F. No. 3-1/ 2019-20-CFCC-ES

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F. No. 3-1/ 2019-20-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)

Room No. 443 Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 19.02.2020

SUBJECT:

MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP

HELD ON 14.02.2020.

Summary observations of the Group on Agenda Items



The All-India level rainfall during the week i.e. 06

^th

February to 12

^th

February, 2020 has been 50% lower than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher by 149% in Central India & by 29% in South Peninsula but lower than LPA by 94% in North West India and by 85% in East & North East India .



The cumulative rainfall in the country during the winter season i.e. 1

^st

January, 2020 to 12

^th

February, 2020 has been by 23% higher than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 96% in Central India, by 18% in North West India and equal to LPA in East & North East India but lower than LPA by 12% in South Peninsula.



For winter season 1

^st

January, 2020 to 12

^th

February, 2020 out of 36 met sub-divisions, 15 met sub-divisions constituting 51% of the total area of the country has received large excess/excess rainfall, 04 met sub-divisions constituting 12% of the total area of the country has received normal rainfall, 14 met sub-divisions constituting 33% of the total area of the country has received deficient/large deficient rainfall and 03 met sub-divisions constituting 4% of the total area of the country has received no rainfall.

 Central Water Commission monitors 123 major reservoirs in the country which have total live

capacity of 171.09 Billion Cubic Meter (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of these, 99 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 126.45 BCM have irrigation potential. Live storage in 123 major reservoirs as on 13

^th

February, 2020 has been 110.46 BCM as against 70.59 BCM on 13.02.2019 (last year) and 75.19 BCM of normal (average of the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 156% of last year’s storage and 147% of average of last 10 year’s storage.



As per final reports on sowing of Rabi crops, around 105% of the normal area under Rabi crops has been sown upto 31.01.2020. Area sown under all rabi crops taken together has been reported 662.13 lakh hectares at All India level as compared to 604.52 lakh hectares in the corresponding period of last year and 613.91 lakh ha. normal area as on date.



All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 14.02.2020 for Kharif Marketing Season

(KMS) 2019-20 is 367.86 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 344.29 lakh tonnes in the

corresponding period of last year.

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1. Winter Season (Jan. – Feb.) during the week ending 12^th February, 2020



Sub-Division wise Weekly Rainfall Forecast is shown in Table-1.1



Rainfall during the week (06

^th

February to 12

^th

February, 2020) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 05 sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 16 and no rain in 15 met sub-division out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.



Cumulative rainfall (01

^st

January, 2020 to 12

^th

February, 2020) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 15 met sub-divisions, normal in 04 met sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 14 sub-divisions and no rain in 03 met sub-division out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.

Table - 1.2: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country

¹

LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.

Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Table -1.3: Category wise comparative distribution of Sub-division (cumulative rainfall) and All- India Percentage Rainfall Departure for the last five years since: 1

^st

Jan., 2020 to 12

^th

Feb, 2020

Source: IMD

 Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 14^th

Feb., 2020 to 18

^th

Feb., 2020 is shown in Table 1.4.

 Forecast for next two weeks at Annex-I

1. North-west India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.

Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Goa and Gujarat.

South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Kerala, A & N islands and Lakshadweep.

East & North East India - Bihar, Jharkhand , West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.

Region Week Ending (12.02.2020) Cumulative (01.01.20 to 12.02.20) (in mm) Devi-

ation (%)

Cate- gory

(in mm) Devi- ation

(%)

Cate- gory

Actual Normal Actual Normal

North-West India 0.6 10.7 -94 LD 58.0 49.3 18 N

Central India 5.7 2.3 149 LE 21.6 11.0 96 LE

South Peninsular India 2.6 2.0 29 E 9.6 10.9 -12 N

East & North-East India 1.1 7.4 -85 LD 30.9 30.9 0 N

Country as a whole 2.8 5.6 -50 D 31.9 25.9 23 E

No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall

For the period from 1^st October to 11 FEB

2015

10 FEB 2016

15 FEB 2017

14 FEB 2018

13 FEB 2019

12 FEB 2020 Large Excess

Excess Normal Total

- 14 06 20

- 03 02 05

04 05 04 13

02 03 02 07

07 04 07 18

08 07 04 19 Deficient

Large Deficient Scanty

No rain Total

09 - 07 00 16

09 - 17 05 31

04 13 - 06 23

07 20 - 02 29

03 11 - 04 18

09 05 - 03 17

Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00

TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36

All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 13% (-) 64% 9% (-) 58% 13% 23%

