ﺶﺸﻛ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ
ﻲﻫﺎﻨﭘ ﻦﻴﺴﺣ ،1
ﻱﺩﻮﺠﺳ ﻪﻨﻴﻜﺳ
* 2
1 ،
ﻖﺣ ﻥﺎﻳﺪﻧﺮﻣ ءﺎﺴﻧ ﻪﻣ
3
1 . ﺰﻳﺮﺒﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺭﺎﻴﺸﻧﺍﺩ ،
panahi@tabrizu.ac.ir
2 . ﺰﻳﺮﺒﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻡﻮﻠﻋ ﻱﺍﺮﺘﻛﺩ ،
sakinehsojoodi@gmail.com
3 . ﺯﺎﺑ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ ﺪﺷﺭﺍ ﺱﺎﻨﺷﺭﺎﻛ ﺰﻳﺮﺒﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻲﻧﺎﮔﺭ
،
marandian_m@hotmail.com
:ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ 18
/ 01 / 1395 :ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ 04
/ 08 / 1395
ﻩﺪﻴﻜﭼ ﻲﺘﻣﻭﺎﻘﻣ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻨﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ،
ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻭ ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺖـﻳﺎﻤﺣ
، ـﻳﺍ . ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻦﻳﺰﮕﻳﺎـﺟ ﺕﻻﻮـﺼﺤﻣ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻥﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩﻩﮋﻳﻭﻪﺑ ﺮـﻣﺍ ﻦ
ﻢﻴﻈﻨﺗ ﺪﻨﻣﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ
ﺎﻫ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻝﻮﺼﺣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻖﻴﻗﺩ ﻱ ،
ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎـﺳ ﺖﺧﺎﻨﺷ
ﺶﺸﻛ ﻭ ﻱﺭﻭﺮـﺿ ﻱﺮﻣﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲـﻣ
ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ . ﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﻭﺮـﺿ ﻦـﻳﺍ
ﻪﺑ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﺣ ﻭ ﺱﺎﺴﺣ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺐﺗﺍﺮﻣ
ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺖـﺳﺍ
، ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻨﺑ ، ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺍﺬـﮔ ﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻱ
ﺯﻮﺣ ﻩ ﻱ ﺭﺍﻭ ﺯﺍ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩ ـﻓﺮﻌﺗ ﻊـﺿﻭ ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻒﻘﺳ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ
ﻪ ﻱ ﻉﻼـﻃﺍ ﺪـﻨﻣﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﻲـﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ
ﺟﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻖﻴﻗﺩ ﻪ
ﻱ ﻪﺑ ﻻﺎﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺖﻴﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ
ﺎﻫ ﺎـﻳ ﻱﺭﻭﺮـﺿ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻭ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ
ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺲﻛﻮﻟ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﻩ ﻱ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ .
ﻉﻮـﺿﻮﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺖـﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺩﻮﺟﻭﺎـﺑ
، . ﺪـﻧﺍﻩﺩ ﺮـﻜﻧ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﺎﻫﺶﺸﻛ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻧﺍﺪﻨﭼ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻑﺪـﻫ
ﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪ
ﻱ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻪـﺑ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻚـﻴﻜﻔﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﻭ ﻲـﻠﻛ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ
ﺲﻴﺋﻮﺳ) ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺃﺪﺒﻣ ﻩﺪﻤﻋ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ،
ﻥﺎﻤﻟﺁ ، ﻠـﺻﺎﻓ ﺭﺩ ﻭ (ﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻭ ﻪﺴﻧﺍﺮﻓ ﻪ
ﻱARDL ) ﻩﺩﺮﺘـﺴﮔ ﻱﺎﻫﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﺎﺑ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﺭﺎﻛﻪﺑ ﺎﺑ، 1393 ﺎﺗ1371 ﻱﺎﻫﻝﺎﺳ ﻭ ( . ﺖـﺳﺍ (SDQUAIDS) ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﺃﺪﺒﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻱﻪ ﺟﺭﺩ ﻝﻩﺁﺪﻳﺍ ًﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻭ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ ،
ﻭﺩ ﺮﻫ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﺮـﺗ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮـﺑ ﻚـﻳ ﺯﺍ
ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﺸﻛ گﺭﺰﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ .
ﻛ ﻭﺩ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﺎـﺑ ﻱﺩﺎـﺒﻣ ﻚـﻴﻜﻔﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﺶـﺸ
ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻩﺪـﺷ
ﻥﺎـﻤﻟﺁ ﻭ ﻪـﺴﻧﺍﺮﻓ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶـﺸﻛ ﻪـﻛ
گﺭﺰﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ .
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺒﻣ ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ
ﺮـﺗ
ﺯﺍ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻚﻳ
ﺒﻃ ﻪﻘ ﺪﻨﺑ ﻱ :JEL Q21, D31, F17
ﻩژﺍﻭ :ﻱﺪﻴﻠﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ
، ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﺸﻛ ،
ﺶﺸﻛ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ، ًﺎـﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ
ﺪﻳﺍ ﻩ ﺁ ﺟﺭﺩ ﻝ ﻪ ﻱ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺒﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻡﻭﺩ .
.*
،ﻝﻮﺌﺴﻣ ﻩﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ 04133392360
1 - ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ
ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱ 1380
ﻪﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺮﻴﮕﻤﺸﭼ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﻛ
ﻂـﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺭﻮـﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﻩﺩ
ﺯﺍ ﻪﻧﻻﺎﺳ ﺮﻈﻧ
ﻢﺠﺣ 8 /6 ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﺮﻈﻧ
ﺵﺯﺭﺍ 5 / 18 ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ .
ﻁﺎـﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺪﻨﻣﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﻪﭽﻧﺁ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻴﺑ
ﺶ ﺮﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻢـﻫ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥ
ﻢﺠﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻫ ﻭ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ
، ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ .ﺑ
ﻝﺎﺜﻣ ﻱﺍﺮ ،
ﺯﺍ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻢﻬﺳ
ﺯﺍ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻞﻛ ﺮﻈﻧ
ﺯﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ 18
ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ 1380 ﺩﻭﺪـﺣ ﻪﺑ 40
ﺭﺩ ﺪـﺻﺭﺩ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﺎﻫ ﺪﻧﻭﺭﺎﻨﻳﺩ) ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻴﺳﺭ ﺮﻴﺧﺍ ﻱ ،1
2009 ( . ﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻲـﻧﺯﻭ ﺮﻳﺩﺎـﻘﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻭ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ 1393
ﻝﺎـﺳ ﻪـﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ 1380
ﺮـﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻪـﺳ ﻪـﺑ ﻚـﻳﺩﺰﻧ ﺪﻴـﺳﺭ
ﻩ
2ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻲﺑ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻚﺷ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﻳﻭﺭ
ﻪ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲﻌﻧﺎـﻣ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﻪ ﻱ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ
، ﻪﺑ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻲﻣ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺑﺎﺸﻣ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻭﺭﻭ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺪـﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﺍﺭ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻪﺿﺮﻋ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻣ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺖﺻﺮﻓ ﻭ ﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﺩﺮﻴﮕﺑ ﺎﻫ .
ﻲﺗﺭﻮﺻﺭﺩ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﻮﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺑ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ
ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﻪﻳﻭﺭ ،
ﻊﺑﺎـﻨﻣ ﻑﻼـﺗﺍ
ﺪﻣﺁ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺭﺎﻤﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺯﺭﺍ .
ـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺖﺧﺎﻨﺷ ﺪﻨﻣﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ ﻪ
ﻱ ﻖـﻴﻗﺩ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ . ﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﺸ ﻢﻬﻣ
ﺮﺗ ﻦﻳ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎـﻫ ﻂﺒﺗﺮـﻣ ﻱ
ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ
،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻧﺍﻭﺍﺮﻓ ﺩﺮﺑﺭﺎﻛ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ
ﺍﺬـﮔ ﺭ ﻱ ﺎـﺑ ﻂﺒﺗﺮـﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ .
ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺩﻮﺟﻭﺎﺑ ،
ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﻲﺗﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺩﺍﺪـﻌﺗ
ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺮﻛ
ﻩﺩ ﺪﻨﭼ ﺪﻧﺍ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻥﺍ ﻧ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻲـﻤ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ . ﻝﺎـﺒﻧﺩ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ
ﻲﺗﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻸﺧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺶﺷﻮﭘ ﻪﺑ
ﻩﮋﻳﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ .
ﻦﻴـﻤﺨﺗ ﺎـﺑ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ
ﺭﺩ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺭﻭﺩ
ﻩ ﻱ 1371 ﺎﺗ 1393 ﺎـﺑ ﻥﻮﻴـﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ
ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﻩﺩﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﻱﺎﻫ )3
(،ARDL
ﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﻞـﻛ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲـﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺶـﺸﻛ ﻭ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺩ
ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺃﺪﺒﻣ ﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﻚﻴﻜﻔﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺲﭙﺳ ﺪﻳﺍ ًﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻩ
ﺟﺭﺩ ﻝﺍ ﻪ ﻱ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺃﺪﺒﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻡﻭﺩ )4
SDQUAIDS
(،
ﺶﺸﻛ ﻭ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺃﺪﺒﻣ ﺮﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ .
ﺏﺎـﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻲـﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺃﺪـﺒﻣ ﺭﺎـﻬﭼ ﻩﺪـﺷ
ﺲﻴﺋﻮﺳ ﺯﺍﺪﻨﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ ،
ﻭ ﻥﺎﻤﻟﺁ ﻪﺴﻧﺍﺮﻓ
، ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ ﻪﻛ 50
ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﻱﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺪـﺻﺭﺩ ﺎـﻫ
1.Dinarvand
2 ﺖﻳﺎﺳ . ﻲﻤﺳﺭ ﻕﺎﺗﺍ
،ﻲﻧﺎﮔﺭﺯﺎﺑ
،ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻥﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻭ ﻱﺯﺭﻭﺎﺸﻛ ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ 3.Autoregressive Distributed Lag
4.Source Difference Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System
ﻦﻴﻣﺄﺗ ﻲﻣ ﻲـﻣ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺩﺮـﻴﮔ
. ﻞـﻴﻟﺩ
ﺎﻫﺍﺪﺒﻣ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ،
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ ﻱﺮـﺳ ﺕﺎـﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻲـﺳﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺎـﻫ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻪﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ، ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻉﻮـﺿﻮﻣ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺲﭙـﺳ ﻭ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ
ﻲﻣ ﻲﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻥﺎﻳﺎﭘ ﺭﺩ ﻊﻤﺟ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻭ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ
.
2 - ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻣ
ﻭ ﻦﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﮔ ﺭﺍﺬ ﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ ﻪ
ﻱ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﻦﻴـﻤﺨﺗ ،
ﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪ ﻱ ﺕﺎﻛﺭﻭﺍ )1
1950 ﺖﺳﺍ ( . ﺻ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻱﻭ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎ
ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺎـﻬﻧﺁ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺯﺍﺮﺗ ﺮﺑ .
ﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ ﻪ
ﻱ ) ﺕﺎﻛﺭﻭﺍ 1950 ( ، ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ
ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻧﻮﮔﺎﻧﻮﮔ
ـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲ ﺕﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪ
ﺎـﺳﻻﺎﺑ
2
) 1967 ( ، ﻲﮕﻣ ﻭ ﺮﻛﺎﺳﺎﻫ )3
1969 ( ، ﻥﺮﺘﺳﺍ ﻭ ﺮﻤﻴﻟ )4
1970 ( ، ﻦﻤﻨـﻴﮔ ﻭ ﻱﺭﻮـﻣ )5
1976 ( ،
ﻦﻳﺎﺘﺷﺪﻠﮔ ﻥﺎﺧ ﻭ
)6
1985 ( ، ﺲﭙﻴﻠﻴﻓ ﻭ ﻝﻮﭘﺍﻮﻠﻴﺳ )7
1985 ( ، ﻥﻮـﻨﻣ ﻭ ﻻﺍﺭﻮﻛﻮﺗﺁ )8
1995 ( ،
ﻥﻮــﺴﻨﻴﻜﻠﻳﻭ )9
1992 ( ، ﻥﺍﺭﺎــﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻙﺎــﻳﺩ )10
1993 ( ، ﻥﻭﺭﺎــﻛ )11
1996 ( ، ﺲﻴﺗﻮﻴــﺴﻠﺑ ﻭ
ﻪــﭘﺯﻮﺟ )12
1997 ( ، ﺮــﻤﻠﻴﻛ ﻭ ﺍﺮﻔﻴــﺷ )13
2007 ( ، ﺪــﻤﺤﻣ )14
2008 ( ، ﺭﺎــﻣﻮﻛ ﻭ ﻥﺎــﻳﺍﺭﺎﻧ
15
) 2010 ( ، ﺖﻴــﺳﺍﺮﭘ )16
1997 ( ، ﻼﻳﺭﻮــﻫ )17
2004 ( ، ﻲــﻟ ﻭ ﮓــﻧﻭ )18
2012 ﺎــﻜﻴﻠﺑ ﻭ (
19
) 2013 (،
ﺯﺍ ﻢﻬﻣ ﺮﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺎﻤﺷ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻦﻳ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ
.
1. Orcutt 2.Balassa
3.Houthakker & Magee 4.Leamer & Stern 5.Murray & Ginman 6.Goldstein & Khan 7.Silvapulle & Phillips 8.Athukorala & Menon 9.Wilkinson
10.Deyak et al.
11.Carone
12.Belessiotis & Giuseppe 13.Shiferaw & Kilmer 14.Muhammad 15.Narayan & Kumar 16.Prasit
17.Havrila 18.Wang & Lee 19.Belicka
) ﺎﺳﻻﺎﺑ 1967 (،
ﻥﺎﻳﺮﺟ ﻪـﺑ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺎﭘﻭﺭﺍ ﻙﺮﺘﺸﻣ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻩ
ﺩﺮـﻛ ﺵﻼـﺗ ﻭ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩ
ﻲﮕﻧﻮـﮕﭼ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ
ﺿﺮﻋ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻪ
ﻱ ﻘﺗ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﻭ ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﺩﺎـﺠﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎ
ﺪﻫﺩ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ .
ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﻫﺩ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ،
ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ
ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ .
) ﻲـﮕﻣ ﻭ ﺮﻛﺎﺳﺎﻫ 1969
ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻝﺪـﻣ (
) ﺎﺳﻻﺎﺑ 1967 (،
ﺷ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ) ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻲﻓﺎﺿﺍ ﻲﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺪﻧﺎﺠﻨﮔ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎ
ﺩﺍﺩ ﺵﺮﺘـﺴﮔ (ﻩﺪـﻨﻨﻛﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻲﺷﻭﺮﻓ ﻩﺪﻤﻋ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻩ ﺍ
ﺪـﻧ . ﻥﺁ ﺎـﺑ ﺎـﻫ
ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻂﺴﺑ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ،
ﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱ
15 ﺍﺭ ﻲﺘﻌﻨـﺻ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ
ﺮﻛ ﺩ ﻩ ﺍ ﺪﻧ . ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ) ﻲﮕﻣ ﻭ ﺮﻛﺎﺳﺎﻫ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻩﺪﻤﻋ ﻱﺎﻫ 1969
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ( ﻡﺎﻤﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻫ ﻱ
ﻪﺑ ًﺎﺘﺒﺴﻧ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺵﺯﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﺑﻮﺧ
ﺪـﻧﺍ
، ﻦﻴـﻴﻌﺗ ﺐﻳﺮـﺿ ﺭﺍﺪـﻘﻣ ﻪـﻛ ﻱﺭﻮـﻃ ﻪـﺑ
ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺑﻮﻨﺟ ﻱﺎﻘﻳﺮﻓﺁ ﻭ ﺎﻴﻟﺍﺮﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ
62 ﻭ 6/
79 ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻭ ﺪـﺻﺭﺩ
13 ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ 6/
95 ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩ
. ﻝﺎـﺣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺎﺑ ،
ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﻪـﻧﻮﮕﻧﺎﻤﻫ
ﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪ ﻱ ) ﻲﮕﻣ ﻭ ﺮﻛﺎﺳﺎﻫ 1969
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺭﺎﺷﺍ ( ﺩﻮﺷ
، ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﻪـﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻚـﭼﻮﻛ ًﺎﺘﺒـﺴﻧ ﻢﺠﺣ
ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺪﻫﺍﻮﺷ ،
ﺪﻧﻮﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻁﺎﻴﺘﺣﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ .
) ﻥﺮﺘﺳﺍ ﻭ ﺮﻤﻴﻟ 1970
( ، ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻩ ﺍ
ﻥﺪـﻧﺎﺠﻨﮔ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻱﻮـﻗ ﻱﺮـﻈﻧ ﻱﺎﻨﺒﻣ ﻚﻳ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧ
ﻪﺑ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ
ﺎﻫ ) ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻱ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ (RP
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ .
ﺎﻄﻣ ﻌﻟ ﻪ ﻱ ) ﻦﻤﻨﻴﮔ ﻭ ﻱﺭﻮﻣ 1976
(،
ﻲﻧﺎﻳﺎـﺷ ﻚـﻤﻛ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺗﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ
ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺕﺎﻴﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﺖﺧﺎﻨﺷ ﻪﺑ ﺮﻛ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩ . ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻫﺩ
ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ
، ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ،
ﺕﻻﻮـﺼﺤﻣ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ
ﻨﻳﺰﮕﻳﺎﺟ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻲ
ﻲﻣ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
. ﻴﭘ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺭﻮﻣ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﺎﻬﻨﺸ
ﻦﻤﻨﻴﮔ ﻭ )
1976 ( ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ،
ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ،
ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ
ﻞـﺑﺎﻗ ﺮـﻴﻏ ﺕﻻﻮـﺼﺤﻣ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻭ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﺒﻣ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺕﻻﻮﺼﺤﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻪﻧﺎﮔﺍﺪﺟ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﺒﻣ ﻲﻣ
ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ،
ﻪﻜﻨﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺒﻣ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﻟﻻﺪﺘﺳﺍ
ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻲﺘﻨﺳ ﺕﺍ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺎﻫ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﺎﻳ ﻲـﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ RP
ﺪـﻨﻛ
، ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ
ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻲﺻﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﺗ
. ﻝﺎﺣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﺑ ،
ﺮﺑ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ
ﻲﻣ ﻞﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱﺎﻨﺒﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
، ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻲﺒﺳﺎﻨﻣﺎﻧ ﻲﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣRP
.
ﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪ
ﻱ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺯﺎﺳ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﻚـﻳ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺮﺑ
ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻦﻴﻌﻣ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺪﻧﺍ
. ﻥﻮـﺘﮕﻨﻴﻣﺭﺁ ﻱﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ )1
1969 (،
ﺏﻮـﺒﺤﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﻜﻳ ﻦﻳﺮـﺗ
ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻛﺮﺤﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻪ
ﻱ ﺹﺎـﺧ ﻱﻻﺎـﻛ ﻚﻳ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺰﺠﺗ
ﻻﻮﺑﺎـﺑ) ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ،2
) 1987 ﻻﻮﺑﺎـﺑ ﻭ ﻦـﺴﻨﭘ ؛(
،3
) 1988 ﻭ ﻲـﻓﺍﺩ ؛(
ﺎﻜﻤﻫ
4ﻥﺍﺭ ، ) 1990 ((
. ﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻥﻮﺘﮕﻨﻴﻣﺭﺁ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻪ
ﻱ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻲﺸﻨﻴﺑ ﻲﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ
ﺪﻨﻛ
ﺩﻮﺧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞﺤﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻥﺁ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ،
؛ﺪﻨﺘـﺴﻫ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﺮﮕﻳﺪﻜﻳﺎﺑ
ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺽﻭﺮﻓ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ،
ﻪـﺸﻳﺭ ﺎـﺑ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺺﻗﺎﻧ ﻲﻨﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻲﻧﺎـﻜﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﻥﻮﺘﮕﻨﻴﻣﺭﺁ ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ
ﻪـﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻱﺪـﻨﺑ ﻲـﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﻱﺍ
ﻛ ـﻨ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺪ
ﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻪ ﻱ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻦﻴـﻴﻌﺗ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻚﻳ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻥﺁ ﻝﻭﺍ
ﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻪ ﻱ ﻪﻧﻮﮔ ﻪﺑ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻪﺑ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﻱﺍ
ﻪـﻛ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ
ﺩﻮﺷ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ .
ﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻥﻮﺘﮕﻨﻴﻣﺭﺁ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺶﻘﻧ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺎﺑ ﻞ
ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ،
ﺕﺎﻴـﺿﺮﻓ ﺯﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ) ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﻲﻨﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﺶﺸﻛ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻱﺍ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻦـﻜﻤﻣ ﻪـﻛ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺲﻧﺎﺠﺘﻣ ﻭ (CES
ﺒﻧﺎﺟ ﻚﻳ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻪ
ﻱ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ،
ﻲﻣ ﺞﻧﺭ ﻥﺍﺭﺎـﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻥﻮﺘـﺴﻟﺁ) ﺩﺮﺑ ،5
) 1990 ؛(
ﺯﺮﺘﻨﻳﻭ ،6
) 1984 ((
. ﻪﺘﺷﺬﮔ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺖﺴﻴﺑ ﻝﻮﻃ ﺭﺩ ،
ﻩﺩﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﻒﻴﻃ ﻞﺣ ﻩﺍﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺍ
ﺮﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻪﺒﻠﻏ ﻱﺍ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻪـﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻥﻮﺘﮕﻨﻴﻣﺭﺁ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻒﻌﺿ ﻁﺎﻘﻧ ﺮﺑ .
ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﻮـﺳ ﺯﺍ ،
ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺕﺎـﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻡﺮﻓ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺮﺗﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻑﺎﻄﻌﻧﺍ ﻲﻌﺒﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺭﻮـﻃ ﻪـﺑ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮـﺑ ﺩﻮـﺟﻮﻣ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺰﺠﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺩﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪ
. ﻝﺪـﻣ
AIDS7
ﺭﻮﺒﻟﻮﻣ ﻭ ﻥﻮﺘﻳﺩ )8
1980 ( ، ﻦﻳﺮﺗﺩﺮﺑﺭﺎﻛﺮﭘ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻝﺪـﻣ
ﺎـﻫ ﻑﺎـﻄﻌﻧﺍ ﻱ ﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﺮﻳﺬـﭘ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻱﺩﺎﻴﻨﺑ ﻝﻮﺻﺍ
ﻪ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻨﻛ
ﻪـﺑ ﻲـﺻﺎﺧ ﻂﻳﺍﺮـﺷ ﺖﺤﺗ ﻭ ﺪ
ﻊﻤﺟ ﻞﻣﺎﻛ ﺭﻮﻃ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺬﭘ
. ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﺮﻳﺬـﭘ ﻑﺎـﻄﻌﻧﺍ ًﻼﻣﺎـﻛ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻚﻳ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻑﻼﺧﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ
ﺎﻫ ) ﻲﻄﺧ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻱ (LES
، 9
ﻓ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﺒﺗ ﻡﺮ ﮋﻳﻭ
ﻩ ﻱﺍ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﭘ
ﻲﻤﻧ ﺪﻨﻛ . ﺯﺮﺘﻨﻳﻭ ) 1984 ،(
ﻪﺑ ﻖﻴﻔﻠﺗ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﺘﮕﻨﻴﻣﺭﺁ ﺎﺑ
ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ
ًﺎـﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ
1.Armington 2. Babula
3.Penson & Babula 4.Duffy et al.
5.Alston et al.
6. Winters
7.Almost Ideal Demand System 8.Deaton & Muellbauer 9.Linear Estimation System
ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ﻝﺁ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﺑﺎﻴﺘﺳﺩ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻪﺑ
ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺯﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻪﺿﺮﻋ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺪـﻨﻨﻛ
ﻩ ﻱ ﻲﺟﺭﺎـﺧ
)
SDAIDS
1( ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ ﺎﺑ ﺵﻭﺮﻓ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪ
. ﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ ﻪ
ﻱ ) ﺯﺮـﺘﻨﻳﻭ 1984
( ،
ﺗ ﺪﺷ ﺮﺸﺘﻨﻣ ﻲﺠﻨﺳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﺩﺍﺪﻌ ﻩ
ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ
ﺎﻫ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱ
ﻡﺮـﻓ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻳﺎﻴﻓﺍﺮﻐﺟ ﻱﺩﺎﺒﻣ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻑﺎـﻄﻌﻧﺍ ﻲـﻌﺒﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺪـﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻱﺮﻳﺬـﭘ
،AIDS
ﻡﺍﺩﺮﺗﻭﺭ ، گﻮﻠﺴﻧﺍﺮﺗ ،
ﻥﺭﺎـﻘﺘﻣ ﻝﺎـﻣﺮﻧ ﻡﺮـﻓ ﻭ ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻢﻴـﻤﻌﺗ ﻒﻴﺘﻧﻮﺌﻟ ـﺟﺭﺩ
ﻪ ﻱ ﻡﻭﺩ
ـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ ﻩﺮـﻴﻏ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺮﺑﺭﺎﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪ
. ﻚـﻳﺎﻣ ﻭ ﺮﺗﺭﻮـﮔ )2
1987 ﻥﺍﺭﺎـﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻥﻮﺘـﺴﻟﺁ ﻭ (
) 1990 (،
ﻲـﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻲﻧﺎﻘﻘﺤﻣ ﻦﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ـﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ AIDS
ﻪ ﻱ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ
ﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺒﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻩ ﺍ
ﺪﻧ . ﻮﻛ ﻭ ﮓﻧﺎﻳ )3
1994 (،
ﻝﺪـﻣ
SDAIDS
ﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻦﭘﺍژ ﺖﺷﻮﮔ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺩﺮـﺑ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻒﻠ
ﻩ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻱﺮﺒﻨﻫ ﻭ ﻭﺪﻧﻮﺗﻮﻣ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ )4
2007 ﺎﻜﻳﺮﻣﺁ ﺭﺩ ( ،
ﮓﻧﺍﻮﻫ ﻭ ﻱﺮﺒﻨﻫ )5
2007 ﻩﺮﻛ ﺭﺩ (
ﻲﺑﻮﻨﺟ ، ﺲﻳﺭﺎﻧﻮﻠﻛ )6
2014 ﺖـﺷﻮﮔ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻥﺎـﻧﻮﻳ ﺭﺩ (
ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺮﻛ ﻩﺩ ﺪﻧﺍ . ﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻪ
ﻱ ) ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻱﺯﺭﺩﻮﮔ 2007
ﺎـﺑ (
ﻪﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻝﺪﻣ
SDAIDS
ﺶﺸﻛ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻳﻮـﺳ ﻦـﻏﻭﺭ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ .
ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺎﺑ ﻥﻮﮔﺎﻧﻮﮔ
ﺭﺩ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ،
ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ
ﻪــﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻪــﺑ ﺕﺎــﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺪــﻧﺍ
. ﺭﺪﻧﺎــﺴﻜﻟﺁ ) ﻥﺍﺭﺎــﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ7
1994 (،
ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘــﺳﺍ ﺎــﺑ
ﺭﺩ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺖﻔﻫ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ 8
ﻝﺎﺳ ﺪﻨﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ .
ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎﺗ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ،
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﻜﺷﺰﭘ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻭ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ .
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻭﺩ ﺮﻫ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
گﺭﺰﺑ ﺮـﺗ ﺶـﺸﻛ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮـﺑ ﻚـﻳ ﺯﺍ
ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ گﺭﺰﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﺖـﺳﺍ . ) ﺖﻴـﺳﺍﺮﭘ 1997
( ، ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻴﻟﺍﺮﺘـﺳﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺯ ﻦﻴـﻤﺨﺗ ﻲـﻳﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﻻﻮﺼﺤﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ .
) ﺖﻴـﺳﺍﺮﭘ 1997
(،
ﻲﺤﻴـﺿﻮﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ
ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ،
ﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻭRGDP
ﻭ ﻩ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ
ﺎﻴﻟﺍﺮﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻛﺎﺣ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ
ﺮﺗ ﻚـﻳ ﺯﺍ
ﺖﺳﺍ
، ﺸﻛ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶ
گﺭﺰﺑ ﺮﺗ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ .
1.Source Difference Almost Ideal Demand System 2.Gorter & Meilke
3. Yang & Koo
4.Mutondo & Henneberry 5.Henneberry & Hwang 6.Klonaris
7. Alexander
) ﺎﻜﻴﻠﺑ 2013 (،
ﻩﺩﺮـﻛ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲـﻳﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﻻﻮـﺼﺤﻣ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺎﻴﻟﺍﺮﺘـﺳﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ،
) ﻲـﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ (RP
، ) ﻲـﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎـﺧﺎﻧ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻭ (RGDP
ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻠﺼﻓ ﻱﺯﺎﺠﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺪـﻧﺍ
. ﺭﺩ
ﻦﻳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﻪﻧﺎﮔﺍﺪﺟ ﻱﺎﻫﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺃﺪﺒﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻚﻴﻜﻔﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺎﻫ ﻲـﻳﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﻻﻮـﺼﺤﻣ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﻱ
ﺐﺒﺳ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻳﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﻻﻮﺼﺤﻣ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻜﭼﻮﻛ ًﺎﺘﺒﺴﻧ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﺩﻮﺷ
، ﻪـﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ
ﺖﺤﺗ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺎﻴﻟﺍﺮﺘﺳﺍ
، ﻲـﻳﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﻻﻮـﺼﺤﻣ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ
گﺭﺰﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ .
ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ،
ﺎﻜﻳﺮﻣﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻢـﻛ
ﺮـﺗ ﻭ ﻦﻳ
ﻥﺎﺘﺴﻠﮕﻧﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﺸﻛ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻦﻳ .
ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﺸﻛ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ،
ﺎﻜﻳﺮﻣﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻢﻛ
ﺮﺗ ﻥﺎﻤﻟﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﻦﻳ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻦﻳ .
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﻲﻤﻛ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ .
) ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﺭﺫﺁ ﺩﺮﻓ ﻱﺩﺎﺒﻋ 2013
(،
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻑﺪﻫ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ
ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ
ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻱﺮﻬﺷ
ﻭ ﻲﺋﺎﺘﺳﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ
ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻭ ﻲﻳﺎﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ
ﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﺛﺍ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺪﻧﺍ
. ﻖـﺒﻃ
ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺭ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻄﺑﺍ
ﻪ ﻱ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺩ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲـﻳﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺎـﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻭ
ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ
ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻞﻤﺘﺸﻣ ﺮﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ، ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻭ
ـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪ ﻱ ﺖـﻳﺰﻳﻭ ﻲﻜـﺷﺰﭘ
ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺶﺸﻛ
ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺭﺩ
ﺕﺎﻣﺪـﺧ ﻲـﻳﻭﺭﺍﺩ
ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﺮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻚﻳ ﻭ گﺭﺰﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ) ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺮﻔﺻ ﻱﺮﻬـﺷ ﻱﺎـﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ
56 / 0 ﻭ
ﻲﻳﺎﺘﺳﻭﺭ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ 38
/ 0 ( . ) ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﺮﺒﺠﻧﺭ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ 1394
ﺶـﺸﻛ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﻪﺑ ( ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻚﻴﺗﻮﻴﺑ ﻲﺘﻧﺁ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻥﺎﻤﻟﺁ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫ
، ﺲﻴﺋﻮﺳ ، ﻪـﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻴﻟﺎﺘﻳﺍ ﻭ ﻥﺎﺘﺴﻠﮕﻧﺍ
ﻩﺪﻴﺳﺭ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻲـﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺶـﺸﻛ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧﺍ
ﻢـﻛ ﺮـﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺎـﺴﻜﻳ
ﻲﻣ ﺑ ﺪﺷﺎ . ﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪ ﻱ ﺩﺮﺑﺭﺎﻛ ﻅﺎﺤﻟ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺿﺎﺣ ﺪﻳﺍ ًﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺵﻭﺭ
ﻩﺁ ﺟﺭﺩ ﻝ ﻪ ﻱ ﺎﺑ ﻡﻭﺩ
) ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﺃﺪﺒﻣ
SDQUAIDS
( ﻲﻣ ﺏﻮﺴﺤﻣ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻩﺯﻮﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺩﻮﺷ
.
3 - ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻖﺑﺎﻄﻣ ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ
ﻥﻮﺘﮕﻨﻴﻣﺭﺁ ﻱﺍ ،
ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﺝﺭﺎﺨ
ﺪﻨﻫﺩ ، ﺭﺩ ﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻪ ﻱ ﻩﻭﺮـﮔ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻞﻛ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻲﻠﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻪ ﻱ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻲﻠﻛ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻡﻭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻻﺎـﻛ ﺮـﻫ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫ
ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﺎﻫ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ) ﻥﺍﺭﺎـﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻥﻮﺘـﺴﻟﺍ ﻱﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ 1990
( ،
ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ
ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ ـﻠﺣﺮﻣ
ﻪ ﻱ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ﻝﻭﺍ ـﻨﻳﺰﻫ
ﻪ ﻱ ﻞـﻛ
ﻲﻣ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻻﺎﻛ ﻚﻳ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻮﺷ
:ﺩ
) 1 (
୲ൌ Ƚ Ⱦଵ୲ Ⱦଶ୲ ୲
:ﻪﻛ ﻱﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ :LnDD
) ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻲﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻝﺎـﻳﺭ ﺐـﺴﺣ ﺮـﺑ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺝﺭﺎـﺨﻣ
ﻝﺎـﺳ ﻪـﻳﺎﭘ ﻪﺑ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺮﺑ ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ 1383
( ﻲـﻣ .ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﺍﻭ ﺯﺍ ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ ﺕﺍﺩﺭ
ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ، ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺷﻭﺮﻓ ﻩﺩﺮﺧ ﺪﺼﻗ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺎﺴﻧﺍ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﻭﺭﺍﺩ .
RP
:Ln
ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﺮـﺑ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﺮـﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ،
ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻥﻮﮔﺎﻧﻮﮔ
ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻱﺎﺟ ﻪﺑ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ .
ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ
ﻪ ﻱ ﺍﺮﺑRP
ﺎـﺑ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱ
ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ )1
ﺪـﺣﺍﻭ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ (AUV (AUV)
ﻪﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎـﺻ
ﻲﻣ ﻮﺷ ﻪﻜﻧﺎﻨﭼ ؛ﺩ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻢﻴـﺴﻘﺗ ﺎـﺑ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎـﺻ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻢﻫ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻢﻫAUV
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻪﻃﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﺮﺑ (ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ) ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ
؛ﺩﻮﺷ
:
ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎ
ﻪـﻳﺎﭘ ﻝﺎـﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻘﻴﻘﺣ 1383
ﺐـﺴﺣ ﺮـﺑ
ﻝﺎﻳﺭ ، ﺭﻭﺩt
ﻩ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻫﺩ
ﺪﻨ .
ﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪ
ﻱ 1 ، ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑRP
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻱﻭﺭ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ
، ﻲـﻣ ﺭﺎـﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﺕﺎـﺒﺛ ﺎـﺑ ﺩﻭﺭ
ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻔﻨﻣRP
، ﻳﺯ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺍﺮ ﻟﺰﻨﻣ ﻪﺑRP
ﻪ ﻱ ﻥﺍﺮﮔ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻥﺪﺷ ﺮﺗ
ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ،
ﺖﻓﺎﻳ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ .
ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﻮﺳ ﺯﺍ ،
ﺮﻳﺎـﺳ ﺕﺎـﺒﺛ ﺎـﺑ
ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻪﻜﻨﻳﺍ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻭ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ،
ﻲﻣ ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
، ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻪﭽﻧﺎﻨﭼ
ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ،
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺩﻭﺭ
ﺑ ﻭﺭ ﻻﺎ ﺩ ، ﻲـﻨﻌﻳ ـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻪ ﻱ ﺖـﺒﺜﻣ
ﺖـﺷﺍﺩ ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻭ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻦﻴﺑ .
ﺢﻄـﺳ
ﻲﻣ ﻞﻴﻜﺸﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺎﻬﺟ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻞﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﭼﻮﻛ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ؛ﺪﻫﺩ
، ﻦـﻳﺍ
ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑ ﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻪﺘـﺳﺩ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﻛ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻥﻭﺮـﺑ
ﺍﺯ ﺩﻮـﺷ ﻦﻴـﻴﻌﺗ ،
ﻝﻮـﻘﻌﻣ
ﻲﻣ ﻭ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ،
ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻚﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻚﻳ ﺐﻟﺎﻗ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻱﺍ
.
ﻞﻜﻨﻳﺮﭙﺳﺍ ﻭ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ )2
1999 (،
ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﺮﻛ ﻩﺩ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺮـﺑ ﻩﻭﻼـﻋ ﻪـﻛ ﺪﻧﺍ
، ﺭﺩ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺪـﻳﺎﺑ
ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻫ ) ﺩﺎـﻤﻧ ﺎـﺑ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ؛ﺪﻧﻮﺷ ﻩﺪﻧﺎﺠﻨﮔ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱ ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﺭﺩ (
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ
ﻩ ﻱ ﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻢﺘﻳ .
1.Average Unit of Value 2.Sawyer & Sprinkle
ﻲﻧﺎﮔﺭﺯﺎﺑ ﻕﺎﺗﺍ ﺖﻳﺎﺴﺑﻭ ﺯﺍ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ،
ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ، ﻱﺯﺭﻭﺎﺸﻛ ﻭ ﻥﺩﺎﻌﻣ
ﺏﺎـﺴﺣ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺎـﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﺮﻳﺎـﺳ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﺵﺭﺍﺰـﮔ ﻭ ﻲـﻠﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻱﺰـﻛﺮﻣ ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻊﻤﺟ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱﺭﻭﺁ .
ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ 2
ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﺷ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪ .
) 2 (
୲ൌ Ƚ Ⱦଵ୲ Ⱦଶ୲ Ⱦଷ୲ ୲
ﺱﺃﺭ ﻭ ﻥﺎﺧ ﻪﺘﻔﮔ ﻪﺑ )1
1977 ؛ 1975 ﺱﻻﺎﺳ ﻭ ( )2
1982 ( ، ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ
ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻲﻣ ﺵﻼﺗ ﺕﺍ ﺎﺗ ﺪﻨﻛ
ﻫﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻲﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺪﺣ ﻪﭼ ﺪ
، ﻪﺘـﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ
ﺖﺤﺗ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻝﻮﻃ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺪﻫﺩ ، ﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻤﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﻡﺮﻓ ﺢﺟﺮﻣ ﻝﺪ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
. ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ،
ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻲﻤﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﻡﺮﻓ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ .
ﺭﺩ ﺩﺮـﻜﻳﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ
) ﻲـﮕﻣ ﻭ ﺮﻛﺎﺳﺎﻫ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ 1969
( ، ﺖﻴـﺳﺍﺮﭘ
) 1997 ( ، ) ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻙﺎﻳﺩ 1993
( ، ﺪﻤﺣﺍ ﻭ ﺎﺗﻭﺩ )3
2004 ( ، ﻛ ﻭ ﻭﺮﻔﻴـﺷ ) ﺮـﻤﻠﻴ
2007 ﻭ (
) ﺭﺎﻣﻮﻛ ﻭ ﻥﺎﻳﺍﺭﺎﻧ 2010
( ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺮﻈﻧﺪﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ
.
ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻠﺣﺮﻣ
ﻪ ﻱ ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻪـﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ
ﻱﺍ ، ﺭﺩ
ﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻪ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﻑﺮﺻ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺖﻬﺟ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻡﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﻮـﺷ
ﻝﺪﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍAIDS
ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ،
ﺝﺭﺎـﺨﻣ ، ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎـﺗ ﺖـﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ
ﻭ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻈﻧ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ﺭﻮﺒﻠﻣ )4
1975 ﻭ 1976 (،
ﻪـﺒﺗﺭ ﺕﺎﺤﻴﺟﺮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺍ
ﻪﻧﻮﮔ ﺩﺮﻛ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻱﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩ
ﻪﻛ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻭ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ
ﺖﻴﻫﺎﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻢﻫ ﺍﺪﺟ
ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ . ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ
PIGLOG5
ﺪـﻨﻫﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻖﻠﻌﺗ ﻩ
ﻱ ـﺨﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪـﺣ ﺝﺭﺎ
ﺢﻄﺳ ﺎﺑ ﻦﻴﻌﻣ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺑﺎﻴﺘﺳﺩ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻡﺯﻻ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ
ﺎﻫ ﻪـﺑ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻦﻴﻌﻣ ﻱ ﻞﻜـﺷ
ﺮﻳﺯ ﺖﺳﺍ
:
) 3 (
ሺǡ ሻ ൌ ሺͳ െ ሻ ሺሻ ሺሻ
ﺎﺠﻨﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﺢﻄﺳ u
ﻪـﻛ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻦﻴـﺑ
0 ﻭ (ﺖـﺸﻴﻌﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪـﺣ) 1
(ﺕﺩﺎﻌـﺳ)
ﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ؛ﺖﺳﺍ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻦﮕﻤﻫ ﻲﻄﺧ ﻊ
ﻭሺሻ
ﻲﻣ ﺍﺭሺሻ
ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺖﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺩﺎﻌﺳ ﻭ ﺖﺸﻴﻌﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ .
ﺢﻄﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ
ﺎﻫ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭሺሻ
.
ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺎﻫ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻦﮕﻤﻫ
1.Khan & Ross 2.Salas
3.Dutta & Ahmed 4.Muellbauer
5.Price Independent Generalized Linear
ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ ﻚﻳ .
) ﺭﻮﺒﻟﻮﻣ ﻭ ﻥﻮﺘﻳﺩ 1980
(،
ﺗ ﻲـﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻥﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻊـﺑﺍﻮ
ሺሻ
ﻭ
ሺሻ
ﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭ ﺮﻛ
ﻩﺩ ﺪﻧﺍ .
) 5 (
ሺሻ ൌ Ƚ σ୬୧ୀଵȽ୧୧ଵ
ଶσ୬୧ୀଵσ୬୨ୀଵɀ୧୨୧୨
ሺሻ ൌ ሺሻ Ⱦς ୧ஒ
୧
ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ i
ﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ n ﻩ
ﻱ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻭﺭ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻝﺎﺣ ﻂﺑﺍ
4
ﻭ 5 ﺭﺩ 3 ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮕﻳﺎﺟ ﺩﻮﺷ
:ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮﺧ
) 6 (
ሺǡ ሻ ൌ Ƚ σ Ƚ୧୧ σ σ୬ ɀ୧୨୧୨ ୬ ୨ୀଵ
୧ୀଵ Ⱦς୬୧ୀଵ୧ஒ
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻜﻨﻳﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺎﻫ ﻦﮕﻤﻫ ﻲﻄﺧ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﺩﻮـﻴﻗ ﺮـﻳﺯ ﻕﺪـﺻ
ﺪﻨﻛ
:
) 7 (
σ୩୧ୀଵȽ୧ ൌ ͳǡ σ୩୧ୀଵȾ୧ൌσ୩୨ୀଵɀ୧୨ ൌ Ͳǡσ୩୧ୀଵɉ୧ ൌ Ͳǡﻭɀ୧୨ൌ ɀ୨୧
ﺎﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻴﻀﻗ ﻢﻟ ﺩﺭﺎﻔﺷ ، ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﺎـﺑ ﻪـﻛi
୧
ﻲـﻣ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﺩﻮـﺷ
ﺯﺍ
୧ൌபୡሺ୳ǡሻ
ப
ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺪﻳﺁ
. ﺍﺭ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻑﺮﻃ ﻭﺩ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻝﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ
ﺏﺮﺿ େ
ﺮـﻛ ﻭ ﻩﺩ
୶
େ
ﺍﺭ
ﻨﻫﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻛ ﺪ
ﻩ ﻱ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻢﻬﺳ
୧
ﺎﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻞﻛ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﺯﺍ
୧
ﻢﻴﻫﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ،
:ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮﺧ
) 8 (
୧ ൌ୶
େ ൌ பେሺ୳ǡሻ
ப Ǥ
େ ൌ ப୬େ
ப୬
ﺲﭘ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻞﻛ ﺯﺍi
ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﺑ ﻖﺘﺸﻣ ﻲﺋﺰﺟ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ
ﻪﺑ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻲﻣ ﻡﺍi
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻝﺎﺣ ﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻈﻧ ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻱﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﮔﺍ
ﺯﺍ ﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻪ ﻱ ) 6 (
ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻖﺘﺸﻣ LnPi
ﻲﺋﺰﺟ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ،
ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮﺧ :ﺖﺷﺍﺩ
) 9 (
୧ൌ ப୬େ
ப୬ൌ Ƚ୧ σ୬୨ୀଵɀ୧୨୨ Ⱦ୧Ⱦς୬୧ୀଵ୧ஒ
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ،
ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻞﻛ ﺎﺑ
C(u,P)
ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ؛ﺖﺳﺍ
ﺮﮔﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻪ ﻱ ) 6 ( ﺐﺴﺣ ﺮﺑu
ﻭP
ﻭ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣC
ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻪ ﻱ ) 9 ﻦﻳﺰﮕﻳﺎـﺟ ( ﺩﻮـﺷ
،
ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﻛ ﻢﻬﺳ ﺮﻫ ﻻﺎﻛ ﺎﻳ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻞﻛ ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻌﺑﺎﺗ
ﺯﺍ
P
ﻭ ﻪﺑ C
ﺖﺳﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻳﺁ . :ﻲﻨﻌﻳ
) 10 (
୧ൌ Ƚ୧ σ୬୨ୀଵɀ୧୨୨ Ⱦ୧ ቀେ
ቁ
ﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻪ ﻱ ) 10 ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﻡﺮﻓ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ ( ﻲﻣAIDS
ﻲـﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
P
ﺯﺍ ﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻪ ﻱ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻲﻣ :ﺪﻳﺁ
) 11 (
ൌ Ƚ σ Ƚଵ୧ଵ
ଶσ σ ɀ୧୨୧୨
ﻲﻣ ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻪﻧﻮﮕﻧﺎﻤﻫ ﮔﺎﺟ ﺎﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻱﺭﺍﺬ ﺭﺩP
ـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻪ ﻱ ) 10 ( ، ـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻱﺎ
ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ًﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻥﻮﺘـﺳﺍ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺁ ﻥﺩﺮـﻛ ﻲﻄﺧ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ًﻻﻮﻤﻌﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻲﻄﺧﺮﻴﻏ ﻝﺁ
1
ﺐﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻚﻳ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻱﺎﺟ ﻪﺑ2
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍP
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺮـﻳﺯ ﻞﻜـﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻥﻮﺘﺴﻟﺍ ﻭ ﻦﻳﺮﮔ) ،3
1990 (:
) 12 (
ൌ σ ୧୍
ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻲﺋﻮﭘ ﺎﻣﺍ )4
2012 (،
ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺖﻬﺟ ﻱﺭﻮﺘﺳﺩ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻲﻄﺧ ﺮﻴﻏ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ
ﺎﺗﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﺭﺩAIDS
ﻩﺩﺎـﺳ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ5
ﻪﺘـﺷﺍﺩﺮﺑ ﻥﺎـﻴﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳ ﺪـﻧﺍ
. ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﺯﺍ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ـﻄﺑﺍﺭ
ﻪ ﻱ 11 ﻲـﻣ ﺖـﺳﺩ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻳﺁ
ﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔﺎﺟﺎﺑ ﻄﺑﺍﺭ
ﻪ ﻱ 10 ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻲـﻄﺧ ﺮﻴﻏ ﺕﺎﺣ ﺮـﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑAIDS
ﻪـﺑ ﺖـﺳﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻳﺁ :
) 13 (
ɘ୧ൌ Ƚ୧ σ୩୨ୀଵɀ୧୨ ୨ Ⱦ୧ ቄୟሺܘሻ୫ ቅୠሺܘሻ ቂ ቄୟሺܘሻ୫ ቅቃଶǡ ൌ ͳǡ ǥ ǡ
ﻣﺯ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻧﺎ
ɉ୧
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻤﻫ ﺎﻫi
ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﺮﻔﺻ ﻱﻭﺎﺴﻣ ،
ﺖـﻟﺎﺣ ـﺟﺭﺩ ﻪ ﻱ ﻭﺩ ﻡ ﻪـﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺮـﻫ ﺭﺩ
ﻢﻬﺳ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﺘﺷﺍﺬﮔ ﺭﺎﻨﻛ ﻪ
ﻣ ﻲ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻥﻮـﺘﻳﺩ ﻲﻠـﺻﺍAIDS
ﺭﻮـﺒﻠﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻗﺎـﺑ ـﻣ ﻲ ﺪـﻧﺎﻣ
،
ﻨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎ ﺁ ﻥﻮﻣﺯ
ǣɉ୧ ൌ Ͳ୧
ﺍ ﻩﺯﺎﺟ ﻣ ﻲ ﺪﻫﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲﺘﺣﺍﺭ ﻪﺑ ﺎﺗ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ AIDS
ﻭ ﻝﺪﻣ
ﺟﺭﺩAIDS
ﻪ ﻱ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ
ﺩﺮﻴﮔ .
ﻕﻮﻓ ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ،
ﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪ
ﻱ ﺪﺸﻧ ﻥﺍﺮﺒﺟ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻩ
ﻱ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑi
ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪﺑ :ﻢﻳﺭﺍﺩj
Ԗ୧୨ൌ െɁ୧୨ ଵ
னቆɀ୧୨െ ቂȾ୧ Ʉ୧ᇱ ଶ
ୠሺ୮ሻୡሺ୮ǡሻ ቄ ୫
୫ഥబሺሻሺ୮ሻቅቃ ൈ ൫Ƚ୨ σ ɀ୪ ୨୪ ୲൯ െቀஒౠାౠ
ᇲቁ
ୠሺ୮ሻୡሺ୮ǡሻቂ ቄ ୫
୫ഥబሺሻሺ୮ሻቅቃଶቇ (14) ﻱﻻﺎﻛ (ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺨﻣ) ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﺸﻛ :ﺎﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑi
) 15 ( Ɋ୧ ൌ ͳ ଵ
னቂȾ୧ Ʉ୧ᇱ ଶ
ୠሺ୮ሻୡሺ୮ǡሻ ቄ ୫
୫ഥబሺሻሺ୮ሻቅቃ
ﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻥﺍﺮﺒﺟ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻪ
ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻜﺴﺗﻼﺳﺍ ﺪﻳﺁ
.
) 16 (
Ԗ୧୨େ ൌ Ԗ୧୨ Ɋ୧ɘ୨
1.Stone Index 2. Proxy
3.Green & Alston 4. Poi
5.Stata
ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺪﻨﻫﺩ
ﻩ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﻻﺎﻛ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
. ﻦﻴﺑ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ 0
ﻭ
1 ﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻭ ﻻﺎﻛ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﺮﮕ
1 ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻻﺎﻛ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺲﻛﻮﻟ ﻪﻧﺎﺸﻧ .
ﺶﺸﻛ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻪـﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻊﻃﺎﻘﺘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
) ﻱﺎـﻫ 11 ) ﻭ ( 14 ﺪﻨـﺷﺎﺑ ﻲـﻔﻨﻣ ( ،
ﻭﺩ
ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻭ i
ﻻﺎﻛ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺕﺭﻮﺼﻨﻳﺍ ﺮﻴﻏ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﺮﮕﻳﺪﻜﻳ ﻦﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ j
، ﻞﻤﻜﻣ ﺪﻧﺍ
1.
ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎـﺳ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ
، ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺻﺎﺧ ﺖـﻟﺎﺣ
ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛAIDS
ﻦﻴﻣﺄﺗ ـﺿﺮﻋ ﻭ ﻪ ﻱ ﺃﺪـﺒﻣ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ) ﻲـﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ
ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺰﻳﺎﻤﺘﻣ (ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺭﺩ
ﺡﻼﻄﺻﺍ
SDAIDS
ﻣﺎﻧ ﻴ ﺪ ﻲﻣ ﻩ ﺩﻮﺷ ، ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ .
ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺎﻣﺰﻤﻫ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻲـﻄﺧﺮﻴﻏ ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻣﺎـﻧ ﺮﻫﺎـﻇ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
NLSUR)
( ﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺎﺗﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻡﺮﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻧﺎﮔﺭﺯﺎﺑ ﻕﺎﺗﺍ ﻲﻤﺳﺭ ﺖﻳﺎﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ،
ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ، ﺏﺎـﺴﺣ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺮـﻬﺗ ﻱﺯﺭﻭﺎـﺸﻛ ﻭ ﻥﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻊﻤﺟ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻲﻠﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱﺭﻭﺁ
.
4 - ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻚـﻴﻜﻔﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺭﺎـﻣﺁ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺯﺍ ﺃﺪـﺒﻣ
1370 ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
، ﺕﺍﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﺩﻮﺒﻤﻛ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ،
ﺶـﺸﻛ ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺭﺩ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ 4
ﺲﻴﺋﻮﺳ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻪﺳ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ،
ﻪـﺑ ﻚﻳﺩﺰﻧ ﻪﻛ ﻪﺴﻧﺍﺮﻓ ﻭ ﻥﺎﻤﻟﺁ 50
ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻭ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﺩﻮﺷ
.
ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ
ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ ﻱﺍ
، ﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻪ ﻱ 2 ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ
ﺪﺷ . ﺭﺩ ﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻪ ﻱ ﻡﻭﺩ ، ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻠﺣﺮﻣ
ﻪ ﻱ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻖﺑﺎـﻄﻣ ﻡﻭﺩ
QUAIDS
ﻭ
ﺩﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﻡﺮﻓ ﻪﺑ ﻩ
ﻱ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻲﻣ
ﺷ ﻮ :ﺩ
) 17 (
ଵൌ Ƚଵ ɀଵଵ ଵ ɀଵଶ ଶ ɀଵଷ ଷ ɀଵସସ
Ⱦଵ ቄ ୫
ୟሺܘሻቅ భ
ୠሺܘሻቂ ቄ ୫
ୟሺܘሻቅቃଶ
ଶൌ Ƚଶ ɀଶଵ ଵ ɀଶଶ ଶ ɀଶଷ ଷ ɀଶସସ Ⱦଶ ቄ ୫
ୟሺܘሻቅ ) 18 (
మ
ୠሺܘሻቂ ቄ ୫
ୟሺܘሻቅቃଶ
ଷൌ Ƚଷ ɀଷଵ ଵ ɀଷଶ ଶ ɀଷଷ ଷ ɀଷସସ (19) Ⱦଷ ቄୟሺܘሻ୫ ቅ య
ୠሺܘሻቂ ቄ ୫
ୟሺܘሻቅቃଶ
1 ) ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻲﻨﻴﭙﻴﻠﻴﻓ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﻌﺟﺍﺮﻣ . 2007
(
