ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ
ﻧ ﺭﺍﻮﻤﻫﺎ ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ
ﺎﺑ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺯﺍ
ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻱ ﻑﻭﺮﺘﺳﺎﺗﺎﻛ
ﻱﺪﻤﺤﻣ ﺭﻮﭘﺎﺷ
ﺭﺎﻳﺩﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻱ ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ
ﻲﺴﺒﻃ ﺪﻣﺎﺣ
*
ﻮﺠﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻱ ﻱﺮﺘﻛﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ
ﻱ ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ
[email protected] ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :
2 / 2 / 88 ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :
28 / 10 / 89
ﻩﺪﻴﻜﭼ ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺮـﻬﺗ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﺭﺍﻮﻤﻫﺎﻧ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻑﻭﺮﺘﺳﺎﺗﺎﻛ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ﻡﺎﻬﺳ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻁﻮﻘﺳ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻲﻧﺎﻬﮔﺎﻧ ﺖﻓﺍ ﻭ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻲﻣﻮـﻤﻋ ﺖـﺸﺣﻭ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻪﻧ ﺎﻫ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺬـﮔ
ﻪﺑ ﺶﻴـﺑ ﻖـﻤﻋ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻜﻠﺑ ،ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ ﻥﺎـﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﻳﺪـﺷ ﺩﻮـﻛﺭ ﺮـﺗ
ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻲﻣ ﺐﺟﻮﻣ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﺩﻮـﺷ
. ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻳﺎـﺟ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻪـﻛ ﺢﻴـﺿﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﻻﺎـﺑ ﺕﺭﺪـﻗ ﻑﻭﺮﺘـﺳﺎﺗﺎﻛ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺎﺑ ؛ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻪﺘﺳﻮﻴﭘﺎﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻨﻳﺁﺮﻓ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻲﻧﺎﻬﮔﺎﻧ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ
ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ
ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻱﺮـﺘﻬﺑ ﺭﺎﻴـﺴﺑ ﻲﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻦﻳﺰﮕﻳﺎﺟ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ .
ﻪﻧﺎﻴﻟﺎﺳ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺖﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻱ
ﻱﺩﺪﻋ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻭ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ
ﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺮـﻬﺗ ﺭﺍﺩﺎـﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺱﺭﻮـﺑ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﺖﻓﺍ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ،ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ 1383 ﻭ 1387 ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻪـﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﻚﻴﺘـﺴﺠﻟ ﻲـﻄﺧﺮﻴﻏ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺮـﺘﻬﺑ ﺭﺎﻴـﺴﺑ ﻱﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻫﺩ . ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺩﻮﺒﻬﺑ ﻲﺘﺣ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻲﻳﺍﺩﺯﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ .
ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ :JEL G12; G14; C01; C53
ﻩژﺍﻭ ﺪﻴﻠﻛ ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ،ﻡﺎﻬﺳ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻁﻮﻘﺳ :
ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ،ﻑﻭﺮﺘـﺳﺎﺗﺎﻛ ﭗـﺳﺎﻛ ﻲﻓﺩﺎـﺼﺗ ﻝﺪـﻣ ،ﻑﻭﺮﺘﺳﺎﺗﺎﻛ ﻱ
ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ،ﻲﻧﺎﻬﮔﺎﻧ ﻱﺪﻣﻭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ
.
* - ﻩﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ ﻱ ﻝﻮﺌﺴﻣ .
1 - ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ
1ﻁﻮﻘﺳ ﻩﺮﻈﺘﻨﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻭ ﻱ
ﻪﻠﺌﺴﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺕﺎـﻌﻓﺩ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺍ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻡﻮﻠﻋ ﻥﺍﺪﻨﻤﺸﻳﺪﻧﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻭ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻥﻻﺎﻌﻓ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ .
ﺗ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲـﺻﺎﺧ ﻒـﻳﺮﻌ
ﻧ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻁﻮﻘﺳ ﺸ
ﻩﺪ ﺖﺳﺍ ، ﺍ ﺎﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻲﻠﻛ ﻩﺩﺯﺎﺑ ﻱ ﻭﺩ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻤﻗﺭ
ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺯﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺪﻨﭼ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ
ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﺖـﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻁﻮﻘﺳ ﻚﻳ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
،
ﺭﺎﻴـﺴﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﺕﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻡﺎﻬﺳ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻲﻧﺎﻬﮔﺎﻧ ﺖﻓﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻁﻮﻘﺳ ﻩﺩﺎﺳ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
. ﺮﮔﺍ ﻲـﻣ ﺥﺭ ﻲﻫﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺕﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﭼ ﺖـﺸﺣﻭ ﻪـﺑ ﺮـﺠﻨﻣ ﻭ ﺪـﻫﺩ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﻲـﻣ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺩﻮـﻛﺭ ﺖـﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺬـﮔ
ﺎـﻣﺍ ؛ﺩﻮـﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﻴـﺴﺑ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻁﻮﻘـﺳ ﻞـﻳﻻﺩ ﻲﺘـﺴﻳﺎﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﺪﻧﺭﻭﺎﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻡﻮﻠﻋ ﻥﺍﺪﻨﻤﺸﻳﺪﻧﺍ ﺭﺎﻴـﺴﺑ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻞﺒﻗ ﺩﺮﻛ ﻮﺠﺘﺴﺟ ﺮﺗ )
15 .(
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺪﻳﺪﭘ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺍﻮﺗ
ﺪﻧ ﺲﻜﻋﺮـﺑ ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﺪﻫﺩ ﺥﺭ ﻱﺩﻮﻛﺭ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ
ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻁﻮﻘﺳ ﻚﻳ ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺪﺑ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ،ﻲـﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺏﺎـﺒﺣ ﺖـﻟﺎﺣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺏﺎﺒﺣ
ﻲﻳﻼﻘﻋ ﺏﺎﺒﺣ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺪﻧﺍﻮﺧ2
ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻲﻠﻛ ﻲﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻁﻮﻘﺳ ﻪﻛ ﺖﻔﮔ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻱﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺎـﻫ
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ
ﻱ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺕﺪﻣ ﻲﻧﻻﻮﻃ ﺪـﺣ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴـﺑ ﻲـﻨﻴﺑ ﺵﻮـﺧ ﻭ ﻡﺎﻬـﺳ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ،ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺎﻫ
ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎـﻴﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺯﻭﺎـﺠﺘﻣ ﻡﺎﻬـﺳ ﺮﻫ ﺩﻮﺳ ﻪﺑ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻱ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻭ ﻥﺁ
ﺖﻛﺭﺎﺸﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻥﺁ ﻥﺎﮔﺪـﻨﻨﻛ
ﻪـﺑ ﺭﻮـﻃ ﺩﺮﺘـﺴﮔ ﻩ ﻱﺍ ؛ﺪﻨـﺷﺎﺑ ﻩﺩﺮـﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﻲﻫﺪـﺑ ﺯﺍ
ﻞﻤﺘﺤﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﺗ .
2 - ﻝﺪﻣ ﻥﺭﺎﻘﺘﻣﺎﻧ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻁﻮﻘﺳ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ
، 3
ﻩﺩﺯﺎـﺑ ﻊـﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻡﺎﻬـﺳ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻪـﺑ ﺭﻮـﻃ
ﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻩﺩﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭ
. ﺯ
4ﻦﻤﻳ ) 1974 (،
ﺖـﺤﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻁﻮﻘﺳ
ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻑﻭﺮﺘﺳﺎﺗﺎﻛ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﺖـﺴﻴﺗﺭﺎﭼ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ
5 ﺎـﻫ ﺎـﻫﺍﺮﮔﺩﺎﻴﻨﺑ ﻭ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪـﺑ6
ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺪـﻨﻛ
) 18 .(
ﺖـﺴﻴﺗﺭﺎﭼ ﺭﺎـﺘﻓﺭ ﺖـﻘﻴﻘﺣﺭﺩ ﺎـﻫ
ﻭ ﻪـﺑ ﺭﻮـﻃ ﻲـﻠﻛ
ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻜﻴﻨﻜﺗ ﻥﺍﺮﮔ ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ
ﻱ ﻪﺘﻔﺳ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﺎﺑ
ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪـﺑ ،ﺪﻨﺘـﺴﻫ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺯ
ﺏﺎﻌﺸﻧﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﻭ7
ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﻴﻨﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﮔ ﻲﻣ ﺽﺮﻓ8
ﺩﻮـﺷ . ﻝﺪـﻣ
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮـﺑ ﻲﻔﻴﺻﻮﺗ ﻉﻮﻧ ﺯﺍ ،ﻦﻤﻳﺯ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮕﻧ .
ﺲـﭘ ﺯﺍ
،ﻱﻭ
1-Crash . 2-Rational bubble.
3-Asymmetry. 4-Zeeman.
5-Chartists.
6-Fundamentalists.
7-Bifurcation variable.
8-Normal (asymmetry) variable.
ﮓﻧﺮﻤﺟ
، ﺮﺳﺍﺭ
، ﺖﻨﻛ ، ﻮﻜﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﺪﻨﺘـﺷﺍﺩ ﻩﺭﺎـﺷﺍ ﺐﻠﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ1
. ﻲﮔﺯﺎـﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﻭ ﻚـﻴﻧﻭﺭﺎﺑ
ﻭ ﺍﺩﺭﻮﺳ ﭗـﺳﺎﻛ ﻲﻓﺩﺎـﺼﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻁﻮﻘﺳ ،2
ﻪـﺑ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻲـﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺍﺭ
ﻝﺍﻭ ﻁﻮﻘﺳ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﺪﻧﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺑﺎﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻳﺮﺘـﺳﺍ
19 ﺮـﺒﺘﻛﺍ 1987 ﺪـﻨﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ .
ﻢـﺠﺣ ﻪـﺑ ﺵﻭﺮـﻓ ﺭﺎـﻴﺘﺧﺍ ﺕﻼﻣﺎـﻌﻣ ﻢـﺠﺣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﺭﺎﻴﺘﺧﺍ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﺎـﺘﻓﺭ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ3
ﻪﺘﻔـﺳ ﺭ ﻱﺯﺎـﺑ ) ﺏﺎﻌـﺸﻧﺍ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ (
ﻱﺩﺪـﻋ ﻢـﺠﺣ ﻭ
ﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮ
ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ؛ ﻁﻮﻘـﺳ ﭗـﺳﺎﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻝﺪﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺘﻬﺑ ﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺎﻴﺳ ﻪﺒﻨﺷﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻳﺮﺘﺳﺍ ﻝﺍﻭ ﻲﻣ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﻦﻳﺰﮕﻳﺎﺟ ﻱﺎﻫ
٤ﺪﻫﺩ ) 3 .(
ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻱ ﻪﻛ ﻑﻭﺮﺘﺳﺎﺗﺎﻛ ﺭﺩ
ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻱﻭﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺪـﺷ ﺡﺮـﻄﻣ ﻲﻜﻴﻣﺎـﻨﻳﺩ ﻱﺎـﻫ
، ﻪـﺑ
ﻲﻜﻴﻣﺎـﻨﻳﺩ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻲﻟﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﻁﺎﻘﻧ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ሺ୲ǡ ሻ
، ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﺭﺩ
ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ
، ﻲﻣ ﺩﺯﺍﺩﺮﭘ . ﻪﻳﻭﺭ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻜﻴﻣﺎﻨﻳﺩ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻚﻳ ﻲﻟﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
ﻪـﺑ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ
ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ﺖﺷﻮﻧ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻞﻴﺴﻧﺍﺮﻔﻳﺩ :
) 1 பிሺ௫ப௫ǡഀሻ (
ൌ Ͳ
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ݔ௧
ﺘﻣ ﻭ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺮﻴﻐ
ﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻢ
ﺷﺎﺑ
٥ﺪ .
ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺷﺎﻧ ﻑﻭﺮﺘـﺳﺎﺗﺎﻛ ﻪﭼ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻱ
ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﻚـﻳ ﻞﻴـﺴﻧﺍﺮﻔﻳﺩ ﺕﻻﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﻲـﻔﻴﻛ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﻧﺎﺸﻧ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺕﺎﻗﻭﺍ ﻲﻫﺎﮔ ﺎﻣﺍ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲـﻣ ﺯﻭﺮـﺑ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ
ﻥﻭﺪـﺑ ﻲـﺘﺣ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻫﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻦﺘﺴﻧﺍﺩ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
ﻱ ﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻥﺁ ﻲﻔﻴﻛ ﺖﺧ
. ﺮﭘ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺳﻮﻴﭘ ﺮﻴﻏ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻨﻳﺍﺮﻓ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻑﻭﺮﺘﺳﺎﺗﺎﻛ ﻉﻮﻧ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ .
ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺪﻣﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻲﺑﺎﻴﺘـﺳﺩ ﻡﺪـﻋ ،ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ6
ﻲﻧﺎـﻬﮔﺎﻧ ﺵﺮـﭘ ،7
ﻲـﻳﺍﺮﮔﺍﻭ ،8
ﺲﻧﺎـﻳﺭﺍﻭ ،9
ﻱﺩﺎﻋﺮﻴﻏ ﻲﮔﺪﻨﺒﺴﭼ ﻭ10
) ﺲﭘ ﺪﻧﺎﻣ
11( ﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺭﺎﺷﺍ .
ﺲﭘ ﺪـﻨﻳﺍﺮﻓ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ ﺪﻧﺎﻣ
ﻞﺒﻗﺎﻣ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺸﮔﺯﺎﺑ ﻪﺑ
ﺮﺳ ﺖﻋ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺖﺴﻴﻧ ﺮﻳﺬﭘ .
ﻢﻤﻴـﻨﻴﻣ ﻚـﻳ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻬﺟ ﺖﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺭﺩ
ﻪﺑ ﻪﻄﻘﻧ ﻱ ﻲـﻤﻧ ﻕﺎـﻔﺗﺍ ﻝﺮـﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﺕﺎﺼﺘﺨﻣ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻢﻤﻴﻨﻴﻣ ﺪـﺘﻓﺍ
.
