SUBJECT

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GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE

(CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)

Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 06.12.2021

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OFTHE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD 03.12.2021.

Summary

 All-India level rainfall during the week, 25 November to 01 December 2021, has been 68% higher than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 247% in South Peninsula.

- Lower by 99% in North West India,

- Lower by 94% in East & North East India, - Lower by 86% in Central India,

 Cumulative rainfall during Monsoon season, 01 October 2021 to 01 December 2021, has been 48%

higher than the LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 105% in North West India, - Higher by 72% in South Peninsula, - Higher by 17% in Central India,

- Higher by 4% in East & North East India.

 Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:

- Large excess/ excess in 26 MET sub-divisions constituting 68% of total area, - Normal in 05 MET sub-division constituting 17% of total area,

- Deficient/large deficient in 05 MET sub-divisions constituting 15% of total area

 Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 133 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 172.46 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).

- Out of these, 108 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 129.71 BCM have irrigation potential.

- Live storage in 133 major reservoirs as on 02 December 2021 was 135.07 BCM, which is:

- 97% of last year’s storage on the same day (02 December 2020) of 139.36 BCM.

- 115% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 117.67 BCM.

 During the current Rabi season 2021, (as on 03.12.2021), 438.51 lakh ha area has been sown as compared to 413.11 lakh ha during 2020-21 during the same period.

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 As on 03 December 2021, during KMS 2021-22, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 199.29 lakh LMT as compared to 218.34 lakh MT procured during corresponding period of KMS 2020-21. About 18.89 Lakh farmers have been benefitted from ongoing KMS procurement.

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POST-MONSOON RAINFALL STATUS (October – December) during the week ending 01 December, 2021

1.1 Rainfall

 Rainfall during the week (25 November to 01 December 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 09 met sub-divisions, normal in 01 sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 11 sub-divisions and 15 met sub-divisions received no rainfall. (Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).

 Cumulative rainfall (01 October 2021 to 01 December 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 26 met sub-divisions, normal in 05 sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 05 sub-divisions.

(Sub-division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).

Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:

LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.

Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Table1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years (01 October 2021 to 01 December 2021)

No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall

For the period from 1 October to

30 NOV 2016

29 NOV 2017

28 NOV 2018

04 DEC 2019

02 DEC 2020

01 DEC 2021 Large Excess

Excess Normal Total

03 01 10 14

01 05 13 19

00 01 05 06

11 12 06 29

02 09 08 19

15 11 05 31 Deficient

Large Deficient Scanty

No rain Total

14 08 - 00 22

06 11 - 00 17

09 21 - 00 30

06 01 - 00 07

10 07 - 00 17

05 00 - 00 05

Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00

TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36

All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 44% (-) 13% (-) 49% 34% 0% 48%

Source: IMD

Region of India Week Ending (01.12.2021) Cumulative (01.10.21 to 01.12.2021) (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category

Actual Normal Actual Normal

North-West 0.0 3.1 -99 LD 72.2 35.2 105 LE

Central India 0.4 2.7 -86 LD 81.6 69.7 17 N

South Peninsula 41.0 11.8 247 LE 421.3 244.8 72 LE

East & North-East 0.3 4.4 -94 LD 160.0 154.2 4 N

Country as a whole 8.2 4.9 68 LE 158.0 107.0 48 E

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1.2 Weather Forecast

Week 1(02 – 08 December)

 No significant weather is likely over any other part of the country.

 Overall, rainfall activity is likely to be

o over east & northeast India; over most parts of south Peninsular & adjoining central India;

o below normal over northwest India including Western Himalayan Region and o near normal or no rain over rest parts of the country.

Week 2 (09 – 15 December)

 There is likely significant reduction in rainfall over the country as compared to week 1.

 No active Western Disturbance is likely to affect northwest India during next one week.

 Overall Rainfall activity is likely to be

o Rainfall activity is likely to be below normal over the country except north-eastern states and southeast Peninsular, where it is likely to be near normal to above normal.

Minimum Temperature for week 1 & 2: (01 - 15 December, 2021)

 Fall in minimum temperatures by 2-3°C very likely over Northwest India during next 2 days and then rise gradually by 2- 4°C thereafter.

 Fall in minimum temperatures by 2-4°C likely over many parts of Central India during1st half of the week and significant change thereafter.

