بررسی اثرات بهره¬وری آزادسازی تجاری از دیدگاه تابع هزینه: با استفاده از قضیه‌‌ی دوگان

(1)

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻩﺎﮔﺪﻳﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻱﺭﻭ

:

ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻴﻀﻗ

ﻱ ﻥﺎﮔﻭﺩ

ﻲﻟﺪﺒﻋ ﻥﺎﻣﺮﻬﻗ

١

ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ ،

ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ

abdoli@ut.ac.ir

ﻡﺪﻘﻣﺭﺎﻀﺣ ﻦﻳﺮﺴﻧ

2

ﺱﺭﺪﻣ ﺖﻴﺑﺮﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻫﻭﮋﭘ ،

n_hozarmoghadam@yahoo.com

ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :

24 / 12 / 1390 ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :

3 / 2 / 92

ﻩﺪﻴﻜﭼ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻪـﺑ ﻁﻮـﺑﺮﻣ ﻲﻜﻳﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﺒﻣ ﺭﻭﺮﻣ ﻭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻦﻤﺿ

ﻭ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺮﺛﺍ ،ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ

ﻲﻣ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ . ﺯﺍ ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﻚـﻳ

ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﻭ گﻮﻠـﺴﻧﺍﺮﺗ ﻱ

ﺭ ﺵﻭ ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ ﻪـﺑ ،SUR

ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻱﺯﺎﺳ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ

ﺭﺩ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱ 1385 - 1353 ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ

. ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ) ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ،ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ ﻭ ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ ،ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ،ﺭﺎﻛ

ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﻣ ( ﺶﺸﻛ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺎـﻬﻧ ﻲﻨﻴـﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﻭ ﻱﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ،ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻭ ﺭﻮﻛﺬـﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻢـﻫ

ﻦﻴـﻨﭼ

ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺩﺮﮔ

. ،ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪﺒﻨﺟ ﻭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﺛﺍ ،ﺲﭙﺳ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﻪﻛ

ﻥﺎـﮔﻭﺩ ﻪﻴﻀﻗ ﺩﺮﺑﺎﻛ

ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ، ﺩﺭﺍﺩ

ﺯﺍ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻢـﺠﺣ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺪـﺻﺭﺩ ﻚﻳ

،ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ

ﺳ ﻮ ﺩ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ، ﺍﺭ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭ 47

/ 0 % ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ )

ﻪـﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺮـﺛﺍ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ ( ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﻱﻮﺳ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ

ﺍﺭ 26 / 0 % ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻲﻣ ـﻫﺩ ﺪ ) ﻥﺎـﮔﻭﺩ ﺮـﺛﺍ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ ( . ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ،ﻥﺁ ﺮﺑ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﺪـﻨﻫﺩ

ﻱﺯﺎـﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻪـﻛ

ﻥﺁ ﺫﺎﺨﺗﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻨﺑ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻱﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺵﻭﺭ

ﻩﺎﮕ ﻲﻣ ﺎﻫ ﻮﺷ ﻪـﻛ ﺩ ﻪﻓﺮـﺻ ﺖﻤـﺳ ﻪـﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﻮـﺟ

ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻭ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﻣ ﻭ ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ ﻱ

ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺯﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺮﮔ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻭ ﺭﺎﻛ .

ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ :JEL D₂₄

،

C₂₂

،

F₄₁

،

O₄₇

ﻩژﺍﻭ ﺪﻴﻠﻛ :

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ،ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﺵﻭﺭ ،ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ،ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻣﺎﻧ ﺮﻫﺎﻇ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ

1 -

،ﻝﻮﺌﺴﻣ ﻩﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ

، ﺧ ﻴ ﻥﺎﺑﺎ ﻟﺎﻤﺷ ﺮﮔﺭﺎﻛ ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ ،ﻲ ﻱ

ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ

، ﻦﻔﻠﺗ ؛ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ :

61118071

2 - ،ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ

،ﺱﺭﺪﻣ ﺖﻴﺑﺮﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ،ﺮﺼﻧ ﻞﭘ ،ﺪﻤﺣﺍ ﻝﺁ ﻝﻼﺟ ﻩﺍﺮﮔﺭﺰﺑ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ

ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻭ

(2)

1 - ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ

ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﻭ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺰﻴﮕﻧﺍﺮﺑ ﺚﺤﺑ ﻲﻋﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ

ﻱﺯﺎـﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ًﻻﻮـﻤﻌﻣ ﻭ

ﻂـﺳﻮﺗ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﺮﺛﻮﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻱﺎـﻫﺩﺎﻬﻧ

ـﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ ﻲ

ﻦﻴﺑ ﻕﻭﺪﻨﺻ ،ﻲﻧﺎﻬﺟ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻥﺎﻣﺯﺎﺳ ﻭ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻲﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ

ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻱ ﻪـﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ

،ﻮﻀﻋ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻴﺻﻮﺗ

ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻕﻭﺪﻨﺻ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎﻬﺟ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻲﺘﺣ ﻦﻴﺑ

ﻤﻟﺍ ﻠ ﺕﺎﺣﻼـﺻﺍ ﻝﻮـﭘ ﻲﻠ

ﺖﻬﺟ ﺎﺑ ﻚﻤﻛ ﻁﺮﺷ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻭ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺪﻧﺍ .

ﻥﺎﻧﺍﺩﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻫﻭﺮﮔ ،ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﻮﺳ ﺯﺍ )

ﻲﻧﺎﻧﺍﺩﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ

،ﺶﻴﺑﺮﭘ ﻝﺍﺩﺮﻴﻣ ﻭ

،ﺮﮕﻨﻴﺳ ﻭ

ﺖﺴﻴﻟ ﻚﻳﺭﺪﻳﺮﻓ (

ﻪﺑ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻭ ﺪـﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺪـﻳﺩﺮﺗ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﺮﺗﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ

ﻘﺘﻌﻣ ؛ﺪﻨﺘــﺴﻫ ﻭﺮــﺑﻭﺭ ﻲﺘﺧﺎﻨــﺷ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻱﺎــﻫﺎﻨﮕﻨﺗ ﺎــﺑ ﺩﻮــﺟﻮﻣ ﻲــﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎــﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪــﻛ ﺪــﻧﺪ

ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﻛ ﻭ ﻪـﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﺏﺎـﺨﺘﻧﺍ ،ﻝﺪﻣ ﺢﻳﺮﺼﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ

ﻱ ﻲﮕﺘـﺴﺑ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ

ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ، ﻥﺁ

ﺎﻫ ﻩﺪـﻨﻨﻛ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﮔ ﺖﻴﻌﺿﻭ ﻦﻳﺮﺗﺪﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻒﻴﻌﺿ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﻦﻳﺮﺘﻬﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ

ﻲﻣ ﺪﻧﺭﺎﮕﻧﺍ . ﺎﺛﺁ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ،ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺭ

ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻩﮋﻳﻭ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ،ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﺳﺎﺳﺍ ﻭ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﺮﻈﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﺪﺳﺭ

. ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﺮـﺑ ﻱﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺭﺎﺛﺁ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺬﻟ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻪﻓﺮﺻ ﺵﺮﮕﻧ

ﻭ ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﻮﺟ

ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ،ﺍﺰﺠﻣ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ

. ،ﻝﻭﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ

ﻱ ،ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ

ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﺮﺑ ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﺎﺑ گﻮﻠﺴﻧﺍﺮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻭ ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻱﺎـﻫ

) ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﻣ ﻭ ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ ،ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ،ﺭﺎﻛ (

ﺶﺸﻛ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﻭ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ،ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻲﻨ

) ﻦﻟﺁ ﻭ ﺎﻤﻴﺷ ﻱﺭﻮﻣ -

ﺍﻭﺍﺯﻭﺍ ( ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺚﺤﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ

ﺩﺮﻴﮔ . ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻡﻭﺩ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻱ

،ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻥﺎﮔﻭﺩ ﻪﻴﻀﻗ ﺮﺑ ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﺎﺑ

.

ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺭﺎﺛﺁ ﻱﺯﺎﺳ

ﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ،ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ

ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻥﻮﭼ ؛ﺖﺳﺍ ﺩﺮﻓ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺼﺤﻨﻣ ﻛ

ﻪ ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﻌﺘﻣ ﻲﻤﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻲﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺯﺍ

1971 ﻮﺋﻻ ﻭ ﻦﺴﻨﮔﺭﻮﺟ ،ﻦﺴﻨﺘﺴﻳﺮﻛ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻥﻮﻨﻛﺎﺗ1

ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻥﺍﻭﺍﺮﻓ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱ

ﺎﻣﺍ ﭻﻴﻫ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭙﻧ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ

ﻪ ﺪﻧﺍ .

1- Christensen, Jorgenson & Lao

(3)

2 - ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﺒﻣ ﻲﻧﺎﻬﺟ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺮﻴﺧﺍ ﻪﻫﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻭ ﻥﺪﺷ

ﻢﻬﻣ ﺮﺗ ﺮـﺑ ،ﻥﺁ ﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﻦﻳ

ﺖﺴﻴﻧ ﻩﺪﻴﺷﻮﭘ ﻲﺴﻛ .

ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ًﻻﻮﻤﻌﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ

» ﻩﺍﺭ ﺮـﺳ ﺮـﺑ ﻊـﻧﺍﻮﻣ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ

ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻭ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ «

ﻲﻣ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻲﻣ ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻲﺳﺎﺳﺍ ﻑﺪﻫ ﻭﺩ ،ﺩﻮﺷ

ﺪـﻨﻨﻛ :

ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺯﺍﺮﺗ ﺩﻮﺒﻬﺑ ﻭ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﻫ

. ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ،ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻑﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﻜﻳ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻢﻬﻣ ﺮﺗ ﻦﻳ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺪﻴﺳﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ .

ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻱﺎﻫﺩﺮﻜﻳﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺯﻭﺮﻣﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ

ﺎﻫ ،ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱ ﺶﻴﭘ

ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﻨﻴﺑ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ

ﺗ ﻱﺭﺎﺠ ﺯﺍ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ ﺭﺎﺛﺁ ﻲﺘﺒﺜﻣ ﺮﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ

،ﺎﻫﺩﺮﻜﻳﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ . ﺯﺍ

ﺪﺷﺭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ

ﺍﺯ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻥﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ

ﻱ ﺖﻬﺟ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ

ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ

ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺢﻳﺮﺸﺗ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

:

1 - ﻲـﻣ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻖـﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺎـﺗ ﺩﻭﺭ

ﺎـﺑ ﻱﺍ

ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ،ﻪﺘﻓﺮﺸﻴﭘ ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ

ﺩﺮﻳﺬﭘ .

2 - ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻱﮋﺗﺍﺮﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻠﻛ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻱ

ﺖﻬﺟ ﺳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻲﺗﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻦﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﻱﮋﺗﺍﺮﺘ

ﺶﺨﺑ ﺖﻳﺎﺿﺭ ﺩﺮﻜﻠﻤﻋ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺮﺗ

.

3 - ﻥﻭﺮﺑ ﻱﮋﺗﺍﺮﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﺭﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺮﮔ

، ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﺖـﻬﺟ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ

ﻱ

ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﺪﻫﺩ

ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻫﺪﺑ ﺮﻴﻈﻧ ﻲﺗﻼﻜﺸﻣ ﺎﺑ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ )

ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻢﻋﺍ

ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻭ (

ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ .

4 - ﺮﺳ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ،ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺎﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺰﻳﺭ

ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻱ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻱژﻮـﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ

ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ،ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻲﻣ ﺖﻳﺍﺪﻫ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ گﺭﺰﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻪـﺑ ﺮـﻣﺍ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻭ ﺪﻨﻛ

ﻲﻣ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻊﻳﺮﺴﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺍﺮﻳﺯ ،ﺩﻮﺷ

ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻱ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻥﺩﻮﺑﺯﺎﺑ ﻱﻻﺎﺑ

ﺖﻴﻠﺑﺎﻗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺭﺍﻮﻤﻫ ،ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻢﻳژﺭ ﻭ ﺶﻴـﺑ

ﺮـﺗ ـﺑ ﻱ ﻱژﻮـﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺏﺬـﺟ ﻱﺍﺮ

ﺖﻬﺟ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮﺧﺮﺑ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﺸﻴﭘ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

.

5 - ﺕﻭﺮﺛ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺶﻴﺑ

ﺮﺗ ﻢﻟﺎﺳ ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ ﻭ ﻱﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﺢﻄﺳ ،ﺮﺗ

ﻭ ﺮـﺘﻬﺑ ﻲـﻄﻴﺤﻣ ﺖﺴﻳﺯ ﻱﺎﻫﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻭ ﻱﺮﮔﺭﺎﻛ ﻕﻮﻘﺣ ،ﺩﺍﻮﺳ ﻭ ﺵﺯﻮﻣﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺖـﺻﺮﻓ

ﺎـﻫ ﻱ

ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺪـﻧﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮﺧﺮﺑ ﻱﺮﺗ

. ﺲـﻜﻋ ﻪـﺑ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻦـﻜﻤﻣ ﻱﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻊـﻧﺍﻮﻣ ،

ﺐﺒـﺳ

ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﺳﺭﺩﻮﺳ ﺯﺍ ﺕﻭﺮﺛ ﻅﺎﺤﻟ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺪﺑ ﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﻊﺿﻭ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺖﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻣﺍ ،ﺪﻧﻮﺷ ﻲﺗﺪﻣ

ﻪﺘﺴﻫﺁ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻪﺘﻓﺭ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻊﺑﺎـﻨﻣ ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺩﺍﺩ ﺪـﻨﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﺮﺗ

ﻢـﻛ ﺮـﺗ ﻊـﻓﺭ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻱ

ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﺪﻨﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺭﺎﻴﺘﺧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻌﻣﺎﺟ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﺕﻼﻜﺸﻣ .

(4)

ﺭﺩ ﺖﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﻦﻳﻮﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺩﺮﻜﻳﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲ

ﻪـﺑ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﺖـﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻪﻠﻴـﺳﻭ

ﻱﺎـﻫ

R&D ﻱﺎﻛﺮـﺷ ﻱژﻮـﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺶـﻧﺍﺩ ﻪـﺑ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻚـﻳ ﻲـﺳﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﻥﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ،ﺩﻮﺷ ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺩ

ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻲﻣ ﻢﻫﺍﺮﻓ ﺍﺭ ﺵﺍ

1ﺪﻨﻛ . ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺯﺎﺟﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ،ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ﻱﺎـﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﻥﺎﮔﺪـﻨﻨﻛﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺪﻫﺩ

گﺭﺰﺑ ﺮﺗ ﻭ ﺪﻨﺑﺎﻳ ﻲﺳﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﻢـﻫ

ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻦﻴـﻨﭼ ﻱ

R&D ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮـﻧ ﻖـﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻖﻳﻮـﺸﺗ ،ﺎـﻫ

ﻣ ﻲ ﺪﻨﻛ . ﻪﺑ ﻩﮋﻳﻭ ﺐﺒﺳ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻪـﺑ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻝﺎـﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻭ ﻱﺍ

ﻪﻄﺳﺍﻭ ﻪﺳﻭﺮﭘ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺍ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ

ﻱ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﺍﺪﻴﭘ ﻲﺳﺮﺘﺳﺩ ،ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻲﺳﺎﺳﺍ ﻭ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﺣ .

3 - ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻲﻧﺎﺒﻣ

ﻪﺻﻼﺧ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺍ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ

ﻱﺭﻭ ﻭ

ﻪﺑ ،ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺝﺭﺎﺧ ﻭ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍﺪﺷﺭ ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺻﻼﺧ ﻞﻜﺷ

) 1 ( ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺭﻭﺁ :

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 1 - ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻣ

ﻦﻴﺸﻴﭘ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ

ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ ﻡﺎﻧ

ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ

ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻭ ﻙﻭﺮﺑ ﺖﺳﻭ

ﺕﻮﺒﻳﺎﺗ ) 1995 ( ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺮﺑ ﻚﻳﺰﻜﻣ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﻭ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ

ﺶﻴﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺮﺗ

ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﺭﺩ ﻩﮋﻳﻭ ﻪﺑ ،ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺩ ﻪﺑ ،ﻪﻟﺩﺎﺒﻣ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ

ﺎﻣﺭﺎﺷ ) 2000 ( ﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ

ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻱﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺭﺎﻛ ﻝﺎﭙﻧ ﻱﺍ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﻡﺪﻋ

ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﺩﻮﺒﻬﺑ ﻲﻠﻛ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺍﺩ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻱﺎﻀﻓ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺭﻭ ﺑ

ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪ

ﺖﺧﺎﺳﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﻮﺒﻤﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺮﻫﺎﻣ ﺭﺎﻛ

ﻲﺘﻴﻣﺁ ) 2005 ( ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺭﺎﺛﺁ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱﻭﺭ ﻱﺭﻭ ﺭﺩ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ

ﻱﺰﻧﻭﺪﻧﺍ -

ﻊﻓﺎﻨﻣ ﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﻪﻓﺮﻌﺗ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﻊﻓﺎﻨﻣ

ﻪﻓﺮﻌﺗ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺎﻬﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻲﻳﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻱﻪﻓﺮﻌﺗ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺮﺗﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺛﺍ- ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻄﺳﺍﻭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ،ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻱ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ

ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻲﻤﻧ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ .

ﻝﻮﺋﺎﭘ ﺲﻛﺭﺎﻣ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ

- ﺮﺛﺍ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻭ ﻊﻧﺍﻮﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

1 - ﻲﻤﻴﺣﺭ ﺎﺿﺮﻴﻠﻋ ،ﻱﺩﺮﺟﻭﺮﺑ )

1384 ( ،

"

ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻥﻮـﻣﺍﺮﻴﭘ ﻱﺩﺮﺑﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻥﺎـﻴﻣ ﻱ

ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ

"

، ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﻪﻣﺎﻧ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻧﺍ ﻡﻮﻠﻋ ﻱ

، ﻢﺠﻨﭘ ﻝﺎﺳ

، ﻩﺭﺎﻤﺷ ﻢﻫﺪﻔﻫ ﻱ

(5)

ﻦﻴﺸﻴﭘ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ

ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ ﻡﺎﻧ

ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ

) 2009 ( ﺮﺑ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﺎﻴﻟﺍﺮﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ

ﺮﺛﺍ ﻭ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻥﺁ ﺮﺑ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺶﺨﺑ

- ﺮﺛﺍ ﻱﻮﻗ ﺮﺗ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺮﺛﺍ

- ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺫﺎﺨﺗﺍ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﺮﺗﺮﺑ

ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺮﺗﺯﺎﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻢﻳژﺭ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ

ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﺪﻴﺠﻣ ) 2010 ( ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞﻛ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻡﺪﻋ

ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﺑ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻲﻨﺴﺤﻣ ﻭ ﺍﺭﺁﺮﻬﻣ

) 1383 ( ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺮﺑ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺭﺎﺛﺁ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﻭ ﺮﺛﺍ

ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﻭ ﻱﻮﻗ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻭ ﻱﺭﻭ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﺮﺑ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻱﺮﺼﻣ ﻭ ﺩﺍﮋﻧ

ﻲﻤﻴﻫﺍﺮﺑﺍ ) 1385 ( ﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻱ ﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱ ﺮﺑ

ﺭﺩ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺩﺮﻜﻠﻤﻋ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻝﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ

ﻱ ﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱ ﺍﺮﺑ ﻱ ﺮﺳ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻳ ﻊ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺭﻭ ﻱ ﻟﻮﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞﻛ ﻴ

ﺪ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻳ ﻚ

ﻁﺮﺷ ﻓﺎﻛ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻡﺯﻻ ﻲ

ﻧ ﻴ ﺖﺴ .

ﻩﺎﺷ ﻱﺩﺎﺑﺁ ) 1386 ( ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ

ﻦﻴﺑ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ،ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻭ ﻞﻠﻤﻟﺍ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱﻭﺭ ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻧﺍ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺮﺛﻮﻣ

ﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺖﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻪﻳ

ﻱ ﻘﺤﺗ ﻴ ﻖ

ﻭ ﻱﻪﻳ ﺎﻣﺮﺳ، ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻭﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻱﻪ ﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻧﺎﺴﻧﺍ ﻲ

، ﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺕﺪﺷ ﻱ

ﻥﺩﻮﺑﺯﺎﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻭ

ﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻭ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲ

ﺮﺑ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱﻭﺭ ﻱﺭﻭ ﻞﻛ ﻟﻮﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻴ ﺪ

ﺦﻴﺷ ﻭ ﻲﺒﻴﻃ

ﻲﻳﺎﻬﺑ ) 1387 ( ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﺮﺛﺍ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻧﺍ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﺭﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ OIC

ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﻭ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ

ﻲ ﻭ

ﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻪﻳ ﻱ ﻧﺎﺴﻧﺍ ﻲ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺮﺑ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻟﻮﺗ ﻴ ﺪ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ

ﻭ ﻩﺩﺍﺯﺭﺎﺠﻧ ﻳﺎﻨﻤﺗ ﻲ ﺮﻓ ) 1391 ( ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ

ﻥﺎﻣﺯﺎﺳ

ﻱﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻲﻣﻼﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﻭ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺎﻛ ﻱﺭﻭ

4 - ﻭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺎﻫ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ،ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺡﺮﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ :

(6)

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 2 - ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻲﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻡﺎﻧ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ

ﻊﺒﻨﻣ

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ

ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﻳﺍﺰﻣ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻭ ﺩﺰﻤﺘﺳﺩ ﻭ ﻕﻮﻘﺣ ﻱ ﺭﺎﻛ

ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﺖﻬﺟ ﻲﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻩﻮﺟﻭ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ

،ﺩﻮﻬﺸﻣ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻭ ﺩﻮﻬﺸﻣﺎﻧ ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﺎﻫ

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ

ﻞﻣﺎﺣ ﻲﺋﺎﻬﻧ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ ﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺕﺭﺍﺯﻭ

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﻣ ﻱ ﻭ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻪﻴﻠﻛ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ

ﻪﻄﺳﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻞﻛ ﻱ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ

ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱ ﺭﺎﻛ ، ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﻣ ﻭ ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ ،

ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ

ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻱ

ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺎﺘﺳ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻟﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻣ

ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺭﺎﻛ

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱ ﻞﻏﺎﺷ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﻞﻛ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﺮﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﺗ ﻭ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ

ﺄ ﺕﺎﺴﻴﺳ

، ﻦﻴﺷﺎﻣ ﺕﺍﺰﻴﻬﺠﺗ ﻭ ﺕﻻﺁ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺖﺻﺮﻓ ﻱ )

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ

ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ( ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻭ ﻥﺁ ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺳﺍ ﻱ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﺖﺧﻮﺳ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ

ﻩﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﻓ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺪﻌﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻛ ﻥﺁ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺷﻭﺮﻓ ﻩﺪﻤﻋ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻲﻠﻛ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻪﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣﺮﻳﺯ ﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺕﺭﺍﺯﻭ

ﺩﺍﻮﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻭ ﻡﺎﺧ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻥﺁ ﻪﻛ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﻣ ﺐﺴﺣﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻋﻮﻨﺼﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ

ﻲﻠﻛ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻪﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣﺮﻳﺯ ﻩﺪﻤﻋ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺷﻭﺮﻓ ﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺕﺭﺍﺯﻭ

ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ

ﻚﻳ ﻢﻴﻘﻣ ﻱﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻴﻌﻣ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱ

ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﻭ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻚﻳ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻭ ﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺍﺪﻫﺍ ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﻱﺮﺗﺎﻬﺗ ﻪﻠﻣﺎﻌﻣ ،ﺵﻭﺮﻓ

ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻭ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ

ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻳ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻭ ﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺍﺪﻫﺍ ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﻱﺮﺗﺎﻬﺗ ﻪﻠﻣﺎﻌﻣ ،ﺪﻳﺮﺧ

ﻚ ﺯﺍ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ

ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻲﺘﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ

ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺽﻮﻋﻼﺑ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﺒﺟﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺩﻮﺑﺯﺎﺑ

ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﻢﻬﺳ

ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ GDP

ﻊﻧﺍﻮﻣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ

ﻪﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ GDP

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﺎﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﺑ ،ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻤﺳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ 1376

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ .

ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ گﻮﻠﺴﻧﺍﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ

ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺯ :

y yy i i i

ln C(W, Y) D D⁰ ln Y D1 (ln Y)²

¦

⁴1D ln W 2

ij i j yi i z

i j ln W ln W i ln W ln Y ln z

1

¦ ¦

⁴1 ⁴ 1D

¦

⁴ 1D D 2

(7)

) 1 (

iz i t tt it i

i i

yt

ln z ln w T T T ln W

T ln Y i, j K, L, E, R

D D D D

D

¦

⁴1 1 ²

¦

⁴1

2

ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ :C ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻞﻛ ﻱ

، :Y ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﻱ

، Wi

: ﻩﺩﺎـﻬﻧ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﻱ

ﻡﺍi

) :L ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ،ﺭﺎﻛ :K ،ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ :E

،ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ :R ﻪـﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﻣ (

، :Z ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ ﺯﺎـﺑ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ :T

ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻜﻳژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ .

ﺯﺍ ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻖﺘﺸﻣ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺎﻔﺷ ﻢﻟ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ

ﻱ ) 1 ( ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ln Wi

ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ،

ﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﻱﺎ )

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻢﻬﺳ ﺐﺴﺣ ﺮﺑ (

ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﺪﻳﺁ :

) 2

i i i (

i i j ij j

i i

yi iz it

W W x

ln C C

S ln W

ln W W C C

ln Y ln z T i, j K, L, E, R

w w u D D

w w

D D D

¦

⁴ 1

ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ Si

ﻢﻬﺳ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﺍi ﺖﺳﺍ ﻡ .

5 - ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻭ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ

ﺵﻮـﺧ ﺩﻮـﻴﻗ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﺖﺤﺗ ﻲﻄﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﻨﻣ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺭﺎـﺘﻓﺭ

) ﻦﮕﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻥﺭﺎﻘﺗ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ

( ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺭﺎـﻬﭼ ﻥﻮـﭼ ﺎﻫ

ﻢﻫ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ

ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻴﻧ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ

، ﻢﻬﺳ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﺍﺬﻟ )

ﺩﺍﻮـﻣ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ

ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ( ﻑﺬﺣ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪﻠﻴﺳﻭ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺪﻧﺎﻣ ﻲﻗﺎﺑ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻪﺳ ﻭ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑSUR

ﺩﺩﺮﮔ .

ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺭﺎﻘﺗ ﻭ ﻲﻨﮕﻤﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ

) 3 ( ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﻳﺍﺭﺍ .

ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ

ﻱﺎﻛ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ -

ﻭﺩ ﻲـﻣ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ . ﻪـﻛ ﺭﻮﻄﻧﺎـﻤﻫ ﻩﺪﻫﺎـﺸﻣ ﺭﻮﻛﺬـﻣ ﻝﻭﺪـﺟ ﺭﺩ

ﻲﻣ ﻱﺎﻛ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺩﻮﺷ -

ﺮـﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻥﺭﺎـﻘﺗ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻭﺩ 44

/ 1 ﺢﻄـﺳ ﻭ

ﻥﺁ ﻪﺑ ﻖﻠﻌﺘﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ 6971

/ 0 ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻩﺪـﻨﻫﺩ ﻱ ﻪﻴـﺿﺮﻓ ﻝﻮـﺒﻗ ﻱ

H0

ﺭﺩ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻡﻮﺳﺮﻣ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺡﻮﻄﺳ .

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻦﻴﺸﻫ ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎﻣ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻥﺭﺎﻘﺘﻣ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱ

ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ ﮔ

ﺩﺮﻴ . ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻲﭼ ﻱ - ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻭﺩ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻲـﻨﮕﻤﻫ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ

88 / 93

ﻪﺑ ﻥﺁ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻭ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺮﻔﺻ

ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻛﺎـﺣ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ

ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺽﻭﺮﻓ ﻲﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺩ

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﺍﺭ ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﻲـﻨﮕﻤﻫ ﺽﺮـﻓ ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻪﺑ

ﻲﻤﻧ ﺩﺮﻛ ﻝﻮﺒﻗ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ .

ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﺑ

، ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻥﻮﭼ

ﻲﻣ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻲﻨﻤﺿ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ ﻢﻫ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻢﻴﻨﻛ

.

(8)

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 3 - ﻲﻨﮕﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻥﺭﺎﻘﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻉﻮﻧ

ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ H₀ ﻱﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ

ﻱﺎﻛ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ -

ﻭﺩ

ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ

ﻥﺭﺎﻘﺗ D Dij ji izj 1/44 0/6971

ﻲﻨﮕﻤﻫ

n n n

i ij ij

i i j

n n n

iY iZ iT

i i i

, ,

D D D

¦ ¦ ¦

1 1 1

1 0 0

0 0 0 93/88 0/0000

ﺬﺧﺄﻣ : ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻢﻬـﺳ ﺕﻻﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻭ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ )

ﺕﻻﺩﺎـﻌﻣ )

1 ( ﻭ ) 2 ((

ﻝﺎـﻤﻋﺍ ﺎـﺑ

ﺪﺤﻣ ﺖﻳﺩﻭ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﺎﻫ ﺵﻭﺭ SUR ءﺍﺰـﺟﺍ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫﺩﻮﺧ ﻊﻓﺭ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺯ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ

ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﻝﻼﺧﺍ ﻝﻭﺪﺟ

) 4 ( ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺑ

ﺖﺳﺩ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺪﻧﺍ :

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 4 - ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ )1

( ﻭ ) 2 ( ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻊﻓﺭ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻌﺑ

ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻱ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ t ﺐﻳﺮﺿ

10 / 0 - 002 / 0

EZ - 85 D /6 - 04 / 0

KK - 58 D / 1 - 36 / 0 - D₀

03 / 1 01 /

T 0 51 D / 0 - 001 / 0

KE - 97 D

/ 1 19 /

Y 1 D

62 / 3 - 01 / 0

LT - 89 D / 0 - 02 / 0

EE - 21 D / 3 - 61 / 8

YY - D

82 / 0 - 005 / 0

KT - 23 D / 0 01 /

LY 0 13 D / 0 03 /

L 0 D

18 / 1 03 /

ET 0 07 D / 2 - 11 / 0

KY - 08 D / 22 86 /

K 0 D

97 / 0 - 001 / 0

TT - 28 D / 0 - 01 / 0

EY - 12 D

/ 1 17 /

E 0 D

9 / 0 - 02 / 0

YT - 37 D / 1 - 11 / 0

Z - 06 D / 0 - 001 / 0

LL - D

25 / 1 - 03 / 0

LZ - 10 D

/ 0 0005 /

LK 0 D

11 / 1 - 04 / 0

KZ - 43 D / 0 - 01 / 0

LE - D

* ﻢﻬﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ

ﻱ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﻣ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻲﻨﮕﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻥﺭﺎﻘﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ .

ﻢﻫ ﻪـﻛ ﺪﻧﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﻦﻴـﻴﻌﺗ ﺐﻳﺮـﺿ

R²

ﻭ ﻢـﻫ ﻩﺭﺎـﻣﺁ ﻦﻴـﻨﭼ ﻱ

ﻦﻴـﺑﺭﻭﺩ -

ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺮﻫ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻥﻮﺴﺗﺍﻭ ﻻﺎﺑ

ﻭ ﻲﻟﻮﺒﻗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻢﻗﺭ ﻱﺎﻳﻮﮔ ﻪﻛ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ

ﺏﻮﺧ ﺵﺯﺍﺮﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ

ﺖﺳﺍ .

(9)

ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ

ﺭﺩ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ

ﻞﻳﺫ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ

ﻲﻣ ﺩﺩﺮﮔ :

ﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻝﻭ ( ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ

ﻱ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ

، ﺮـﺑ ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻲـﮔﮋﻳﻭ

ﺎـﻫ ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﻱ

گﻮﻠﺴﻧﺍﺮﺗ - ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻊﺑﺎﺗﺮﻌﻘﺗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ

،ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻦﻴﺸﻫ ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎﻣ

ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ :

. . . .

H . . . .

. . . .

ª º

« »

¬ ¼

0 25 0 12 0 01 0 15 0 18 0 22 0 09 0 71 0 03 0 05 0 1 0 08 0 01 0 18 0 13 6 77

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻃﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺕﺎﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻫﺩ

:

H₁ 0 25 0. , H,, H, H, HHHHH₂₂ 0 03 0... , H,,, H, H, H, HHHHHHHHHH₃₃ 0 003 0... , H,, H, HHHH₄₄₄ ##00

ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧﺭﺩ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﻦﻴﻌﻣ ﻪﺒﺷ ﻦﻴﺸﻫ ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎﻣ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ

ﻪﺒﺷ

ﻲﻣ ﺮﻌﻘﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ .

- ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻱﺩﻮﻌﺻ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺎﻫ

ﻢﻬﺳ ﺖﻣﻼﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺑ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻱﺩﻮﻌﺻ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ

. ﻥﻮـﭼ

ﻲﻃ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻡﺎﻤﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻝﺎﺳ

ﺎﻫ ﻱ 85 - 1353 ﺖﺳﺍ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻩﺭﺍﻮﻤﻫ

، ﻁﺮـﺷ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺍﺬﻟ

ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

.

- ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻚﻴﺘﺗﻮﻤﻫ ﺖﻴﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﻢﻬـﺳ ﺎﻳ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻣ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻚﻴﺘﺗﻮﻤﻫ

ﻮﺨﻧ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﺐﻳﺭﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺩﺮﻛ ﺪﻫﺍ

. ﻲﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻪﺑ ،ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ

ﺪـﻨﻛ ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺱﺎـﻴﻘﻣ ﺮـﮔﺍ

ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺨﻧ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﺭﺎﻛ

ﺩﺮﻛ . ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻡﺎـﻤﺗ ﺮﮔﺍ ﺮﺿﺎﺣ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ DYi

ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺪﻧ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺩ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻚﻴﺘﺗﻮﻤﻫ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺖﻔﮔ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ .

ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻪﺳ

LY, KY, EY

D D D

ﺎـﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻦﻳﺍ ، ﺮـﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺎـﻣﺁ ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ

ﻲﻤﻧ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

. ﺖﺳﺍ ﻚﻴﺘﺗﻮﻤﻫ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺲﭘ

، ﺪـﺷ ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺨﻧ ﺩﺭ .

ﺎـﻣﺍ

ﻥﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﺖﻬﺟ ﺶﻴﺑ

ﺮﺗ ﻱﺮـﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﻲﻧﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺘﺴﻳﺎﺑ ،ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻚﻴﺘﺗﻮﻤﻫ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺯﺍ

ﺪﻨﻛ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺍﺭ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﻔﺻ

، ﻪـﻛ ﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺖـﻬﺟ ﺪـﻟﺍﻭ ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ

ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ

:

(10)

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 5 ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻚﻴﺘﺗﻮﻤﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ-

Wald Test:

Null Hypothesis:

C(13)=0 C(14)=0 C(15)=0

Chi-square 3.823892 Probability 0.2811

ﺬﺧﺄﻣ : ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ

ﺪﻟﺍﻭ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﺪﻴﻗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ )

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 5 (،

ﺍﺭ ﻲـﻠﺒﻗ ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺪـﻴﻳﺄﺗ

ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻛ . ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ

ﻱ ﻲﭼ – ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻭﺩ )

82 / 3 ( ﻲﻳﺎـﻬﻧ ﺖـﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻭ

ﻪﻃﻮﺑﺮﻣ ) 28 / 0 ( ﺍﺭ ﻡﻮـﺳﺮﻣ ﺖـﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺡﻮﻄـﺳ ﻲﻣﺎـﻤﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻚﻴﺘﺗﻮﻤﻫ ﺽﺮﻓ

ﻲﻤﻧ ﺩﺮﻛ ﺩﺭ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ .

- ﺑﺎﺛ ﻲﻫﺩﺯﺎﺑ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺖ

ﻩﺩﺯﺎﺑ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﻱ

ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑ ﺮـﮔﺍ ﻂـﻘﻓ ﻭ ﺮـﮔﺍ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺱﺎـﻴﻘﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ

C(W,Y)=Y.C(W) ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﻳﺰﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ

. ﺭﺩ ﻂـﻘﻓ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻩﺩﺯ ﻦﻴـﻤﺨﺗ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻕﻮـﻓ ﻁﺮﺷ

ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ ﻲﺗﺭﻮﺻ

iY, YY, YT D D D

ﺪﻨـﺷﺎﺑ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻤﻫ

ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ًﺎﻓﺎﻀﻣ ﻭ DY

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻚﻳ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ .

ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﺎﻣﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﺩt ﻝﻭﺪـﺟ ﺭ )

4

( ﺩﺯﺎـﺑ) ﺽﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ،ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻴﻧ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﮕﻤﻫ DiY ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻫﺩﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻲﻫ

ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ (

ﺩﺭ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﻥﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﺖﻬﺟ ﺶﻴﺑ

ﺮﺗ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ

ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻢﻫ

ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻱ ﻲﭼ - ﻲﻣ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻭﺩ ﺩﺩﺮﮔ

:

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 6 - ﻩﺩﺯﺎﺑ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻱ

ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ Wald Test:

C(2)=1 C(3)=0 C(13)=0 C(14)=0 C(15)=0 C(25)=0

ﻲﻣ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ

ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻱ ﻲﭼ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ -

ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻭﺩ

ﺩﻭﺪﺣ ﻱﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ 94

ﺮﻔﺻ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻥﺁ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ

ﺯﺍ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻛ

ﺩﺭ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﻲﻫﺩﺯﺎﺑ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻣ

.

(11)

- ﺏﺎﻛ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ -

ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺱﻼﮔﺍﺩ

ﺏﺎﻛ ﻁﺮﺷ -

ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺱﻼﮔﺍﺩ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ

ﻱ ﺏﺎﻛ - ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﺱﻼﮔﺍﺩ .

ﻪـﻣﺯﻻ

ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻪـﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻁﺮﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ Dij

ﻭ DYi ﻭ DYY ﺯﺍ

ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺮﻈﻧ .

ﺎﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺩ t

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ) 4 ( ﻲﻣ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﺷ ﻒـﻗﺍﻭ ﻪـﺘﻜﻧ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ ﺶﻴـﺑ

ﺮـﺗ

ﻕﻮﻓ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﺮﻛﺬﻟﺍ

ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻥﺍﺪﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ،ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﺮﻔﺻ ﻒﻟﺎﺨﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺩ

ﺏﺎــﻛ ﻞﻜــﺷ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺖﻌﻨــﺻ ﺶــﺨﺑ ﺪــﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎــﺗ -

ﻱﺩﺎﻬﻨــﺸﻴﭘ ﻞﻜــﺷ ﻭ ﺖــﺴﻴﻧ ﺱﻼــﮔﺍﺩ

ﺩﻮـﺑ ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﺒﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻞﻜﺷ گﻮﻠﺴﻧﺍﺮﺗ .

ﻪـﺘﺒﻟﺍ

ﻥﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﺖﻬﺟ ﺶﻴﺑ

ﺮﺗ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺯﺍ

، ﻪﻠﻴـﺳﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻩﺭﺎـﻣﺁ

ﻱ ﻲـﭼ ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ -

ﺩ ﻭ

ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻢﻫ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻲﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺩﺮﮔ

:

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 7 - ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺱﻼﮔﺍﺩ ﺏﺎﻛ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ Wald Test:

C(3)=0 C(8)=0 C(9)=0 C(11)=0 C(13)=0 C(14)=0 C(15)=0

ﻞﻜﺷ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻖﺑﺎﻄﻣ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺏﺎﻛ

- ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺱﻼﮔﺍﺩ ﺪﻨﻛ

. ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑ ﺲﭘ

ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻢﻫ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺏﺎﻛ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺰﻴﻧ -

ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺱﻼﮔﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺷ

.

- ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻱ ﺎﻫ

ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻱ ﻦﻟﺁ ﻲﻨﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﻭ ﻱﺩﻮﺧ ﻲﺋﺰﺟ ﻱﺎﻫ

- ﺍﻭﺍﺯُﺍ

1

ﻞﺳﺍﺭ ﻭ ﻲﺑﺭﻮﻜﻠﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻖﺑﺎﻄﻣ ،2

ﺶﺸﻛ ﺎﻫ ،ﻦـﻟﺁ ﻊﻃﺎﻘﺘﻣ ﻲﻨﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﻱ ﻪـﺟﺭﺩ

ﻱ ﻲﻨﻴـﺸﻧﺎﺟ

ﻴﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻭﺩ ﻦ ﺪﻨﻫﺩ

. ﻉﻮﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺶﺸﻛ ﺎﻫ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ

ﻱ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ گﻮﻠﺴﻧﺍﺮﺗ

ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ) 3 ( ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ :

1- Allen Partial Elasticity of Substitution.

2- Blackorby and Russel (1975).

(12)

) 3 (

ij ij

i j ii i i ii

i

AES S S

S S AES

S D

D ²

2

1

،ﻻﺎﺑ ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﻭ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺵﺯﺍﺮﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺶﺸﻛ

ﺎﻫ ﻦـﻟﺁ ﻲﻨﻴـﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﻱ

ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﻖﺑﺎﻄﻣ ،ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺮﻳﺯ

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

1.

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 8 - ﺶﺸﻛ ﻦﻟﺁ ﻲﻨﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﻭ ﻱﺩﻮﺧ ﻲﺋﺰﺟ ﻱﺎﻫ

R E K ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ L

25 / 1 17 / 1 02 / 1 75 / 2 - ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ L

28 / 0 98 / 0 1 - ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ K

05 / 1 11 - ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ E

5 / 8 - ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍﺩﺍﻮﻣ R

ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﺭﻮﻃ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻝﻭﺪﺟ

) 8 ( ﻪﻤﻫ ،ﺖﺳﺍﺪﻴﭘ ﺶﺸﻛ

ﺎﻫ ﻱﺩﻮﺧ ﻲﺋﺰﺟ ﻱ ﺖﻣﻼﻋ ،ﻦﻟﺁ

ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ )

ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ( ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻪﻛ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺭﺍﺪـﻘﻣ ﻭ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﺱﻮـﻜﻌﻣ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ

ﻲﻣ ﺪﻫﺩ . ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺶﺸﻛ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻲﻨﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﻱ

،ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﺩﺍﻮـﻣ ﻭ ﻱژﺮـﻧﺍ

ﻭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﻣ ﻭ ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ ،ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻢﻫ

ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﻦ ) ﻲﻨﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﺶﺸﻛ گﺭﺰﺑ

ﺮﺗ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺯﺍ ( ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ .

ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻱ ﺎﻫ

ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﻃﺎﻘﺘﻣ ﻭ ﻱﺩﻮﺧ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱ

ﺶﺸﻛ ﺎﻫ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ

ﻱ ﺯﺍ گﻮﻠﺴﻧﺍﺮﺗ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ

ﻱ ) 4 ( ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺪﻳﺁ

:

) 4 (

ii ii i

ij ij j

ji ij i

AES S

H u

ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ

ﻱ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺶﺸﻛ ﺎﻫ ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ

، ﺭﺩ

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ) 9 ( ﻩﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ :

1 - ﺶﺸﻛ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﻫ .

(13)

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 9 - ﺶﺸﻛ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﻃﺎﻘﺘﻣ ﻭ ﻱﺩﻮﺧ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﺎﻫ

R E

K ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ L

19 / 0 14 / 0 46 / 0 72 / 0 - ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ L

04 / 0 12 / 0 45 / 0 - 28 / 0 ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ K

16 / 0 02 / 1 - 44 / 0 33 / 0 ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ E

27 / 1 - 13 / 0 13 / 0 35 / 0 ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﻣ R

ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﻪﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻱ ﺶـﺸﻛ ﺎـﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﻃﺎـﻘﺘﻣ ﻭ ﻱﺩﻮـﺧ ﻲـﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱ

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ) 9 ( ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻱ ﻪﻤﻫ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺶـﺸﻛ

ﺎـﻫ ﺖـﻣﻼﻋ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺩﻮـﺧ ﻲـﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱ

ﻲﻣ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻭ ﺢﻴﺤﺻ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ

. ﺭﺪـﻗ ﻅﺎـﺤﻟ ﺯﺍ ،ﻪـﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺩﺍﻮـﻣ ﻲـﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺶـﺸﻛ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ

ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ ﻖﻠﻄﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ

ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺖﻴـﺳﺎﺴﺣ ،ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻪﺑ

ﺩﻮﺧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺶﻴﺑ

ﺮﺗ ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻪﺳ ﺯﺍ

ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﺸﻛ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ،ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻢـﻛ

ﺮـﺗ ﺮﻳﺎـﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎـﻬﻧ ﻦﻳﺪـﺑ ؛ﺖـﺳﺎﻫ

ـﻳﺍ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺖﻴﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﻪﻛ ﻡﻮﻬﻔﻣ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﻥﺍﺮ

ﺩﻮﺧ ﻢﻛ ﺮﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻪﺳ ﺯﺍ .

ﻲﻣ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ

ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ ﺮﺑ

ﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ .

ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴـﻨﭼ ﻱﺩﺪـﻋ ﺭﺍﺪـﻘﻣ ﻖـﻠﻄﻣ ﺭﺪـﻗ ﺶـﺸﻛ

ﺎـﻫ ﻱﺩﻮـﺧ ﻲـﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱ

ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻭ ﺭﺎﻛ

ﻢﻛ ﺮﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺍﺬﻟ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺖﻔﮔ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ

ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻭﺩ ﻲﺑ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺶﺸﻛ

ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ .

ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻱ ﺎﻫ

ﺎﻤﻴﺷ ﻱﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻨﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﻱ

1MSE

ﻞﺳﺍﺭ ﻭ ﻲﺑﺭﻮﻜﻠﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻖﺑﺎﻄﻣ ،

گﻮﻠﺴﻧﺍﺮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﻤﻴﺷ ﻱﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻨﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﺶﺸﻛ

ﻪﺑ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻲﻣ

ﺩﻮﺷ :

) 5 (

ij ij jj

MSE H H izj

ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ Hij

ﻩﺩﺎـﻬﻧ ﻭﺩ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﻃﺎـﻘﺘﻣ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻭ i, j

Hjj

ﻲـﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺶـﺸﻛ

ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻱﺩﻮﺧ ﻲﻣj

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ) 10 ( ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ، ﺶﺸﻛ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻨﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﻱ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻤﻴـﺷ ﻱﺭﻮـﻣ

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺪﻫﺩ

.

1- MorishimaSubstitution Elasticity.