ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺮﺛﺍ
ﺪﻴﺳ ﻲﻳﺎﻔﻛ ﻲﻠﻋﺪﻤﺤﻣ
*
ﺭﺎﻳﺩﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻱ ﻲﺘﺸﻬﺑ ﺪﻴﻬﺷ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻲﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻡﻮﻠﻋ
m-kafaie@sbu.ac.ir ﺏﺮﻋ ﺩﺍﻮﺟ ﻱﺪﻤﺤﻣﺭﺎﻳ
ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺮﺘﻛﺩ ﻱﻮﺠﺸﻧﺍﺩ
javad.yarmohamadi@hotmail.com
ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :
22 / 3 / 89 ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :
2 / 4 / 91
ﻩﺪﻴﻜﭼ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ،ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﺛﺍ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺎﻄﺧ ﺢﻴﺤﺼﺗ .
ﻥﺎﻨﭼ ﻪﭼ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ
، ﻪـﺑ ﻲـﺗﺁ ﻱﺎﻫﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻞﻳﺪـﺒﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ
ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪـﺤﻣ ﺕﺪﺷ ﺯﺍ ،ﺪﻫﺩ ﺵﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺭﺎﺟ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺪـﺷ ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻪﺘـﺳﺎﻛ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪـﻘﻧ
. ﻚـﻳ ﺍﺪـﺘﺑﺍ
ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻚﻴﻨﻜﺗ ﻚﻤﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ
، ﻪﻔﻟﺆﻣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺶﺷ ﺐﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﻭ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
، ﻒـﻳﺮﻌﺗ
ﻩﺪﺷ ﻭ ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺲﭙﺳ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ
ﻱ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ،ﺎﻄﺧ ﺢﻴﺤﺼﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺮـﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪـﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪـﺤﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ
ﻪـﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺮﮕﻳﺪـﻜﻳ ﺎـﺑ ﻭ ﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﻮﺷ ﺩ . ﺩﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻛﺎﺣ ،ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ
ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ .
ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ : JEL C22, E44, E21
ﺪﻴﻠﻛ ﻩژﺍﻭ ،ﻑﺮﺼﻣ:
ﻲﻤﻳﺍﺩ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ،
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ ﻪﻔﻟﺆﻣ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ، ﺎﻄﺧ ﺢﻴﺤﺼﺗ ،ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
.
* - ﻩﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ ﻱ ﻝﻮﺌﺴﻣ
1 - ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻭ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ،ﻲﻠﻛ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ
ﺖ ﻲـﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻭﺩ ﻪـﺑ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ
ﻭ ﻲــﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﻲﻤــﺳﺍ
ﻢﻴــﺴﻘﺗ ﺮــﻛ ﺩ . ،ﻑﺮــﺼﻣ ﻥﻮــﭼ ﻲﻳﺎــﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ،ﺩﺎــﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲــﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺶــﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻲﻣ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﻭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ،ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻝﺎﺣ ؛ﺪﻧﻮﺷ
ﻥﺁ ﻪﻛ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻲﻤﺳﺍ ﻞـﻤﻜﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ
ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺶﺨﺑ
، ﻩﺪﻧﺮﻴﮔﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻱ
ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ،ﻝﻮـﭘ ﻱﺎـﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺍﺬﻟ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ
ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻬﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪﺘﺳﺩ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ
ﻮﺷ ﺩ .
ﺶﻟﺎﭼ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻭﺭ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺎﻧﺍﺩﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﺎﻫ ،ﻪﺘﺷﺬﮔ ﻱ ﻲﮕﻧﻮـﮕﭼ
ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻁﺎـﺒﺗﺭﺍ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ .
ﺮﺘﻴﭙﻣﻮﺷ ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ
، ﻪﻄـﺳﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻱﺮـﮔ
ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ
ﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻪ ﻭ ﺪﻘﺘﻌﻣ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺳﺍ
ﻲﻤ ﺩﻮﺑ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩ
،
ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﺯﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻱﺩﺪﻌﺘﻣ ﻞﻳﻻﺩ
ﻭ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺶﻘﻧ ﺯﺍ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ
ﺮـﺑ ﻥﺁ ﺶـﺨﺑ
ﺪﻴﺷﻮﭘ ﻢﺸﭼ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﻩ
ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﺛﺍ ﺮﻜﻨﻣ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﺪﺷ
ﻩ ﺪـﻧﺍ .
ﻭ ﺖـﻴﻤﻫﺍ ،ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺖﻓﺮﺸﻴﭘ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻣﺍ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ
ﺮـﺑ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻡﺎـﻈﻧ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ
ﻱ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ
ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺄﺗ
ﺮﻴﺛ ﺪﻠﮔ ﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺖﻴﻤﺷﺍ )١
1969 ( ﻚﻣ ، ﻥﻮﻨﻴﻛ )٢
1973 ( ﻭﺎﺷ ﻭ )٣
1973 ( ﺕﺎﺒﺛﺍ ﻪﺑ
ﺪﻴﺳﺭ . ﺪﻨﭼ ﺮﻫ ﻢﻫ ﻥﺎﻨﭼ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺖﻴﻠﻋ ﺖﻬﺟ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ
ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺎﻣﺍ ،ﺪﻨﺑﺎﻳ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻱ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻱﺮﻣﺍ ﻚﻨﻳﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻩﺩﻮﺑ
ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻪﻧ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ
ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻛ
ﻝﺎﻧﺎ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻲﻤﺳﺍ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺮﺑ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﺧﺎﻨﺷ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺩﺎﻘﺘﻋﺍ ﻪﻜﻠﺑ ،ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ ﻩﺍﺭ
ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻱﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﻪـﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﻲﻓﺮﺼﻣ ﺕﺎﻤﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻭ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺁ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺮﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ
ﻲﻣ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﺬـﮔ . ﻲﻠـﺻﺍ ﻦﻳﺮـﺗ
ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲﻃﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ
) ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ (
ﺤﻣ ﻡﻮﻬﻔﻣ ،ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪ
ﺖﺳﺍ٤
.
ﻦﻳﺍ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻲﻧﺍﻮﺗﺎﻧ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻪﺑ
ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﺭﺩ
ﻥﺩﺮـﻛ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻲـﺗﺁ ﻱﺎﻫﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ
ﺩﻮـﺧ
ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﺪﺣ ﺎﺗ ﻚﺷ ﻲﺑ .
ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻝﺍﻮﺌﺳ ﺭﻮـﺧ ﺭﺩ
،ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺕﺪﺷ ﻳ
ﺖ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ .
ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﺕﺭﺎـﺒﻋ ﻪـﺑ
ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺖﺤﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻪﻧﻮﮕﭼ
ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ
؟ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﻲﻌﺳ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ،ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪـﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪـﺤﻣ ﺮـﺑ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺎﺗ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﺩﺮـﻴﮔ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺰﻳﺎﺣ ﻪﻌﻣﺎﺟ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ .
ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻲﺸﺨﺑﺮﺛﺍ ﺕﺎﺒﺛﺍ ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺩ
ﺁ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻥ
، ﻲﻣ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺫﺎﺨﺗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻪ .
1- R.W. GoldSmith.
2- R.I. McKinnon.
3- E. S. Shaw.
4- Liqudity constraints.
2 - ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﺎﺗ 1970 ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺏﻮﻛﺮﺳ ﺩﻮﺑ ﻩﺩﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﻥﺎﻨﭼ١
ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﺸﻴﭘ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ
ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺏﻮﻛﺮﺳ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺛﺄﺘﻣ
ﺪﻧﺩﻮﺑ . ﻡﺍﻭ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻭ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻭ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻭ ﺎﻫ
ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻱ
ﺩﻮـﺑ ﺮﻴﮔﺍﺮﻓ ﻡﺍﺪﻗﺍ ﻚﻳ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻭ
ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪـﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻲﺑﻮﻛﺮﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻤﻬﻣ ﺶﺨﺑ ،ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻞﻴﻜﺸﺗ ﺍﺭ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻲـﺧﺮﺑ ﺯﺍ ﺖـﻟﻭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ
ﺶﺨﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻭ ﺖﻳﺎﻤﺣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﺎﻫ
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺎـﻳ ﻭ ﺮـﺗ
ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﻲﺘﺣ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﻧﺩﺮﻛ . ﺎﻈﻧ ﻡ ﺎـﻔﻳﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻡﺎـﻈﻧ ﺶـﻘﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻤﻴﻈﻋ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺮﻄﻴﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻨﻛ ﻱ
ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻭ ﺖﺷﺍﺩ
ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻴﻜﺗ ﺎﺑ
ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺪﺒﺳ ﻱﺭﻮﺘﺳﺩ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻭ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﻲﻔﻴﻛ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ٢
ﻲﻣ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺎﻫ ﺪـﻳﺩﺮﮔ
. ﺕﺭﻭﺮـﺿ
ﻞﻳﺍﻭﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺁ ﻖﻄﻨﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻱﺍﺮﺟﺍ ﻪﻫﺩ
ﻱ 1970 ﻲﻣﺮﺑ ﻥﺍﺩﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻪـﺳ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺩﺮﮔ
ﻡﺎﻧ ﻪﺑ
،ﺖﻴﻤﺷﺍﺪﻠﮔ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻚﻣ ﻭ ﻭﺎﺷ ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻥﻮﻨﻴﻛ
ﺍﺭ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﺩﺮﻛ ﻩ ﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧ
ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﺩﺭﻮﻔﻨﺘﺳﺍ ﺐﺘﻜﻣ ﻡﺎﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺒﺘﻜﻣ ﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺪﺷ٣
. ﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺎـﻳ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻡﻮﻬﻔﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳ
ﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺶـﻘﻧ ﺎـﺑ ﻭ ﺖـﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﺏﻮﻛﺮﺳ ﻡﻮﻬﻔﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ ﻪﻫﺩ ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ
ﺎـﻫ ﻭ
ﺳﺆﻣ ﻊﻴـﺳﻭ ﺖﻛﺭﺎـﺸﻣ ﻥﺎـﻜﻣﺍ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻢﻴﻈﻨﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﺕﺎﺴ ﺮـﺗ
ﻪﻟﺩﺎﺒﻣ ﺎﻫﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ
ﺪﻳﺩﺮﮔ .
ﻦﻴﺑ ﺕﺎﺴﺳﺆﻣ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻕﻭﺪﻨﺻ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻲﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ
ﻥﺎﻣﺯﺎﺳ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎﻬﺟ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ،ﻝﻮﭘ ﻲﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ
ﺎﺑ ﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺮﺑ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻣﺍﺪﻗﺍ ﻪﻧﻮﮔﺮﻫ ،ﻲﻧﺎﻬﺟ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺖﻛﺮﺣ ﻭ ﺪﺷ
ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻣﺍﺪﻗﺍ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺶﻳﻮﺧ ﻑﺪﻫ ﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺖﻤﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺎﻤﺷ ﺩﻭﺭ
. ﻥﺁ ﺎﺑ ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻝﺎﺣ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ
،ﺩﺮﻴﮔ
ﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻘﻠﺗ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻱﺎﻫ
) ﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ( ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ
ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ
ﻪﻄﺳﺍﻭ ﻭ ﺎﻫﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﻴﺳﻭ ﻒﻴﻃ ﺵﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﻭ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺬﮔﺍﻭ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﻭﺮﻴﻧ
٤ﺪﻨﻛ . ﺍﺯ ﻱﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﺮﻈﻧ
، ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻣ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ
ﺆ ﻪﻔﻟ ﻱ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ
، ﻲﻟﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻪﺑ ًﺎﻣﻭﺰﻟ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ
ﻱ ﻲﻤﺳﺍ
ﺖﺴﻴﻧ . ﺍﺭ ﻭ ﻲﻔﺟ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ
٥ﻞﺳ ) 1967 ( ﻭ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻭ ﻭ ﺮﻨﻴﺘﻠﮕﻴﺘﺳﺍ ﺍ
٦ﺲﻳ
) 1981 ( ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻳﺍﺩﺯ ﺕﺍﺭﺮﻘﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻦﺘﺷﺍﺩﺮﺑ ،ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ
1- Financial repression.
2- portfolio.
3- Stanford.
4 - ،ﺭﻮﻣﺎﻧ ﻩﺩﺍﺯ ﻢﻴﺣﺭ ﻦﺴﺤﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻤﻴﺷﺮﺑﺍ ﺪﻴﻤﺣ 1385
ﺹ ، 3 . 5- Jaffee and Russll.
6- Stiglitz and weiss.
ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ،ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻝﻼﻘﺘﺳﺍ ،ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺎﺴﺳﺆﻣ ﺩﻭﺭﻭ ﺖﻟﻮﻬﺳ ،ﻱﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻱﺯﺎﺳ
ﻭ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺖﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ
ﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺏﺎﺴﺣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳ
، ﻞﻴﻜﺸﺗ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﺮﺻﺎﻨﻋ ﺯﺁ ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ
ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﺏﻮﺴﺤﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ
١ﺪﻧﻮﺷ . ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﺍﺮﻳﺪﻨﺑ ﻩﺎﮔﺪﻳﺩ ﺯﺍ
)٢
2000 (،
ﻭﺩ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ :
ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﺖﺴﺨﻧ ﺖﻟﺎﺧﺩ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻳﺍﺩﺯ
ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻭ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻱﺭﺍﺪﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﻑﺪﻫ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻃﺎﻴﺘﺣﺍ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻚﻳ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﻦﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ .
ﺯﺍ
ﻱﻭ ﺮﻈﻧ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ،ﻲﺣﻼﺻﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﻗﺍ ﻳﺍﺩﺯ
ﻭ ﻲ ﺪﻳﺪﺤﺗ ﺖﻟﺎﺧﺩ ﺩﺎﻌﺑﺍ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺗﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﻱﺪﻴﻠﻛ ﺖﻴﻜﻟﺎﻣ ،ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ،٣
ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺪﻋﺍﻮﻗ ،
ﻲﻃﺎﻴﺘﺣﺍ ﻲﮕﻤﻫ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺏﺎﺴﺣ ﻭ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ،٤
ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ
٥ﺪﻧﺍ . ﻩﺎﮔﺪﻳﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺮﻳﻮﺳﺎﺑ
ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻱﺪﻴﻠﻛ ﺮﺻﺎﻨﻋ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻨﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ
: ﻲﻳﺍﺩﺯ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﺯﺍ
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ،
ﻦﺘﺷﺍﺩﺮﺑ
ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ،
ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﻱﺯﺎﺳ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺕﺎﺴﺳﺆﻣ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﻱ ،
ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﺩﺍﺯﺁ
ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ
ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺩﻭﺭﻭ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺕﺎﺴﺳﺆﻣ ﻭ
ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ
، ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﺭﻮﺤﻣ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﻲﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﻭ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺏﺎﺴﺣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ . ٦
ﻲﻠﻛ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ
ﻲﻟﺎﻣ
، ﻪﻄﺳﺍﻭ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺡﻼﺻﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺮﮔ
ﻲﻣ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻚﻳ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ،ﻩﺪﺷ ﺡﻼﺻﺍ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻚﻳ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ
ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱ ،ﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ
ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻱﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻢﻛ ﺮﺗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ، ﺖﺻﺮﻓ
ﺎﻫ ﺲﭘ ﻱ ﻭ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮﺧﺮﺑ ،ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﻊﻴﺳﻭ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻉﻮﻨﺗ ﻭ ﺩﺪﻌﺗ ﻭ ﺮﺗ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺩﺎﻬﻧ .
ﻪﻫﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻭ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻱﺎﻫ
1970 ﻭ 1980 ـﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪ
. ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺪﻨﻳﺁﺮﻓ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻪﻫﺩ
ﻱ 1970 ﺩﺮﻛ ﺯﺎﻏﺁ ﻩ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻢـﻫ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻱ
ﻝﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺩﺯ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ
ﻩ ﺍ ﺪﻧ . ،ﻩﺪـﺤﺘﻣ ﺕﻻﺎـﻳﺍ
ﻭ ﻥﺎﺘﺴﻠﮕﻧﺍ ﻊﻳﺮﺳ ﺍﺩﺎﻧﺎﻛ
ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺗ ﻲﻳﺍﺩﺯ
ﺪـﻧﺩﺮﻛ ﻡﺍﺪﻗﺍ .
ﺭﺩ ﻦـﭘﺍژ ﻪـﻫﺩ
ﻱ
1980 ﻡﺪﻗ ﻪﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻤﻬﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱ
ﺖﺷﺍﺩﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ .
ﺎﻴﻟﺎﺘﻳﺍ ﻭ ﻪﺴﻧﺍﺮﻓ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻱ ﻪﻧﺎﻃﺎﺘﺤﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺮـﻴﮕﻴﭘ ﻱﺍ
ﻭ ﻝﺮـﺘﻨﻛ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﺭﺩ
ﻪـﻫﺩ ﻱ
1980 ﻑﺬﺣ ﺪﻳﺩﺮﮔ . ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺮﻴﻈﻧ
ﻭ ﻮﻧﺪﻧﻻﺯ ،ﺎﻴﻟﺍﺮﺘﺳﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﻱﻭﺎﻨﻳﺪﻧﺎﻜـﺳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ
ﻂﺳﺍﻭﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻫﺩ
ﻱ 1980 ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺮﻴﺴﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺘﺷﺍﺩﺮﺑ ﻡﺎﮔ
ﺪﻨ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻭ ﻥﻮﭼ
،ﻥﺎﻧﻮﻳ
ﺎﭙﺳﺍ ﻭ ﻝﺎﻐﺗﺮﭘ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻴﻧ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﮕﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺮﺗ
ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ
٧ﺪﻧﺍ .
1 - ،ﻲﻤﻳﺮﻛ ﺪﻤﺻ ﺯﺍ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻪﺑ 1384
ﺕﺎﺤﻔﺻ ، 117 ﻭ 118 . 2- Bandiera, Page 10.
3- Creditallocation . 4- Prudential regulation.
5- Bandiera (2000) Page 3.
6- Revisond Baswir, Pages 1-3.
7- Blundel-Wignal Pages 149-151.
ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﺪﻨﻳﺍﺮﻓ ﻚﻳ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻲﻣ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻲﻃ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻡﻭﺍﺪﻣ ﻭ ﻱﺍ
ﺩﺮﻴﮔ . ﻱﺍﺮﺑ
ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ
، ﺭﺩ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ
، ﺯﺍ
ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎﻫ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻲﺗﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ
ﻲﺘـﺳﺎﻛ ﻡﺍﺪـﻛ ﺮـﻫ ﻪـﻛ ﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻳﺎـﻫ
ـﻧ ﺪ . ﺮﺘـﺸﻴﺑ
ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﺻﺎﺧ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ
ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻱ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻲـﻤﻧ ﻥﺎـﻴﺑ ﻭ ﺪـﻨﻨﻛ
ﺯﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﺣ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ
ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻒﻌﺿ ﺯﺍ ﺎﺗ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﺪﻨﻫﺎﻜﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ .
ﻪﺑ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻩﮋﻳﻭ
ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺘﺷﺬﮔ
ﺩﻮﻬﺸﻣ ﺮﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻱﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﺍﺮﻳﺪـﻨﺑ ﻥﻮـﭼ
) 2000 ( ﻭ ﺩﺎﻴﺑﺍ ﻭ ﻣ ﻮ
١ﻱﺩ ) 2002 ( ﺵﻼﺗ ﺮﻛ ﺩ ﻩ ﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺎﺗ ﺪﻧ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎﻫ ﻊﻣﺎﺟ ﻲﻳ ﺪـﻧﺮﻴﮔ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺮﺗ
.
ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎﻫ ﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻨﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻲﺑ
: ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻖﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ
، ٢
ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻪـﺑ ﻩﺩﺮﺘـﺴﮔ ﻝﻮـﭘ
،GDP ـﺴﻧ ﺖـﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻙﻮﻜـﺴﻣ ﻭ ﺱﺎﻨﻜـﺳﺍ ﺖﺒ
ﻪﺑ ﺹﺎﺨﺷﺍ ﻢﺠﺣ
ﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻝﻮﭘ ،
ﻝﻮﭘ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻪﺑ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ،
ﻲﻧﺎـﻴﻨﺑ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ
ﻱ
ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ، ﻱﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ
ﻱ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ، ﺕﺍﺭﺎـﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻲﻳﺎـﻄﻋﺍ
ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ
ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ
ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ،
ﺕﺍﺭﺎـﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﻲﻳﺎـﻄﻋﺍ
ﻪـﺑ ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ
ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﺶﺨﺑ ،
ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎﻫ ﻦﻳﻮـﻟ ﻭ ﺖـﻧﺎﻛ ﻱ ،
ﻩﺩﺮﭙـﺳ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻲﻤﺳﺍ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ،
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ، ﻲﻫﺪـﺑ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻱﺪـﻘﻧ ﻱﺎـﻫ
، ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ
ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻱﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ،
ﺩﺎﻴﺑﺍ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻭ
ﻣ ﻮ ﺩ ﻱ ﻭ ﺍﺮﻳﺪﻨﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ . ٣
ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎﻫ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻲﮕﻤﻫ ﺮﺧﺁ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻭﺩ ﺰﺟ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻱ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻚﻳ
ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺍ
ﺪﻧ . ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎﻫ ﻭ ﺩﺎﻴﺑﺍ ﻱ ﻱﺩﻮﻣ
ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺍﺮﻳﺪﻨﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻭ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﻲﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺖﻴﻌﻣﺎﺟ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ
ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻱ . ﻭ ﺩﺎﻴﺑﺍ ﻣ ﻮ ﻱﺩ ) 2002 ( ، ﻲﺼﺧﺎﺷ
ﺮﺑ ﻞﻤﺘﺸﻣ ﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺶﺷ
ﻪ ﺍ ﺪﻧ
، ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺮﻫ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺶﺷ
، 4 ﺖﻟﺎﺣ
ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺎﺗ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺏﻮﻛﺮﺳ ﺯﺍ ﺮﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺍﺭ
ﻚﻳ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫ
ﻚﻳ ﺩﺍﺪﻋﺍ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ
ﺎﺗ 4 ﺩﺮﻛ ﺏﻮﺴﻨﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻩ ﺍ
ﺪﻧ . ﻲﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﻚﻳ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺶﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺩﺍﺪﻋﺍ ﻊﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ
ﻱﺩﻮﻣ ﻭ ﺩﺎﻴﺑﺍ ﻲﻣ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ
ﺩﻮﺷ . ﺪﻨﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺶﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ
: ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ
ﻭ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻩﺮﻴﺧﺫ
ﻱ ﻪﻛ ﻦﻴﻧﺍﻮﻗ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻭ ﺩﻭﺭﻭ ﻦﻴﻧﺍﻮﻗ ﻩﻮﺟﻭ ،ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ،ﻲﻧﻮﻧﺎﻗ
ﻲﻣ ﻞﺘﺨﻣ ﺍﺭ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻢﻬﺳ ،ﻲﻃﺎﻴﺘﺣﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺮﻘﻣ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻭ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﺕﺍﺭﺮﻘﻣ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ،ﺪﻨﻛ
ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ
. ﻦﻳﺍ
ﺮﺑ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﻪﻛ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻩﻮﺟﻭ ﺮﻄﺧ ﻦﻳﺍ ،ﺪﻫﺩ
ﺍﺭ ﺰﻴﻧ
ﻲﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﻛ
ﺪﻨ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪﻛ
، ﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺮﻴﻏ ﻲﻠﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻱ
1- Abiad and Mody.
2- Financial depth.
3 - ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱ
ﺶﻴﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺹﻮﺼﺧ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺗ ﺏﺮﻋ ﻪﺑ ،ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻱﺪﻤﺤﻣﺭﺎﻳ )
1387 ( ﺕﺎﺤﻔﺻ 27 ﺎﺗ 33
ﻪﻌﺟﺍﺮﻣ ﻛ ﺪﻴﻨ .
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ .
ﺍﺮﻳﺪﻨﺑ ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ )
2000 ( ﺰﻴﻧ ﺩﺎﻌﺑﺍ ،ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻪﺑ ﻊﻣﺎﺟ ﻲﻫﺎﮕﻧ ﺎﺑ
ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺮﻈﻧﺪﻣ ﺍﺭ ﺩﺍ
ﺩ ﻩ ﺪﻧﺍ . ﻥﺁ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻳﺎﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﺖﺸﻫ
ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ،ﻚﻳ ﺮﻫ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻱ
ﻱﺯﺎﺠﻣ ) ﻲﻜﻳ ﻭ ﺮﻔﺻ (
ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﮔ ﺮ ﻪﺘﻓ ﺲﭙﺳ ﻭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ
ﺵﻭﺭ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻣ ﺆ ﻪﻔﻟ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ١
ﺯﺎﺳ ﻧ ﺪ . ﺮﻈﻧﺪﻣ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﺖﺸﻫ
ﺁ ﻥ ﺎﻫ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻨﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ :
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ
، ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻳﺎﻤﺣ
، ﺥﺮﻧ ﺫ ﻩﺮﻴﺧ ﻱ ﻲﻧﻮﻧﺎﻗ
، ﻪﻴﻤﻬﺳ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ
ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ
، ﺖﻴﻜﻟﺎﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ
، ﻲﺗﺭﺎﻈﻧ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ،
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻭ
ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻲﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ
.
3 - ﻭ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ
ﻱ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺁ
ﺲﭘ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ،ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺮﺑ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
، ﺍﺭ ﻲـﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ
ﺰﻴﻧ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺖﺤﺗ ﻲ
ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺪﻫﺩ . ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺎـﺑ ﻲﺗﺭﻮـﺻ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺪﻧ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻩﺪﻨﻳﺁ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧﺍ
ﺪﻨـﺷﺎﺑ .
ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﺰﻨﻴﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻓﺮﺼﻣ ﺕﺎﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻚﻳ ﻱﺎﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﺑ ﺪﻧﺍ
ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻲﺑﺎـﻳ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱﺍ ﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻪ
ﺍ ﺪﻧ . ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻲﺑﺎﻳ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱﺍ
، ﺭﻮـﻃ ﻪـﺑ ﻩﺩﺮﺘـﺴﮔ
ﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻱ
ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺍ ﺩﻮﺷ
.
) 1 (
T T
t t
t t
t t
c y
( r) ( r)
= =
=
+ +
å å
0 1 0 1
ﻪﻛ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ yt
ﺭﺩ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ
ﻱ ،t ct ﺭﺩ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ
ﻱ ﻭt ﺥﺮـﻧr ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ .
ﻦـﻳﺍ
ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻲﻣ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻱﺍ
ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻛ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﺩﻮـﺧ ﻱﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ
ﺪﻫﺩ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺨﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻑﺮﻃ ﺮﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻝﻮﻃ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ .
ﻲـﻟﻭ ﻩﺮـﻣﺯﻭﺭ ﺕﺎـﻴﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺎـﺴﻧﺍ ﻱ
ﻲﭘ ،ﺩﻮﺧ ﻲﻣ ﺐـﻠﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺮﺑ ﻪـﺸﻴﻤﻫ
ﺖـﺴﻴﻧ ﻕﺩﺎـﺻ
، ﺎـﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﻴـﺴﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﺍﺮـﭼ
ﻲﻤﻧ ﻪﻧﺍﻮﺘـﺸﭘ ﻪﺑ ًﺎﻓﺮﺻ ﻭ ﻩﺍﻮﺨﻟﺩ ﻭ ﻪﻧﺍﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻱﺭﺎﺟ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺪﻨﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﻱ
ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ
ﻩﺪﻨﻳﺁ ﻡﺍﺪﻗﺍ ﻥﺎﺷ ﻡﺍﻭ ﺬﺧﺍ ﻪﺑ
ﻛ ﺪﻨﻨ . ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻲﻤﻳﺍﺩ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ،ﺩﺭﺍﺪـﻧ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻦﺘﻓﺮـﮔ ﺽﺮـﻗ ﻥﺎـﻜﻣﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻱﺪﺣ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﺰﻨﻴﻛ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺖﻤﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻞﻴﻣ
ﺪﻨﻛ ﻭ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﻤﻳﺍﺩ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻕﺍﺪـﺼﻣ
ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻪﻛ .
ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺎﻨﻴﺑ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺰـﻴﻧ ، ﻭ ﻭﺪـﻧﺁ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﻪﻴﺒـﺷ
ﻣ ﻮ ﻳﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻧﺎﻴﻠﻴﮕ .
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺖﺒﺜﻣﺎﻧ ﻱﺍ
، ﻪـﻛ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ
ﻥﺎﻨﭼ ﻪﭼ ﻲـﻣ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ ،ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻲﻠﻴﻟﺩ ﺮﻫ ﻪﺑ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺪـﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﺍﺪـﻴﭘ
ﻨﻛ ﺪ .
1- Principal Component Analyses (PCA).
ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻥﺁ ﻪﺘﻔﮔ ﻪﭼ ،ﺪﺷ
ﻞﻴﻬـﺴﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﺮـﺠﻨﻣ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺮﺑ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ
ﻡﺍﻭ ﺩ ﻫ ﻱﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻭ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺕﺎﺴﺳﺆﻣ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻲ ﻮﺷ
ﺩ . ﻲﻣ ﺮﻈﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻚـﻳ ﻪـﭼﺮﻫ ﻪـﻛ ﺪﺳﺭ
ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ،ﺩﻭﺭ ﺶﻴﭘ ﻥﺪﺷ ﺮﺗﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺖﻤﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻲﻳﺎـﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﺶﻴـﺑ ﺮـﺗ ﻱ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ
ﺖـﺷﺍﺩ ﺪﻨﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻡﺍﻭ ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﻭ
ﺮـﺠﻨﻣ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪـﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪـﺤﻣ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﻪـﺑ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ .
4 - ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ
ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻙﺪـﻧﺍ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪـﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪـﺤﻣ ﺮـﺑ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺹﻮﺼﺧ ﺭﺩ
،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻭ ﻲﻣ ﻲﺑﻮﺧ ﻪﺑ ﻢﻫ ﻙﺪﻧﺍ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻦﻴﻤﻫ ﻲﻟ ﺍﺭ ﻡﺯﻻ ﻉﻮﻨﺗ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﻨﻛ ﻦﻴﻣﺄﺗ ﺪ .
ﻒﻟﺍ ( گﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻞﮔﺍ )1
1996 (
ﺮﺒﻣﺍﻮﻧ ﺭﺩ 1985
ﺪﺋﻮﺳ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ٢
ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻲﻫﺩ ﻡﺍﻭ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻭ ﺎـﻫ
ﺖﺷﺍﺬﮔ ﺭﺎﻨﻛ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺕﺎﺴﺳﺆﻣ .
ﺍ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺞﻨﭘ ﺯﺍ ﺪـﻌﺑ ﺩﻮـﻛﺭ ﻦﻳﺮﺗﺪـﺑ ﺪﻫﺎـﺷ ﺪﺋﻮﺳ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗ
ﻱﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﻪﻫﺩ ﻱ 1930 ﺩﻮﺑ . ﻦﻴﺑ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻱ 1991 ﺎﺗ 1993 ﻭ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ
ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﻪﺑ
ﺭﻮﻃ ﺐﺠﻌﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﻜﻴﺑ ﻭ ﺪﻧﺩﺮﻛ ﻁﻮﻘﺳ ﻱﺭﻭﺁ 6
/ 1 ﻪﺑ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ 2
/ 8 ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ
ﺖﻓﺎﻳ . ﻥﺎﻣﺰﻤﻫ
، ﺖـﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﻜﺷﺭﻭ ﻑﺮﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ،ﺩﺮﻛ ﻁﻮﻘﺳ ﻡﺎﻬﺳ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ
ﺖﻓﺎﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﻱﺮﺴﻛ ﻭ .
ﻝﺍﻮﺌﺳ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺩﻮﺑ ﻊﻳﺎـﻗﻭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲﻃﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺎﻳﺁ ﻪﻛ ﻭ
ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ؟ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ
ﺍﺭ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ
ﺩﺮﻛ ﻩ ﺍ ،ﺪـﻧ ﻪـﻛ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻦﻳﺪـﺑ
ﺪﺋﻮﺳ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﺐﺟﻮﻣ
ﺮﺧﺍﻭﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﻫﺩ
ﻱ 1980 ﺪﺷ ﻩ ﺮـﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻭ
ﺰﻴﻧ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻲﻫﺪﺑ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺍﺭ
ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻁﻮﻘﺳ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺐﺒﺳ ﺍﺭ
ﺖﺳﺍ .
،ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ گﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻞﮔﺍ
ﺕﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺖﻴﺳﺎﺴﺣ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻧﺎﻴﻟﺎﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱ
ﺯﺍ ﺪﺋﻮﺳ 1950 ﺎﺗ 1994 ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻝﻮﻃ ﺭﺩ ، ﺩﺮﻛ ﻱﺮـﻴﮔ
ﺪـﻧ . ﺮـﮔﺍ
ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
، ﻂـﺳﺍﻭﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺪـﻌﺑ ﺖﻴـﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﻪـﻫﺩ
ﻱ 1980
ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ .
ﻩﺭﺍﺰﮔ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺑﺎﻴﺘﺳﺩ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ
،ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻱﺍ ﻥﺁ
ﺎﻫ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺎﮔﺪـﻨﻨﻛ
ﺩﺮﻛ ﻚﻴﻜﻔﺗ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻧ
ﺪ . ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺎﺑ ﺖﺴﺨﻧ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ
ﻲﻣ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻱﺭﺎﺟ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺪﻨﻛ
، ﺶﻴـﭘ ﻞـﺑﺎﻗ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻩﻭﺮـﮔ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻲﻟﻭ ﻲـﻨﻴﺑ
ﺖﺴﻴﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻤﻳﺍﺩ ﺪﻣﺁ )
ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻬﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﻡﺪﻋ (
ﻲﻣ ﺖﻴﻌﺒﺗ ﺪـﻨﻛ
.
ﺕﺎﺿﻭﺮﻔﻣ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ،ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻝﻮﻤﻌﻣ
، ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺮﻠﻳﻭﺍ ﻪﺑ
ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺯ ﻳ ﺮ ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ :
) 2 (
ci ci
t t
C Y
D = D
1- Agell and L. Berg.
2- Swedish Riks benk.
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ
cit
ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ C
، t tci
ﻣﺯ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ Y ﻥﺎ ﻭt ﻣ ﻞﺿﺎﻔﺗ ﺮﮕﻠﻤﻋD ﻪﺒﺗﺮ
ﻱ ﻝﻭﺍ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺮﻠﻳﻭﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ
:
) 3
p * * (
t t
DC = m + e
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ m*
ﻭ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺩﺪﻋ ﻚﻳ
*
et
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺎﻄﺧ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ .
ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺮﮔﺍ ﺯﺍl
ﺎﻴﺘﺧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ،ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺭ
ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻻﺎﺑ
ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ :
) 4
t t t (
C Y
D = m + lD + e
) 5
* * (
t t
( ) , ( )
m = - l m1 e = - l e1
ﻭ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ
ﻱ ) 4 ( ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ،
، l ﻢﻬـﺳ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﻪـﻛ ﻱﺩﺍﺮـﻓﺍ
ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪـﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪـﺤﻣ ﺎـﺑ
ﻭﺮﺑﻭﺭ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺶﻳﻮﺧ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ
ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
، ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺪﻣﺁ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ .
ـﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﻪ
ﻢﻫ ﺯﻭﺮﺑ ﻥﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲﻄﺧ
DYt
t ﺎﺑ ،e گﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻞﮔﺍ
، ﻝﻭﺭﺎﻛ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺍﺭﺎـﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ١
) 1994 (،
ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺮﻳﺯ
ﺪﻧﺩﺮﻛ ﻲﺣﺍﺮﻃ :
) 6 (
t t t t
C Y v v -
D = m + l D + + q 1
ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱ
ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻝﻮﻃ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺖﻴﺳﺎﺴﺣ
ﻲﻣ ﻛ ﺮﻴﺧ ﺎﻳ ﺪﻨ
، ﻥﺁ ﺎﻫ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫl ﻝﺎﺳ
ﺎﻫ ﻱ 1980 ﺩﺮﻛ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻩ ﺍ
٢ﺪﻧ . ﺮﮔﺍ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ
، ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛl .
ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ
ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ
ﻲﻃl ﻪﻫﺩ ﻱ 1980 ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺭﺍﺪﻳﺎﭘ )
ﺩﻭﺪﺣ 3 / 0 .(
ﺏ ( ﻝﺪﻧﻼﺑ ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ٣
) 1990 (
ﻫ ﻭ ﻥﺪﻧﻼﺑ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻑﺪﻫ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤ
ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺖﻴﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺮﺛﺍ ،ﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ
ﺍﺭ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ
ﻝﺪﻣ :
) 7 (
t t t t t
C B Y B Y- B Y- w D = m + 1D + 2D 1+ 3D 2+
ﻲﺘﺳﺭﺩ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ
ﻱ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﻤﻳﺍﺩ ) ﻲـﻨﻌﻳ
i i
B
=
å = 3
1
( 0
ﺩﺮﻛ ﻲﺑﺎﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﻩ ﺍ
ﺪﻧ . ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻮﻀﻋ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻲﻃOECD
ﻪـﺳ
ﻪﻫﺩ ﻱ 1960 ، 1970 ﻭ 1980 ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﻧﺎﮔﺍﺪﺟ
، ﻪﻛ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺭﺩ
ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﺖﻴﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﺎﻜﻳﺮﻣﺁ
ﻱﺭﺎﺟ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ )
ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ (
ﻪﻫﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎـﻫ 60 ﻭ 70 ﻻﺎـﺑ ﺭﺎﻴـﺴﺑ ،ﻩﺩﻮـﺑ
ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻟﻭ
1- Caroll.
2 - ﻝﺎﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ 80 ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ 80 ـ 50 ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ، 81 ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ 81 ـ 50 ﻦﻴﻤﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩ
. 3- Blundell-Wignal.
ﻪﻫﺩ ﻱ 80 ﺪﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻢﻛ ﻲﻠﻴﺧ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻔﺻ
ﺭﺩ ، ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎـﺟ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺖﻴﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﻦﭘﺍژ
ﻪـﻫﺩ ﻪﺳ ﺮﻫ ﻲـﻨﻌﻣ
ﺭﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺍﺪـﻘﻣ ﻲـﻟﻭ ﻪـﻫﺩ
ﻱ 80 ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻒـﺼﻧ ﺖـﺳﺍ
ﺭﺩ ، ﻥﺎﺘـﺴﻠﮕﻧﺍ
ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﺟ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺖﻴﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﻭ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻫﺩ ﻪﺳ ﺮﻫ
ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺖـﺑﺎﺛ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ 2
/ 0 ﺖـﺳﺍ
،
ﺭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﻥﺎـﻣﺯ ﻝﻮـﻃ ﺭﺩ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺖﻴﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﺍﺩﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﻪـﻫﺩ
ﻱ 1980
ﻲﺑ ًﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ
ﻭ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺩﺮـﻜﻧ ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺖﻴﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﻪﺴﻧﺍﺮﻓ ﻭ ﻥﺎﻤﻟﺁ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻭﺩ
ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻃ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺎﺘﻔﻴﻧ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺖﺤﺗ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺖﻴﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﺎﺗ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﺩﺮـﻴﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ .
ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻚـﻳ
ﻢـﻫ ﺭﺎـﺑ ﺎـﺑ
ﻱﺎﻫﺩﺍﺩ ﻲﻘﻴﻔﻠﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ١
ﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺭﻮ ﻦـﻳﺍ
ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺎـﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﺎـﻫ ﻕﺎـﻔﺗﺍ
ﻩﺩﺎﺘﻓﺍ
، ﺪﺷ ﻲﺑﺎﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻭ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩ
. ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻱ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲـﻘﻴﻔﻠﺗ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻫﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﺟ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﻪﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﻪﺸﻴﻤﻫ
، ﺭﺍﺪـﻘﻣ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻝﻮﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﻭ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻥﺁ .
ـﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻝﻮﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪـﺤﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻱﺯﺎ
ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻱﺭﺎﺟ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺖﻴﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻢﻛ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ
ﺖﺳﺍ .
ﺝ ( ﺐﻴﺒﺣ ﻩﺎﺷ ﺍ
٢...
ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ 2006 )
(
ﺐـﻴﺒﺣ ﻩﺎﺷ ﺍ
...
ﻥﺍﺭﺎـﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ
، ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻝﺍﻮﺌـﺳ ﺎـﻳﺁ ﻪـﻛ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ
ﺐﺒـﺳ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ
ﻲﻣ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﺎـﭙﻧ ،ﺭﺎـﻤﻧﺎﻴﻣ ،ﻱﺰﻟﺎـﻣ ،ﻱﺰﻧﻭﺪـﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ،ﻦﻴـﭙﻴﻠﻴﻓ ،ﻝ
،ﺭﻮﭘﺎﮕﻨﺳ ﻩﺮﻛ
ﻱ ﺪﻨﻠﻳﺎﺗ ﻭ ﻥﺍﻮﻳﺎﺗ ،ﺎﻜﻧﻻ ﻱﺮﺳ ،ﻲﺑﻮﻨﺟ ﺘـﺷﺍﺬﮔ ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ ﻪﺑ
ﻪ ﺍ ﺪـﻧ . ﻥﺁ ﺎـﻫ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ
ﺦﺳﺎﭘ ﻦﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻝﺍﻮﺌﺳ
،ﺩﻮﺧ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻟﺪﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻛ
ﻩﺩﺮ ﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﻲﻋﻮﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧ ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺩﻮﺒﻬﺑ
ﻱ
گﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻞﮔﺍ
،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻚﻳ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
ﺢﻴﺤﺼﺗ
٣ﺎﻄﺧ ) (ECM ﻲﻣﻮـﻤﻋ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻢﻴﻘﺘـﺴﻣ ﺭﻮـﻃ ﻪـﺑARDL
ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ
ﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ .
ﻪﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ
ﺯ ﻳ ﺮ ﺖﺳﺍ :
) 8 (
n m
t t j t j j t j t
j j
C B Y B Y- C - ECM -
= =
D = a + 0D +
å
D +å
j D + d 11 1
ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺎﺟ ECMt-
ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ) Ct--πYt-) ﻪﺑﺎﺟ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ
ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻱﺍﺰﺟﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﺟ
ﺭﺩ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ) 8 ( ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺭﻮﻬﻇ .
ﺮﮔﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻔﻨﻣd
، ﻦﻳﺍ ﻦﻤﺿ ﻪﻛ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻢﻫ ﻊﻤﺟ ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺍﺭ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺖـﻓﺮﮔ
ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪـﺤﻣ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ،
ﻢﻫ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ
ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ )
٤ﻩﺎﭼ ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ )
1995 .((
1- Pooled data.
2- Shah Habibullah.
3- Error Correction Model (ECM) 4- Chah
ﺐﻴﺒﺣ ﻩﺎﺷ ﺍ
...
ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ
، ﻝﺪﻣ ) 8 ( ﺍﺭ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻱ 1950 ﺎﺗ 1994 ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﺩﺮﻛ ﺪـﻧ .
ﻪﻛ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻞﻛ
ﻉﻮﻗﻭ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺩﺍﺯﺁ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻡﻭﺩ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﺮـﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﺑ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻭﺩ ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ
ﻭ ﺲﭙﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻭﺩ ﻦـﻳﺍ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ
ﺪﻧﺩﺮﻛ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﻢﻫ ﺎﺑ .
ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻂﻘﻓ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺮﻛ ﻱ ﺎﻜﻧﻼﻳﺮـﺳ ،ﻲﺑﻮﻨﺟ
ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺎﺑ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ ﻥﺍﻮﻳﺎﺗ ﻭ
، ﺍﻮﻣ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺟ
ﻪﻴﻘﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻱ
ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻩﺪﻧﺎﻣ
ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﻲﺘﺣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ .
5 - ﻝﺪﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻦﻳﻭﺪﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﻭﺪﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻭﺩ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﺪـﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻪـﺑ ،
ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻚﻳ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺭﻮﻃ ﻮﺧ ﻱﺭﺎﺟ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺐﺴﺣﺮﺑ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻲﻓﺮﺼﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺩ ﻭ
ﻲـﻣ ﻢﻴﻈﻨﺗ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺮﻤﻋ ﻡﺎﻤﺗ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ،ﻡﻭﺩ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺪـﻨﻛ
. ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻞـﻛ
ﺮﺼﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻊﻤﺟ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻑﺮﺼﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻑ
ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺩﻮـﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ
؛ ﻲـﻨﻌﻳ
Yt=Y1t+Y2t
. ﻝﺎﺣ ﺎﺑ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺪـﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﺖـﺑﺎﺛ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﻚﻳ ،ﻝﻭﺍ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻞـﻛ ﺯﺍl
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﻌﻣﺎﺟ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ
، ﻨﻌﻳ ﻲ Y1t=lYt
ﺲﭘ Y2t= (1-l)Yt
ﺩﻮـﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ .
ﺎـﺑ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺽﺮـﻓ ﻪـﻛ
ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻲﻣ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻑﺮﺼﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ
ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
، ﻲـﻣ ﺖـﺷﻮﻧ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ :
DC1t=l∆Yt .
ﺚﺤﺑ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ
١ﻝﺎﻫ ) 1978 (،
ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻩﻭﺮـﮔ )
ﺁﺭﺩ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻣ
ﺩﻮﺧ ﺮﻤﻋ ﻞﻛ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ
( ﻲﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻳﺁ
:
) 9 ( DC2t = m + (1-l) et
ﻥﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺩﺪﻋ ﻚﻳm
et
ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻟﻼﺘﺧﺍ ﻪﻛ
ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻭt ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﺭﺩt-1 ﻅﺎﺤﻟ ﺎﺑ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻢﻴﻈﻨﺗ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ
ﻲﻤﻳﺍﺩ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺪﻧﺍ . ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻝﺎﺣ
ﻲﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻞﻛ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
ﺖﺷﻮﻧ ﺮﻳﺯ :
) 10 ( DCt = DC1t + DC2t = m + l DYt + (1-l) et
ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﮔ ﻪﻧﻮ ﻪﻛ ،ﺪﺷ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ )l
ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﻱﺭﺎـﺟ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
( ﺍﺭ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻣ
ﺪﻴﻣﺎﻧ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺎﺑ .
ﻥﺎـﻘﻘﺤﻣ
ﻦـﻳﻭﻼﻓ ﻪـﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻧﺍﻭﺍﺮﻓ )٢
1981 ( ، ـﺳ ﻭ ﮓـﻧﻮﻟ ﻱﺩ ﺎ
٣ﺯﺮﻣ ) 1986 ( ﻭ ﺎـﻫ ﻭ ﻝ ﻴﻣ ﻜـﺸ ﻴ
٤ﻦ
) 1982 ( ﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻭ ﺮﻜﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯ ﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱﺯﺎﺳ
ﻪ ﻭ ﻮـﻴﻜﻨﻣ ﻭ ﻞـﭙﻣﺎﻛ )٥
1990 ( ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
1- Hall 2- Flavin.
3- DeLong and Summers.
4- Mishkin.
5- Campell and Mankiw.
ﻛ ﺚﺤﺑ ﺩﺮ ﻩ ﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧ ﻱﺯﺎﺳ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻢﻫ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺎﮔﺯﺎﺳ .
ﻝﺪﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻻﺎـﺑ
ﺎـﺑ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﻲﺗﻼﻜﺸﻣ .
ﻮﻴﻜﻨﻣ ﻭ ﻞﭙﻣﺎﻛ )
1990 (،
ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻩ ﺍ
ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧ ﻢﻫ
ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻲﻄﺧ
et
ﻭ Yt
ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺍﺩ ﺩﺭ ﻪﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺵﻭﺭ
ﺎﻫ ﻝﻮﻤﻌﻣ ﻱ ﺐﺒـﺳ
ﺐـﻳﺭﺍ ﻥﺪـﺷ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ l
ﻲﻣ ﺷ ﻮ ﺩ . ﺯﺍ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﺐﺒﺳ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ ﻥﺎﻘﻘﺤﻣ
ﻢﻫ ﻥﻮﭼ ﺍ ﺐﻴﺒﺣ ﻩﺎﺷ ...
) 2006 ( ﺢﻴﺤـﺼﺗ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺯﺍ
ﻪﻛ ﺎﻄﺧ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ 1983 ﻱﺭﺪﻨﻫ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﺩﺮـﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ،ﺪﺷ ﻪﺿﺮﻋ١
ﻩ ﺍ ﺪـﻧ . ـﺑ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﻪ
ﺭﺎﺑ ﻦﻴﻟﻭﺍ ،ﺎﻄﺧ ﺢﻴﺤﺼﺗ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪﺑ
ﻪﻠﻴﺳﻭ ﻱ ﻦﺳﺪﻳﻮﻳﺩ ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ٢
) 1978 ( ﺮـﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑ
ﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ :
) 11 ( DCt = q0 + q1DYt + q2 (Ct-1-Yt-1) + et
ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﻪﺘـﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﻱﺭﺎـﺟ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ
ﻱ
ﻩﺪﺸﻧ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﺟ )
ﺲﭘ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ( ﺭﺩ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺷﺬﮔ .
ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ
ﻲﻓﺮﺼﻣ ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﻲﻳﺎﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻪﻧ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻳ
q1
) ﺩﺍﺮـﻓﺍ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻪـﺟﺍﻮﻣ
ـﺑ ﺎ
ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ (
ﺍﺭ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻲـﻣ ﻪـﻜﻠﺑ ،ﺪـﻫﺩ
ﻢﻴﻘﺘـﺴﻣ ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪـﺑ ﺪـﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﺶﺠﻨﺳ ﻌﻤﺠﻤﻫ ﺩﺮـﻴﮔ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﺮﻈﻧﺪـﻣ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲ .
ﻲـﺟﺮﻨﺑ ﻥﺍﺭﺎـﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ٣
) 1993 ( ﻭ ﺯﺮﻣﺮﻛ ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ٤
) 1992 (،
ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻩ ﺍ
ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ ﺭﺍﺩﺎـﻨﻌﻣ ﻪـﻛ ﺪﻧ q2
ﻱﺎـﻨﻌﻣ ﻪـﺑ
ﻌﻤﺠﻤﻫ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲ .
ﺎﭼ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻩ
) 1995 ( ﻲـﻣ ﻩﺭﺎـﺷﺍ ، ﻛ
ﺪـﻨﻨ
ﻪﻛ ﻌﻤﺠﻤﻫ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪـﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪـﺤﻣ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻱﺭﺎﺟ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ
، ﺍﺮـﻳﺯ
ﻢﻫ ﻌﻤﺟ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲ
، ﻥﺁ ﮓﻨﻫﺎﻤﻫ ﺖﻛﺮﺣ ﺮﺑ ﺮﻇﺎﻧ ﺎﻫ
ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﮓـﻨﻫﺎﻤﻫ ﺖﻛﺮﺣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻭ
ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪـﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪـﺤﻣ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ،ﻲﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﺟ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻕﻮـﻓ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ
q1
ﺯﺭﺍ ﻢـﻫ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﺮﮕﻧﺎـﻴﺑ ﻭ ﻲـﻠﺒﻗ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺭﺩl
) ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ( ﻱﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻱﺭﺎﺟ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻢﻴﻈﻨﺗ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ .
ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ،ﺎﻄﺧ ﺢﻴﺤﺼﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻝﺪﻣ
ﺎﻫ ﺎﺑ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻱ
ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ )٥
(ARDL ﺖﺳﺍ . ﺎﺑ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ
ﻫ ﺎ ﻱﺎﻄﺧ ﺢﻴﺤﺼﺗ ﻱ ﺪﺷ ﺮﻛﺫ
ﻩ
ﺶﻴﭘ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ، ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ
، ARDL ﻲﻠﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﺗ ) ﺐﻴﺒﺣ ﻩﺎﺷ ﺍ
..
. ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ )
2006 .((
ﻝﺪﻣ ﻲﻠﻛ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻊﺑﺎﺗARDL
ﻲﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺖﺷﻮﻧ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
:
) 12 (
k m
t j t j j t t
j j
C Y- C-
= =
= a +
å
b +å
f 1+ e0 1
1- Hendry.
2- Davidson.
3- Banerjee . 4- Kremers.
5- Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL).
ـﺣ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺮﺑ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻌﻣﺎﺟ ﻞﻛ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻥﺎـﻣﺯ ﻭ ﻝﺎ
ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺬﮔ ﻞﺒﻗ ﻱﺎﻫ
) ﻩﺭﻭﺩm ﻱ ﺒﻗ ﻞ ( ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﮕﺘـﺴﺑ ﺰـﻴﻧ .
ﻢـﻛ ﻭ ﻪﻓﺎـﺿﺍ ﺎـﺑ
ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﻱﺎـﻄﺧ ﺢﻴﺤﺼﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ،ﻪﻠﺌﺴﻣ ﺖﻴﻠﻛ ﻥﺩﺍﺩ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ،ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺮﻳﺯ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺪﻣﺁ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ :
) 13 (
k m
t t j t j j t j t t
j j
C Y Y- C- ecm-
= =
D = a + b D0 +
å
b D +å
f D + d 1+ e1 1
ﻪﻛ ecmt-1
ﻥﺎﻤﻫ Ct-1-gYt-1
ﻚـﻤﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻪـﺑﺎﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎـﺳ ﻱﺮـﺒﺟ ﺕﺎـﻴﻠﻤﻋ
ﻲﻳﺎـﺟ
ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﺮﻫﺎﻇ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻭ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ
ﻝﺪﻣ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻫﺩ ﺶﻳﺎﻤﻧ ﺍﺭ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺕﺪﺷ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ .
ﻝﺪﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﺎﺑ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣARDL
ﺰﺗﺭﺍﻮﺷ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻚﻤﻛ ﻪﺑ -
ﻭ ﻱﺰﻴﺑ 4 ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﻱ ﺎـﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ،ﻱﺩﻭﺭﻭ ﺕ
ﻲﻃ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻲﻠﺼﻓ ﻝﺎﺳ
ﺎﻫ ﻱ 1367 ﺎﺗ 1385 ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ :
) 14 (
cons . . inc . ecm( )
D = -1726 6+0 159D -0 25 -1 (-4 05. ) (-2 14. ) ( . )4 22
R2=20% D W- =2 25. SBC= -626 48.
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻥﺎﻤﻫCons
، ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ Inc ﻭ
ﻪـﻠﻤﺟecm ﻱ
ﻄﺧ ﺢﻴﺤﺼﺗ ﺖﺳﺎ
. ﺭﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ARDL ﻲﻳﺎﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ
ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ ﺎـﻬﻨﺗ ، ﻭ ﻞـﺒﻗ ﻱ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﺧﺎﻨﺷ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻱﺭﺎﺟ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﺟ ﻱ
ﺪﻧﻮﺷ . ﺢﻴﺤﺼﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ
ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻱﺎﻄﺧ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ
ﻱ 14 ﺪﻗﺎﻓ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺭﺩ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻪﺘــﺷﺬﮔ ﻱﺎــﻫ ﺖــﺳﺍ
. ﺎــﺑ ﻪــﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎــﻨﺑ ﻪــﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ
ﻱ 13 ﺍﺰــﺟﺍ ﺎــﻬﻨﺗ ﻱ
Dinc ﻭ
ecm( )-1 ﻪـﻛ ﺪﻨﺘـﺴﻫ ﺖﻳﺅﺭ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ
ﺐـﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﺖـﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎـﻤﻫ
Yt
ﻭ D ecmt-1
ﺭﺩ
ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ 13 ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ . ﻥﺎﻨﭼ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻲـﻨﻌﻣ ﻭ ﻲـﻔﻨﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ،ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ ﺭﺍﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﻡﻮﻠﻌﻣ ،ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻭ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ
، ﻊﻤﺠﻤﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪـﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻭ
ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ
. ،ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻥﺁ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ 16
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ .
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ
،ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻲﻣ
ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ
ﺍﺭ ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﻤﻧ
ﻭ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻭ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻭﺩ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻥﺁ
ﺎـﻫ
ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺮﮕﻳﺪﻜﻳ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺩﺮﻛ
. ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﻮـﺑ ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻦﻜﻤﻣ ﻲﻄﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺘﺒﻟﺍ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ
ﻱ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ
ﺗﺍ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺷ ،ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﻜ
. ﻪـﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﻱ
ﺵﻭﺭ ﺮـﺑ ﻪـﻴﻜﺗ ﺎﺑ ،ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺪﻨﻳﺁﺮﻓ ﻲﮕﻧﻮﮕﭼ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﺖﻴﻌﺿﻭ ﻲـﺳﺎﻨﺷ
ﻲﻣ ،ﺍﺮﻳﺪﻨﺑ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
ﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺍﺩ ﻪﻳﺍﺭﺍ ﻲﻠﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳ ﺩ
.
ﺭﺩ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺝﻮﻣ ﻭﺩ ،ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺩﺎـﺠﻳﺍ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
. ﺝﻮـﻣ
ﻞﻳﺍﻭﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺴﺨﻧ ﻪﻫﺩ
ﻱ 1370 ﻪـﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻱﺎﺘﺳﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻉﻮـﻗﻭ ﻪـﺑ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺘﺳﻮﻴﭘ ﻪ ﻞﻳﺍﻭﺍ ﻭ ﻪﻫﺩ ﻦﻴﻤﻫ ﺮﺧﺍﻭﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻡﻭﺩ ﺝﻮﻣ ﻭ ﻪﻫﺩ
ﻱ 1380 ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺎـﺘﻓﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﺍ .
ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ
ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﻱ ،ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻦﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺮـﺑ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ
ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻥﺁ
ﺎﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺮﻳﺪﻨﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺩﺎﻌﺑﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻡﺎﻬﻟﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺪﻣ
ﺩﻮﺧ ﻲﻋﺍﺪﺑﺍ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺩﺮﻛ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ
ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ،ﻩ
ﻣ ﺭﻮ ﺩ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪ :
1 - ﺥﺮﻧ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺯﺭﺍ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ
ﻱ ﺍﻭﺍﺮﻓ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺭﺎﭼﺩ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ؛ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻲﻧ
ﺭﺩ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﺎﻫ ﺮﺧﺍﻭﺍ ﻱ ﻪﻫﺩ ﻱ 1360 ﻝﺎﺳ ﺮﺧﺁ ﺎﺗ 1371
ﺥﺮﻧ ، ﺝﺍﻭﺭ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺩﺪـﻌﺘﻣ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﻭ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻱﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﺭﺩ 1372
ﻥﺎﺴﻜﻳ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻝﺎـﻤﻋﺍ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳ
ﺪـﺷ ﻱﺯﺭﺍ ﻡﺎـﻈﻧ ؛
ﻡﻼـﻋﺍ ﻲﻤـﺳﺭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪـﺑ ﺭﻭﺎﻨـﺷ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺖﻳﺍﺪﻫ ﺭﻭﺎﻨﺷ ﻱﺯﺭﺍ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ
،ﺪﻳﺩﺮﮔ ﻲـﻟﻭ ـﺳ ﻦﻴـﻤﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﻮـﻠﺟ ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﻝﺎ
ﻲـﻔﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺪـﻣﺎﻴﭘ ﻢﻴﻤـﺼﺗ ﻦـﻳﺍ
،
ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻉﻮﻗﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖﺳﻮﻴﭘ
. ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺪـﺷ ﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ
ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﻭ ﺖﻓﺎﻳ ﻪﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﻱ ﻲﺘﺣ
ﺪـﺷ ﻡﻼـﻋﺍ ﻕﺎـﭼﺎﻗ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺯﺍ ﺝﺭﺎﺧ ﻱﺯﺭﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋ .
ﺭﺩ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﻩﺎﻣ ﺖﺸﻬﺒﻳﺩﺭﺍ 1373
ﻱﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺎﺑ
ﺍﺭﺩﺎـﺻ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﺪـﻳﺩﺮﮔ ﻲـﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﻲﺗ
.
ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺧﺮﻧ ﺪﻨﭼ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻭ ﻱﺯﺭﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻝﺎﺳ
ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻢﻫ ﻥﺎﻨﭼ ﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻪﻣﺍﺩﺍ
،ﻪ ﻪـﻛ ﻱﺭﻮـﻃ ﻪﺑ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ 1378 ﻪـﻣﺎﻧﺰﻳﺭﺍﻭ ﻭ ﻲﺗﺍﺭﺩﺎـﺻ ،ﺭﻭﺎﻨﺷ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﺳ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻱﺯﺭﺍ ﻡﺎـﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ
ﺖﺷﺍﺩ . ﺭﺩ ﻱﺯﺭﺍ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻝﺎﺳ
1381 ﺖﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﻠﻛ ﻱﺮﮕﻧﺯﺎﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ،
ﻥﺎـﺴﻜﻳ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳ
ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺍﺮﺟﺍ ﻲﺧﺮﻧ ﻚﺗ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻭ ﺪﺷ
. ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻨﭼ ﺮﻫ 1372
ﺭﺎـﺑ ﻦﻴـﻟﻭﺍ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ
ﻡﻼﻋﺍ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻭﺎﻨﺷ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺖﺻﺮﻓ ﻲﻟﻭ ﺪﺷ
ﻡﻼـﻋﺍ ﺎـﺗ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ
ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻭ ﻡﻭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺍ ﻱ
ﻚـﻳ ﻩﺎـﺗﻮﻛ ﻝﺎـﻤﻋﺍ ﻪﻟﺎـﺳ
ﺪﺷ ﻥﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﻞﻤﻋ ﺭﺩ ، ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﻴﺳ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺮﺑ ﺖﺳﺎ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻜﻧ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ .
ﺎﻣﺍ ﻝﺎﺳ
1381 ﺍﺭ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻄﻘﻧ
ﻱ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻒﻄﻋ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ
ﺖﻓﺮﮔ . ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻪﻛ ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻝﺎﺳ
ﺎﻫ ﺲـﭘ ﻱ ﺶﻴـﭘ ﻭ ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺯﺍ 1381
ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﺑ ﺩﻮ ﻩ،
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺯﺎـﺠﻣ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺁ
ﺭﺩ ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺎـﻫ ﻱ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴـﭘ 1381
ﻣ ﻭ ﺮﻔـﺻ ﺭﺍﺪـﻘ ﺭﺩ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ 1381 ﻚﻳ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ .
2 ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ـ )
ﺱﺭﻮﺑ (
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ،ﮓﻨﺟ ﻭ ﺏﻼﻘﻧﺍ ﻉﻮﻗﻭ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺭﺎـﺑ ﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺍﺭ
ﺪﻧﺎﺸﻛ ﺩﻮﻛﺭ ﻪﺑ .
ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﺯﺎﻏﺁ ﺎﺑ ،ﮓﻨﺟ ﻥﺎﻳﺎﭘ ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ ﻲﭘ ﻭ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﻞﻳﺪـﻌﺗ
ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ
، ﺎﻣﺍﺪﻗﺍ ﺖﺳﻮﻴﭘ ﻉﻮﻗﻭ ﻪﺑ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻖﻧﻭﺭ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺗ .
ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ 1368 ﻲﺗﺎﻣﺍﺪـﻗﺍ
ﺎﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﻴﻬﺴﺗ ﻭ ﻊﻳﺮﺴﺗ ﺖﻬﺟ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺭﺮـﻘﻣ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﺡﻼﺻﺍ ﻞﻴﺒﻗ ﺯﺍ ﺭﺍﺩ
ﻦﻴﻳﺁ ﻭ ﻪﻣﺎﻧ ﻩﺰﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣ ،ﻲﻳﺍﺮﺟﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺮﻛ
ﻙﺭﺍﺪﺗ ﻭ ﺺﺼﺨﺘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﺭﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ،ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻥﺩ
ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﺖﻓﺮﮔ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻲﺷﺯﻮﻣﺁ ﻱﺎﻫ .
ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ 1369 ﻪﻟﺎﺳ ﻩﺩ ﺩﻮﻛﺭ ﻱ
ﺖﻓﺎﻳ ﻥﺎﻳﺎﭘ ﺱﺭﻮﺑ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ
