SUBJECT

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GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)

Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 29.11.2021

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OFTHE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD 26.11.2021.

Summary

 All-India level rainfall during the week, 18 November to 24 November 2021, has been 189% higher than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 290% in South Peninsula.

- Higher by 171% in Central India, - Higher by 26% in North West India, - Lower by 45% in East & North East India,

 Cumulative rainfall during Monsoon season, 01 October 2021 to 24 November 2021, has been 47%

higher than the LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 125% in North West India, - Higher by 63% in South Peninsula, - Higher by 21% in Central India,

- Higher by 7% in East & North East India.

 Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:

- Large excess/ excess in 26 MET sub-divisions constituting 70% of total area, - Normal in 05 MET sub-division constituting 15% of total area,

- Deficient/large deficient in 05 MET sub-divisions constituting 15% of total area

 Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 133 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 172.46 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).

- Out of these, 108 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 129.71 BCM have irrigation potential.

- Live storage in 133 major reservoirs as on 25 November 2021 was 136.74 BCM, which is:

- 96% of last year’s storage on the same day (25 November 2020) of 141.86 BCM.

- 113% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 121.08 BCM.

 During the current Rabi season 2021, (as on 26.11.2021), 346.13 lakh ha area has been sown as compared to 322.70 lakh ha during 2020-21 during the same period.

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 As on 26 November 2021, during KMS 2021-22, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 185.75 lakh LMT as compared to 205.08 lakh MT procured during corresponding period of KMS 2020-21. About 16.51 Lakh farmers have been benefitted from ongoing KMS procurement.

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POST-MONSOON RAINFALL STATUS (October – December) during the week ending 24 November, 2021

1.1 Rainfall

 Rainfall during the week (18 November to 24 November 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 19 met sub-divisions, normal in 04 sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 05 sub-divisions and 08 met sub-divisions received no rainfall. (Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).

 Cumulative rainfall (01 October 2021 to 24 November 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 26 met sub-divisions, normal in 05 sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 05 sub- divisions.(Sub-division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).

Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:

LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.

Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Table1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years (01 October 2021 to 24 November 2021)

No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall

For the period from 1 October to

23 NOV 2016

22 NOV 2017

21 NOV 2018

27 NOV 2019

25 NOV 2020

24 NOV 2021 Large Excess

Excess Normal Total

- 04 10 14

01 06 13 20

01 00 06 07

12 09 09 30

02 07 09 18

16 10 05 31 Deficient

Large Deficient Scanty

No rain Total

08 - 14 00 22

05 11 - 00 16

07 22 - 00 29

04 02 - 00 06

11 07 - 00 18

05 00 - 00 05

Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00

TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36

All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 42% (-) 10% (-) 49% 29% (-) 5% 47%

Source: IMD

Region of India Week Ending (24.11.2021) Cumulative (01.10.21 to 24.11.2021) (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category

Actual Normal Actual Normal

North-West 4.0 3.2 26 E 72.2 32.1 125 LE

Central India 9.2 3.4 171 LE 81.2 67.0 21 E

South Peninsula 67.1 17.2 290 LE 380.3 233.0 63 LE

East & North-East 2.4 4.3 -45 D 159.7 149.8 7 N

Country as a whole 17.9 6.2 189 LE 149.8 102.1 47 E

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1.2 Weather Forecast

Week 1(25 November – 01 December)

 No active Western Disturbance is likely to affect northwest India during next one week and weather is very likely to be dry over northwest India.

 Overall, rainfall activity is likely to be above normal over south Peninsular & adjoining central India (including Andaman & Nicobar Islands & Lakshadweep); below normal over Western Himalayan Region and northeastern states and near normal or no rain over rest parts of the country.

Week 2 (02 – 08 December)

 Light to moderate scattered/fairly widespread rainfall very likely to continue over south Peninsular India during most days of the week. Isolated heavy falls is also likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal and Kerala during 2nd half of the week.

 No active Western Disturbance is likely to affect northwest India during next one week.

 Rainfall activity is likely to be above normal over extreme south Peninsular and northeast &

adjoining east India; below normal over Western Himalayan Region and near normal or no rain over rest parts of the country.