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Table: 1.1

Source: IMD

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE DISTRIBUTION OF REALISED RAINFALL-2020 S.No. MET.SUB-DIVISIONS ^{06 FEB} ^{07 FEB} ^{08 FEB} ^{09 FEB} ^{10 FEB} ^{11 FEB} ^{12 FEB}

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS D D D D D ISOL D

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT D D

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA ISOL ISOL D ISOL ISOL D D

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA ISOL ISOL D ISOL SCT D D

5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM ISOL D D D D D D

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL D ISOL ISOL SCT D D D

7 ODISHA SCT FWS FWS WS ISOL D D

8 JHARKHAND D ISOL ISOL ISOL D D D

9 BIHAR D D D D D D D

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH D D D D D D D

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH D D D D D D D

12 UTTARAKHAND D D SCT D D D D

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI D D D D D D D

14 PUNJAB D D D D D D D

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH D ISOL ISOL D D D ISOL

16 JAMMU & KASHMIR D ISOL D D D D SCT

17 WEST RAJASTHAN D D D D D D D

18 EAST RAJASTHAN D D D D D D D

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH D D ISOL D D D D

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH D ISOL ISOL D D D D

21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. D D D D D D D

22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU D D D D D D D

23 KONKAN & GOA D D D D D D D

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA D D D D D D D

25 MARATHAWADA D D D D D D D

26 VIDARBHA ISOL SCT ISOL ISOL D D D

27 CHHATTISGARH ISOL FWS FWS SCT ISOL D D

28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL

29 TELANGANA D D ISOL FWS ISOL ISOL D

30 RAYALASEEMA D D D ISOL D D D

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOL D D D ISOL ISOL ISOL

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA D D D D D D D

33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA D D D ISOL D D D

34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA D D D D D D D

35 KERALA & MAHE ISOL ISOL ISOL D D D D

36 LAKSHADWEEP D D D D D D D

LEGENDS:

WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)

SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NO STATION REPORTED RAINFALL

* ACTIVE (R/F 1^1/2- 4 times the normal with WS/FWS, at least 2 stations should be 5 cm. along west coast & 3 cm. elsewhere )

** VIGOROUS (R/F More than 4 times the normal with WS/FWS, at least 2 stations should be 8 cm. along west coast & 5 cm. elsewhere)

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Table: 1.4

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2. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 13.02.2020)



The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 123 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 171.09 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM), which is about 66.36% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.



Live Storage in 123 major reservoirs decreased to 110.46 BCM from the previous week’s level of 114.82 BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than the last year’s storage position of 70.59 BCM and the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 75.19 BCM.

Table – 2.1 : For 120 major reservoirs of the country Period Storage as % of

FRL

Storage as % of last year

Storage as % of 10 year’s average level

Current Week Last Week

65 67

156 157

147 146

The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 41% on 13/02/2019, 41% on 13/02/2018, 46% on 13/02/2017 and 34% on 13/02/2016.

Source: CWC



There were 116 reservoirs having storage more than 80% of normal storage, 3 reservoirs having storage between 51% to 80%, 01 reservoir having storage between 31% to 50%, 03 reservoirs having storage upto 30% of Normal Storage and 01 reservoir having no live sotorage.

Source: Central Water Commission

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3. Fertilizer Position:

Table – 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP during Rabi 2019-20 (As on 13.02.2020)

(in ‘000 tonnes)

Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP

Opening Stock as on 01.10.2019 365 1377 377 1269 140

Requirement for Oct,2019 to March, 2020 17904 5208 1773 5186 2567 Estimated Requirement during Feb, 2020 1943 415 231 741 320

Cumulative Receipt upto 13.02.2020 14464 3857 867 3940 1551

Cumulative Availability upto 13.02.2020 14829 5234 1244 5209 1691

Cumulative Sales upto 13.02.2020 14197 3815 883 3836 1488

Closing Stock as on 13.02.2020 632 1419 361 1373 203

Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW) / Deptt. of Fertilizer

4. Pest & Diseases:

 Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level (ETL).