 No significant change in minimum temperatures over rest parts of the country during the week.

 Overall, these are likely to be above normal by 2-4⁰C over northeast & adjoining east India, Uttar Pradesh and East Madhya Pradesh; and likely to be near normal or slightly below normal over most parts of rest India.

 During the week 2, There is likely gradual fall in minimum temperatures over the most parts of the country as compared to week 1. These are likely to be slightly below normal by 1 to 2⁰ C or near normal over the country except northeastern states, where these are likely to be above normal by 2-3⁰C.

 No significant Cold wave is likely over any part of the country during the week 1 & 2.

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II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 02 December, 2021)

 Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 133 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 172.46 BCM, which is about 66.89% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.

 Live Storage in 133 major reservoirs decreased to 135.07 BCM from the previous week’s level of 136.74 BCM. Current year’s storage position is lower than last year’s storage position of 139.36 BCM and higher than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 117.67 BCM.

Table 2.1: For 133 major reservoirs of the country

Source: CWC

 There were 112 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 13 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 05 reservoirs with storage between 31% to 50% and 03 reservoirs with storage upto 30%.

Source: Central Water Commission

 State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.

Period Storage as % of FRL

Storage as % of Last Year

Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level

Current Week 78 97 115

Last Week 79 96 113

The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 81% on 02.12.2020, 85% on 02.12.2019, 60% on 02.12.2018 and 62% on 02.12.2017.

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III. Fertilizer Position:

Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Rabi 2021 (As on 01.12.2021)

(In 000’ Tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP

Opening Stock as on 01.10.2021 4269 1460 656 2787 1729

Requirement for Oct. 2021 to March 2022 17901 5873 1687 6086 3012 Estimated Requirement during December, 21 3946 948 277 1109 529

Cumulative Receipt upto 01.12.2021 5127 2262 212 2046 1057

Cumulative Availability upto 01.12.2021 9396 3722 867 4833 2786

Cumulative Sales upto 01.12.2021 5335 2920 496 2816 1601

Closing Stock as on 01.12.2021 4061 802 372 2017 1185

Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer

IV. Pest & Diseases:

 Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.

 Incidence of flower thrips & leaf thrips in chilli from Andhra Pradesh & Telangana.

 Fall Army Worm incidence is reported in Maize at Trace to Moderate intensity in Karur district from Tamil Nadu.

 Bacterial Streak incidence is reported in paddy at Moderate intensity in Trichy district from Tamil Nadu.

V. Seeds:

 A requirement of 310.86 lakh quintals of certified/quality seed indicated by the State for Rabi 2021-22 in September, 2021. Against this, an all India availability of 333.75 lakh quintals certified/quality seed was reported. An overall surplus of 22.89 lakh quintals of seed is available for Rabi 2021-22.

 There is sufficient availability of certified/quality seeds of all major Rabi crops for Rabi 2021- 22 except maize, buck wheat, peas, rajmash and lethyrus which will meet from National Seed Corporation Ltd., Farm Saved Seed and Private Seed Companies.

VI. Mandi Functioning

 PRICE COMPARISON WITH MSP (on 01 December, 2021)

 Agri produce sold below MSP: Paddy, Bajra, Maize, Jowar, Ragi, Arhar, Gram, Moong, Groundnut and sunflower.

 Agri produce sold above MSP: Wheat, Barley, Urad, Masur, Copra, Mustard, Sesamum, Soyabean, Cotton and Jute.

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VII. All-India Crop Situation Rabi (2021-22) as on 03-12-2021

Table 7.1

(In lakh ha.)

Crop Name

Normal Area for whole Rabi

Season

Area sown reported

Absolute Change This Year

2021

% of Normal for whole

season

Last Year 2020

Wheat 303.06 200.66 66.2 193.42 7.24

Rice 42.51 9.74 22.9 9.38 0.36

Jowar 31.75 18.95 59.7 20.91 -1.96

Maize 18.15 6.17 34.0 6.33 -0.16

Barley 6.14 4.96 80.8 4.46 0.51

Total Coarse Cereals 56.05 30.49 54.4 32.11 -1.62

Total Cereals 401.62 240.89 60.0 234.91 5.98

Gram 95.66 81.43 85.1 80.01 1.42

Lentil 13.90 13.03 93.7 12.48 0.55

Peas 7.98 7.92 99.2 8.05 -0.13

Kulthi(Horse Gram) 2.00 2.67 133.2 3.05 -0.38

Urad 9.07 3.22 35.5 3.50 -0.28

Moong 9.98 0.64 6.4 0.85 -0.21

Lathyrus 3.62 2.69 74.4 2.35 0.35

Others 4.44 2.37 53.4 3.19 -0.82

Total Pulses 146.67 113.98 77.7 113.48 0.50

Total Foodgrains 548.29 354.86 64.7 348.38 6.48

Rapeseed & Mustard 61.55 77.62 126.1 59.57 18.06

Groundnut 7.05 2.70 38.3 2.15 0.55

Safflower 0.90 0.59 65.8 0.42 0.17

Sunflower 1.86 0.75 40.3 0.56 0.19

Linseed 2.53 1.62 64.0 1.67 -0.05

Total Oilseeds (Nine) 73.91 83.65 113.2 64.73 18.92

All Crops 622.20 438.51 70.5 413.11 25.40

Source: AS Division, DES

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VIII. Progressive Procurement as on 03

^rd

December, 2021

Table 8.1: Rice

(In lakh tonnes)

State Progressive Procurement as on

03. 12.2021 In Marketing season

2021-2022

In Marketing season 2020-2021

Andhra Pradesh 0.60 1.35

Telangana 13.13 13.65

Bihar 0.62 0.01

Chhattisgarh - -

Gujarat 0.17 0.13

Haryana 37.05 37.56

Kerala 0.71 0.81

Madhya Pradesh 0.03 1.34

Maharashtra 0.22 0.34

Odisha 0.05 1.62

Punjab 125.19 135.86

Tamil Nadu 3.93 3.31

Uttar Pradesh 9.24 15.81

Uttarakhand 7.74 6.20

West Bengal

All-India 199.29 218.34

Source: Food &PD

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Annex-III/ P.I

Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 02 Dec – 08 Dec, 2021 for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST -2021

Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 02 DEC 03 DEC 04 DEC 05 DEC 06 DEC 07 DEC 08 DEC

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS WS^● WS FWS FWS SCT ISOL ISOL

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH DRY DRY DRY ISOL SCT ISOL DRY

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA DRY DRY ISOL FWS^● WS^●● SCT ISOL

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA DRY DRY ISOL FWS^● WS^●● SCT SCT

5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM DRY DRY DRY ISOL SCT DRY DRY

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL DRY ISOL WS^●● WS^●● FWS DRY DRY

7 ODISHA ISOL SCT^●● WS^●●● FWS^●● ISOL DRY DRY

8 JHARKHAND DRY ISOL SCT SCT ISOL DRY DRY

9 BIHAR DRY DRY DRY ISOL DRY DRY DRY

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL DRY DRY ISOL DRY DRY DRY

12 UTTARAKHAND SCT ISOL DRY SCT SCT DRY DRY

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI ISOL DRY DRY ISOL DRY DRY DRY

14 PUNJAB ISOL DRY ISOL SCT DRY DRY DRY

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH ISOL DRY ISOL FWS FWS DRY DRY

16 JAMMU & KASHMIR AND LADAKH DRY DRY SCT SCT SCT DRY ISOL

17 WEST RAJASTHAN DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

18 EAST RAJASTHAN ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

21 GUJARAT REGION SCT^● DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

23 KONKAN & GOA FWS^● ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA FWS ISOL FWS DRY DRY DRY DRY

25 MARATHAWADA SCT ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

26 VIDARBHA ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

27 CHHATTISGARH DRY DRY ISOL ISOL ISOL DRY DRY

28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM DRY SCT^●● SCT^●● ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

29 TELANGANA ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

30 RAYALASEEMA DRY ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL DRY ISOL

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOL SCT FWS^● FWS^● FWS^● ISOL DRY

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT DRY DRY

33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA SCT SCT SCT ISOL DRY DRY DRY

34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT DRY DRY

35 KERALA & MAHE FWS FWS FWS WS^● WS^● SCT SCT

36 LAKSHADWEEP FWS SCT SCT SCT SCT DRY DRY

LEGENDS:

WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)

SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO RAINFALL

●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ^●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ^●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)

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Annex-III/ P.2

Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 03 December – 07 December 2021:

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