Minimum Temperature for week 1 & 2: (25 November to 08 December, 2021)

 During week 1, Gradual rise in minimum temperatures by 2-3°C over most parts of Northwest India during 1st half of the week and fall gradually by 3-5°C thereafter.

 Gradual fall in minimum temperatures by 2-3°C very likely over many parts of East India during 1st half of the week and no significant change thereafter.

 No significant change in minimum temperatures over remaining parts of the country during the week.

 Overall, these are likely to be near normal or above normal by about 2⁰ C over north &

adjoining central India; and likely to be above normal by 2 to 4⁰C over most parts of rest India.

 No significant Cold wave is likely over any part of the country.

 During the week 2, Minimum temperatures are likely to be below normal by 1 to 3⁰ C over most parts of northwest India; and near or above normal over most parts of the rest parts of the country.

 No significant Cold wave is likely over any part of the country.

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II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 25 November, 2021)

 Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 133 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 172.46 BCM, which is about 66.89% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.

 Live Storage in 133 major reservoirs increased to 136.74 BCM from the previous week’s level of 136.36 BCM. Current year’s storage position is lower than last year’s storage position of 141.86 BCM and higher than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 121.08 BCM.

Table 2.1: For 133 major reservoirs of the country

Source: CWC

 There were 113 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 11 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 06 reservoirs with storage between 31% to 50% and 03 reservoirs with storage upto 30%.

Source: Central Water Commission

 State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.

Period Storage as % of FRL

Storage as % of Last Year

Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level

Current Week 79 96 113

Last Week 79 95 110

The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 82% on 25.11.2020, 88% on 25.11.2019, 62% on 25.11.2018 and 64% on 25.11.2017.

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III. Fertilizer Position:

Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Rabi 2021 (As on 25.11.2021)

(In 000’ Tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP

Opening Stock as on 01.10.2021 4269 1460 656 2787 1729

Requirement for Oct. 2021 to March 2022 17901 5873 1687 6086 3012 Estimated Requirement during November, 21 4086 1713 341 1226 780

Cumulative Receipt upto 25.11.2021 4575 2049 195 1875 965

Cumulative Availability upto 25.11.2021 8844 3509 850 4662 2694

Cumulative Sales upto 25.11.2021 4558 2656 451 2532 1460

Closing Stock as on 25.11.2021 4286 853 400 2130 1234

Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer

IV. Pest & Diseases:

 Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.

 During the week pest status report of Thrips on Chilli in Andhra Pradesh and Telengana.

V. Seeds:

 A requirement of 310.86 lakh quintals of certified/quality seed indicated by the State for Rabi 2021-22 in September, 2021. Against this, an all India availability of 333.75 lakh quintals certified/quality seed was reported. An overall surplus of 22.89 lakh quintals of seed is available for Rabi 2021-22.

 There is sufficient availability of certified/quality seeds of all major Rabi crops for Rabi 2021- 22 except maize, buck wheat, peas, rajmash and lethyrus which will meet from National Seed Corporation Ltd., Farm Saved Seed and Private Seed Companies.

VI. Mandi Functioning

 PRICE COMPARISON WITH MSP (on 24 November, 2021)

 Agri produce sold below MSP: Bajra, Maize, Jowar, Ragi, Arhar, Gram, Urad and Moong.

 Agri produce sold above MSP: Wheat, Paddy, Barley, Masur, Copra, Groundnut, Mustard, Safflower, Sesamum, Soyabean, sunflower, Cotton and Jute.

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VII. All-India Crop Situation Rabi (2021-22) as on 26-11-2021

Table 7.1

(In lakh ha.)

Crop Name

Normal Area for whole Rabi

Season

Area sown reported

Absolute Change This Year

2021

% of Normal for whole

season

Last Year 2020

Wheat 303.06 138.35 45.7 133.84 4.51

Rice 42.51 7.78 18.3 7.89 -0.12

Jowar 31.75 17.15 54.0 18.34 -1.18

Maize 18.15 4.49 24.7 4.52 -0.04

Barley 6.14 3.92 63.7 3.57 0.35

Total Coarse Cereals 56.05 25.87 46.2 26.80 -0.93

Total Cereals 401.62 172.00 42.8 168.53 3.46

Gram 95.66 70.01 73.2 65.21 4.80

Lentil 13.90 10.94 78.7 11.07 -0.12

Peas 7.98 7.18 90.0 7.23 -0.05

Kulthi(Horse Gram) 2.00 2.26 112.6 2.87 -0.61

Urad 9.07 2.41 26.6 2.35 0.06

Moong 9.98 0.45 4.5 0.60 -0.15

Lathyrus 3.62 2.48 68.6 2.11 0.38

Others 4.44 1.80 40.5 2.58 -0.78

Total Pulses 146.67 97.53 66.5 94.02 3.52

Total Foodgrains 548.29 269.53 49.2 262.55 6.98

Rapeseed & Mustard 61.55 71.85 116.7 55.96 15.88

Groundnut 7.05 2.14 30.3 1.72 0.42

Safflower 0.90 0.43 48.0 0.33 0.10

Sunflower 1.86 0.69 37.1 0.46 0.24

Linseed 2.53 1.19 47.1 1.40 -0.21

Total Oilseeds (Nine) 73.91 76.60 103.6 60.15 16.45

All Crops 622.20 346.13 55.6 322.70 23.43

Source: AS Division, DES

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VIII. Progressive Procurement as on 26

^th

November, 2021

Table 8.1: Rice

(In lakh tonnes)

State Progressive Procurement as on

26.11.2021 In Marketing season

2021-2022

In Marketing season 2020-2021

Andhra Pradesh 0.31 0.47

Telangana 6.50 9.09

Bihar 0.56 0.00

Chhattisgarh - -

Gujarat 0.10 0.07

Haryana 37.05 37.37

Kerala 0.44 0.51

Madhya Pradesh - -

Maharashtra 0.02 0.10

Odisha - -

Punjab 124.67 135.70

Tamil Nadu 3.16 3.24

Uttar Pradesh 6.06 12.13

Uttarakhand 6.32 6.06

West Bengal

All-India 185.75 205.08

Source: Food &PD

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Annex-III/ P.I

Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 25 Nov – 01 Dec, 2021 for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST -2021

Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 25 NOV 26 NOV 27 NOV 28 NOV 29 NOV 30 NOV 01 DEC

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS WS^●● FWS FWS FWS WS WS WS

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

7 ^ODISHA DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY ISOL

8 JHARKHAND DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

9 BIHAR DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

12 UTTARAKHAND DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

14 PUNJAB DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

16 JAMMU & KASHMIR AND LADAKH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

17 WEST RAJASTHAN DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

18 EAST RAJASTHAN DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY ISOL

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY ISOL ISOL

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY ISOL

21 GUJARAT REGION DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY ISOL SCT

22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

23 KONKAN & GOA DRY DRY DRY ISOL ISOL WS FWS

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA DRY DRY DRY DRY ISOL WS FWS

25 MARATHAWADA DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY SCT FWS

26 VIDARBHA DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY ISOL SCT

27 CHHATTISGARH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM ISOL ISOL^● SCT^● FWS^●● WS^●● ISOL ISOL

29 TELANGANA ISOL DRY DRY ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

30 RAYALASEEMA ISOL ISOL^● FWS^● WS^●● WS^●● ISOL ISOL

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL FWS^●● WS^●● WS^●● WS^●● WS^● SCT SCT

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA SCT SCT SCT FWS FWS WS WS

33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA ISOL DRY DRY ISOL SCT SCT WS

34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA SCT SCT SCT FWS WS SCT WS

35 KERALA & MAHE FWS^● FWS^● FWS^● WS^● WS^● WS FWS

36 LAKSHADWEEP WS WS WS WS WS FWS SCT

LEGENDS:

WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)

SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO RAINFALL

●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ^●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ^●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)

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Annex-III/ P.2

Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 26 November – 30 November 2021:

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