-2020

Andhra Pradesh 61.92 53.18 44.72

Telangana 91.92 74.63 51.87

Bihar 12.00 13.41 9.49

Chhattisgarh 48.00 46.56 40.20

Haryana 40.00 43.03 39.42

Kerala 4.50 4.74 4.64

Madhya Pradesh 14.00 17.40 14.62

Maharashtra 9.35 10.12 5.25

Odisha 43.50 46.69 41.58

Punjab 114.00 108.76 113.34

Tamil Nadu 13.44 17.21 11.98

Uttar Pradesh 33.00 37.90 32.33

Uttarakhand 5.00 6.81 4.62

West Bengal 26.00 15.13 16.90

All-India 524.25 500.30 433.61

Table 6.2: Wheat

(in lakh tonnes) State Target in Marketing

season 2020-21 (April– March)

Progressive Procurement as on 26.0 6.2020

Bihar 2.00 0.05 0.03

Gujarat 0.50 0.55 0.05

Haryana 95.00 73.98 93.21

Himachal Pradesh 0.33 0.03 0.01

Madhya Pradesh 130.00 129.35 73.70

Punjab 135.00 127.12 129.12

Rajasthan 20.66 21.26 14.08

Uttar Pradesh 55.00 34.36 37.00

Uttarakhand 2.00 0.38 0.42

All-India 440.66 387.20 347.75

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Annex I

Weather forecast for next two Weeks

Weather Systems and Associated Precipitation &Temperature Patterns

Week-1: 25 June – 01 July 2020

• Northeast & adjoining east India very likely continue to get widespread rainfall during 1^st half of the week. Isolated extremely heavy rainfall is also likely over Bihar and Assam

& Meghalaya during 25th-27th June and over Arunachal Pradesh and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on 25th & 26th June, 2020.

• Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over parts of southwest peninsular India during 1^st half of the week and over East Uttar Pradesh during next 3-4 days.

• Significant reduction of rainfall over northwest India and adjoining central India from 26 June till 28 June and Gujarat likely to get subdued rainfall during the week.

• Cumulative Rainfall for the week : Normal to above normal rainfall likely over northeastern states of India and adjoining eastern parts of India (including Bihar), eastern parts of Uttar Pradesh and southern parts of Peninsular India with below normal rainfall over central India, plains of northwest India, western parts and rest parts of peninsular India.

Week-2: 02 - 08 July 2020

• Cumulative Rainfall for the Week: Normal to above normal rainfall likely over peninsular India and eastern parts of India whereas northwest and Central likely to receive normal to below normal rainfall

Maximum Temperatures

• During week-1 (25 June – 01 July 2020):- Most parts of India likely to have below normal maximum temperature during the week except plains of Northwest India, Gujarat state and Odisha. It will be above normal by 1-3 degree C over these latter areas.

• During week-2 (02 - 08 July 2020):- Most parts of India are expected to have normal to below normal maximum temperature except plains of Northwest India and Gujarat state. It will be above normal by 1-3 degree C over these latter areas.