SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OFTHE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 04.06.2021. Summary 

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F. No. 3-1/ 2020-21-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)

Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 08.06.2021

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OFTHE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 04.06.2021.

Summary

 All-India level rainfall during the week, 27 May 2021 to 02 June 2021, has been 75% higher than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 116% in North West India, - Higher by 115% in Central India,

- Higher by 98% in East & North East India, - Lower by 18% in South Peninsula.

 Cumulative rainfall during Pre-Monsoon season, 01 March 2021 to 31 May 2021, has been 18%

higher than the LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 127% in Central India, - Higher by 39% in South Peninsula, - Higher by 09% in North West India, - Lower by 09% in East & North East India.

 Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:

- Large excess/ excess in 26 MET sub-divisions constituting 71% of total area, - Normal in 06 MET sub-division constituting 14% of total area,

- Deficient/large deficient in 04 MET sub-divisions constituting 15% of total area

 Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 130 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 174.23 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).

- Out of these, 105 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 129.21 BCM have irrigation potential.

- Live storage in 130 major reservoirs as on 03 June 2021 was 49.54 BCM, which is:

- 87% of last year’s storage on the same day (03 June 2020) of 57.04 BCM.

- 132% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 37.60 BCM.

 Procurement of Wheat in marketing season RMS 2021-22 is progressing smoothly in procuring states. As on 04.06.2021, over 412.50 LMT has been procured benefitting about 44.74 Lakh farmers whereas corresponding Wheat procurement during RMS 2020-21 was 366.96 LMT.

 As on 04 June 2021, during KMS 2020-21, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 538.95 lakh MT as compared to 489.91 7lakh MT during corresponding period of KMS 2019-20.

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PRE-MONSOON RAINFALL STATUS (March – May) during the week ending 31 May, 2021

1.1 Rainfall

 Rainfall during the week (27 May to 02 June 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 20 met sub-divisions, normal in 06 sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 09 sub-divisions and no rain in 01 sub-division. (Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).

 Cumulative rainfall (01 March 2021 to 31 May 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 26 met sub-divisions, normal in 06 sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 04 sub-divisions.

(Sub-division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).

Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:

Region of India Week Ending (02.06.2021) Cumulative (01.03.21 to 31.05.2021) (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category

Actual Normal Actual Normal

North-West 15.3 7.1 116 LE 125.3 114.4 09 N

Central 15.9 7.4 115 LE 85.2 37.5 127 LE

South Peninsula 16.9 20.7 -18 N 168.7 121.3 39 E

East & North-East 105.5 53.4 98 LE 344.4 376.8 -9 N

Country as a whole 30.2 17.3 75 LE 155.2 131.7 18 N

LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.

Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Table 1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 March 2021 to 31 May 2021

No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall

For the period from 1 March to

31 MAY 2016

31 MAY 2017

31 MAY 2018

31 MAY 2019

31 MAY 2020

31 MAY 2021 Large Excess

Excess Normal Total

- 08 16 24

02 03 13 18

03 06 10 19

01 03 09 13

13 04 11 28

17 09 06 32 Deficient

Large Deficient Scanty

No rain Total

09 - 03 00 12

15 03 - 00 18

12 05 - 00 17

13 10 - 00 23

06 02 - 00 08

04 00 - 00 06

Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00

TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36

All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 3% (-) 2% (-) 11% (-) 25% 20% 18%

Source: IMD

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1.2 Weather Forecast

 Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal (96 to 104% of Long Period Average (LPA)).

 Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 101% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1961-2010 is 88 cm.

 The southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the four homogeneous rainfall is most likely to be Normal over Northwest India (92-108%) and South Peninsula (93-107%). Seasonal rainfall is most likely to be below normal over North east India (<95%) and above normal over Central India (>106%).

 Southwest Monsoon has set in over Kerala on 3^rd June, 2021, against the normal date of 1^st June.

 Southwest monsoon is likely to advance into remaining parts of south Arabian Sea, some parts of central Arabian Sea, remaining parts of Kerala & Lakshadweep, some more parts of Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, some parts of coastal & south interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and some more parts of south and Central Bay of Bengal during 5^th June, 2021.

Rainfall

 Widespread rainfall activity very likely over Northeastern states during next 5days. Isolated heavy rainfall very likely over Arunachal Pradesh during 04^th -06^th June; Assam &

Meghalaya during 04^th -07^th June and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura on 05^th &

06^th June.

 Isolated to scattered rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning and gusty winds very likely over parts of Western Himalayan Region & adjoining plains of Northwest India during 5-6^th June, 2021.

 Scattered to widespread rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning and gusty winds.

Isolated heavy rainfall very likely over Kerala and Karnataka during 5-6^th June, 2021.

Temperature

 Gradual rise by 2-4°C in maximum temperature over most parts of Northwest & East India during next 2-3 days and no significant change thereafter.

 No significant change in maximum temperature over rest parts of the country during next 4- 5 days.

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II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 03 June 2021)

 Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 130 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 174.23 BCM, which is about 67.58% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.

 Live Storage in 130 major reservoirs decreased to 49.54 BCM from the previous week’s level of 50.82 BCM. Current year’s storage position is lower than last year’s storage position of 57.04 BCM and higher than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 37.60 BCM.

Table 2.1: For 130 major reservoirs of the country

Source: CWC

 There were 111 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 07 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 07 reservoirs with storage between 31% to 50% and 05 reservoirs with storage upto 30%.

Source: Central Water Commission

 State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.

Period Storage as % of FRL

Storage as % of Last Year

Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level

Current Week 28 87 132

Last Week 29 85 128

The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 33% on 03.06.2020, 19% on 03.06.2019, 18% on 03.06.2018 and 21% on 03.06.2017.

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III. Fertilizer Position:

Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Kharif 2021 (As on 31.05.2021)

(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP

Opening Stock as on 01.04.2021 341 131 97 617 152

Requirement for Apr. 2021 to Sept 2021 17503 6518 2024 662 2646 Estimated Requirement during May 2021 2643 1087 297 827 378

Cumulative Receipt upto 31.05.2021 4031 815 289 1456 711

Cumulative Availability upto 31.05.2021 4372 946 386 2073 863

Cumulative Sales upto 31.05.2021 4055 740 244 1352 737

Closing Stock as on 31.05.2021 317 206 142 721 126

Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer

IV. Pest & Diseases:

 Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.

V. Seeds:

 Total availability of certified/quality seed is 165.08 lakh quintals against the requirement of 154.50 lakh quintals for Kharif-2021 season in the country. There is a surplus of 10.58 lakh quintals seeds.

 There is sufficient availability of certified/quality seeds of all major Kharif crops for Kharif- 2021 except maize, minor millets, soybean and jute which will meet from National Seed Corporation Ltd., Farm Saved Seed and Private Seed Companies.

VI. Mandi Functioning

 PRICE COMPARISON WITH MSP (on 02 June, 2021)

 Agri produce sold below MSP: Wheat, Paddy, Bajra, Maize, Jowar, Ragi, Arhar, Gram, Moong, Groundnut, Safflower and Sunflower.

 Agri produce sold above MSP: Barley, Urad, Masur, Copra, Mustard, Sesamum, Soyabean, Cotton and Jute.

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VII. Progressive Procurement as on 04

^th

June, 2021

Table 7.1: Rice

(In lakh tonnes) State Procurement Estimates

during KMS 2020-21 (Kharif & Rabi Crops)

Progressive Procurement as on 04. 06. 2021

In Marketing season 2020-2021

Andhra Pradesh 72.00 46.59 49.94

Telangana 105.00 71.43 71.58

Bihar 30.00 23.40 13.41

Chhattisgarh 60.00 39.76 51.85

Haryana 44.00 37.89 43.07

Kerala 5.80 4.96 4.67

Madhya Pradesh 27.00 24.97 17.40

Maharashtra 15.88 9.08 8.87

Odisha 48.00 47.06 40.86

Punjab 113.00 135.89 108.76

Tamil Nadu 29.00 22.30 15.80

Uttar Pradesh 37.00 44.78 37.90

Uttarakhand 6.70 7.12 6.81

West Bengal 26.80 15.62 14.80

All-India 637.97 538.95 489.91

Source: Food &PD

Table 7.2: Wheat

State Procurement Estimates during RMS 2020-21

(Rabi Crops)

Progressive Procurement as on 04. 06. 2021

Punjab 130.00 132.10 127.12

Haryana 80.00 84.93 74.00

Uttar Pradesh 55.00 42.93 25.36

Madhya Pradesh 135.00 128.08 124.60

Bihar 7.00 2.05 0.04

Rajasthan 22.00 19.91 15.02

Uttarakhand 2.20 1.22 0.35

All-India 433.50 412.50 366.96

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Annexe-III/p-1

Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 03 – 09 June, 2021 for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2021

Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 03 JUN 04 JUN 05 JUN 06 JUN 07 JUN 08 JUN 09 JUN

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS ISOL SCT SCT FWS^L WS^L^● WS WS

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH FWS FWS^● WS^L^● WS^L^● WS FWS SCT

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA FWS^● WS^● WS^L^● WS^L^● WS^● WS FWS

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA FWS FWS WS^L^● WS^L^● WS SCT WS 5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM SCT^L SCT SCT FWS WS^L^● WS SCT 6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL ISOL^L ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL^L^● ISOL ISOL

7 ODISHA SCT^L^● SCT^L ISOL ISOL SCT^L ISOL SCT

8 JHARKHAND ISOL^L ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT

9 BIHAR ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL FWS

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL^L D D D ISOL ISOL FWS

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL^L D D ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

12 UTTARAKHAND SCT^L SCT^L ISOL ISOL ISOL^L ISOL ISOL

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI ISOL^L ISOL ISOL D D D D

14 PUNJAB SCT^L ISOL ISOL ISOL D D D

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH SCT^L SCT^L ISOL ISOL D D D

16 JAMMU & KASHMIR AND LADAKH SCT^L ISOL^L ISOL ISOL D D D

17 WEST RAJASTSAN ISOL^TD ISOL^TD ISOL^L ISOL D D D

18 EAST RAJASTSAN ISOL^L ISOL^L ISOL^L ISOL D D D

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH SCT^L ISOL^L ISOL^L ISOL^L ISOL^L ISOL D 20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL^L ISOL^L ISOL^L ISOL^L ISOL^L D ISOL

21 GUJARAT REGION ISOL^L ISOL^L ISOL^L SCT^L ISOL^L D ISOL

22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH D ISOL^L ISOL^L ISOL^L ISOL^L D SCT

23 KONKAN & GOA WS^L^● WS^L^● WS^L^● FWS FWS SCT FWS

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA FWS^L^● WS^L^● FWS SCT SCT ISOL ISOL

25 MARATHAWADA SCT^L SCT^L SCT^L ISOL ISOL D D

26 VIDARBHA SCT^L SCT^L ISOL^L ISOL^L ISOL^L ISOL D

27 CHHATTISGARH SCT^L SCT^L ISOL^L ISOL^L ISOL^L ISOL SCT

28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM FWS^L^● FWS^L^● SCT^L^● SCT ISOL SCT FWS

29 TELANGANA FWS^L^● FWS^L^● ISOL^L ISOL^L ISOL^L ISOL ISOL

30 RAYALASEEMA FWS^L^● FWS^L^● FWS^L SCT ISOL FWS SCT

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL SCT^L^● FWS^L^● SCT^L^● ISOL^L ISOL^L FWS SCT

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA WS^L^● WS^L^● WS^L^● FWS FWS FWS WS

33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA FWS^L^● FWS^L SCT^L^● ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT

34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA WS^● WS^● FWS SCT SCT FWS WS

35 KERALA & MAHE WS^L^● WS^L^● WS^L^● FWS^L FWS^L WS WS

36 LAKSHADWEEP WS WS WS FWS FWS FWS WS

LEGENDS:

WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)

SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO RAINFALL

●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ^●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ^●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)

F Fog * Snowfall ^DDuststorm ^$Thunderstorm with Squall/Gust ^L Thunderstorm with Lightning ^#Thunderstorm with Hail

 Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Normal -4.5ÔC to -6.4ÔC) - -Severe Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Norma ≤ -6.5ÔC)

Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal +4.5ÔC to +6.4ÔC) ⁺ Severe Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal ≥ +6.5ÔC)

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Annex-III/ P.2

Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 04 June – 08 June 2021:

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