ﻩﺪﻳﺪﭘ ﻱ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻫﺎـﺸﻣ ﻞـﺑﺎﻗ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻭ ﻲـﻜﻳﺰﻴﻓ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻨﻳﺍﺮﻓ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﮔﺪﻨﺒﺴﭼ
1- Jammerneg,Rosser, Kenneth, Balasko.
2- Barunik and Vosvrda.
3-Put/Call option open interest ratio.
4 - ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻁﻮﻘﺳ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺹﻮﺼﺧ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺖﻬﺟ )
4 ( ، ) 6 ( ، ) 8 ( ، ) 10 ( ، ) 11 ( ﻭ ) 15 ( ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﻌﺟﺍﺮﻣ .
5 - ﻊﻳﺎﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻑﻭﺮﺘﺳﺎﺗﺎﻛ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻳﺎﻨﺷﺁ ﺖﻬﺟ )
1 ( ، ) 2 ( ﻭ ) 7 ( ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﻌﺟﺍﺮﻣ . 6-Multimodal.
7-Inaccessibility.
8-Sudden jump.
9-Divergence.
10-Anomalous variance.
11-Hysteresis.
ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻱ
ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ـﺗ ﺯﺮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﺎﻬﮔﺎﻧ ﺶﻬﺟ ﻪﻛ ﺄ
1ﺮﻴﺧ ﻲـﻣ ﺥﺭ ـﻫﺩ ﺪ ) 7 .(
ﻞﻜـﺷ
) 1 (،
ﺪﻟﻮﻔﻴﻨﻣ ﺗ2
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻞﻴﺴﻧﺎﺘﭘ ﻊﺑﺎ ﺪﻫﺩ
.
ﻊﺟﺮﻣ : ،ﻲﻧﺎﺑﺮﻗ 1385 ، ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻱ ﻭ ﻪﻌﺟﺎﻓ ﻪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﺩﺮﺑﺭﺎﻛ ﻱ
ﺭﺎﻨﻴﻤﺳ ﻦﻴﻤﺘﻔﻫ ،ﺏﻮﺳﺭ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺭﺫ ﺖﻛﺮﺣ
ﻦﻴﺑ ﺯﺍﻮﻫﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻤﭼ ﺪﻴﻬﺷ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ،ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﻲﺳﺪﻨﻬﻣ ﻲﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ
ﻞﻜﺷ 1 - ﺎﻛ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺪﻟﻮﻔﻴﻨﻣ ،ﻑﻭﺮﺘﺳﺎﺗ
،ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣZ
܊ ﻭ ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ
ࢇ ،ﺏﺎﻌﺸﻧﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ۴ሺܠǢ ܋ሻ
ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻞﻴﺴﻧﺎﺘﭘ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ
2 - 1 - ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ
ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻲﻌﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺪﻣﺪﻨﭼ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﺁ
ﺎـﻫ ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ
ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻁﻮﻘﺳ ﻪﺑ
ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺘﺳﻮﻴﭘﺎﻧ ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﻪﻧﻮﮔﺮﻫ ﻲﻠﻛ ﺩﺮـﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺍ
. ﻮﻘـﺳ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﻁ
ﻲﻣ ﺥﺭ ﻲﻣﺎﮕﻨﻫ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﺑ ﻪ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ
،ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻲﻧﻭﺭﺩ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﻲﻧﻭﺮﻴﺑ ﻚـﻳ ﺯﺍ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺗ
ﻲﻣ ﻞﻘﺘﻨﻣ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺪﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻣ
ﺩﻮﺷ . ﺏﺎﻛ ﻥﺭﻮﻟ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ،3
ﺯﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻑﻭﺮﺘـﺳﺎﺗﺎﻛ ﻊـﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﺎـﺑ ﻖﺑﺎﻄﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﻤﻧ ﻱﺪﻣ ﺪﻨﭼ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺪﻧﺍﺩ . ﻪـﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺮﻇﺎﻨﺘﻣ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﺖﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺭﺩ
ﻣ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﻝﺪ ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻑﻭﺮﺘﺳﺎﺗﺎﻛ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ،4
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﻉﻮﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﻤﻧ ﻱﺪﻣﻭﺩ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻚﻳ .
ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻑﻭﺮﺘﺳﺎﺗﺎﻛ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ
ﻚﻳ ﺖﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺶﻨﻛﺍﺮﭘ ﺪﻨﻳﺍﺮﻓ
ﺖﺳﺍ5
ﻪـﺑ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ
ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ) 2 ( ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ
،ﺩﻮﺷ
1-Delay convention.
2-Manifold.
3-Loren Cobb.
4-Stochastic cusp catastrophe.
5-Diffusion process.
) 2
ൌρሺǡǢɅሻɐሺǡǢɅሻ (
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ρ
ﺶﻧﺍﺭ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ،1
ɐ ﺳﻮﻧ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ
2ﻥﺎ
୲ ﻭ ﺖﻛﺮﺣ ﻚﻳ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘـﺳﺍ ﻲـﻧﻭﺍﺮﺑ
) ﺪـﻨﻳﺍﺮﻓ
3ﺮﻨﻳﻭ ( ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻑﻭﺮﺘﺳﺎﺗﺎﻛ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﻄﻗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ،ﺖﻔﻳﺭﺩ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺖﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻣ
ﺑ ﺪﺷﺎ .
ߤ ﻲـﻨﻌﻳ ﻝﺮـﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎﺗ
୲
ﻲـﻨﻌﻳ ﺖﻴﻌـﺿﻭ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ، ݔ௧
ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻭ
ﻢﻴﻈﻨﺗ ) ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻣ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻭ ﻊﺿﻮﻣ ﺮﺘﻣﺭﺎﭘ (
ﺎـﺑ ﻪـﻛ Ʌ ﻳﺎـﻤﻧ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺶ .
ﻱﺎﻫﺪـﻨﻳﺁﺮﻓ
ﻲﻌﻄﻗ ءﺰﺟ ﻭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺶﻨﻛﺍﺮﭘ ሺρሻ
ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻭ ሺɐሻ
ﻩﺪﺷ ﻞﻴﻜﺸﺗ ﻮـﺘﻳﺍ ﻢﻟ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ،ﺪﻧﺍ
4
ﭻﻳﻮﻨﺗﺍﺮﺘﺳﺍ ﻢﻟ ﻭ ﻲﻣ ﻞﻳﺪﺒﺗ ﺮﻇﺎﻨﺘﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﮕﭼ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻪﺑ5
ﺪﻧﻮﺷ . ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﺏﺎﻛ ﻥﺭﻮﻟ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ
ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻪﺘﺳﺩ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ،ﻑﻭﺮﺘﺳﺎﺗﺎﻛ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﮕﭼ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻲﻟﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﻱﺪﻣﻭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ
ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻥﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻥﺁ ɐሺሻ ൌ ͳ
. ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻪﻃﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ
ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﺖﺳﺭﺩ ﺎﻤﻧ ﻩﺩﺯ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻲﻳ ﻲﻣ
ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻲﺒﻧﺎﺠﻣ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ ﻩﺪـﻨﻧﺯ
ﻞـﺻﺎﺣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ )
10 - 7 .(
ﺑ ﺏﺎﻛ ﻥﺭﻮﻟ ﻪ
ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻑﻭﺮﺘﺳﺎﺗﺎﻛ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ
) ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ (،
ﻓ ﺶﻧﺍﺭ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻕﻮ
ﻪﺑ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻱ
) 3 (
،ﺩﺮﻛ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ
) 3 ρሺǡǢɅሻൌȽሺሻȾሺሻ൫Ǧɉ൯ǦɀሺǦɉሻ͵ (
ﻲـﻨﻌﻳ ﺩﻮـﺷ ﺽﺮـﻓ ﻲﺘﺑﺎﺛ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﺎﺑ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻥﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻪﻛ ﻲﺗﺭﻮﺻ ﺭﺩ ɐሺ୲ǡ ୲Ǣ Ʌሻ ൌ ߫
ﻪـﻛ
ﺯﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﻤﻧ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﻉﻮﻧ
߫ ൌ ͳ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻨﻛﺍﺮـﭘ ﺪـﻨﻳﺍﺮﻓ ﺎـﺑ ﺮﻇﺎـﻨﺘﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﮕﭼ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
ﻮﺘﻳﺍ ﻢﻟ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ،ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﺶﻧﺍﺭ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻪﺑ
ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻱ
) 4 (
،ﺖﺳﺍ
) 4
ሺȁǢɅሻൌ ቈԄͳሺሻ ቀǦɉɓቁ ԄʹʹሺሻቀǦɉɓቁʹǦͳͶቀǦɉɓቁͶǦɄ (
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ߣ
،ﻊـﺿﻮﻣ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎـﭘ
߭ ﻭ ﺱﺎـﻴﻘﻣ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎـﭘ Ʉ
ﻝﺎـﻣﺮﻧ ﺖـﺑﺎﺛ ﻲـﻣ ﻩﺪـﻨﻨﻛ
ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ
،
ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻱ ﻪﻛ
மభሺሻ
ணమ ൌ ʹȽሺሻɓ ɑΤ ଶ Ԅଶሺሻ ൌ ʹȾሺሻɓଶΤɑଶ ،
ɓ ൌ ሾɑଶΤ ሿʹɀ ଵ ସΤ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ
.
،ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻣ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻪﻛ ﻲﺗﺭﻮﺻﺭﺩ
߭ ﻩﺮـﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ،ﺮﻈﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﮕﭼ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻢﻫﺯﺎﺑ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺒﻧ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺰﻴﻧ ، ﻱ
ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻛ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻲﻳﺎﻤﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱﺩﺎـﻴﻨﺑ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎﺗ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻪ
ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ،ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ
) ( ﺖﺳﺍ ، .
ﻲﻳﺎﻤﻧ ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﻲﻟﺎﮕﭼ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ
ﻱ ) 4 ( ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻱﺪﻣﻭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺘﺑﺎﺛ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﺍﺭ ﺪﻨﻛ
. ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛﺍﺪﺟ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱ
ﻥﺩﺭﺎﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻑﻭﺮـﻌﻣ6
ﻪـﺑ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ
ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ) 5 ( ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ
،ﺩﻮﺷ
1-Drift function.
2-Volatility function.
3-Wiener process.
4-Ito lemma.
5-Stratonovich lemma.
6-Carden's discriminant.
) 5 ( δሺǢɅሻؠԄͳʹͶሺሻǦԄʹʹ͵ሺሻൌɑ͵ඥʹɀͳ ቂȽʹሺሻǦͶȾʹɀ͵ሺሻቃ
ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛﺍﺪﺟ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﮕﭼ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻱﺪﻣ ﻚﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻡﺯﻻ ﻭ ﻲﻓﺎﻛ ﻁﺮﺷ ﻱ
،ﻥﺩﺭﺎـﻛ
δሺǢ Ʌሻ Ͳ ﻁﺮﺷ ﻭ ،
ɁେሺǢ Ʌሻ ൏ Ͳ ቀȽଶሺሻ ൏ଶସ Ⱦଷሺሻ ɀൗ ቁ ،
ﻲﻓﺎـﻛ ﻭ ﻡﺯﻻ ﻁﺮﺷ ،
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻱﺪﻣﻭﺩ .
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ Ԅଵ
Ԅଶ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ﻭ ﻉﺎـﻔﺗﺭﺍ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﺐـﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪـﺑ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﺮﮕﻳﺪﻜﻳ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻲﻳﺍﺪﺟ ﺪـﻨﻫﺩ
. ﻊـﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﺪـﻣ ﻲـﺘﻧﺁ ﻭ ﺎﻫﺪـﻣ ﺖـﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺭﺩ
ﻪﺑ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ
ﻱ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﻲـﻣ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺍﺪﻳﺎﭘﺎﻧ ﻭ ﺭﺍﺪﻳﺎﭘ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺪﻨـﺷﺎﺑ
. ﻪـﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ) 5 (
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺩﺭﺎﻛ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻞﻜﺷ .
ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ δሺǢ Ʌሻ ൌ Ͳ ﺏﺎﻌﺸﻧﺍ ﺯﺮﻣ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ
ﺭﺩ ﻚـﭼﻮﻛ ﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ 1
ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﻴﻨﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ )
ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ (
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮـﺷ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﻁﻮﻘـﺳ ﻪـﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ .
ﻞﻜـﺷ
) 2 (،
ﺍﺭ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﮕﭼ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻲﺣﺍﻮﻧ ﺭﺩ
ﻪﺤﻔﺻ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﺪـﻫﺩ
. ﻥﺎـﻤﻫ ﺭﻮـﻃ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﺭﺩ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺍﺪﻴﭘ ﻱﺪﻣﻭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﺏﺎﻌﺸﻧﺍ ﺯﺮﻣ
ﺪﻨﻛ .
Reference: Grasman, 2008, Fitting the cusp catastrophe in R: A cusp-package primer, Journal of Behavior Research Method
ﻞﻜﺷ 2 - ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻲﺣﺍﻮﻧ ﺭﺩ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﮕﭼ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻪﺤﻔﺻ
ﻱ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ
1-Bifurcation set.
ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺎـﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻦﻴـﻤﺨﺗ
ﻪـﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻑﻭﺮﺘـﺳﺎﺗﺎﻛ ﭗـﺳﺎﻛ ﻲﻓﺩﺎـﺼﺗ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻱ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﭗﺳﺎﻛ
1ﺖﻴﻓ ﻢﺟ ﻭ ﺖﻛ
2ﻮﺗ ﻪﺘﺴﺑ ﻭ ﻱ
3ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻡﺮـﻧ ﺭﺁ ﺭﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻲـﻣ4
ﺖـﺴﺟ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ
، ﺯﺍ ﺎـﻣﺍ
ﻥﺁ ﺎﺟ ﻳ ﻲ ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻪﻛ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﺭﺁ ﻭ ﺖﻴﻓ ﺖﺳﺭﺩ
ﺎـﻤﻧ ﻦﻴـﻤﺨﺗ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲﻳ
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ؛ﺪﻨﻛ
ﻭ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻦﻴـﻤﺨﺗ ﺖـﻬﺟ ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎـﻛ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﺘﺴﺑ ﻭ ﺖﻴﻓ
ﻱ ﻡﺮﻧ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ،ﺭﺁ ﺭﺍﺰﻓﺍ
ﻪـﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ) 4 ( ﺍﺭ
ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺖﺳﺭﺩ
ﺎﻤﻧ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻲﻳ ﻲﻣ
ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻨﻧﺯ Ƚሺሻ
ﻭ
Ⱦሺሻ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻲﻣ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺮﻳﺯ
،ﺪﻧﻮﺷ
) 6 ȽൌͲͳͳʹʹǥ (
) 7 ( β<a/*a0y0*a1y1*╖ *amym
ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺩﻮﺷ
Ƚ) Ⱦ ﻭ ( ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻄﺧ ﻲﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ
ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﺘﺴﻫ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨ ﻥﺁ
ﺎﻫ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻭﺩ ﺮـﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ .
ﻪـﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ـﺑ
ﻪ ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ
ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﻱ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻞـﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ ﺎـﺑ ﭗـﺳﺎﻛ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻞـﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ،ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ
ﻚﻴﺘﺴﺠﻟ ﻲﻄﺧﺮﻴﻏ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ5
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ . ﻚﻴﺘﺴﺠﻟ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻪـﺑ
ﻪـﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻱ
) 8 (
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ .
) 8
ൌɓͳɉȽ (
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ :
) 9 ( α<`/*`0y0*`1y1*╖ *`mym
) 10
ൌǦɉɓ (
ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻥﺁ ﺎﻫ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻭﺩ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ
݊ ൌ ʹ) .(
ﻪـﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱ
ﻝﺪـﻣ
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺯﺭﺍﻮﺷ ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﻚﻴﺋﺎﻛﺁ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻚﻴﺘﺴﺠﻟ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﺑ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ﻲﻟﺪـﻣ ﺖـﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺭﺩ
ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﻚﻴﺋﺎﻛﺁ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﺗ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺭﺍﻮﺷ
ﻢﻛ ﺮـﺗ ﺪـﻨﻛ ﺭﺎـﻴﺘﺧﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻱ .
ﻝﺪـﻣR2
ﻪﺒﺷ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻪﺑR2
ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ) 11 ( ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ .
) 11
ǦʹൌͳǦﺲﻧﺎﻳﺭﺍﻭ ﺎﻄﺧ (
ሺሻﺲﻧﺎﻳﺭﺍﻭ
1-Cuspfit.
2-GEMCAT II.
3-Cusp-package.
4-R program .
5-Logistic growth model.
3 - ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻭ ﺎﻫ
3 - 1 - ﻭ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻪﻌﻣﺎﺟ
ﻱ ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ
ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ
ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻱ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻑﻭﺮﺘﺳﺎﺗﺎﻛ ﻥﺁ
ﺎﻫ ﺐـﺟﻮﻣ
ﻲﻣ ﻲﻜﻴﻣﺎﻨﻳﺩ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ﺮﮔﺍ ﻪﭼ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺱﺭﻮـﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﻁﺎـﻘﻧ ﻲﮕﻳﺎﺴﻤﻫ
ﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺐﺒﺳ
ﻲﻣ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﺎﻬﮔﺎﻧ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺩﻮﺷ
، ﺎﻣﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻚـﭼﻮﻛ ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻝﻮﻤﻌﻣ
ﻐﺘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻛﺪﻧﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺮﻴ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﻨﻛ
ﺪ . ﻭ ﻝﺮـﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ
ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻥﺁ ﺎﻫ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﻑﻭﺮﺘﺳﺎﺗﺎﻛ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ .
ﻝﺮـﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ،ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺭﺍﻮﻤﻫﺮﻴﻏ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻨﻳﺁﺮﻓ ﻦﻴﻴﺒﺗ ﺖﻬﺟ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ ﻪﺘﺳﺩ ﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ
. ﻪـﺑ ﻁﻮـﺑﺮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪﺘـﺳﺩ
ﻱ ﻥﺁ ،ﻝﻭﺍ ﺎـﻫ ﻪـﻛ ﺪﻨﺘـﺴﻫ ﻲﻳ
ﺑ ﻪ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻲﻋﻮﻧ ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﻩﺩﻮﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺍﻭ ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ
ﺐﺒﺳ ﻪـﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ
ﻱ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻲﺗﺍﺫ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫ ﻥﺁ
ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ . ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪﺘﺳﺩ
ﻱ ﻥﺁ ﻡﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺪﻨﺘـﺴﻫ ﻲﻳﺎـﻫ
ﻱﺎﻫﺯﻭﺭ ﻲﻣ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﺍﺭ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ،ﺰﻴﻧ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﻋ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
.
ﻪﻧﺍﺯﻭﺭ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻱ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ
ﺪـﻨﻧﺎﻤﺑ ،ﻥﺍﺮـﻬﺗ ﺭﺍﺩﺎـﻬﺑ
ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﺎﻫ
ﺎﻴﻧﺩ ﻱ
، ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻁﻮﻘﺳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻼﺜﻣ ﺎﻫ
10 ﺯﻭﺭ ﻚـﻳ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻱﺪﺻﺭﺩ
ﺩﺮﻛ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮﺨﻧ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﺍﺭ .
ﺯﺍ ﻥﺁ ﻲﻳﺎﺟ ﻪﻛ ﻁﻮﻘـﺳ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎﻬﮔﺎﻧ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻐﺗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﺧ
ﺩﻮـﺷ ﻭﺩ ﺎـﻬﻨﺗ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻨﺑ ، ﺭ
ﻩ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺮﻴﮔ
ﻧ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴـﺑ ﺖﻓﺍ ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺘﻣ ﻩﺎﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻝﻮﻃ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﻪﻛ ﺪ 10
ﺪـﺻﺭﺩ
ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺩﻮـﺷ ﻩﺪﻫﺎـﺸﻣ
. ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ،ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺮـﺑ
ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ
،ﺩﻮﺷ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻱ
ﺮﻴﺗ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ
1382 ﺪﻨﻔﺳﺍ ﺎﺗ 1386
ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ
ﻂـﺳﺍﻭﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻲﻧﺎﻬﮔﺎﻧ ﻁﻮﻘﺳ ﺪﻫﺎﺷ
ﻝﺎﺳ 1383 ﺘﺴﻫ ﻢﻴ . ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﺭﺩ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻱ
ﻦﻳﺩﺭﻭﺮﻓ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ 1385
ﺪﻨﻔـﺳﺍ ﺎﺗ 1387
ﻝﺎﺳ ﻂﺳﺍﻭﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺍﺮﭼ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ 87
ﺎﺑ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻲﻧﺎﻬﮔﺎﻧ ﺖﻓﺍ ﺎﻫ
ﻪـﺟﺍﻮﻣ ـﻳﺍ ﻢ .
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﺑ
ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻧﺎﻫﺎﻣ ﺑ
ﺪﺷﺎ .
ﺎﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻢﻬﻣ
ﺮﺗ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻦﻴـﻴﺒﺗ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻪـﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻦﻳ
،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻑﻭﺮﺘﺳﺎﺗﺎﻛ ﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ
ﻱ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻲﻧﻭﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻟﺎـﻳﺭ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻭ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﻱﺩﺪﻋ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
ﻌﻣ ﻱﺩﺪﻋ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ،ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﺕﻼﻣﺎـﻌﻣ ﻲﻟﺎـﻳﺭ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ،ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺕﻼﻣﺎ
ﺕﺎـﻌﻓﺩ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﻱﺩﺪﻋ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ،ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﺕﺎﻌﻓﺩ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ،ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻪﺑ
ﺕﺎـﻌﻓﺩ ﺩﺍﺪـﻌﺗ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ،ﺕﻼﻣﺎـﻌﻣ ﺕﺎـﻌﻓﺩ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﻳﺭ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ،ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﻪـﻫﺎﻣ ﺶـﺷ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ
ﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻲـﮕﻤﻫ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﻤ
ﻪﺑ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻧﺎﻫﺎﻣ ﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺭﺎﺷﺍ ،ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ
. ﻪﻧﺎﻴﻟﺎﺳ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱ
ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ
ﻪﻫﺎﻣ ﺶﺷ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ ﻱ
ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮـﻈﻧﺭﺩ ﻥﻼـﻛ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪـﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ
ﻩﺪﺷ ﺪﻧﺍ . ﻦﻤﻳﺯ ﻖﺑﺎﻄﻣ )
1974 ( ﺖﺴﻴﺗﺭﺎﭼ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻣﺎﮕﻨﻫ ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﺎﻫ
ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻲﻠﻛ ﻲـﻜﻴﻨﻜﺗ ﻥﺍﺮﮔ
ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﺑﺎﻗ ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻞ ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺍ
ﻪﺧﺮﭼ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ ،ﺪﻧﻮﺷ
ﺯﺍ ﺎـﻫ
ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻭ ﻲﺗﺍﺫ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺎﻫ
ﺳ ﻱ ﻔ ﻱﺯﺎـﺑ ﻪﺘ ﺍﺭ1
ﻣ ﺪﻫﺎـﺸ ﻲـﻣ ﻩ ـﻨﻛ ﻢﻴ . ﻪـﺑ ﺕﺭﺎـﺒﻋ ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ
ﻲﻜﻴﻨﻜﺗ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺖﻛﺭﺎﺸﻣ ﻲﻣ ﺍﺭ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ
ﺏﺎﻌـﺸﻧﺍ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ሺሻ
ﻭ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ
ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺖﻛﺭﺎﺸﻣ ﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺩﺎﻴﻨﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﮔ
ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪ ሺܽሻ
ﺖـﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧﺭﺩ .
ﻪـﺑ ﺭﻮـﻃ ﻲـﻠﻛ
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﻮﺗ ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﻪﻛ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺮﻫ ﺩﺮﻛ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺍﺪﻴﭘ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺍﻭ
ﺖـﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ،ﺪﻨﻛ ﺎـﻫ
ﻱ
ﻪﺘﻔﺳ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻱﺯﺎﺑ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ
ﻪﻛ ﺖﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻳﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ ﺏﺎﻌﺸﻧﺍ ﺐﺟﻮﻣ
ﻱ ﻲـﻣ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﺩﻮـﺷ
. ﺎـﺑ
ﺏﺎﻌﺸﻧﺍ ﺯﺮﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻥﺪﺷ ﻚﻳﺩﺰﻧ
، ﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ،ﻝﺮـﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ
ﺩﺯ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻢﻗﺭ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺩﺎﻴﻨﺑ .
ﺏﺎﻌـﺸﻧﺍ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ،ﻑﻭﺮﺘـﺳﺎﺗﺎﻛ ﭗـﺳﺎﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ
ﺖﺴﻴﻟﺎﺘﻨﻣﺍﺪﻧﺎﻓ ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ،ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻭ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺯﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﻔﺳ ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﺎـﻫ
ﻲـﻣ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﻋ ﻱﺎﻫﺯﻭﺭ .
ﻑﺬﺣ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﻭﺍ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻦـﻜﻤﻣ ﻪـﻛ ،ﻥﺍﺮـﻬﺗ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭ
ﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﺑﺫﺎﻛ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻪ
ﻲﻳﺍﺩﺯﺪـﻧﻭﺭ ﺍﺭ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ،ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺮـﻛ2
ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﺭﺎـﺑ
ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻲﺑﺎـﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﻳﺍﺩﺯ ﻲـﻣ
ﻢﻴـﻨﻛ . ﻩﺎﮔﺪـﻳﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﻲﻳﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ
ﺍﺭ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺮﺘﻬﺑ ﻭ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻪﻴﺟﻮﺗ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻪﺑ
ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ
،ﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻨﻛ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻝﺮـﺘ
ﻝﺪﻣ ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﻧﻮﺷ . ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﻋ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ،ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻭﺩ ﺮﻫ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻥﺎﻳﺎﭘ ﺭﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ،ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﻳﺍﺩﺯﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ
.
3 - 2 - ﻭﺩ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻱﺪﻣ
ﺯﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺎﺟ ﻪﻛ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺖـﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻱﺪـﻣﻭﺩ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻲﻟﺎﮕﭼ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ
ﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻣ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻬﺟ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻁﻮﻘﺳ ﻭ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻲﻧﺎﻬﮔﺎﻧ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺪ
1-Speculative.
2-De-trend.
.00000 .00005 .00010 .00015 .00020 .00025 .00030 .00035
7000 8000 9000 10000 12000 14000 Kernel Density (Triweight, h = 1731.8)
ﻡﺮﻧ ﺭﺍﺰﻓﺍ
ﺭﺩ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ، ﻩﺯﺎﺑ
ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ 1387 - 1382 ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ
ﻞﻧﺮﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﮕﭼ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ1
ﺵﻭﺭ ﺎﻫ ﻊـﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻦﻴـﻤﺨﺗ ﻱﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘﺮﻴﻏ ﻱ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﮕﭼ .
ﻞﻜـﺷ ﺭﺍﺩﻮـﻤﻧ ﺮـﻳﺯ ﻱﺎـﻫ
، ﻲﻟﺎـﮕﭼ ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﻭ ﻡﺍﺮﮔﻮﺘـﺴﻴﻫ
ﺎﺷ ﻲﻨﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺎﻤﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧ
ﺪﻫﺩ . ﻱﺪـﻣﻭﺩ ﻪـﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻲﻧﺎﻬﮔﺎﻧ ﺖﻓﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ،ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻊـﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﺽﺮـﻓ ﻭ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺕﻭﺎـﻔﺘﻣ ﻲﻟﺪـﻣ ﺪـﻨﻣﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺎﻫ
ﻲﻤﻧ ﺮﺒﺘﻌﻣ ﻥﺍﺪﻨﭼ ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﻲﻟﺎﮕﭼ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
. ،ﻪﺘـﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻊـﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ ﻱﺪـﻣﻭﺩ ﺖﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺭﺩ
ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺍﺭ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺩ ﺪﻫ .
ﻞﻜﺷ 3 - ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ 1387
- 1382
1- Kernel density distribution estimation.
ﻞﻜﺷ 4 - ﻲﻨﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻲﻟﺎﮕﭼ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ )
ﻻﺎﺑ ﻞﻜﺷ ( ﻡﺍﺮﮔﻮﺘﺴﻴﻫ ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻭ )
ﻦﻴﺋﺎﭘ ﺖﻤﺳ (
ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ
ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻬﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﺭﺩ
1387 - 1382
3 - 3 - ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ
ﻴﺤــﺻ ﺏﺎــﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻝﺮــﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎــﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺢ
ﻢــﻬﻣ ﺮــﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘــﺳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪــﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻦﻳ ﻪــﻳﺮﻈﻧ
ﻱ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻑﻭﺮﺘﺴﺗﺎﺗﺎﻛ .
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ )
1 ( ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻪﺑ
ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪـﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻪﺘـﺳﺩ ﻪـﺳ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ،ﻱﺍ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ .
ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ،ﻦـﻤﻳﺯ ﻖﺑﺎـﻄﻣ ﻪﺘـﺳﺩ
ﻱ ﻲـﻨﻌﻳ ،ﻝﻭﺍ
ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻞﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻗﻮﻘﺣ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ
ﺪﺷ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ،ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﻱﺩﺪﻋ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻭ ﺏﺎﻌﺸﻧﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻩ
ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻧﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺩﻭﺭ
ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﻮﺒﻗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻚﻳﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻅﺎﺤﻟ ﺯﺍ ﻪﺑ
ﺖﺳﺩ ﺎـﺑ ،ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺲـﭘ ﺎـﻣﺍ ؛ﺪﻫﺩ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺖـﻴﺤﺟﺭﺍ ﻚﻴﺘـﺴﺠﻟ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺰﺗﺭﺍﻮﺷ ﻭ ﻚﻴﺋﺎﻛﺁ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ .
ﻦﻤـﺿ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﻛ R2
ﻝﺪﻣ ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ ﺰﻴﻧ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺍ
ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﻪﺘﺳﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻚﻴﺘﺴﺠﻟ ﻝﺪﻣR2 .
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 1 - ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻚﻴﺘﺴﺠﻟ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻭ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺍ
. ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ،ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻬﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱ
. ،ﻡﻮﺳ ﻭ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻒﻳﺩﺭ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ
ﻪﺑ ﻼﻣ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﻈﺣ
ﻝﺪﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺗﺮﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﻬﮔﺎﻧ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺍ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻚﻴﺘﺴﺠﻟ
ﺪﻨﻫﺩ .
ﻒﻳﺩﺭ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻚﻴﺋﺎﻛﺁ R2
ﺯﺭﺍﻮﺷ
ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻚﻴﺘﺴﺠﻟ ﻝﺪﻣ
ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ
1 ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻌﻣ ﻱﺩﺪﻋ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻭ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻞﻛ ﺕﻼﻣﺎ
ﻝﻭﺍ -
- -
-
ﻡﻭﺩ 3630 / 0 3796 / 0 72 82
2 ﻪﻧﺎﻴﻟﺎﺳ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱ
ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﻱﺩﺪﻋ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻭ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﻝﻭﺍ
7175 / 0 5691 / 0 101 117
ﻡﻭﺩ 6663 / 0 3567 / 0 72 85
3 ﻪﻫﺎﻣ ﺶﺷ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ ﻱ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ
ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﻳﺭ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻭ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺪﻳﺮﺧ
ﻝﻭﺍ 8007 / 0 2009 / 0 137 153
ﻡﻭﺩ 6137 / 0 1693 / 0 88 100
ﻪﻧﺎﻴﻟﺎﺳ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺐﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻱ
ﺕﻼﻣﺎـﻌﻣ ﻱﺩﺪـﻋ ﻢـﺠﺣ ﻭ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪـﻘﻧ
ﻪﺑ ﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻭ ﺏﺎﻌﺸﻧﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨ
ﻭ ﻪﻫﺎﻣ ﺶﺷ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ ﻱ
ﺺﺧﺎﺷ
ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺪـﻳﺮﺧ ﺩﺍﺪـﻌﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﺕﻼﻣﺎـﻌﻣ ﻲﻟﺎـﻳﺭ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻭ ﺏﺎﻌﺸﻧﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪـﺑ
ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ ،ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺰﮕﻳﺎـﺟ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺪﻫﺩ
. ﺎﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﻦﻳ
، R2 ﻢﻛ ﺮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ،ﺰﺗﺭﺍﻮﺷ ﻭ ﻚﻴﺋﺎﻛﺁ ﻦﻳ
ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﺍﺭ
ﺩﺎﻬﻨـﺸﻴﭘ ﻚﻴﺘـﺴﺠﻟ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﺮـﺗﺮﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻫﺩ .
ﻪﻳﻭﺭ ﻱ ﺑ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻲﻟﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺍﺮ
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻒﻳﺩﺭ ﻱﺎﻫﺮ 1
، ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﻪﻧﺎﻴﻟﺎـﺳ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻱ
ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﻱﺩﺪﻋ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻭ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺭﺍﺩﺎـﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺱﺭﻮـﺑ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻭ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ
ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ
ﻱ ﻝﻭﺍ ) ﻝﺎﺳ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﻱ 1386 - 1382 ( ﻞﻜـﺷ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑ )
5 ( ﻲـﻣ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ .
ﻱﻭﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺖﻴﻌﺿﻭ ﻪﺤﻔﺻ
ﻱ ﺍﻮـﻧ ﺭﺩ ﭗـﺳﺎﻛ ﻲﻟﺎـﮕﭼ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻭ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻲﺣ
ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻪﺤﻔﺻ ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ .
ﻞﻜﺷ 5 . ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻢﻛﺍﺮـﺗ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻫﺩ
ﺭﺩ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﻪﺤﻔﺻ
ﻳﺎﭘ ﻱ ﻪﻳﻭﺭ ﻦﻴ ﻱ ﭗـﺳﺎﻛ ﺶﻴـﺑ ﺮـﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻪﺤﻔـﺻ ﻱ ﺖـﺳﻻﺎﺑ . ﻥﺎـﻤﻫ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪـﻛ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻪﺤﻔﺻ ﻱ ﻪـﺑ ﺖـﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻩﺪﻴـﺳﺭ ﺏﺎﻌـﺸﻧﺍ ﺯﺮﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ،ﻻﺎﺑ
ﻪﺤﻔﺻ ﻱ ﺎﭘ ﻳ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻬﺟ ﻦﻴ ﺪﻨﻛ
. ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﺎـﻣﺯ ﺕﺪـﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺱﺭﻮـﺑ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺪﻳﺪﺷ ﺖﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻫﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﺎﻫ
ﺩﻮﺷ . ﺏﺎﻌـﺸﻧﺍ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪـﻛ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ﺮﻫ ሺβሻ
گﺭﺰﺑ ﺩﺪﻋ ﺕﺪـﺷ ﺎـﺑ ﻁﻮﻘـﺳ ﻝﺎـﻤﺘﺣﺍ ،ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﺯﺮﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺪﺷ ﻚﻳﺩﺰﻧ ﺎﺑ ،ﺪﻨﻛ ﺭﺎﻴﺘﺧﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺮﺗ
ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ، ﺪﺑﺎﻳ
. ﺎﻌـﺸﻧﺍ ﻭ ﻝﺎـﻣﺮﻧ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﮕﭼ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﺏ
ﺪﻣ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ )
ﺖﺳﺍﺭ ﻪﺑ ﭗﭼ ﺖﻤﺳ ﺯﺍ (
ﺖـﺒﺜﻣ ﺏﺎﻌﺸﻧﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ
ﻼﻣﺎﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﺷﻭﺭ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ .
ﺯﺍ ﻥﺁ ﻲﻳﺎﺟ ﻪﻛ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﺑR2
ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺮـﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻜﻤﻣ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻪـﺑ
ﻞـﻴﻟﺩ
ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻲﻳﺍﺩﺯﺪـﻧﻭﺭ ﺍﺭ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ،ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻭ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺮـﻛ1
ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻲﻧﺎﻬﮔﺎﻧ ﺖﻓﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ
ﻢﻴﻫﺩ .
1- De-trend.
ﻞﻜﺷ 5 - ﻪﺤﻔﺻ ﻱ ﻪﻳﻭﺭ ﻭ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﮕﭼ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ،ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻱ
ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻲﻟﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﺪﺷﺭ
ﻪﻧﺎﻴﻟﺎﺳ ﻱ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﻱﺩﺪﻋ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻭ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻭ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ
ﺑ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻦﻴ ﺎﻫ ﻱ 1386 - 1382 ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ .
ﻪـﺑ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻭ ﻞﻘﺘـﺴﻣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻄﺧ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺍﺮـﻬﺗ ﺭﺍﺩﺎـﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺱﺭﻮـﺑ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ،ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ
ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻳﺍﺩﺯ ﻢﻴﻨﻛ
. ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ،ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻝﻼﺧﺍ ءﺍﺰﺟﺍ ﺖﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﻳﺍﺩﺯ
ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻥﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﻭﺩﺯ .
ﻪﺑ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻲﻣ ﻲﺿﺎﻳﺭ
،ﺖﺷﻮﻧ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
) 12 ( x<αො*β) S*ε
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ݕ
،ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ
ﻭ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ Ƚෝǡ Ⱦ
ﻭ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ɂ
ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﻳﺍﺩﺯ
ﺎﺑ ﺪﺷ .
ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﻳﺍﺩﺯ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ
ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺖـﻟﺎﺣ ﻲـﻣ
،ﻢﻳﺮـﻴﮔ
ﻪﺑ ﺎﺟ ﻱ ﻪﻫﺎﻣ ﺶﺷ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ ﻱ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺏﺎﻌﺸﻧﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ
ﻑﺍﺮـﺤﻧﺍ ﺯﺍ
ﻪﻫﺎﻣ ﺶﺷ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻱ
ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻲﻳﺍﺩﺯ
ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﻣ
ﻢﻴﻨﻛ . ﻝﺮـﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ
ﻲﻣ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ
. ﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺪـﻧﻭﺭ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺩﺪﺠﻣ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻ ﻪـﺑ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻲـﻳﺍﺩﺯ
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺡﺮﺷ ﻪﺑ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ )
2 ( ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ .
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 2 - ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻚﻴﺘﺴﺠﻟ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻭ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺍ
. ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻳﺍﺩﺯ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ،ﺖﻟﺎﺣ
ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱ ﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ
ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ .
ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻪﺑ
ﻮﻃ ﺭ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ
ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺗﺮﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﻬﮔﺎﻧ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻦﻳﺰﮕﻳﺎﺟ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﻨﻫﺩ .
ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ
ﻚﻴﺋﺎﻛﺁ R2 ﺯﺭﺍﻮﺷ
ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻚﻴﺘﺴﺠﻟ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ
ﻚﻴﺘﺴﺠﻟ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ
ﻚﻴﺘﺴﺠﻟ
ﻪﻧﺎﻴﻟﺎﺳ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱ
ﻢﺠﺣ ﻭ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﻱﺩﺪﻋ ﻝﻭﺍ
7930 / 0 6226 / 0 93 932 106 944
ﻡﻭﺩ 6907 / 0 3676 / 0 74 550 81
557
ﻪﻫﺎﻣ ﺶﺷ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ ﻱ
ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﻳﺍﺩﺯ
ﻱ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ
ﻲﻟﺎﻳﺭ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻭ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﻝﻭﺍ
8053 / 0 2257 / 0 131 971 145 983
ﻡﻭﺩ 3070 / 0 1875 / 0 91 570 98
577
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ) 2 ( ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻪﺑ ﺖـﺳﺩ ـﻣﺁ ﻪـﻛ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ ﻲـﻨﻌﻳ ،ﻡﻭﺩ ﺖـﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪ
ﻲﻣ ﻲﻳﺍﺩﺯ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺍﺭ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺪﻧ ﻲﻧﺍﺪﻨﭼ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ،ﻢﻴﻨﻛ
. ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ
ﻪﻧﺎﻴﻟﺎﺳ ﻱ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻭﺩ ﺮـﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺮـﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﻱﺩﺪﻋ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻭ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺩﻮﺒﻬﺑ .
ﻝﺎـﺣ ﻦﻴـﻋ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺯﺭﺍﻮﺷ ﻭ ﻚﻴﺋﺎﻛﺁ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ R2
ﻲﻣ ﺍﺪﻴﭘ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﻭ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻡﺎﻜﺤﺘﺳﺍ ﺐﻠﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻛ
ﻲﻣ ﻮﮔﺯﺎﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺮﻛﺫ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻲﻄﺧﺮﻴﻏ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻨﻳﺍﺮﻓ ﺪﻨﻛ
. ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺭﺩ
ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺶﺷ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ
ﻪﻫﺎﻣ ﻱ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻲﻟﺎـﻳﺭ ﻢـﺠﺣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﻳﺍﺩﺯ
ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﻪﺑ
ﻲﻣ ،ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﺮﻛ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
، ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ
ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺩﻮـﺒﻬﺑ ﻱﺩﻭﺪـﺣ ﺎﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺯﺭﺍﻮﺷ ﻭ ﻚﻴﺋﺎﻛﺁ ﻭ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺪﻧ ﻝﻭﺍ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻩﺯﺎﺑ
ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ 1387 - 1385 ،ﺯﺭﺍﻮـﺷ ﻭ ﻚـﻴﺋﺎﻛﺁ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺎﺑ ،
ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻱﺩﻭﺪﺣﺎﺗ ﻝﺪﻣR2 ﺎـﻣﺍ ،
ﻪـﺑ ﺭﻮـﻃ ﻪـﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻞـﺑﺎﻗ ﺍ
ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺯﺍ ﭗـﺳﺎﻛ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻱ
ﺍﺭ ﻱﺮﺘﻬﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻚﻴﺘﺴﺠﻟ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻞﻜﺷ 6 . ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻪﺤﻔـﺻ ﻱ ،ﻻﺎـﺑ
ﻩﺪﻴﺳﺭ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﺯﺮﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ
ﻪﺑ ﺖﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻪﺤﻔﺻ
ﻱ ﻲـﻣ ﺶﻬﺟ ﻦﻴﺋﺎﭘ ﺪـﻨﻛ
.
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺪﻳﺪﺷ ﺖﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻫﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺕﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ
.
ﻞﻜﺷ 6 - ﻪﻳﻭﺭ ﻱ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﭗﺳﺎﻛ ﻲﻟﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﺶﺷ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ
ﻪﻫﺎﻣ ﻱ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ
ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﻳﺭ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﻳﺍﺩﺯ ﻭ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ
ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﻳﺍﺩﺯ
ﻱ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﺎﻫ
ﻱ 1387 - 1385 ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ
