ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ
ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺩ :
ﺯﺍ ﻱﺩﺮﺑﺭﺎﻛ
ﺪﻧﻮﻤﻳﺍﺩ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ -
ﺲﻟﺮﻴﻣ
ﻲﻧﺎﻴﻛ ﺮﺑﮋﻫ ﺰﻴﺒﻣﺎﻛ
ﺷ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﺘﺸﻬﺑ ﺪﻴﻬ
k_kiani@yahoo.com
ﻲﻣﻼﻏ ﻡﺎﻬﻟﺍ
*
ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ،ﻥﺎﻨﻤﺳ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻲﻣﻼﺳﺍ ﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺱﺭﺪﻣ elham_gholami4@yahoo.com
ﻲﻳﻼﻛﺩﻭﺮﻫﺎﻴﺳ ﺖﺨﺑﻮﻧ ﺩﺍﻮﺟ ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭﺍ ﺱﺎﻨﺷﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﺰﻳﺭ
javad_nob2008@yahoo.com ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :
1 / 4 / 89 ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :
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ﻩﺪﻴﻜﭼ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ
ﺯﺍ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻪﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻝﻮﻤﺸﻣ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻭ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻑﺮﺼﻣﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ .
ﺯﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺮﻫ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ
ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻩﺪـﻳﺍ ًﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻝﻮﻤﺸﻣ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻭ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻭ ﻝﺁ
ﻚـﻫﺩ ﻩﺩ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻱﺮﻬﺷ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻲﻃ ﻲﻳﺎﺘﺳﻭﺭ ﻭ
ﻱﺎـﻫ ) 1386 - 1378 ( ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪـﺑ ﻭ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎـﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺶﺸﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﺎﻫ .
ﺪـﻧﻮﻤﻳﺍﺩ ﻱﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺲﭙـﺳ -
ﺲﻟﺮﻴﻣ ) 1997 ( ﺥﺮﻧ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻭ ﺪﻧﺪـﺷ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
. ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺮﮕﻧﺎـﻴﺑ ،ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ
ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺮﻔـﺻ ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻱﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻧ ﺯﺍ ﺰـﻳﺮﮔ ﺢﻄـﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻪﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ
ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ًﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ
4 ﻲﻣ ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻠﻌﻓ ﻲﺧﺮﻧ ﻚﺗ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻪﺑﻮﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﺪﻨﻛ
.
ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ :JEL K34, H21, C33
ﻩژﺍﻭ ﺪﻴﻠﻛ :ﺎﻫ
ﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ،ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ،ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ًﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﺕ
ﺪـﻧﻮﻤﻳﺍﺩ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ،ﻝﺁ –
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ،ﺲﻟﺮﻴﻣ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
* - ﻩﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ ﻱ ﻝﻮﺌﺴﻣ .
1 - ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻞﺤﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﺟ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻞﻣﺎﻛ ﻦﻴﻣﺄﺗ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲﻓﺍﺪـﻫﺍ ﺯﺍ ،ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻩﺭﺍﻮﻤﻫ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻥﺎﻣﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻥﺍﺩﺮﻤﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺰﻳﺭ
. ﻪﻫﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ،ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ،ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﻭ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺮﻴﻏ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺭﺎﻨﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﺑ ﻲﻓﺎـﻛ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﻡﺪـﻋ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻁﺎﺒـﻀﻧﺍ
ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻱ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺎﻛ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺩﻮﺒﻧ ﻭ
ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺐﺒـﺳ ﺍ
ﺖـﺳ ﻪـﻛ ﺎـﺑ ﻦـﻳﺍ ـﺴﻣ ﺌ ﻪﻠ
ﺩﺭﻮﺧﺮﺑ ﻱ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻌﻄﻘﻣ .
ﺎﻣﺍ ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺶـﺷﻮﭘ ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺖـﻟﻭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎـﺟ ﺎـﻬﻨﺗ ﻪـﻧ
ﻡﺰﻠﺘـﺴﻣ
ﻲﺑ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﻮﻠﺟ ﻪﻳﻭﺭ
ﻱ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﺟ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺪـﻨﻣﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﻪﻜﻠﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ
ﻡﺎـﻈﻧ ﺖـﻳﻮﻘﺗ
ﻣ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻭ .
ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﻮﻣﺍ ﻥﺎﻣﺯﺎﺳ ،ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ
ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﻲﻳﺎﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﻑﺮﻃ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ،ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺏﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻭ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻚﻳ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺑﺎﻴﺘﺳﺩ ﺪـﻳﺪﺟ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻑﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﺮﺑ ﻢﻛﺎﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻲـﻠﻌﻓ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ .
ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻱﺎﻫ
، ﻚﻳ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﻩﺎﻣ ﺮﻬﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ 1387
ﻡﺯﻻ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺍﺮﺟﻻﺍ .
ﻪـﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ،ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ
ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻱ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻑﺪـﻫ ﻭ ﺖـﻟﻭﺩ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻑﺪﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ
ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻲﻫﺎﻓﺭ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﺖﺳﺍ .
ﻥﺎﻣﺯﺎﺳ ﻲﻫﺩ ﻪـﻣﺪﻘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺲـﭘ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ
، ﺕﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻭ ﻱﺮـﻈﻧ ﻲﻧﺎـﺒﻣ
ﻪـﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻪﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻥﺁ ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻭﺰـﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻲـﻣ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﻥﺁ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺩﻮـﺷ
. ﺯﺍ ﻞـﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻥﺎـﻳﺎﭘ ﺭﺩ
ﻊﻤﺟ ،ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻬﻨﺸﻴﭘ ﻭ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ
ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﺎﻫﺩﺎ ﺖﺳﺍ
.
2 - ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﺒﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻣ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ
ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻱ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺕﺎـﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻦﺘﻓﺮـﮔ ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﺘﺳﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺵﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﻭ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺖﻟﺍﺪﻋ .1
ﻪـﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺪـﺟ ﺵﻼـﺗ ﻦﻴـﻟﻭﺍ
ﻱﺰﻣﺭ ﻚﻧﺍﺮﻓ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ )
1927
2( ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ .
ـﻳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻉﻮـﺿﻮﻣ ﺭﺎـﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻱﺰـﻣﺭ ،ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻦ
ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ
ﻪـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺏﺎﺘﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻮﮕﻴﭘ ﻱ
ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﻲﻣﻮـﻤﻋ
ﺥﺮﻧ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻲﮕﻧﻮﮕﭼ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
، ﻪﺑ ﻱﻭ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻫﺩ .
،ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻪﻠﺌﺴﻣ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ
ﻝﻮﻣﺮﻓ ﺐﻟﺎﻗ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ
ﻪﻘﺑﺎـﺳ ﺎـﻳﺯ ﻱ ﻱﺩ
ﻪﺘﺷﻮﻧ ﻭ ﻢﻫﺩﺯﻮﻧ ﻥﺮﻗ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺪﻧ ﻲﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻞﻴﻣ ﺕﺭﺍﻮﺘﺳﺍ ﻥﺎﺟ ﻥﻮﭼ ﻲﻧﺎﻧﺍﺩﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺩﺩﺮﮔ .
1 ﺩﺍﻮﺟ ﺪﻴﺳ ،ﻢﻴﻘﻣﺭﻮﭘ- )
1373 (.
2- Ramsey,F.P,(1927).
ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ،ﻲﻠﻛﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻞـﻳﺍﻭﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﻱﻮـﺴﻧﺍﺮﻓ ﻥﺎﻧﺍﺩﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺎـﻴﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ
ﻪﻫﺩ ﻱ 1970 ﻩﺩﺮﺘـﺴﮔ ﻲﻜﻳﺭﻮـﺌﺗ ﺕﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻭ ﺖﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺪﺟ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ
ًﺎﻴﻟﺎﻏ ﻪﻛ ﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺹﻮﺼﺧ ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻪﺳ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺘﺒﻣ
ﻞﻣﺎـﺷ ﻪـﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱﺪـﻨﺑ :
ﻱﻮـﮕﻟﺍ
1ﻱﺰﻣﺭ ﺖﻟﺭﻮﻛ ﻩﺪﻋﺎﻗ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ، -
2ﮓﻴﻫ ﺲﻴﻟﺮﻴﻣ ﻭ ﺪﻧﻮﻤﻳﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺪﻧﺩﻮﺑ 3
. ﻱﺭﻮـﺌﺗ ﻥﺎـﻴﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ،ﺲﻴﻟﺮﻴﻣ ﻭ ﺪﻧﻮﻤﻳﺍﺩ ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻩﺎﻓﺭ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻭ ﻩﺮﻔﻧ ﺪﻨﭼ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺐﻟﺎﻗ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ
ﻪﺒﻨﺟ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻥﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﻭ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﻱ
ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﺖﻟﺍﺪﻋ ﺮـﺴﻴﻣ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻢﻴﻘﺘـﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺪﻧﺩﻮﻤﻧ . ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ،ﻭﺭ .
ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺭﻮﻛﺬـﻣ ﺮـﺑ ﻲـﻨﺘﺒﻣ ﻪﻟﺄـﺴﻣ
ﻥﻮـﺴﮔﺮﺑ ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻩﺎـﻓﺭ ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﻥﺩﻮـﻤﻧ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪـﺣ -
ﺩﺍﺮـﻓﺍ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎﺗ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻥﻮﺴﻠﺋﻮﻣﺎﺳ
h h h
v =v (q , q ,..., q , y )1 2 N
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﺩﺩﺮﮔ . ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ vh
ﻢﻴﻘﺘـﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﺖـﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ
ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ
،ﻡﺍh yh
ﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺭﺍ
ﻭ ﻡﺍh ﺪﻨﺘـﺴﻫ ﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻩﺪـﻨﻨﻛ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗq .
ﺪـﻴﻗ
ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺎﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻪﻛ
H h
i i
h
X X
=
=
å
1
ﻻﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻞﻛ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻱ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑi :
) 1 (
R0=
å
T Xi i
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ
R0
ﻭ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺮـﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ Ti
ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻞﻛ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺮﻫ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫ
ﺖﺳﺍi . ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﻲﺑﺎﻳﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪـﺣ ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ ﻪـﺑ ،ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ
ﻁﺮﺷ ﻭ ﻞﻴﻜﺸﺗ ﮋﻧﺍﺮﮔﻻ ﻪﺒﺗﺮﻣ
ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻠﺌﺴﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻝﻭﺍ ﺪﻳﺁ
:
) 2 (
h N H h
MAX : L w(v ) T Xi i R i h l
é ù
ê ú
= + l -
ê= = ú
ë
å å
0û1
) 3 (
H h H N H xh
L wh. v xhk Ti i
qk h v qk h i h l qk
L N H T Xi ih R i h l
é ¶ ù
¶ = ¶ ¶ + lêê + úú=
¶ = ¶ ¶ êë = = = ¶ úû
¶ = - =
¶l = =
å å å å
å å
0
1 1 1 0
0 0 1
ﺍﺮﺑ ﻢﻳﺭﺍﺩ ،ﻱﻭﺭ ﺩﺎﺤﺗﺍ ﺱﺎﺳ :
1- Ramsey,F.P,(1927).
2- Corlett,W.J and Hague,D.C (1933).
3- Diamond,P.A and Mirrlees,J.A (2001).
h
h h
h k h
k h k h
h k
v q v v
x x .
v q y
y
¶ ¶ ¶ ¶
= - ® = -
¶ ¶ ¶
¶
ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ،ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ )
3 ( ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﺷﻮﻧ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ
:
) 4 (
h h
H H H
h h h
k k
h h h
h 1 k h 1 h 1
w v w v w
. . .x . .x
v q v y v
= = =
¶ ¶ ¶ ¶ ¶
= - = - a
¶ ¶ ¶ ¶ ¶
å å å
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ
h
h v
y a =¶ ﺩﺮﻓ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ¶ ﺖﺳﺍh
. ﻪـﺑ ﻭﻼـﻋ ﻭ ﺪـﻧﻮﻤﻳﺍﺩ ،ﻩ
ﺲﻟﺮـﻴﻣ ﻪـﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ) 3 ( ﺩﺮـﻓ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻲﻳﺎــﻬﻧ ﺖـﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻒـﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺎـﺑ ﺍﺭ h
h h
h
( w. )
u f = ¶ a ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ¶
ﺪﻧﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻲﺴﻳﻮﻧ :
) 5 (
H h h.xk H.Xk NTi Xqki
h i
N
T Xi i R i
é ¶ ù
ê ú
j - l + =
ê ¶ ú
= ë = û
- =
=
å å
å
0
1 1
0 0 1
k=1,...N
،ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
xh
ﺮﻓ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ k
ﺩ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻡﺍh
،ﻡﺍ k ،ﺎـﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻞـﻛ ﺩﺍﺪـﻌﺗH
Xk
ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻞﻛ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ
،ﻡﺍk ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻊـﺿﻭ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ Ti
i،ﻻﺎﻛ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ q ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻱ
،ﻡﺍi Xi qk
¶
ﻱﻻﺎـﻛ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ¶
ﻡﺍ i
ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻡﺍk
،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ Xi
ﻱﻻﺎـﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺎـﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻞـﻛ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ ،ﻡﺍi
R0
ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﺮﻈﻧ
.
،ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ fh
ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ
ﺩﺮﻓ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﺳﺍh
. ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻞﺣ ﺎﺑ )
5 ( ﻲﻣ ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
ﺖﻓﺎﻳ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺲﻟﺮﻴﻣ ﻭ ﺪﻧﻮﻤﻳﺍﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﻬﻨﺸﻴﭘ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ .
2 - ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻣ ﻪﻨﻴﻣﺯ
ﻱ ﻣ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎ ﺪﻨﺑ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻛﺎـﺣ ﻪـﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱ
ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﻥﺁ ﺖﻟﺭﻮﻛ ،ﻱﺰﻣﺭ ﻱﺎﻫﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫ -
ﻭ ﮓﻴﻫ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺲﻟﺮـﻴﻣ ﻭ ﺪﻧﻮﻤﻳﺍﺩ
ﻪﻛ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ ﻱﺎﻨﺒﻣ
ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ
ﺎﻫ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻱ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ
ﺖﺳﺍ .
ﺰﺘﻴﻠﮕﻴﺘﺳﺍ ﻭ ﻥﻮﺴﻨﻴﻜﺗﺍ ؛ﻝﺎﺜﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ )
1972
1( ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻪﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺍ ﻬﺑ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻪـﻨﻴ ﻱ
1- Atkinson, A and Stiglitz, J. (1972).
ﻱﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻥﺎﻣﺯﺎﺳ ﻭ ﺍﺩﺎﻧﺎﻛ ،ﺪﺋﻮﺳ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺎﭘﻭﺭﺍ (OEEC) ﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ
ﻪ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧﺪﻴﺳﺭ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﻪـﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﺥﺮـﻧ
ﻱﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺮـﺑ ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ
ﻱﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶـﺸﻛ ﻪﻛ ﻡﺍﻭﺩﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ،ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ،ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻻﺎﺑ .
ﺍﺮﺘﻴﻣ ﻭ ﻱﺪﻴﻫ )
1980
1( ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱﺍ ﻪـﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺮـﺑ ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ
ﻲﻋﺎــﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻩﺎــﻓﺭ ﻊﺑﺎــﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺰــﻣﺭ ﻥﻮﻧﺎــﻗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘــﺳﺍ ﺎــﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺎﺘــﺴﻠﮕﻧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺎــﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻥﻮــﺴﮔﺮﺑ
-
ﺪﻧﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻥﻮﺴﻠﺋﻮﻣﺎﺳ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﻛ
ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ
ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺒﻧ ﻥﺎﺴﻜﻳ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻲﺧﺮﻧ ﻚﺗ
ﻪﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻦﻜﻤﻣ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻪﺘﻓﺭ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺎﻓﺭ .
ﻱﺭ ) 1986
2( ﻪـﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﺩﻮـﺧ
ﻪـﺑ
ﺥﺮﻧ ﺖﻴﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫ
) ﺪﻴﻘﻣ ﻲﻄﺧﺮﻴﻏ ﺕﺎﺤﻴﺟﺮﺗ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻭ ﻲﻄﺧ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ (RNLPS)
3( ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ .
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺥﺮﻧ ،ﺪﻫﺩ
ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻪـﻜﻠﺑ ﺖـﻴﻤﻛ ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ ﺎـﻬﻨﺗ ﻪـﻧ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺪﻨﺘــﺴﻫ ﺕﻭﺎــﻔﺘﻣ ﺰــﻴﻧ ﺖــﻣﻼﻋ .
ﺍﺮﻳﻮﻜﻴــﺳ )
1998
4( ﻪــﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ
» ﺕﺎــﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻪــﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱﺎــﻫ ﻱ
ﺮﺑ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﻞﻳﺯﺮﺑ ﻱﺍ
: ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﻭ ﺖﻟﺍﺪﻋ ﺐﻴﻛﺮﺗ «
ﻪﻛ ﺪﻴﺳﺭ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺥﺮﻧ
ﺮـﺑ ﺕﺎ
ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻱﺭ ﻭ ﻮﻟ ﻚﻠﺑ )
1992
5( ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ
» ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺎﻴﻟﺍﺮﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ «
ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ
ﺖـﻟﻭﺩ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺪﻣﺁ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻭﺩ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ،ﻩﺮﻔﻧ ﺪﻨﭼ ﻱﺰﻣﺭ ﻥﻮﻧﺎﻗ )
ﺖـﻟﻭﺩ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ
ﺪﻌﺑ ﻭ ﻞﺒﻗ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺟﺍ ﺯﺍ
( ﺪﻧﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ .
ﺥﺮﻧ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺰﻴﭼﺎﻧ ﻑﻼﺘﺧﺍ ،ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻫﺩ
. ﺶﻧﺍﺭﺎـﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻮﻧﺎﺳﺁ )
2003
6( ﺭﺩ
ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻞـﻳﺯﺮﺑ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ
ﻭ ﻩﺮﻔﻧ ﺪﻨﭼ ﻱﺎﻴﻧﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺰﻣﺭ ﻥﻮﻧﺎﻗ ﻥﻮﺴﮔﺮﺑ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻩﺎﻓﺭ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ
- ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻥﻮﺴﻠﺋﻮﻣﺎﺳ ﺪـﻧﺍ
.
ﺎﻤﻴﺷﻮﻛﻮﻓ ﻭ ﻮﻧﺎﺳﺁ )
2006
7( ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﮓـﻴﻫ ﻭ ﺖﻟﺭﻮﻛ ﻩﺪﻋﺎﻗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺍ
ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺯﺎـﻴﻧ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺡﻮﻄﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ
،ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺩﺰﻤﺘﺳﺩ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻭ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﺎﺑ
ﺨﻣ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻭﺩ ﻒﻠﺘ
) ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﻭ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ
ﻲﺒﺳﺎﻨﺗ ( ﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻦﭘﺍژ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻪ
ﻭ ﺪﻧﺍ ﺪﻧﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺥﺮـﻧ ،
ﻪـﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻱﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ
ﻩﺎﻓﺭ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻥﺎﺴﻜﻳ َﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺭ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺎـﺑ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﺭﻮﻛﺬـﻣ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﻭﺩ
1- Heady, C.J & Mitra, P.K, (1980).
2- Ray , R. (1986a).
3- Restricted Non-Linear Preference System.
4- Siqueira , R. B.(1998).
5- Blacklow, P & R. Ray, (1992).
6- Asano,S. And Luiza, A. & Barbosa, N.H. & Fiuza, P.S. (2003).
7- Asano, S and Fukushima,T (2006).
ﻲﻣ ﻢﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻴﺒﺷ ﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ
. ﻲﻣ ﻲﺧﺮﻧ ﻚﺗ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ،ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻚﻳ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ
ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ .
ﻲﻣﺮﻬﺟ ﻱﻮﺳﻮﻣ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ )
1374
1( ،ﻩﺮـﻔﻧ ﺪـﻨﭼ ﻱﺎـﻴﻧﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺰﻣﺭ ﻥﻮﻧﺎﻗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ
ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱﺮﻬـﺷ ﻱﺎـﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺖﺸﻫ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ .
ﻥﻼﺟﺎﺑ ) 1386
2( ﻥﺎﻳﺎﭘ ﺭﺩ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻪﻣﺎﻧ
ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ
ﺮـﺑ
ﻱﺎـﻴﻧﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺰـﻣﺭ ﻩﺪـﻋﺎﻗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻩﺪﻤﻋ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺖﺸﻫ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻥﻮﺴﮔﺮﺑ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻩﺎﻓﺭ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻭ ﻩﺮﻔﻧ ﺪﻨﭼ -
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻥﻮﺴﻠﺋﻮﻣﺎﺳ .
4 - ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻦﻴﻴﺒﺗ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ
ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﻋﺎﻗ
ﺪـﻧﻮﻤﻳﺍﺩ ﺲﻟﺮـﻴﻣ-
) 2001 ( ـﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪـﺑ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺐ
ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ
. ﻑﺪـﻫ
ﻩﺪﻋﺎﻗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ
، ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻩﺎﻓﺭ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﻢﻤﻳﺰﻛﺎﻣ )
ﻲـﻨﻌﻳ
ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻞﺤﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ (
ﺖـﺳﺍ . ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻞـﺣ ﻝﺎـﺒﻧﺩ ﻪـﺑ ،ﻭﺭ
ﻪﻟﺄﺴﻣ ﺴﻴﺳ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻢﺘ
) 5 ( ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ .
ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻪـﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﻑﺪﻫ ﻪﻛ ﺎﺟ ﻩﺩﻭﺰـﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ
ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺍﺬﻟ ،ﺖﺳﺍ )
5 ( ﻱﺎﺟ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻱﺎـﺟ ﻪـﺑ vat
ﻪﺘـﺷﻮﻧ ﺮـﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑT
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ :
) 6 ( o
o
= -
ú= úû ù êê
ë é
¶ + ¶
l - f
å
å å
=
= =
N i
i i H h
N
i k
i i h k
h k
R X vat
q vat X X
. H x
.
1
0
1 1
ﺭﺩ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ) 6 ( ﻤﺗ ، ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻤﻫ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻣﺎ )
5 ( ﻲﻣ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺪﻧﻮـﺷ
. ﺹﻮـﺼﺧ ﺭﺩ ﺎـﻣﺍ
ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ )
6 ( ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻛﺫ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻪﺘﻜﻧ ﻭﺩ :
1 ( ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ vati
ﺯﺍ ﺪـﺣﺍﻭ ﻚـﻳ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺷﺎﻧ ﻩﺩﻭﺰـﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ
ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻡﺍi . ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺬﻟ ﺍﻭ ﺮﻫ ﺮﺑ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﻛ ﺎﺟ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺯﺍ ﺪﺣ
ﻲﻣ ﻊﺿﻭ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻲﻣ ﺍﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺍﺬﻟ ،ﺩﻮﺷ
ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ
7 ﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻲﻓﺮﻌﻣ :
) 7
i (
i i
t vat
= q vati=t qi i
1 - ﻲﻣﺮﻬﺟ ﻱﻮﺳﻮﻣ ﻪﻧﺎﮕﻳ )
1374 .(
2 - ﻥﻼﺟﺎﺑ ﺮﺒﻛﺍ ﻲﻠﻋ )
1386 .(
2 ( ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ fi ﺩﺮـﻓ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻡﺍh
ﻥﻮﺴﻨﻴﻜﺗﺍ ﺖﻓﺎﻴﻫﺭ )
1975
1( ﻲﻣ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻲﻣ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ :
) 8 (
h h
h h
c.(Y ) V (Y)
V (Y) c.ln(Y )
= - e - e
=
1 1
ﺭﺩ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ) 8
h (،
ﺩﺮﻓ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ V ﺩﺮـﻓ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎﺗ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻡﺍh
ﻡﺍh h) (Y ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻱﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑﺎﻧ ﺯﺍ ﺰﻳﺮﮔ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻭ )
(e ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ .
ﻁﺮـﺷ
ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺮﻌﻘﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻡﺯﻻ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ e ³
. ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ
ﻱ ) 8 ( ،
ﺩﺮﻓ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻡﺍh
:
) 9 (
h
h h
h
V c.(Y ) Y
¶ -e
f = =
¶
ﺖﺳﺍﺭ ﻑﺮﻃ ﺏﺮﺿ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ
ﻱ ) 9 ( ﺭﺩ )
1 1
Y Y e ( e ﺎﺑ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ )
1 ( ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮﺧ ،ﺖﺳﺍ :
) 10 (
h h
(Y ) .c.(Y ) Y
e -e
f =
1
1
ﺭﺩ ﺩﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺮﺗﺮﻴﻘﻓ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ
ﻱ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ،ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺍﺰﻴﻟﺎﻣﺮﻧ f =1 1
ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ
ﻥﺁ ،ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺩﺮﻓ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻩﺎﮔ
ﺑ ﻡﺍh
ﻪ ﺪﻳﺁ ﻲﻣﺭﺩ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ :
) 11 (
h h
(Y ) Y f = e
1
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ) 11 ( ﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﺩﺮﻓ ﺪﻣ
ﻡﺍ h
h ) (f ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺍﺭ
ﺩﺮﻓ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ 1
ﺪﻫﺩ . ﺽﺮﻓ ﺎﺑ e 00
ﺩﺮﻓ ﻭ
،ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺮﺗﺮﻴﻘﻓ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ 1 fh
ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﺮﺗ ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ .
ﻲﻣ ﺮﻈﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﻴﻘﻓ ﺩﺮﻓ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺪﺳﺭ
ﻱﺮﺗ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻨﻏ ﺩﺮﻓ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ .
ﻥﺎﻨﭼ ،ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﺮﺗﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻢﻛ ﺩﺮﻓ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ،ﻲﻤﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻪﭼ
ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ) ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ( ﺥﺮﻧ ﺎﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺩﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ،ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ e
) ﺰﻓﺍ ﺶﻳﺍ ( ﺖﻓﺎﻳ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ .
ﻥﺪﺷ ﻚﻳﺩﺰﻧ ﻭ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺩﺪﺠﻣ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺍﺬﻟ
ﻲﻣ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ،ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻪﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﺶﻘﻧ e
ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻱ . ،ﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺍﺭ e
ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻱﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑﺎﻧ ﺯﺍ ﺰﻳﺮﮔﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ
1- Atkinson, A.B. (1975).
ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﺖﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ 1
. ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﻛ e =0ﺮﮔﺍ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺮﻫ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
ﻲﻨﻏ ﻭ ﻦﻳﺮﺗﺮﻴﻘﻓ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺮﺗ
ﺭﺩ ﺩﺮﻓ ﻦﻳ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ
ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﺴﻜﻳ .
ﻱﺎـﺟ ﺎﺑ ﻝﺎﺣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬـﮔ
ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ) 7 ( ﻭ ) 11 ( ﻻﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﺘـﺳﺩ ﻲـﺴﻳﻮﻧ ﻩﺭﺎـﺑﻭﺩ ﻭ ﺕ
) 6 ( ،
ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮﺧ :
) 12 (
H (YYh) .xhk HXk Nt qi i qkXi
h i
N
t q Xi i i R k ( ,..., N) i
é ¶ ù
e - lê + ú=
ê ¶ ú
= ë = û
- = =
=
å å
å
1
0
1 1
0 1
0 1
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ) 12 ( ﺎﺑ ﻲﻄﺧﺮﻴﻏ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺳﺩ ﻚﻳ (n+1)
ﻭ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ (n+1)
ﻝﻮﻬﺠﻣ
ﻲﻣ ﻡﺮﻧ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺁ ﻞﺣ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺭﺍﺰﻓﺍ
) Matlab (
ﺥﺮﻧ ، ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ
ﺵﺯﺭﺍ
ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ N
ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻭ ti
l ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪﻛ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻩﺎﻓﺭ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﻱ
ﺪﻣﺁ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻓﺎﺿﺍ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻚﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺯﺍ .2
ﻞﺣ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺒﻗ ﺎﻣﺍ
،ﺭﻮﺑﺰﻣ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺳﺩ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺼﺘﺨﻣ ﻲﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻢﻴﻨﻛ
.
5 - ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺳﺩ ﻞﺣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺕﻻﺩﺎــﻌﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﺘــﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮــﺟﻮﻣ ﻱﺎــﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ )
12
Xi (،
qk
¶
، ¶
R0 i،
،q
،H
،Xi
Xi
،
h
xk
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ . ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ،ﻦﻴﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ qi
Xi،
، Xi h، xk
ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ
ﺍi ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ،ﻡ ﻱﻻﺎـﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺎـﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ ﻞـﻛ ،ﻡﺍi
ﺭﺍﺪـﻘﻣ ،ﻡﺍi
ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻡﺍh
ﻲﻣ ﻡﺍk
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ ﻥﺁ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫ
ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﻪﻣﺎﻨﻟﺎﺳ ﻭ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻱ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺪﻨﺘـﺴﻫ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘـﺳﺍ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ .
ﺩﺍﺪـﻌﺗ H
ﻲﻧﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ )
ﻲﻳﺎﺘﺳﻭﺭ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻬﺷ (
ﻲﻣ ﻚﻫﺩ ﺐﺴﺣ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻪـﻘﺒﻃ ﻱﺍ
ﺪﺷ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ ﻩ
ﺪﻧﺍ ﺍﺬﻟ ، H ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ 10 ) ﻚﻫﺩ ﻩﺩ ( ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . R0
ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻥﻭﺮـﺑ
ﺍﺯ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲـﻳ
ﻮﻣ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺩﺭ
. ﺱﺎـﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﺮﺿﺎﺣ ﻝﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﺬﺧﺍ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ،ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻥﻮﻧﺎﻗ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻣﺍ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻪﻛ ﺎﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻥﻮﻧﺎـﻗ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﻡﻭﺩ ﻪﻤﻴﻧ 1387
ﻡﺯﻻ ﻪـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺕﺎﻣﺪـﺧ ﻭ ﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺬﻟ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺍﺮﺟﻻﺍ
ﻪـﻳﺎﭘ ﺯﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻞـﻳﺎﻤﺗ ﺖـﻟﻭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﻲﺑﻮـﻠﻄﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ،ﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﺖـﺳﺩ ﻪـﺑ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ
1- Inequality Aversion.
2 - ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻩﺎﻓﺭ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﻋﺍ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻩﺎﻓﺭ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺮﻴﻏ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻝﺎـﻤ
ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺮﺑ ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻩﺎﻓﺭ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ .
ﻲﻣ ﻢﻳﺮﻴﮔ . ١
ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ،ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻪـﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﻥﺎـﻜﻣﺍ ﻪﻛ
ﻪـﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﺯﺍ ﺪـﻌﺑ ﻭ ﻞـﺒﻗ ﻱ
ﺭﺎـﻬﭼ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺩﺮﻜﻠﻤﻋ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ،ﺩﻮﺷ ﻢﻫﺍﺮﻓ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻥﺪﺷ ﻲﻳﺍﺮﺟﺍ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﺶﻴﭘ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ،ءﺍﺮﺟﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻲﻨﻴﺑ
ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ2
ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺎـﻫ ﻱ 1388 ﻭ
1389 ﻪﺑ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ 27611 ﻭ 28536 ﺭﺩ ﺖـﻟﻭﺩ ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻝﺎﻳﺭ ﺩﺭﺎﻴﻠﻴﻣ
ﻲﻣ ﺮﻈﻧ ﻢﻳﺮﻴﮔ .3
ﺥﺮﻧ ،ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
،ﻂﻳﺍﺮـﺷ ﺮﻳﺎـﺳ ﺕﺎﺒﺛ ﺎﺑ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ
ﺮـﺑ ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺪﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻪﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ 1387
ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻱ
ﻝﺎﺳ 1388 ﻝﺎـﺳ ﻭ
1389 ﺖــﺳﺍ ﻩﺪــﺷ ﻪﺒــﺳﺎﺤﻣ
Xi .
qk
¶
ﺩﺭﻮــﻣ ﻱﺎــﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺎــﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮــﺑ ﻖــﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺰــﻴﻧ ¶
ﺮﻈﻧ ) ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻝﻮﻤﺸﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍﺮﺑ
ﻩﺩﻭ ( ًﺎـﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺪـﻳﺍ
ﻝﺁ )
(AIDS ﻲﻣ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺩﺮﮔ
ﺩ . ﻲﻣ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻠﻛ ﻞﻜﺷ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
:
) 13 (
n
0 ijt
i 1
Mjt
w c c.Lnp .ln( ) u
ijt P ijt
= jt
= +
å
+ b +
ﺭﺩ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ) 13 ( c0
ﺯﺍ ﺽﺮﻋ ﺃﺪﺒﻣ
، ﻚﻫﺩj ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ
،ﻱﺍ
،ﻥﺎﻣﺯt wijt
ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻢﻬﺳ
ﺍi ﻚﻫﺩ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻡ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻡﺍj
،t pijt
ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻚﻫﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻡﺍi
ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻡﺍj
ﻥﺎﻣﺯ
،t Mjt
ﻚﻫﺩﺭﺩ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻭ ﻡﺍi
،t Pjt
ﻚﻫﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻥﻮﺘﺳﺍ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻡﺍj
ﻭ
ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻭt
ﻲﻣ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟLn ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
.
،ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻛﺫ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ Pjt
ﺯﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺮﻫ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻞﻛ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ
ﻚﻫﺩ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻚﻫﺩ ﻲﻓﺮﺼﻣ ﺪﺒﺳ ﻪﻛ ﺎﺟ
ﻥﺯﻭ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻤﻧ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻪﻤﻫ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻜﻳ ﻖﻴﻗﺩ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺑﺎﻳ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺖﻬﺟ ،ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﺭﻮﺑﺰﻣ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ،
ﻚﻫﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺮﻫ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ
. ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ ﺭﺩ َﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺎﺟ
ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻞﻛ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻥﻮﺘﺳﺍ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﺑﺰﻣ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ :
) 14 (
* n
jt ijt ijt
i
LnP w Lnp
=
=
å
1
-١ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ 1387 ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ، 21820
ﻝﺎﻳﺭ ﺩﺭﺎﻴﻠﻴﻣ )
ﻪـﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﻥﻮﻧﺎﻗ ﺭﺩ ﺏﻮﺼﻣ ﻝﺎـﺳ ﻱ
1386 ( ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ .
2 - ﻉﻼﻃﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﻨﻴﺑ ﺶﻴﭘ ﻲﮕﻧﻮﮕﭼ ﺯﺍ ﺵﺭﺍﺰـﮔ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻲ
» ﻪـﺑ ﻩﺩﻭﺰـﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻲـﻨﻴﺑ ﺶﻴـﭘ
ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻚﻴﻜﻔﺗ ﺎﻫ
« ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻭ ﺵﺯﻮﻣﺁ ﺮﺘﻓﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﻴﻬﺗ ، -
ﺩﻮﺷ ﻉﻮﺟﺭ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﻧﻭﺎﻌﻣ .
3 - ﻝﺎﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺏﻮﺼﻣ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻥﺪﺷ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺒﻗ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺵﺭﺎﮕﻧ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ 1388
ﻭ 1389 ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﻨﻴﺑ ﺶﻴﭘ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﻥﻮﻧﺎﻗ ﺎﺑ ﻲﺿﺎﻤﻏﺍ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ ﻲﻠﻌﻓ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱﺎﻫ
) 89 - 88 ( ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ .
ﻚﻫﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻥﻮﺘﺳﺍ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺑﺎﻴﺘﺳﺩ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺍﺪـﺘﺑﺍ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻡﺯﻻ ،ﻱﺍ
ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺯﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺮﻫ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻚـﻫﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻞـﻛ ﺝﺭﺎـﺨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ .
ﻚﻫﺩ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ 10
ـﻫﺩ ﻂـﺳﻮﺗ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺵﺭﺍﺰـﮔ ﻚ
ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻩﺪﻤﻋ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪـﻛ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ
ﻪـﺑ
ﺭﻮــﻈﻨﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺪــﻨﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ :
1 - ﻲﻛﺍﺭﻮــﺧ ﻲﻧﺪﻴﻣﺎــﺷﺁ ،ﺎــﻫ
؛ﺕﺎــﻴﻧﺎﺧﺩ ﻭ ﺎــﻫ 2
-
؛ﺶــﻔﻛ ﻭ ﻙﺎــﺷﻮﭘ
3 - ؛ﻲﻳﺎﻨﺷﻭﺭ ﻭ ﺖﺧﻮﺳ ،ﻦﻜﺴﻣ 4
- ؛ﻝﺰـﻨﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺕﺎﻣﺪـﺧ ﻭ ﻥﺎـﻤﻠﺒﻣ ،ﻪـﺛﺎﺛﺍ
5 - ﺩ ﻭ ﺖــﺷﺍﺪﻬﺑ
؛ﻥﺎــﻣﺭ 6 - ؛ﺕﺎــﻃﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻭ ﻞــﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞــﻤﺣ 7
-
؛ﻪــﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻭ ﻞﻴــﺼﺤﺗ ،ﺢﻳﺮــﻔﺗ
8 - ؛ﻪﻗﺮﻔﺘﻣ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻭ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ 9
- ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻭ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ
١.
ﻪﺘﻜﻧ ﻱ ﺕﻻﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪـﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮـﺟﻮﻣ ﺕﺎـﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻞﻣﺎﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺐﻟﺎﻗ ﺭﺩ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ،ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱﺮﺳ ﻭ ﻲﻌﻄﻘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
) 13 ( ﮔﺭ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﺮﻫﺎﻇ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ﺮـﮔﺍ ﺎﻣﺍ
ﻪﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺍ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺎﺑSUR ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲـﻣ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺮﻈﻧﺪﻣ2
ﺖـﺴﻳﺎﺑ
ﻝﺪﻣ ﻲـﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﻱﺎـﻄﺧ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑ ﻭ ﺎـﻄﺧ ﺕﻼـﻤﺟ ﻱﺍﺰـﺟﺍ ﻦﺘﻓﺮـﮔ ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎـﺑ ﺍﺭSUR
ﻚﻳ
3ﻪﻓﺮﻃ ﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺮﻈ
ﻱﺭﻭﺁ ،ﺪﺳﺭ )
1977 ( ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺴﻛ ﻦﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺭﺎـﻛ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺍﺭ .
ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺕﻻﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻪـﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ
ﻚﻫﺩ
،ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻈﻧﺪﻣ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﻮـﻃ ﻪـﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺽﺮـﻋ ﺃﺪـﺒﻣ
ﻚـﻫﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻲﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﻱﺎﻄﺧ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻚﻳ
ﻪﻓﺮﻃ ﻲﻌﻄﻘﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻭ ﻭ ﻪﺑ4
ﺭﺎﻛ ﺪـﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ .
ﻪـﺑ
ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﺮﻫﺎﻇ ﻪﺑ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻨﻴﻜﺗ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﻮﻠﺟ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ،ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ﻩﻭﺮـﮔ
ﻱ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻑﺬﺣ ﻢﻬﻧ .
ﻱﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻨﺑ )
13 ( ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﺝﺭﺎـﺨﻣ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ ﻱﺮـﺳ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻲﻧﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ )
ﻲﻳﺎﺘـﺳﻭﺭ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻬـﺷ ﻱﺎـﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ (
ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻭ
ﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻓﺮﺼﻣ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻭ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻚﻫ
ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ 9
ﻝﺎـﺳ ﻲـﻃ ﻭ ﻩﻭﺮـﮔ ﻱﺎـﻫ
1 - ﻩﺩﺎﻣ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺗﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻭ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ ﻩﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻭ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻱ
12 ﺖـﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺯﺍ ﻑﺎـﻌﻣ ﺭﻮﺑﺰﻣ ﻥﻮﻧﺎﻗ
ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺮﻬﺷ ﺽﺭﺍﻮﻋ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺎﻫ
ﻱﺭﺎﻴﻫﺩ ﻭ ﺺﻴﺨـﺸﺗ ﺹﺎـﺧ ﻱﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ءﺰﺟ ﻥﻮﻧﺎﻗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻜﻨﻳﺍ ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﻡﻼﻋﺍ ﺎﻫ
ﺪﻧﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ . ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻞﻛ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ،ﻩﺪﺷ ﻑﺬﺣ ﻭ ﻑﺎﻌﻣ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ،ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ
) 9 ( ﻥﺁ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻲﻧﺯﻭ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ ﻭ ﺎﻫ
ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻞﻛ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺰﻴﻧ
ﺩﺍﺩ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻞﻴﻜﺸﺗ ﺍﺭ .
2 - ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﻪ ﻱ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻳﺎﻨﺷﺁ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺎﻫ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻲﮕﻧﻮﮕﭼ ﻭ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱ ﺵﻭﺭ
ﺎﻫ ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻱ
ﻦﻤـﺳﺎﻫ
ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺮﻤﻴﻟ ﺎﻳ ﺏﺎﺘﻛ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻪﻌﺟﺍﺮﻣ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺡﺮﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺠﻨﺳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ :
-Baltagi, B., 1980.
-Wooldrige, M. j, (2002).
-Green, William H.(2003).
3- One- Way Error Components 4- Cross Effect.
) 86 - 1378
1( ﻲﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﻱﺎﻄﺧ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺎﺑ ﻚﻳ
ﻪﻓﺮﻃ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ .
ﻝﻭﺪـﺟ ﺭﺩ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ )
1 (
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ .
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 1 - ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻢﻬﺳ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻢﻬﻧ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻢﺘﺸﻫ ﻢﻬﺳ
ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻢﺘﻔﻫ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻢﺸﺷ ﻬﺳ ﻢ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻢﺠﻨﭘ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻡﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻡﻮﺳ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻝﻭﺍ
08 / 0 06 / 0 27 / 0 06 / 0 06 / 0 11 / 0 03 / 0 07 / 0 32 / 0 ﺃﺪﺒﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺽﺮﻋ
0075 / 0 - 01 / 0 0005 / 0 - 004 / 0 006 / 0 - 03 / 0 - 001 / 0 004 / 0 01 / ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ 0
ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻱ
99 / 0 - 6 / 0 - 49 / 0 43 / 0 - 57 / 0 - 31 / 0 - 27 / 0 - 01 / 0 - 69 / ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ 2
ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻱ
84 / 0 08 / 0 - 7 / 0 - 09 / 0 16 / 0 22 / 0 09 / 0 41 / 0 03 / 1 ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ -
ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻡﻮﺳ ﻱ
01 / 0 - 05 / 0 35 / 0 02 / 0 2 / 0 - 61 / 0 - 01 / 0 08 / 0 - 47 / ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ 0
ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻡﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﻱ
24 / 0 22 / 0 - 52 / 0 07 / 0 - 12 / 0 - 46 / 0 - 07 / 0 - 16 / 0 - 34 / ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ 0
ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻢﺠﻨﭘ ﻱ
06 / 0 - 17 / 0 - 83 / 0 - 14 / 0 12 / 0 97 / 0 04 / 0 11 / 0 32 / 0 ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ -
ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻢﺸﺷ ﻱ
09 / 0 - 11 / 0 - 4 / 0 1 / 0 - 04 / 0 27 / 0 - 01 / 0 09 / 0 - 21 / ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ 0
ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻢﺘﻔﻫ ﻱ
038 / 0 16 / 0 21 / 0 04 / 0 - 022 / 0 - 29 / 0 - 03 / 0 - 02 / 0 - 07 / ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ 0
ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻢﺘﺸﻫ ﻱ
1 / 1 - 95 / 0 45 / 0 - 38 / 0 05 / 0 - 75 / 0 - 21 / 0 81 / 0 2 / 2 ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ -
ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻢﻬﻧ ﻱ
51 / 1 - 94 / 0 81 / 0 - 83 / 0 95 / 0 69 / 0 78 / 0 95 / 0 - 92 / 0 ﻞﻛ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ -
ﻥﻮﺘﺳﺍ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻪﺑ
- 95 / 0 87 / 0 86 / 0 86 / 0 91 / 0 83 / 0 97 / 0 92 / R2 0
- 7 / 853 5 / 435 5 / 444 1661 7 / 1505 5 / 591 1 / 1127 1285 F ﻱﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ
- 7 / 1 9 / 1 88 / 1 68 / 1 98 / 1 93 / 1 83 / 1 82 / ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ 1 ﻦﻴﺑﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ
ﻦﺴﺗﺍﻭ
ﺬﺧﺎﻣ : ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
1 - ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻛﺫ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﻪﻛ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺸﻧ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
) ﺎﻬﻨﺗ 10 ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺮﻈﻧﺪﻣ ﻝﺎﺳ
ﺖﺳﺍ ( ﻢﻫ ﻭ ﺎﻫﺮﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﻳﺎﭘ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺍﺬﻟ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﻧﻭﺭﺪﭘ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ
. ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻊﺒﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ
ﺩﺩﺮﮔ ﻉﻮﺟﺭ : -Pedroni, P.(1995).
