CWWG-17092021-Minutes _1.pdf

F. No. 3-1/ 2020-21-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)

Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 21.09.2021

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OFTHE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD 17.09.2021.

Summary

 All-India level rainfall during the week, 09 September 2021 to 15 September 2021, has been 53%

higher than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 150% in Central India, - Higher by 53% in North West India, - Lower by 27% in East & North East India, - Lower by 26% in South Peninsula.

 Cumulative rainfall during Monsoon season, 01 June 2021 to 15 September 2021, has been 4%

lower than the LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 12% in South Peninsula, - Lower by 11% in North West India, - Lower by 11% in East & North East India.

- Lower by 3% in Central India,

 Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:

- Large excess/ excess in 08 MET sub-divisions constituting 18% of total area, - Normal in 21 MET sub-division constituting 62% of total area,

- Deficient/large deficient in 07 MET sub-divisions constituting 20% of total area

 Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 130 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 171.96 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).

- Out of these, 105 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 129.21 BCM have irrigation potential.

- Live storage in 130 major reservoirs as on 16 September 2021 was 127.05 BCM, which is:

- 86% of last year’s storage on the same day (16 September 2020) of 146.97 BCM.

- 100% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 127.45 BCM.

 During the current Kharif season 2021(as on 17.09.2021), 1105.19 lakh ha. area has been sown as compared to the 1114.50 Lakh ha during corresponding period of last year.

 Inflation (WPI Food Index) has declined from 4.46% in July 2021 to 3.43% in August 2021.

Status of change of WPI in August 2021 over July 2021 for some major items is as under.

- All Commodities: increase from 11.16% to 11.39%.

- Primary Articles: increase from 5.72% to 6.20%

- Food Articles: declined from 0.00% to -1.29%.

- Non-food Articles: increase from 22.94% to 28.76%.

- Pulses: increase from 8.34% to 9.41%.

- Cereals: increase from -2.79% to -1.13%.

- Wheat: increase from -2.35% to -0.19%.

- Paddy: increase from -2.71% to -2.18%.

- Fruits and Vegetables: declined from -6.71% to -10.13%.

- Milk: increased from 1.84% to 2.95%.

 Current Marketing Season RMS 2021-22 has concluded in wheat procuring states and till date (As on 18.08.2021) 433.44 LMT procurement has been done for central pool, (which is all time high), whereas corresponding Wheat procurement during RMS 2020-21 was 389.93 LMT. About 49.20 Lakh farmers have already been benefitted from ongoing RMS procurement.

 As on 17 September 2021, during KMS 2020-21, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 597.99 lakh MT as compared to 513.15 lakh MT procured during corresponding period of KMS 2019-20. About 130.48 Lakh farmers have been benefitted from ongoing KMS procurement.

MONSOONRAINFALL STATUS (June – September) during the week ending 15 September, 2021

1.1 Rainfall

 Rainfall during the week (09 September to 15 September2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 21 met sub-divisions, normal in 02 sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 13 sub-divisions. (Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).

 Cumulative rainfall (01 June 2021 to 15 September 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 08 met sub-divisions, normal in 21 sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 07 sub- divisions.(Sub-division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).

Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:

LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.

Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Table1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 June 2021 to 15 September 2021

No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall

For the period from 1 June to

14 SEPT 2016

13 SEPT 2017

12 SEPT 2018

18 SEPT 2019

16 SEPT 2020

15 SEPT 2021 Large Excess

Excess Normal Total

- 03 24 27

00 06 23 29

00 01 26 27

00 11 18 29

02 11 19 32

00 08 21 29 Deficient

Large Deficient Scanty

No rain Total

09 - 00 00 09

07 00 - 00 07

09 00 - 00 09

07 00 - 00 07

04 00 - 00 04

07 00 - 00 07

Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00

TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36

All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 5% (-) 6% (-) 8% 5% 7% (-) 4%

Source: IMD

Region of India Week Ending (15.09.2021) Cumulative (01.06.21 to 15.09.2021) (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category

Actual Normal Actual Normal

North-West 47.0 30.8 53 E 501.9 561.6 -11 N

Central India 112.2 44.9 150 LE 882.3 907.4 -3 N

South Peninsula 24.9 33.6 -26 D 713.8 638.7 12 N

East & North-East 53.2 72.8 -27 D 1136.5 1278.0 -11 N

Country as a whole 65.6 42.9 53 E 772.7 807.4 -4 N

1.2 Weather Forecast

Week 1 (16 – 22 September)

 The monsoon trough lies south of its normal position. It is very likely to remain south of its normal position during most days of the week.

 Increase in rainfall activity over East Rajasthan and Gujarat state from 18^th September, 2021.

 A fresh spell of heavy rainfall likely over East India from 18^th September, 2021.

 Increase in rainfall activity along Konkan region with isolated heavy falls towards second half of the week.

 Light to moderate isolated/scattered rainfall activity likely over rest parts of country during most days of the week.

 Overall rainfall activity is very likely to be above normal over northwest & central India, near normal over east & northeast India and below normal over south Peninsular India.

Week 2 (23 - 29 September)

 The monsoon trough is very likely to be active and near normal/ south of its position during most days of the week.

 A fresh spell of rainfall activity over east & central India commencing from 25^th September for subsequent 4-5 days.

 Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy falls very likely over northwest, central India during most of the days.

 Overall above normal rainfall activity likely over northwest & central India, near normal over south Peninsular India and below normal over east & northeast India.

 Conditions are not likely to be favorable for commencement of withdrawal of monsoon from parts of northwest India before the end of the week 2. This is due to the expected normal to active monsoon conditions and as a consecutive formation of two cyclonic circulations over the Bay of Bengal and their west-northwestwards movement across Central & adjoining northwest India.

II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 16 September 2021)

 Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 130 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 171.96 BCM, which is about 66.70% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.

 Live Storage in 130 major reservoirs increased to 127.05 BCM from the previous week’s level of 116.97 BCM. Current year’s storage position is lower than last year’s storage position of 146.97 BCM and average of last 10 year’s storage position of 127.45 BCM.

Table 2.1: For 130 major reservoirs of the country

Source: CWC

 There were 102 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 17 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 07 reservoirs with storage between 31% to 50% and 04 reservoirs with storage upto 30%.

Source: Central Water Commission

 State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

In BCM

ALL-INDIA RESERVOIR TREND

(WATER STOCK IN 2021 VS 2020 & AVERAGE OF LAST 10 YEARS)

This Year

Last Year

Avg. of Last Ten Years

Week Ending

Period Storage as % of

FRL

Storage as % of Last Year

Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level

Current Week 74 86 100

Last Week 68 81 94

The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 85% on 16.09.2020, 85% on 16.09.2019, 75% on 16.09.2018 and 59% on 16.09.2017.

III. Fertilizer Position:

Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Kharif 2021 (As on 16.09.2021)

(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex/

NPK

SSP

Opening Stock as on 01.04.2021 341 131 97 617 152

Requirement for Apr. 2021 to Sept 2021 17503 6518 2024 6187 2596 Estimated Requirement during September,

2021

2504 1039 342 1038 429

Cumulative Receipt upto 16.09.2021 13818 3858 1006 5365 2301 Cumulative Availability upto 16.09.2021 14159 3989 1103 5982 2453

Cumulative Sales upto 16.09.2021 13947 3835 1032 5530 2314

Closing Stock as on 16.09.2021 212 154 71 452 139

Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer

IV. Pest & Diseases:

 Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.

V. Seeds:

 Kharif sowing is almost over. Requirement & availability of seeds for Rabi season has not yet been indicated by Seed division. It is expected to be available by end of September, 2021

VI. Mandi Functioning

 PRICE COMPARISON WITH MSP (on 15 September, 2021)

 Agri produce sold below MSP: Wheat, Paddy, Bajra, Maize, Jowar, Ragi, Moong, Safflower and Sunflower.

 Agri produce sold above MSP: Barley, Arhar, Gram, Urad, Masur, Copra, Groundnut, Mustard, Sesamum, Soyabean, Cotton and Jute.

VII. All-India Crop Situation Kharif (2021-22) as on 17-09-2021

Table 7.1

(In lakh ha.)

Crop Name

Normal Area for whole Kharif Season

Area sown reported

Absolute Change This Year

2021

% of Normal for whole

season

Last Year 2020

Rice 395.66 414.18 104.7 413.34 0.84

Jowar 19.52 14.65 75.1 15.13 -0.48

Bajra 73.43 63.40 86.3 68.67 -5.27

Maize 74.68 81.52 109.2 80.24 1.29

Total Coarse Cereals 183.59 174.70 95.2 178.83 -4.13

Total Cereals 579.24 588.88 101.7 592.17 -3.30

Tur 45.64 50.02 109.6 48.18 1.85

Urad 37.96 39.43 103.9 38.65 0.78

Moong 33.48 35.25 105.3 35.38 -0.13

Kulthi 2.18 0.57 26.2 0.56 0.01

Others 16.70 15.45 92.5 15.12 0.33

Total Pulses 135.95 140.72 103.5 137.89 2.83

Total Foodgrains 715.20 729.60 102.0 730.07 -0.46

Groundnut 41.70 49.14 117.8 50.98 -1.83

Soyabean 112.88 121.77 107.9 121.20 0.56

Sunflower 1.42 1.51 106.8 1.23 0.29

Sesamum 16.48 13.31 80.7 13.99 -0.69

Nigerseed 2.04 1.13 55.4 1.57 -0.44

Castorseed 8.98 6.96 77.5 7.34 -0.38

Total Oilseeds 183.50 193.95 105.7 196.45 -2.50

Cotton 123.59 119.66 96.8 126.97 -7.31

Sugarcane 47.53 54.97 115.7 54.08 0.89

Jute & Mesta 7.33 7.01 95.6 6.94 0.07

All- Crops 1077.15 1105.19 102.6 1114.50 -9.30

Source: Crops Divisions, DAC&FW

VIII. Progressive Procurement as on 17

^th

September, 2021

Table 8.1: Rice

(In lakh tonnes) State Procurement Estimates

during KMS 2020-21 (Kharif & Rabi Crops)

Progressive Procurement as on 17.09.2021

In Marketing season 2020-2021

In Marketing season 2019-2020

Andhra Pradesh 72.00 55.93 53.89

Telangana 105.00 94.54 74.54

Bihar 30.00 23.84 13.41

Chhattisgarh 60.00 46.73 51.85

Haryana 44.00 37.89 43.07

Kerala 5.80 5.20 4.75

Madhya Pradesh 27.00 24.97 17.40

Maharashtra 15.88 12.63 11.57

Odisha 48.00 52.62 47.28

Punjab 113.00 135.89 108.76

Tamil Nadu 29.00 28.55 20.26

Uttar Pradesh 37.00 44.78 37.90

Uttarakhand 6.70 7.18 6.82

West Bengal 26.80 18.90 16.08

All-India 637.97 597.99 513.15

Table 8.2: Wheat

State Procurement Estimates during RMS 2021-2022

(Rabi Crops)

Progressive Procurement as on 18.08.2021

In Marketing season 2021-2022

In Marketing season 2020-2021

Punjab 130.00 132.22 127.14

Haryana 80.00 84.93 74.00

Uttar Pradesh 55.00 56.41 35.77

Madhya Pradesh 135.00 128.16 129.42

Bihar 7.00 4.56 0.05

Rajasthan 23.25 23.40 22.25

Uttarakhand 2.20 1.44 0.39

Gujarat 2.00 1.70 0.77

All-India 435.34 433.44 389.93

Source: Food &PD

Annexe-III/p-1

Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 16– 22 September, 2021 for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST -2021

Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 16 SEP 17 SEP 18 SEP 19 SEP 20 SEP 21 SEP 22 SEP

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS WS^● WS FWS FWS FWS FWS WS

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH FWS^● FWS^● SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA FWS^● FWS^● SCT SCT SCT FWS WS

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA FWS^● FWS^● FWS^● FWS FWS FWS WS

5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM FWS WS^● WS FWS FWS SCT FWS

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL FWS FWS WS^● WS^● WS^● WS WS

7 ODISHA FWS FWS FWS WS^● WS^● SCT SCT

8 JHARKHAND SCT SCT SCT FWS FWS SCT WS

9 BIHAR FWS FWS SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH WS^●●● SCT^● ISOL SCT SCT WS FWS

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH WS^●●● SCT^● ISOL SCT SCT SCT SCT

12 UTTARAKHAND FWS^●● ISOL ISOL FWS^● FWS^● SCT FWS

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI FWS SCT ISOL ISOL SCT SCT ISOL

14 PUNJAB SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT ISOL ISOL

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH SCT^● SCT ISOL SCT FWS^● SCT ISOL

16 JAMMU & KASHMIR AND LADAKH DRY DRY DRY ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

17 WEST RAJASTSAN ISOL SCT SCT^● SCT^● SCT^● SCT ISOL

18 EAST RAJASTSAN FWS^● FWS^● WS^●● WS^●● FWS^●● WS FWS

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH WS^●● FWS^●● SCT^● SCT^● SCT^● FWS SCT

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH WS^● FWS SCT SCT SCT WS SCT

21 GUJARAT REGION FWS^● SCT FWS^● WS^●● WS^●● WS WS

22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH FWS^● SCT SCT FWS^● FWS^● SCT SCT

23 KONKAN & GOA WS FWS FWS WS WS WS WS

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT SCT SCT ISOL

25 MARATHAWADA ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

26 VIDARBHA FWS SCT SCT SCT FWS SCT SCT

27 CHHATTISGARH FWS SCT SCT FWS FWS^● FWS SCT

28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

29 TELANGANA ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT FWS^● SCT SCT

30 RAYALASEEMA ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOL ISOL SCT^● FWS^●● SCT ISOL SCT

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA WS FWS SCT SCT SCT SCT FWS

33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT

34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT

35 KERALA & MAHE FWS^● SCT SCT FWS FWS SCT FWS

36 LAKSHADWEEP FWS SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT

LEGENDS:

WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)

SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO RAINFALL

●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ^●●Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ^●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)

Annex-III/ P.2

Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 17 – 21 September2021: