بررسی آثار رفاهی افزایش قیمت گروه‌های کالایی در خانوارهای شهری کشور

ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻲﻫﺎﻓﺭ ﺭﺎﺛﺁ

ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ

ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺮﻬﺷ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ

ﻲﺣﻼﻓ ﺯﻭﺮﻴﻓ

١

،ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺰﻳﺮﺒﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ

ffallahi@Tabrizu.ac.ir

ﻩﺩﺍﺯ ﺪﻤﺤﻣ ﺰﻳﻭﺮﭘ

٢

،ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ

ﺮﺒﺗ ﻳ ﺰ

pmohamadzadeh@yahoo.com

ﺪﻳﺮﻓ ﻲﺘﻤﻜﺣ ﺪﻤﺻ

٣

،ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ

ﻪﻴﻣﻭﺭﺍ

hekmat188@yahoo.com

ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :

13 /4 / 89 ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :

3/

2/

92

ﻩﺪﻴﻜﭼ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻲﻫﺎﻓﺭ ﺭﺎﺛﺁ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ

ﺎﻫ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺪﻨﻤﺸﻳﺪﻧﺍ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻩﺭﺍﻮﻤﻫ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻱ

ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺬﮔ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺍﺭﺍ ﺵﻼﺗ

ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﺵﻭﺭ

ﺎـﻫ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ

ﺩﺮﺧ

، ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ

ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ

ﺎﻫ ﺩﺯﺍﺩﺮـﭙﺑ ﺎـﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻩﺎﻓﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱ .

ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱﺍ 8 ﻲـﻃ ﻱﺮﻬـﺷ ﻱﺎـﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺡﺮـﻃ ﻲﻳﻻﺎـﻛ ﻩﻭﺮـﮔ

ﻝﺎﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻱ 86 - 1373 ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺖﻬﺟ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ

ﺎﻫ ﻲـﻄﺧ ﺝﺭﺎـﺨﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻱ

) (LES

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ4

. ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺵﺎـﻌﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪـﺣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ

ﻩﻭﺮـﮔ ﺎـﻫ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱ

ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ

، ﺶﺸﻛ ﺎﻫ ﻪﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﻱﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲـﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱ ﻱ

ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﺎـﻫ ﻲﻫﺎـﻓﺭ ﻱ

ﺭﺩ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺒﺟ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ

ﺷ ﻡﺍﺪﻗﺍ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪ

. ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ

ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻲﻫﺎﻓﺭ ﻱ ﺪﻫﺩ

ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻩﺎﻓﺭ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻦﻳ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ

ﺎﻫ ﻪـﺑ ﺐـﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ

ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻛﺍﺭﻮﺧ ﻭ ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﻱ ﻲﻧﺪﻴﻣﺎﺷﺁ ،ﺎﻫ

ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻖﻠﻌﺗ ﺕﺎﻴﻧﺎﺧﺩ ﻭ ﺎﻫ .

ﻱﺪﻨﺑ ﻪﻘﺒﻃ :JEL

D12, D60, I31

1 - ﻝﻮﺌــﺴﻣ ﻩﺪﻨــﺴﻳﻮﻧ

، ،ﺩﺎــﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﺪﻜــﺸﻧﺍﺩ ،ﺰــﻳﺮﺒﺗ ﻩﺎﮕــﺸﻧﺍﺩ ،ﺰــﻳﺮﺒﺗ ﻲﻧﺎــﮔﺭﺯﺎﺑ ﻭ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪــﻣ

. ﻦــﻔﻠﺗ 339226 - 0411 ، ﺲﻛﺎــﻓ

3356013 - 0411

2 - ،ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ ،ﺰﻳﺮﺒﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ،ﺰﻳﺮﺒﺗ ﻲﻧﺎﮔﺭﺯﺎﺑ ﻭ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ

. ﻦﻔﻠﺗ 339226 - 0411

، ﺲﻛﺎﻓ 3356013 - 0411

3 - ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ ﻭ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ ،ﻪﻴﻣﻭﺭﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ،ﻪﻴﻣﻭﺭﺍ .

ﻦﻔﻠﺗ 2777040 - 0441

، ﺲﻛﺎﻓ 2777022 - 0441

4- Linear Expenditure System

ﻩژﺍﻭ ﺪﻴﻠﻛ :

،ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ،ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺒﺟ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ،ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﺎﻓﺭ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ

ﺎﻫ ﻱﺎـﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ،ﻲﻳﻻﺎـﻛ ﻱ

ﻱﺮﻬﺷ 1 - ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ

ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺭﺍﻮﻤﻫ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﺎﻓﺭ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻱﺩﺮﺑﺭﺎـﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﻜﻳ

ﺚـﺣﺎﺒﻣ ﻦﻳﺮـﺗ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ .

ﻡﺎﻤﺗ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ ﻩﺎـﻓﺭ ﺮـﺑ ﻲﻋﻮـﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ

ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺭﺍﺬﮔ .

،ﻲـﺷﺯﻮﻣﺁ ﺕﺎﺣﻼـﺻﺍ ،ﻪـﻧﺍﺭﺎﻳ ﺖـﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ،ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻊﺿﻭ

ﺮﺑ ﻪﻣﺎﻧ ﺎﻫ ﻡﺎـﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﻮـﮔﺮﮔﺩ ،ﻲـﻄﻴﺤﻣ ﺖـﺴﻳﺯ ﺕﺍﺭﺮـﻘﻣ ،ﻲﺘـﺷﺍﺪﻬﺑ ﻱ ﻦﻴﻣﺄـﺗ

،ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ

ﺪﻨﻤﻓﺪﻫ ﻪﻧﺍﺭﺎﻳ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﻲﮕﻤﻫ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻭ ﺎﻫ

ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺎـﻫ ﺯﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﺪﻨﺘـﺴﻫ ﻲﻳ ﻩﺍﺭ

ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﺎﻓﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻥﻮﮔﺎﻧﻮﮔ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ

ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ . ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻢﻬﻣ ﺮـﺗ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﻲﻠﻣﺍﻮـﻋ ﻦﻳ

ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻡﺰﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ

ﺎﻫ ﻞـﻤﻋ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﺎـﻓﺭ ﺮـﺑ ﺖـﻟﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻲـﻣ

ﺪـﻨﻛ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ

ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺎﻫ ﺤﻴﺟﺮﺗ ،ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ ﺕﺎ

ﻭ ﻥﺎﮔﺪـﻨﻨﻛ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ

ﺎـﻫ ﻲﺒـﺴﻧ ﻱ

ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻲـﻣ ﻝﻮـﺤﺘﻣ ﻊﺑﺎـﻨﻣ ﺺﻴـﺼﺨﺗ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺮـﻛ

ﻮـﺷ ﺩ . ﺖـﻟﻭﺩ ﻝﺎـﻤﻋﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺭﺍﻮـﻤﻫ ﺎـﻫ

ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻨﻛ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨ

ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺬﮔ ﻱﺭﺍ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺕﻼﻳﺪـﻌﺗ ﻭ ﺎﻫ

ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﻩﺎﻓﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻧﻮﮕﭼ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ

ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻧﺪ .

ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛﺭﺩ ﺭﺩ

ﻝﺎﺣ ﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺯﺍ ﻚﻳ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ

ﺍﺮﮔ ﻪﺑ ﻚﻳ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻨﺘﺒﻣ ﺮـﺑ

،ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺶﺨﺑ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻁﺮﺷ

ﻚﻔﻨﻳﻻ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺎﻤﺷ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ.

ﺮﻴﺴﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺴﻳﺎﺑ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ

،ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺯﺍ

ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﻱ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ

ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺎﻫ

، ﻪﺑ ءﺍﺮﺟﺍ ﺍﺬﮔ ﺘﺷ ﻪ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﻠﺌﺴﻣ . ﻱﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻩﮋﻳﻭ ﺑﺎ

ﻥﺁ ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻣ

،ﺪﻧﺍ

ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﻫﺎﻓﺭ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

، ﺍﺮﭼ ﻪﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﻞﺒﻗ ﺯﺍ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ

، ﻢﺠﺣ ﻱﺩﺎـﻳﺯ

ﺯﺍ ﻪﻧﺍﺭﺎﻳ ﺎﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﺪﻧﻭﺮﻬﺷ ﻪﺑ

ﺭﻮﻃ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺎﻳ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ

ﻲـﻣ ﻮـﺷ ﺩ.

ﺯﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺎـﺟ ﻪـﻛ

ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ ﺎﺑ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻲﺠﻳﺭﺪﺗ ﻪﻧﺍﺭﺎﻳ ﺎﻫ ﻭ ﻑﺬﺣ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻚﻳ ﺪﻨﻳﺁﺮﻓ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ ﻥﺎـﻜﻣﺍ

ﺮﻳﺬﭘ

،ﺖﺳﺍ ﺬﻟ ﺍ ﺍ ﺯﺍﺪﻧ ﻩ ﺮﻴﮔ ﻱ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻲﻫﺎـﻓﺭ ﻥﺍﺪﻧﻭﺮﻬـﺷ ﻪـﺑ

ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ ﻪـﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻱ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻲﺘﻳﺎﻤﺣ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺒﺟ ﻲﻋﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ

ﺰﺋﺎﺣ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺎﻤﺷ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻭﺭ

. ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺎﻳ ﻡﺪـﻋ ﺖـﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ

،ﻪﻧﺍﺭﺎﻳ ﺖﻴﻟﻮﻤﺷ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ

ﻪﻧﺍﺭﺎﻳ ﻪﭼ ﺩﺭﻮﻣﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻭ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻪـﻧﺍﺭﺎﻳ ﺮـﻴﮕﺑ ﻭ ﻪـﭼ ﺭﺩ

ﻩﺯﻮﺣ ﻱ

،ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ

،ﻪﻧﺍﺭﺎﻳ ﻩﻮﻴﺷ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻪﻧﺍﺭﺎﻳ ﻭ ...

ﺯﺍ ﺳ ﺌ ﻲﺗﻻﺍﻮ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﻛ

ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺍﺭ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻝﻮﻐﺸﻣ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ )

،ﺩﺍﮋﻧ ﻱﻭﺮﺴﺧ

.(1388

ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗﺎﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ

ﺶﻴﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺮﺗ ﺎﻫ

ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻡﺰﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻱ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ

ﺎﻫ ﻲﺒـﺴﻧ ﻱ

ﻲﻣ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ

،ﺩﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺶﺠﻨـﺳ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﺎﻓﺭ ﺮﺑ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻡﺯﻻ ﺍﺬﻟ

ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ .

ﺭﺩ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺷﺎﻧ ﻲﻫﺎـﻓﺭ ﺕﺍﺮـﺛﺍ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﺘﺳﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ

ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱ ﻲﻣ

ﺯﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺩ.

ﻲﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ

ﻱ ،ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻝﺎﻤﻋﺍ

ﻪﻧﺍﺭﺎﻳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻪﻧﺍﺭﺎﻳ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺪﻨﻤﻓﺪﻫ ﻭ ﺎﻫ

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ . ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﻲﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻡﺭﻮـﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻦﻣﺰﻣ .

ﻥﺁ ﻪﭼ ﺟﻮﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﻩﺎـﻓﺭ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺐ

ﻲﻣ ﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻮﺷ

ﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﻭ ﻙﺍﺭﻮﺧ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻤﻫ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺩ

ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺍﺪﻴﭘ ﻱ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﺎﻓﺭ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻡﺯﻻ ﻭ ﺪﻨﻛ

ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺎﻫ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﺹﺎﺧ ﻱ

ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ .

ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ

ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﺎـﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻲﻫﺎـﻓﺭ ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻱﺮـﻴﮔ

) ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ

ﺎﻫ ( ﻲﻓﺮـﺼﻣ ﺭﺎـﺘﻓﺭ ﺮـﺑ ﻲـﻨﺘﺒﻣ ﻪـﻛ ﻲﻫﺎﻓﺭ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺎـﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ

ﻲﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ

. ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ

ﺎﻫ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺖﺤﺗ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱ

ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻲﻄﺧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ )

(LES ﺷ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻩﺪ ﺶـﺸﻛ ﺎـﻫ ﻲـﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱ ﻱﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻊﻃﺎـﻘﺘﻣ ،

ﻲﻣ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻮﺷ

ﺪﻧ . ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻦﻤﺿ ﻪﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ

ﺎﻫ ،ﻲـﻄﺧ ﺝﺭﺎـﺨﻣ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﻲﻫﺎﻓﺭ ﻱ

ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ

ﺎﻫ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻩﺎﻓﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﺶﺠﻨﺳ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻨﻛ

ﻲﻣ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ . ﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﺒﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻭ ﻲﻄﺧ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻢ

ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎـﻫ ﻱ

،ﻲﻫﺎﻓﺭ ﻪﻨﻴﺸﻴﭘ ﻱ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ

ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﻪﻨﻴﻣﺯ

ﻮـﺷ ﺯﺍ ﺲـﭘ ﻪـﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺩ

ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﺵﻭﺭ

ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ،ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻲﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﺵﺎـﻌﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪـﺣ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘـﺳﺍ ﻞﻣﺎـﺷ ﻲـﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻭ ﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺶﺸﻛ

ﺎﻫ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ

ﺎﻫ ﻝﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺒﺟ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻱ

ﺭﺩ ﮔ ﻩﻭﺮ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻮﺷ

ﺩ . ﺘﻧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻊﻤﺟ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺎﻬ ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻭ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ

ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ ﻱﺮـﻴﮔ

ﻲﻣ ﺮﻴﮔ ﺩ.

2 - ﻭ ﻲﻄﺧ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ

ﺎﻫ ﻥﺁ ﻲﻫﺎﻓﺭ ﻱ

2 - 1 - ﻲﻄﺧ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﺒﻣ

ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻲﻄﺧ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺖـﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ

ﻣ ﺺﺨـﺸ ﻲـﻣ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻪـﺑ

ﻪﻧﻮﮔ ﻱﺍ ﻲﺣﺍﺮﻃ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺍ ﺖﺳ ﻪﻛ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﻡﺎﻤﺗ ﺎﻳ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪـﺤﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻪـﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻱ ﺍﺭ ﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻦﻴﻣﺄـﺗ

ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻛ . ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻲﺘﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﻥﻮﺘـﺳﺍ - ﻱﺮـﮔ

١

ﺕﺮﻬﺷ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ . ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻥﻮﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺮﮔ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺮﻳﺯ

ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ .

) 1 n (

i

E

i

¦

₁

¹

^{J ti 0qi t JiU E}

¦

^{iLog(qi Ji)}

1- Stone-Geary

ﻪﻛ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ n ،ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ qi

ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ

ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻡﺍ i i ، ﺢﻄﺳ J ﻞﻗﺍﺪـﺣ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ

ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻡﺍ i ، U ﺢﻄﺳ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ i ﻭ ﻢﻬﺳ E ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﻻﺎﻛ ﺮﻫ

، ﺲﭘ ﻦﺘﻓﺮـﮔ ﺮﻈﻧﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ

ﺢﻄـﺳ

ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ

، ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺖـﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ

ﻲـﻣ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ . ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﺖـﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ

ﻕﻮـﻓ ﻲﺘـﺴﻳﺎﺑ ﻁﻭﺮـﺸﻣ

ﻪﺑ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ

ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﻱ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﺮﻳﺯ :

) 2

n (

i i i

p q M

¦1

ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻭ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﺎﻳ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺢﻄﺳM

Pi

ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻲﻣ ﻡﺍi

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﺎﺑ

ﻪﺑ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ،ﻕﻮﻓ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻥﺪﺷ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ

ﺪﻳﺁ .

) 3 ( i , j = 1 , 2 , … , n

i i i i j j

i

q h (p, M) (M p ) p

J E

¦

J

ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﺏﺮﺿ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ

ﻱ ﺭﺩ ﻕﻮﻓ Pi

ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺳﺩ ﻻﺎﻛ n

ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻳﺁ

ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻑﺮﺻ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻥﺁ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ

ﻱﺍﺮﺑ t ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻡﺍi ) E_it ( ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ،ﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎﺗ

ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ )

ﻞﻛ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ (

ﺖﺳﺍ

١.

) 4

it it it it i i t jt j ( E p q J Ep (M

¦

p J )

ﻑﺮﺻ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ،ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﻭﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ

ﻲﻣ ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ ءﺰﺟ ﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻻﺎﻛ ﻦﻴﻣﺍi ﺩﻮﺷ

:

1 ( ﻪﺑ ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻑﺮﺻ ﻻﺎﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻠﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ءﺰﺟ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ

ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻣﺍﺰﻟﺍ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ

. (pi iJ )

2 ( ﺝﺭﺎـﺨﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﻁﻮـﺑﺮﻣ ءﺰﺟ )

ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ( ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲﺟﺭﺎـﺨﻣ ﺮﮕﻧﺎـﺸﻧ ﻪـﻛ ﻲﺘـﺸﻴﻌﻣﺍﺮﻓ

ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺮﺑ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺭﺎﻴﺘﺧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻱﻭﺭ

ﻦﻴﻣﺍi ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻑﺮﺻ ﻻﺎﻛ .

ﺎـﺑ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ

ﻞﻛ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻪﺑ )

ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ( ﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺎﻫ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ، ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ، ﺶﻳﻮـﺧ ﻲﺘﺸﻴﻌﻣﺍﺮﻓ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ

j j ﺍﺭ (M

¦

p J ) ﻲﻣ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﻪﺑ

ﻲﻳﺎـﻬﻧ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ Ei

( ) E w w

ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻴﻣﺍi

ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻻﺎﻛ ﻦ Ei

ﺖﺳﺍ . ،ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ Ei

ﻲﻳﺎـﻬﻧ ﻞـﻴﻣ ﺍﺭ

ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻪﺑ )

ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ( ﻲﻣ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻲﺘﺸﻴﻌﻣﺍﺮﻓ ﺩﺮﻛ ﺮﻴﺴﻔﺗ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ

٢.

1 - ،ﺍﺭﺁﺮﻬﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻤﺸﻳﺮﺑﺍ 1376

ﺹ ، 161

2 - ،ﻲﻤﺷﺎﻫ ﻭ ﺩﺍﮋﻧ ﻱﻭﺮﺴﺧ 1374

ﺹ ، 84 .

ﺶﺸﻛ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻄﺧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻱ

١ﺪﺷﺎﺑ :

ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﺸﻛ )

ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺨﻣ ( ) 5 (

iM i i i

M p q

§ · K E ¨ ¸

© ¹

ﻱﺩﻮﺧ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﺸﻛ

) 6 (

^{i i}

ii i

i i

p p q

ª J º

H « E »

¬1 ¼ 1

ﻊﻃﺎﻘﺘﻣ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﺸﻛ

) 7 (

i

ij j j

i i

p q p

H E u J

2 - 2 - ﻲﻄﺧ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻫﺎﻓﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ )

(LES

ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻧﻮﮔﺎﻧﻮﮔ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲ ﻩ

ﺮﻴﮔ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻩﺎﻓﺭ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻱ

ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ

ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺒﺟ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ )

(CV ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ،٢

) (EV ﻭ ٣

ﺮﻛ ﻩﺭﺎﺷﺍ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺩ

. ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺒﺟ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ )

(CV ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺮﮔﺍ ﺪﻫﺩ

ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ) ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ( ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺍﺮﺟﺍ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﭼ

ﺭﺪﻗ ﻪﺑ ) ﺯﺍ ( ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ )

ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ( ﺎﺗ ﺩﻮﺷ

ﺪﻨﺑﺎﻳ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺒﻗ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻪﺑ .

ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ )

( EV ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺮﮔﺍ ﺪﻫﺩ

) ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ( ﺍﺮـﺟﺍ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ

ﺩﻮﺸﻧ ﻪﭼ ﺭﺪﻗ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ) ﻪﺑ ( ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ )

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ( ﻪﻳﻮﻧﺎﺛ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺎﺗ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻱ

ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻌﺑ

ﺪﻨﺑﺎﻳ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ .

ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ

، ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺎـﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺯﺍ ﺪـﻳﺎﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻫﺩ

ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﺳﺮﺑ ﻲﺘﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺸﻧ ﺍﺮﺟﺍ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺎﺗ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺍﺮﺟﺍ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻲﻣ

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺁ ﻪﺑ ﺪﺷ ﺪﻧﺪﻴﺳﺭ

. ﺰﻴﻧ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻒـﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻱﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ

ﻲﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ

ﺎﻫ ﺖـﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﺭﺍﺪـﻘﻣ ﻥﺎـﻤﻫ ،ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻱ ﺩﺎـﺠﻳﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻪـﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺢﻄـﺳ

ﻲﻣ ﻨﻛ ﺪ.

ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻥﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﻲﻫﺎﻓﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ 4 ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﺷﻮﻧ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ

:

) 8

* (

* i

i

i

q M p E

ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ

*i i i

q J q

* ﻭ

j j j

M M

¦

p J

ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ .

1 - ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱ

ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﻦﻤﻴﻠﺳﺍ ﻭ ﻱﺪﻳﺮﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻄﺧ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺹﻮﺼﺧ ﺭﺩ )

2006 ( ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﻌﺟﺍﺮﻣ .

2- Compensation Variations 3- Equivalent Variations

ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔﺎﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ

*i

ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺭﺩ q ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ

ﻪـﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ) 9 (

ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻳﺁ :

* i i

i i

V log M p

§E · E

¦

¨¨© ¸¸¹

) 9 (

i

i

i *

i i

* i

i i

log M

p log M

p

E E

§E ·

¨ ¸

¨ ¸

© ¹

­ § ·E ½

° °

® ¨ ¸ ¾

° © ¹ °

¯ ¿

–

–

ﻥﺎﻨﭼ ﻪﭼ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ،ﺩﻮﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺖﺧﺍﻮﻨﻜﻳ ﻞﻳﺪﺒﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻪﺑ

ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﺮـﻳﺯ

ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﺷﻮﻧ

ﺩﻮﺷ :

) 10 (

* i i

i i

V M

p

§ ·E E

¨ ¸© ¹

–

ﻥﺎﻨﭼ

i i ﻪﭼ

i

A

¦

pJ

i ﻭ

i i i

B p

§ ·E

¨ ¸E

–

© ¹ ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

:

) 11 (M A) (

V B

ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﻪﻛ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ

ﺖـﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﻥﺪﻴـﺳﺭ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺭﺩU

ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻲﻣ ﺲﻜﻌﻨﻣ ﺍﺭP

ﻨﻛ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺯﺍ ﺪ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻱ

ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻳﺁ

: ( 12 )

E(p, U) A BU

ﻲﻄﺧ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺒﺟ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻥﺎﻨﭼ ﻪﭼ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ،ﻪـﻧﺍﺭﺎﻳ ﺎـﻳ ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺮﺛﺍ P₀

ﻪـﺑ P₁ ﺪـﺳﺮﺑ

، ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ

ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺒﺟ ) Compensation Variations (

ﻲﻣ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ

:

) 13 CV E(p , U ) E(p , U ) (

A B U M ^{1 0 0 0}

1 1 0 0

ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﻅﺎﺤﻟ ﺎﺑ (M A )

U B

0 0

0 0

ﻢﻳﺭﺍﺩ :١

1- Creedy & Sleeman, 2006, pp 338-339

) 14 A B M (

CV A M

A B A

ª § ·º

« ¨ ¸»

© ¹

¬ ¼

1 1 0

0 0

0 0 0 1

ﻲﻄﺧ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ )

(EV ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ

ﺩﻮﺷ :

) 15 ( EV E(p , U ) E(p , U )_{1 1 0 1}

M₁(A₀B U )_{0 1}

ﻪﻛ ﺎﺑ ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ (M A )

U B

1 1

1 1

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﺖﺷﻮﻧ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭEV

١:

) 16 ( M A

EV M A B

B A A

ª § ·º

« ¨ ¸»

© ¹

¬ ¼

1 1

1 0 0

1 0 0

1

3 - ﻪﻨﻴﺸﻴﭘ ﻱ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ

ﻲﻄﺧ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ )

(LES ﺭﺎـﺑ ﻦﻴـﻟﻭﺍ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ

ﻪﺑ ﺕﺮﺑﺍﺭ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻪﺻﻼﺧ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ )

1980 ( ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ

،ﻩﺪﺷ ﺕﺎـﻴﺋﺰﺟ ﺎـﺑ ﻝﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻥﺎـﻴﺑ ﻲﻟﻭ

ﮓﻨﻴﻛ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻞﻣﺎﻛ )

1983

٢( ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺝﻮـﺳ ﻭ ﺲﭘﺍ ﻭ

) 1989

٣( ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ

ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻝﺁ ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ًﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ

٤ ) AIDS ( ﻥﻮـﭼﻭﺮﺗ ﻭ ﻦﻴﺗﺮـﻓ ﻭ )

1993

٥( ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ

ﻲﻄﺧ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ )

(،LES ﻪﺑ ﺩﺮﺑﺭﺎﻛ ﻭ ﻪـﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻝﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻡﻮﻬﻔﻣ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ

ﺎـﻫ ﻱ

ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻫﺎﻓﺭ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ

ﺍ ﺪﻧ

٦. ﺕﻻﺎـﻘﻣ ،ﺕﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ ﻧﻮﮔﺎـﻧﻮﮔ

ﻩﺯﻮـﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻲ

ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻭ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻲﻫﺎﻓﺭ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻪﻛ

ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﺮﻛﺫ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ

ﻥﺁ ﺎﻫ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ .

ﻱﺪﻳﺮﻛ ﻭ ﻝﻮﻧﺮﻛ )

1997

٧(

، ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱ

ﺩﻮـﺧ ﻚـﻳﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺩﺮﺑﺭﺎـﻛ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪـﺑ

ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻩ ﺮﻴﮔ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺒﺟ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻱ ﺪـﻧﺍ

. ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ

ﺵﻭﺭ ﺪﻴـﺴﻛﺍ ﻱﺩ ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻲﻫﺎﻓﺭ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﻄﺧ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻚﻳﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻩﺎﻓﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ .

1- Creedy, 1998,p144 2- King

3- Apps & Savage

4- Almost Ideal Demand System 5- Fortin & Truchon.

6- Creedy, 1998, p137 7- Cornwell & Creedy

ﻱﺪﻳﺮﻛ ) 1998 (،

ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺍ

ﻱ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻲـﻄﺧ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺯﺍ

) (LES ﻥﺎـﻴﺑ ﻪـﺑ

ﻪﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻲﮕﻧﻮﮕﭼ ﻱ

ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺷﺎﻧ ﻝﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﻭ ﻲـﻧﺍﺮﺒﺟ ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺕﺍ

ﻭ ﻪـﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ

ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻩﺎﻓﺭ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺍﺭ

ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻩﺪـﻣﺁ ﺖـﺳﺩ ﻪـﺑ ﻝﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻲﺑﺎﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ

ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ

ﺖﺳﺍ . ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻲﻫﺎـﻓﺭ ﺕﺍﺮـﺛﺍ ﻦﻴـﻤﺨﺗ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻚﻳ ﻒﻴﺻﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ

ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺒﺟ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻤﻫ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻲﻣ

ﺩﺯﺍﺩﺮﭘ .

ﻱﺰﻴﺗ ) 2005

١(

، ﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪ ﻱﺍ ﻦﺑﺮـﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ ﻱﺩ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻲﻌﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻭ ﻲﻫﺎﻓﺭ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ

ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻳﺎﻴﻟﺎﺘﻳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺮﺑ .

ﻪﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱ

ﺯﺍ ﻲﻫﺎـﻓﺭ ﺕﺍﺮـﺛﺍ

ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺒﺟ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻭ ﻲﮔﺪﻧﺯ .

ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ

ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ًﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻝﺁ

) (AIDS ﻭ٢

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺎـﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻲـﻃ

ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺎـﻫ ﻱ 1996 -

1985 ﺭﺩ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ

ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺎﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ

. ، ^٣(2006 )ﻦﻤﻴﻠﺳﺍ ﻭ ﻱﺪﻳﺮﻛ

ﻲـﻄﺧ ﺝﺭﺎـﺨﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺕﺍﺮـﺛﺍ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪـﺑ

ﻞﻴﻤﺤﺗ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ

ﻱﺩ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻦﺑﺮـﻛ

ﺪﻨﻠﻳﺯﻮﻴﻧ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ

ﻪـﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺪـﻧﺍ

. ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺮـﺑ ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻲﻫﺎـﻓﺭ ﺕﺍﺮـﺛﺍ ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ

ﻱﺩ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ ﻱﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﻥﺁ

ﺎـﻫ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺰـﻴﻧ

ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ

.

ﻢﻟﺎﺳ ﻭ ﻱﺩﻭﺍﺩ )

1381 (،

ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻳﺰﻨﺑ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺍ

ﺑ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎـﺧ ﻩﺎـﻓﺭ ﺮ

ﻚﻫﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ

، ﻱﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻦﻳﺰﻨﺑ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻦﻤﺿ AIDS

ﻚﻫﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻪـﺑ ،ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱ

ﻲﻫﺎـﻓﺭ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻭEV

ﻲـﻃ ﺭﺩCV ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ

ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ 82 - 1375 ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺪﻧﺍ . ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻲﻣ

ﺪﻫﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻥﺎـﻳﺯ ﺎـﻫ ﻞـﻴﻤﺤﺗ ﻱ

ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱ ﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻞﻛ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻦﻳﺰﻨﺑ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍ

ﻚـﻫﺩ ﺎـﭘ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻳ ﻦﻴ

ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺯﺍ ﻦﻳﺰـﻨﺑ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺫﺎﺨﺗﺍ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻱﻻﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻱﺭﺎﻜﻫﺍﺭ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺸﻧ ﻪﻴﺻﻮﺗ ﻥﺁ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ .

ﺩﺍﮋﻧ ﻱﻭﺮﺴﺧ )

1388 ( ﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪ ﻱﺍ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻩ ﺮـﻴﮔ ﻪـﻧﺍﺭﺎﻳ ﻑﺬـﺣ ﺕﺍﺮـﺛﺍ ﻱ ﻱ

ﻱﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺮﻬﺷ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺮﺑ ﻲﺳﺎﺳﺍ .

ﻱﺎـﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ

ﺭﺩ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺮﻬﺷ 5

ﻩﺪـﻳﺍ ًﺎـﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺰﻳﺎﻤﺘﻣ ﻭ ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻝﺁ

ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻭ ﻲـﻧﺍﺮﺒﺟ ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ،ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﻫﺎﻓﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻭ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺖـﺳﺭﺩ

ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱ

1- Tiezzi

2- Almost Ideal Demand System 3- Creedy & Sleeman

ﻲﮔﺪﻧﺯ ﻤﻴﻗ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ١

ﺕﺎـﻘﺒﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎـﺒﻧ ﻦـﻏﻭﺭ ﻭ ﺮﻜﺷ ﻭ ﺪﻨﻗ ،ﻥﺎﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺖ

ﺞﻨﭘ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻪﻧﺎﮔ .

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ،ﺪﻫﺩ

ﻩ ﺮﻴﮔ ﻲﻫﺎـﻓﺭ ﺕﺍﺮـﺛﺍ ﻱ

ﻩﺯﻮﺣ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻱ

ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮـﺑ ﺩﻭﺪـﺤﻣ ﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊـﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﺶﻴـﺑ

ﺮـﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ

ﺑ ﻝﺁ ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ًﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻲﻫﺎـﻓﺭ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮ

ﺖﺳﺍ . ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺭﺎﺑ ﻦﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ

ﺎـﻫ ﺝﺭﺎـﺨﻣ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﻲﻫﺎـﻓﺭ ﻱ

ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻄﺧ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ

ﺎـﻫ ﺎـﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻩﺎـﻓﺭ ﺮـﺑ ﻲﻳﻻﺎـﻛ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ .

4 - ﺪﺘﻣ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱژﻮﻟ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺶﻫﻭﮋـﭘ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻱﺍ 8 ﻲﻳﻻﺎـﻛ ﻩﻭﺮـﮔ

"

ﻲﻛﺍﺭﻮـﺧ ،ﺎـﻫ

ﻲﻧﺪﻴﻣﺎﺷﺁ ﺕﺎﻴﻧﺎﺧﺩ ﻭ ﺎﻫ

"

،

"

ﺶﻔﻛ ﻭ ﻙﺎﺷﻮﭘ

"

،

"

،ﺕﺎﺤﻳﺮﻔﺗ ﻲﻣﺮﮔﺮﺳ

ﺎﻫ ﻞﻴﺼﺤﺗ ﻭ

"

ﻭ ﻡﺯﺍﻮﻟ ،

ﻪﻴﺛﺎﺛﺍ

"

،

"

ﻪﻗﺮﻔﺘﻣ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻭ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ

"

،

"

ﻥﺎـﻣﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺖﺷﺍﺪﻬﺑ

"

،

"

ﻞـﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞـﻤﺣ

"

ﻭ

"

ﻦﻜـﺴﻣ

"

ﺸﻛ ﻱﺮﻬﺷ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺡﺮﻃ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮ

ﻱ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻲﻫﺎﻓﺭ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ

ﺭﺩ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱ ﻝﺎﺳ

ﺎﻫ ﻱ 86 - 1373 ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺩﻮﺷ

. ﺎﻫﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻄﺧ ﺝﺭﺎـﺨﻣ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻳﻻﺎـﻛ ﻱ

) (LES ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻮﺷ

ﺩ . ﻝﺪﻣ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻡﺯﻻ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍLES

ﻊـﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫE

ﻚﻫﺩ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺖﺸﻫ ﻞﮕﻧﺍ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻱﺍ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻱ 86 - 73 ﺐـﻟﺎﻗ ﺭﺩ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻩﺩﺯ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ .

ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﻛ ﺮﻫ ،ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ E

ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ

ﻱ 3 ﻲﻣ ﻦﻳﺰﮕﻳﺎﺟ ﺩﻮﺷ

. ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺝﺭﺎـﺨﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻣﺍﺩﺍ

ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪـﺷ

ﺯﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺮﻫ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ

ﺎﻫ ﺖﺸﻫ ﻱ ﻪﻧﺎﮔ ﻱ ﻲﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻝﺎﺳ

ﺎﻫ ،ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻱ Ji

ﺵﺎـﻌﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﻪﻛ

ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻡﺍi ﻛ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻳﻻﺎ ﻲﻣ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ،ﺪﻫﺩ

ﻮﺷ ﺩ

. ﺎـﻫ ﻩﻭﺮـﮔ ﺵﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻳﻻﺎـﻛ ﻱ

ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎـﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻱﺍ

ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻱ ﻝﺎﺳ

ﺎﻫ ﻱ 86 - 73 ﻪـﺑ ﺭﺎـﻛ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺭ .

ﺯﺍ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻥﺩﺭﻭﺁ Ji (J₁ J₈ ﺎﺗ

( ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻦﻴﻌﻣ ﺎﺑ ، ﺮﻌﻣ ﻪﻛpi

ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻑ

ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻱ

i iﻥﺍﻮﺗ

i

PJ

¦

ﺍﺭ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎـﺧ ﺵﺎـﻌﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪـﺣ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﺎﻳ

ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺮﻛ ﺩ . ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻦﻤﺿ ﻪﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱ

ﺶﺸﻛ ﺎﻫ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻭ ﻊﻃﺎﻘﺘﻣ ،ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱ )

ﻱﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ (

1- True Cost of Living index

ﻂـﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ،ﻲـﻄﺧ ﺝﺭﺎـﺨﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ 14

ﻭ 16

، ﻩﺎـﻓﺭ ﺮـﺑ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺕﺍﺮـﺛﺍ

ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺪﻴﺠﻨﺳ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺒﺟ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ

.

5 - ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ

5 - 1 - ﻞﮕﻧﺍ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ

ﺎﻫ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻱ

ﺯﺍ ﻚـﻳ ﺮـﻫ ﻞﮕﻧﺍ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﻭﺮـﮔ

ﺎـﻫ ﺖـﺸﻫ ﻱ ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪـﻧﺎﮔ

ﻲـﻌﺒﺗ ﻡﺮـﻓ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺍ

it i it t

C D E M ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ

ﻮـﺷ ﺩ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ Cit

، ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻚـﻫﺩ ﺝﺭﺎـﺨﻣ ﻩﻭﺮـﮔ ﻱﺍ

ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻭ ﻡﺍi Mt

، ﻚﻫﺩ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺖﺸﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

. . ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﻣﺁ ( 1 ) ﻝﻭﺪـﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺖﺸﻫ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺵﺯﺍﺮﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺮـﻛﺫ ﻪـﺑ ﻡﺯﻻ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ

. ﺭﺩ 8 ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ

ﻩﺪﺷ ﺎﺑ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻱ

1LR

، ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺽﺮﻋ ﺯﺍ ﺃﺪﺒﻣ ﻙﺮﺘـﺸﻣ ﺩﺭ

ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻭ ﺍﺮـﺑ ﻱ

ﺮـﻫ . ﺖـﺳﺍﻩﺪﺷﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔﺮﻈﻧﺭﺩﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣﺃﺪﺒﻣﺯﺍﺽﺮﻋ،ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﻝﺎﺳﺯﺍﻡﺍﺪﻛ ﻦﻴـﻋ ﺭﺩ

ﻦﻣﺯﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ،ﻝﺎﺣ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ2

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ ،ﺎـﻫ

ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺗﺍﺭﺎﻛ٣

ﻲﻣ4

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

، ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺬﻟ

ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﺩﻮﺷ

. ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻛﺫ ﻪﺑ ﻡﺯﻻ ﻱﺎـﻫE

ﻪـﺑ ﺖـﺳﺩ ﻪـﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪـﻣﺁ

ﻱﺪﻌﺑ ﻞﺣﺍﺮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﺎﻨﺒﻣ ﻲﻣ

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ .

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 1 - ﺎﺘﻧ ﻳ ﺞ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﻞﮕﻧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻻﺎﻛ ﻲﻳ

ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻻﺎﻛ i ﻲﻳ

R² E

ﻙﺎﺷﻮﭘ ﻭ

* ﺶﻔﻛ 07 / 0 96

/

0/99 0/04^* ﻞﻴﺼﺤﺗ ﻭﺎﻫﻲﻣﺮﮔﺮﺳ،ﺕﺎﺤﻳﺮﻔﺗ 0/93 0/15^* ﺕﺎﻴﻧﺎﺧﺩ ﻭﺎﻫﻲ ﻧﺪﻴﻣﺎﺷﺁ،ﺎﻫﻲ ﻛﺍﺭﻮﺧ

0/99 0/12^* ﻥﺎﻣﺭﺩ ﻭﺖﺷﺍﺪﻬﺑ

0/98 0/23^* ﻦﻜﺴﻣ

0/99 0/05^* ﻪﻴﺛﺎﺛﺍ ﻭﻡﺯﺍﻮﻟ

0/99 0/07^* ﻪﻗﺮﻔﺘﻣﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻭﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ

0/90 0/25^* ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭﻞﻤﺣ

0

:*

ﻨﻌﻣ ﻲ ﺭﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻢﻛ ﺮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻳ ﻚ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ .

ﺬﺧﺎﻣ : ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ

1- Likelihood Ratio. 2- Hausman Test 3- Fixed effect 4- Random effect

5 - 2 - ﺵﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ

ﺵﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ i )

(J ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺎﻫ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻳﻻﺎـﻛ ﻱ ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ

ﻱ 4 ﻲـﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺩﻮـﺷ

.

ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﺘﺷﻮﻧ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ :

) 17

i i i i j j (

C J EP (M

¦

PJ ) ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ Ji

ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ، Ei ﺭﺩ ﻞﮕﻧﺍ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺯ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ

ﻻﺎﺑ ﻱ ﻦﻳﺰﮕﻳﺎـﺟ

ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻲﺴﻳﻮﻧﺯﺎﺑ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ

ﺩﻮﺷ :

i i i i i j j

C EM J EP

¦

PJ

) 18

(

i i k k ik i

k

C EM

¦

⁸ P J I E

1

ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ :

i, j, k , ,..., t , ,...,

1 2 8

1 2 14

ﻭ i k

i k z Iik ®­

¯ 01

ﺽﺮﻓ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻝﺎﺣ ﺩﻮﺷ

ﻪﻛ :

) 19

(

it* it i t

*

it ik i

Y M M

X P I E

E

ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ

ﻻﺎﺑ ﻱ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪﺑ

* *

it i it

Y J X ﻲـﻣﺭﺩ

ﻦﻴـﻤﺨﺗ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻳﺁ

ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﺎﻄﺧ ءﺰﺟ ﻲﺘﺴﻳﺎﺑ ﻕﻮﻓ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﻓﺎﺿﺍ ﻥﺁ ﻪﺑ

:

) 20 (

* * *

it i it it

Y JX U

ﺑ ﻕﻮﻓ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺎ Ji

ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻮﺷ

ﺩ.

ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ )

20 ( ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ

ﻱ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺖﺸﻫ ﻲﻃ ﻱﺍ

ﻝﺎﺳ ﻱﺎـﻫ 86 -

73 ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻮﺷ

ﺩ . ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻱﺮـﻴﮔ

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﺯﺍ )

2 ( ﺮﻛﺫ ﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪ .

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 2 - ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﺵﺎﻌﻣ

i )

J

( ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻻﺎﻛ ﻲﻳ

ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻭ ﻙﺎﺷﻮﭘ

ﺶﻔﻛ ،ﺕﺎﺤﻳﺮﻔﺗ

ﻲﻣﺮﮔﺮﺳ ﺎﻫ

ﻞﻴﺼﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻲﻛﺍﺭﻮﺧ

،ﺎﻫ ﻲﻧﺪﻴﻣﺎﺷﺁ ﺎﻫ

ﺕﺎﻴﻧﺎﺧﺩ ﻭ ﺖﺷﺍﺪﻬﺑ

ﻥﺎﻣﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻦﻜﺴﻣ

ﻭ ﻡﺯﺍﻮﻟ ﻪﻴﺛﺎﺛﺍ ﻭ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻪﻗﺮﻔﺘﻣ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ

ﻞﻘﻧ

ﺵﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ 11279*

9446*

72072*

9105*

85077*

17341*

42083*

17575**

- *

ﻲﻨﻌﻣ**

ﺭﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻢﻛ ﺮﺗ ﺯﺍ 1 ) % 5 (%

. ﺬﺧﺎﻣ : ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻞﮕﻧﺍ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻤﻫ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ

ﺯﺍ ﺖـﺑﺎﺛ ﺕﺍﺮـﺛﺍ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺏﺎـﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻩﺭﺎـﻣﺁ

ﻱ ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ ﻭLR

ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻦﻣﺯﺎﻫ ﺷ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪ . ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺵﺎـﻌﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪـﺣ ﺎـﺑ ﻦﻜـﺴﻣ ﻩﻭﺮـﮔ ﺪـﻫﺩ

85077 ﻲﻛﺍﺭﻮﺧ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻭ

ﻲﻧﺪﻴﻣﺎﺷﺁ ،ﺎﻫ ﺵﺎـﻌﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪـﺣ ﺎﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻧﺎﺧﺩ ﻭ ﺎﻫ

72072 ﻦﻳﺮﺗﻻﺎـﺑ

ﻩﺩﺭ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺵﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺪﻧﺍ

. ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻌﺑ Ji

، ﻩﻭﺮـﮔ ﺮـﻫ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ

ﭘ ﺵﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺑﺎﻴﺘﺳﺩ ﺵﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺎﻳ ﻲﻟﻮ

، ﺯﺍ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎﻫ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻱ ﻩﻭﺮـﮔ

ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻮﺷ

ﺩ . ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻛﺫ ﻪﺑ ﻡﺯﻻ Ji

ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ qi

ﻲﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺲـﭘ ﻪـﻛ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

ﻞﻳﺪﺒﺗ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺵﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﻪﺑ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺪﺷ ﺏﺮﺿ ﻲﻣ

ﻮﺷ ﺩ.

Pi iJ ، ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺵﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﻭi

i i i

PJ

¦

ﺎﺧ ﻲﻟﻮـﭘ ﺵﺎـﻌﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪـﺣ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺎـﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧ

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺮﻬﺷ ﻫﺩ

ﻲﻣ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺮﻫ ﻚﻴﻜﻔﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ

) ﻝﻭﺪـﺟ 3 .(

ﻲﻣ ﻩﺪﻴﻣﺎﻧ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻲﻨﻫﺫ ﺮﻘﻓ ﻂﺧ ،ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺵﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﻞﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻛﺫ ﻪﺑ ﻡﺯﻻ ﺩﻮﺷ

. ) ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ 1 (

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 3 - ﻪﻧﻻﺎﺳ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺵﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ

ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺮﻬﺷ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ )

ﻝﺎﻳﺭ ﺭﺍﺰﻫ (

ﺡﺮﺷ ﻙﺎﺷﻮﭘ ﺕﻼﻴﺼﺤﺗ ﻙﺍﺭﻮﺧ

ﺖﺷﺍﺪﻬﺑ ﻦﻜﺴﻣ

ﻪﻴﺛﺎﺛﺍ ﻪﻗﺮﻔﺘﻣ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻞﻛ

1373 291 228 1221 119

1106 465

738 389

4557

1374 470 370 1968 158

1429 723

1069 568

6756

1375 633 461 2257 213

1931 853

1437 666

8452

1376 720 465 2572 270

2518 910

1707 754

9916

1377 757 493 3201 330

3037 973

1959 865

11614

1378 806 584 3919 410

3607 1117

2347 1096

13887

1379 876 633 4273 495

4279 1245

2680 1188

15671

1380 918 722 4579 571

5079 1288

2928 1271

17357

1381 955 774 5463 664

6074 1361

3242 1398

19932

1382 1029 859

6310 776

7197 1493

3697 1581

22943

1383 1128 945

7207 911

8508 1734

4208 1757

26398

1384 1223 1044 8000

1054 9495

1939 4682 1825

29260

1385 1325 1163 9038

1199 10771 2161

5328 1931

32916

1386 1520 1286 10997 1403

13051 2508

6212 2164

39141

ﺬﺧﺎﻣ : ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ

ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺵﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﻝﺎـﺳ

ﻱﺎـﻫ 86 - 73 ﻝﻭﺪـﺟ ﺭﺩ 3

ﻲـﻣ ﻩﺪﻫﺎـﺸﻣ ﻞـﺑﺎﻗ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ

.

ﻝﺎﺳ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺵﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ 1386

ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺮﻬﺷ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ

ﺎﻫ ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﻱ 1383

0 20000 40000 60000

1373 1374 1375 1376 1377 1378 1379 1380 1381 1382 1383 1384 1385 1386

ﻙﺎﺷﻮﭘ 4

% ﺕﻼﻴﺼﺤﺗ

3

%

ﻙﺍﺭﻮﺧ 28

%

ﺖﺷﺍﺪﻬﺑ 4 ﻦﻜﺴﻣ %

33

% ﻪﻴﺛﺎﺛﺍ

6

%

ﻪﻗﺮﻔﺘﻣ 16

%

ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ 6

%

ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ 39141117 ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻝﺎﻳﺭ

ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺎـﻫ ﻲﻛﺍﺭﻮـﺧ ﻭ ﻦﻜـﺴﻣ ﻱ ﻲﻧﺪﻴﻣﺎـﺷﺁ ،ﺎـﻫ

ﻭ ﺎـﻫ

ﺎﺑ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻧﺎﺧﺩ 3

/ 33 ﻭ 1 / 28 ﺪﺻﺭﺩ

، ﻪـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﻮـﭘ ﺵﺎـﻌﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪـﺣ ﺯﺍ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻦﻳﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺪﻧﺍ

. ) ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ 2 (

ﺬﺧﺎﻣ : ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ

1 - ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺮﻬﺷ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺮﻘﻓ ﻂﺧ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ )

ﻝﺎﻳﺭ ﺭﺍﺰﻫ (

ﺬﺧﺎﻣ : ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ

ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ 2 - ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺮﻬﺷ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺮﻘﻓ ﻂﺧ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ 1386

5 - 3 - ﺶﺸﻛ ﺎﻫ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺮﻬﺷ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻭ ﻊﻃﺎﻘﺘﻣ ،ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱ

ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ 5

ﺎﺗ 7 ﻲﻣ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺖﻴﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺮﻬﺷ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻨﻛ

ﺶﺠﻨﺳ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ

. ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ 4

ﻪﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ

ﺶﺸﻛ ﺎﻫ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻊﻃﺎﻘﺘﻣ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ،ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻱ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺮﻬﺷ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻨﻛ

1386 ﻩﺪـﻣﺁ

ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﻲﺟﺭﺎـﺨﻣ ﺶﺸﻛ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺪـﻫﺩ

ﻩﻭﺮـﮔ ﺎـﻫ ،ﺕﺎـﺤﻳﺮﻔﺗ ،ﺶـﻔﻛ ﻭ ﻙﺎـﺷﻮﭘ ﻱ

ﻲﻣﺮﮔﺮﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺲﻛﻮﻟ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻭ ﻥﺎﻣﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺖﺷﺍﺪﻬﺑ ،ﻞﻴﺼﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ

ﺎـﻫ ﻱ

ﺧ ﻲﻛﺍﺭﻮ ﻲﻧﺪﻴﻣﺎﺷﺁ ،ﺎﻫ ﻭ ﻡﺯﺍﻮـﻟ ﻭ ﻪـﻗﺮﻔﺘﻣ ﺕﺎﻣﺪـﺧ ﻭ ﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ،ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ،ﺕﺎﻴﻧﺎﺧﺩ ﻭ ﺎﻫ

ﻪـﻴﺛﺎﺛﺍ

ﻲﻣ ﺏﻮﺴﺤﻣ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ

. ﺶﺸﻛ ﺎﻫ ﻱﺩﻮﺧ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ

ﺎﻫ ﻞـﺤﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻱ

ﻲـﻣ ﺺﺨـﺸﻣ ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻥﺁ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻥﻮﺘﺳ ﻭ ﺮﻄﺳ ﻲﻗﻼﺗ ﻪـﻴﻘﺑ ﻭ ﺪﻧﻮـﺷ

ﻱ

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺻﺎﻨﻋ ﺶﺸﻛ

ﺎﻫ ﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻊﻃﺎﻘﺘﻣ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﻥ

ﺪـﻨﻫﺩ . ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻛﺎـﺣ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ

ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺎﻫ ﻱﺩﻮـﺧ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻄﺧ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺖﻴﻫﺎﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻨﺑ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﻱ

ﻢﻛ ﺮﺗ ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﺶﺸﻛ

ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﺖﻣﻼﻋ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻊﻃﺎﻘﺘﻣ ﻱ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 4 - ﺶﺸﻛ ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﻗ ﻴ ﺘﻤ ﻲ

، ﻊﻃﺎﻘﺘﻣ ﻭ ﺟﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻲ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻻﺎﻛ ﻲﻳ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﺳ 1386

ﺡﺮﺷ ﺶﺸﻛ

ﺟﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻲ ﺶﺸﻛ

ﻊﻃﺎﻘﺘﻣ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻙﺎﺷﻮﭘ ﺕﻼﻴﺼﺤﺗ ﻙﺍﺭﻮﺧ

ﺑ ﺖﺷﺍﺪﻬ ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﻪﻴﺛﺎﺛﺍ

ﻪﻗﺮﻔﺘﻣ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻭ ﻞﻘﻧ

ﻙﺎﺷﻮﭘ 1,18

0,68 - 0,02 - 0,01 - 0,03 - 0,01 - 0,02 - 0,01 - 0,03 -

ﺕﻼﻴﺼﺤﺗ 1,20

0,02 - 0,55 - 0,01 - 0,02 - 0,01 - 0,01 - 0,01 - 0,02 -

ﻙﺍﺭﻮﺧ 0,70

0,15 - 0,16 - 0,49 - 0,19 - 0,10 - 0,13 - 0,08 - 0,19 -

ﺖﺷﺍﺪﻬﺑ 1,48

0,02 - 0,02 - 0,01 - 0,82 - 0,01 - 0,02 - 0,01 - 0,02 -

ﻦﻜﺴﻣ 0,75

0,18 - 0,19 - 0,11 - 0,23 - 0,60 - 0,15 - 0,10 - 0,23 -

ﻪﻴﺛﺎﺛﺍ 0,96

0,04 - 0,04 - 0,02 - 0,04 - 0,02 - 0,43 - 0,02 - 0,04 -

ﻪﻗﺮﻔﺘﻣ 0,64

0,09 - 0,09 - 0,05 - 0,11 - 0,06 - 0,07 - 0,30 - 0,11 -

ﻞﻤﺣ ﻭ ﻞﻘﻧ 1,48 0,03 - 0,03 - 0,02 - 0,04 - 0,02 - 0,02 - 0,02 - 0,89 -

ﺬﺧﺎﻣ : ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ

5 - 4 - ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻄﺧ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻲﻫﺎﻓﺭ ﻱ

ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻝﺎﻤﻋﺍ ،ﻪﻧﺍﺭﺎﻳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺎﻳ ﻑﺬﺣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻲﻫﺎﻓﺭ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ

ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻙﻮﺷ ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﺎﻳ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻡﺯﻻ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻪـﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺃﺪﺒﻣ ﻚﻳ )

ﻱﺍﺮـﺟﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻞـﺒﻗ

ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻙﻮﺷ ﺩﻭﺭﻭ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺒﻗ ﺎﻳ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ (

ﻚﻳ ﻭ ﻪﻄﻘﻧ ﻱ ﻪﻳﻮﻧﺎﺛ ) ﺎـﻳ ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺍﺮـﺟﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺲـﭘ