F. No. 3-1/ 2019-20-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443 Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 24.12.2019
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP
HELD ON 20.12.2019.
Summary observations of the Group on Agenda Items
The All-India level rainfall during the week i.e. 12th December, 2019 – 18th December, 2019 has been 183% higher than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 448% in North West India, by 143% in Central India and by 64% in East & North East India but lower than the LPA by 29% in South Peninsula.
The cumulative rainfall in the country during the post monsoon season i.e. 1st October, 2019 to 18th December, 2019 has been by 35% higher than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 121% in North West India, by 65% in Central India and by 19% in South Peninsula but lower than the LPA by 6% in East & North East India.
For post monsoon season. 1st October, 2019 to 18thDecember, 2019 out of 36 met sub-divisions, 24 met sub-divisions constituting 67% of the total area of the country has received large excess/excess rainfall, 08 met sub-divisions constituting 26% of the total area of the country has received normal rainfall and 04 met sub-divisions constituting 7% of the total area of the country has received deficient/large deficient rainfall.
Central Water Commission monitors 120 major reservoirs in the country which have total live capacity of 170.33 Billion Cubic Meter (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of these, 95 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 125.19 BCM have irrigation potential. Live storage in 120 major reservoirs as on 19th December, 2019 has been 140.08 BCM as against 94.59 BCM on 19.12.2018 (last year) and 101.74 BCM of normal (average of the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 148% of last year’s storage and 138% of average of last 10 year’s storage.
As per latest information available on sowing of Rabi crops, around 85% of the normal area under Rabi crops has been sown upto 20.12.2019. Area sown under all rabi crops taken ogether has been reported 537.21 lakh hectares at All India level as compared to 504.69 lakh hectares in the corresponding period of last year.
The All Commodities inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the month of November, 2019 increased to 0.58% from the level of 0.16% in the month of October, 2019. The inflation rate was 4.47% during the corresponding period of last year.
The Primary Articles inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the month of November, 2019 increased to 7.68% from the level of 6.41% in the
month of October, 2019. The inflation rate was 0.59% during the corresponding period of last year.
The wholesale price index for food items increased to 11.08% from the previous month level of 9.80% and non-food items decreased to 1.93% from the previous month’s level of 2.35%.
Among the foodgrains, inflation as per wholesale price index of Wheat has increased to 8.02%
from the previous month’s level of 6.29% and Pulses to 16.59% from the previous month’s level of 16.57%. The inflation for Paddy decreased to 4.24% from the previous month’s level of 4.50%
and Cereals to 7.93% from the previous month’s level of 8.32%.
All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 20.12.2019 for Kharif Marketing Season (KMS) 2019-20 is 214.68 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 205.28 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year.
1. Post Monsoon Season (Oct. – Dec.) during the week ending 18th December, 2019
Sub-Division wise Weekly Rainfall Forecast is shown in Table-1.1
Rainfall during the week (05th December, 2019 to 18th December, 2019) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 20 sub-divisions, normal in 02 sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 10 and no rain in 04 met sub-division out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
Cumulative rainfall (01st October, 2019 to 18th December, 2019) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 24 met sub-divisions, normal in 08 met sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 04 sub- divisions out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
Table - 1.2: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country1
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table -1.3: Category wise comparative distribution of Sub-division (cumulative rainfall) and All- India Percentage Rainfall Departure for the last five years since: 1st Oct., 2019 to 18th December 2019
1. North-west India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.
Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Goa and Gujarat.
South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Kerala, A & N islands and Lakshadweep.
East & North East India - Bihar, Jharkhand , West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Region Week Ending (18.12.2019) Cumulative (01.10.19 to 18.12.19) (in mm) Devi-
ation (%)
Cate- gory
(in mm) Devi- ation
(%)
Cate- gory
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West India 26.9 4.9 448 LE 96.5 43.6 121 LE
Central India 3.9 1.6 143 LE 122.9 74.3 65 LE
South Peninsular India 5.5 7.7 -29 D 319.4 268.8 19 N
East & North-East India 6.1 3.7 64 LE 151.3 161.3 -6 N
Country as a whole 11.6 4.1 183 LE 158.0 116.9 35 E
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1st October to 17 DEC
2014
16 DEC 2015
21 DEC 2016
20 DEC 2017
19 DEC 2018
18 DEC 2019 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 02 11 13
- 06 04 10
03 02 06 11
01 06 14 20
00 03 02 05
15 09 08 32 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
12 - 11 00 23
08 - 18 00 26
12 13 - 00 25
06 09 - 00 15
13 18 - 00 31
04 00 - 00 04
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
Source: IMD
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 20th Dec., 2019 to 24th Dec., 2019 is shown in Table 1.4
Table: 1.1
All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 30% (-) 20% (-) 43% (-) 8% (-) 42% 35%
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2019
Source: IMD
Sr.
No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 19 DEC 20 DEC 21 DEC 22 DEC 23DEC 24 DEC 25 DEC 1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH D D ISOL ISOL D D D
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA D D D D D D D
4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.&
TRIPURA D D D D D D D
5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. &
SIKKIM D D D D D D D
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL D D D D D D D
7 ODISHA D D D D D D D
8 JHARKHAND D D D ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
9 BIHAR D-- D D D D D D
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH D-- D D D ISOL ISOL D
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH D D D D D D D
12 UTTARAKHAND ISOL-- SCT ISOL D D D D
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI D-- D ISOL D D D D
14 PUNJAB D-- ISOL D D D D D
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH ISOL SCT ISOL D D D D
16 JAMMU & KASHMIR ISOL-- FWS ISOL D D D D
17 WEST RAJASTSAN D D ISOL D D D D
18 EAST RAJASTSAN D D ISOL D D D D
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH D D D ISOL ISOL ISOL D
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH D D D D D ISOL ISOL
21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. &
N.H. D D D D ISOL D D
22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU D D D D D D D
23 KONKAN & GOA D D D ISOL D D D
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA D D D ISOL ISOL ISOL D
25 MARATHAWADA D D D ISOL D D D
26 VIDARBHA D D D D D D D
27 CHHATTISGARH D D D ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM ISOL ISOL D D D D D
29 TELANGANA D D D D D D D
30 RAYALASEEMA D D D D D D D
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOL SCT● TS ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT SCT
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA D D D D D D D
33 NORTS INT.KARNATAKA D D D D D D D
34 SOUTS INT.KARNATAKA D D D D D ISOL ISOL
35 KERALA & MAHE D ISOL TS D D ISOL SCT SCT
36 LAKSHADWEEP D FWS SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
LEGENDS:
WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%) SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL
●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm)
●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm)
●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
FOG * SNOWFALL # HAILSTORM
-COLD WAVE (-4.5 OC to -6.4
OC)
--SEVERE COLD WAVE (< - 6.4)
$TSUNDERSTORM WITS SQUALL/GUSTY WIND DS/TSDUST/TSUNDERSTORM +HEAT WAVE (+4.5 OC to +6.4
OC)
++ SEVERE HEAT WAVE (>
+6.4)
Table: 1.4
Source: IMD
2. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 19.12.2019)
The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 120 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 170.33 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM), which is about 66.06% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
Live Storage in 120 major reservoirs decreased to 140.08 BCM from the previous week’s level of 142.67 BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than the last year’s storage position of 94.59 BCM and the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 101.74 BCM.
Table – 2.1 : For 120 major reservoirs of the country Period Storage as % of
FRL
Storage as % of last year
Storage as % of 10 year’s average level
Current Week Last Week
82 84
148 146
138 137
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 56% on 19/12/2018, 57% on 19/12/2017, 60% on 19/12/2016 and 47% on 19/12/2015.
Source: CWC
There were 116 reservoirs having storage more than 80% of normal storage, 0 reservoir having storage between 51% to 80%, 01 reservoir having storage between 31% to 50%
and 03 reservoirs having storage upto 30% of Normal Storage.
Source: Central Water Commission
3. Fertilizer Position:
Table – 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP during Rabi 2019-20 (As on 19.12.2019)
(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.10.2019 365 1377 377 1269 140
Requirement for Rabi 2019 17904 5208 1773 5186 2567
Estimated Requirement during Dec., 2019 4022 890 318 953 436 Cumulative Receipt upto 19.12.2019 8104 2710 480 2290 1008 Cumulative Availability upto 19.12.2019 8469 4087 857 3559 1148
Cumulative Sales upto 19.12.2019 7840 3033 554 2227 1011
Closing Stock as on 19.12.2019 629 1054 303 1332 137
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW) / Deptt. of Fertilizer
4. Pest & Diseases:
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level (ETL).
Fall Armyworm incidence in Maize crop has been reported at Low to Moderate intensity in 200 hectare surveyed area in Munger district of Bihar.
No shortage of Chemical / Bio-pesticides was reported for any State / UT.
5. Availability position of seeds and fertilizers has been found satisfactory.
6.
Percentage Variations in the Wholesale Price Indices (WPI) of Major items
Table: 6.1
Inflation (year on year)
Period / Commodities Weight Nov-2019 Oct-2019 Nov-2018
All Commodities 100 0.58 0.16 4.47
Primary Articles 22.62 7.68 6.41 0.59
(a) Food Articles 15.26 11.08 9.80 -3.24
Cereals 2.82 7.93 8.32 7.16
Paddy 1.43 4.24 4.50 4.22
Wheat 1.03 8.02 6.29 9.18
Pulses 0.64 16.59 16.57 -5.42
Gram 0.26 5.33 8.03 -14.67
Arhar 0.13 34.82 37.48 2.15
Moong 0.07 20.56 18.29 10.75
Masur 0.05 15.92 12.57 -7.41
Urad 0.09 36.68 22.61 -4.12
Vegetables 1.87 45.32 38.91 -26.71
Potato 0.28 -8.51 -19.60 88.55
Onion 0.16 172.30 119.84 -47.60
Fruits 1.60 4.32 2.72 -2.49
Milk 4.44 1.60 1.32 2.78
Egg, Meat & Fish 2.40 8.15 7.61 0.00
(b) Non-Food Articles 4.12 1.93 2.35 6.40
Oilseeds 1.12 6.33 10.03 10.70
Fuel & Power 13.15 -7.32 -8.27 15.54
7
. All India Crop Situations - Rabi (2019-20) as on 20.12.2019
Table: 7.18.
Progressive procurement of Rice as on 20.12.2019
Table: 8.1
(lakh tonnes)
State Target in
marketing season 2019-20 (Oct. – Sept.)
Progressive Procurement as on 20.12.2019
In Marketing season 2019-2020
In Marketing season 2018-2019
Andhra Pradesh 40.00 4.30 8.51
Telangana 30.00 19.90 21.50
Haryana 40.00 43.03 39.09
Kerala 2.50 1.08 0.56
Madhya Pradesh 14.00 1.03 1.17
Maharashtra 6.00 1.21 1.17
Odisha 34.00 6.44 4.92
Punjab 114.00 108.73 113.16
Tamil Nadu 8.00 0.31 1.29
Uttar Pradesh 33.00 22.19 10.04
Uttrakhand 5.00 6.11 3.42
All-India 416.00 214.68 205.28