Fall Army Worm reported at low to moderate intensity in 20 hectare area on Rabi Maize in Munger district of Bihar.



Late blight reported at low to moderate intensity in 90 hectare area on Potato crop in Agra, Mathura and Firozabad districts of Uttar Pradesh.



Thrips reported above ETL in 65 hectare area on Onion crop in Pune and Ahmednagar districts of Maharashtra.

5. Availability position of seeds and fertilizers has been found satisfactory.

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6 . All India Crop Situations - Rabi (2019-20) as on 31.01.2020

Table: 6.1

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7. Progressive procurement of Rice as on 14.02.2020

Table: 7.1

(lakh tonnes)

State Target in

marketing season 2019-20 (Oct. – Sept.)

Progressive Procurement as on 14.02.2020

In Marketing season 2019-2020

In Marketing season 2018-2019

Andhra Pradesh 40.00 26.44 25.21

Telangana 30.00 31.57 26.99

Bihar 12.00 3.00 2.74

Chhattisgarh 48.00 52.15 39.64

Haryana 40.00 43.03 39.42

Kerala 2.50 1.23 0.69

Madhya Pradesh 14.00 15.35 12.75

Maharashtra 6.00 4.41 2.84

Odisha 34.00 28.74 29.31

Punjab 114.00 108.76 113.34

Tamil Nadu 8.00 3.01 4.35

Uttar Pradesh 33.00 34.21 30.45

Uttrakhand 5.00 6.24 4.58

West Bengal 23.00 8.48 11.08

All-India 416.00 367.86 344.29

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Annexure-III Rainfall for next two Weeks

Weather systems and associated Precipitation & temperature pattern during week 1 (14^th– 20^th February 2020) and week 2 (21^st – 27^th February 2020)

Rainfall for week 1: (14^th – 20^th February, 2020)

 The rain / snow associated with the present WD affecting the western Himalayan region is very likely to reduce significantly from the early morning of tomorrow. However, higher reaches of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh could continue to receive isolated snowfall till 16^th Feb.

Subsequently, a fresh WD could cause isolated to scattered rain / snow over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh on 18^th & 19^th Feb, 2020.

 The prevailing strong northwesterly winds in the lower levels along the northern plains are likely to reduce in strength from 16th Feb. Subsequent changes in the circulation pattern and eastward shift in the low level anti-cyclone are likely to cause moisture incursion from the Bay of Bengal over to central India towards the end of week-1.

 Remnant westerly systems are likely to cause scattered to fairly widespread rain / snow over Arunachal Pradesh during later half of week-1.

 Cumulative precipitation is likely to be below normal over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, west Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, west Bengal, Arunachal Pradesh, south Kerala and south Tamil Nadu and near normal over the rest of the country.

Rainfall for week 2: (21^st – 27^th February, 2020)

 Another WD is likely to affect western Himalayan region during the second half of week-2 (from around 24^th Feb. onwards).

 A wind confluence favouring isolated to scattered convective rainfall over central & eastern India (comprising Madhya Pradesh, north Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and adjoining west Bengal) is likely during the initial days of week-2.

 Arunachal Pradesh is likely to receive scattered to fairly widespread rain / snow during the initial half of the week, in continuation with past week’s rains.

 Easterly winds in the equatorial belt are also likely to strengthen briefly during the initial half of week-2, resulting in isolated rainfall over southern parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

 Cumulatively, above normal precipitation is likely over parts of west Madhya Pradesh, near normal over the rest of the country outside Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Nicobar Islands, where the rainfall is likely to be below normal.

Minimum Temperatures for week 1: (14^th – 20^th February, 2020)

 Night minimum temperatures are likely to remain below normal during a few days over major parts of India outside western parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Gujarat and adjoining east Rajasthan, Madhya Maharashtra, coastal & south interior Karnataka, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, where above normal night temperatures are likely to prevail on some of the days during the week.

Minimum Temperatures for week 2: (21^st – 27^th February 2020)

 Western India and Indo- Gangetic plains are likely to warm up during Week 2. Above normal Night minimum temperatures are likely to prevail over major parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, west Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, north Madhya Maharashtra, Bihar, west Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and coastal and south interior Karnataka. They are likely to remain normal to below normal over the rest of the country.